Author Topic: Brexit Negotiations.  (Read 10966 times)

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Offline nodogen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #300 on: December 06, 2017, 06:36:07 AM »
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.
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Offline Turbot nouveaux

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #301 on: December 06, 2017, 06:49:46 AM »
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.


There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #302 on: December 06, 2017, 07:04:21 AM »
The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....

We wouldn't have the influence over EU regulations that we currently have and we'd still have to stick to them (or something very similar). So it's obviously not ideal. But a scenario which more or less replicates our single market membership would hopefully mitigate the worst of the economic damage. The alternative being pushed by the hard Brexiteers is to walk out of the negotiations with the EU and go to WTO rules while we wait for the rest of the world to rush to our door to offer us fantastic new trade deals on terms which favour us. The likes of Fox and Paterson may believe this delusional drivel, but outside the hard Brexit bubble the general view is that it would cause enormous damage. Given the choice between that or a Norway-type arrangement, I'd take the latter in a heartbeat.

Of course, the option that makes most sense is to stay in the EU, where we have the benefits of single market membership and influence over the regulations, but that won't happen unless or until there is clear evidence of a decisive swing in public opinion against Brexit, and that means leave voters switching. That may well happen as the Brexiteers' promises continue to unravel, but it hasn't happened yet, nothing like enough anyway.

Offline nodogen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #303 on: December 06, 2017, 09:33:20 AM »

There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...

All things considered, I'm sure they have been done.

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Offline nodogen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #304 on: December 06, 2017, 09:58:42 AM »
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.
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Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #305 on: December 06, 2017, 10:07:21 AM »
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.

Davis also told the Brexit select committee that the assessments went into "excruciating detail". Now they apparently don't exist.

The best comment I've seen on this is that Davis' excuse can be summarised as "the dog would have eaten my homework, if I'd done it. And if I had a dog."


Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #306 on: December 06, 2017, 02:12:28 PM »
Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.

Offline Turbot nouveaux

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #307 on: December 06, 2017, 04:49:13 PM »
Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.


They are entirely bogus. The ultra-brexiteers are dreaming of a deregulated neo-liberal fantasy where workers have no rights and the rich pay little or no tax. And who do Michael Gove and Boris Johnson work for*?

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2017, 04:51:10 PM by Turbot nouveaux »

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #308 on: December 07, 2017, 12:07:24 AM »

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.

Sir James Dyson::)

I guess if you'd want the UK turn into a society like the US, Brexit is the perfect way to go...

But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

Q
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Online The new erato

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #309 on: December 07, 2017, 01:25:26 AM »
But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.

Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #310 on: December 07, 2017, 04:32:26 PM »
What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.

The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour. 
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 04:34:45 PM by Mr. Minnow »

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #311 on: December 07, 2017, 11:40:15 PM »
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.
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Offline Turner

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #312 on: December 07, 2017, 11:41:26 PM »
A 'preliminary agreement' now settled.

Detailed content:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

Includes, concerning Northern Ireland:
"49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement"

Offline nodogen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #313 on: December 08, 2017, 12:13:04 AM »
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

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Online Spineur

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #314 on: December 08, 2017, 12:32:24 AM »
Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.
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Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #315 on: December 08, 2017, 12:39:06 AM »
Pardconditions ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q
« Last Edit: December 08, 2017, 12:44:17 AM by Que »
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Offline Turbot nouveaux

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #316 on: December 08, 2017, 03:31:54 AM »
The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour.


Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)

Offline nodogen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #317 on: December 08, 2017, 04:14:50 AM »
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.

Lord, I said I was ignorant.


In the glorious days ahead, when we have left the EU, we People of Albion shall revert to the groat.


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Offline nodogen

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #318 on: December 08, 2017, 04:16:45 AM »
I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q

And what might Scotland and Wales make of all this?

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Online Spineur

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #319 on: December 08, 2017, 04:37:43 AM »
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.

A woman voice glides like the wind
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And all it touches in this flight
Suddenly is over.

Anna Akhomatova

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