Topic: Brexit Negotiations.

[NikF]

Sounds cool to me.  Let's not tell him - we'll just turn up unannounced. 

[XB-70 Valkyrie]

I have first dibs on his garden shed until my wife and I can find a place to live! 

Seriously, I had the pleasure of meeting Aligreto last year when we were in Ireland, and I'm sure he would make a great neighbor!

When we were on a bus from Dublin to Glendalough, there was a teenage Irish kid marveling at this one huge mansion: "WOW, that place is huge!! It is gorgeous! It must cost five hundred thousand Euros!!!"

Kid, in SoCal $500K will not buy you a one-square-foot shed to store a piece of rubber dogschit.

We are seriously considering it for retirement, although we may just end up on the West coast--Ennis or Kenmare, if that's not too impractical.

[vandermolen]

I have first dibs on his garden shed until my wife and I can find a place to live! 

Seriously, I had the pleasure of meeting Aligreto last year when we were in Ireland, and I'm sure he would make a great neighbor!

When we were on a bus from Dublin to Glendalough, there was a teenage Irish kid marveling at this one huge mansion: "WOW, that place is huge!! It is gorgeous! It must cost five hundred thousand Euros!!!"

Kid, in SoCal $500K will not buy you a one-square-foot shed to store a piece of rubber dogschit.

We are seriously considering it for retirement, although we may just end up on the West coast--Ennis or Kenmare, if that's not too impractical.

In Kemare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.

[ritter]

But we should advise XB-70 Valkyrie to be more careful than Moeran when on that pier...

[Mr. Minnow]

As we (in the UK) slide towards the 'No Deal' abyss the danger is that the government will ask for emergency powers and our democracy will be eroded, which I find very worrying.

I think it's already been eroded. We don't yet know the full extent of the Leave campaign's links with Cambridge Analytica or Arron Banks' Russian connections, but we do know that the Leave campaign has been found guilty of breaking electoral law by the Electoral Commission - yet neither the government nor the Brexit-supporting press gives a toss. So they will get away with cheating and we'll still leave, despite the huge question mark over the integrity of the result. Perhaps the most novel argument in defence of this attitude is that "you can't prove that the cheating affected the result". So if you sit an exam, cheat, and get an A grade, don't worry if you get caught - just point out that no-one can prove that your cheating made any difference to your grade. In fact, be sure to state that you're 100% confident that even if you hadn't cheated you'd still have done just as well. According to Brexiter logic, this is a watertight defence.

[XB-70 Valkyrie]

In Kemare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.

Did not know about that, but we did see the Kenmare stone circle and ate at the restaurant Tom Crean's granddaughter owns--some of the best seafood we've ever had!

[vandermolen]

Did not know about that, but we did see the Kenmare stone circle and ate at the restaurant Tom Crean's granddaughter owns--some of the best seafood we've ever had!

Tom Crean, another great hero of mine - how exciting. Did you meet his granddaughter?

Some debate if Moeran had a heart attack and fell into the river or was drunk or possibly both.

[vandermolen]

I think it's already been eroded. We don't yet know the full extent of the Leave campaign's links with Cambridge Analytica or Arron Banks' Russian connections, but we do know that the Leave campaign has been found guilty of breaking electoral law by the Electoral Commission - yet neither the government nor the Brexit-supporting press gives a toss. So they will get away with cheating and we'll still leave, despite the huge question mark over the integrity of the result. Perhaps the most novel argument in defence of this attitude is that "you can't prove that the cheating affected the result". So if you sit an exam, cheat, and get an A grade, don't worry if you get caught - just point out that no-one can prove that your cheating made any difference to your grade. In fact, be sure to state that you're 100% confident that even if you hadn't cheated you'd still have done just as well. According to Brexiter logic, this is a watertight defence.

Sadly what you say is very true.

[Christo]

In Kenmare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.

Saw the pier back in 1992, wish I'd known about Moeran then. 

[Que]

It seems that May is well on course to Brexiternity....


May Weighs Brexit Fix that Keeps EU Rules for Longer (Bloomberg)

Q

[XB-70 Valkyrie]

Tom Crean, another great hero of mine - how exciting. Did you meet his granddaughter?

Some debate if Moeran had a heart attack and fell into the river or was drunk or possibly both.

We did not meet his granddaughter, but I will tell you the food was outstanding, like most of the food we had in Ireland. But this restaurant in particular was amazing. My wife said the oysters were the best she's ever had. After seeing the Kenmare Stone Circle, I ordered the scallops, and I received them arranged on my plate in pretty much the same pattern. The restaurant has a large image of Tom--not sure whether it was projected or an LED screen--we never got that close to it. I joked to my wife that I wasn't sure whether we needed to genuflect!

There is also a Tom Crean Beer, which we found only in the west and enjoyed several times along with our Guinness, Smithwick's, and Paddy (whisky).

[Que]

A striking analysis from Germany (Deutsche Welle):

Brexit has reached a dead end

Brexit is on the negotiating table yet again in Brussels. With no alternative in sight, the UK is staggering aimlessly toward the day it will ultimately leave the European Union, says Bernd Riegert, DW's correspondent in Brussels.

The UK's Brexit negotiations with the European Union are at an impasse — that's according to Prime Minister Theresa May. In a letter to her own divided Conservative party, she admits that, surrounded by red lines she is not allowed to cross, she can neither push ahead nor turn back. Brexit can't be too soft or too hard, or else the various parties and the EU will be unable to reach an agreement.

Brussels has rejected May's latest proposal, which would have meant negotiating a kind of free trade area only for goods. Just 11 percent of UK citizens liked that plan, according to opinion polls. Negotiations resume in Brussels this week. However, the teams accompanying EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK's Brexit minister, Dominic Raab, wonder what they will be negotiating.

There are no viable proposals either on trade issues or the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The British government is set on a vague statement about its future relationship with the EU. However, Brussels is insisting on a concrete exit treaty that would at least finalize essential questions regarding finances, borders and civil rights. It is clear that time is getting short. A Brexit deal is supposed to be in place by the end of October. That is tight.

Up until now, the British have negotiated by playing dead and only coming up with something substantial and concrete at the very last moment, but that is not likely to work this time around. May's attempt to split the EU with charm offensives in Paris and Berlin has failed. The UK's negotiating position is growing weaker by the day. The EU has much less to lose than the British. On the homefront, May has been stirring up panic, stockpiling food and medicine in the case of a "no deal" Brexit and pushing the idea that the EU is to blame for everything because of its inflexibility.

The basic problem is that Brexit, which was pushed by a dishonest referendum campaign, has practically no advantages for the UK, neither concerning trade nor migration. To the contrary, British employers are already complaining that too few EU foreigners want to work in the country. Brexit is scaring them off.

The opposition? Keeping mum
The Remain camp is desperately fighting for a second referendum to stop Brexit. That will not happen, at least not under May, who has categorically ruled it out. Whether the prime minister can survive party infighting and hold her own beyond the autumn, when a Brexit deal supposed to have been reached, is doubtful. On the other hand, no one really wants her nearly impossible job.

Boris Johnson, that Brexit pioneer and political clown, has vanished. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has not seized the moment, and his Labour party leadership tenure has been under assault for supporting the plight of the Palestinians. In any case, Corbyn has not yet presented his own Brexit concept.

What now? Without a concept, Britain continues to stagger aimlessly toward Brexit day.  At the moment, there is little hope that anyone will pull the emergency brake and at least postpone the unfortunate event.

[vandermolen]

We did not meet his granddaughter, but I will tell you the food was outstanding, like most of the food we had in Ireland. But this restaurant in particular was amazing. My wife said the oysters were the best she's ever had. After seeing the Kenmare Stone Circle, I ordered the scallops, and I received them arranged on my plate in pretty much the same pattern. The restaurant has a large image of Tom--not sure whether it was projected or an LED screen--we never got that close to it. I joked to my wife that I wasn't sure whether we needed to genuflect!

There is also a Tom Crean Beer, which we found only in the west and enjoyed several times along with our Guinness, Smithwick's, and Paddy (whisky).

How interesting! I'd love to go there myself one day. Thanks.

[Mr. Minnow]

A striking analysis from Germany (Deutsche Welle):

The British government is set on a vague statement about its future relationship with the EU. However, Brussels is insisting on a concrete exit treaty that would at least finalize essential questions regarding finances, borders and civil rights.

I hope this is true, because there's no way our shambolic government should be allowed to get away with yet another fudge. It's ridiculous that they've been allowed to kick the can down the road this far because of their total inability to come up with a workable plan to serve as the basis for a negotiating position. The Chequers plan is pretty much dead already.

Equally infuriating is the extent to which the Brexit-supporting press has given the government so much cover for their clueless handling of the Brexit process. If we had a press which did what it's supposed to do in a democracy, i.e. hold the government to account, they'd never be allowed to get away with the line that "it's all the EU's fault", and every cry of "betrayal!" from the Brexit ultras would be met with a demand that they produce a detailed, workable plan of their own. Unsurprisingly, no such plan has been produced or demanded.

[Mr. Minnow]

Would you believe it - it seems that Bertie Wooster and his chums are finally about to publish a Brexit plan of their own:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/17/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-trade-the-wto-is-not-a-safety-net

Unfortunately it's taken them until there's bugger all time left to get a deal done, but still, better late than never. And what a plan it is - apparently even if we crash out with no deal, WTO rules will be just fine. So that's our trade and economic arrangements sorted. But what of the Irish border? Well:

Next month, hardliners of the European Research Group, chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg, are due to publish a Brexit plan to rival the “Chequers” blueprint that the prime minister is trying to sell to her party and EU capitals (without great success). One difference between the two camps is that the ERG ascribes no great value to membership of the single market. Another is that it sees no need to honour commitments already made regarding an invisible Irish border. Dispensing with the burden of those obligations allows Brexiters to propose trade arrangements like those between the EU and Canada, or no trade agreement at all.

So, sod the Good Friday Agreement then. Marvellous.

This article is similarly reassuring:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/18/founder-superdry-donates-1-million-pounds-peoples-vote-brexit-deal

Some senior ministers fear that there is no Commons majority for Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal, unveiled to her ministers at a meeting at her Chequers retreat earlier this summer and resulting in the resignations of the Brexit secretary David Davis and Boris Johnson. Many MPs and donors are expecting Johnson, the former foreign secretary, to make a pitch for the leadership, while hard Brexiters are drawing up their own preferred Brexit deal.

“We are on the road to misery,” said one senior minister. “[Hard Brexiters] will kill all but ‘no deal’. The Commons won’t vote for that – ministers won’t – so it will all collapse. It could be truly dreadful.”

Sunlit uplands here we come!

[Mr. Minnow]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/svwslRDTyzU" target="_blank" class="new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/svwslRDTyzU</a>

[Que]

Two academics from Princeton University on the motives behind the Brexit vote:

Brexit is a consequence of low upward mobility

To me it seems that the Leave vote, like the rise of Trump, was the result of an unholy coalition of a large group of socially disenfranchised, left behind in modern society and left out of modern economy, and a very vocal group of upper middle class conservatives who engineered the whole situation with harsh neoliberal policies and frankly don't give a shit about anyone or anything but themselves.

Luckily in continental Europe neoliberalism in its "purest" form never really caught on...
Though on the continent there are presently other, more "classic" but equally dangerous threats to democracy.

And not far ahead are times of major global economic and geopolitical instability. Fasten your seatbelts....

Q

[Que]

The mind boggling aspect of Brexit is that even 2 years after the referendum, nobody has a clue what is going to happen...

Want to play a simulation game?  (Bloomberg)

Brexit is tricky. The U.K.'s prime minister, Theresa May, is giving it her best shot, but could you do better? Perhaps the answer is a new prime minister, or a tougher approach to the EU. Here’s your chance to play through the options as many times as you like and see if you can plot a path to the Brexit of your dreams, be it hard or soft, or perhaps stop it altogether ...

Pick Your Own Brexit.

Q

[Que]

Newest political wisdom in Westminster: anyone that points out any negative consequence of a no-deal Brexit, is a liar.
Even if it is the Chancellor of the Exchequer:

Tory infighting erupts after Hammond's no-deal Brexit comments spark anger among Eurosceptics in party



Meanwhile..... in the real world (fin. times):

The World Trade Organization has warned about potential disruption for the UK from a no-deal Brexit, saying that it is “very unlikely” that the government will have agreed tariffs and quotas with all other member countries by next March.

Hardline Brexiters have pointed to the WTO as a safety net that would allow trade to continue, with additional barriers, even if Britain left the EU without a deal.

But Roberto Azevêdo, the head of the WTO, said on Friday that other countries would look to take advantage of the UK’s position, complicating or preventing agreement on some points. “The moment that other countries begin to sense an opportunity to increase the market share or increase the quota here or there, they’re going to go for that. There will be a lot of uncertainty here, there will be a lot of unpredictability,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “It is very unlikely that you’re going to have 100 per cent agreed outcome for all WTO members between now and March.”

Mr Azevêdo’s comments are a notably candid assessment of the legal obstacles facing the UK. The UK’s Department for International Trade said in response that it was looking to simply facilitate talks by “replicat[ing] as far as possible our current obligations”. “We have already started the formal process of agreeing the schedules with WTO members. It can be completed within three months. But it is not uncommon for it to take longer and for members to trade under unagreed schedules for periods of time while concerns about commitments are ironed out,” the department said.

A UK government technical notice published on Thursday said that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, “trade with the EU will be on non-preferential, World Trade Organization terms”, but did not address what would happen if there was no agreement with other WTO members.

The British government has said that a no-deal Brexit is unlikely, although Liam Fox, the international trade secretary in charge of negotiating with the WTO, has said it is a 60 per cent probability. David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, said on Friday that negotiations with the EU could continue into November — echoing a statement made this week by Michel Barnier, the lead EU negotiator.

In a no deal scenario, Mr Azevêdo made clear that the EU could not exempt the UK from tariffs. “The EU cannot discriminate among the WTO members . . . The other members pay tariffs, so the UK will have to pay tariffs as well,” he said. Under the same WTO rules, Britain could impose zero tariffs on some goods — as proposed by some Brexiters — but it would have to do so for all WTO members.

Overall Mr Azevêdo, a former Brazilian trade negotiator, said of a no-deal Brexit: “There will be an impact — it may be larger or smaller depending on the sector . . . It’s not going to be the end of the world . . . but it’s not going to be a walk in the park either.”

The WTO could also object to Britain’s proposed border system with the EU, the so-called facilitated customs arrangements. UK trade secretary Mr Fox said last month that: “There is no way with a system that has never been tested before to know whether the WTO will regard it as compliant.”

[Mr. Minnow]

Newest political wisdom in Westminster: anyone that points out any negative consequence of a no-deal Brexit, is a liar.

The Brexit headbangers screech "Project Fear!" in response to any inconvenient truth in much the same way that Trump says "fake news!" to anything he doesn't like. Even the recent warning from the Royal Pharmaceutical Society about the availability of medicines in a no deal scenario was dismissed by renowned medical expert Nigel Farage as evidence that the RPS is part of the great anti-Brexit conspiracy.