Author Topic: Brexit Negotiations.  (Read 69512 times)

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Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1080 on: August 05, 2019, 10:49:27 AM »
The UK could theoretically rejoin the EU at some future date.

It's more than theorical, but it might take a while...  :)


Anyway, I found a Cambridge Law professor to shed some light on the issue:

David Howarth explains what procedures could be used [...], if politicians are determined to stop no deal.

Still sounds terribly complicated and risky...
Parliament woukd have to be very determined and united...
And the current bunch are neither...  ::)

Q
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 10:50:58 AM by Que »

Offline vandermolen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1081 on: August 05, 2019, 11:30:22 PM »
It's more than theorical, but it might take a while...  :)


Anyway, I found a Cambridge Law professor to shed some light on the issue:

David Howarth explains what procedures could be used [...], if politicians are determined to stop no deal.

Still sounds terribly complicated and risky...
Parliament woukd have to be very determined and united...
And the current bunch are neither...  ::)

Q
Sadly true!
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

Offline Marc

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1082 on: August 07, 2019, 02:49:49 AM »
Luckilly for clown Boris and a probable 'no deal Brexit': he still has got clown Donald Trump, who promises the UK 'big deals'.
All those big deals, of course, very big and good for the 'America First' politics.

How nice and honourable. The UK can become the USA's clown... for decades to come?

If so… well, that certainly would make those Brexiteering Britons proud.

Clowns.
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Offline Florestan

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1083 on: August 07, 2019, 02:56:06 AM »
Luckilly for clown Boris and a probable 'no deal Brexit': he still has got clown Donald Trump, who promises the UK 'big deals'.
All those big deals, of course, very big and good for the 'America First' politics.

How nice and honourable. The UK can become the USA's clown... for decades to come?


Wouldn't that be the final revenge the former colonies would take on the former metropole?  ;D

And if so, would it be too far-fetched to predict a London Tea Party some time in the future?  :laugh:
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Offline Marc

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1084 on: August 07, 2019, 03:08:08 AM »
Wouldn't that be the final revenge the former colonies would take on the former metropole?  ;D

And if so, would it be too far-fetched to predict a London Tea Party some time in the future?  :laugh:

I always thought London had been a Tea Party for ages already. (Raises his pink and sips his Earl Grey.)
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Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1085 on: August 09, 2019, 09:24:59 AM »
A blog post by a moderate leaver - the kind that would have preferred to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA).

On his blog he has frequently pointed out that the average Brexiteer has no clue whatsoever what (s)he is talking about.

At this moment he thinks no deal id better than no Brexit at all:

Why it now has to be no deal

But... he also points out that remainers share responsibity for the current situation by rejecting May's negotiated deal.

I think he has a point there...  Why did Labour vote against the negotiated deal again?  ::)

Q



Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1086 on: August 09, 2019, 09:41:11 AM »
Read the fine print!  8)





Q

Offline vandermolen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1087 on: August 09, 2019, 11:08:23 PM »
Read the fine print!  8)





Q

Funny and sadly true.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

Offline Pat B

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1088 on: August 12, 2019, 04:02:45 PM »
A blog post by a moderate leaver - the kind that would have preferred to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA).

On his blog he has frequently pointed out that the average Brexiteer has no clue whatsoever what (s)he is talking about.

At this moment he thinks no deal id better than no Brexit at all:

Why it now has to be no deal

But... he also points out that remainers share responsibity for the current situation by rejecting May's negotiated deal.

I think he has a point there...  Why did Labour vote against the negotiated deal again?  ::)

I try to limit myself to lurking on the political threads here but cannot resist this one.

In theory, soft Brexit should be less bad than hard Brexit. In practice, May’s deal might have given the UK the worst aspects of all options and further reduced their leverage. That’s a pretty good reason for any MP to have opposed it.

Taking an occasional swipe at Jacob Rees-Mogg does not make someone a moderate. Genuine moderates don’t say things like "Brexit is, to a very large extent, a binary estimation. In or out. We voted out.” North’s entire post is little more than an exercise in blaming Remainers for the consequences of a policy he supported and they opposed.

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1089 on: August 12, 2019, 08:59:03 PM »
In theory, soft Brexit should be less bad than hard Brexit. In practice, May’s deal might have given the UK the worst aspects of all options and further reduced their leverage. That’s a pretty good reason for any MP to have opposed it.

I'm not so sure. "May's deal" was nothing more than an exit agreement on citizens's right, a financial settlement and the guarantee on future economic alignment of NI with the single market. It did however, on request of the UK and to appease the DUP, "lock" in the rest of the UK with NI in a customs union with the EU. Whether this is a good or a bad thing, depends on what kind of Brexit you prefer. In a soft Brexit scenario the UK could be in a customs union with the EU anyway....
Since Labour was (is) in favour of a customs union with the EU, I see no reason per se to reject the deal as it did. Corbyn voted against to deny the Tories control over the next step -  the negotiations on the future relationship. By doing do, he missed his chance to avoid a hard Brexit (for now).

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Taking an occasional swipe at Jacob Rees-Mogg does not make someone a moderate. Genuine moderates don’t say things like "Brexit is, to a very large extent, a binary estimation. In or out. We voted out.” North’s entire post is little more than an exercise in blaming Remainers for the consequences of a policy he supported and they opposed.

True. I dubbed him a "moderate" because, till now, he has been consistently in favour of a "soft" Brexit.
But it seems the whole issue has been polarised and reduced to a binary option between remaining in the EU and a hard Brexit. Looking at the referendum result, a (very) soft Brexit was the most logical option. But the British political system has been unable to deliver such a compromise.

Q
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 09:18:48 AM by Que »

Offline Marc

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Offline Pat B

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1091 on: August 13, 2019, 08:10:01 AM »
I'm not so sure. "May's deal" was nothing more than an exit agreement on citizens's right, a financial settlement and the guarantee on future economic alignment of NI with the single market. It did hower, on request of the UK and to appease the DUP, "lock" in the rest of the UK with NI in a customs union with the EU. Whether this is a good or a bad thing, depends on what kind of Brexit you prefer. In a soft Brexit scenario the UK could be in a customs union with the EU anyway....
Since Labour was (is) in favour of a customs union with the EU, I see no reason per se to reject the deal as it did. Corbyn voted against to deny the Tories control over the next step -  the negotiations on the future relationship. By doing do, he missed his chance to avoid a hard Brexit (for now).

The Withdrawal Agreement kept the UK in a customs union only during the transition period. After that it would be whatever the government negotiated. Since the Tories overwhelmingly opposed three different customs union proposals (Labour’s, Ken Clarke’s, and Norway+), it would have been risky for Labour to assume that any Conservative government would even attempt such an arrangement for the long term.

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1092 on: August 13, 2019, 09:25:28 AM »
The Withdrawal Agreement kept the UK in a customs union only during the transition period. After that it would be whatever the government negotiated. Since the Tories overwhelmingly opposed three different customs union proposals (Labour’s, Ken Clarke’s, and Norway+), it would have been risky for Labour to assume that any Conservative government would even attempt such an arrangement for the long term.

Good point.  :)
I somehow remembered the customs union linked to the (permanent) backstop, but you are quite right:: it was to be a temporary arrangement.

Q
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 09:03:07 PM by Que »

Offline Que

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« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 11:17:22 AM by Que »

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1094 on: August 20, 2019, 09:39:11 PM »

Offline pjme

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1095 on: August 21, 2019, 12:22:34 AM »
Brexit is frightening, but this made me smile:


Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1096 on: September 13, 2019, 11:21:42 PM »
So, Johnson has a plan B to prevent having to ask for a delay: signing off on the deal May negotiated but with an Northern Ireland-only backstop, as originally proposed by the EU.

Even the DUP seems now to be wavering, realising that if they stand in the way of a deal they will commit electoral suicide because of the dire consequences of a no deal Brexit for NI...

And Johnson has no other option. Breaking his promise the leave the EU would cost him the elections. But so will his alienation of moderate Conservatives... An orderly exit with a deal will create the opportunity to mend his relationship with the Tory rebels. I predict that they will be taken back into the party before the elections. Moderate Tory voters might switch back from the LibDems and Johnson will have his landsslide assured.

At least, this seems to be the plan.....

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Boris Johnson plans to force through Brexit deal in 10-day blitz Brussels talks show signs of progress over contentious Irish backstop (Financial Times)

Boris Johnson is planning to force a new Brexit deal through parliament in just 10 days — including holding late-night and weekend sittings — in a further sign of Downing Street’s determination to negotiate an orderly exit from the EU.

According to Number 10 officials, Mr Johnson’s team has drawn up detailed plans under which the prime minister would secure a deal with the EU at a Brussels summit on October 17-18, before pushing the new withdrawal deal through parliament at breakneck speed.

The pound rose 1.1 per cent against the US dollar to $1.247 on Friday amid growing optimism that Mr Johnson has now decisively shifted away from the prospect of a no-deal exit and is focused on a compromise largely based on Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.

Officials in Dublin and Brussels say there are signs of movement from Mr Johnson as he searches for a compromise on the Irish backstop, the contentious insurance policy against a return to a hard border in Ireland, although both sides remain far apart. EU diplomats said that talks on Friday in Brussels between the European Commission and UK negotiators had been more productive than previous meetings.

An EU diplomatic note said that Britain seemed willing to stick with some of what had been agreed by Mrs May to prevent animal health checks at the Irish border, and so keep food and livestock moving freely on the island. The UK is even “considering” keeping Northern Ireland aligned with future EU rule changes, according to the note. Diplomats cautioned, however, that important points remained unresolved, and that this would be only part of the solution for avoiding a hard Irish border. Britain has also yet to make written proposals and EU officials are worried about the lack of time left to secure any new agreement before the UK’s scheduled departure date of October 31.

On Monday, Mr Johnson will travel to Luxembourg to meet European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss the prospects for a deal — their first meeting since the Tory leader entered Downing Street in July. Meanwhile Tory chief whip Mark Spencer has told hardline Eurosceptic rebels they will be thrown out of the party if they reject any deal Mr Johnson negotiates in Brussels. Let’s hope that this is a sign that the time of British Brexit wish-wash is finally coming to an end and that Number 10 is seriously interested in finding a solution EU diplomat At the same time Mr Johnson is trying to charm some hardliners, inviting Eurosceptic MPs to Chequers, his country retreat, for drinks on Friday night.

One MP appeared resigned to backing Mr Johnson if he secured a compromise deal: “He hasn’t really got anywhere else to go. Let’s see what he gets in Brussels.” Nikki da Costa, the prime minister’s head of legislative affairs, has told colleagues she is confident that if a deal emerges from the next European Council, it could be passed into law before October 31. “Nikki has told us she has a plan to pass a Brexit deal in 10 days flat,” said one senior government official. “Parliament might be sitting every day and night, including the weekend, but she is confident we can leave on October 31 with a deal.” “It is technically possible to get the necessary legislation through in around 10 days — we have just seen MPs pass a bill in one day in the Commons,” said Maddy Thimont Jack, from the Institute for Government think-tank. She added, however, that “rushing it through in this way means little time for proper scrutiny”.

At their meeting on Monday, Mr Juncker is expected to push Mr Johnson to come forward with a detailed Brexit proposal, warning that time is short and that any solution must protect the all-Ireland economy and the EU’s single market. Recommended Bronwen Maddox Brexit threatens to reopen old wounds in Northern Ireland “Let’s hope that this is a sign that the time of British Brexit wish-wash is finally coming to an end and that Number 10 is seriously interested in finding a solution,” said one EU diplomat.

Many in Brussels are convinced that the only solution lies in returning to a “Northern Ireland-only” version of the backstop, an idea proposed by the EU in early 2018 but rejected by Mrs May. That plan would scrap the alternative all-UK customs union with the EU which was rejected three times by MPs, and would require checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea. Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionist party which supports the Tory government, described as “nonsense” suggestions she would be prepared to accept a border in the Irish Sea, but the party is nevertheless engaging in a search for a compromise.

Q

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1097 on: September 13, 2019, 11:25:33 PM »
Yes I heard an interview with someone from the Irish government a couple of days ago where they were being very positive about that proposal, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it was on the cards.

If BJ asked for an extension without having a new proposal, would the EU reject him?
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Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1098 on: September 13, 2019, 11:36:15 PM »
If BJ asked for an extension without having a new proposal, would the EU reject him?

Of course, the EU wants to get rid of the issue right now. New elections are no guarantee that the deadlock could be lifted, that might even require a 2nd referendum. But ultimately the EU wouldn't refuse an extension if there will be elections, not even the French would veto.

A possible twist could be that the EU might only offer a very long extension, also known a the "time out". That could even be as long as the 3,5 years to the next European elections.

Boris will want to avoid that scenario, because a delay as long as that will inevitably lead to the UK remaining in the EU.

Q

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #1099 on: September 14, 2019, 01:09:56 AM »
If anyone comes across a good journal or paper covering the recent turbulent events, please let me know and I’ll buy it. 
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen