Author Topic: Brexit Negotiations.  (Read 22365 times)

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Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #540 on: June 11, 2018, 02:57:53 AM »
You're right, the whole situation is not funny. A lot of people, including many politicians, are completely clueless....

In the hope to cheer you up: I think a hard brexit is unlikely for the simple reason that it doesn't carry a majority - not in public opinion, not in parliament and not even in the Conservative party....

The best reflection of the referendum result - and probably current public sentiment as well - would be a (very) soft Brexit (customs union + internal market = "Norway plus").

The problem is that May's government will be unable to deliver that. And due to Corbyn, there might insufficient support in parliament to force her hand...

My prediction will be the collapse of the Tory govt and new general elections, on which occasion the EU will offer an extension of negotiations. Another option would a 2nd referendum, which would offer eurosceptic Corbyn a chance to wash his hands of the whole issue.... ::)

Q

A hard Brexit would obviously be a disaster, but that's never stopped the Tory right before and it won't stop them now. If May sticks to her red lines then one version or another of hard Brexit is what we'll get: it would mean either a really bad deal, or no deal at all. If she gets something more like a soft Brexit that will lead to cries of betrayal and the ERG will probably trigger a leadership election in the hope of replacing her with someone more to their liking  - i.e. someone who would tear up a soft Brexit deal and give us a hard Brexit instead. If that means we crash out with no deal the ERG are fine with that.

What's so alarming is that we leave in nine months and the government is still negotiating with itself and its MPs rather than with the EU. It's easy to overlook the fact that the default position of A50 is that at the end of March we're out, whether we have a deal or not. If the current farce continues we won't even be close to concluding a deal in time, especially bearing in mind that in practical terms any deal needs to be concluded by around October to give the member states' parliaments and regional parliaments time to ratify it. In fact we're probably too late now anyway, having utterly wasted the two years since the referendum. I had thought that sanity might have started to assert itself by now, but there's no sign of it.

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #541 on: June 11, 2018, 02:11:30 PM »
Even by current standards, today has been a stellar one for Brexit-related lunacy. Remember Crispin Odey, the Brexiteer hedge fund manager who recently said it was time to "have the self-confidence" to breach EU rules because that's what Elizabeth I would have done? Well he's been showing his confidence in Brexit by, er, betting against British businesses (it's a sign of how bad things are getting when you see a story like this in the Mail):

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html

Quote
Odey’s apparent lack of confidence in flagship British firms stands in marked contrast to his fund’s investments in other countries, including France, Germany and the US, where he is mainly backing shares to rise.


The flamboyant fund manager, who once spent more than £100,000 on a chicken coop dubbed Cluckingham Palace at his Gloucestershire mansion, has given hundreds of thousands to campaigns backing Britain’s separation from the European Union including Global Britain and the Democracy Movement.

He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP’s Election campaign in 2015. In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management, which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.

In addition to its short positions against British shares, Odey Asset Management has taken a £150 million bet against the value of Government bonds.

Why can't these people just believe in Britain?


Then we had Jacob Rees-Mogg showing that Peter Bone isn't the only Brexit fanatic who doesn't seem to understand the very WTO rules they're apparently so keen on:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/11/rees-mogg-no-need-for-customs-checks-at-dover-in-no-deal-brexit

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Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that there would be no need for customs checks at Dover on EU imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that any delays for exports to Europe would be France’s responsibility.

The leading Conservative party Brexiter said checks would not be needed because EU goods could be trusted.

However, his vision was immediately dismissed by legal experts as a breach of World Trade Organization rules because it would amount to discriminatory practice.

This was followed by an interview on LBC radio with Arron Banks, the financial backer of the Leave.EU campaign, on the subject of possible links between the campaign and Russia. Clearly, that's a serious subject which required an impeccably impartial interviewer. And who was that interviewer? Step forward Nigel Farage, friend of Arron Banks.

The crowning cherry on the idiot cake came on Newsnight, when Tory Brexiteer Andrea Jenkyns decried people "talking the country down" and said we should "make it clear we're willing to walk away with no deal". How could we do this? Well, Andrea thinks we have two trump cards to play: first, we tell the EU that over 17 million people voted for Brexit. Quite why the EU should be impressed by this, let alone why it would force them to change their position, is not clear. Second, we threaten not to pay the £39 million so-called "divorce bill", which is not a divorce bill at all, but an obligation to settle commitments already agreed to, which even the UK government has acknowledged. So if we shout "will of the people" at Michel Barnier while establishing a reputation as a country that can't be trusted to honour its commitments, we'll be fine.

Whoever said there's no plan? 




Offline Marc

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #542 on: June 11, 2018, 08:30:02 PM »
If there ever was a moment in this century that the UK and EU should be/remain united instead of divided, it would be right now.
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Offline vandermolen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #543 on: June 11, 2018, 09:40:37 PM »
If there ever was a moment in this century that the UK and EU should be/remain united instead of divided, it would be right now.
Totally agree with you.

Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 09:44:20 PM by vandermolen »
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #544 on: June 15, 2018, 02:56:04 PM »
À chacun son goût.

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #545 on: June 16, 2018, 12:34:44 AM »
Royal Mail has been pushed by Brexiteers to issue stamps to commemorate Brexit.

It declined the idea, but look what happened to the newly issued series of stamps dedicated to the tv series "Dad's Army":










Well, the joke isn't lost on me - an epic display of British humour....  :D

Q
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 12:36:47 AM by Que »
À chacun son goût.

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #546 on: June 16, 2018, 01:51:33 PM »

Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Stop talking down the slaughterhouse. Bloody Remoaner.