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The Back Room => The Diner => Topic started by: vandermolen on May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

Title: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM
So, what's your view on how these are going?
Looks like the whole thing is breaking down to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 01, 2017, 11:01:41 PM
What's wrong with the brits? What do they want with all these isolation plans? Do they really believe they do better leaving the EU? Really?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 01, 2017, 11:21:00 PM
It's a tragicomedy with one obvious loser - and the final stage in the dissolution of an ernstwhile empire, now that Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia at Cyprus, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be forced to choose their own destinies. 

With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: pjme on May 01, 2017, 11:57:15 PM
AMEN!

P.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 02, 2017, 12:44:08 AM
So one has the choice between demagogues (who play the masses, so referenda are bad) and techno-bureaucrats who are entrenched so deeply that it is extremely hard to remove them either. Or if a government is changed, the EU and international banks force their policy on them anyway, because as Schäuble said, pacta sunt servanda and democracy be damned, if "your" government has agreed to some shady deals years ago, there is no point in removing it because you are stuck with the shady deals anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 01:06:19 AM
I thouroughly agree that referendums are an inadequate way of making complex decisions, which are in this day and age basically all decisions of any importance  (health care,  security,  international relations).

But that shouldn't blind us for the fact that the archaic bipolar British parliamentary system failed in an epic way to present people with well informed and considered guidance at forehand, and with adequate opposition or scrutiny of the political course in the aftermath of the referendum.

Logically the best option for Britain would have been to remain part of the internal market and join the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
But no.... Since the decision to leave the EU wasn't based on any logical grounds anyway, that option was ruled out...

Where will it go from here? Since the expectations on the side of the hard line Tories who are in charge on the British side are unrealistic and their political manouvering space nil, we're heading for a rift between the UK and the EU resulting in a "hard" Brexit. Perhaps with the single exception of a deal on EU citizens in the UK and vice versa.
Unless the UK government for some reason backs down at the last moment or in the event of a political crisis in the UK that halts a Brexit. Either possibility seems less likely.

I guess Brits are going to regain full controle of their "Empire 2.0" and are going to have to live with it...

And all possible blame for the disastrous result will of course be squarely put on the EU....
Who wants to be responsible for the consequences of their own decisions anyway? 8) The political events in the US are an example in case.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: zamyrabyrd on May 02, 2017, 01:07:36 AM
With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).

So people are only useful idiots whose votes are subject to manipulation by the most unscrupulous.
Why not just declare a One World Autocracy now and be done once and for all with the illusion of democracy?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:09:22 AM
So people are only useful idiots whose votes are subject to manipulation by the most unscrupulous.
Why not just declare a One World Autocracy now and be done once and for all with the illusion of democracy?
I just plead FOR democracy - and AGAINST the abuse of voters. So-called 'direct democracy' is actually the opposte of democracy and is most effectively used by autocratic leadership (think of the last century's examples, varying from the extreme right to the extreme left, but all of them anti-democrats).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:18:45 AM
Former British Prime Ministers with as widely divergent views as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher both believed that the use of a referendum was completely against British constitutional practice. David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view. We elect governments to govern. Also, Cameron was foolish not to enfranchise 16 and 17 year olds who will be most affected by the disastrous (IMHO) Brexit decision. Had he done so we would not be leaving the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:20:19 AM
Former British Prime Ministers with as widely divergent views as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher both believed that the use of a referendum was completely against British constitutional practice. David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view. We elect governments to govern. Also, Cameron was foolish not to enfranchise 16 and 17 year olds who will be most affected by the disastrous (IMHO) Brexit decision. Had he done so we would not be leaving the EU.
Fully agree.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:20:57 AM
What's wrong with the brits? What do they want with all these isolation plans? Do they really believe they do better leaving the EU? Really?
48% of us didn't want to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 01:22:50 AM
It's a tragicomedy with one obvious loser - and the final stage in the dissolution of an ernstwhile empire, now that Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia at Cyprus, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be forced to choose their own destinies. 

With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).
And I totally agree with this.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:23:21 AM
48% of us didn't want to leave the EU.
And the other half couldn't know what they were 'voting' about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 02:05:14 AM
And the other half couldn't know what they were 'voting' about.

The "good" news is that they will find out soon enough...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 02:13:44 AM
The "good" news is that they will find out soon enough...

Q
You're right: the warning effects of both the Brexit and the Trumpolini experiments on European voters are already visible.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 02:32:13 AM
Britain’s complacency over Brexit will end in humiliation (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/britain-complacency-brexit-humiliation--france-germany-eu-uk)

Why do many of the British elite believe they do not need the EU, unlike their French and German counterparts? One reason is their rose-tinted view of Britain’s history. Britain did not need to rebuild its international reputation in the same way as Germany did after the war. But too many see Britain as a beacon of democracy and liberty. Too few are aware that the country’s colonial historymeans that much of the rest of the world is more ambivalent – and that Britain is less trusted and admired – than they imagine. EU membership often helped to mitigate these historical tensions, while allowing Britain to punch above its weight by enabling it to act as a bridge between the EU and the US.

Much of the British elite know little about how Britain’s economy compares. Few realise that three-quarters of the country is poorer than the EU-15 average; that Britain’s growth performance has been mediocre at best; or that there are relatively few British-owned and managed businesses with a strong record of growth. There are bright spots in the British economy, but its commanding heights owe much to foreign capital and expertise. Foreign-owned businesses generate more than half the country’s exports, and many of these exports are intermediate goods – links in international, predominantly European, supply chains. These companies are especially vulnerable to Britain leaving the single market. If the British economy were more locally owned and managed, it would be easier to understand the British complacency over the economic impact of Brexit. But for a developed country so dependent on foreign capital to do something so damaging to its ability to attract that capital has few precedents.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 02:40:57 AM
Just to make myself clear: there isn't any "Schadenfreude" on my part - each and every European will pay the price for this utter folly....
Even though the British will have to bear the brunt of the damage themselves...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 02, 2017, 04:31:25 AM
The question is how many years before the Brenter Negotiations start?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on May 02, 2017, 05:05:26 AM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 07:45:24 AM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.

Have your cake and eat it.... We've heard that one before.... :D

Less cooperation = less compromise/ loss of sovereignty ("disadvantages") = less economic & political benefits.

And Brexit is not going to alter the economic consequences of globalisation, nor is it going to affect immigration from outside of the EU, nor will it dimish social and economic  inequality within the UK, nor is it going to restore the British Empire to its former "glory"... All of which in my observation have been the main reasons for people to favour Brexit.
Are they in for a surprise....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 11:29:30 PM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.
I hope that you're right but I'm not encouraged at the moment.

Thanks to everyone for the interesting responses.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: DaveF on May 02, 2017, 11:56:27 PM
David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view.

That's assuming he is a man of principle who genuinely wanted to give the UK electorate the chance to strengthen the UK's links with the EU.  Assuming, on the other hand, that the referendum promise was merely a manoeuvre to get him re-elected, it was a perfect bit of judgement.  I don't know whether, like Johnson, he had a pro- and anti-EU speech written to be used as required - but it wouldn't surprise me to learn that he had.

So, what's up next?  Capital punishment?  Outlawing Christianity?  Demolishing all those elitist theatres and concert halls?  I'm sure the great British electorate would vote them all through with large majorities.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 03, 2017, 01:01:44 AM
So, what's up next?  Capital punishment?  Outlawing Christianity?  Demolishing all those elitist theatres and concert halls?  I'm sure the great British electorate would vote them all through with large majorities.

Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 03, 2017, 01:07:23 AM
I thought that Cameron's gambit had had two purposes: Get him reelected and strengthen the bargaining position with the EU because of the looming Brexit-threat. (Both after a narrow vote against Brexit.) Needless to say that the perennial special role of the UK did not make them all that popular even before the Brexit began to loom. So while I feel with the 48% who voted differently, overall my pity with the UK is severely limited, I am afraid.
@Dave: Have you read any of Fforde's "Thursday Next" books? There is a People's Republic of Wales in their alternative timeline...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on May 03, 2017, 01:09:31 AM
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".

If Plato came back to life, he'd not be surprised in the least. "I told you so long time ago, gentlemen! And mark my words well this time: the worst is yet to come!"  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 03, 2017, 02:33:02 AM
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".

The reason why we witness this is because people have become too ignorant of politics. They are easily manipulated by opportunists and populists who use fear and false promises as their weapon for power. Democracy works well as long as ignorant people are a small minority, but now they are becoming a large minority or even majority.  ???

At the moment we need moderated democracy (modecracy). We need wise men and women in power to overrule "stupid" political ideology. We need perhaps the possibility to give negative votes in elections to block extremists. We need to make people interested of real unpopulistic politics until we can return to "normal" democracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ahinton on May 03, 2017, 04:18:17 AM
There's been a great deal of welcome good sense in this thread so far.

Mr Cameron had no need even to include the promise of Parliamentary debate and voting on UK's continued EU membership in the manifesto for the 2015 UK General Election, still less a referendum on the issue which, as has already been noted, was the most crass way in which to introduce the subject into the Tory party agenda. No other UK political party included any reference to this in its manifesto pledges, which surely teaches us something about the matter, namely that the undertaking to call a referendum on it was a matter of perceived political expediency on the part of the Tory party - an expediency turned out to be mythical in any case.

The conduct and aftermath of the referendum were shameful beyond words, but the worst aspect of it - even worsre in some ways than the lies, half-truths and acrimony that characterised the campaign - is that neither those who voted Remain nor those who voted Leave nor even the majority of those who abstained were given anything like sufficient reliable information upon which to base their voting decisions.

Moreover, the UK electorate votes and pays squillions for Parliamentarians in the lower House in order that they may avail themselves of the opportunity to place trust in them to represent them and then to vote them out if they fail, so why suddenly delegate responsibility for a matter of the utmost importance for UK's future to the amateurs to decide?

Mr Cameron's allocation of almost £10m to the Remain campaign was also entirely out of order; if the government of the day wanted to persuade the electorate that to remain in EU was in UK's best interests, it should have done that in Parliamentary debate (I write as a Remain supporter in so saying).

The calling of the forthcoming UK General Election seems to have about as much reasoning as that of the referendum two years ago; its principal justification appears to be the perceived need to secure a much larger majority for the Tory party yet, even if that goal is achieved (which must surely be in some doubt), what difference will that make to the strength of UK's negotiation position when none of the other 27 EU nations have any reason to be interested in it? The 1 against 27 factor will remain, unaffected by the strength or weakness of the majority achieved by whichever party wins the UK General Election (even assuming that any one of them actually does so).

"The longest suicide note in history" -  that epithet infamously coined by one of the longest serving UK Labour Party MPs, Sir Gerald Kaufman (who died earlier this year), to describe his own party's 1983 General Election manifesto - looks soon to be overtaken as a descriptor of the manifestos (manifesti?) of both the Tory and the Labour parties (indeed, they might even come to be regarded as being in competition with one another as such), given that those two parties appear to endorse the UK leaving EU on the specious and spurious grounds of "the people have spoken" (yes, around 37% of UK's electorate voted for UK to leave EU and many of them and those who voted Remain didn't know enough of what they spoke).

I cannot imagine either EU or UK coming out of this mess unscathed; rather the reverse, indeed...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 05, 2017, 01:26:55 AM
Here Are 34 Ridiculously Challenging Problems Theresa May Will Have To Figure Out To Avoid A Brexit Disaster (https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/now-comes-the-hard-part?utm_term=.qcbkKKxaM1#.brqwMMm12r)

Just browse through all if these wonderful "opportunities".... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 05, 2017, 09:26:55 AM
(http://)
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".
Totally agree - sadly.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on May 16, 2017, 04:13:52 AM
"When I watch this video, it makes me think of Brexit."

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/863754505552375810
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on May 26, 2017, 07:12:30 AM
The General Election and Brexit...

Clearly the upcoming General Election is beyond normal as it will be followed by Brexit negotiations and all that that entails. Voters who are concerned to try to minimise the chance of an unchecked "hard Brexit" can make use of this Dashboard to see who may be best placed in your own constituency to try and achieve this. It is not about party politics, it is about democracy. (The people behind this include Gina Miller who prevented Theresa May from bypassing parliament regarding Article 50).

(Feel free to share this link with others)

https://bestforbritain.org/vote-smart (https://bestforbritain.org/vote-smart)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 02, 2017, 08:40:12 AM
http://evolvepolitics.com/ (http://evolvepolitics.com/)

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/ (http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/)

https://www.thecanary.co/ (https://www.thecanary.co/)

Apparently these are getting more read than the online version of the Daily Hate. There is hope. 👏

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on June 02, 2017, 08:26:23 PM
Though almost everyone is predicting a strong victory for her, May seems to experience more problems in her campaign than expected.
 
Here´s one case where she doesn´t do well - is caught lying or being very uninformed, then makes a poor escape from it:
"Theresa_May tells a nurse who says she earns the same as they did in 2009 that sadly there 'isn't a magic money tree"
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/870732339155836928

Another strong point of critique is her manifest absence from public debates with other politicians. Officially, she "prefers meeting the voters", but those meetings are usually staged and organized by her own party.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Holden on June 03, 2017, 12:35:03 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

Some common themes emerged:

Unchecked immigration was the major one followed by the idea of the country having more of a say in its own destiny. I wondered if xenophobia was the reason behind the immigration concerns. Many told me that they just saw streams of people who could legally come into the country putting a huge strain on welfare and especially the excellent health system that the Brits have. There was no mention of any specific ideology or ethnic group, they just saw people escaping inferior systems to take advantage of what the UK had to offer. The equitability of propping up very weak economies at the expense of their own was a concern.

One thing all were agreed on. They were very thankful that the UK had retained their own currency and not adopted the Euro.

These were the views that registered with me yet I didn't see them reflected in the media. Maybe, once again, they are out of touch or maybe my survey came from a very narrow slice of the electorate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 03, 2017, 01:06:50 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

16.1 million voted to remain in the EU; 17.4 to leave. It was not an overwhelming result. And given that 28% of eligible voters abstained, neither campaign gained anywhere near a majority.

Perhaps like T**** in the USA, the issue and the result aroused great anger, division and bitterness, including a rise in hate crimes and the murder of an MP.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 03, 2017, 01:57:32 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

Some common themes emerged:

Unchecked immigration was the major one followed by the idea of the country having more of a say in its own destiny. I wondered if xenophobia was the reason behind the immigration concerns. Many told me that they just saw streams of people who could legally come into the country putting a huge strain on welfare and especially the excellent health system that the Brits have. There was no mention of any specific ideology or ethnic group, they just saw people escaping inferior systems to take advantage of what the UK had to offer. The equitability of propping up very weak economies at the expense of their own was a concern.

One thing all were agreed on. They were very thankful that the UK had retained their own currency and not adopted the Euro.

These were the views that registered with me yet I didn't see them reflected in the media. Maybe, once again, they are out of touch or maybe my survey came from a very narrow slice of the electorate.

Oh, definitely immigration was a major concern that led to support for a Brexit.
But as per usual the popular assumptions you describe are unfounded, not to say delusional...

Long story short: people blamed real problems they have on immigration, like a lack of proper housing and the lowering of wages, and increase in social and economic inequality. But they have no one but the successive British governments to blame for that, not the EU or immigration.
See the link to a study of the London School of Economics linked below.
I have quoted the main findings.

As to the "unchecked immigration": that can only refer to immigration from inside the EU, since the UK controls immigration from outside the EU entirely by itself.
And research show that immigrants from inside the EU are NOT the cause of social and economic problems. On the contrary, economists and the business community are worried about the future lack of both cheap labour and highly qualified personel that is in short domestic supply, and the damage it can do to the British economy...

One interesting detail: most EU immigrants in the UK are from Eastern Europe.
Now.... which important member state had been pushing tirelessly EU expansion towards the East?  ::)
For geopolitical reasons and to please their American Masters friends? Right....it was Britain....

It is like Trump's climate change denial: a bogus story
But hey, we live in an era in which the way things really are, doesn't matter anymore!  :laugh:
Complex realities lead to simplified falsehoods - at least people can understand those....  8)
But the politicians don't care, and nor does their electorate...until it figured out it has been conned....and then to blame it on someone else...
I guess it is generally easier to blame other people instead of admitting you were stupid enough to be screwed over by the ruling elite....
Again, Trump's election is another perfect example in case... 8)

The British were right about the euro though.... ;)

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

- Between 1995 and 2015, the number of immigrants from other European Union (EU) countries living in the UK tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million. In 2015, EU net
immigration to the UK was 172,000, only just below the figure of 191,000 for non-EU immigrants.

- The big increase in EU immigration occurred after the ‘A8’ East European countries joined in 2004. In 2015 29% of EU immigrants were Polish.

- EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education  compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

- Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UK-born due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

- New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big
falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

- There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UK-born workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

- EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing

- European countries with access to the Single Market must allow free movement of EU citizens whether in the EU (like the UK) or outside it (like Norway and Switzerland).
 
- The refugee crisis has nothing to do with EU membership. Refugees admitted to Germany have no right to live in the UK. The UK is not in the Schengen passport-free travel agreement so there are border checks on migrants.


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 03, 2017, 05:33:27 AM
+1, Que.

Non-Brits should be aware that Paul Nuttall is the current leader of the far right UKIP party:

https://youtu.be/tKEsyIuTrO8
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Holden on June 03, 2017, 02:30:47 PM
One caveat - these are the opinions I heard, not my own. In fact I don't have an opinion on Brexit as it's too far removed to really affect me. I was just curious as to what people thought. I also explored EPL and Championship football, something I definitely have opinions about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 03, 2017, 02:45:12 PM
One caveat - these are the opinions I heard, not my own. In fact I don't have an opinion on Brexit as it's too far removed to really affect me. I was just curious as to what people thought. I also explored EPL and Championship football, something I definitely have opinions about.

That was totally understood.  :) 

And I am not surprised you heard them since these were/are an important driving force behind Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 12:47:35 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 04, 2017, 02:14:18 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q


This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 02:39:34 AM
This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.

Easiest will be I guess to blame everything again on the EU...which is naturally out to "punish" the UK (even if that would inflict damage on its own interests.... the wonders of "reverse psychology"...)

This aftermath would estrange the UK even more from the rest of Europe...

Regarding your best friends and close allies as "enemies" that are out yo get you.... the comparison with the paranoia of Trumpian America isn't far away.

Meanwhile, and most sadly so, the real threats are much closer at home. My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks... :(

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.

Q
Title: We Will Use the Muzz to Force UK Back Into the EU
Post by: snyprrr on June 04, 2017, 08:11:29 AM
"UK back in the EU, or we unleash the full hell of muzzie aggression upon Londistan,"

-any random UK leader
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 04, 2017, 08:28:00 AM
[...]
My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks... :(

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.
[...]

Seconded.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on June 04, 2017, 09:31:58 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q
I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 10:28:18 AM
I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.

A "hard" Brexit is per definition an exit without any prior negotiated deal - Britain would become overnight a "third country" without a trade deal with the EU.

Note that any trade deal is a mutual agreement between the UK and the EU, not unilateral wishful "have-your-cake-and-eat-it" thinking.

My point was that the chances of any deal to be reached before the deadline are unfortunately becoming slimmer....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 01:42:54 AM
It's interesting to see that the UK elections that were supposed to be about Brexit, then in the run up didn't touch Brexit, turn out to be on Brexit after all...

It seems that now May failed to secure a mandate for a hard Brexit, all options are open again...

LibDem doesn't want a Brexit. Labour doesn't want a hard Brexit, but it is unclear if it wants to stay in the internal market.
Scottish Conservatives want a soft Brexit, against a back drop of declining appetite for Scottish independence.
Theresa May new found "friends" (DUP) want a soft Brexit. Moderate Conservatives want a soft Brexit.

Either hardline Brexiteers in the Conservative party back down or the Tories will descend into chaos and their fate will be sealed in a 2nd general election.

Meanwhile the EU has no clue what to negotiate about.... ::)
Britain would be wise to plea for an extention of the deadline, and the EU would be wise to grant it.
My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon, since the alternative would be a hard Brexit neither the UK nor the EU wants.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 11, 2017, 04:44:53 AM
....My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon....

Q

Ever ?

Quote
"I don't think she (Theresa May) does have a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the single market," Anna Soubry, who campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU ahead of last year's referendum, told Sky News

Mon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 06:08:51 AM
Ever ?

Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

However, from the EU perspective it is doubtful it it would want Britain back on board. Perhaps in 5 - 10 years from now, but not right away....

The UK has been a big stumbling block in any progress on European integration for decades.
To bring the EU forward and "save it" the coinciding of geopolitical crises, Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

The UK will, when it has come to its senses, be offered a generous deal complete with the Erasmus student exchange program and what have you.
After which the UK wil kindly be shown the way to the door...
Any civil servant I have talked to from various member states, including the UK, knows this: we have passed a mental point of no-return - the UK will be welcome again after the foundations of the next phase of European integration has been laid. And perhaps it wouldn't want to return to a reshaped EU...

Quote
Mon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire

It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on June 11, 2017, 07:47:37 AM
Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

Problem is, for the time being the only plan that's been suggested / drafted / discreetly pushed for is a "Union" with different integration levels led by a Franco-German hard core --- a plan which is firmly opposed, and rightly so, by the Eastern European nations, Romania included.  ;D

Quote
It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

US is in a much better position than UK and will absorb the Trump shock smoother than will the UK absorb the Brexit shock. In any case, rumors about their demise have been greatly exaggerated.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 07:58:43 AM


It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q

It is. The current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet. The U.K. on the other hand is being driven off a cliff by a woman whose stubbornness, vanity and cold-heartedness seem boundless.
I think I'll stay under the duvet.😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on June 11, 2017, 08:36:18 AM
The current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet.


Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 11, 2017, 01:12:06 PM
Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

The result of the Brexit referendum is the perfect example of what happens when stupid people realise they can also play a part in democracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 02:22:49 PM
This is a bit masochistic of me, given I'd really want a Labour government, but as the clock is ticking on Brexit, this might be a good time NOT to be in government, given that Brexit will turn to an omnishit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 09:15:50 PM
it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

I agree that Brexit is likely to happen.

BTW for a future return the others have to agree. De Gaulle blocked a British entry twice, believing that Britain wasn't really adhering to the ideal of European integration. Very perceptive of him.... The Brits didn't enter the EU under the leadership of the Conservatives to be (politically) integrated into Europe, they came for the considerable economic benefits of the internal market. The result of the referendum is a reflection of that same sentiment, though I'm aware many Brits also valued the improvement in air quality, food safety and social rights that came along with it.
Anyway,  I don’t think the EU 27 are going to make the same mistake twice, which means the UK is out for now...

I am curious to see what kind of Brexit British politics will be aiming for.
If the deadline for negotiations is not extended, the choice might be between a non negotiated (hard) exit and the quick fix of staying in the internal market and remain a party to the Agreement on the European Economic Area. That fix is so quick that it could be achieved even after another general election...

It is going to be another cliff hanger.... ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on June 11, 2017, 09:28:41 PM
Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.
As if 'Europeans' exist.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2017, 09:33:35 PM

Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.

To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2017, 09:48:55 PM
As if 'Europeans' exist.

Exactly.
But let's not make things too complicated.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 10:03:36 PM
Brexit-lite back on the table as Britain rethinks its options after election (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/brexit-lite-back-on-table-as-britain-rethinks-options-after-election)



One minor possible glitch: Norway doesn't like the prospect of the UK dominating the European Free Trade Association  (EFTA).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jeffrey Smith on June 12, 2017, 07:45:13 AM
To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.

One of the guiding principles of Washington and the other American Founders was to keep out of European power politics as much as possible (not easy, and not always obtainable, since the European powers saw no reason to keep America out of their power politics).  And of course, Washington, as general of the Revolution, made sure that we here in the US were not, as dependents of Britain, sucked unwillingly into  European quarrels.   We were sucked into European quarrels, willingly and sometimes not, but at least it was on our own account, not that of Britain.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 09:52:05 AM
Anyway,  I don’t think the EU 27 are going to make the same mistake twice, which means the UK is out for now

I'm no expert, but I don't see it that way. Certainly the European Union is stronger with the UK included, just as the UK also needs Europe to prosper. It's clear that the UK needs Europe to prosper more than the other way around, but there are mutual benefits, and believe me, however virtuous DeGaulle may have been, the various leaders out there right now are far more swayed by economic benefits than he once was!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 12, 2017, 09:59:01 AM
One of the guiding principles of Washington and the other American Founders was to keep out of European power politics as much as possible (not easy, and not always obtainable, since the European powers saw no reason to keep America out of their power politics).  And of course, Washington, as general of the Revolution, made sure that we here in the US were not, as dependents of Britain, sucked unwillingly into  European quarrels.   We were sucked into European quarrels, willingly and sometimes not, but at least it was on our own account, not that of Britain.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on June 12, 2017, 10:03:19 AM
The problem is that almost everyone in continental Europe was already pissed with the perennial cherry-picking and special status the UK always demanded within the EU, so we can hardly be blamed that some have the notion of "good riddance" and don't really feel like extending another special status offering etc. after the UK gave the EU the finger with Brexit.
And the UK is not that special anymore. If the North Sea Oil dries up they are really going to be in a fix because in the long term rent extraction and globalized fraud by city banksters cannot keep an economy going.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 12, 2017, 10:07:04 AM
This is a bit masochistic of me, given I'd really want a Labour government, but as the clock is ticking on Brexit, this might be a good time NOT to be in government, given that Brexit will turn to an omnishit.

Best case scenario I can see is the Tories limp on for a bit in chaotic fashion propped up by the DUP while a Tory party civil war erupts over Brexit. Their remainers like Soubry and Davidson are already saying that the election result shows the public has rejected a hard Brexit, while the Brexiteers are demanding that we carry on full steam ahead towards the iceberg. They're in real trouble unless there's some kind of compromise position that would satisfy both sides, but it's hard to see what that could be. If the Labour "moderates" acknowledge they were wrong about Corbyn being a guarantee of electoral annihilation and start to support him, in a few months time we could have a united Labour party up against a Tory party tearing itself apart. If this also means the Tories are completely incapable of conducting the Brexit negotiations effectively they'll look like a lame duck government led by a lame duck PM. We can but hope!   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 12, 2017, 10:08:02 AM
I'm no expert, but I don't see it that way. Certainly the European Union is stronger with the UK included, just as the UK also needs Europe to prosper. It's clear that the UK needs Europe to prosper more than the other way around, but there are mutual benefits, and believe me, however virtuous DeGaulle may have been, the various leaders out there right now are far more swayed by economic benefits than he once was!
I am no expert either.  But England has a functionning army and navy.  With the US being somewhat unreliable for the next 3 years, cooperation with the UK has to be preserved on that front.  The economic issues are and will be a mess because the web of legal transcription of EU commercial directives are going to be so hard to rework.
In any event I think its going to require a great deal of compromising from all side to clean up the mess.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on June 12, 2017, 10:55:17 AM
As if 'Europeans' exist.


That's sort of the problem, you see.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 12, 2017, 10:55:36 AM
I've just read that at the 1922 committee meeting May was "contrite." I can only conclude that was a typo. Still, she can stay in No.10 till they decide to release the trap door. 😈
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 11:02:54 AM
England has a functionning army and navy

Sorry to be pedantic, but it's pertinent here to point out that the army and navy belong to the UK, not just England. It's ignorant English nationalism that has got us into this mess in the first place so better not to fuel it any further!! 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 11:04:36 AM
Anyway I'm writing this moments before a (cough) chamber orchestra performance of Mahler's 9th. It's a good job the music of the past is immune from any Brexit. 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 13, 2017, 11:49:33 AM
France Macron says the door is always open for the UK to stay in the EU

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO (http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO)

W. Schauble just said the same thing this afternoon.

Let see who picks those statements up among the UK politicians
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 14, 2017, 12:14:13 AM
France Macron says the door is always open for the UK to stay in the EU

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO (http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO)

W. Schauble just said the same thing this afternoon.

Let see who picks those statements up among the UK politicians

A generous act of your new benevolent ruler!  :)

But I think it's a mistake.... now is not the time...

Unless the UK miraculously turns into one of the driving forces behind a reformed, stronger more integrated and unified European Union.

Which it won't. The Brits have been party poopers right from the moment they became a member and only interested in free trade...

(Newsflash: the EU is, and was founded to be, more than just a free trade zone...)

The UK blackmailed the EU for rebates and opt outs, pressed a US geopolitical agenda and blocked any meaningful integration as much as it could.

I think a time out is in order. And it is time for the EU to move forward...

As far as I'm concerned the UK can get any reasonable deal safe for a return to membership. Why not remain part of the internal market?

Legally I think all of the EU 27 have to agree to reverse the British exit since the UK has already exercised its unilateral right to leave.

The exit is already a legal fact, though there is a delay for it to take effect. Reentry means renegotiation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on June 14, 2017, 02:27:04 AM
Let them stew and face a brave new world in alliance with Trump which doesn't even dare to visit the UK. Perhaps some sense will prevail in the long run.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 09:07:27 AM
Let them stew and face a brave new world in alliance with Trump which doesn't even dare to visit the UK. Perhaps some sense will prevail in the long run.

I hope so too. May must get no chance to offload blame to others; she has been the strong and stable robot. While the countdown to her demise continues unfortunately I have to live in this stew! 😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 14, 2017, 12:28:47 PM
I hope so too. May must get no chance to offload blame to others; she has been the strong and stable robot. While the countdown to her demise continues unfortunately I have to live in this stew! 😡

Yes. I feel the same. About time to finally get that revolution rolling? 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 12:49:02 PM
Yes. I feel the same. About time to finally get that revolution rolling? 😉

In all seriousness, I do wonder what the near future holds for the UK. So many issues coming to a head, and a very divided country. I think May and the tories are on the ropes yet the country is supposed to accept a Tory govt propped up by 10 nutjobs with a paramilitary background? Uh, hello???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 14, 2017, 03:24:40 PM
I think May and the tories are on the ropes yet the country is supposed to accept a Tory govt propped up by 10 nutjobs with a paramilitary background? Uh, hello???

I'm still waiting for the Daily Mail and the Sun to go into fits of splenetic fury at the very idea of a paramilitary-backed party having such influence over the government of the UK. You know, the same kind of frothing outrage we saw so much of when they were trying to smear Corbyn as the terrorists' friend.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Scion7 on June 17, 2017, 12:32:32 AM
Exit the EU, and militarily rebuild the British Empire.
The Netherlands are just SITTING there, helpless - let's get the Ark Royal in ship-shape and move in as a first step.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 18, 2017, 06:09:53 AM
Exit the EU, and militarily rebuild the British Empire.
The Netherlands are just SITTING there, helpless - let's get the Ark Royal in ship-shape and move in as a first step.

I think that may be Plan B.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 27, 2017, 02:56:45 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d45b82b0a2298dd68efb19bc55bb43b651ae1b49/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=08c281a4815ca48390552f1bd38bf34e)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 28, 2017, 01:14:34 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d45b82b0a2298dd68efb19bc55bb43b651ae1b49/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=08c281a4815ca48390552f1bd38bf34e)

Steve Bell is thankfully merciless.

I see today the cracks are already starting to show amongst the tories.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 04, 2017, 01:44:55 PM
Was Hunt's note view a slip or a slip on purpose??!!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/04/hard-brexit-means-people-fleeing-uk-jeremy-hunt-note-says (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/04/hard-brexit-means-people-fleeing-uk-jeremy-hunt-note-says)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 17, 2017, 11:48:44 AM
Come on Theresa get your act together, time is running out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 17, 2017, 01:20:05 PM
Come on Theresa get your act together, time is running out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M)

Her act is together. This is as good as she gets.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 17, 2017, 09:35:05 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f0cd4df392ec5730f15b1a816651e0ad2367fa5a/0_0_2693_1819/master/2693.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=68d6d1cdab32460711845c3451c66f90)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 17, 2017, 11:11:48 PM
My daughter sent me this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/brexit-stopped-second-referendum
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 18, 2017, 09:21:04 AM
My daughter sent me this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/brexit-stopped-second-referendum

I agree, there is simply insufficient popular support for a reversal of Brexit.

Perhaps there will be at the last minute, but by that time it will be too late....

Best case scenario would be the UK staying in the internal market and customs union as a transitional arrangement.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 18, 2017, 09:36:26 AM
I agree, there is simply insufficient popular support for a reversal of Brexit.

Perhaps there will be at the last minute, but by that time it will be too late....

Best case scenario would be the UK staying in the internal market and customs union as a transitional arrangement.

Q
Public opinion swings can be really startling.  The plot of the ratio for/against a second referendum as a function of time extrapolates to 85/15 in 6 months.  Not that I believe this really, but we may all be surprised..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 18, 2017, 09:58:13 PM
The problem is compounded by having a referendum with no contingency plan for a vote to leave the EU followed by Theresa May deciding the UK will leave by a particular date, without time to enact all the necessary legislation.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 18, 2017, 10:11:31 PM
[...] without time to enact all the necessary legislation.

Or without a plan...other than just get out...

I think the delusion that the UK just can walk away, without any serious consequences for the economy, policies in several areas as well as the relations with other countries is at the root of the UK government's "strategy" or rather lack thereof. 

Q

PS At least every Brit now knows wat Euratom (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/10/what-is-euratom-and-why-does-it-matter) is, why it is such a good idea and what happens when you leave it....
The whole Brexit will be a "crash" course (pun intended) in "what is the point of being a member of the European Union".
Like often in life you only truly realise what you had when it is gone.....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 19, 2017, 03:48:41 PM
Or without a plan...other than just get out...

I think the delusion that the UK just can walk away, without any serious consequences for the economy, policies in several areas as well as the relations with other countries is at the root of the UK government's "strategy" or rather lack thereof. 

Q

PS At least every Brit now knows wat Euratom (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/10/what-is-euratom-and-why-does-it-matter) is, why it is such a good idea and what happens when you leave it....
The whole Brexit will be a "crash" course (pun intended) in "what is the point of being a member of the European Union".
Like often in life you only truly realise what you had when it is gone.....

The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 19, 2017, 09:59:41 PM
The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.

Agreed, the EU and "saboteurs" will get the blame...

Which I find a quite worrisome prospect for the UK as a society, for its political stability and unity (Scotland, NI) and its relations with the rest of Europe.

The impact of that "fall out" might be stronger and longer lasting than the exit from the EU in itself.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 01:14:38 AM

The impact of that "fall out" might be stronger and longer lasting than the exit from the EU in itself.
Q

The sooner the civil war starts the better. Frankly I'm utterly fed up with the ignorant deluded bollocks that comes out of the mouths of brexiteers (or as I like to call them, fucking idiots).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 01:30:07 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 02:26:03 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.

When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 20, 2017, 02:32:21 AM
When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.

Yep. It feels like being sat in the back of a car that's hurtling towards a cliff edge, with any attempt to question the wisdom of it being met with cries of "How dare you! This is what the driver wants!".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 03:31:34 AM
When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.

Cameron should never have called the referendum in the first place, but he did, and now we're in the shit. His hubris, May's putting career before country, these are not to be merely disapproved of, I agree. But I am not talking about that. What I am talking about is the unnecessarily antagonistic attitudes people on both sides have brought to the situation. The holier-than-thou remainers and the "I'll shoot myself just to spite you" leavers are engaging in an ugly and stupid manner with issues that should be dealt with more seriously, respectfully, decorously. You can say that it doesn't matter, but it is clear to me that tone was a deciding factor in the referendum, and it also spells trouble for the exit negotiations, as well as the stability of our society in future.

Maybe you think I'm daft for being concerned about this, that's okay, I'm used to being looked at funny for taking the positions I do, but I believe that it is highly important to be courteous and understanding when faced with a situation that has such serious implications for the future of our country. Be angry, yes, but channel that anger into something productive, insults and bickering will not help us weather this storm.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Contemporaryclassical on July 20, 2017, 03:48:40 AM
I usually stay away from political discussion but to say the least, I'm not pleased  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 06:36:20 AM
The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.

It's started already, from reading the comments on the BBC news website. Those conniving bureaucrats at the EU say that the UK apparently can't have its cake and eat it. Reality can be so obstructive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jeffrey Smith on July 20, 2017, 08:33:25 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.

That could well describe US politics now....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 21, 2017, 11:22:52 PM
A rather harsh perspective from the former colonies:

Brexit a farce worthy of Fawlty Towers episode (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Quote
What has resulted is the long-awaited 13th episode of Fawlty Towers. Basil Fawlty, you will recall, aspired to operate his run-down B&B as a grand hotel but without tone-lowering undesirables, especially foreigners. German guests, in particular.

"Don't mention the war," sniggers Louise.

In this 13th excruciating episode, "the Major" with his tipsy and dipsy squaring up to foreigners of all kinds, is brilliantly recast as Boris Johnson, but I have to say that Margaret Thatcher would make a much better Sybil than Theresa May.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/480x270/p02bpx8m.jpg)

Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 21, 2017, 11:59:23 PM


Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q

Agghh now you've made me look at the daily express!!!!

Wonder if he's still so keen? And was he trying to change the LibDem position on capital punishment? 😝
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 22, 2017, 12:24:50 AM
Agghh now you've made me look at the daily express!!!!

Wonder if he's still so keen? And was he trying to change the LibDem position on capital punishment? 😝

So truly sorry for that.... ::) It was soo over the top that I couldn't resist..  ;)

But I can understand you now have the urge to rinse your eyes out with soap.... ???

British tabloids and their role in Brexit is a topic in itself....

Never seen so much stupidity and bigotry presented as "news" and "informed opinion".

And their position in this is fiercely nationalistic & anti-EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 22, 2017, 01:08:57 AM

British tabloids....

Never seen so much stupidity and bigotry presented as "news" and "informed opinion".

Q

Hopefully, they have become their own echo chamber with regard to the public at large. The continued influence over the tories is another matter though.

The satirical magazine Private Eye brought together pre- and post-General Election comments from said tabloids. The 180 degree switch was breathtaking: before the election May had made a "brilliant decision" in calling the election; immediately after, the same papers were declaring what an "appalling mistake" she had made...

They deserve each other.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 27, 2017, 01:06:59 PM
Update:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c2190e943e4542cbc78162294c45f94a27e94a94/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=300&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=8eebb43df30d051074f5c028452930d3)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 30, 2017, 12:37:48 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/611ba099aae6b401876561fb677d9a095d54ca78/0_0_4837_2652/master/4837.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=8e709cb83d1b78e7414fc503109ef07d)

The UK seems to be steering no longer towards the iceberg, but around it for a "transitional period"

The question is: what kind?  ::)
Hammond seems to suggest it will be an "off the shelf" option, presumably bring a continued participation of the customs union and the internal market.
How this is to be achieved is another question. Theoretically (associated) membership of EFTA/EEA  is possible with a separate treaty for a customs union  (whivh is not included in the EEA-treaty betwen EFTA and the EU).

 But the devil is in the detail. As soon as Britain wants to diverge from preexisting "off the shelf" agreements, things wil get murky and things can still go horribly wrong.

My guess is Britain will try to hammer out special arrangements but will be caught up by time,  resulting in a last- minute ditch for the present status quo on economical cooperation.  Mind you - this will still leave plenty of problems to deal with: no Erasmus programme, no Euratom , etc.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 30, 2017, 02:59:50 AM
The transitional period is pure BS as it requires an approval from the 27 members states and this would take a long time.  On the other hand, requesting an extension to the 2 y negotiations period is easy: all you have to do is ask.  If some agrement on the exit settlment is reached, the likelyhood that this would be agreed upon is high.

Why go for the complicated when there is an easy path ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on July 30, 2017, 03:04:55 AM
[...]
Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q

Yeah, Cleese already was a solid pro-Brexit bloke during the referendum days, as was another so-called/so-thought lefty, Johnny Rotten, front singer of the Sex Pistols. Well, who knows, maybe, finally, Johnny will get his 'Anarchy in the UK'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 31, 2017, 09:50:06 AM
No 10 contradicts Hammond over 'off-the-shelf' Brexit transition deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/31/no-10-rejects-off-the-shelf-transitional-deal-for-brexit)


Doesn't look good....at al..This way, the UK is going to end up empty handed.... ::)

NO deal is better than a bad ANY deal?  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 31, 2017, 04:42:30 PM
I agree with you Que.  It looks that the only way the worst can be avoided is removing Theresa May from office.  And if it happens, everything will look like a big waste.

Cameron+May: a real losing proposition
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 01, 2017, 11:16:41 PM
I agree with you Que.  It looks that the only way the worst can be avoided is removing Theresa May from office.  And if it happens, everything will look like a big waste.


Get ready for the big waste; the tories have seen how toxic May is for their electoral chances. She's kept in the job till they pull the trigger.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242)

(Scroll down to see what happened to her likeability in the short time she was (minimally) exposed to the electorate).




Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 03, 2017, 02:56:19 PM
Interesting article by the professor of government at King's College, London.
Dare one hope?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 03, 2017, 04:36:23 PM
Interesting article by the professor of government at King's College, London.
Dare one hope?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft)

The only way I can see the final Brexit deal (assuming there is one) going through without another referendum is if it's as good a deal as the Brexiteers are claiming it will be. The chances of that would appear to be somewhere between zero and bugger all and I can't see a bad deal being allowed to simply go through without the public getting a vote on it. It wouldn't necessarily have to be a referendum, it might be a general election, but either way the pressure for a public vote will surely become overwhelming.

The Brexiteers' commitment to "letting the people have their say" was, it would seem, a one-shot deal. Hopefully that stance will prove to be unsustainable. If Brexit is going to be the roaring success that they say it is, they would surely have no problem winning another vote. Given the monumental significance of the deal, whatever form it takes, it would be an act of staggering arrogance to try to force it on the country without a vote, though it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they try to do just that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on August 03, 2017, 11:08:24 PM
The main question is not what the British voters will hold of it, but whether the other 27 member states will accept anything else but Brexit. My guess is that they won't.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 03, 2017, 11:40:18 PM
Theresa May should never have signed Article 50 when she did. It was all about asserting her 'authority' and now she has none.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 03, 2017, 11:59:48 PM
The main question is not what the British voters will hold of it, but whether the other 27 member states will accept anything else but Brexit. My guess is that they won't.

I'm afraid so too..... ::)

Unless the UK changes its mind, in which case an extended exit period could be used to negotiate the terms of the UK's renewed membership, prospects look very gloomy....

Not because the EU doesn't want to make a deal, but because the UK's government has no exit strategy other than unrealistic expectations about ending its cooperation in its most successful political and economic alliance ever, but still reap its full benefits.

May's famous "red lines" make any other option than a hard Brexit impossible, no matter how much good will there is from the other side...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on August 13, 2017, 02:51:00 AM
If I would be a European negotiator on the Brexit team, my patience would be running low

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP)

This speech of Esteban Gonzales Pons, European deputy, reflects my feeling at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/v/dhiMNCyXcFg
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2017, 03:55:47 AM
Hear, hear..... :)

Great speech BTW...

Europa and its democratic values are under siege from outside and inside forces....

While the British reenact Dunkirk..... ::) But it's not going to save them this time around....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 13, 2017, 08:31:15 AM

While the British reenact Dunkirk..... ::) But it's not going to save them this time around....

Q

Yes, it is very sad. For me, the only good thing about this stupidity is the whole house of cards has been built by the tories so hopefully it is them that will be buried when it collapses.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2017, 10:10:50 PM
Great relief was caused by the announcement (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/hammond-and-fox-brexit-transition-would-not-be-way-to-remain) that hard & soft liners within the UK government agreed on a common Brexit strategy!!  :)

But on a closer look, it doesn't look like much....

One thing seems clear: the soft liners lead by Chancellor Hammond are loosing the battle.... ::)
After Hammond's idea of a continued participation of some sorts of the internal market (EEA) during a lengthy transition period was shot down, now there is "agreement" on the immediate discontinuation of the customs union. And the transition prriod will be short, like 2-3 years.

So, what will actually be the state of things during this transition period?

“That is why we believe a time-limited interim period will be important to further our national interest and give business greater certainty – but it cannot be indefinite; it cannot be a back door to staying in the EU.”

“We are also clear that during this period our borders must continue to operate smoothly; goods bought on the internet must still cross borders; businesses must still be able to supply their customers across the EU and our innovative, world-leading companies must be able to hire the talent they need, including from within the EU.”


I have no idea what this means... "smoothly operating borders" without maintaining temporarily the status quo on the movement of goods & services?  ???

Seems like another of these cakes....the ones you can have & eat....


Meanwhile Hammond is under fire (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/philip-hammond-hard-brexit-tories-uk-customs-union) of giving in too much to the hard liners...

I think he basically lost the battle for a soft transitional Brexit.
This might lead to consequences within the ranks of the Tories: pro Europeans might decide to leave the boat...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 13, 2017, 10:53:03 PM
Q,
It's a cold day in hell when a tory jumps ship 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 14, 2017, 12:36:14 PM
Q,
It's a cold day in hell when a tory jumps ship 😉

Ah, you might be right....  It would mean the end of their party.


Oh dear....

Philip Hammond and Liam Fox’s Brexit transition plan is a pipe dream (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/14/eu-brexit-transition-period-liam-fox-philip-hammond)

Now what... ? ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on August 14, 2017, 12:52:11 PM
As I have said previously a special transition regime has to be approved by every one of the 27 members states, while requesting an extention of the 24 months negotiation period to say 36 months does not.

So yes this vague and vaporous transitional period is a pipe dream.

Their article shows how unprepared they still are, in spite of  their eager "we are ready" statement.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 14, 2017, 02:32:55 PM
Ah, you might be right....  It would mean the end of their party.

Q

Call me biased and ignorant, but it seems to me that (in the UK at least) the left is generally driven by fairly fixed ideas. As the popularity of these ideas wax and wane so does the popularity of the party/s of the left. On the other hand, the right seems quite simply (ruthlessly,efficiently) to be driven by the desire to be in power. Ideas are of secondary importance and so can be ditched, recalled, reshaped, created at will, depending on what the drive for power requires. As Orwell said, power is not a means, it is an end. Because of this hollowness at the heart of the right wing there is less need or likelihood for tories to "jump ship."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 14, 2017, 04:00:13 PM
Call me biased and ignorant, but it seems to me that (in the UK at least) the left is generally driven by fairly fixed ideas. As the popularity of these ideas wax and wane so does the popularity of the party/s of the left. On the other hand, the right seems quite simply (ruthlessly,efficiently) to be driven by the desire to be in power. Ideas are of secondary importance and so can be ditched, recalled, reshaped, created at will, depending on what the drive for power requires. As Orwell said, power is not a means, it is an end. Because of this hollowness at the heart of the right wing there is less need or likelihood for tories to "jump ship."

There is a lot of truth in this, but the one issue to which it does not seem to apply is Europe. The anti-EU headbangers ensured that their party got slaughtered at the 1997 election but they didn't care. It's an obsession for them, and Brexit is their ideological G-spot.

It's looking more and more possible that we really could crash out with no deal at all. The EU has made it abundantly clear that we aren't going to get a "have our cake and eat it" deal. Whatever we get is going to be significantly worse than what we have now, and is therefore going to do a lot of damage. Labour won't want to support a deal that inflicts major damage on the country, so they'd almost certainly have to vote against it (I suppose in theory they could abstain, but that would hardly be a credible stance on an issue of such monumental importance). Even a bad deal will only happen if we agree to pay the "divorce bill", or at least a very substantial portion of it - but that will be too much for the Brexit zealots to stomach, so they would probably vote against it as well, albeit for very different reasons. In which case it won't get through the Commons. And obviously the sort of deal that would be acceptable to the hardcore Brexiteers would be completely unacceptable to Labour, the other opposition parties and more moderate Tory MPs (to say nothing of the EU). It's looking really grim.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 05:09:29 AM
Ideological g-spot.  :D :D :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 05:16:47 AM
Grim indeed, Mr Minnow.

On a happier note, when I catch sight of the front pages of the Mail and the Express there seems to be an ever mounting hysteria. I think eventually the rage will reach such a pitch it will cause the actual copies of the papers to spontaneously combust.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 05:20:59 AM
Mr Minnow,
Is your avatar Mr Austerity himself, George O. ????

I had an Osborne avatar once, but soon found it too unsettling. So I changed it back to Enoch Powell.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2017, 10:08:08 AM
Mr Minnow,
Is your avatar Mr Austerity himself, George O. ????

I had an Osborne avatar once, but soon found it too unsettling. So I changed it back to Enoch Powell.

https://www.youtube.com/v/A5qrlOOPwZ8
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 01:15:02 PM
https://www.youtube.com/v/A5qrlOOPwZ8

I'd have to say: what the fuck?


🙀
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2017, 03:27:42 PM
I'd have to say: what the fuck?


🙀

Seaside Treats was my introduction to Cardiacs and my initial reaction was similar to yours - in fact it's the usual reaction for anyone unfamiliar with them. After the five minutes of The Consultant's Flower Garden finished and it said "the end" I was wondering what I'd just seen. Then my friend said "it's not the end, there are three songs to follow and it gets even stranger." He was right!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 11:02:25 PM
I'll give em a whizz.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 16, 2017, 05:19:32 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper)

Two bits of this stood out for me:

Quote
But to understand how this seems to the Irish government and to most people on the island, imagine you are in a decent job. It is reasonably paid, apparently secure and the working environment is quite amicable. Your neighbour, who you like but do not quite trust (there’s a bit of history there) comes to you with a proposition. She’s establishing an extremely risky start-up venture with a high probability of catastrophic failure. Will you join her? Well, you ask, what are the possible rewards? Ah, she says, if – against the odds – everything goes splendidly, you’ll get the same pay and conditions you have now.

This is, in essence, what the British government is offering Ireland. If everything goes fantastically well, you’ll end up with, um, the status quo.

Quote
This is why the position paper, for all its nice words, feels less like a serious attempt to find solutions and more like an early move in the blame game that will unfold when those solutions have not been found. It claims the moral high ground: Britain is utterly opposed to a hard border. Thus, when the EU responds by saying that a hard border follows inevitably from a decision to leave the customs union, it will be the EU’s fault.

The disconnection from reality of the UK government's approach - I was about to say "strategy" but I think that would be giving them far too much credit - is such that it is indeed starting to appear as though they've looked into the abyss, realised what a colossal shitshow Brexit will be, and concluded that the only way they can save their necks is by adopting positions that they know the EU can't possibly agree to. And then blame the EU for not agreeing to those things. At which point the narrative will no doubt be that the EU is out to punish us.

Maybe the hardcore Brexiteers like Fox still believe their own guff about the sunlit uplands, but the less ideologically committed must have started to realise that Brexit is like blowing your own feet off with a shotgun as you're about to start running a marathon.

 


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on August 17, 2017, 05:12:09 AM
If I would be a European negotiator on the Brexit team, my patience would be running low

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP)

This speech of Esteban Gonzales Pons, European deputy, reflects my feeling at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/v/dhiMNCyXcFg

A really great speech, and one that absolutely reflects how Europe is seen from this side of the pond - well, the northern part of the pond, I should say  :).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 17, 2017, 07:20:18 AM
A really great speech, and one that absolutely reflects how Europe is seen from this side of the pond - well, the northern part of the pond, I should say  :).
Yes - a truly great speech. Thank you for posting it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 17, 2017, 08:33:10 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 28, 2017, 12:30:28 AM
If the UK really does have to leave the EU, Labour seem to be overtly becoming the "soft Brexit" option. Politically this is a good move - in terms of popularity within the Party and the country at large. Also it puts great pressure on the Tories, which is always a good thing. 😼
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 28, 2017, 03:50:03 PM
If the UK really does have to leave the EU, Labour seem to be overtly becoming the "soft Brexit" option. Politically this is a good move - in terms of popularity within the Party and the country at large. Also it puts great pressure on the Tories, which is always a good thing. 😼

The Tories seem to be feeling the pressure already. Headline in tomorrow's Torygraph: "Britain's fury at 'unhelpful' Barnier". Or, to put it another way, Barnier is sticking to the negotiating brief he's been given. You know, the one that he can't change - and couldn't change even if he wanted to - and which can only be changed by the other 27.

It seems they may be finally starting to realise that the Brexiteers were engaged in nothing more than empty bluster when they assured us that when push comes to shove the EU will back down. We've already had Boris concede we'll have to pay a divorce bill, which is a rather different attitude to his previous comment that the EU can "go whistle". Still, at least we're represented in these negotiations by a team of true statesmen with a well thought-out strategy - we could easily have been stuck with a bunch of delusional f**kwits who don't know their collective arse from their elbow. Just imagine!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Est.1965 on August 29, 2017, 02:26:47 PM
Brexit Negotiations?

LOL
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 29, 2017, 02:36:33 PM
Brexit Negotiations?

LOL

What's the take on all this in Scotland? How do you see it panning out (within Scottish politics)?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 03:01:24 PM
Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames. It's an ideological dream which they might well try to push as "our only hope" if the negotiations with the EU go tits up and we crash out with no deal. I can't see the Scots wanting to be chained to a country cast in the image of hard right nutters like Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. They would surely vote for independence in droves. If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Est.1965 on August 29, 2017, 03:34:52 PM
What's the take on all this in Scotland? How do you see it panning out (within Scottish politics)?

In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   :-X

Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames....If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

I wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   :'( :laugh:

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 04:10:08 PM
In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   :-X

Just how bad the final deal is will surely be the deciding factor as far as independence is concerned. If we get a deal which is pretty bad but not an outright catastrophe then maybe a majority of Scots will decide to stick with the UK as "better the devil you know". But if Brexit turns out to be a train wreck - a very distinct possibility - then independence might actually look like the less risky option. Still a leap in the dark with pitfalls aplenty of course, but that may not seem so bad if the alternative looks certain to be a disaster. And if that's the case, I doubt the Tories could rely on Colonel Davidson to spin them out of that particular hole. She may be effective when on the offensive, but when she has to defend something controversial she really struggles. Though if the Brexit deal is that bad I'm not sure even she would want to try to defend it.

Quote
I wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   :'( :laugh:

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***

Believe me, if I'd meant what those two sentences mean when juxtaposed in isolation I'd be seriously concerned about the state of my sanity!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 29, 2017, 09:01:26 PM
Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames. It's an ideological dream which they might well try to push as "our only hope" if the negotiations with the EU go tits up and we crash out with no deal. I can't see the Scots wanting to be chained to a country cast in the image of hard right nutters like Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. They would surely vote for independence in droves. If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

Never mind Ireland, Scotland will need a "hard" border to minimise the influx of refugees from England. I'm already packing.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 01, 2017, 03:53:50 AM
These negotiations seem to reflect the UK and European characters very well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 13, 2017, 09:49:19 PM
Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-taking-back-control-united-kingdom-giving-up-control/



PS No idea why Juncker is whining about Brexit - with the Brits still aboard the EU could absolutely forget all about its new agenda for further integration, like a common defense, tax harmonisations, a EU monetary fund, etc., etc.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on September 14, 2017, 06:58:10 AM
And this, from the Guardian (but wriiten by a non-Brit):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 14, 2017, 08:06:25 AM
Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

Unfortunately, reality is never going to sink into the brexiteers.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 15, 2017, 03:54:48 PM
Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all)

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 15, 2017, 11:26:08 PM
Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all)

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!

You wouldn't trust him to tell you the time.

Why is he still in a job? Any job.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 16, 2017, 12:48:53 AM
No matter how you look at it, the best solution has been staring us in the face from day one:

The UK stays in the internal market and customs union for at least a transitional period for the remaining duration of the current EU budget, which would mean about two years I believe. It would avoid a cliff edge Brexit and resolve the EU's budgetary problem.

It could be arranged by a customs treaty and the UK either joining EFTA, or joining the treaty on the European Economic Area on its own (which requires a treaty change), or by way of seperate treaties replicating it.

Since these are "off the shelf" options, the whole arrangement could be fixed fairly smoothly and quickly.

The reason why the UK seems reluctant to acknowledge the obvious, is IMO the fear that it would eventually become a permanent situation for domestic political reasons.
A new UK government could easily delay, postpone or rule out any full withdrawal from European economic cooperation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 12:57:44 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 16, 2017, 01:27:03 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

Another option would be to move to Scotland before it secedes....  ;)


Anyway, damage control by staying in the internal market seems to best option at the moment.

Eurosceptic Neo-Marxist Corbyn doesn't want that either, but might be pursuaded by the rest of his party.

And before it is all over, I wouldn't rule out a major political/constitutional crisis either.... All the necessary ingredients are there: an outdated political system,  unequal distribution of political power and of wealth, major domestic tensions and major external pressures.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 16, 2017, 03:57:42 AM
Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/uks-boris-johnson-reignites-leadership-speculation-with-brexit-plans-idUSKCN1BR0AU)

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 07:02:32 AM
Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/uks-boris-johnson-reignites-leadership-speculation-with-brexit-plans-idUSKCN1BR0AU)

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.

From the article:

Quote
Once out of the European Union, the country should borrow to invest in infrastructure

How odd - when Corbyn proposes borrowing to invest he's accused of thinking there's a magic money tree and the Tory press assures us that such plans would lead to economic collapse. But when it comes from good old Boris it's apparently fine. It's almost as if there were some kind of double standard at work.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 07:07:35 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 07:25:06 AM
For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!

That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 08:16:42 AM
That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.

It would be Royston Vasey Mk II. With a Local Shop and everything.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 02:11:50 PM
Frankie Boyle piece on Brexit (and Trump n Clinton)

https://youtu.be/VzNOy7v_4wA

NSFW 🤐
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2017, 04:51:37 PM
Worth a read:

https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/ (https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 22, 2017, 12:00:55 AM
An interesting read in the Financial Times:

Brexit is Britain's gift to the world (https://www.ft.com/content/a6b1f948-9d8e-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5)

Q

I'll take your word for it; the FT has a paywall. 😳
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 22, 2017, 07:52:37 AM
Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

 no concrete figure for Brexit bill
 some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

 Good luck Britain.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2017, 10:46:40 AM
Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

 no concrete figure for Brexit bill
 some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

 Good luck Britain.

Some reaction:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/22/theresa-may-florence-speech-brexit-plan (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/22/theresa-may-florence-speech-brexit-plan)

John Redwood's take on it is interesting: apparently we're the ones in a strong position and it's the EU that has no plan. No, really.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 22, 2017, 01:39:13 PM

- Quite interesting reactions.

On the financial front, Moodys downgrades the UK debt.....just a few hours after Theresa May speech.  And the city opened the champagne as they understood that Brexit will never happen at the rate things are going.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2017, 12:06:09 AM
Things are looking increasingly gloomy... From the ft:

Quote
Germany rejects May’s Brexit transition hopes. Berlin-led countries insist divorce bill from EU will be resolved first.

Germany and France have dashed British hopes of fast-tracking talks on a two-year post-Brexit transition deal, insisting that the UK’s EU divorce bill be resolved first. British officials had hoped that EU leaders would jump-start negotiations at a high-profile Brussels summit in two weeks by approving the opening of talks on a transition period after Britain’s exit in 2019, which Theresa May proposed in her Florence address last month. But according to European diplomats, a Germany-led group of EU countries has demanded more clarity on the long-term financial commitments Britain will honour. The UK insists it will only do this once the shape of its future relationship with the EU is clear, including a transition period. Essential stories related to this article Brexit Brexit number crunch: the final bill the EU could accept.

Berlin’s tough stance will be of particular concern to London, coming just a week after Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, met Mrs May to discuss Brexit and her Florence speech, which offered to use transition payments to cover an EU budget shortfall of at least €20bn. The setback comes amid further signs that post-Florence hopes of smoother Brexit sailing are beginning to fade. The UK’s two main negotiators are battling each other for staff and resources days before the fifth round of Brexit talks begin next week. According to an internal email seen by the Financial Times, Olly Robbins, who left his job as head of the Department for Exiting the EU last month to set up a rival “Europe Unit” in Downing Street, is openly trying to poach his former colleagues from David Davis, the Brexit secretary.

The Berlin roadblock and renewed cabinet infighting comes after the disarray at this week’s Conservative party conference, sapping Mrs May of much of the momentum she enjoyed after her well-received address in Italy. The uncompromising positions in Berlin and Paris emerged on Friday as ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU members held their first debate on the union’s approach to transition talks, including the option of approving exploratory negotiations at an October summit. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, outlined the potential benefits of opening talks on a transition deal at the meeting. He argued that they could create space to resolve the big outstanding issues on a Brexit bill, as well as recognise Britain’s recent more accommodative stance. But this option was firmly rejected by a group of countries led by Germany and France, which took a stricter view on the sequence of negotiations, according to several diplomats briefed on the meeting. Germany’s resistance suggests that the EU27 will not let up pressure on divorce issues in the coming months, in spite of the Florence overture from Mrs May. One EU ambassador told his colleagues: “We are not here to save the Tory party.”

As a gesture to recognise progress, the EU is considering starting an internal “scoping” exercise on a transition deal, where the EU27 would prepare for talks with the UK at a later stage. While an advance of sorts, this falls well short of London’s hopes that talks would begin after the summit in October. Some diplomats involved in the discussions speculated that Berlin’s tough line may be tactical to raise pressure and lower expectations ahead of a summit where EU leaders would take a more accommodating approach. Mr Barnier argued that the Berlin-backed approach should make the summit of EU leaders in October a “stepping stone” to a potential deal in December, where “sufficient progress” on a Brexit bill is acknowledged and transition talks can begin. If a delayed timetable were adopted at the summit in October it would be a serious blow to British business, which is warning ministers that an end-of-year deal on a transition period is essential to avoid a wave of companies decamping operations to the continent because of uncertainty.

The stalemate comes as Germany’s biggest business lobby has warned members to prepare for a “very hard Brexit” because Britain lacks a clear strategy. Mr Barnier’s team, meanwhile, has started meeting national customs authorities handling UK trade to make sure that they are preparing for all scenarios, including no deal. The British negotiating team hopes to make progress on the question of citizen’s rights in next week’s talks but there is not expected to be a new offer on the question of the Brexit bill. “It will be a fairly quiet negotiating round,” one British official predicted.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 07, 2017, 03:21:14 AM
None of this surprises me. All Cameron's fault for holding the unnecessary referendum in the first place without enfranchising the sixteen and seventeen year olds who will be the ones most affected by Brexit - what a mess!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on October 07, 2017, 03:46:31 AM
You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on October 07, 2017, 03:56:18 AM
This guy has not the faintest clue ... needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.
Correct. Though some American guy leads the tough Dumbest Politician Ever competetion, here's another worthy pretender.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 07, 2017, 08:28:23 AM
You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.
Yes, I do agree.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2017, 11:40:05 PM
Why it’s not too late to step back from the Brexit brink (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/07/why-its-not-too-late-to-step-back-from-brexit)

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

Quote
ARTICLE 68 - REVOCATION OF NOTIFICATIONS AND INSTRUMENTS PROVIDED FOR IN ARTICLES 65 AND 67

A notification or instrument provided for in articles 65 or 67 may be revoked at any time before it takes effect.

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on October 08, 2017, 12:06:57 AM


According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on October 08, 2017, 12:16:33 AM
More and more reports telling of May´s and / or Johnson´s possible replacement within not many weeks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on October 08, 2017, 12:28:28 AM
Why it’s not too late to step back from the Brexit brink (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/07/why-its-not-too-late-to-step-back-from-brexit)

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
As I understand it, they would revoke it and then resubmit it to start the two year clock ticking again. Apparently, they could do this indefinitely...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 08, 2017, 08:33:03 AM
Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.

You only have to look at the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg comparing the Brexit negotiations to Agincourt to see the mindset of the Brexit true believers. There's no way they would accept revoking article 50. The current Tory infighting would look like a model of sweetness and light compared to the civil war that would follow - they'd tear each other to pieces (though that may be inevitable no matter what kind of Brexit we end up with). And if the recent edition of Question Time from Brexit-supporting Wolverhampton is any guide, it seems leave voters still want Brexit come what may. All the usual delusional bollocks was there: we should just leave and go to WTO terms, the EU is being bitter and trying to punish us, we'll be fine because of all those shiny new trade deals that other countries will be queuing up to do with us, etc..

Maybe their opinion will shift when the effects of Brexit really hit home, but any talk of revoking article 50 now would turbocharge the Brexiteers' narrative of "remoaner saboteurs betraying the will of the people". It looks as though we will have to wait until we've hit the iceberg and the ship has sunk before we have any chance of sanity reasserting itself, and god knows what sort of damage will have been done by then.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on October 08, 2017, 08:54:09 AM
I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 08, 2017, 02:47:55 PM
I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.

Blaming everyone but themselves is exactly what they will do and it will certainly be the narrative of the Brexit-supporting press. There's no way the other 27 could justify to their own electorates giving us a deal that lets us keep the benefits of membership without the responsibilities - even though we're leaving - while the remaining members get no such deal. They also don't want to give us a cushy deal that encourages others to demand something similar, since that would risk the breakup of the entire EU, which the 27 quite rightly regard as the nightmare scenario, both politically and economically. But that won't stop the Brexiteers portraying the lack of such a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal as the EU trying to punish us for leaving by putting politics before economics.

The other main scapegoat will be remain voters, who will  be blamed for "sabotaging" Brexit by "talking the country down" (a phrase I expect to see pressed into service on a regular basis). There will be other excuses of course - for example, we've already seen criticism of "unpatriotic" broadcasters who have the temerity to ask awkward questions. The one thing you won't hear is an admission that Brexit was a really bloody stupid idea based on fantasy land delusions.



EDIT: right on time, here's ardent Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin)

The first sentence sets the tone:

Quote
There is no intrinsic reason why Brexit should be difficult or damaging,

Indeed - what could be simpler or more risk-free than Brexit?

Quote
but the EU itself has so far demonstrated it wants to make it so; and it has co-opted the CBI, parts of the City and, it seems, the Treasury to assist

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 08, 2017, 09:42:27 PM

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!  ???  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 09, 2017, 04:21:16 AM
Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!  ???  ;)

Q

A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

Quote
The Treasury seems unable to hear any voices except those that reinforce their preconceptions. It seems blind to the facts

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on October 09, 2017, 05:22:29 AM
A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.


The age-old problem of motes and beams, it seems.

Of course, Mr Jenkin "has form" as they say, having been one of the original "Maastricht rebels" (or b**tards, as John Major might have put it).  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 11, 2017, 03:09:47 PM
I see that at PMQs that loathsome tosser Iain Duncan Smith asked if the government would spend whatever was necessary on Brexit preparations. The man who repeatedly hammered the sick and disabled with benefit cuts is willing to spend whatever it takes on his precious Brexit. Bastard.

Predictably enough, the Theresatron confirmed that yes, the government is willing to spend whatever it takes. If only she'd said "I'm afraid we don't have a magic money tree."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:22:45 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 02, 2017, 02:29:08 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)

More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:34:46 PM
More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.

Galeotti is very knowledgeable on Russia at least, and the info on that subject is interesting. We´ll see if he is right in this case, regarding the prospects of new, UK-related revelations.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jeffrey Smith on November 02, 2017, 04:27:54 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)

As likely to annul Brexit as to de-elect Trump.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 02, 2017, 10:28:05 PM
I can't see Putin's interference lead to an annulment either - who is going to admit that the whole thing was manipulated by Putin?  ::)

Anyway, I don’t think anyone can ever prove that his interference was successful, but he did try and got the result he wanted.....

US in the hands of a fool and the UK off the cliff, Putin must be ecstatic....


Considering the way things are going with the Brexit negotiations: the EU might offer an extension of the negotiations, probably on the condition that there is at least agreement on the divorce settlement. Naturally Conservative hardliners will resist the idea of a delay, so there will be more political drama.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 06, 2017, 01:17:16 PM
US in the hands of a fool and the UK off the cliff, Putin must be ecstatic....

 :) Except that he lacks the power to really take advantage of it, having already overplayed his hand with the war against Ukraine - and not being able to deal with the boycott that will eventually lead to the end of his regime.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 06, 2017, 03:02:23 PM
More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.

However tendentious Galeotti's opinion piece was, the Graun is very far from being an EU fanzine. ::) It also has a tradition of printing pieces from people holding all sprts of opinions - including at times, people I regard as howling mad right-wingers.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 07, 2017, 02:03:57 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.

Its print circulation is dropping like a stone and it has now sold off its last assets; in future it is to be printed in tabloid format by the Daily Mirror (this may have already happened) - a sensible financial arrangement and I have nothing against the DM. It is still heavily in debt and its popular online version is losing money. Nearly all the printed media is losing circulation but The Guardian is now the smallest selling national daily and can't last much longer in its print form. Perhaps the editor needs to realise that there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 08, 2017, 02:38:53 PM
Things arent getting any better

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-envoys/eu-states-see-britain-failing-to-meet-brexit-divorce-terms-idUKKBN1D8351 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-envoys/eu-states-see-britain-failing-to-meet-brexit-divorce-terms-idUKKBN1D8351)

"It's impossible to get any bespoke trade deal in two years or so," said an EU parliament official who deals with Brexit. "And for all that time the UK would be an EU colony -- forced to accept all our laws with no say.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 08, 2017, 11:29:33 PM
there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination
, not so much based on facts, but on an irreversible fiction: as if Brussels were a dark power center that could make any decisions against the interests of the member states. This fiction is indeed so widespread that, for that reason alone, I'm content with Brexit and I think all other member states are: it will put an end to this stubborn myth, even though the consequences for the British Isles will be quite catastrophic.  :-X
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 09, 2017, 12:04:58 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.

[...]

 Perhaps the editor needs to realise that there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination.

You got me confused with your introduction, considering that The Guardian strikes me as being liberal-progressive: favouring a regulated free market economy and socially progressive. And that doesn't match the accusation of featuring hardline right wing "fake news"
I guess its support of a global trade, free market economy makes it suspect in your eyes. Even if the free market is restricted and regultated to benefit social policies, public health and the environment.

You must be a fan of Corbyn...  :)

As to the EU being an abomination...
What has the UK membership of the largest democratic economic and political alliance on the planet ever done to you?
Apart from bringing decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity?  ::)
When the UK joined is was the "sick man" of Europe. Now it is the fith-largest economy in the world and (used to be) a major player in the Union.

I agree with Christo: only if Brexit goes ahead, this festering fantasy of total self control in splendid isolation can be brought to an end.
None of the UK's major domestic issues, like social and economic inequality and rural decline, will improve by Brexit.

After the Tories have finished themselves off, I don't think Corbyn won't have a penny left to pay for his socialist fantasies.
Sorry.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 01:51:31 AM
You got me confused with your introduction, considering that The Guardian strikes me as being liberal-progressive: favouring a regulated free market economy and socially progressive. And that doesn't match the accusation of featuring hardline right wing "fake news"
I guess its support of a global trade, free market economy makes it suspect in your eyes. Even if the free market is restricted and regultated to benefit social policies, public health and the environment.

You must be a fan of Corbyn...  :)

As to the EU being an abomination...
What has the UK membership of the largest democratic economic and political alliance on the planet ever done to you?
Apart from bringing decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity?  ::)
When the UK joined is was the "sick man" of Europe. Now it is the fith-largest economy in the world and (used to be) a major player in the Union.

I agree with Christo: only if Brexit goes ahead, this festering fantasy of total self control in splendid isolation can be brought to an end.
None of the UK's major domestic issues, like social and economic inequality and rural decline, will improve by Brexit.

After the Tories have finished themselves off, I don't think Corbyn won't have a penny left to pay for his socialist fantasies.
Sorry.... ::)

Q

I read The Guardian for nearly 40 years and, as I said there was a time when it wouldn't have given the time of day to the sort of people I mentioned, now it will print any old anti-Brexit.

As for peace and prosperity, two massive foreign armies of occupation - one American the other Soviet - kept the peace, the prosperity flowed from that naturally.

There is far too much in your posting for me to answer today, I don't have the time. Tomorrow I am off to France for three weeks to top up my xenophobia levels.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 09, 2017, 02:25:28 AM
As for peace and prosperity, two massive foreign armies of occupation - one American the other Soviet - kept the peace, the prosperity flowed from that naturally.

Yeah right, the peace and prosperity that flowed in Eastern and Central Europe from the Soviet Army occupation were indeed unprecedented.

Seriously now, any comparison between the real, harsh and hard military occupation of the Eastern and Central European countries by the Soviets, and the "Pax Americana" in Western Europe is intellectually and morally indefensible.

As for EU, it has its flaws and shortcomings, just like each and every other political institution created by humans, but it's far from being an abomination. The principle is sound and the main goals are reasonable. The problem lies rather with national leaders, who mostly lack the wisdom, will and moral courage required by the challenges they face.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 02:41:10 AM
Yeah right, the peace and prosperity that flowed in Eastern and Central Europe from the Soviet Army occupation were indeed unprecedented.

Seriously now, any comparison between the real, harsh and hard military occupation of the Eastern and Central European countries by the Soviets, and the "Pax Americana" in Western Europe is intellectually and morally indefensible.

As for EU, it has its flaws and shortcomings, just like each and every other political institution created by humans, but it's far from being an abomination. The principle is sound and the main goals are reasonable. The problem lies rather with national leaders, who mostly lack the wisdom, will and moral courage required by the challenges they face.

We are discussing the European Union not the Soviet Bloc, I am making no comparison between the two. Western Europe, not just the EU flourished because of the peace and in some cases because it no longer had to pay for its own defence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 09, 2017, 02:48:56 AM
We are discussing the European Union not the Soviet Bloc

Then why did you bring in the Soviet Army?

Quote
Western Europe, not just the EU flourished because of the peace and in some cases because it no longer had to pay for its own defence.

Peace by itself is not sufficient for prosperity. Political, economic and civil freedom are essential ingredients as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 09, 2017, 02:52:04 AM
The other big problem with Brexit negotiation are the dissension within May's government.  May wants to keep a quotas for university students because they comes in official statistics.  The rest of her government wants to exclude this population because it brings in billions and is also a source cheap and highly qualified labor for UK universities.  The clash is here between the Theresa May dogmatic views and the pragmatic approach of most of her cabinet.



 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on November 09, 2017, 03:18:00 AM
I stopped taking the whole Brexit thing seriously after Boris's claim about the bananas.
IMHO, it's a disaster for any country when clowns like Johnson can rise to great heights.
And I'm just not able to believe Theresa May anymore. When political sentiments and opinions change, I bet she'd immediately jump on another train.

About the Guardian: I don't agree that newspaper editors and journalists should 'realize' what their readers want to read. I want the press to be as independent as possible. I would prefer journalists and editors to use their own brains, analyze events and developments, think for themselves, and publish it.

In these times, where people apparantly only want to hear and read the things they want to hear and read, any huge loss of readers and subscribers is IMO a proof of high quality and independence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 09, 2017, 05:36:55 AM

About the Guardian: I don't agree that newspaper editors and journalists should 'realize' what their readers want to read. I want the press to be as independent as possible. I would prefer journalists and editors to use their own brains, analyze events and developments, think for themselves, and publish it.

+1, of course.
A quality newspaper may overall lean towards one side or aspect politically, but it should represent a lot of different views, all the time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 10, 2017, 01:14:48 AM
Farage on the necessity to ignore clever people in general.


https://twitter.com/Henry_Langston/status/928910798596050944
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 10, 2017, 01:34:28 AM
I stopped taking the whole Brexit thing seriously after Boris's claim about the bananas.
IMHO, it's a disaster for any country when clowns like Johnson can rise to great heights.
I fear that this has become so frequent in so many countries that it might be a feature, not a bug...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 10, 2017, 01:44:15 AM
I fear that this has become so frequent in so many countries that it might be a feature, not a bug...

+ 1.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 10, 2017, 03:02:16 AM
A little more seriously, I think that the buffoonish side of people like Johnson or Trump might be accidental but that obviously some kinds of narcissists and sociopaths have almost ideal traits for political (and some other high level public) carreers and are shaped or selected for by the hoops one has to jump through as an ambitious young person wanting such a carreer. This might have been always like that to some extent but the present media-driven situation makes it rather worse.

(Plato might have been wrong about a lot things but he was right that one had to force philosophers to become kings/rulers because they would not want that job...)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 11, 2017, 10:28:38 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.


I have been reading the Guardian regularly for 40 years. If you have also been doing so, you'll know that it has always given house room to a wide range of opinions. I imagine you call Guardian articles 'Fake News' because you don't agree with them?

By the way, I am no knee-jerk remainer - I had to think long and hard about which way I would vote in the 2016 referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 12, 2017, 05:29:06 AM
A plea for an extension of the negotiations in The Guardian, something May is effectively ruling out by proposing the inclusion of fixed exit date in the Brexit Bill:

Quote
A crisis point is looming and, if only to avoid total meltdown, it is time for a time-out on Brexit. It is time to stop the clock. Common sense demands it; the empirical evidence dictates it. This is not to say the decision to leave the EU should be reversed. This is not to say last year’s referendum result should be ignored. This is not to say that a second referendum should be held, although the case in favour, if and when an exit deal is agreed, is steadily strengthening. It is to say that the negotiations have reached an obvious, perilous impasse and may become disastrously counterproductive.

It is in Britain’s and Europe’s interest to set back the 2019 departure date to give more time and space to resolve outstanding issues. It is the government’s responsibility to halt the needless damage already being done to the living standards and life prospects of ordinary people. A Brexit freeze would allow both sides to step back and take stock. It would mitigate the damaging uncertainty affecting businesses and investors and open the way, perhaps, for a more realistic transition timetable. It would calm, for a while, the arguments over who owes what to whom.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/11/observer-view-on-britains-shambolic-brexit-negotiations

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 12, 2017, 05:42:53 AM
(https://www.garybarker.co.uk/files/leaver-lemmings-brexit-cartoon.jpg)

Is the DUP going to follow May off the cliff as depicted here?

The EU is proposing to keep Northern Ireland in the customs union, an arrangement that is ruled out by Brexiteers.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 12, 2017, 07:12:34 AM
This tory government is looking more and more like Florentine Pazzi conjuration in the 15th century.  A dagger waiting behind every door.  How long can Mrs May endure this situation ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 14, 2017, 01:51:36 PM
Apparently the Brexiteers aren't all stupid; they've just been taken in by tweets from Russian trolls spreading nonsense across tinterweb.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia-run-fake-accounts-posted-bogus-brexit-tweets (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia-run-fake-accounts-posted-bogus-brexit-tweets)

PS Doesn't Theresa May look fabulous in that nightie?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 14, 2017, 02:19:16 PM
Remember John Redwood's recent exhortation to the chancellor to make the Treasury's forecasts more optimistic?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/14/john-redwood-brexit-money-britain-eu (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/14/john-redwood-brexit-money-britain-eu)

Oh dear!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 17, 2017, 12:39:19 AM
David Davis warns EU not to put 'politics above prosperity' in Brexit talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/16/david-davis-warns-eu-not-to-put-politics-above-prosperity-in-brexit-talks)

Perhaps the UK government should take heed of its own advice..... ::) The whole concept of Brexit is about putting politics over prosperity....

It is estimated that Dutch economy will take a medium term hit of 4% of GDP in case of a hard Brexit....
The suggestion that the major EU trading partners like the Danes, the Dutch, the Belgiums and the Germans are not sufficiently considering their economic interests, is simply ludicrous.... ???

What the UK demands are free handouts for a non member and continued cherry picked cooperation without legal guarantees and independent scrutiny, which amounts to effectively undermining the fundamentals of the EU.
That's not going to happen, not even if Brexit will set off an economic shock wave through other European economies....

Q

PS
Quote
“We are the same country we have always been. With the same values and same principles we have always had,” he said

Lies.... The UK has and will be fundamentally changed by Brexit and will be never be the same, not even if Brexit is stopped or the UK will rejoin the EU in the future. Brexit will be a turning point in British history, and in the history of Europe for that matter....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 17, 2017, 06:30:33 AM
David Davis warns EU not to put 'politics above prosperity' in Brexit talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/16/david-davis-warns-eu-not-to-put-politics-above-prosperity-in-brexit-talks)

Perhaps the UK government should take heed of its own advice..... ::) The whole concept of Brexit is about putting politics over property....

We've had Bernard Jenkin accusing others of only listening to those voices that confirm their own preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Now Davis saying the EU shouldn't put politics before prosperity. All we need now is Boris Johnson warning of the folly of touring the country in a big red bus with a misleading and undeliverable promise plastered all over it. 

Quote
What the UK demands are free handouts for a non member and continued cherry picked cooperation without legal guarantees and independent scrutiny, which amounts to effectively undermining the fundamentals of the EU.

And when this miraculous deal doesn't happen, it will all be the EU's fault for being unreasonable and setting out to punish us for leaving. This narrative has already started.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 17, 2017, 06:35:37 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEOBG9yXoAA7083.jpg)


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-WlbIgWsAAyowP.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 17, 2017, 08:57:25 AM
 :laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

What I (still) admire about Britishness: keep your sense of humour in any situation...  8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 18, 2017, 04:26:35 AM
I am not optimistic...

Firstly, Ireland will block any deal that doesn't involve an open border with Northern Ireland, which would require a special status for NI that is unacceptable for the DUP.

Secondly, the UK might be willing to pay up the divorce bill, but only if it gets the fantasy end deal it has demanded right from the start.

Seems like a no go to me.....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 18, 2017, 08:13:16 AM
The whole thing reminds me of a very context-fit joke.

During the Napoleonic Wars, a British battle ship engages a French one. In the heat of the battle, the English captain shouts to the French one: "You Frenchmen fight for money, we Englishmen fight for honour!" To which the French captain retorts: "Why, of course! People fight for what they lack!"

 ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 18, 2017, 08:41:11 AM
I forsee Hong Kong handover like images: the last ferry to Albion leaving Calais at the stroke of midnight (mid-European time, mind you)  while the band plays Rule, Brittania.

After that nostalgic scene, I don’t see why the UK should be worried about long lines of trucks: trade between the UK and (the rest of) Europe will take a nose dive anyway....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2017, 04:24:29 PM
I am not optimistic...

Firstly, Ireland will block any deal that doesn't involve an open border with Northern Ireland, which would require a special status for NI that is unacceptable for the DUP.

Secondly, the UK might be willing to pay up the divorce bill, but only if it gets the fantasy end deal it has demanded right from the start.

Seems like a no go to me.....  ::)

Q


Both valid points, but the above problems are as nothing compared to the fact that any deal will have to be acceptable to the Tory party. The problem with that is that the Brexiteer fanatics will veto any deal that they deem too soft, while the less insane wing of the party will do the same to any deal they deem too hard. It's very hard to see any deal that both could sign up to.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2017, 04:40:37 PM
:laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

What I (still) admire about Britishness: keep your sense of humour in any situation...  8)

Q

The disturbing thing is that the Austin Brexit spoof is not even that much of an exaggeration. Since the referendum I've seen plenty of interviews with leave voters who, when asked about the obvious risks of Brexit, utter such pearls of wisdom as "we're stronger than we think we are", "we'll find a way to sort it out", "there'll be a few bumps in the road but basically we'll be fine", and of course that old favourite "they need us more than we need them" (though that last one seems to crop up much less frequently now, perhaps because assurances from Farage and co that the likes of German car manufacturers would come riding to our rescue have failed to materialise).

Considering that Brexit has been driven largely by the right, it's striking just how much has changed. The British right used to pride itself on its pragmatism: their view was that unlike the left, and especially those woolly-minded continentals, we Brits could be proud of the fact that we didn't go in for reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology. No, we took the cautious, rational, small-c conservative approach.

And yet what they're now doing with Brexit is as reckless, half-baked, ideologically fanatical and unconservative as it gets. They campaigned for this extraordinarily risky outcome yet made no preparation at all for what they'd do if they won. Any plans they had went no further than spouting "take back control" at every available opportunity, a slogan about on a par with "Make America Great Again". It's incredible.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 18, 2017, 06:05:08 PM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 01:49:51 AM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.

So very true.... Who's going to admit to a mistake of that magnitude, induced by ignorance, frustration, fear, false sentiments of nostalgic grandeur and deliberate deceit?  ???

And in the aftermath, when consequences become irrefutable, nobody will be able to recall ever having voted in favour of Brexit in the first place...  ::)



Considering that Brexit has been driven largely by the right, it's striking just how much has changed. The British right used to pride itself on its pragmatism: their view was that unlike the left, and especially those woolly-minded continentals, we Brits could be proud of the fact that we didn't go in for reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology. No, we took the cautious, rational, small-c conservative approach.

And yet what they're now doing with Brexit is as reckless, half-baked, ideologically fanatical and unconservative as it gets. They campaigned for this extraordinarily risky outcome yet made no preparation at all for what they'd do if they won. Any plans they had went no further than spouting "take back control" at every available opportunity, a slogan about on a par with "Make America Great Again". It's incredible.   

What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology".... Which means Brexit is driven by both of the outer sides of the political spectrum with the more sensible middle sandwiched in between, abondended by a misguided or intimidated electorate.

I don't mean to be alarmist, but if I were British I wouldn't just worry about Brexit but also about what comes next....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 02:35:32 AM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.

How very true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 02:38:04 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEOBG9yXoAA7083.jpg)


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-WlbIgWsAAyowP.jpg:large)
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 06:53:16 AM
What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology".... Which means Brexit is driven by both of the outer sides of the political spectrum with the more sensible middle sandwiched in between, abondended by a misguided or intimidated electorate.

I don't mean to be alarmist, but if I were British I wouldn't just worry about Brexit but also about what comes next....

Q

To be fair, Corbyn campaigned for Remain, despite his history of euroscepticism. He was criticised for not campaigning enthusiastically enough, but if he'd taken the line that the EU was just terrific it would have lacked all credibility, especially after decades of anti-EU tabloid poison. And while Labour's manifesto at this year's general election may be left wing by British standards, it didn't really amount to anything much more radical than European social democracy. The constant cries of "Venezuela!" from the likes of the Daily Mail really are utter bollocks. Corbyn didn't do so much better than expected at the election because he's a fire-breathing revolutionary, he did so largely because he took a clear anti-austerity line. Even Tory MPs have reported that their experience of the campaign was that many voters - even including many of their own voters - were sick of austerity. Unfortunately for them they're the architects of austerity and there's not really a way for them to distance themselves from it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 07:18:21 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....
 
After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 08:31:49 AM
What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology"....
Wouldn't many call the EU itself a "reckless grandiose political project"? If not many had thought along similar lines, Brexit would hardly have been appeared so attractive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 09:00:41 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....
 
After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q

I think that the British left's views on the EU have changed somewhat, and that applies to Corbyn as well. There's no doubt that in the early 80s they were unequivocally hostile to the EU, as they saw it as a capitalist club. This culminated in Labour's 1983 manifesto, which included a pledge to take Britain out of the EU (without a referendum if I remember rightly). But from that point on, as the EU started to incorporate a social agenda, the British left found it increasingly attractive, especially with a very right wing government at home steadily undermining social protections wherever it could. That process has gone into overdrive since the financial crash, with Cameron and Osborne introducing a series of unbelievably vicious cuts against those who could least afford them. As a result, there is a genuine fear on the left, shared by Corbyn, that the hard right of the Tory party will use Brexit as an excuse to pursue an ultra-Thatcherite agenda, shredding public services and the welfare state even further and turning us into a country of minimal taxation, public spending and workers' rights. That fear is a rational one - we've already heard such noises coming from Rees-Mogg, there are also previous statements arguing for this from the likes of Priti Patel and Dominic Raab, and the economists who supported Brexit include people such as Patrick Minford, a fanatical Thatcherite who apparently acknowledged that such an approach could well decimate our manufacturing and agricultural sectors - but doesn't think that would be too much of a problem. It's therefore no surprise that most of the left now views the EU a lot more positively than it did 30 years ago.

I agree that Corbyn's initial response to Brexit wasn't his finest hour. His call to trigger article 50 immediately was not well judged, though to be fair he may have assumed that the government had some sort of plan in place for that - an assumption which would not have been unreasonable, even though it turned out to be wrong.

As to whether he would take us back into the single market and customs union, I think he might well want to. I could see a compromise position emerging in which he takes us into the EEA, which would mitigate the worst of the economic damage while allowing him to say he'd respected the referendum result. But he can't advocate such a position yet for two related reasons: first, there hasn't yet been much of a swing against Brexit from leave voters (polls suggest there has been a modest degree of movement towards Remain, but not much). Second, he's having to walk a tightrope in terms of trying to manage the split in Labour's vote: on the one hand, working class Labour voters in poor, deindustrialised towns who largely voted leave, and middle class metropolitan voters who mostly voted Remain. As long as those leave voters still support Brexit, any attempt to keep us in the EU - or even the EEA, which the Tory Brexiteers are portraying as effectively staying in the EU - would probably lose him a lot of those leave voters. Hopefully, when those voters see the damage caused by Brexit and start to feel that Brexit is hurting them personally, they might be more receptive to either staying in the EU, or at the very least a much softer Brexit. Even then it will be a battle though, given that the press, which is dominated by the right, will spin either of those options as a betrayal by "treacherous Remoaners". Corbyn has therefore been dealt a very difficult hand. So far, the occasional misstep aside, I think he's playing it about as well as could be expected in the circumstances.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 09:06:43 AM
Wouldn't many call the EU itself a "reckless grandiose political project"? If not many had thought along similar lines, Brexit would hardly have been appeared so attractive.

Definitely a grandiose political project, though its materialisation has been gradual, spanning over half a century.

Reckless?  ::) I think the introduction of the Euro without a sound political foundation was rather reckless (blame Mitterand, and Kohl for agreeing to it.)

But overall the EU has made Europe a safer place than it was ever before.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 19, 2017, 09:25:00 AM
^^ Well said, Mr. Minnow.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 05:11:16 PM
^^ Well said, Mr. Minnow.

Thanks :)

Interesting Guardian editorial on the Irish border:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction)

I wish I could say that the Brexiteers have given this issue the due weight and attention it clearly deserves and that the article is therefore inaccurate. Unfortunately they haven't, so it's not. The lack of focus on this problem during the referendum campaign was appalling, as is the complacency with which it's been treated since. Whenever I've seen leave voters asked about this, the usual response has been "well no-one wants a hard border so it will be down to the Irish if it happens." I'm not sure if they genuinely don't understand the implications of leaving the customs union and single market, or they do understand but just don't give a shit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 05:14:01 PM
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.

I bet you felt British and free though. :P
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 19, 2017, 06:05:16 PM
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.

Well, the Germans had the Trabant and the French had the 2 chevaux...


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI)

I’ll bet you weren’t so badly off with your Austin, Jeffrey !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jeffrey Smith on November 19, 2017, 06:25:00 PM
Thanks :)

Interesting Guardian editorial on the Irish border:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction)

I wish I could say that the Brexiteers have given this issue the due weight and attention it clearly deserves and that the article is therefore inaccurate. Unfortunately they haven't, so it's not. The lack of focus on this problem during the referendum campaign was appalling, as is the complacency with which it's been treated since. Whenever I've seen leave voters asked about this, the usual response has been "well no-one wants a hard border so it will be down to the Irish if it happens." I'm not sure if they genuinely don't understand the implications of leaving the customs union and single market, or they do understand but just don't give a shit.

Question from the other side of the Pond.  (I think I know what the answer is, but I don't know for sure.)

Does membership in the EU automatically preclude Ireland from maintaining an open border? More broadly are countries in the EU limited in the terms of trade agreements  they can make with nonEU countries?

BTW, I once worked for a man who had a Jaguar. It was at the mechanic's almost every week. He finally traded it in for a Mercedes-Benz.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 11:38:33 PM
Question from the other side of the Pond.  (I think I know what the answer is, but I don't know for sure.)

Does membership in the EU automatically preclude Ireland from maintaining an open border? More broadly are countries in the EU limited in the terms of trade agreements  they can make with nonEU countries?

Any customs area has to be a closed system.
If Ireland and NI had an open border while NI was outside of the EU, all imports would enter the EU through that border to avoid import duties and checks on EU health & safety standards. Once goods enter the EU customs union, they can freely circulate. This is called "free movement of goods" and forms, together with the free movement of services, capital and perons, the foundation of the internal market - "The four freedoms".

The UK doesn't want to remain part of the internal market nor of the customs union, but still insists on the continuation of "frictionless" trade with the EU.

Anyone who can figure that one out is IMO eligible for the Nobel Prize in economics....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 11:52:07 PM
Well, the Germans had the Trabant and the French had the 2 chevaux...


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI)

I’ll bet you weren’t so badly off with your Austin, Jeffrey !
I drove a 2CV for over 10 years and it was reasonably reliable. A Brexiteer could probably also argue that Britain used to build better cars before they joined the common market.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 20, 2017, 01:51:30 AM
I drove a 2CV for over 10 years and it was reasonably reliable. A Brexiteer could probably also argue that Britain used to build better cars before they joined the common market.
OT
My 2CV was very good in snow. It never quite recovered from my ill-advised decision to put it through a car-wash.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: zamyrabyrd on November 20, 2017, 01:55:11 AM
Definitely a grandiose political project, though its materialisation has been gradual, spanning over half a century.
Reckless?  ::) I think the introduction of the Euro without a sound political foundation was rather reckless (blame Mitterand, and Kohl for agreeing to it.)
But overall the EU has made Europe a safer place than it was ever before.

You've got to be kidding! Unvetted immigration throughout the EU is at the CAUSE of grotesque, bloody terrorist attacks.
If it weren't an already agreed on policy from back then, all those countries who opened their doors to the Trojan Horses would not have been so in accord with one another. Even countries like Greece who thought they would benefit from economic mooching is paying the price with wave after wave of "refugees" on their shores they cannot cope with.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 03:46:55 AM
I bet you felt British and free though. :P

Too right. As long as I get a blue passport I don't care about the economic self-harm the headbangers want to inflict. Let's go back to good old European wars too. Those bloody foreigners that picked our fruit n veg and saved lives in our hospitals need to go back home so that we can bomb them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 03:49:38 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....
 
After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q

I think Corbyn is ambivalent about the EU, as am I. The pros outweigh the cons, but the neoliberal aspect is a concern, which is what did for Greece.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 20, 2017, 04:19:39 AM
He's at it again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html)

Common sense policies for a happier Britain. Marvellous.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 04:25:22 AM
He's at it again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html)

Common sense policies for a happier Britain. Marvellous.

I reckon he's a plant by Labour to ensure a massive Labour victory.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 20, 2017, 10:00:06 AM
You've got to be kidding! Unvetted immigration throughout the EU is at the CAUSE of grotesque, bloody terrorist attacks.
If it weren't an already agreed on policy from back then, all those countries who opened their doors to the Trojan Horses would not have been so in accord with one another. Even countries like Greece who thought they would benefit from economic mooching is paying the price with wave after wave of "refugees" on their shores they cannot cope with.

You must be kidding, since the admission of immigrants from outside of the EU is the primary perogative of the individual member states....  8)
And that includes the UK.....

http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/who-does-what/more-information/explaining-the-rules-why-are-there-eu-rules-and-national-rules_en

Obviously, European countries admitted people they shouldn't have admitted.
Unfortunately, judging from its track record,  the US doesn't seem to have done much better....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 21, 2017, 05:23:35 AM

Obviously, European countries admitted people they shouldn't have admitted.
Unfortunately, judging from its track record,  the US doesn't seem to have done much better....


Indeed. The worst was the immigration of religious extremists in 1620.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 21, 2017, 06:39:10 AM
After reading a sensible, neutral, factual piece on the german coalition collapse in Der Spiegel, I read this amazing piece of « alternative political thinking » in The Independent:


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/germany-angela-merkel-what-it-means-for-brexit-a8064861.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/germany-angela-merkel-what-it-means-for-brexit-a8064861.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)

What’s truly amazing here is that this very long article is not really on the current german political situation, but is all about GB and Brexit fantasy scenarios. The article’s speculations, « what ifs » and other convolutions and fabulations are a reflection of what’s wrong with UK politics: a tendency to believe the unbelievable, to invent and give credibility to bizarre scenarios, to ignore hard facts and refuse to face complex issues.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 07:01:09 AM
The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated. (Technically it was only pre-negotiations.)
There is an acting government and these parties still have a majority in the parliament (although the SPD does not want to continue the coalition) there is no danger of anarchy or disorder at all and especially for foreign policy it is quite irrelevant if it takes another few months for a new government to be established or if there are going to be elections again in spring.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 21, 2017, 08:05:54 AM
The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated.
Then you are going to love this front page of Liberation, a mildly leftist newspaper.
(http://md0.libe.com/api/libe/v2/paperpage/248092/?format=jpg&size=x500)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 09:17:50 AM
It is not wrong that Merkel is clearly past her prime and the main reason she is not forced to step down is that her party does not have anyone better. (And because they are still the strongest party they also gloss over the fact that they had their worst election result in the last 50 years.) But this very different from a public crisis or so.
There are still several options, rare for Germany but constitutional and all in good order: re-negotiate for another coalition, minority goverment or new elections in early 2018.
(The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions, so they will again be forced to negotiate uncommon ones.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 21, 2017, 11:44:56 AM
The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions
A (german) colleague thinks that the FDP could fall below 5% because of their poor communication in this unfruitful negotiation process.  If this was the case,  they would be out of the picture and putting together a coalition would be relatively easy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 12:07:12 PM
Right after the election and before any negotiation there was an article in a Swiss newspaper (probably NZZ) that warned the FDP to join the government and also predicted that next time (of course he meant 2021) they would again be kicked out of parliament and never come back.

Polls for elections right now are inconclusive but most predict very little change (so FDP would be in), except that Merkel's party would lose another 2-3%. But at ca. 29% they would still be the strongest! Even if you divide the 10% of the FDP somewhat evenly between other parties, it will not become easier. There would still be only one two-party-coalition ("grand coalition" of the last 4 years that was punished with the weakest results ever, so the SPD decided that they could not continue) and no feasible three-party-coalition because nobody wants to go with the right-wing AfD.

This is derailing this thread and I don't think we want a German Politics thread but it cannot be denied that it is a mess with no easy way out. But it is mostly a mess for our stupid parties and politicians, not anything that will lead to real instabilities or riots or something (you know, one would have to step on the lawn for riots, so Germans don't do it).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 21, 2017, 12:27:27 PM
As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jeffrey Smith on November 21, 2017, 01:40:57 PM
As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:

There seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 21, 2017, 01:57:45 PM
There seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jeffrey Smith on November 21, 2017, 02:10:42 PM
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?

To some extent, but not as clearcut. The basic divide is probably best thought of as urban v rural and/or inland v coastal. But immigrants can be found all over: farm workers in the rural areas, etc. Texas is heavily Republican (but not thoroughly, as Gurn and Brian can bear witness) and also heavily Hispanic, for instance.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 25, 2017, 03:40:11 AM
Ten days to crack Brexit deal, EU tells May (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/ten-days-to-crack-brexit-deal-eu-tells-may-idUSKBN1DO0SA)


I'm still pessimistic, time to brace for impact....  ::)

Brexit: How the Netherlands is braced for 'no deal' (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41986090)

I guess due to our history we are a risk averse nation that likes to be prepared....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 25, 2017, 11:56:43 PM
Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8)

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 26, 2017, 02:11:05 AM
Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8)

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....

It is interesting how much fuss is made on the UK side about this exit bill.
For the EU it is just a settlement of outstanding financial obligations that will avoid a hole in the current budget.
If the UK will pay up its contribution, it will also be entitled to any payments out of the EU funds, which make will the total sum net out some £20 billion lower.
Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

The total of £111 billion all the rebates the UK has ever enjoyed does put things more in perspective, I think.
As does the estimated £72 billion each year in damage to the UK economy that is now predicted by 2021....

https://www.businessinsider.nl/the-economic-cost-of-brexit-in-gdp-2017-11/?international=true&r=UK

What is the saying again? Penny wise, pound foolish?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 26, 2017, 02:02:15 PM
Another giant stride towards those sunlit uplands has been taken thanks to Liam Fox, who is insisting that there can be no settling of the Irish border question until a trade deal with the EU has been agreed. So if you thought the sequencing of the talks is one of the few things which has been agreed, well Fox is doing his best to scupper even that. Naturally, he's blaming the EU for the lack of progress.

This is the same Liam Fox who, as defence secretary, was forced out of the government just a few years ago for taking his best man, businessman/lobbyist Adam Werritty, into official meetings - despite the fact that he had no security clearance. Fox also had to pay back Werritty's expenses after charging them to the state. How fortunate we are to have this peerless statesman back in government and making such a valuable contribution to Brexit.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 27, 2017, 10:12:26 AM
Congratulations to Kate Hoey, who has graduated from the Donald Trump Academy of International Relations with this stellar example of diplomacy in action:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mp-says-ireland-would-have-to-pay-for-hard-border-without-brexit-deal-1.3306727 (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mp-says-ireland-would-have-to-pay-for-hard-border-without-brexit-deal-1.3306727)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 28, 2017, 10:16:04 AM
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.  I am quite interested to see the ones coming forward to derail the negociation process .

This is an easy way to spot Teresa May rivals among the tories.

In the meantime the GPB is soaring.  Too bad for those who forgot to stock up on the hyperion opera-rara and other UK labels !!!

Edit: UK government denies the Telegraph article.  So which one is the fake news ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 28, 2017, 11:17:26 AM

[...]

Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

Q


No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 28, 2017, 11:24:40 AM

No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.

I said "UK", but should have said "UK government".

My apologies to the 48%....  :-\

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 29, 2017, 04:24:19 AM
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.
We know what the denials are all about.  This is what David Davis was saying Sept. 4th

https://www.youtube.com/v/O6zEjQLTkYU
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 01, 2017, 03:49:18 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain’s own making, but Ireland’s problems were the EU’s. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK’s offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2017, 04:31:37 PM
A summary of what the Brexiteers promised, and where we actually are:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/01/the-brexit-climbdown-is-far-from-what-leaving-was-meant-to-look-like (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/01/the-brexit-climbdown-is-far-from-what-leaving-was-meant-to-look-like)

Funnily enough, the Brexit-supporting press doesn't seem too keen on holding them to account for this embarrassing discrepancy. "Brexit will be great!" seems to have been replaced by "it's worth it no matter how high the cost." Who'd have thought it?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2017, 04:37:21 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain’s own making, but Ireland’s problems were the EU’s. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK’s offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

An issue of such acute political sensitivity and importance - and, as with everything else, the Brexiteers had literally no fucking clue what to about it if they won. No plan of any sort. Just blithe assurances that it wouldn't be a problem because the EU would let us keep the benefits of single market membership without any of the obligations, so no plan would be needed. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 02, 2017, 01:54:45 AM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain’s own making, but Ireland’s problems were the EU’s. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK’s offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

But mind that the "internal market" is not just about borders, it a single regulatory framework with shared rules on goods, services and capital. These shared rules ensure that incoming and outgoing goods or services meet commonly agreed standards. That is why they can freely flow within the EU.

For instance: to assure the free flow of agricultural produce between NI and Ireland and the rest of the EU, the produce will have to meet EU standards. And for that to happen, NI needs a regulatory framework that follows EU regulations. This needs to be separate from that of the rest of the UK if the UK deviates from those EU regulations.

A solution could be to create limited free trade by ensuring EU-conformity in key economic areas and exclude the rest, or accept the economic and regulatory distortion that will result from it and try to geographically limit its impact. Not a very attractive prospect from the EU....

The customs union is not an easy issue either - the customs border has to be somewhere.
Since trade between NI and the rest of the UK is considerably stronger than with Ireland,  it doesn't make sense from an economical point of view to shift the customs border Eastwards: the damage would be greater than the benefits. At least economically. ...

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 03:10:12 AM
I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

[...]

Q


Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 02, 2017, 03:54:03 AM

Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)

I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 08:16:56 AM
I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q

I don't recall a moment of greater political chaos than the present time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 09:23:18 AM
On April 1st, 2018 Theresa May will announce to parliament: "I have decided that Britain will not, after all, leave the EU. It is a ridiculous idea, and one that if put into action, seems likely to destroy our economy and the lives of many of our citizens and their families, not to say our academic institutions, our efforts to preserve our ecology and climate and much else of value besides.

My government's more extreme Brexiters are frankly delusional in their beliefs about the benefits of leaving the EU and the myriad complications of doing so, not least the imperiling of 30 years of peaceful cooperation in Ireland. President Trump, it is clear, will not offer the UK any sort of favourable trade deal and, however much some of us may not like the EU, we must stay within it and continue to receive the considerable benefits of membership of what is a very successful trading bloc. Our grievances and differences with the EU must be worked out in partnership with them as it continues to evolve.

I have presided over the most inept and shambolic period of government that this country has experienced in modern times. It is clear that I must now resign, and dissolve this government lest our country come to further grief under the leadership of a fanatical Brexiteer. It is time for Her Majesty's loyal opposition to take the reigns of power*.

As for me, having finally realised that I have no principles and come to terms with my own robotic but somehow also indecisive ineptitude, I shall be taking poison seeking political asylum in Maidenhead. Farewell!

*Such as that now is.


Not!  ::)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 02, 2017, 10:17:41 AM
Dammit Turbot, you got me all cheered up then!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Scion7 on December 02, 2017, 10:39:18 AM
"Steady!  Steady!   Steady!"

All will be well at home, the Royal Navy will be rebuilt, then we can get down to some serious empire building again.
I'd recommend starting with Holland, but by that time the bloody country will be mostly underwater again . . .
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 10:40:14 AM
^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 02, 2017, 11:10:18 AM
I'd recommend starting with Holland
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway
(https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/spiegel-royal-charles.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 02, 2017, 12:24:00 PM
^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.

I should have noticed the "April 1st" ....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 01:32:06 PM
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway
(https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/spiegel-royal-charles.jpg)

What an outrage! This must be returned by the Rijksmuseum to Britain immediately as part of the Brexit divorce bill.
I blame Charles II whom was apparently chasing a bluebottle round his palace whilst the Dutch were invading the Medway. Henry V would have been turning in his grave.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 04, 2017, 05:08:02 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 04, 2017, 05:53:23 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137

Yes, that seems to be the case. I'm no admirer of Tony Blair but I totally agree with him on Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 04, 2017, 07:50:12 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176


Yes, quite. Arlene Foster and the DUP have said straight away that they're not happy with this.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 04, 2017, 03:34:51 PM
Henry V would have been turning in his grave.
Well, two weeks ago you heard Walton's reading of this episode - did he actually make Henry V spinning in his grave?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 12:20:10 AM
So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

What I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

But it does make sense from their point of view. What about a Brexit exclusively for "Little England"?  :D Seems to suit everybody's needs.... ::)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9d4fc46aab2e3ed3ce927c1cbb5fe2af62199ede/28_16_4810_3231/master/4810.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=6d3c60ed8c7628b05822e79e655419d3)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 12:22:59 AM
I guess I'm  not the only one who sees parallels with the 1930's.....

(http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/neville-chamberlain-seen-here-at-heston-airport-after-returning-from-picture-id591972954)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 05, 2017, 12:39:49 AM
Quote
And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.
The UK cannot be kept hostage by the DUP.  Eventually, the agreement will go through.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 05, 2017, 12:43:36 AM
Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 12:55:30 AM
Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537

After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 02:05:06 AM
After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q

I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 05:07:24 AM
I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.

I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 05, 2017, 05:10:06 AM
At any given time, the worst prime-minister in the history of any country with a parliamentary system is yet to come.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 05:57:35 AM
So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

Even if the DUP hadn't thrown a spanner in the works, the problem which you mentioned earlier would still have been there, namely that:

Quote
If Ireland and NI had an open border while NI was outside of the EU, all imports would enter the EU through that border to avoid import duties and checks on EU health & safety standards. Once goods enter the EU customs union, they can freely circulate.

The proposed "regulatory alignment" might have solved that problem for Northern Ireland, but it wouldn't solve it for goods coming from the the rest of the UK. Why would the EU allow goods from England, Scotland and Wales to get round EU import duties and checks on health and safety standards by using an open border in Ireland? Even if a fudge is agreed in the next few days that everyone can live with for now, that doesn't resolve the problem, it just kicks it into the trade talks, and once there it can only be fudged for so long: sooner or later a definite decision will have to be made.

One way round this which is being mentioned on the lunchtime news is for regulatory alignment to apply to the whole of the UK. That would answer the DUP's objection of not treating NI differently to the rest of the UK, but I still don't see how it would work: that alignment might be wide-ranging enough that it effectively amounts to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name. Since the UK government has ruled out membership of both, it would be very hard for them to argue for a scenario in which we are technically outside both but in practice effectively still in. It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it, and that's not going to happen if we're still aligning our regulations to those of the customs union and single market.

On the other hand, regulatory alignment might be restricted to just a few specific, limited areas, just enough to keep an open border in Ireland but nowhere near a comprehensive agreement. Alignment thus limited would no longer amount to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name, but that would just take us back to the problem of the UK using an open border in Ireland to get round EU duties and regulation checks: there is no reason to think the EU will allow that to happen, in which case, what then?
 
Quote
What I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

Nicola Sturgeon has been pushing the idea of Scotland staying in the single market since the referendum. The UK government has always dismissed the idea of different parts of the UK having different arrangements with the EU as impractical, but they can hardly say that now, not when they've conceded that it could work for NI.

What a triumph this is turning out to be for May: shafted by the party she bunged a billion quid, which she only needed to do because of an election she didn't need to call, designed to give her a mandate which she now cannot claim to have. Genius.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 05, 2017, 08:06:06 AM
It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it...


Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 08:13:53 AM
We have not one but two unelected PMs: May and Foster. One of them will have to go...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 08:42:40 AM
On a personal note, I'm looking forward to my next local party get together. We have an honorary guest and speaker by the name of Keir Starmer. 😊

(Unless he's too busy to attend!)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 10:41:19 AM
I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q

Largely agree with you although Britain was so poorly prepared for War in 1938 that by the law of 'Diminishing Marginal Utilities' (is that right? It's a long time since I got a 'D' at A-Level Economics) Britain made better use of the time. I know there is an argument that if Britain stood firm in support of the Czechs the German High Command were prepared to overthrow Hitler to prevent war in September 1938 but recent evidence suggests that this was unlikely.

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 11:26:24 AM

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).

Well this is the person who decided it was a good idea to call a general election. 🤔

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 11:29:25 AM

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉

Works out perfectly!  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 05, 2017, 12:49:47 PM
going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 12:52:46 PM
"The bottom line is that the May government is facing an impossible task,” said Sarvamaa, adding that promises made to British voters during the referendum campaign and before June’s snap election could not be kept. The government was in “an ever-worsening, deteriorating cycle,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter      (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 02:46:32 PM
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
Looks better on paper I think. Anyway you are deflecting to draw attention away from that precious artefact that you Dutch stole from Charles II.  :o
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 05:03:21 PM

Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.

It would indeed be an excellent outcome, but as you say, May is utterly spineless, which means she wants to avoid confronting them at all costs. Her problem is that she will have to make a decision sooner or later whether she likes it or not. David Davis is trying to sell the idea of "regulatory alignment" for the whole of the UK and EU to his party on the grounds that "alignment isn't the same thing as harmonisation". Well, that's technically true. But there is not a snowball's chance in hell of the EU agreeing to this idea unless the degree of alignment between UK and EU regulations is very high. They aren't going to agree to an open border and "frictionless trade" if the differences between UK and EU regulatory regimes are at all significant, because if there are significant differences then the two regimes are, by definition, not aligned - they are divergent. So the most Davis can argue is that "regulatory alignment" means we don't have to have regulations and standards which are 100% identical to those of the customs union and single market - we can have a system which is very slightly different, but not very much.

That isn't going to appease the Brexit ultras. They want a bonfire of EU "red tape" to "set Britain free". They can't achieve that if we've already agreed to have a regulatory system only minimally different to the EU. And indeed, our old friend Jacob Rees Mogg is already unhappy about it, as this article mentions:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/uk-brexit-team-is-walking-a-tightrope-to-reach-first-phase-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/uk-brexit-team-is-walking-a-tightrope-to-reach-first-phase-deal)   

According to the article, "This brought instant spluttering from Conservative backbenchers, with Jacob Rees-Mogg demanding “indelible red lines” on the principle of escaping Brussels regulation, not cleaving closer to it."

So May has to decide: does she confront the Brexit fanatics with the reality that their hard Brexit is an undeliverable fantasy, or does she cave in to them and make the ruinous prospect of crashing out with no deal that much more likely?

Of course, if Davis means that regulatory alignment will only apply to a few specific areas necessary to sort out the NI problem then presumably there will be a great many areas of regulation in which we are not aligned with the EU. That would please Rees Mogg and co, but it just takes us back to the problem mentioned earlier: why would the EU let the UK use an open border in Ireland as a back door into the single market and customs union as a way of avoiding EU duties and regulatory checks?

However reluctant she may be to acknowledge it, May is going to have to jump one way or the other, and the choice depends on whether she puts country or party first. If the former, she'll tell the Brexit headbangers on her backbenches (and cabinet) to sod off and try to negotiate something that at least mitigates the worst of the damage. If the latter, she'll cave in to said headbangers, and then try to pin the blame for the ensuing chaos on the EU in the hope that the tactic of blaming dastardly Johnny Foreigner does the trick. You know the drill, "standing up for Britain" against an "unreasonable and intransigent EU", that kind of thing. The likes of the Mail and the Express would love it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jeffrey Smith on December 05, 2017, 06:32:08 PM
The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 06, 2017, 04:53:49 AM
David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html)

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 06, 2017, 05:08:15 AM
David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html)

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!

It gets more and more shambolic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 06:36:07 AM
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 06:49:46 AM
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.


There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 07:04:21 AM
The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....

We wouldn't have the influence over EU regulations that we currently have and we'd still have to stick to them (or something very similar). So it's obviously not ideal. But a scenario which more or less replicates our single market membership would hopefully mitigate the worst of the economic damage. The alternative being pushed by the hard Brexiteers is to walk out of the negotiations with the EU and go to WTO rules while we wait for the rest of the world to rush to our door to offer us fantastic new trade deals on terms which favour us. The likes of Fox and Paterson may believe this delusional drivel, but outside the hard Brexit bubble the general view is that it would cause enormous damage. Given the choice between that or a Norway-type arrangement, I'd take the latter in a heartbeat.

Of course, the option that makes most sense is to stay in the EU, where we have the benefits of single market membership and influence over the regulations, but that won't happen unless or until there is clear evidence of a decisive swing in public opinion against Brexit, and that means leave voters switching. That may well happen as the Brexiteers' promises continue to unravel, but it hasn't happened yet, nothing like enough anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 09:33:20 AM

There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...

All things considered, I'm sure they have been done.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 09:58:42 AM
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 10:07:21 AM
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.

Davis also told the Brexit select committee that the assessments went into "excruciating detail". Now they apparently don't exist.

The best comment I've seen on this is that Davis' excuse can be summarised as "the dog would have eaten my homework, if I'd done it. And if I had a dog."

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 02:12:28 PM
Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 04:49:13 PM
Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.


They are entirely bogus. The ultra-brexiteers are dreaming of a deregulated neo-liberal fantasy where workers have no rights and the rich pay little or no tax. And who do Michael Gove and Boris Johnson work for*?

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 07, 2017, 12:07:24 AM

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.

Sir James Dyson (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sir-james-dyson-brexit_uk_5a08336fe4b01d21c83eff64) ?  ::)

I guess if you'd want the UK turn into a society like the US, Brexit is the perfect way to go...

But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 07, 2017, 01:25:26 AM
But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 07, 2017, 04:32:26 PM
What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.

The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 07, 2017, 11:40:15 PM
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 07, 2017, 11:41:26 PM
A 'preliminary agreement' now settled.

Detailed content:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

Includes, concerning Northern Ireland:
"49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 12:13:04 AM
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 12:32:24 AM
Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2017, 12:39:06 AM
Pardconditions ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 08, 2017, 03:31:54 AM
The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour.


Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 04:14:50 AM
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.

Lord, I said I was ignorant.


In the glorious days ahead, when we have left the EU, we People of Albion shall revert to the groat.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 04:16:45 AM
I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q

And what might Scotland and Wales make of all this?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 04:37:43 AM
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2017, 06:17:11 AM
I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q

Exactly right. They've fudged it for now in order to move on to the trade talks, and as long as we agree to more or less replicate single market and customs union regulations the border won't be a problem. But if we say that at some point in the future that will no longer apply, and a significant degree of regulatory divergence is therefore a distinct possibility - indeed, if the Brexit ultras get their way we'll get divergence on steroids - then the border problem will reassert itself. Even if alignment were to be maintained in the limited areas specific to cross-border trade in Ireland, significant divergence in other areas means the EU will want to know that goods entering the EU from anywhere in the UK - not just NI - meet EU regulatory standards. If the Brexiteers think the EU will just sit back and allow the UK to get round those checks by using an open border in Ireland as a back door into the customs union and single market they're in for a shock. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2017, 06:22:12 AM

Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)

You're quite right. I repent of my sinful ways, and undertake to purge my mind of these base heretical thoughts by performing a daily ritual of self-flagellation while praying fervently before an icon of Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2017, 11:24:21 PM
Expats are not happy....

EU nationals can stay in the UK, but only after under certain conditions and restrictions.
And the protection of their rights falls under the jurisdiction of the EU Court of Justice for only 8 years.

I can already tell you now that the European Parliament is not going to accept this, and that the EU negotiators very well know this.....  ::)

Both EU and UK expats will become "land locked" - they will loose their rights of residence after more than 5 years of absence.
And of course UK can't resettle elsewhere in the EU freely as before.

The Tories tell us the rights of EU citizens are now secure. It’s a lie (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/08/eu-citizens-rights-brexit-bargaining-chips)

British citizens living in EU say Theresa May has 'sold them down the river' for deal (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizens-rights-frontier-workers-theresa-may-deal-northern-ireland-british-in-europe-a8100116.html)




On the other hand anybody born in Northern Ireland is entitled to Irish citizenship and can therefore retain or acquire full EU citizenship.

Brexit: Northern Irish will be able to remain EU citizens under deal.Two sides agreed the passport deal would continue after Brexit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-keep-eu-citizenship-irish-border-a8099176.html)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 11:42:21 PM
I have read the complains but find them overblown.  EU citizens living in the UK will still be able to relocate their families.  Eventually UK common law will apply to them.  I find this quite normal as it is the country they live in.  As far as the UK citizens in the EU the issue is wether they will keep the free mobility within the 27 member states.   At this point this right isnt clearly spelled out.  But after all, they can apply for EU citizenship if they want to.

The Irish part is on the other hand quite foggy at this stage and everybody is reading what they want.  At this point nothing is settled and depending on how the future talks evolve the irish deal will evolve.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 09, 2017, 05:49:29 AM
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.


reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 09, 2017, 08:03:12 AM

reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).
Wiki says Etruscan, and the latin spelling Kalendae with a K seems to support this root.  French has fewer words than english but uses lots of expressions, which are difficult to translate, like this one.

For the Irish and probably also the British, this article

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1209/926089-brexit-negotiations/ (https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1209/926089-brexit-negotiations/)

recounts the final turns of events in the UK-EU negotiations around the northern island issue.

 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 09:08:13 AM
it was already a Latin saying "ad Kalendas Graecas" meaning in the indefinite future or often "never" because the Kalendae (first day of the month, the more famous Ides (of March) were in the middle) was only a feature of the Roman calendar, not of the Greek.
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 09, 2017, 01:03:11 PM
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".

In Romanian it's either "la calendele greceşti" (literal translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas"), or --- and this is far more frequently used --- "la Paştele cailor" (literal English translation: "on the Easter Day of the horses").
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 01:43:42 PM
Interestingly, I never encountered a German translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas". The few people (typically Latin teachers and the like) who would use the expression at all would use the Latin. I guess there are a few more sayings, like "when Christmas and Easter fall on the same day" or sth. like that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on December 09, 2017, 02:37:00 PM
"When pigs fly"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 09, 2017, 02:54:37 PM
Now the first skirmishes are behind us, everybody is looking ahead... and concerns seem to be all around.

Global powers lobby to stop special Brexit deal for UK (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk)

I believe the appropriate term is a British invention: "fair play"....

But not to worry - my bets are on a transition deal that keeps the UK witin the customs union and the internal market, and will turn out to last indefinitely.... 8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 02:59:14 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 09, 2017, 03:48:19 PM
I am not brit, but sort of agree with you.
In fact many people, including myself saw the northern ireland settlement as a temporary one - kicking the can down the road (the proper translation of the greek Kalendae reference) but it may be the mother of all concessions: the only way to put it into effect is to keep the UK in the custom union with free movement of people.
EU officials describe the NI settlement as creative ambiguity as it is a mean to reach their long term goal which boils down to your matter of fact summary.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 09, 2017, 04:03:57 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion


8)

Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 04:30:39 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)

That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 05:21:20 PM
That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.

Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.

To be sure. Nor I, in your place.

8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 06:06:22 PM
Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

As horrific as Trump is though, at least you get a chance to vote him out in 2020, assuming he makes it that far. Unfortunately for us, Brexit is the result of a referendum, which means the vote has been sanctified as "the will of the people", even though it showed the country pretty much split down the middle. And those on the leave side who so loudly demanded for years that "the people must have their say" are remarkably unenthusiastic about having a referendum on the terms of the eventual deal, when we know what that is. "The people must have their say, once" would apparently be more accurate. Trying to reverse this shitshow really is going to be horribly difficult, and even if it happens, god alone knows what damage will have been done by then.

It would certainly be very interesting to know to what extent, if at all, it is possible to have a number of trade deals with different countries/trading blocs if those deals include regulations that clash with each other. I don't know the answer to that, but I'm hoping there are pretty substantial limits on how much of a clash there can be. If that's the case, agreeing to regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union would seem to make a hard Brexit almost impossible. Here's hoping....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 01:53:30 AM
Remainers have an important ally in the European Union: Ireland.

it is for economical as well as political reasons of paramount interest to Ireland that the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market, and it will do anything to prevent a hard Brexit. Sofar Ireland seems to wield a lot of influence during the negotiations.

May has stated she is seeking a short transitional stage of 2 years in which the UK retains access to the internal market, but is not in it. Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

First reality check will be that a trade deal with the EU cannot be negotiated witin 2 years (or a comprehensive deal  with any other country, for that matter).
To prevent another cliff edge, the transition has to be longer. Under those conditions only a continued participation of the customs union and the internal market with continued contributions - without a rebate - would be acceptable to the EU.

The alternative would be the short transition period desired by the UK, followed by a hard Brexit.
That would at least soften the economic shock and give more time to prepare....

But the so called "third fase" - the actual trade deal with the EU - is not going to materialise before the exit date....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 02:42:52 AM

Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

Q

 I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 03:02:33 AM
I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤

"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 03:08:57 AM
"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)

Just stop it now, I'm trying to have a nice day.

Anyway Mogg will be able to have cheaper servants running round his mansion. 😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 05:30:31 AM
Apparently the Telegraph is reporting that May's aides have told arch-Brexiteers like Gove and Johnson that her concession on commitment to regulatory alignment with the customs union and single market is effectively meaningless as it means nothing in EU law. I'd normally take anything the Telegraph says with a truckload of salt, but if this is true it would certainly explain the otherwise puzzling phenomenon of Gove, Johnson and even Fox lauding May for reaching an agreement that up to now they would have denounced as a surrender.

If it really is true, it seems that the plan is to give the EU a commitment that the UK government has no intention of honouring. Even for the Brexiteers, this would be a staggeringly stupid thing to do. Their vision of other countries queuing up to give us incredible new trade deals at mates rates is a fantasy with no factual basis in reality, but even if it were true, other countries would only sign deals with us if they thought the UK could be trusted. Who would touch us with a barge pole if we've just treated the EU in such a blatantly duplicitous fashion? It's not as if we can say that even this government wouldn't be so monumentally stupid as to try something like this, as all the evidence thus far suggests that they would. This is the government whose cabinet still hasn't got round to discussing what sort of final outcome they want from Brexit - 18 months after the referendum and eight months after triggering article 50.

Hopefully the very fact that it's appeared in the Telegraph will scupper this mad idea. It won't go unnoticed in Brussels, so the EU will now suspect that this is what the UK government may be up to - even if the government denies it - and will have it in mind when it comes to the trade talks. To say this does not bode well would be an understatement of immense proportions.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 10, 2017, 06:24:17 AM
The drama ! This is getting much more fun and exciting than Trump’s baby tantrums and the shenanigans of the US congress and senate !  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 10, 2017, 07:28:28 AM
... it seems that the plan is to give the EU a commitment that the UK government has no intention of honouring.

Perfide Albion ??  Funny I think I have heard that nickname before...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 07:45:12 AM
Rather like Trump, almost every hour you think What The Absolute Fuck?


May's EU deal not binding, says David Davis


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 07:57:23 AM
Rather like Trump, almost every hour you think What The Absolute Fuck?


May's EU deal not binding, says David Davis


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971)

Brexit is starting to resemble a piece of surrealist performance art.

Interesting sentence in that article:

Quote
But there is still controversy, and confusion, over what "full alignment" would mean in practice, with some Brexiteers fearing the UK would have to continue to abide by EU regulations on agriculture and other issues after Brexit and would not be able to strike its own trade deals.

That strongly suggests that the clash between different trade deals' regulations I mentioned earlier could indeed be a big problem.

According to this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/10/no-deal-brexit-odds-dropped-dramatically-david-davis (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/10/no-deal-brexit-odds-dropped-dramatically-david-davis)

Quote
Davis said, however, that full alignment would only affect a few sectors, such as agriculture, road and rail, and would mean the UK achieving certain outcomes but not necessarily in the same way as the EU did.

So if, as this implies, there are sectors in which full alignment won't apply, and that therefore in those sectors there will be a significant degree of regulatory divergence, that surely takes us back to a hard border, since the EU will want to be sure that UK goods in non-aligned sectors entering the EU are compatible with single market and customs union regulations. I suppose there could be mutual recognition of each others' standards, but the EU won't do that unless our regulations in non-aligned sectors are very similar - or, to put it another way, in regulatory alignment - to theirs. The kindest interpretation of the government's plans I can think of is that they appear to be written on the back of a fag packet. I can think of some distinctly less charitable descriptions as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 10:14:04 AM
I guess the UK govt doesn't want a deal after all...

Row erupts over claims that Brexit border concessions were 'meaningless' and 'not binding' (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/row-erupts-over-claims-that-brexit-border-concessions-were-meaningless-and-not-binding-36394010.html)

The other members of the European Council will not be amused... ::)

As mentioned here before: no credibility = no deal.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 02:04:21 PM
I guess the UK govt doesn't want a deal after all...

Row erupts over claims that Brexit border concessions were 'meaningless' and 'not binding' (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/row-erupts-over-claims-that-brexit-border-concessions-were-meaningless-and-not-binding-36394010.html)

The other members of the European Council will not be amused... ::)

As mentioned here before: no credibility = no deal.

Q

I like this bit:

Quote
Last night, a Downing Street spokesman said: "We do not recognise this account of conversations."

If the reports were false you can be sure the government would be pouring bucketloads of scorn all over them. Instead they issue a feeble denial whose wording could hardly be any weaker, which does rather suggest that the reports are true but they can't admit it. It's the Baldrick approach - government by cunning plan. Unfortunately, this particular plan is making Baldrick look like a strategic genius by comparison.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 11, 2017, 01:42:33 AM
And Ireland is not happy...

Ireland issues warning to David Davis over Brexit agreement

The Irish government has warned the Brexit Secretary that the border agreement is not a 'statement of intent' it is 'politically bullet-proof'
(http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-david-davis-brexit-warning-a8102766.html)

In my view, what Davis and other Brexiteers don't get, is that this independent from the outcome of the negotiations on a transitional phase and a subsequent trade deal. The adagium "nothing is agreed untill everything is agreed" doesn't quite apply - perhaps in working out details, but not in principle.
The divorce bill is connected to preexisting financial obligations from the UK's current EU membership. The Northern Ireland issue deals with the UK's existing legal obligations under the Good Friday Agreement. The agreement explicitly deals with the situation of a hard Brexit.... The "grandfathering" (preservation of preexisting legal rights) of EU citizens rights is and independent legal matter as well.

Brexiteers assume they can walk away from the divorce agreement if they don't get the trade deal they want.

Not....that would be a breach of an international legal agreement and would have serious consequences.
As the Chancellor already tried to explain to an incredulous audience - the divorce settlement has to be paid irrespective of the outcome subsequent negations.
The same goes for the UK commitments on the way it will abide by the Good Friday Agreement after a Brexit, whatever shape or form it may take.

Davis is now backtracking on Hammonds' statement: Brexit: David Davis says £39bn bill "conditional" on final deal countering Philip Hammond's claim (http://www.cityam.com/277220/david-davis-tries-explain-those-non-existent-brexit-impact)

Very stupid, and very dangerous...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 11, 2017, 01:51:59 AM
EU statement

The updated Negotiating Guidelines the EU adopt next Fri are clear enough: “negotiations in the second phase can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken during the first phase are respected in full and translated faithfully in legal terms as quickly as possible.”

The amazing thing is that Daniel Davis is the chief negotiator for the UK.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 11, 2017, 02:18:20 AM

The amazing thing is that Daniel Davis is the chief negotiator for the UK.

Good news!

He has been replaced by David Davis. 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 12, 2017, 09:52:09 AM
Michael Gove unveils Brexit for animals plan (no kidding !!)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html)

British will never cease to surprise me !!  No more bullfights in the UK !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on December 12, 2017, 09:56:41 AM
Michael Gove unveils Brexit for animals plan (no kidding !!)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html)

British will never cease to surprise me !!

Quote
As it rejects EU exemptions for activities such as bullfighting and foie gras production, the law would offer "even stronger protection" than the EU protocol "could ever do", said spokesman David Bowles.
Huzzah for Brexit - no more bullfighting or overfed foie gras geese in the UK!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 12, 2017, 12:29:06 PM
There's obviously nothing Brexitty about animal welfare, but I am all in favour of the highest possible standards, whoever makes the laws. I just find it bizarre this is coming from the party of fox hunting (May had thought another vote on it was a super idea before the GE scuppered that idea). The tory party happily drives human animals into poverty and deprivation, but wants better welfare the the rest. WTF?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 12, 2017, 03:38:33 PM
The worst thing about this sorry mess is that although a poll today shows that 51% of UK voters think that Brexit negotiations are going badly, the Tories still have 42% support and lead the Labour party (40%) in the polls by 2%.

What will it take?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 12, 2017, 04:24:07 PM
The worst thing about this sorry mess is that although a poll today shows that 51% of UK voters think that Brexit negotiations are going badly, the Tories still have 42% support and lead the Labour party (40%) in the polls by 2%.

What will it take?

Polls I've seen recently have either had Labour slightly ahead or the two parties on level pegging, though I believe there was one recently that had a Labour lead of 8 points. But the overall picture seems to be that little has changed since the election.

I think the reason for this is the referendum. It not only revealed a country split down the middle on the issue of the EU, it amplified that split to such an extent that the public has largely gravitated towards which of the two main parties it feels better represents them on that issue. The Tories' pitch to the public is that they're a party of enthusiastic hard Brexiteers, so most Leave voters are sticking with them. Labour's pitch has been that of a party of soft Brexit that wants to stay as close to the EU as possible. Remainers might not find that ideal, but it's far better than hard Brexit so they've mostly gone with Labour.

Obviously this is very broadly speaking. There are other issues which may well start to hurt the Tories - the state of the NHS, the fiasco of Universal Credit, the squeeze on living standards to name just a few. But Brexit currently dominates the agenda and will do until (if?) we leave. The effects of Brexit starting to kick in therefore remains the thing most likely to really cause the Tories trouble. They're hoping that positioning themselves as the most pro-Brexit party will win them votes, but if Brexit goes badly - and given what's happened so far that looks a very distinct possibility - then they'll be associated with it. They probably know that, and are hoping that the worst of the damage can be put off until just after the next election.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2017, 11:25:37 PM
Labour's pitch has been that of a party of soft Brexit that wants to stay as close to the EU as possible. Remainers might not find that ideal, but it's far better than hard Brexit so they've mostly gone with Labour.

In my impression Labour is as split on Brexit as the Tories are, though hard Brexiteers are lower in number.
Labour has declined to firmly commit to remain in the customs union and internal market.... "something very close", which is basically May's approach...

Both major parties keep fudging and swaggering because of the split in public opinion.

Q

PS  Labour will have to make a choice on Brexit, and soon (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/13/labour-brexit-position-tories)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2017, 05:40:27 AM
In my impression Labour is as split on Brexit as the Tories are, though hard Brexiteers are lower in number.
Labour has declined to firmly commit to remain in the customs union and internal market.... "something very close", which is basically May's approach...

Both major parties keep fudging and swaggering because of the split in public opinion.

Q

PS  Labour will have to make a choice on Brexit, and soon (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/13/labour-brexit-position-tories)

Labour has its splits on Brexit, but they are certainly not as drastic as those in the Tory party. The vast majority of Labour MPs and members are solidly pro-Remain. The split is among Labour voters, which I mentioned recently. Even so, I believe around two thirds of Labour voters voted Remain, though it's certainly true that there are a number of Labour seats in the north of England and the Midlands that voted for Brexit.

As I said before, I think Corbyn would probably like to make an explicit offer to the public of staying in the customs union and single market, but he can't do it until some of those Leave voters start to switch in sufficient numbers to make such an offer politically viable. That's not likely to happen until those voters start to realise they've been had. It may start to happen during the trade negotiations. They will be far harder than phase 1 - which proved hard enough - and they won't be able to fudge it, as decisions will have to be made on which way to jump on those issues which have been fudged for now. That's when Leave voters may start to see that Brexit is not going to deliver what they were told it would. Labour will obviously need a concrete policy of its own ready and waiting to go by that point. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 13, 2017, 11:30:38 AM
MPs defeat May's government on Brexit law (309 to 305)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T
 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 13, 2017, 11:33:21 AM
MPs defeat May's government on Brexit law (309 to 305)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T
 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T)

Just heard it.

Interesting... :P
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 13, 2017, 11:36:33 AM
Hurrah!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/tory-brexit-rebels-inflict-major-defeat-on-theresa-may (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/tory-brexit-rebels-inflict-major-defeat-on-theresa-may)

And tomorrow, she's off to Brussels. Suck it up, May.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2017, 04:24:23 PM
Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 13, 2017, 05:07:28 PM
Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.

Shhhh. The Will of The People is more important than hypocrisy.

Wasn't it lovely watching them slagging each other off on the news tonight. 😁
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 14, 2017, 04:29:26 AM
The more the members of this odious government fight and fall out with each other, the happier I'll be, and the sooner we'll be rid of them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 06:47:35 AM
Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers)

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 14, 2017, 07:04:36 AM
Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers)

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.

Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 08:07:06 AM
Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

Perhaps it should be prosecuted under terrorism laws for radicalising its readers:

https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/939428837598916608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fsoft-brexit-fallout-thread.418898%2Fpage-530 (https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/939428837598916608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fsoft-brexit-fallout-thread.418898%2Fpage-530)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 09:34:41 AM
Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

And predictably enough....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/14/dominic-grieve-says-he-has-had-death-threats-after-brexit-rebellion (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/14/dominic-grieve-says-he-has-had-death-threats-after-brexit-rebellion)

Soubry also had death threats after the Telegraph's recent "mutineers" headline.

Of course, if there is another Jo Cox tragedy their defence will be similar to what Trump says when a mass killing happens and it turns out the shooter is white rather than brown: mental illness issue, no wider significance, mustn't politicise this tragedy, etc..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2017, 01:44:03 AM
Phase 2.. or should I say Act 2 of this tragicomedy...?  ;)

The transition phase is for the EU about retaining the status quo on the customs union and the internal market - which means full regulatory conformity, full competence of the Court of Justice. Basically the Norway scenario for a limited period of time.....

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42367532

My prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process....  ::)

On the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

Q

PS The doors open to Phase 2:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/288e1efb1da26594c4dbad8542cca44bd7186b05/0_0_4845_3334/master/4845.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=b6393cd6db8f991069d88b7bbea3ca40)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2017, 02:18:44 AM
Funny: an imperialist abhorring the prospect of becoming a colony......

Brexit: UK must not be EU 'colony' after Brexit (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42375059)

I guess empires are only a good idea if you have the upper hand...... ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 16, 2017, 03:48:39 PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour)

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2017, 04:46:40 PM
My prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process....  ::)

They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed. At that point I'd expect the opposition parties and the Tory remainers to really kick up a stink, if they haven't started doing so already. The Brexiteers' narrative has already shifted from "Brexit will take us to the sunlit uplands" to "it's worth it no matter the cost". They can't be allowed to get away with that. 

Quote
On the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

But when we know the outcome it may well give the SNP momentum for a referendum. If we get a deal it will be a lot worse than what we currently have, and no deal would be a disaster. Either outcome might well make a lot of Scots wonder if it's worth being chained to a UK committing an absurd act of national self-harm, especially if the outcome is no deal. Faced with a post-Brexit UK shaped by the hard right of the Tory party, I couldn't blame them if they decided they wanted out of the UK.   

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2017, 04:58:10 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour)

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...

Probably due to the fact that we're moving on to phase 2. A lot of leave voters seem to just want Brexit no matter what, so they're willing to overlook the fact that the government had to capitulate on all three phase 1 issues. If they've even noticed that that's what happened.

Did you see Thursday's Question Time? It was from Barnsley, a hugely pro-Brexit area. The first question was about rebel MPs trying to stop Brexit, the jeering from the audience at one of those rebels (Nicky Morgan) started almost immediately, and it was clear that the rhetoric in the right wing press - saboteurs, mutineers, etc. - had been taken on board. They weren't interested in actual arguments, they just wanted Brexit, come what may. It didn't help that one of the panellists was that fatuous waste of oxygen Isabel Oakeshott, a Daily Mail "journalist" who kept repeating the phrase "will of the people" at every available opportunity. It was noticeable that when Robert Winston, a well respected expert in his field, pointed out the consequences of leaving EURATOM, it all went rather quiet. No-one in the leave campaign told them about that, and Winston can hardly be dismissed as an agent of Project Fear.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 16, 2017, 10:03:39 PM
From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 17, 2017, 04:32:11 AM
They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed.

Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/tony-blair-the-whole-country-has-been-pulled-into-this-tory-psychodrama-over-europe) on Labour's Brexit position:

Quote
[....] our language may be different, but we’re actually in the same position as the Tories, which is to say we’ll get out of the single market but we want a close trading relationship with Europe. Your risk is that, at a certain point, you get exposed as having the same technical problem that the Tories have, which is: here’s the Canada option, here’s the Norway option, and every time you move towards Norwayyou’ll be accepting the rules of the EU, but you’ve lost your say in it, and every time you move towards the Canada option you’re going to be doing economic damage. That’s the essential dilemma of the Tories, which I think will be exposed over time, and Labour’s got that problem, too.”
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 17, 2017, 05:56:57 AM
Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/tony-blair-the-whole-country-has-been-pulled-into-this-tory-psychodrama-over-europe) on Labour's Brexit position:

I think Labour will shift its position once it becomes clear to leave voters that they aren't going to get the "have our cake and eat it" Brexit they were promised. Labour is much less divided than the Tories and would be able to live with staying in the customs union and single market quite easily; the Tories couldn't (the Tory remainers probably could, but not the hard Brexit headbangers).

The problem is that so far it hasn't dawned on many leave voters that they're not going to get what they expected, and as episodes of Question Time from Brexit-voting areas make all too clear, they're so hell bent on Brexit that they're not willing - yet - to listen to anyone on the other side of the argument. I know Blair is arguing that Corbyn should try to change their views rather than waiting for them to change, but the problem with that is that if he tries to do so when they're not willing to listen, they'll dismiss what he has to say and probably abandon Labour. If he shifts position at the point when they're beginning to have a change of heart anyway he's much more likely to get a fair hearing. I know this is far from ideal, but the trouble is Brexit has become a viscerally emotional issue, so rational arguments about economic damage and the consequent damage to public services are dismissed as scaremongering/sour grapes from "Remoaners" who should just suck it up because they lost/attempts to thwart "the will of the people", etc.. It's infuriating, because they're going to drag the rest of us off the cliff with them, but until they realise they've been had, it's hard to see what Corbyn or anyone else can do.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 17, 2017, 06:01:35 AM
From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html)

Interesting, but it's only one poll. We'll have to wait for further polls over the next few months to see if this one is just an outlier, or if it's indicative of a more substantial trend against leaving than we've seen so far. I hope it's the latter, but the figures would probably have to be about 60-40 on a consistent basis for a period of some months in order for a second referendum to become a serious possibility.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 19, 2017, 10:41:23 AM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 19, 2017, 04:46:49 PM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

What's so damning about that slide is the clarity compared to the fog of contradictory nonsense we're hearing from the UK government - oh yes, and the fact that the slide demonstrates that a deal which isn't much better than CETA is the logical result of other options being closed off by our own government's red lines.

Meanwhile....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/david-davis-to-warn-european-commission-it-cannot-cherrypick-brexit-trade-deal-sectors (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/david-davis-to-warn-european-commission-it-cannot-cherrypick-brexit-trade-deal-sectors)

Yes, that's Davis warning the EU it can't cherry pick. Well, he did say that he doesn't need to be clever to do his job, and this appears to be an attempt to demonstrate that. Even the photo above the article makes it look as though he's thinking "oh shit, did I really just say that?"
 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 20, 2017, 04:34:45 AM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

I doubt if the UK is going to get the Swiss deal, which is actually over a 100 bilateral agreements accumulated over many years.

A Swiss type of arrangement will still cross some of the UK government's "red lines". The Swiss, for instance, pay a yearly contribution into EU funds.

Also, following a rejection by referendum by the Swiss people  (those holy pebliscites..... ) of becoming part of the internal market, the EU has been very generous to the Swiss - a bit too generous is the current general feeling.... But that doesn't hurt so much, since the Swiss have a relatively small economy.

Any such generosity towards the Brits would create unfair competition and cause serious distortions of the internal market. It's not going to happen...

The deal with Japan, is according to the EU (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-uk-eu-michel-barnier-canada-japan-south-korea-a8119956.html)the new model it will aim for....
Meanwhile the UK govt has decided, after long and hard deliberations, that it wants a "bespoke deal".... in other words: a deal where you have your cake and eat it. ...  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 21, 2017, 04:55:40 AM
I'm afraid that this Brexit thread is going to be pretty boring for some time to come.....

For the so called "transition phase" (phase 2) it is clear that from the side of the EU there is only one offer on the table: a continued membership of the customs union and participation in the internal market untill end of 2020, which is also the end of the current EU budget.

Such an arrangement will effectively delay all economic consequences (well, most...) of Brexit till 2021....
Meanwhile negotiations will be started on a final trade deal.

At present there will be just one bone of contention: Gibraltar
It will, as far as the EU is concerned, not be automatically covered by the transitional agreement.
My guess is that Spain will not be prepared to allow a continuation of Gibraltar's status a tax haven much longer.... Of course it could be decided to go all the way with Gibraltar and turn it into a modern pirate's nest. But in that case Gibraltar would be completely cut off from the EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 22, 2017, 06:00:34 AM
The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 22, 2017, 08:54:09 AM
The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.

And to think, I accused them of not having a plan. I feel such a fool. :(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 22, 2017, 11:18:19 AM
https://youtu.be/TLpWX3ukQKQ
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 24, 2017, 07:15:48 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/YF7E32N.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 25, 2017, 11:16:20 AM
Ho ho ho


Sad thing is, of course, it's funny because it's the truth.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 02, 2018, 03:57:49 AM
Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/02/david-davis-says-eu-cannot-cherry-pick-terms-of-free-trade-deal)

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 02, 2018, 07:50:08 AM
Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/02/david-davis-says-eu-cannot-cherry-pick-terms-of-free-trade-deal)

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q

The issue of the Irish border was fudged in the phase 1 talks by means of an agreement to stay in regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union - but the UK government said that this alignment will apply to certain specific areas directly relevant to cross-border trade in Ireland. That implies that there will be a significant number of other areas in which we don't commit to stay in alignment. Sounds rather like cherrypicking to me. So if Davis continues to insist on economic cooperation across the board, the EU will simply say: fine, you want cooperation across the board, stay in regulatory alignment across the board. At which point either the UK refuses, or agrees. If the former, it's a pretty hard Brexit with all the damage that entails. If the latter, the Brexit ultras will explode with rage. These decisions will have to be made in 2018: they can't carry on fudging them, and whichever way May jumps, one wing of her party will be furious.

By the way, you know how the Brexiteers are insisting that Brexit means we have to leave the single market, and that a Norway-type deal would be unacceptable because we'd still effectively be in the EU? Well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=0xGt3QmRSZY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=0xGt3QmRSZY)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 10, 2018, 12:05:39 AM
Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers ‘make no sense’ (https://www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-david-davis-post-brexit-trade-barriers-make-no-sense/)

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay within the internal market...  ::)

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 10, 2018, 12:59:00 AM
I enjoyed the 'News Item' at the end of Paddington 2 which stated that Mrs Brown had indeed managed to swim the Channel between Enland and France but had to swim back again as she had forgotten her passport.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on January 10, 2018, 05:48:29 AM
Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers ‘make no sense’ (https://www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-david-davis-post-brexit-trade-barriers-make-no-sense/)

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay witin the internal market...  ::)

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q

Let me put it simply:

I want a divorce, but afterwards I still want to be able to shag you.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 11, 2018, 05:55:59 AM
So amusing !

Quote
Nigel Farage says "just maybe I’m reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum on EU membership"

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 15, 2018, 04:00:33 PM
Boris Johnson has finally admitted that the £350million figure on the bus was bollocks. Well, sort of:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/leave-campaigns-350m-claim-was-too-low-says-boris-johnson (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/leave-campaigns-350m-claim-was-too-low-says-boris-johnson)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 01:07:03 AM
The UK rejection of the "Norway model" while attempting to cherrypick a deal with the EU that is as adventageous, doesn't go down well with Norway....

May faces tougher transition stance from EU amid Norway pressure (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands)

And I expect Norway to pressure the EU to drive a hard deal with the UK in fisheries as well...

So what do we deduce from this?

1. The UK has few friends in negotiating the trade deal with the EU.

2. It is impossible for the EU to give the UK a better deal than other trading partners without blowing up existing trade deals....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on January 16, 2018, 10:35:00 PM
So amusing !

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/)

"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 10:52:04 PM
"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.

The irony of it all is that Britain already has a superb "bespoke deal": outside the euro, outside the Schengen free movement zone, treaty opt-outs on social protection and criminal justice, and last but not least.... a huge budget rebate.

What Brexit does, is to throw that all away and scream murder over not getting anything better...

And now blaming the "tyrannical EU" for a "bad deal" is indeed becoming a self fulfilling prophesy, building up more resentment.
So, I think Marc might be right...if so, it's going to be ugly....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 11:08:48 PM
Britons in Netherlands take fight for their EU rights to Dutch court (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/16/britons-in-netherlands-take-fight-for-their-eu-rights-to-dutch-court)

I haven't had a close look at the legal arguments yet...

But my legal instincts tell me there might be a good possibility that the EU Court of Justice finds that UK nationals that are permanent residents in the (remainder of the) EU at the moment of Brexit, cannot be stripped of their EU citizenship.

Which makes sense, if one makes comparisons with the way citizenship/nationality issues are dealt with in other (regular) instances of secession.

This will of course will not help EU citizens in the UK or prevent the loss of EU citizenship for all other UK nationals.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 17, 2018, 07:32:23 AM
For what it's worth, polls since the referendum have shown a small degree of movement towards Remain. Nothing major, but they suggest that Remain would win by a narrow margin if there were to be another referendum now.

The problem is that such a result is far from guaranteed, and a narrow Remain win wouldn't put the issue to bed, no more than a narrow Leave win has. And obviously if Leave won again, even if only narrowly, that would be it and we'd be really screwed. That said, if a second referendum does happen, it's highly unlikely to be a re-run of June 2016, i.e. choosing between leave or remain. It would probably be a choice between accepting whatever deal May gets - including no deal if that should happen - or rejecting that deal and staying in. At that point we would know the terms of exit, and there should then be a clear and obvious gulf between the deal we actually get, and the have our cake and eat it deal the Brexiteers assured us we'd get. That disconnect between the Brexiteers' rhetoric and what we get in reality is what will produce a Remain win, assuming anything can. There's no point in trying to change the minds of die-hard Brexiteer believers, but the less fanatical Leave voters who genuinely thought we'd get the sort of deal they were promised might be willing to reconsider.

Of course it's also possible that there are enough people of the "Brexit at any cost" persuasion to win another vote, in which case it's full steam ahead for Shit Creek. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 20, 2018, 02:44:55 AM
So, Boris Johnson wants a bridge over the channel....
Do you think cars will be driving on the the left or right hand side of the road ?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 29, 2018, 03:31:22 PM
The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 30, 2018, 11:54:02 AM
The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)

According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious.... 8)

Quote
The leaked figures showing Britain would be worse off under all Brexit scenarios than it would have been had it stayed in the EU were just a work in progress. The numbers had been cobbled together by a bunch of untrustworthy idiots in his own department and he had personally sent them all back to their spreadsheets with strict instructions not to emerge until they came up with a scenario in which Brexit was going to be a huge success.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 30, 2018, 02:41:33 PM
Quote
Mr Barnier noted that the EU has signed some  70 international trade access agreements with third countries, all of which will have to be asked to accept UK access to their markets on EU terms during the transition.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/uk-to-be-denied-eu-decision-making-role-during-brexit-transition-1.3372792

Oops.....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 31, 2018, 05:40:04 PM
According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious.... 8)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q

They're going to release the analysis after all:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers)

So to recap, the government's position on its impact assessments has gone as follows:

1. The assessments have been done and go into "excruciating detail".
2. Er.....no they don't. In fact they don't even exist.
3. No, as you were - it turns out we have done some sort of assessment after all! But we can't release it.
4. OK, we'll release it. But don't take any notice of the bit that says Brexit will be economically damaging, because economic forecasts are always wrong.
5. Unless they say Brexit will be great. You can trust those. Obviously. And if you don't, you're a saboteur remoaner talking the country down.

The EU must be pissing itself laughing.

This bit says it all:

Quote
The climbdown came as Downing Street said Phillip Lee, a junior justice minister, had been reprimanded for tweeting that if such studies showed the economy would be harmed then a change in policy should follow.

No such action has been taken against the Brexit minister Steve Baker, who said economic forecasts by government officials were “always wrong”.


In tweets sent on Tuesday, a Downing Street source said: “Phillip Lee will recognise that the analysis was initial and probably not worth commenting on. He has been spoken to by the chief whip and reminded that it is best to air his view in private.”

Asked whether the lack of action against Baker meant the minister’s view was official government policy, the source said: “I will stick with what Steve Baker said.”

It's beyond parody now.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 06, 2018, 11:15:45 PM
There seems to be a clear breach of trust between the EU and the UK govt.....

Brexit: EU to have power to punish UK at will during transition

Brussels could impose sanctions if it believes law infringed
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/brexit-eu-power-punish-uk-transition-period-sanctions)

Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making, I cannot blame the EU for making contingency plans.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 07, 2018, 10:56:37 AM
British group wins right to take Brexit case to European court (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/07/british-group-wins-right-to-take-brexit-case-to-european-court)

I'm proud to see that the Dutch judiciary is still a beacon of light in a world that grows darker and darker by the day.....


“The essence of a democratic constitutional state is that the rights and interests of minorities are protected as much as possible”

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on February 07, 2018, 03:00:19 PM
Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making

No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules!  :laugh: >:D :P

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 07, 2018, 11:12:22 PM
No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules!  :laugh: >:D :P

Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on February 09, 2018, 02:29:06 AM
Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q
Agreed, and Que is absolutely right in monitoring this disaster closely.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on February 09, 2018, 04:27:09 AM
Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...


I don't deny the possibility.

Sooner or later it probably happens to every country. Empires much more powerful and self-confident than the current UK have disappeared without trace.

Sic transit gloria mundi!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on February 09, 2018, 11:08:56 AM
"Bringing you live scenes from the UK’s Brexit strategy"

https://twitter.com/Queen_Europe/status/961883716321619968



( ... well, at one level at least, this one is quite funny  :) )
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 10, 2018, 01:24:45 PM
Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86767)

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 10, 2018, 05:23:20 PM
Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86767)

Q

Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

Meanwhile we have a government paralysed by the ideological faultline in the Tory party, with the Brexit ultras and the hard right Tory press filling the resulting vacuum with bellicose rhetoric about "standing up to EU bullies" - that's the same "bullies" who we were assured would be falling over themselves to give us a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal because "they need us more than we need them". As that's not happening it's obviously because they're intransigent bullies who want to punish us. Tomorrow's Telegraph has a story trying to sow division in the EU by claiming some states think Barnier is being too aggressive with Britain, which would seem to be a transparent attempt to set Barnier up as the bogeyman who will be blamed by the Brexiteers when we don't get the sort of deal they told us we'd get.

And that seems to be all the Brexiteers have left now. The day after the referendum it turned out that they had no Brexit plan whatsoever even though many of them had been arguing for the UK to leave the EU for years, which suggests many of them never thought they'd win and actually have to go through with it. The priority now seems to be to get the excuses in first so that whatever else happens, when the shit hits the fan, someone else gets the blame. The list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Unfortunately, if the likes of Question Time are any guide, there are still a lot of Leave voters who - so far at least - are willing to swallow the rhetoric blaming everyone else, especially "Brussels bullies", for Brexit turning into a farce. Presumably because it's much more comforting to blame someone else rather than admit that supporting something which looks as though it's going to be a train wreck might not have been such a good idea after all.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 11, 2018, 01:10:46 AM
Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

However, the UK will not be given a say in EU decision making after it leaves. The concession will likely to be on free movement/immigration .

An immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

Quote
The list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Soon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 11, 2018, 05:28:25 PM
I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

I'm sure May will use up every last millimetre of that road but it's still going to run out, and soon. Then she'll have to decide which way to jump. She'll probably choose the "off the cliff" option.

Quote
An immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

When you look at the influence the likes of Rees Mogg and the European Research Group now wield, a hard Brexit does indeed look a very distinct possibility. I saw a recent comment online which said that Brexit may be disaster capitalism on a grand scale, as the chaos of falling off a cliff edge would create some lucrative opportunities for those bankrolling it. It's certainly plausible.

Quote
Soon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q

Indeed, I'm sure the list will get longer before too long. Not to worry though, apparently Boris Johnson will be giving a speech designed to appeal to remainers and unite the country, so there's that to look forward to. Stop laughing.

What is truly extraordinary is that crunch time is fast approaching and yet nothing has changed: Peter Bone, one of the most fanatical supporters of a hard Brexit, was interviewed just a few days ago and stated that of course the Irish government won't put up a hard border. And if they do, that's down to them. As if a hard border wasn't a direct consequence of a hard Brexit. I don't know if he's aware of that but is saying otherwise so he can carry on blaming Ireland and the EU should a hard border return, or if he genuinely believes what he's saying, in which case he has no idea what he's talking about. Either way, they're still spouting this crap now, just as they have been since the referendum. Similarly, leave voters on Question Time are still offering the same old pearls of wisdom: "we're a big economy so of course the EU will want to trade with us, we'll be fine", "just have some faith", etc.. This sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/951589776448262144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fquestion-time-this-week.362105%2Fpage-62 (https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/951589776448262144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fquestion-time-this-week.362105%2Fpage-62) 
 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 17, 2018, 02:17:07 AM
Layoffs Arrive in Brexit Britain, and Auto Workers Are Up First (Bloomberg) (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/layoffs-arrive-in-brexit-britain-and-auto-workers-are-up-first)

Not to worry, it's all just scaremongering..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 17, 2018, 02:23:14 AM
The security issue will be interesting.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 17, 2018, 02:41:25 AM
The security issue will be interesting.

Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 17, 2018, 03:17:41 AM
Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q

Let's hope so!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on February 17, 2018, 06:00:55 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

‘Ideal’ UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 17, 2018, 06:14:30 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

‘Ideal’ UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)

Er....remoaning saboteurs......talking down the country......believe in Britain, etc.. This is clearly just more Project Fear.....

Quote
It also advocates tearing up the EU’s “precautionary principle”, under which traders have to prove something is safe before it is sold, rather than waiting for it to be proved unsafe.

....or maybe not. Jesus. Presumably the precautionary principle is an example of that "burdensome EU red tape which is holding us back".

This has only come out because it was accidentally published online. So letting leave voters know what Brexit really means clearly isn't on the agenda. Not until it's too late anyway. Still, er........taking back control!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on February 17, 2018, 06:22:09 AM
The document was « not meant for public consumption ». Unpalatable indeed...