Author Topic: Brexit Negotiations.  (Read 69576 times)

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Offline drogulus

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #520 on: May 28, 2018, 10:07:55 AM »

     In Britain, Austerity Is Changing Everything

     Perhaps the link to Brexit has been made, but it seems that since Britain isn't subject to fiscal strangulation like Greece, Brits must do it themselves.
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Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #521 on: May 28, 2018, 10:30:08 AM »
     In Britain, Austerity Is Changing Everything

     Perhaps the link to Brexit has been made, but it seems that since Britain isn't subject to fiscal strangulation like Greece, Brits must do it themselves.

The link to Brexit is that the referendum campaign was an exercise in persuading as many people as possible to blame "Brussels" for the problems mentioned in the article. It's abundantly clear that these are problems caused in Westminster, but unfortunately just enough people swallowed the Brexiters' crap and they got over the line. Ironically, many of the most hardline Brexiters are also the most enthusiastic supporters of Thatcherite/neoliberal economics in general and austerity in particular. So in persuading people to vote for Brexit they also managed to deflect the blame for the consequences of their own policies. And when Brexit goes tits up that will be spun as the EU's fault as well.

Offline drogulus

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #522 on: May 28, 2018, 11:25:25 AM »
The link to Brexit is that the referendum campaign was an exercise in persuading as many people as possible to blame "Brussels" for the problems mentioned in the article. It's abundantly clear that these are problems caused in Westminster, but unfortunately just enough people swallowed the Brexiters' crap and they got over the line. Ironically, many of the most hardline Brexiters are also the most enthusiastic supporters of Thatcherite/neoliberal economics in general and austerity in particular. So in persuading people to vote for Brexit they also managed to deflect the blame for the consequences of their own policies. And when Brexit goes tits up that will be spun as the EU's fault as well.

    That's pretty much how I interpret it. First you get austere economics, then smash the system politics, more austerity because budgets are more important than economic well being, and on and on.
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Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #523 on: May 28, 2018, 01:55:57 PM »
    That's pretty much how I interpret it. First you get austere economics, then smash the system politics, more austerity because budgets are more important than economic well being, and on and on.

On top of that you also have a UK media landscape which has been utterly dominated by the right for decades. Most of the printed press is rabidly right wing, and because they've largely succeeded in setting the agenda, the broadcasters  - which are supposed to be neutral - have largely followed that agenda, at least in terms of the issues that do and don't get much coverage. Labour under Blair got in largely because they made it clear they wouldn't rock the boat. So, we got some welcome measures like the minimum wage but also a continuation of the outsourcing of public services to corporate charlatans and the fundamental tenets of Thatcherism were left undisturbed. As a result it was easy for Cameron and Osborne to get rid of what bits of progress were made under Blair.

Now for the first time in decades we've got a major party leader, Corbyn, who is not willing to go along with this Thatcherite consensus. The media reaction has been entirely predictable, with one hysterical attempt at character assassination after another and shameless double standards in the reporting of policy: Corbyn says the government should invest to grow the economy, so we get a chorus of "but how will he pay for it?" - not a question that gets asked with so much urgency when the Tories give away truckloads of cash in tax cuts for corporations and wealthy individuals. This mendacious nonsense masquerading as journalism is now so normalised that we have parts of England which have never recovered from the devastating impact of Thatcherism now voting for the same party that screwed them in the first place because of Brexit, in the belief that Brexit will provide a refuge from globalisation - even though the leading Tory Brexiteers want Brexit precisely in order to give us neoliberalism on steroids. I think we can safely say this will not end well.       

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #524 on: May 28, 2018, 08:52:19 PM »
I think we can safely say this will not end well.     

That looks increasingly likely....

I have been wondering what the EU could do to avoid the whole thing going of the cliff. Which would be devastating for the UK, very damaging for the EU (notably Ireland, Danmark, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium) and hurtful for a future relationship.

Apart from giving in to blackmail, buying time and hoping for a domestic political shift seems the best option.
The best situation would be if the UK signs a transition deal along the lines, including the NI backstop, that were agreed upon last December. Next option would be an extention of the negotiations. The problem with that is that is likely to continue the political deadlock in the UK. It would be a huge gamble. But then again, there is little to lose compared to the alternative....

Q

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #525 on: May 28, 2018, 09:20:41 PM »
A classic "Dolchstoßlegende" - a myth on backstabbing treachery:


It’s time to challenge the conduct of some civil servants over Brexit (Brexit Central).

Potentially powerful and dangerous stuff.... If I were a (higher ranking) British civil servant, I would be looking for employment elsewhere... ::)

Q
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 09:25:03 PM by Que »

Offline ahinton

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #526 on: May 28, 2018, 10:56:30 PM »
A classic "Dolchstoßlegende" - a myth on backstabbing treachery:


It’s time to challenge the conduct of some civil servants over Brexit (Brexit Central).

Potentially powerful and dangerous stuff.... If I were a (higher ranking) British civil servant, I would be looking for employment elsewhere.
But presumably not in Italy...

On top of all the mess that the UK government has gotten UK into over "Brexit", just how embarrassing will it be if, by the close of the so-called "transition period" and after spending vast sums on "Brexit", there will no longer be an EU from which to "Brexit"?...

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #527 on: May 29, 2018, 03:50:36 AM »
That looks increasingly likely....

I have been wondering what the EU could do to avoid the whole thing going of the cliff. Which would be devastating for the UK, very damaging for the EU (notably Ireland, Danmark, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium) and hurtful for a future relationship.

Apart from giving in to blackmail, buying time and hoping for a domestic political shift seems the best option.
The best situation would be if the UK signs a transition deal along the lines, including the NI backstop, that were agreed upon last December. Next option would be an extention of the negotiations. The problem with that is that is likely to continue the political deadlock in the UK. It would be a huge gamble. But then again, there is little to lose compared to the alternative....

Q

As damaging as a no deal Brexit would be, I'm starting to wonder if it's the only thing that will provoke an outbreak of rationality. If we get a hard Brexit and the disastrous impact is felt quickly, it's more likely that the public will associate that impact with Brexit than a scenario in which we get some kind of deal which is pretty poor and ends up doing similar damage, but over a longer period of time and much more gradually. The latter would be the frog in boiling water scenario.

There is the obvious risk I mentioned before: that a disastrous impact which happens quickly would be blamed on the EU. But we'd just have to hope that enough people, especially leave voters, would see through that and pin at least some of the blame on Brexit itself. The alternative is little better: if we get anything less than the hardest of hard Brexits, we'll be told that any adverse effects are due to not getting a sufficiently hard Brexit, and if only we'd gone for the Farage/Rees-Mogg option then everything would be fine. 

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #528 on: May 29, 2018, 09:32:03 PM »
But presumably not in Italy...

On top of all the mess that the UK government has gotten UK into over "Brexit", just how embarrassing will it be if, by the close of the so-called "transition period" and after spending vast sums on "Brexit", there will no longer be an EU from which to "Brexit"?...

I wouldn't count my chicken before they are hatched..... :D

Contrary to the UK, almost nobody in Italy really wants to leave the EU....

These populist parties (kind of) want to leave the euro, so they can spend themselves blind while already sitting on the 2nd largest debt in Europe (after Greece). Extra spending is however unlikely to help much, since Italy has failed to reform its economy.
Leaving the euro is theoretically possible, and it wouldn't necessarily lead to a collapse of the euro. What it definitely would do, is an immediate abondoning of Italy by the financial markets and a subsequent collapse of its economy. Nobody is going to lend Italy all that money to spend flush down the toilet after it has left the euro.

The idea of European Union falling apart is probably wishful thinking....  8)
Sofar in its history, every crisis in the EU was a trigger for further reform and strengthing of integration.

This time a reform of the eurozone and debt restructuring are on the table.... The need of reform has been opposed by southern member states, and Germany has sofar blocked any restructuring of debt. The Italian crisis might trigger both....and the EU could come out stronger....

Never waste a good crisis... ;)

https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/stelter-in-den-medien/will-italy-spell-the-end-of-the-euro/

Q
« Last Edit: May 30, 2018, 08:04:30 PM by Que »

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #529 on: June 01, 2018, 11:34:02 PM »
History tells us that you've reached a turning point when paranoia sets in:

THE SUN SAYS A global plot to destroy Brexit must be fought by Government and all MPs to defend our democracy

Warning: the links takes you to a British tabloid, pursue at your own risk

Q

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #530 on: June 02, 2018, 03:28:03 AM »
History tells us that you've reached a turning point when paranoia sets in:

THE SUN SAYS A global plot to destroy Brexit must be fought by Government and all MPs to defend our democracy

Warning: the links takes you to a British tabloid, pursue at your own risk

Q

I particularly enjoyed a paper owned by Rupert Murdoch complaining about a rich foreigner meddling in British politics.

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #531 on: June 02, 2018, 03:05:27 PM »
A peach of an article here about a frustrated Tory donor who wants to replace May with Gove:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/02/replace-theresa-may-with-michael-gove-tory-donor-says-brexit-uk-news


This bit is a cracker:

Quote
Odey, whose most recent donation to the Conservative party was a £50,000 gift before last year’s general election, said the government needed to be far bolder in its attitude to Brussels. It should be learning from the new Italian populist coalition government, which has plans that would defy EU rules on debt, he said, suggesting that Britain should start breaching EU rules by pursuing policies such as signing trade deals. He also backed a change in leadership.

“We’ve got to have that self-confidence to make breaches,” he told the Observer. “There’s no point in voting for freedom if you don’t know what to do when you’re free."

So acting illegally is "self-confidence". This is terrific news: if I am ever accused of breaking the law, I shall inform the arresting officer that I am merely showing the self-confidence to strike out in a new direction of my own choosing.

This bit is almost as good:

Quote
“We should say, ‘we’ve got to have life after this, so we’re creating that life. We are creating trade agreements which are in breach of everything, because we won’t be in breach by the time you come to take us to court’. That’s how Elizabeth I would have been leading with this.”

Wise words indeed. Because when you're trying to work out how to conduct complex negotiations in the 21st century, the first test you should apply is to ask yourself what an absolute monarch who died over four centuries ago would do. 
« Last Edit: June 03, 2018, 05:29:21 AM by Mr. Minnow »

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #532 on: June 06, 2018, 04:18:04 PM »
Interesting article here on Labour's Brexit policy:

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/06/06/ok-so-what-the-bloody-hell-is-labour-s-brexit-policy-now

I can well believe that right wing Labour MPs like Caroline Flint would have scuppered any chance of the EEA amendment passing while letting Corbyn take the flak for it. There were apparently quite a few MPs at a recent PLP meeting saying they wouldn't vote for the EEA, though that was not widely reported.

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #533 on: June 07, 2018, 09:46:30 PM »
While the UK is on the verge of a political "Brexit meltdown", the Germans offer a reprieve:

Wolfgang Schäuble: EU ‘ready to’ give UK more time on Brexit

Europe will do ‘whatever we can’ to have close relations with Britain post-Brexit, Germany’s former finance minister says.



It is a very generous offer, I would take it..... ::)

Q

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #534 on: June 08, 2018, 09:11:24 AM »
While the UK is on the verge of a political "Brexit meltdown", the Germans offer a reprieve:

Wolfgang Schäuble: EU ‘ready to’ give UK more time on Brexit

Europe will do ‘whatever we can’ to have close relations with Britain post-Brexit, Germany’s former finance minister says.



It is a very generous offer, I would take it..... ::)

Q

We have a foreign secretary who thinks we should take a leaf out of Donald Trump's book in our approach to Brexit. I wouldn't bet on the UK doing much that is sensible. Though May might be grateful if the EU offered more time, since she appears to be a big fan of kicking crunch decisions down the road, and she's currently fast running out of road.

Brexit ultra Peter Bone on last night's Newsnight:

"We should just stop the negotiations and go to WTO terms, and we wouldn't have to put up a border in Northern Ireland."

It was then pointed out to him by Evan Davis (Newsnight presenter) that WTO terms require a border.

"No, they just require sincere cooperation."

Davis tried to correct him but Bone was on a roll:

"So, the legal situation.....oh I don't care, let's just come out."

So his solution is to stop negotiations and revert to WTO rules, while breaking WTO rules.

I know it's tempting to dismiss Bone as a lunatic, and so he is, but these people now wield huge influence in the Tory party. It can therefore be no surprise to anyone that Brexit is such a fiasco.

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #535 on: June 08, 2018, 11:07:31 PM »
While the Brexit process is descending into chaos, time for a more humorous approach...  ;)


Donald Trump does Brexit — it’s HUGE


Q

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #536 on: June 09, 2018, 03:49:49 AM »
While the Brexit process is descending into chaos, time for a more humorous approach...  ;)


Donald Trump does Brexit — it’s HUGE


Q

We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.

Offline vandermolen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #537 on: June 09, 2018, 06:03:28 AM »
We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.
Churchill wouldn't have held the stupid referendum in the first place!
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #538 on: June 09, 2018, 09:44:44 PM »
Churchill wouldn't have held the stupid referendum in the first place!

From what I've read on his opinions on democracy: indeed, he would have been strongly against it. :)

We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.

You're right, the whole situation is not funny. A lot of people, including many politicians, are completely clueless....

In the hope to cheer you up: I think a hard brexit is unlikely for the simple reason that it doesn't carry a majority - not in public opinion, not in parliament and not even in the Conservative party....

The best reflection of the referendum result - and probably current public sentiment as well - would be a (very) soft Brexit (customs union + internal market = "Norway plus").

The problem is that May's government will be unable to deliver that. And due to Corbyn, there might insufficient support in parliament to force her hand...

My prediction will be the collapse of the Tory govt and new general elections, on which occasion the EU will offer an extension of negotiations. Another option would a 2nd referendum, which would offer eurosceptic Corbyn a chance to wash his hands of the whole issue.... ::)

Q

Offline drogulus

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #539 on: June 10, 2018, 12:56:12 PM »

     How a Journalist Kept Russia’s Secret Links to Brexit Under Wraps

Leading Brexit campaigners have pulled out of a grilling by MPs after claiming they were being targeted in a "co-ordinated witch hunt" of Leave groups.

Arron Banks, a major funder of Leave.EU, and colleague Andy Wigmore had been due to appear before the influential Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee as part of its fake news inquiry, which is looking at the use of targeted online advertising.

However the pair dramatically pulled out of giving evidence on June 20 over their concerns and warned that the committee "comprises of only Remain supporting MPs".



     This sounds familiar to me. Why do people doing deals with Russians for politics or money or both all say the same thing? Why aren't they proud of what they have done and tell us what happened in all the meetings they held, who paid and who got paid and what for? Why is everyone involved in what will one day be BrexiPutin so shy?
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