Author Topic: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down  (Read 2383 times)

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Offline Turner

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #40 on: September 10, 2017, 01:04:28 AM »
Three hurricanes, just after Harvey ...

Offline amw

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #41 on: September 10, 2017, 01:18:20 AM »
Irma has not intensified as much as feared, and wind shear will begin weakening it in ~12 hours, when it's forecast to be offshore of Marco Island/Everglades City area. Likely to make landfall in the Keys at or around current pressure of 928mbar, similar to Donna (1960), but subsequent impacts should be less severe.

Offline Spineur

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #42 on: September 10, 2017, 04:38:57 AM »
The eye just hit the lower keys with a central pressure of 930 mb similar to Donna which had up to now an identical trajectory to Irma.  Donna made a strange turn to the east through the upper part of FL which is not predicted for Irma according to the current models.  Damages due to water surges look bad, but the winds which are peaking up at 130mph right now will be far less destructive as initially thought.
A woman voice glides like the wind
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And all it touches in this flight
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Offline amw

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #43 on: September 10, 2017, 04:58:13 AM »
Signs of increasing disruption in the eyewall as westerly wind shear takes over; eye still well-defined but now looks more like a half moon than a full circle, which is a good sign. (see e.g. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJXNFsvVwAEaktw.jpg) However the westerly winds also increase the risk of storm surge along the western Florida coast by essentially keeping the waters from receding as quickly as they normally might. Which is not such a good sign. Surge could be 2-3m as far north as Tampa Bay, with as much as 5-6m in the Naples area. 1m already recorded in Miami and Key West, the latter expecting 3-4m once the eye of the storm has passed
« Last Edit: September 10, 2017, 05:00:25 AM by amw »

Offline Mirror Image

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #44 on: September 10, 2017, 07:08:07 PM »
Update:

"Music must be beautiful, or it wouldn’t be worth the effort” - Bohuslav Martinů

Offline Jeffrey Smith

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #45 on: September 10, 2017, 07:16:03 PM »
Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

Offline Mirror Image

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #46 on: September 10, 2017, 07:19:26 PM »
Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

Great to hear, Jeffrey. I was hoping it wasn’t going to be bad for you guys as I really felt terrible for all of you down there. Thankfully, some minimal damage was done and it wasn’t any worse than what it could have been. Take care, my friend.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2017, 07:41:18 PM by Mirror Image »
"Music must be beautiful, or it wouldn’t be worth the effort” - Bohuslav Martinů

Offline Ken B

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #47 on: September 10, 2017, 07:43:05 PM »
Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

Great news Jeffrey!

Let's hope Neal is as lucky too.
Give a man a fire and he is warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he is warm for life.

Offline Scion7

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #48 on: September 10, 2017, 08:24:11 PM »
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over.

Yup, now you just have to worry about storm-disturbed alligators, adult non-native monitor lizards, and storm-zombies.

Especially storm-zombies!    ???
Your barricades lie broken ... your enemies lord.

Offline amw

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #49 on: September 11, 2017, 02:01:52 AM »
Glad you made it! Miami metro had an easier time than feared, but still, I can't imagine it was particularly fun for anyone in the area. 1.5 million people still without power and downtown Miami apparently flooded. Probably be a few more days before we'll be able to assess the damage (still about 400 miles of tropical storm force winds extending from Panama City to Charleston....)

José has also weakened quite a bit and now seems to be going around in a circle. And Florida will get at least one week to clean up before there's any chance of it affecting the US or Bahamas 😱
« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 02:06:51 AM by amw »

Offline Scion7

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #50 on: September 11, 2017, 02:08:19 AM »


5:58 A.M. Monday morning.
The Carolinas are getting rain bands.
Your barricades lie broken ... your enemies lord.

Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #51 on: September 11, 2017, 03:07:06 AM »
Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Good!

My friends in Boca also report well.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
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http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Offline mc ukrneal

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #52 on: September 11, 2017, 04:08:51 AM »
We decided to escape last minute. But it doesn't look as bad as what could have been. Electricity is out and lots of trees down, but seems otherwise mostly ok.
Offenbach gets a raw deal in recordings considering his talent! For a discussion of this outstanding composer too little recorded: http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,5572.

Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #53 on: September 11, 2017, 04:24:05 AM »
Thanks for checking in :)
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
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[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
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His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Offline Spineur

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #54 on: September 11, 2017, 04:28:21 AM »
Glad to see that everyone made it.  Hopefully the next one will be a few years down the line...
A woman voice glides like the wind
Of black, of damp, of night
And all it touches in this flight
Suddenly is over.

Anna Akhomatova

Offline Gurn Blanston

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #55 on: September 11, 2017, 05:10:11 AM »
Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

That is excellent news, Jeffrey, better than you could have hoped. I am in Vermont, we stayed up anxiously watching the news. As it turned out, my b-i-l in Spring Hill came out OK, but we haven't heard anything yet from our niece in Lakeland. They got it pretty bad there, fingers crossed... :-\

Good on you too, Neal. I'll be back soon.

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Offline Sergeant Rock

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #56 on: September 11, 2017, 06:51:02 AM »
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

My niece in Jacksonville (at the Naval Air Station) experienced the opposite: electricity lost but cell phone still working. Glad to hear you survived intact.

We decided to escape last minute.

As did my brother and his family (in Panama City). He took off yesterday with his wife, daughter and cat. Last I heard they were enjoying the swimming pool at a motel near the Alabama border (well, maybe not the cat).

My best friend has a house near the beach on Anna Marie Island (south of Tampa). No word yet on how the island fared (he's ensconced in Ohio).

Sarge
« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 07:05:45 AM by Sergeant Rock »
the phone rings and somebody says,
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Mahler, you ought to go see it.
he was as f*cked-up as you are."
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Offline Scion7

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TROPICAL STORM Irma barrels down
« Reply #57 on: September 11, 2017, 08:29:54 AM »
Your barricades lie broken ... your enemies lord.

Offline Mirror Image

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Re: Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down
« Reply #58 on: September 11, 2017, 09:11:13 AM »
Good to hear the GMG members in Florida are doing well (Neal, Jeffrey Smith, among others I’m sure). Right now, Irma has decided to stir things up a bit here in Northeast GA, but it’s no worse than a lot of thunderstorms I’ve seen here. The rain seems to have stopped...it’s just wind now. By the way, I’m 45 miles NE of Atlanta, so I don't live in Atlanta as some GMG members think I do.
"Music must be beautiful, or it wouldn’t be worth the effort” - Bohuslav Martinů

Offline Rinaldo

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