Author Topic: Dreams of 2020  (Read 1102 times)

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Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2018, 07:25:54 AM »
The hostility toward the reasoned is a giant factor in Trump's popularity and will give him the next election as well.

Arguably, it is nearly the Democrats' race to lose.  But, of course, 2016 was Clinton's to lose—and she did.

There are numerous ways in which the Democrats can lose what ought to be their advantage.
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Offline eljr

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2018, 07:35:02 AM »
Arguably, it is nearly the Democrats' race to lose.  But, of course, 2016 was Clinton's to lose—and she did.

There are numerous ways in which the Democrats can lose what ought to be their advantage.

Dem's are not motivated across the board as Trumpets are.

Trump dictates what  the Trumpets want and who they are. He defines who the Democrats are too!
 

the dem's have shown no answer to Trump defining them. Until that changes and I have no reason to think it will, the Dem's will not win dog catcher. 

We just had a 28 year old women, a socialist, win the primary in the bronx. Good grief. If anyone thinks this is the way to beat Trump I got a bridge in another borough to sell them.
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Offline 71 dB

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #22 on: July 03, 2018, 07:42:14 AM »
Kyle Kulinski vents about Alex Jones for smearing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/uQTUhqqbFxA" target="_blank" class="new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/uQTUhqqbFxA</a>
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Offline 71 dB

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2018, 07:52:50 AM »
We just had a 28 year old women, a socialist, win the primary in the bronx. Good grief. If anyone thinks this is the way to beat Trump I got a bridge in another borough to sell them.

Actually not a socialist, but a social democrat supporting  the furthest left type of capitalism which happens to be the most popular system among American people and has proven to be a very succesful model in the World. If Democrats want to beat republicans they need to move left many many steps. This 28 year old woman is waiting for them there.
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Offline zamyrabyrd

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #24 on: July 03, 2018, 11:05:10 AM »
Take heart, then: according to WaPo, as soon as this electoral majority will dominate the country the Dems will rule the US for at least a generation to come. Be careful, though, what you wish for.

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Offline eljr

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #25 on: July 03, 2018, 12:53:23 PM »
If Democrats want to beat republicans they need to move left many many steps. This 28 year old woman is waiting for them there.

I totally disagree.

I wish it were true, it's just flat out not.

BTW, there are no republicans any longer. There are Trumpets who have sold their souls.
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Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2018, 03:45:33 AM »
Get a damned clue, Democrats:  “We ain’t El Tupé!” wasn’t enough in 2016, and it won’t be, in 2020.

Canned crab? Elizabeth Warren is unfit to lead.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
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Offline zamyrabyrd

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2018, 04:15:19 AM »

BTW, there are no republicans any longer. There are Trumpets who have sold their souls.

More precisely, there are no real opposing political parties in the US. The Reps and Dems are locked into paying back favors to the powers that helped them get elected. The people get shuffled out of the equation. As an example, George W Bush actually voted for Hillary Clinton. To me, that is not a surprise.
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Offline drogulus

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2018, 09:44:18 AM »
I totally disagree.

I wish it were true, it's just flat out not.

BTW, there are no republicans any longer. There are Trumpets who have sold their souls.


     I think it's part true, but Dems should be accepting of local differences and make common cause with centrists who mostly want the same things on jobs, health care, the environment, and infrastructure investment. I think a left-leaning Dem candidate can stake out a progressive platform that isn't inflammatory. Remember that while the designation of liberal/progressive/socialist isn't popular, the programs are.
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Offline Pat B

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2018, 03:33:47 PM »
The top of the Libertarians’ 2016 ticket was another ex-governor, New Mexico’s Gary Johnson, who was too interested in marijuana and not interested enough in Syria to recognize the name Aleppo. Weld, however, is ready for prime time.

“Aleppo” was a clear gaffe by Johnson. But was it any worse than a candidate declaring (among a flood of nonsense and lies) that Putin would not go into Ukraine after that had already happened? The candidate who said that, Donald Trump, eventually won the overwhelming support of the so-called conservatives. “Aleppo” became an excuse to not vote for somebody they weren’t voting for anyway.

Weld’s level of polish is completely irrelevant. He needs support from people who care about their team winning more than they care about the differences between Trump and him. He won’t get it even if he runs a perfect campaign.

I once had some hope that the Libertarian party could eventually become a legitimate factor by gradually peeling supporters from both major parties. But after seeing how thoroughly the Republicans closed ranks around even Donald Trump, and even when the Libertarian candidate had relatively strong credentials, I now realize how completely futile that cause is even in the long term.

Offline San Antone

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2018, 05:35:08 PM »
I don't think the mid-term elections will change the balance of power in Congress and I think Trump will win re-election.

Nothing could make me happier, except for Ruth Bader Ginsburg to retire and allow Trump to create a 6-3 Conservative majority Court.


Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2018, 01:04:53 AM »
“Aleppo” was a clear gaffe by Johnson. But was it any worse than a candidate declaring (among a flood of nonsense and lies) that Putin would not go into Ukraine after that had already happened? The candidate who said that, Donald Trump, eventually won the overwhelming support of the so-called conservatives. “Aleppo” became an excuse to not vote for somebody they weren’t voting for anyway.

Weld’s level of polish is completely irrelevant. He needs support from people who care about their team winning more than they care about the differences between Trump and him. He won’t get it even if he runs a perfect campaign.

I once had some hope that the Libertarian party could eventually become a legitimate factor by gradually peeling supporters from both major parties. But after seeing how thoroughly the Republicans closed ranks around even Donald Trump, and even when the Libertarian candidate had relatively strong credentials, I now realize how completely futile that cause is even in the long term.

Your points, all well taken.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
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Offline zamyrabyrd

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2018, 06:24:20 AM »
I don't think the mid-term elections will change the balance of power in Congress and I think Trump will win re-election. Nothing could make me happier, except for Ruth Bader Ginsburg to retire and allow Trump to create a 6-3 Conservative majority Court.

The thought is so comforting, all is not lost!
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Offline amw

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2018, 06:37:59 AM »
It's more likely than not that Democrats will win the House. I suspect they'll see a net gain of one seat in the Senate; control would in that case be determined by who offers Lisa Murkowski the most lucrative committee assignments. (She won in her most recent re-election campaign as an independent endorsed by the state Democrats, then switched back to Republican because McConnell gave her a place on the Energy Committee and Alaskans are one-issue voters.)

In 2020 Democrats will probably nominate either some boring centrist senator like Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar, who will lose to Trump unless there's an economic recession, or they will nominate Oprah, who will win in a 49-state landslide and then probably make scientology the national religion or something.

Offline JBS

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #34 on: October 18, 2018, 11:52:57 AM »
At this point, the odds of the Democrats losing at least one seat are much greater than the odds of them actually gaining any seats.  Senate elections are staggered, and the rhythm of history means that in this cycle, there are more Democratic incumbents running in Trump supporting states than Republican incumbents in not Trump supporting states.

Recent polling suggest that GOP voters are returning to their tribal roots, and thus filtered see Democrats as dangerous and Trump as not.


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Offline amw

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #35 on: October 18, 2018, 06:51:48 PM »
GOP voters never left their roots. 91% of them approve of trump as far as I recall. However turnout and enthusiasm seems to be higher among Democrat voters, so the only Democratic senate seats in danger are those where the number of Democrats available to turn out has dropped significantly since 2012 (North Dakota is the main one). High D turnout means Nevada is a very likely pickup and Arizona is also possible, and I don’t see them losing in eg Missouri (due to St Louis and Kansas City), Indiana (due to Indianapolis & the Chicago burbs) or even Montana (lots of small but blueish cities). West Virginia is a special case bc the Democrat running there is basically a Republican in all but name & a Trump ally who was considered for a cabinet position, which gives the actual Republican not that much to run on, but he might still pull it out on pure party recognition. Also Ted Cruz is unpopular enough in Texas that he might actually lose just because no one likes him (whereas Texas would have been a sure bet for basically any other Republican).

Offline JBS

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #36 on: October 18, 2018, 07:20:41 PM »
GOP voters never left their roots. 91% of them approve of trump as far as I recall. However turnout and enthusiasm seems to be higher among Democrat voters, so the only Democratic senate seats in danger are those where the number of Democrats available to turn out has dropped significantly since 2012 (North Dakota is the main one). High D turnout means Nevada is a very likely pickup and Arizona is also possible, and I don’t see them losing in eg Missouri (due to St Louis and Kansas City), Indiana (due to Indianapolis & the Chicago burbs) or even Montana (lots of small but blueish cities). West Virginia is a special case bc the Democrat running there is basically a Republican in all but name & a Trump ally who was considered for a cabinet position, which gives the actual Republican not that much to run on, but he might still pull it out on pure party recognition. Also Ted Cruz is unpopular enough in Texas that he might actually lose just because no one likes him (whereas Texas would have been a sure bet for basically any other Republican).

That is the optimistic case.
I am more pessimistic.
I will be happy, however, to be proved wrong here.


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Offline amw

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #37 on: October 18, 2018, 07:46:02 PM »
GOP voters never left their roots. 91% of them approve of trump as far as I recall. However turnout and enthusiasm seems to be higher among Democrat voters, so the only Democratic senate seats in danger are those where the number of Democrats available to turn out has dropped significantly since 2012 (North Dakota is the main one). High D turnout means Nevada is a very likely pickup and Arizona is also possible, and I don’t see them losing in eg Missouri (due to St Louis and Kansas City), Indiana (due to Indianapolis & the Chicago burbs) or even Montana (lots of small but blueish cities). West Virginia is a special case bc the Democrat running there is basically a Republican in all but name & a Trump ally who was considered for a cabinet position, which gives the actual Republican not that much to run on, but he might still pull it out on pure party recognition. Also Ted Cruz is unpopular enough in Texas that he might actually lose just because no one likes him (whereas Texas would have been a sure bet for basically any other Republican).
Other issues:
- Heidi Heitkamp, Democratic incumbent in ND has made some notable late campaign errors, eg a mailer where she "accidentally" outed victims of sexual assault who hadn't consented to have their names revealed, but Republicans were clearly worried enough about the seat that they made the Supreme Court rule in favour of ND's voter suppression laws targeting the Oceti Sakowin reservation communities. She's already been in trouble for a while because her pro-pipeline, pro-oil drilling stance—basically the sole issue she's championed in the Senate—has turned off the few remaining Democrats in ND, and she'd only won her first race by a margin of a few thousand votes. I think putting her 30,000 votes behind, as the polls do, is underestimating her, but I doubt she'll win again.
- Phil Bredesen, Democratic candidate in TN, has picked up the coveted Taylor Swift endorsement, but like fellow centrist ex-governor Evan Bayh in 2016 he will crash and burn because there aren't enough white moderates in Nashville to make up for the black voters in Memphis who despise him (for good reasons; as governor he was basically a Dixiecrat) and will be sitting the election out.
- Bill Nelson, Democratic incumbent in FL is a charisma black hole with no particular appeal to anyone, but luckily he's running against Rick Scott who is some kind of terrifying demon wearing an ill-fitting human skin and whose lacklustre response as governor to Hurricane Michael has corresponded with increasingly worse polling outcomes. I suspect Nelson will pull it out & somehow manage to become even more boring over the next six years.
- I mentioned Ted Cruz already, but special note to the attack ads he released against Democratic challenger Beto "Robert" O'Rourke portraying the latter as a cool college kid who played in rock bands and smoked weed and Cruz himself as a preppy debate club nerd who every Texan man over 40 has memories of stuffing into a locker in high school. Also campaign appearances where Cruz tries to put on a Texan accent in the most patronising way possible and treats his voters with absolute contempt. Polls still show Cruz ahead, and he'll probably win, but I put a 33% chance of Beto winning just because otherwise loyal Republicans vote for him out of pure spite.
- I also mentioned Joe Manchin already. Worth noting that he planned to retire in 2018 before being convinced to run again by Chuck Schumer—presumably with the implication that if Democrats win the Senate he'll get something out of it, whereas if Republicans hold onto their majority & offer him some good committee assignments, he might well pull a party switch, just as the WV governor did last year.
- Jon Tester (Montana D incumbent), Claire McCaskill (Missouri D incumbent) & all of the Midwest Democrats are more secure than polling numbers suggest; not only because of the presence of numerous Democratic voters who can be activated but also because they've raised a lot of money and are largely either running against no-name opponents, or (in the case of Indiana's Joe Donnelly) extremely incompetent ones. McCaskill also has on her side the extreme unpopularity of Missouri's Republican ex-governor, an actual rapist who was forced to resign after months of inflicting continuing damage on the state Republican party, and whose attorney general is her opponent; similar circumstances to those in which Doug Jones won the Alabama special Senate election.
- My forecast is that Democrats lose ND, pick up NV and one of either AZ or TX, and hold the remainder of their seats, based on my extremely scientific method of "heaping value judgments on politicians" and "counting lawn signs". I think it's also likely that they could both lose AZ and TX and remain at 49-51, or 48-52 with a Manchin party flip. 50-50 without a Murkowski party flip (ie continued Republican control, with lots of Mike Pence tiebreaker votes) is my prediction though.
- In the House, Democrats will win control but I don't really care unless they make Maxine Waters the House Speaker >_>

Offline JBS

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #38 on: October 18, 2018, 08:24:41 PM »
I tend to agree with most of that, but I think Nelson will benefit from the Gillum effect. Gillum, the Democrat running for governor, is youngish,  has the blessing of Sanders and the goodwill of Clinton, and is black. He is running against a GOP congressman whose main virtue is adherence to Trump. I expect a lot of people to come out to vote for him, and while they are at it, vote Nelson.


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Offline amw

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Re: Dreams of 2020
« Reply #39 on: October 18, 2018, 09:06:21 PM »
Yes, Gillum's popularity is definitely not going to hurt either. And Ron DeSantis is definitely no Trump—Trump is at least entertaining and says wacky things, whereas DeSantis is just a washington insider nerd and says things that sound like they were force-fed to him by the Chevy Chase Institute of Subtle Racism and Deficit Studies.