Author Topic: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.  (Read 2831 times)

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Online vandermolen

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Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« on: May 23, 2007, 09:09:43 AM »
Do you think that Russia will ever extradite the man allegedly responsible for Litvinenko's murder? (presumably not)

What effect do you think this will all have on Anglo-Russian relations?

Any other thoughts?
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

bwv 1080

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2007, 09:33:06 AM »
Everyone believes Putin was behind it and no one expects him to be extradited for that reason.  As long as Europe needs Russia's natural resources they will make nice.

Offline Todd

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2007, 09:43:50 AM »
Do you think that Russia will ever extradite the man allegedly responsible for Litvinenko's murder?


Unless Russia gets something substantive in exchange, no, the accused will not be extradited.  There will be some acrimonious exchanges between the two governments, and maybe a non-binding resolution here or there may be issued, but what recourse does the UK or continental Europe have here?  Not a whole lot.  They need natural resources and Russia's got 'em.
The universe is change; life is opinion.   Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

Offline XB-70 Valkyrie

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2007, 07:47:00 PM »
Is it true that Putin is the Russian mafia's b*tch?
If you really dislike Bach you keep quiet about it! - Andras Schiff

bwv 1080

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2007, 06:04:01 AM »
Is it true that Putin is the Russian mafia's b*tch?

The other way around.


Offline Todd

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2007, 06:09:03 AM »
The other way around.


What?!  Putin?  The loveable ex-KGB man?  Nah.

The universe is change; life is opinion.   Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

looja

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2007, 12:49:27 PM »

Unless Russia gets something substantive in exchange, no, the accused will not be extradited.  There will be some acrimonious exchanges between the two governments, and maybe a non-binding resolution here or there may be issued, but what recourse does the UK or continental Europe have here?  Not a whole lot.  They need natural resources and Russia's got 'em.

Actually Europe in whole is not that dependent of Russia's resources, but some on the ex-soviet countries who are now in European Union are still pretty much dependent of Russia. But if Europe cuts all mercantile connections with Russia it's not only bad for Europe, it's also for Russia. Where will Russia get his money? A lot of money comes from selling oil and gas.They wouldn't wanna ruin  that.  And considering how crappy their economy is right now, they wouldn't want that to happen. Putin "tries" to show how strong Russia is but threatening to take commercial sanctions against some Union countries.(The Bronze Soldier affair) Actually Russia is far from ready for any kind of conflict against Europe. And Europes dependence of Russia is decreasing every year because they know this situation can't stay long and they are looking other ways to get the energy they need.

Offline Todd

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2007, 05:08:28 AM »
And Europes dependence of Russia is decreasing every year because they know this situation can't stay long and they are looking other ways to get the energy they need.



The deal between Russia and Germany to build a gas pipeline seems to indicate that Europe will become more dependent on Russia, not less.  While Europe does use multiple sources of natural gas, some western European countries acquire on the order of 20%-40% of their gas from Russia.  That's a high level of dependency, and it gives Russia enormous bargaining power.  While its true that Russian leaders won't destroy themselves economically pursuing an overly aggressive policy, and that it cannot withstand a "conflict" (by which I assume you mean bureaucratic rangling) with a united Europe, Russia has proven adept at fracturing the nations and pursuing different policies with different nations.  Beyond that, to a much greater degree than other countries, Russia merges political and economic decisions and will most likely absorb a short term hit on gas sales to Europe, which will be off-set slightly by open market oil sales, to win political points.  When (and if, though it seems likely) Putin becomes head of Gazprom when he steps down as president, Russia will most likely become even more assertive in its energy policy.  Maybe "Europe" can strike up a deal with Qatar or Iran or Kazakhstan to get more gas from those nations in the meantime.
The universe is change; life is opinion.   Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

looja

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2007, 10:54:37 AM »


The deal between Russia and Germany to build a gas pipeline seems to indicate that Europe will become more dependent on Russia, not less.  While Europe does use multiple sources of natural gas, some western European countries acquire on the order of 20%-40% of their gas from Russia.  That's a high level of dependency, and it gives Russia enormous bargaining power.  While its true that Russian leaders won't destroy themselves economically pursuing an overly aggressive policy, and that it cannot withstand a "conflict" (by which I assume you mean bureaucratic rangling) with a united Europe, Russia has proven adept at fracturing the nations and pursuing different policies with different nations.  Beyond that, to a much greater degree than other countries, Russia merges political and economic decisions and will most likely absorb a short term hit on gas sales to Europe, which will be off-set slightly by open market oil sales, to win political points.  When (and if, though it seems likely) Putin becomes head of Gazprom when he steps down as president, Russia will most likely become even more assertive in its energy policy.  Maybe "Europe" can strike up a deal with Qatar or Iran or Kazakhstan to get more gas from those nations in the meantime.

I am not really sure if Europe becomes more dependent of Russia because of the pipeline. I think the deal was made when relations were good but they have turned worse recently and the gas issue has slowed down. Indeed the energy Europe gets from Russia is the only thing why Europe is considering any compromise with Russia otherwise they would just cut any connections. I recently watched a documental where it turned out that Russia is also dependent of various Asian countries... I wouldn't give too much power for Russia to bargain with Europe. ::)

Offline Archaic Torso of Apollo

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2007, 12:02:08 AM »
a view from Moscow

Everyone believes Putin was behind it

I don't. On the list of plausible suspects, I would put Putin close to the bottom. I think it's far more likely that this is either an operation by rogue FSB elements, or a business deal that went wrong.

For a good rundown on the various theories behind this murky case, I recommend the article below. It's by Matt Taibbi, who used to write for Moscow's notorious alternative paper, The eXile:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/12674479/the_low_post_deadly_sushi_the_worlds_first_act_of_nuclear_terrorism
formerly VELIMIR (before that, Spitvalve)

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Offline Turner

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2018, 12:05:19 AM »
Concerning the newest case, Skripal, I thought it would be interesting to check out what Navalny says. He considers the likely measures taken by the UK (banning RT, boycot of World Soccer Cup, increase NATO cooperation and support for the Ukraine, etc.) to be also what the Kremlin would prefer, since it will strengthen Russian propaganda and a nationalist agenda.

He suggests hitting Russian oligarch and corruption bases in the UK in stead, but doesn´t discuss the legal aspects of hitting sectors not really involved in the Skripal case. He says that such measures would also be more popular among the opposition in Russia.

I used Google translate for this https://t.me/navalny/254

Most commentators in the West consider any anti-oligarch & anti-corruption measures less likely too.

A subject that has come up in these last hours is that of some sort of British cyber retaliation, but the content isn´t known. An exposure of some sort for the public to see would be very interesting, but risky.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 12:19:03 AM by Turner »

Online vandermolen

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2018, 02:40:29 AM »
Concerning the newest case, Skripal, I thought it would be interesting to check out what Navalny says. He considers the likely measures taken by the UK (banning RT, boycot of World Soccer Cup, increase NATO cooperation and support for the Ukraine, etc.) to be also what the Kremlin would prefer, since it will strengthen Russian propaganda and a nationalist agenda.

He suggests hitting Russian oligarch and corruption bases in the UK in stead, but doesn´t discuss the legal aspects of hitting sectors not really involved in the Skripal case. He says that such measures would also be more popular among the opposition in Russia.

I used Google translate for this https://t.me/navalny/254

Most commentators in the West consider any anti-oligarch & anti-corruption measures less likely too.

A subject that has come up in these last hours is that of some sort of British cyber retaliation, but the content isn´t known. An exposure of some sort for the public to see would be very interesting, but risky.

Thanks for this interesting observation. What happened in Salisbury is highly disturbing. Forgotten I'd started this thread eleven years ago. As a matter of interest I'd be interested to hear from our US friends here what kind of coverage this is getting in the U.S. And also elsewhere in Europe etc. The American response is interesting - support for the UK but, as yet, no criticism of Putin.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

Offline Turner

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 02:57:44 AM »
(if there´s a problem with a depart from the thread´s original subject, of course I don´t mind my comments being removed)

From what I´ve heard Tillerson and the EU now explicitly take side with Britain, but Trump doesn´t comment on the case.

And Lavrov says that Russia wants samples of the poison before commenting. I don´t know if his remark about an international treaty saying that this should take place in case of accusations and that the usual, permitted response time is 10 days are true.

EDIT: Of course, they haven´t been cooperative so far, even accusing the West of being the perpetrator, and they will most probably just muddy the waters further.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 03:03:41 AM by Turner »

Online vandermolen

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 03:00:31 AM »
(if there´s a problem with a depart from the thread´s original subject, of course I don´t mind my comments being removed)

From what I´ve heard from the US, Tillerson and the EU now explicitly take side with Britain, but Trump doesn´t comment on the case.

And Lavrov says that Russia wants samples of the poison before commenting. I don´t know if his remark about an international covention saying that this should take place in case of accusations and that the usual, permitted response time is 10 days are true.
There is a fairly clear link I think between this case and that of Litvinenko so I am happy for comments to be posted here as far as I'm concerned.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

Offline Turner

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 05:06:49 AM »
For the record:

Tillerson has now been fired by Trump. It was announced a few hours afterwards.

Reportedly he was fired on Friday, and his remarks were made with that knowledge too.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 05:09:09 AM by Turner »

Online vandermolen

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 06:40:23 AM »
For the record:

Tillerson has now been fired by Trump. It was announced a few hours afterwards.

Reportedly he was fired on Friday, and his remarks were made with that knowledge too.

Yes, I've just picked that up too. Trump now a bit more outspoken about Russian involvement.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

Offline Turner

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2018, 03:10:08 AM »
Looking at the Twitter Skripal pages, there´s been an incredible number of troll posts with obvious relations to Russia, including some with poor grammar & posting patterns related to working hours in Russia - the whole offensive and argumentation unthinkable without their propaganda machine. They are surely going all in.

At least 15-20 often crazy theories about conspiracies have been presented there, muddying the picture. Of course, it´s a complicated, ongoing investigation, but more openness about the finds and the research from British authorities would reduce the amount of doubt, that to some extent is entering among the general public now.

The arrival of international experts tomorrow from the OPCW organization might provide more information.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2018, 04:18:00 AM by Turner »

Offline Turner

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2018, 11:51:16 PM »

(...)
And Lavrov says that Russia wants samples of the poison before commenting. I don´t know if his remark about an international treaty saying that this should take place in case of accusations and that the usual, permitted response time is 10 days are true.

EDIT: Of course, they haven´t been cooperative so far, even accusing the West of being the perpetrator, and they will most probably just muddy the waters further.

"Russia has ‘no right’ to see nerve agent samples"
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43510802

Offline Florestan

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2018, 12:14:02 AM »
Jacinda Ardern, prime-minister of New Zealand: There are no Russian spies in New Zealand.

Justin Trudeau is surely relieved: he's not anymore Western world's stupidest prime-minister in office.  ;D
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Online vandermolen

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Re: Alexander Litvinenko murder in London.
« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2018, 05:10:30 AM »
Jacinda Ardern, prime-minister of New Zealand: There are no Russian spies in New Zealand.

Justin Trudeau is surely relieved: he's not anymore Western world's stupidest prime-minister in office.  ;D

Very funny!
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).