Author Topic: Brexit Negotiations.  (Read 45232 times)

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Offline Mr. Minnow

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #920 on: March 18, 2019, 04:53:53 PM »
From what I read, this is the case.  >:D

It's partly the case. Bercow's ruling today means May can't just resubmit the motion that was rejected last week. In order for a third vote on her deal to happen there has to be a change of substance (rather than just a change of wording). The question is, what does Bercow deem to be a sufficiently substantial change?

Reports this evening suggest that May will try to agree a short extension with the EU, and then go for a third vote with the new extension. The argument would be that the revised exit date constitutes a substantial change compared to the second vote. One of the commentators on tonight's Newsnight seemed to think this would probably work as he thought it would be "very hard" to deny that a new exit date would constitute a substantial change. I'm not so sure about that. It's obviously possible that Bercow might agree, but I don't think it's such a foregone conclusion. The reason the second vote did not fall foul of the Erskine May convention on repeated votes is that it included new, legally binding documents agreed with the EU which impinged directly on one of the key components of the withdrawal agreement, i.e. the Irish backstop. Those new documents didn't have the impact May hoped, but still, they related directly to one of the most controversial parts of the agreement.

But that would not be the case if she tries to get a third vote by simply resubmitting the same motion with a new exit date tagged on. That would do nothing to change the terms under which we leave: it would offer no new interpretations, clarifications or reassurances of the agreement itself. So Bercow might take the view that an extension is not a sufficiently substantial change to justify a new vote. As he's been willing to stick his neck out with today's ruling, I'd be a bit surprised if he allowed a new vote which was based on an extension and nothing else, but it could go either way. Personally I hope he sticks to his guns: trying to browbeat MPs into passing something which they've already rejected twice by huge margins seems to me a pretty blatant abuse of power. Naturally, some Tories are outraged that Bercow is stopping them from doing this (at least for now), so we're now being spun the rather novel claim that we're in a constitutional crisis because the Speaker is insisting that the procedures of Parliament can't just be ignored.

As for the Commons wresting control from May, sadly a vote on that was lost last week by just two votes. It could still happen, but only if May can't get a third vote on her deal at all (which is obviously more likely if Bercow decides that tagging on a new exit date to the current deal doesn't constitute a substantial change), or she gets another vote but loses again.

From the point of view of a spectator, anything but no-deal Brexit will be something of an anticlimax.  >:D

From an outsider's perspective Brexit must look like a fusion of Yes Minister with Monty Python. Unfortunately for those of us living here it's not so great. The country is now so polarised that whichever way Brexit goes from here, about half the country is going to be bloody angry. We just don't know which half yet.   

Offline JBS

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #921 on: March 18, 2019, 05:26:38 PM »

From an outsider's perspective Brexit must look like a fusion of Yes Minister with Monty Python. Unfortunately for those of us living here it's not so great. The country is now so polarised that whichever way Brexit goes from here, about half the country is going to be bloody angry. We just don't know which half yet.

Well, if Brexit does not happen, the Leavers will be angry because it did not happen.
If Brexit does go through, the Remainers will be angry because it did happen, and the Leavers will be angry because Utopia did not result.

Since the Leavers will be angry either way, best thing would be for Brexit not to happen. That way only half of England will be angry.

This of course is in addition to all the other reasons not to Brexit.

Offline Ghost of Baron Scarpia

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #922 on: March 18, 2019, 05:57:38 PM »
From an outsider's perspective Brexit must look like a fusion of Yes Minister with Monty Python. Unfortunately for those of us living here it's not so great. The country is now so polarised that whichever way Brexit goes from here, about half the country is going to be bloody angry. We just don't know which half yet.

As a person living in Trump's America I can sympathise.

Well, if Brexit does not happen, the Leavers will be angry because it did not happen.
If Brexit does go through, the Remainers will be angry because it did happen, and the Leavers will be angry because Utopia did not result.

Since the Leavers will be angry either way, best thing would be for Brexit not to happen. That way only half of England will be angry.

This of course is in addition to all the other reasons not to Brexit.

Maybe no deal Brexit is best. Perhaps it will be clear what an idiotic idea it was and there will be another referendum, with a Join campaign and  and Remain (out) campaign. Only half kidding.
There are two kinds of music. Good music, and the other kind.

Offline Que

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Re: Brexit Negotiations.
« Reply #923 on: Today at 03:13:35 PM »
À chacun son goût.