Topic: Brexit Negotiations.

[nodogen]

Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit

Q

This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.

[Que]

This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.

Easiest will be I guess to blame everything again on the EU...which is naturally out to "punish" the UK (even if that would inflict damage on its own interests.... the wonders of "reverse psychology"...)

This aftermath would estrange the UK even more from the rest of Europe...

Regarding your best friends and close allies as "enemies" that are out yo get you.... the comparison with the paranoia of Trumpian America isn't far away.

Meanwhile, and most sadly so, the real threats are much closer at home. My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks...

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.

Q

[snyprrr]

"UK back in the EU, or we unleash the full hell of muzzie aggression upon Londistan,"

-any random UK leader

[Marc]

[...]
My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks...

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.
[...]

Seconded.

[mc ukrneal]

Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit

Q

I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.

[Que]

I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.

A "hard" Brexit is per definition an exit without any prior negotiated deal - Britain would become overnight a "third country" without a trade deal with the EU.

Note that any trade deal is a mutual agreement between the UK and the EU, not unilateral wishful "have-your-cake-and-eat-it" thinking.

My point was that the chances of any deal to be reached before the deadline are unfortunately becoming slimmer....

Q

[Que]

It's interesting to see that the UK elections that were supposed to be about Brexit, then in the run up didn't touch Brexit, turn out to be on Brexit after all...

It seems that now May failed to secure a mandate for a hard Brexit, all options are open again...

LibDem doesn't want a Brexit. Labour doesn't want a hard Brexit, but it is unclear if it wants to stay in the internal market.
Scottish Conservatives want a soft Brexit, against a back drop of declining appetite for Scottish independence.
Theresa May new found "friends" (DUP) want a soft Brexit. Moderate Conservatives want a soft Brexit.

Either hardline Brexiteers in the Conservative party back down or the Tories will descend into chaos and their fate will be sealed in a 2nd general election.

Meanwhile the EU has no clue what to negotiate about....
Britain would be wise to plea for an extention of the deadline, and the EU would be wise to grant it.
My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon, since the alternative would be a hard Brexit neither the UK nor the EU wants.

Q

[Spineur]

....My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon....

Q

Ever ?

"I don't think she (Theresa May) does have a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the single market," Anna Soubry, who campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU ahead of last year's referendum, told Sky News

Mon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire

[Que]

Ever ?

Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

However, from the EU perspective it is doubtful it it would want Britain back on board. Perhaps in 5 - 10 years from now, but not right away....

The UK has been a big stumbling block in any progress on European integration for decades.
To bring the EU forward and "save it" the coinciding of geopolitical crises, Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

The UK will, when it has come to its senses, be offered a generous deal complete with the Erasmus student exchange program and what have you.
After which the UK wil kindly be shown the way to the door...
Any civil servant I have talked to from various member states, including the UK, knows this: we have passed a mental point of no-return - the UK will be welcome again after the foundations of the next phase of European integration has been laid. And perhaps it wouldn't want to return to a reshaped EU...

Mon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire

It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q

[Florestan]

Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

Problem is, for the time being the only plan that's been suggested / drafted / discreetly pushed for is a "Union" with different integration levels led by a Franco-German hard core --- a plan which is firmly opposed, and rightly so, by the Eastern European nations, Romania included. 

It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

US is in a much better position than UK and will absorb the Trump shock smoother than will the UK absorb the Brexit shock. In any case, rumors about their demise have been greatly exaggerated. 

[nodogen]

It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q

It is. The current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet. The U.K. on the other hand is being driven off a cliff by a woman whose stubbornness, vanity and cold-heartedness seem boundless.
I think I'll stay under the duvet.😡

[Todd]

The current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet.

Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.

[Richard Pinnell]

Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

The result of the Brexit referendum is the perfect example of what happens when stupid people realise they can also play a part in democracy.

[nodogen]

This is a bit masochistic of me, given I'd really want a Labour government, but as the clock is ticking on Brexit, this might be a good time NOT to be in government, given that Brexit will turn to an omnishit.

[Que]

it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

I agree that Brexit is likely to happen.

BTW for a future return the others have to agree. De Gaulle blocked a British entry twice, believing that Britain wasn't really adhering to the ideal of European integration. Very perceptive of him.... The Brits didn't enter the EU under the leadership of the Conservatives to be (politically) integrated into Europe, they came for the considerable economic benefits of the internal market. The result of the referendum is a reflection of that same sentiment, though I'm aware many Brits also valued the improvement in air quality, food safety and social rights that came along with it.
Anyway,  I don’t think the EU 27 are going to make the same mistake twice, which means the UK is out for now...

I am curious to see what kind of Brexit British politics will be aiming for.
If the deadline for negotiations is not extended, the choice might be between a non negotiated (hard) exit and the quick fix of staying in the internal market and remain a party to the Agreement on the European Economic Area. That fix is so quick that it could be achieved even after another general election...

It is going to be another cliff hanger....

Q

[Christo]

Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

As if 'Europeans' exist.

[Marc]

Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.

To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.

[Marc]

As if 'Europeans' exist.

Exactly.
But let's not make things too complicated.

[Que]

Brexit-lite back on the table as Britain rethinks its options after election



One minor possible glitch: Norway doesn't like the prospect of the UK dominating the European Free Trade Association  (EFTA).

[kishnevi]

To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.

One of the guiding principles of Washington and the other American Founders was to keep out of European power politics as much as possible (not easy, and not always obtainable, since the European powers saw no reason to keep America out of their power politics).  And of course, Washington, as general of the Revolution, made sure that we here in the US were not, as dependents of Britain, sucked unwillingly into  European quarrels.   We were sucked into European quarrels, willingly and sometimes not, but at least it was on our own account, not that of Britain.