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The Back Room => The Diner => Topic started by: vandermolen on May 01, 2017, 09:14:35 PM

Title: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 01, 2017, 09:14:35 PM
So, what's your view on how these are going?
Looks like the whole thing is breaking down to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 01, 2017, 10:01:41 PM
What's wrong with the brits? What do they want with all these isolation plans? Do they really believe they do better leaving the EU? Really?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 01, 2017, 10:21:00 PM
It's a tragicomedy with one obvious loser - and the final stage in the dissolution of an ernstwhile empire, now that Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia at Cyprus, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be forced to choose their own destinies. 

With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: pjme on May 01, 2017, 10:57:15 PM
AMEN!

P.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 01, 2017, 11:44:08 PM
So one has the choice between demagogues (who play the masses, so referenda are bad) and techno-bureaucrats who are entrenched so deeply that it is extremely hard to remove them either. Or if a government is changed, the EU and international banks force their policy on them anyway, because as Schäuble said, pacta sunt servanda and democracy be damned, if "your" government has agreed to some shady deals years ago, there is no point in removing it because you are stuck with the shady deals anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 12:06:19 AM
I thouroughly agree that referendums are an inadequate way of making complex decisions, which are in this day and age basically all decisions of any importance  (health care,  security,  international relations).

But that shouldn't blind us for the fact that the archaic bipolar British parliamentary system failed in an epic way to present people with well informed and considered guidance at forehand, and with adequate opposition or scrutiny of the political course in the aftermath of the referendum.

Logically the best option for Britain would have been to remain part of the internal market and join the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
But no.... Since the decision to leave the EU wasn't based on any logical grounds anyway, that option was ruled out...

Where will it go from here? Since the expectations on the side of the hard line Tories who are in charge on the British side are unrealistic and their political manouvering space nil, we're heading for a rift between the UK and the EU resulting in a "hard" Brexit. Perhaps with the single exception of a deal on EU citizens in the UK and vice versa.
Unless the UK government for some reason backs down at the last moment or in the event of a political crisis in the UK that halts a Brexit. Either possibility seems less likely.

I guess Brits are going to regain full controle of their "Empire 2.0" and are going to have to live with it...

And all possible blame for the disastrous result will of course be squarely put on the EU....
Who wants to be responsible for the consequences of their own decisions anyway? 8) The political events in the US are an example in case.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: zamyrabyrd on May 02, 2017, 12:07:36 AM
With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).

So people are only useful idiots whose votes are subject to manipulation by the most unscrupulous.
Why not just declare a One World Autocracy now and be done once and for all with the illusion of democracy?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 12:09:22 AM
So people are only useful idiots whose votes are subject to manipulation by the most unscrupulous.
Why not just declare a One World Autocracy now and be done once and for all with the illusion of democracy?
I just plead FOR democracy - and AGAINST the abuse of voters. So-called 'direct democracy' is actually the opposte of democracy and is most effectively used by autocratic leadership (think of the last century's examples, varying from the extreme right to the extreme left, but all of them anti-democrats).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 12:18:45 AM
Former British Prime Ministers with as widely divergent views as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher both believed that the use of a referendum was completely against British constitutional practice. David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view. We elect governments to govern. Also, Cameron was foolish not to enfranchise 16 and 17 year olds who will be most affected by the disastrous (IMHO) Brexit decision. Had he done so we would not be leaving the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 12:20:19 AM
Former British Prime Ministers with as widely divergent views as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher both believed that the use of a referendum was completely against British constitutional practice. David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view. We elect governments to govern. Also, Cameron was foolish not to enfranchise 16 and 17 year olds who will be most affected by the disastrous (IMHO) Brexit decision. Had he done so we would not be leaving the EU.
Fully agree.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 12:20:57 AM
What's wrong with the brits? What do they want with all these isolation plans? Do they really believe they do better leaving the EU? Really?
48% of us didn't want to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 12:22:50 AM
It's a tragicomedy with one obvious loser - and the final stage in the dissolution of an ernstwhile empire, now that Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia at Cyprus, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be forced to choose their own destinies. 

With one big lesson to all Europeans (and Americans, but there's an even better warning at hand): democracy cannot be co-exist with referenda and other forms of so-called 'direct democracy' (serving the agenda of autocrats and other political adventurists only).
And I totally agree with this.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 12:23:21 AM
48% of us didn't want to leave the EU.
And the other half couldn't know what they were 'voting' about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 01:05:14 AM
And the other half couldn't know what they were 'voting' about.

The "good" news is that they will find out soon enough...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 02, 2017, 01:13:44 AM
The "good" news is that they will find out soon enough...

Q
You're right: the warning effects of both the Brexit and the Trumpolini experiments on European voters are already visible.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 01:32:13 AM
Britain’s complacency over Brexit will end in humiliation (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/britain-complacency-brexit-humiliation--france-germany-eu-uk)

Why do many of the British elite believe they do not need the EU, unlike their French and German counterparts? One reason is their rose-tinted view of Britain’s history. Britain did not need to rebuild its international reputation in the same way as Germany did after the war. But too many see Britain as a beacon of democracy and liberty. Too few are aware that the country’s colonial historymeans that much of the rest of the world is more ambivalent – and that Britain is less trusted and admired – than they imagine. EU membership often helped to mitigate these historical tensions, while allowing Britain to punch above its weight by enabling it to act as a bridge between the EU and the US.

Much of the British elite know little about how Britain’s economy compares. Few realise that three-quarters of the country is poorer than the EU-15 average; that Britain’s growth performance has been mediocre at best; or that there are relatively few British-owned and managed businesses with a strong record of growth. There are bright spots in the British economy, but its commanding heights owe much to foreign capital and expertise. Foreign-owned businesses generate more than half the country’s exports, and many of these exports are intermediate goods – links in international, predominantly European, supply chains. These companies are especially vulnerable to Britain leaving the single market. If the British economy were more locally owned and managed, it would be easier to understand the British complacency over the economic impact of Brexit. But for a developed country so dependent on foreign capital to do something so damaging to its ability to attract that capital has few precedents.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 01:40:57 AM
Just to make myself clear: there isn't any "Schadenfreude" on my part - each and every European will pay the price for this utter folly....
Even though the British will have to bear the brunt of the damage themselves...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 02, 2017, 03:31:25 AM
The question is how many years before the Brenter Negotiations start?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on May 02, 2017, 04:05:26 AM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 02, 2017, 06:45:24 AM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.

Have your cake and eat it.... We've heard that one before.... :D

Less cooperation = less compromise/ loss of sovereignty ("disadvantages") = less economic & political benefits.

And Brexit is not going to alter the economic consequences of globalisation, nor is it going to affect immigration from outside of the EU, nor will it dimish social and economic  inequality within the UK, nor is it going to restore the British Empire to its former "glory"... All of which in my observation have been the main reasons for people to favour Brexit.
Are they in for a surprise....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 02, 2017, 10:29:30 PM
Too much doom and gloom. An FTA with the EU would bring a lot of the advantages without the disadvantages. What's more, many of the other European countries are dealing with similar sentiments, as the election in France currently shows.
I hope that you're right but I'm not encouraged at the moment.

Thanks to everyone for the interesting responses.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: DaveF on May 02, 2017, 10:56:27 PM
David Cameron made a terrible misjudgement in my view.

That's assuming he is a man of principle who genuinely wanted to give the UK electorate the chance to strengthen the UK's links with the EU.  Assuming, on the other hand, that the referendum promise was merely a manoeuvre to get him re-elected, it was a perfect bit of judgement.  I don't know whether, like Johnson, he had a pro- and anti-EU speech written to be used as required - but it wouldn't surprise me to learn that he had.

So, what's up next?  Capital punishment?  Outlawing Christianity?  Demolishing all those elitist theatres and concert halls?  I'm sure the great British electorate would vote them all through with large majorities.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on May 03, 2017, 12:01:44 AM
So, what's up next?  Capital punishment?  Outlawing Christianity?  Demolishing all those elitist theatres and concert halls?  I'm sure the great British electorate would vote them all through with large majorities.

Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on May 03, 2017, 12:07:23 AM
I thought that Cameron's gambit had had two purposes: Get him reelected and strengthen the bargaining position with the EU because of the looming Brexit-threat. (Both after a narrow vote against Brexit.) Needless to say that the perennial special role of the UK did not make them all that popular even before the Brexit began to loom. So while I feel with the 48% who voted differently, overall my pity with the UK is severely limited, I am afraid.
@Dave: Have you read any of Fforde's "Thursday Next" books? There is a People's Republic of Wales in their alternative timeline...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on May 03, 2017, 12:09:31 AM
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".

If Plato came back to life, he'd not be surprised in the least. "I told you so long time ago, gentlemen! And mark my words well this time: the worst is yet to come!"  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: 71 dB on May 03, 2017, 01:33:02 AM
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".

The reason why we witness this is because people have become too ignorant of politics. They are easily manipulated by opportunists and populists who use fear and false promises as their weapon for power. Democracy works well as long as ignorant people are a small minority, but now they are becoming a large minority or even majority.  ???

At the moment we need moderated democracy (modecracy). We need wise men and women in power to overrule "stupid" political ideology. We need perhaps the possibility to give negative votes in elections to block extremists. We need to make people interested of real unpopulistic politics until we can return to "normal" democracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ahinton on May 03, 2017, 03:18:17 AM
There's been a great deal of welcome good sense in this thread so far.

Mr Cameron had no need even to include the promise of Parliamentary debate and voting on UK's continued EU membership in the manifesto for the 2015 UK General Election, still less a referendum on the issue which, as has already been noted, was the most crass way in which to introduce the subject into the Tory party agenda. No other UK political party included any reference to this in its manifesto pledges, which surely teaches us something about the matter, namely that the undertaking to call a referendum on it was a matter of perceived political expediency on the part of the Tory party - an expediency turned out to be mythical in any case.

The conduct and aftermath of the referendum were shameful beyond words, but the worst aspect of it - even worsre in some ways than the lies, half-truths and acrimony that characterised the campaign - is that neither those who voted Remain nor those who voted Leave nor even the majority of those who abstained were given anything like sufficient reliable information upon which to base their voting decisions.

Moreover, the UK electorate votes and pays squillions for Parliamentarians in the lower House in order that they may avail themselves of the opportunity to place trust in them to represent them and then to vote them out if they fail, so why suddenly delegate responsibility for a matter of the utmost importance for UK's future to the amateurs to decide?

Mr Cameron's allocation of almost £10m to the Remain campaign was also entirely out of order; if the government of the day wanted to persuade the electorate that to remain in EU was in UK's best interests, it should have done that in Parliamentary debate (I write as a Remain supporter in so saying).

The calling of the forthcoming UK General Election seems to have about as much reasoning as that of the referendum two years ago; its principal justification appears to be the perceived need to secure a much larger majority for the Tory party yet, even if that goal is achieved (which must surely be in some doubt), what difference will that make to the strength of UK's negotiation position when none of the other 27 EU nations have any reason to be interested in it? The 1 against 27 factor will remain, unaffected by the strength or weakness of the majority achieved by whichever party wins the UK General Election (even assuming that any one of them actually does so).

"The longest suicide note in history" -  that epithet infamously coined by one of the longest serving UK Labour Party MPs, Sir Gerald Kaufman (who died earlier this year), to describe his own party's 1983 General Election manifesto - looks soon to be overtaken as a descriptor of the manifestos (manifesti?) of both the Tory and the Labour parties (indeed, they might even come to be regarded as being in competition with one another as such), given that those two parties appear to endorse the UK leaving EU on the specious and spurious grounds of "the people have spoken" (yes, around 37% of UK's electorate voted for UK to leave EU and many of them and those who voted Remain didn't know enough of what they spoke).

I cannot imagine either EU or UK coming out of this mess unscathed; rather the reverse, indeed...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 05, 2017, 12:26:55 AM
Here Are 34 Ridiculously Challenging Problems Theresa May Will Have To Figure Out To Avoid A Brexit Disaster (https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/now-comes-the-hard-part?utm_term=.qcbkKKxaM1#.brqwMMm12r)

Just browse through all if these wonderful "opportunities".... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on May 05, 2017, 08:26:55 AM
(http://)
Exactly my point: we're witnessing times of anti-democratic flirtations sold as "democracy".
Totally agree - sadly.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on May 16, 2017, 03:13:52 AM
"When I watch this video, it makes me think of Brexit."

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/863754505552375810
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on May 26, 2017, 06:12:30 AM
The General Election and Brexit...

Clearly the upcoming General Election is beyond normal as it will be followed by Brexit negotiations and all that that entails. Voters who are concerned to try to minimise the chance of an unchecked "hard Brexit" can make use of this Dashboard to see who may be best placed in your own constituency to try and achieve this. It is not about party politics, it is about democracy. (The people behind this include Gina Miller who prevented Theresa May from bypassing parliament regarding Article 50).

(Feel free to share this link with others)

https://bestforbritain.org/vote-smart (https://bestforbritain.org/vote-smart)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 02, 2017, 07:40:12 AM
http://evolvepolitics.com/ (http://evolvepolitics.com/)

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/ (http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/)

https://www.thecanary.co/ (https://www.thecanary.co/)

Apparently these are getting more read than the online version of the Daily Hate. There is hope. 👏

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on June 02, 2017, 07:26:23 PM
Though almost everyone is predicting a strong victory for her, May seems to experience more problems in her campaign than expected.
 
Here´s one case where she doesn´t do well - is caught lying or being very uninformed, then makes a poor escape from it:
"Theresa_May tells a nurse who says she earns the same as they did in 2009 that sadly there 'isn't a magic money tree"
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/870732339155836928

Another strong point of critique is her manifest absence from public debates with other politicians. Officially, she "prefers meeting the voters", but those meetings are usually staged and organized by her own party.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Holden on June 02, 2017, 11:35:03 PM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

Some common themes emerged:

Unchecked immigration was the major one followed by the idea of the country having more of a say in its own destiny. I wondered if xenophobia was the reason behind the immigration concerns. Many told me that they just saw streams of people who could legally come into the country putting a huge strain on welfare and especially the excellent health system that the Brits have. There was no mention of any specific ideology or ethnic group, they just saw people escaping inferior systems to take advantage of what the UK had to offer. The equitability of propping up very weak economies at the expense of their own was a concern.

One thing all were agreed on. They were very thankful that the UK had retained their own currency and not adopted the Euro.

These were the views that registered with me yet I didn't see them reflected in the media. Maybe, once again, they are out of touch or maybe my survey came from a very narrow slice of the electorate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 03, 2017, 12:06:50 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

16.1 million voted to remain in the EU; 17.4 to leave. It was not an overwhelming result. And given that 28% of eligible voters abstained, neither campaign gained anywhere near a majority.

Perhaps like T**** in the USA, the issue and the result aroused great anger, division and bitterness, including a rise in hate crimes and the murder of an MP.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 03, 2017, 12:57:32 AM
I was in the UK recently and took some time to ask as many Brits as I could what they thought of Brexit. I got opinions from all stratas of society and overwhelmingly, there was agreement that this has been the right thing to do.

Some common themes emerged:

Unchecked immigration was the major one followed by the idea of the country having more of a say in its own destiny. I wondered if xenophobia was the reason behind the immigration concerns. Many told me that they just saw streams of people who could legally come into the country putting a huge strain on welfare and especially the excellent health system that the Brits have. There was no mention of any specific ideology or ethnic group, they just saw people escaping inferior systems to take advantage of what the UK had to offer. The equitability of propping up very weak economies at the expense of their own was a concern.

One thing all were agreed on. They were very thankful that the UK had retained their own currency and not adopted the Euro.

These were the views that registered with me yet I didn't see them reflected in the media. Maybe, once again, they are out of touch or maybe my survey came from a very narrow slice of the electorate.

Oh, definitely immigration was a major concern that led to support for a Brexit.
But as per usual the popular assumptions you describe are unfounded, not to say delusional...

Long story short: people blamed real problems they have on immigration, like a lack of proper housing and the lowering of wages, and increase in social and economic inequality. But they have no one but the successive British governments to blame for that, not the EU or immigration.
See the link to a study of the London School of Economics linked below.
I have quoted the main findings.

As to the "unchecked immigration": that can only refer to immigration from inside the EU, since the UK controls immigration from outside the EU entirely by itself.
And research show that immigrants from inside the EU are NOT the cause of social and economic problems. On the contrary, economists and the business community are worried about the future lack of both cheap labour and highly qualified personel that is in short domestic supply, and the damage it can do to the British economy...

One interesting detail: most EU immigrants in the UK are from Eastern Europe.
Now.... which important member state had been pushing tirelessly EU expansion towards the East?  ::)
For geopolitical reasons and to please their American Masters friends? Right....it was Britain....

It is like Trump's climate change denial: a bogus story
But hey, we live in an era in which the way things really are, doesn't matter anymore!  :laugh:
Complex realities lead to simplified falsehoods - at least people can understand those....  8)
But the politicians don't care, and nor does their electorate...until it figured out it has been conned....and then to blame it on someone else...
I guess it is generally easier to blame other people instead of admitting you were stupid enough to be screwed over by the ruling elite....
Again, Trump's election is another perfect example in case... 8)

The British were right about the euro though.... ;)

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

- Between 1995 and 2015, the number of immigrants from other European Union (EU) countries living in the UK tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million. In 2015, EU net
immigration to the UK was 172,000, only just below the figure of 191,000 for non-EU immigrants.

- The big increase in EU immigration occurred after the ‘A8’ East European countries joined in 2004. In 2015 29% of EU immigrants were Polish.

- EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education  compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

- Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UK-born due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

- New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big
falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

- There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UK-born workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

- EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing

- European countries with access to the Single Market must allow free movement of EU citizens whether in the EU (like the UK) or outside it (like Norway and Switzerland).
 
- The refugee crisis has nothing to do with EU membership. Refugees admitted to Germany have no right to live in the UK. The UK is not in the Schengen passport-free travel agreement so there are border checks on migrants.


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 03, 2017, 04:33:27 AM
+1, Que.

Non-Brits should be aware that Paul Nuttall is the current leader of the far right UKIP party:

https://youtu.be/tKEsyIuTrO8
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Holden on June 03, 2017, 01:30:47 PM
One caveat - these are the opinions I heard, not my own. In fact I don't have an opinion on Brexit as it's too far removed to really affect me. I was just curious as to what people thought. I also explored EPL and Championship football, something I definitely have opinions about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 03, 2017, 01:45:12 PM
One caveat - these are the opinions I heard, not my own. In fact I don't have an opinion on Brexit as it's too far removed to really affect me. I was just curious as to what people thought. I also explored EPL and Championship football, something I definitely have opinions about.

That was totally understood.  :) 

And I am not surprised you heard them since these were/are an important driving force behind Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 03, 2017, 11:47:35 PM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 04, 2017, 01:14:18 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q


This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 01:39:34 AM
This is all true, but far more importantly May gets to stay Prime Minister. And when Brexit goes tits up I'm sure there'll be a few scapegoats to choose from.

Easiest will be I guess to blame everything again on the EU...which is naturally out to "punish" the UK (even if that would inflict damage on its own interests.... the wonders of "reverse psychology"...)

This aftermath would estrange the UK even more from the rest of Europe...

Regarding your best friends and close allies as "enemies" that are out yo get you.... the comparison with the paranoia of Trumpian America isn't far away.

Meanwhile, and most sadly so, the real threats are much closer at home. My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks... :(

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.

Q
Title: We Will Use the Muzz to Force UK Back Into the EU
Post by: snyprrr on June 04, 2017, 07:11:29 AM
"UK back in the EU, or we unleash the full hell of muzzie aggression upon Londistan,"

-any random UK leader
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 04, 2017, 07:28:00 AM
[...]
My thoughts go out to the British people and the victims of the latest terrorist attacks... :(

If anything, the security threats to Europe and our democratic freedoms necessitate more European cooperation and integration.

We actually need a common European defence and a European intelligence agency to stop Putin in the East, contain geopolitical instability to the South and to counter terrorism.
[...]

Seconded.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on June 04, 2017, 08:31:58 AM
Back to the course - or rather lack thereof - of the negotiations....

The prospect of a "hard", unprepared and abrupt Brexit is becoming more and more likely.
This will hurt Britain, but will also inflict considerable economic damage on EU countries that have important trading relations with the UK, like my own.

Britain is being led to an epic act of national self-harm over Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit)

Q
I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 04, 2017, 09:28:18 AM
I really don't think so. There are some short-term downsides, but it will ultimately depend on the exit negotiated and policies going forward.

A "hard" Brexit is per definition an exit without any prior negotiated deal - Britain would become overnight a "third country" without a trade deal with the EU.

Note that any trade deal is a mutual agreement between the UK and the EU, not unilateral wishful "have-your-cake-and-eat-it" thinking.

My point was that the chances of any deal to be reached before the deadline are unfortunately becoming slimmer....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 12:42:54 AM
It's interesting to see that the UK elections that were supposed to be about Brexit, then in the run up didn't touch Brexit, turn out to be on Brexit after all...

It seems that now May failed to secure a mandate for a hard Brexit, all options are open again...

LibDem doesn't want a Brexit. Labour doesn't want a hard Brexit, but it is unclear if it wants to stay in the internal market.
Scottish Conservatives want a soft Brexit, against a back drop of declining appetite for Scottish independence.
Theresa May new found "friends" (DUP) want a soft Brexit. Moderate Conservatives want a soft Brexit.

Either hardline Brexiteers in the Conservative party back down or the Tories will descend into chaos and their fate will be sealed in a 2nd general election.

Meanwhile the EU has no clue what to negotiate about.... ::)
Britain would be wise to plea for an extention of the deadline, and the EU would be wise to grant it.
My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon, since the alternative would be a hard Brexit neither the UK nor the EU wants.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 11, 2017, 03:44:53 AM
....My prediction is that there won't be a Brexit any time soon....

Q

Ever ?

Quote
"I don't think she (Theresa May) does have a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the single market," Anna Soubry, who campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU ahead of last year's referendum, told Sky News

Mon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 05:08:51 AM
Ever ?

Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

However, from the EU perspective it is doubtful it it would want Britain back on board. Perhaps in 5 - 10 years from now, but not right away....

The UK has been a big stumbling block in any progress on European integration for decades.
To bring the EU forward and "save it" the coinciding of geopolitical crises, Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

The UK will, when it has come to its senses, be offered a generous deal complete with the Erasmus student exchange program and what have you.
After which the UK wil kindly be shown the way to the door...
Any civil servant I have talked to from various member states, including the UK, knows this: we have passed a mental point of no-return - the UK will be welcome again after the foundations of the next phase of European integration has been laid. And perhaps it wouldn't want to return to a reshaped EU...

Quote
Mon dieu, preservez moi de mes amis, mes ennemis je m'en charge..

Voltaire

It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on June 11, 2017, 06:47:37 AM
Brexit and the advent of Macron and subsequent reinvigoration of the Franco-German axis provide a unique opportunity to transform the European Union.

Problem is, for the time being the only plan that's been suggested / drafted / discreetly pushed for is a "Union" with different integration levels led by a Franco-German hard core --- a plan which is firmly opposed, and rightly so, by the Eastern European nations, Romania included.  ;D

Quote
It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

US is in a much better position than UK and will absorb the Trump shock smoother than will the UK absorb the Brexit shock. In any case, rumors about their demise have been greatly exaggerated.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 06:58:43 AM


It is a terrible sight to watch great Western democracies like the US and the UK tearing themselves up from the inside, while supposedly "defending" themselves against outside enemies.

Q

It is. The current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet. The U.K. on the other hand is being driven off a cliff by a woman whose stubbornness, vanity and cold-heartedness seem boundless.
I think I'll stay under the duvet.😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on June 11, 2017, 07:36:18 AM
The current US administration have a definite agenda to destroy their own state in order to make the world safe for billionaires to get even more obscenely rich, at the expense of everyone else and possibly the viability of the planet.


Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 11, 2017, 12:12:06 PM
Britain is changing its mind on hard Brexit, and I don't rule out that it will indeed change its mind on Brexit.

it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

The result of the Brexit referendum is the perfect example of what happens when stupid people realise they can also play a part in democracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 11, 2017, 01:22:49 PM
This is a bit masochistic of me, given I'd really want a Labour government, but as the clock is ticking on Brexit, this might be a good time NOT to be in government, given that Brexit will turn to an omnishit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 08:15:50 PM
it is probably true to say that if a second referendum was held now, the first result would probably be overturned.

The reality is though that it will take a second General Election this year to push us anywhere near that eventuality. I don't rule that out completely, but it looks increasingly unlikely.

I am more inclined to think that Brexit will hurt, and hurt the UK badly, as those of us strongly against it always knew it would, and some kind of return to the EU will become the major point of discussion for the next General Election in a few years time.

I agree that Brexit is likely to happen.

BTW for a future return the others have to agree. De Gaulle blocked a British entry twice, believing that Britain wasn't really adhering to the ideal of European integration. Very perceptive of him.... The Brits didn't enter the EU under the leadership of the Conservatives to be (politically) integrated into Europe, they came for the considerable economic benefits of the internal market. The result of the referendum is a reflection of that same sentiment, though I'm aware many Brits also valued the improvement in air quality, food safety and social rights that came along with it.
Anyway,  I don’t think the EU 27 are going to make the same mistake twice, which means the UK is out for now...

I am curious to see what kind of Brexit British politics will be aiming for.
If the deadline for negotiations is not extended, the choice might be between a non negotiated (hard) exit and the quick fix of staying in the internal market and remain a party to the Agreement on the European Economic Area. That fix is so quick that it could be achieved even after another general election...

It is going to be another cliff hanger.... ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on June 11, 2017, 08:28:41 PM
Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.
As if 'Europeans' exist.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2017, 08:33:35 PM

Incorrect.  And even if this were the case, it wouldn't happen.  Yurpeans simply don't understand the US, as this forum demonstrates time and time again.

Watching what is happening in Europe makes me even more thankful for George Washington.

To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2017, 08:48:55 PM
As if 'Europeans' exist.

Exactly.
But let's not make things too complicated.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 11, 2017, 09:03:36 PM
Brexit-lite back on the table as Britain rethinks its options after election (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/brexit-lite-back-on-table-as-britain-rethinks-options-after-election)



One minor possible glitch: Norway doesn't like the prospect of the UK dominating the European Free Trade Association  (EFTA).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on June 12, 2017, 06:45:13 AM
To compare things happening in Europe nowadays with the achievements of George Washington demonstrates you simply don't understand the current European situation and its history.

One of the guiding principles of Washington and the other American Founders was to keep out of European power politics as much as possible (not easy, and not always obtainable, since the European powers saw no reason to keep America out of their power politics).  And of course, Washington, as general of the Revolution, made sure that we here in the US were not, as dependents of Britain, sucked unwillingly into  European quarrels.   We were sucked into European quarrels, willingly and sometimes not, but at least it was on our own account, not that of Britain.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 08:52:05 AM
Anyway,  I don’t think the EU 27 are going to make the same mistake twice, which means the UK is out for now

I'm no expert, but I don't see it that way. Certainly the European Union is stronger with the UK included, just as the UK also needs Europe to prosper. It's clear that the UK needs Europe to prosper more than the other way around, but there are mutual benefits, and believe me, however virtuous DeGaulle may have been, the various leaders out there right now are far more swayed by economic benefits than he once was!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 12, 2017, 08:59:01 AM
One of the guiding principles of Washington and the other American Founders was to keep out of European power politics as much as possible (not easy, and not always obtainable, since the European powers saw no reason to keep America out of their power politics).  And of course, Washington, as general of the Revolution, made sure that we here in the US were not, as dependents of Britain, sucked unwillingly into  European quarrels.   We were sucked into European quarrels, willingly and sometimes not, but at least it was on our own account, not that of Britain.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on June 12, 2017, 09:03:19 AM
The problem is that almost everyone in continental Europe was already pissed with the perennial cherry-picking and special status the UK always demanded within the EU, so we can hardly be blamed that some have the notion of "good riddance" and don't really feel like extending another special status offering etc. after the UK gave the EU the finger with Brexit.
And the UK is not that special anymore. If the North Sea Oil dries up they are really going to be in a fix because in the long term rent extraction and globalized fraud by city banksters cannot keep an economy going.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 12, 2017, 09:07:04 AM
This is a bit masochistic of me, given I'd really want a Labour government, but as the clock is ticking on Brexit, this might be a good time NOT to be in government, given that Brexit will turn to an omnishit.

Best case scenario I can see is the Tories limp on for a bit in chaotic fashion propped up by the DUP while a Tory party civil war erupts over Brexit. Their remainers like Soubry and Davidson are already saying that the election result shows the public has rejected a hard Brexit, while the Brexiteers are demanding that we carry on full steam ahead towards the iceberg. They're in real trouble unless there's some kind of compromise position that would satisfy both sides, but it's hard to see what that could be. If the Labour "moderates" acknowledge they were wrong about Corbyn being a guarantee of electoral annihilation and start to support him, in a few months time we could have a united Labour party up against a Tory party tearing itself apart. If this also means the Tories are completely incapable of conducting the Brexit negotiations effectively they'll look like a lame duck government led by a lame duck PM. We can but hope!   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 12, 2017, 09:08:02 AM
I'm no expert, but I don't see it that way. Certainly the European Union is stronger with the UK included, just as the UK also needs Europe to prosper. It's clear that the UK needs Europe to prosper more than the other way around, but there are mutual benefits, and believe me, however virtuous DeGaulle may have been, the various leaders out there right now are far more swayed by economic benefits than he once was!
I am no expert either.  But England has a functionning army and navy.  With the US being somewhat unreliable for the next 3 years, cooperation with the UK has to be preserved on that front.  The economic issues are and will be a mess because the web of legal transcription of EU commercial directives are going to be so hard to rework.
In any event I think its going to require a great deal of compromising from all side to clean up the mess.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Todd on June 12, 2017, 09:55:17 AM
As if 'Europeans' exist.


That's sort of the problem, you see.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 12, 2017, 09:55:36 AM
I've just read that at the 1922 committee meeting May was "contrite." I can only conclude that was a typo. Still, she can stay in No.10 till they decide to release the trap door. 😈
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 10:02:54 AM
England has a functionning army and navy

Sorry to be pedantic, but it's pertinent here to point out that the army and navy belong to the UK, not just England. It's ignorant English nationalism that has got us into this mess in the first place so better not to fuel it any further!! 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 12, 2017, 10:04:36 AM
Anyway I'm writing this moments before a (cough) chamber orchestra performance of Mahler's 9th. It's a good job the music of the past is immune from any Brexit. 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on June 13, 2017, 10:49:33 AM
France Macron says the door is always open for the UK to stay in the EU

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO (http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO)

W. Schauble just said the same thing this afternoon.

Let see who picks those statements up among the UK politicians
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 13, 2017, 11:14:13 PM
France Macron says the door is always open for the UK to stay in the EU

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO (http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKKBN1942KO)

W. Schauble just said the same thing this afternoon.

Let see who picks those statements up among the UK politicians

A generous act of your new benevolent ruler!  :)

But I think it's a mistake.... now is not the time...

Unless the UK miraculously turns into one of the driving forces behind a reformed, stronger more integrated and unified European Union.

Which it won't. The Brits have been party poopers right from the moment they became a member and only interested in free trade...

(Newsflash: the EU is, and was founded to be, more than just a free trade zone...)

The UK blackmailed the EU for rebates and opt outs, pressed a US geopolitical agenda and blocked any meaningful integration as much as it could.

I think a time out is in order. And it is time for the EU to move forward...

As far as I'm concerned the UK can get any reasonable deal safe for a return to membership. Why not remain part of the internal market?

Legally I think all of the EU 27 have to agree to reverse the British exit since the UK has already exercised its unilateral right to leave.

The exit is already a legal fact, though there is a delay for it to take effect. Reentry means renegotiation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on June 14, 2017, 01:27:04 AM
Let them stew and face a brave new world in alliance with Trump which doesn't even dare to visit the UK. Perhaps some sense will prevail in the long run.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 08:07:27 AM
Let them stew and face a brave new world in alliance with Trump which doesn't even dare to visit the UK. Perhaps some sense will prevail in the long run.

I hope so too. May must get no chance to offload blame to others; she has been the strong and stable robot. While the countdown to her demise continues unfortunately I have to live in this stew! 😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Richard Pinnell on June 14, 2017, 11:28:47 AM
I hope so too. May must get no chance to offload blame to others; she has been the strong and stable robot. While the countdown to her demise continues unfortunately I have to live in this stew! 😡

Yes. I feel the same. About time to finally get that revolution rolling? 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 14, 2017, 11:49:02 AM
Yes. I feel the same. About time to finally get that revolution rolling? 😉

In all seriousness, I do wonder what the near future holds for the UK. So many issues coming to a head, and a very divided country. I think May and the tories are on the ropes yet the country is supposed to accept a Tory govt propped up by 10 nutjobs with a paramilitary background? Uh, hello???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 14, 2017, 02:24:40 PM
I think May and the tories are on the ropes yet the country is supposed to accept a Tory govt propped up by 10 nutjobs with a paramilitary background? Uh, hello???

I'm still waiting for the Daily Mail and the Sun to go into fits of splenetic fury at the very idea of a paramilitary-backed party having such influence over the government of the UK. You know, the same kind of frothing outrage we saw so much of when they were trying to smear Corbyn as the terrorists' friend.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Scion7 on June 16, 2017, 11:32:32 PM
Exit the EU, and militarily rebuild the British Empire.
The Netherlands are just SITTING there, helpless - let's get the Ark Royal in ship-shape and move in as a first step.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 18, 2017, 05:09:53 AM
Exit the EU, and militarily rebuild the British Empire.
The Netherlands are just SITTING there, helpless - let's get the Ark Royal in ship-shape and move in as a first step.

I think that may be Plan B.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 27, 2017, 01:56:45 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d45b82b0a2298dd68efb19bc55bb43b651ae1b49/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=08c281a4815ca48390552f1bd38bf34e)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on June 28, 2017, 12:14:34 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d45b82b0a2298dd68efb19bc55bb43b651ae1b49/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=08c281a4815ca48390552f1bd38bf34e)

Steve Bell is thankfully merciless.

I see today the cracks are already starting to show amongst the tories.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 04, 2017, 12:44:55 PM
Was Hunt's note view a slip or a slip on purpose??!!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/04/hard-brexit-means-people-fleeing-uk-jeremy-hunt-note-says (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/04/hard-brexit-means-people-fleeing-uk-jeremy-hunt-note-says)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 17, 2017, 10:48:44 AM
Come on Theresa get your act together, time is running out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 17, 2017, 12:20:05 PM
Come on Theresa get your act together, time is running out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN1A218M)

Her act is together. This is as good as she gets.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 17, 2017, 08:35:05 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f0cd4df392ec5730f15b1a816651e0ad2367fa5a/0_0_2693_1819/master/2693.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=68d6d1cdab32460711845c3451c66f90)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 17, 2017, 10:11:48 PM
My daughter sent me this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/brexit-stopped-second-referendum
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 18, 2017, 08:21:04 AM
My daughter sent me this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/brexit-stopped-second-referendum

I agree, there is simply insufficient popular support for a reversal of Brexit.

Perhaps there will be at the last minute, but by that time it will be too late....

Best case scenario would be the UK staying in the internal market and customs union as a transitional arrangement.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 18, 2017, 08:36:26 AM
I agree, there is simply insufficient popular support for a reversal of Brexit.

Perhaps there will be at the last minute, but by that time it will be too late....

Best case scenario would be the UK staying in the internal market and customs union as a transitional arrangement.

Q
Public opinion swings can be really startling.  The plot of the ratio for/against a second referendum as a function of time extrapolates to 85/15 in 6 months.  Not that I believe this really, but we may all be surprised..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 18, 2017, 08:58:13 PM
The problem is compounded by having a referendum with no contingency plan for a vote to leave the EU followed by Theresa May deciding the UK will leave by a particular date, without time to enact all the necessary legislation.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 18, 2017, 09:11:31 PM
[...] without time to enact all the necessary legislation.

Or without a plan...other than just get out...

I think the delusion that the UK just can walk away, without any serious consequences for the economy, policies in several areas as well as the relations with other countries is at the root of the UK government's "strategy" or rather lack thereof. 

Q

PS At least every Brit now knows wat Euratom (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/10/what-is-euratom-and-why-does-it-matter) is, why it is such a good idea and what happens when you leave it....
The whole Brexit will be a "crash" course (pun intended) in "what is the point of being a member of the European Union".
Like often in life you only truly realise what you had when it is gone.....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 19, 2017, 02:48:41 PM
Or without a plan...other than just get out...

I think the delusion that the UK just can walk away, without any serious consequences for the economy, policies in several areas as well as the relations with other countries is at the root of the UK government's "strategy" or rather lack thereof. 

Q

PS At least every Brit now knows wat Euratom (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/10/what-is-euratom-and-why-does-it-matter) is, why it is such a good idea and what happens when you leave it....
The whole Brexit will be a "crash" course (pun intended) in "what is the point of being a member of the European Union".
Like often in life you only truly realise what you had when it is gone.....

The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 19, 2017, 08:59:41 PM
The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.

Agreed, the EU and "saboteurs" will get the blame...

Which I find a quite worrisome prospect for the UK as a society, for its political stability and unity (Scotland, NI) and its relations with the rest of Europe.

The impact of that "fall out" might be stronger and longer lasting than the exit from the EU in itself.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 12:14:38 AM

The impact of that "fall out" might be stronger and longer lasting than the exit from the EU in itself.
Q

The sooner the civil war starts the better. Frankly I'm utterly fed up with the ignorant deluded bollocks that comes out of the mouths of brexiteers (or as I like to call them, fucking idiots).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 12:30:07 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 01:26:03 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.

When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 20, 2017, 01:32:21 AM
When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.

Yep. It feels like being sat in the back of a car that's hurtling towards a cliff edge, with any attempt to question the wisdom of it being met with cries of "How dare you! This is what the driver wants!".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Crudblud on July 20, 2017, 02:31:34 AM
When you take together all the truly informed opinion regarding what Brexit will result in, you can sum it up as "bad for the country." That that is what we are on course for is bound to anger a lot of people. I'm not a massive fan of the EU, but to be driven to this state of affairs, because Cameron thought he could fix his party, because bigots want it to be 1950 again, because May wants to keep her job, is not something to just say "tut, tut" about.

Cameron should never have called the referendum in the first place, but he did, and now we're in the shit. His hubris, May's putting career before country, these are not to be merely disapproved of, I agree. But I am not talking about that. What I am talking about is the unnecessarily antagonistic attitudes people on both sides have brought to the situation. The holier-than-thou remainers and the "I'll shoot myself just to spite you" leavers are engaging in an ugly and stupid manner with issues that should be dealt with more seriously, respectfully, decorously. You can say that it doesn't matter, but it is clear to me that tone was a deciding factor in the referendum, and it also spells trouble for the exit negotiations, as well as the stability of our society in future.

Maybe you think I'm daft for being concerned about this, that's okay, I'm used to being looked at funny for taking the positions I do, but I believe that it is highly important to be courteous and understanding when faced with a situation that has such serious implications for the future of our country. Be angry, yes, but channel that anger into something productive, insults and bickering will not help us weather this storm.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Contemporaryclassical on July 20, 2017, 02:48:40 AM
I usually stay away from political discussion but to say the least, I'm not pleased  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 20, 2017, 05:36:20 AM
The problem is that even if Brexit does go pear-shaped - and I agree it's looking more inevitable by the day - it doesn't necessarily follow that the Brexiteers will get the blame. Their friends in the press will be only too happy to push the narrative that it's all the fault of the EU for not letting us have our cake and eat it, treacherous remoaners/saboteurs/enemies of the people for "talking down the country" and "thwarting the will of the people", the "liberal metropolitan elite", the SNP for undermining Brexit by seeking indyref2, etc.. They will blame everyone but themselves. Sadly, it might well work.

It's started already, from reading the comments on the BBC news website. Those conniving bureaucrats at the EU say that the UK apparently can't have its cake and eat it. Reality can be so obstructive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on July 20, 2017, 07:33:25 AM
I'm just tired of the bullheaded defiance on the one side and the smirking condescension on the other. Sore winners, sore losers, two troops of monkeys, allegiances pledged to opposing flags, flinging their own excrement at each other. It's pathetic.

That could well describe US politics now....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 21, 2017, 10:22:52 PM
A rather harsh perspective from the former colonies:

Brexit a farce worthy of Fawlty Towers episode (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Quote
What has resulted is the long-awaited 13th episode of Fawlty Towers. Basil Fawlty, you will recall, aspired to operate his run-down B&B as a grand hotel but without tone-lowering undesirables, especially foreigners. German guests, in particular.

"Don't mention the war," sniggers Louise.

In this 13th excruciating episode, "the Major" with his tipsy and dipsy squaring up to foreigners of all kinds, is brilliantly recast as Boris Johnson, but I have to say that Margaret Thatcher would make a much better Sybil than Theresa May.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/480x270/p02bpx8m.jpg)

Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 21, 2017, 10:59:23 PM


Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q

Agghh now you've made me look at the daily express!!!!

Wonder if he's still so keen? And was he trying to change the LibDem position on capital punishment? 😝
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 21, 2017, 11:24:50 PM
Agghh now you've made me look at the daily express!!!!

Wonder if he's still so keen? And was he trying to change the LibDem position on capital punishment? 😝

So truly sorry for that.... ::) It was soo over the top that I couldn't resist..  ;)

But I can understand you now have the urge to rinse your eyes out with soap.... ???

British tabloids and their role in Brexit is a topic in itself....

Never seen so much stupidity and bigotry presented as "news" and "informed opinion".

And their position in this is fiercely nationalistic & anti-EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 22, 2017, 12:08:57 AM

British tabloids....

Never seen so much stupidity and bigotry presented as "news" and "informed opinion".

Q

Hopefully, they have become their own echo chamber with regard to the public at large. The continued influence over the tories is another matter though.

The satirical magazine Private Eye brought together pre- and post-General Election comments from said tabloids. The 180 degree switch was breathtaking: before the election May had made a "brilliant decision" in calling the election; immediately after, the same papers were declaring what an "appalling mistake" she had made...

They deserve each other.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on July 27, 2017, 12:06:59 PM
Update:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c2190e943e4542cbc78162294c45f94a27e94a94/0_0_650_444/master/650.jpg?w=300&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=8eebb43df30d051074f5c028452930d3)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 29, 2017, 11:37:48 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/611ba099aae6b401876561fb677d9a095d54ca78/0_0_4837_2652/master/4837.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=8e709cb83d1b78e7414fc503109ef07d)

The UK seems to be steering no longer towards the iceberg, but around it for a "transitional period"

The question is: what kind?  ::)
Hammond seems to suggest it will be an "off the shelf" option, presumably bring a continued participation of the customs union and the internal market.
How this is to be achieved is another question. Theoretically (associated) membership of EFTA/EEA  is possible with a separate treaty for a customs union  (whivh is not included in the EEA-treaty betwen EFTA and the EU).

 But the devil is in the detail. As soon as Britain wants to diverge from preexisting "off the shelf" agreements, things wil get murky and things can still go horribly wrong.

My guess is Britain will try to hammer out special arrangements but will be caught up by time,  resulting in a last- minute ditch for the present status quo on economical cooperation.  Mind you - this will still leave plenty of problems to deal with: no Erasmus programme, no Euratom , etc.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 30, 2017, 01:59:50 AM
The transitional period is pure BS as it requires an approval from the 27 members states and this would take a long time.  On the other hand, requesting an extension to the 2 y negotiations period is easy: all you have to do is ask.  If some agrement on the exit settlment is reached, the likelyhood that this would be agreed upon is high.

Why go for the complicated when there is an easy path ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on July 30, 2017, 02:04:55 AM
[...]
Speaking of John Cleese...  8)

Fawlty Towers star John Cleese backs Brexit - and suggested HANGING Jean-Claude Juncker (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/679145/Fawlty-Tower-Monty-Python-John-Cleese-Brexit-news-EU-referendum-twitter)

Q

Yeah, Cleese already was a solid pro-Brexit bloke during the referendum days, as was another so-called/so-thought lefty, Johnny Rotten, front singer of the Sex Pistols. Well, who knows, maybe, finally, Johnny will get his 'Anarchy in the UK'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 31, 2017, 08:50:06 AM
No 10 contradicts Hammond over 'off-the-shelf' Brexit transition deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/31/no-10-rejects-off-the-shelf-transitional-deal-for-brexit)


Doesn't look good....at al..This way, the UK is going to end up empty handed.... ::)

NO deal is better than a bad ANY deal?  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on July 31, 2017, 03:42:30 PM
I agree with you Que.  It looks that the only way the worst can be avoided is removing Theresa May from office.  And if it happens, everything will look like a big waste.

Cameron+May: a real losing proposition
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 01, 2017, 10:16:41 PM
I agree with you Que.  It looks that the only way the worst can be avoided is removing Theresa May from office.  And if it happens, everything will look like a big waste.


Get ready for the big waste; the tories have seen how toxic May is for their electoral chances. She's kept in the job till they pull the trigger.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242)

(Scroll down to see what happened to her likeability in the short time she was (minimally) exposed to the electorate).




Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 03, 2017, 01:56:19 PM
Interesting article by the professor of government at King's College, London.
Dare one hope?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 03, 2017, 03:36:23 PM
Interesting article by the professor of government at King's College, London.
Dare one hope?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft)

The only way I can see the final Brexit deal (assuming there is one) going through without another referendum is if it's as good a deal as the Brexiteers are claiming it will be. The chances of that would appear to be somewhere between zero and bugger all and I can't see a bad deal being allowed to simply go through without the public getting a vote on it. It wouldn't necessarily have to be a referendum, it might be a general election, but either way the pressure for a public vote will surely become overwhelming.

The Brexiteers' commitment to "letting the people have their say" was, it would seem, a one-shot deal. Hopefully that stance will prove to be unsustainable. If Brexit is going to be the roaring success that they say it is, they would surely have no problem winning another vote. Given the monumental significance of the deal, whatever form it takes, it would be an act of staggering arrogance to try to force it on the country without a vote, though it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they try to do just that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on August 03, 2017, 10:08:24 PM
The main question is not what the British voters will hold of it, but whether the other 27 member states will accept anything else but Brexit. My guess is that they won't.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 03, 2017, 10:40:18 PM
Theresa May should never have signed Article 50 when she did. It was all about asserting her 'authority' and now she has none.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 03, 2017, 10:59:48 PM
The main question is not what the British voters will hold of it, but whether the other 27 member states will accept anything else but Brexit. My guess is that they won't.

I'm afraid so too..... ::)

Unless the UK changes its mind, in which case an extended exit period could be used to negotiate the terms of the UK's renewed membership, prospects look very gloomy....

Not because the EU doesn't want to make a deal, but because the UK's government has no exit strategy other than unrealistic expectations about ending its cooperation in its most successful political and economic alliance ever, but still reap its full benefits.

May's famous "red lines" make any other option than a hard Brexit impossible, no matter how much good will there is from the other side...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on August 13, 2017, 01:51:00 AM
If I would be a European negotiator on the Brexit team, my patience would be running low

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP)

This speech of Esteban Gonzales Pons, European deputy, reflects my feeling at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/v/dhiMNCyXcFg
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2017, 02:55:47 AM
Hear, hear..... :)

Great speech BTW...

Europa and its democratic values are under siege from outside and inside forces....

While the British reenact Dunkirk..... ::) But it's not going to save them this time around....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 13, 2017, 07:31:15 AM

While the British reenact Dunkirk..... ::) But it's not going to save them this time around....

Q

Yes, it is very sad. For me, the only good thing about this stupidity is the whole house of cards has been built by the tories so hopefully it is them that will be buried when it collapses.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2017, 09:10:50 PM
Great relief was caused by the announcement (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/hammond-and-fox-brexit-transition-would-not-be-way-to-remain) that hard & soft liners within the UK government agreed on a common Brexit strategy!!  :)

But on a closer look, it doesn't look like much....

One thing seems clear: the soft liners lead by Chancellor Hammond are loosing the battle.... ::)
After Hammond's idea of a continued participation of some sorts of the internal market (EEA) during a lengthy transition period was shot down, now there is "agreement" on the immediate discontinuation of the customs union. And the transition prriod will be short, like 2-3 years.

So, what will actually be the state of things during this transition period?

“That is why we believe a time-limited interim period will be important to further our national interest and give business greater certainty – but it cannot be indefinite; it cannot be a back door to staying in the EU.”

“We are also clear that during this period our borders must continue to operate smoothly; goods bought on the internet must still cross borders; businesses must still be able to supply their customers across the EU and our innovative, world-leading companies must be able to hire the talent they need, including from within the EU.”


I have no idea what this means... "smoothly operating borders" without maintaining temporarily the status quo on the movement of goods & services?  ???

Seems like another of these cakes....the ones you can have & eat....


Meanwhile Hammond is under fire (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/13/philip-hammond-hard-brexit-tories-uk-customs-union) of giving in too much to the hard liners...

I think he basically lost the battle for a soft transitional Brexit.
This might lead to consequences within the ranks of the Tories: pro Europeans might decide to leave the boat...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 13, 2017, 09:53:03 PM
Q,
It's a cold day in hell when a tory jumps ship 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 14, 2017, 11:36:14 AM
Q,
It's a cold day in hell when a tory jumps ship 😉

Ah, you might be right....  It would mean the end of their party.


Oh dear....

Philip Hammond and Liam Fox’s Brexit transition plan is a pipe dream (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/14/eu-brexit-transition-period-liam-fox-philip-hammond)

Now what... ? ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on August 14, 2017, 11:52:11 AM
As I have said previously a special transition regime has to be approved by every one of the 27 members states, while requesting an extention of the 24 months negotiation period to say 36 months does not.

So yes this vague and vaporous transitional period is a pipe dream.

Their article shows how unprepared they still are, in spite of  their eager "we are ready" statement.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 14, 2017, 01:32:55 PM
Ah, you might be right....  It would mean the end of their party.

Q

Call me biased and ignorant, but it seems to me that (in the UK at least) the left is generally driven by fairly fixed ideas. As the popularity of these ideas wax and wane so does the popularity of the party/s of the left. On the other hand, the right seems quite simply (ruthlessly,efficiently) to be driven by the desire to be in power. Ideas are of secondary importance and so can be ditched, recalled, reshaped, created at will, depending on what the drive for power requires. As Orwell said, power is not a means, it is an end. Because of this hollowness at the heart of the right wing there is less need or likelihood for tories to "jump ship."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 14, 2017, 03:00:13 PM
Call me biased and ignorant, but it seems to me that (in the UK at least) the left is generally driven by fairly fixed ideas. As the popularity of these ideas wax and wane so does the popularity of the party/s of the left. On the other hand, the right seems quite simply (ruthlessly,efficiently) to be driven by the desire to be in power. Ideas are of secondary importance and so can be ditched, recalled, reshaped, created at will, depending on what the drive for power requires. As Orwell said, power is not a means, it is an end. Because of this hollowness at the heart of the right wing there is less need or likelihood for tories to "jump ship."

There is a lot of truth in this, but the one issue to which it does not seem to apply is Europe. The anti-EU headbangers ensured that their party got slaughtered at the 1997 election but they didn't care. It's an obsession for them, and Brexit is their ideological G-spot.

It's looking more and more possible that we really could crash out with no deal at all. The EU has made it abundantly clear that we aren't going to get a "have our cake and eat it" deal. Whatever we get is going to be significantly worse than what we have now, and is therefore going to do a lot of damage. Labour won't want to support a deal that inflicts major damage on the country, so they'd almost certainly have to vote against it (I suppose in theory they could abstain, but that would hardly be a credible stance on an issue of such monumental importance). Even a bad deal will only happen if we agree to pay the "divorce bill", or at least a very substantial portion of it - but that will be too much for the Brexit zealots to stomach, so they would probably vote against it as well, albeit for very different reasons. In which case it won't get through the Commons. And obviously the sort of deal that would be acceptable to the hardcore Brexiteers would be completely unacceptable to Labour, the other opposition parties and more moderate Tory MPs (to say nothing of the EU). It's looking really grim.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 04:09:29 AM
Ideological g-spot.  :D :D :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 04:16:47 AM
Grim indeed, Mr Minnow.

On a happier note, when I catch sight of the front pages of the Mail and the Express there seems to be an ever mounting hysteria. I think eventually the rage will reach such a pitch it will cause the actual copies of the papers to spontaneously combust.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 04:20:59 AM
Mr Minnow,
Is your avatar Mr Austerity himself, George O. ????

I had an Osborne avatar once, but soon found it too unsettling. So I changed it back to Enoch Powell.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2017, 09:08:08 AM
Mr Minnow,
Is your avatar Mr Austerity himself, George O. ????

I had an Osborne avatar once, but soon found it too unsettling. So I changed it back to Enoch Powell.

https://www.youtube.com/v/A5qrlOOPwZ8
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 12:15:02 PM
https://www.youtube.com/v/A5qrlOOPwZ8

I'd have to say: what the fuck?


🙀
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2017, 02:27:42 PM
I'd have to say: what the fuck?


🙀

Seaside Treats was my introduction to Cardiacs and my initial reaction was similar to yours - in fact it's the usual reaction for anyone unfamiliar with them. After the five minutes of The Consultant's Flower Garden finished and it said "the end" I was wondering what I'd just seen. Then my friend said "it's not the end, there are three songs to follow and it gets even stranger." He was right!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 15, 2017, 10:02:25 PM
I'll give em a whizz.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 16, 2017, 04:19:32 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper)

Two bits of this stood out for me:

Quote
But to understand how this seems to the Irish government and to most people on the island, imagine you are in a decent job. It is reasonably paid, apparently secure and the working environment is quite amicable. Your neighbour, who you like but do not quite trust (there’s a bit of history there) comes to you with a proposition. She’s establishing an extremely risky start-up venture with a high probability of catastrophic failure. Will you join her? Well, you ask, what are the possible rewards? Ah, she says, if – against the odds – everything goes splendidly, you’ll get the same pay and conditions you have now.

This is, in essence, what the British government is offering Ireland. If everything goes fantastically well, you’ll end up with, um, the status quo.

Quote
This is why the position paper, for all its nice words, feels less like a serious attempt to find solutions and more like an early move in the blame game that will unfold when those solutions have not been found. It claims the moral high ground: Britain is utterly opposed to a hard border. Thus, when the EU responds by saying that a hard border follows inevitably from a decision to leave the customs union, it will be the EU’s fault.

The disconnection from reality of the UK government's approach - I was about to say "strategy" but I think that would be giving them far too much credit - is such that it is indeed starting to appear as though they've looked into the abyss, realised what a colossal shitshow Brexit will be, and concluded that the only way they can save their necks is by adopting positions that they know the EU can't possibly agree to. And then blame the EU for not agreeing to those things. At which point the narrative will no doubt be that the EU is out to punish us.

Maybe the hardcore Brexiteers like Fox still believe their own guff about the sunlit uplands, but the less ideologically committed must have started to realise that Brexit is like blowing your own feet off with a shotgun as you're about to start running a marathon.

 


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on August 17, 2017, 04:12:09 AM
If I would be a European negotiator on the Brexit team, my patience would be running low

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUKKBN1AS0XP)

This speech of Esteban Gonzales Pons, European deputy, reflects my feeling at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/v/dhiMNCyXcFg

A really great speech, and one that absolutely reflects how Europe is seen from this side of the pond - well, the northern part of the pond, I should say  :).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 17, 2017, 06:20:18 AM
A really great speech, and one that absolutely reflects how Europe is seen from this side of the pond - well, the northern part of the pond, I should say  :).
Yes - a truly great speech. Thank you for posting it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 17, 2017, 07:33:10 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 27, 2017, 11:30:28 PM
If the UK really does have to leave the EU, Labour seem to be overtly becoming the "soft Brexit" option. Politically this is a good move - in terms of popularity within the Party and the country at large. Also it puts great pressure on the Tories, which is always a good thing. 😼
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 28, 2017, 02:50:03 PM
If the UK really does have to leave the EU, Labour seem to be overtly becoming the "soft Brexit" option. Politically this is a good move - in terms of popularity within the Party and the country at large. Also it puts great pressure on the Tories, which is always a good thing. 😼

The Tories seem to be feeling the pressure already. Headline in tomorrow's Torygraph: "Britain's fury at 'unhelpful' Barnier". Or, to put it another way, Barnier is sticking to the negotiating brief he's been given. You know, the one that he can't change - and couldn't change even if he wanted to - and which can only be changed by the other 27.

It seems they may be finally starting to realise that the Brexiteers were engaged in nothing more than empty bluster when they assured us that when push comes to shove the EU will back down. We've already had Boris concede we'll have to pay a divorce bill, which is a rather different attitude to his previous comment that the EU can "go whistle". Still, at least we're represented in these negotiations by a team of true statesmen with a well thought-out strategy - we could easily have been stuck with a bunch of delusional f**kwits who don't know their collective arse from their elbow. Just imagine!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Est.1965 on August 29, 2017, 01:26:47 PM
Brexit Negotiations?

LOL
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 29, 2017, 01:36:33 PM
Brexit Negotiations?

LOL

What's the take on all this in Scotland? How do you see it panning out (within Scottish politics)?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 02:01:24 PM
Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames. It's an ideological dream which they might well try to push as "our only hope" if the negotiations with the EU go tits up and we crash out with no deal. I can't see the Scots wanting to be chained to a country cast in the image of hard right nutters like Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. They would surely vote for independence in droves. If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Est.1965 on August 29, 2017, 02:34:52 PM
What's the take on all this in Scotland? How do you see it panning out (within Scottish politics)?

In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   :-X

Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames....If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

I wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   :'( :laugh:

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 29, 2017, 03:10:08 PM
In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   :-X

Just how bad the final deal is will surely be the deciding factor as far as independence is concerned. If we get a deal which is pretty bad but not an outright catastrophe then maybe a majority of Scots will decide to stick with the UK as "better the devil you know". But if Brexit turns out to be a train wreck - a very distinct possibility - then independence might actually look like the less risky option. Still a leap in the dark with pitfalls aplenty of course, but that may not seem so bad if the alternative looks certain to be a disaster. And if that's the case, I doubt the Tories could rely on Colonel Davidson to spin them out of that particular hole. She may be effective when on the offensive, but when she has to defend something controversial she really struggles. Though if the Brexit deal is that bad I'm not sure even she would want to try to defend it.

Quote
I wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   :'( :laugh:

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***

Believe me, if I'd meant what those two sentences mean when juxtaposed in isolation I'd be seriously concerned about the state of my sanity!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on August 29, 2017, 08:01:26 PM
Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames. It's an ideological dream which they might well try to push as "our only hope" if the negotiations with the EU go tits up and we crash out with no deal. I can't see the Scots wanting to be chained to a country cast in the image of hard right nutters like Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. They would surely vote for independence in droves. If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

Never mind Ireland, Scotland will need a "hard" border to minimise the influx of refugees from England. I'm already packing.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 01, 2017, 02:53:50 AM
These negotiations seem to reflect the UK and European characters very well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 13, 2017, 08:49:19 PM
Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-taking-back-control-united-kingdom-giving-up-control/



PS No idea why Juncker is whining about Brexit - with the Brits still aboard the EU could absolutely forget all about its new agenda for further integration, like a common defense, tax harmonisations, a EU monetary fund, etc., etc.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on September 14, 2017, 05:58:10 AM
And this, from the Guardian (but wriiten by a non-Brit):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 14, 2017, 07:06:25 AM
Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

Unfortunately, reality is never going to sink into the brexiteers.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 15, 2017, 02:54:48 PM
Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all)

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 15, 2017, 10:26:08 PM
Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all)

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!

You wouldn't trust him to tell you the time.

Why is he still in a job? Any job.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 15, 2017, 11:48:53 PM
No matter how you look at it, the best solution has been staring us in the face from day one:

The UK stays in the internal market and customs union for at least a transitional period for the remaining duration of the current EU budget, which would mean about two years I believe. It would avoid a cliff edge Brexit and resolve the EU's budgetary problem.

It could be arranged by a customs treaty and the UK either joining EFTA, or joining the treaty on the European Economic Area on its own (which requires a treaty change), or by way of seperate treaties replicating it.

Since these are "off the shelf" options, the whole arrangement could be fixed fairly smoothly and quickly.

The reason why the UK seems reluctant to acknowledge the obvious, is IMO the fear that it would eventually become a permanent situation for domestic political reasons.
A new UK government could easily delay, postpone or rule out any full withdrawal from European economic cooperation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 15, 2017, 11:57:44 PM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 16, 2017, 12:27:03 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

Another option would be to move to Scotland before it secedes....  ;)


Anyway, damage control by staying in the internal market seems to best option at the moment.

Eurosceptic Neo-Marxist Corbyn doesn't want that either, but might be pursuaded by the rest of his party.

And before it is all over, I wouldn't rule out a major political/constitutional crisis either.... All the necessary ingredients are there: an outdated political system,  unequal distribution of political power and of wealth, major domestic tensions and major external pressures.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 16, 2017, 02:57:42 AM
Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/uks-boris-johnson-reignites-leadership-speculation-with-brexit-plans-idUSKCN1BR0AU)

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 06:02:32 AM
Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/uks-boris-johnson-reignites-leadership-speculation-with-brexit-plans-idUSKCN1BR0AU)

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.

From the article:

Quote
Once out of the European Union, the country should borrow to invest in infrastructure

How odd - when Corbyn proposes borrowing to invest he's accused of thinking there's a magic money tree and the Tory press assures us that such plans would lead to economic collapse. But when it comes from good old Boris it's apparently fine. It's almost as if there were some kind of double standard at work.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 06:07:35 AM
Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 06:25:06 AM
For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!

That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 16, 2017, 07:16:42 AM
That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.

It would be Royston Vasey Mk II. With a Local Shop and everything.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 16, 2017, 01:11:50 PM
Frankie Boyle piece on Brexit (and Trump n Clinton)

https://youtu.be/VzNOy7v_4wA

NSFW 🤐
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2017, 03:51:37 PM
Worth a read:

https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/ (https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on September 21, 2017, 11:00:55 PM
An interesting read in the Financial Times:

Brexit is Britain's gift to the world (https://www.ft.com/content/a6b1f948-9d8e-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5)

Q

I'll take your word for it; the FT has a paywall. 😳
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 22, 2017, 06:52:37 AM
Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

 no concrete figure for Brexit bill
 some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

 Good luck Britain.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2017, 09:46:40 AM
Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

 no concrete figure for Brexit bill
 some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

 Good luck Britain.

Some reaction:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/22/theresa-may-florence-speech-brexit-plan (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/22/theresa-may-florence-speech-brexit-plan)

John Redwood's take on it is interesting: apparently we're the ones in a strong position and it's the EU that has no plan. No, really.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on September 22, 2017, 12:39:13 PM

- Quite interesting reactions.

On the financial front, Moodys downgrades the UK debt.....just a few hours after Theresa May speech.  And the city opened the champagne as they understood that Brexit will never happen at the rate things are going.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2017, 12:06:09 AM
Things are looking increasingly gloomy... From the ft:

Quote
Germany rejects May’s Brexit transition hopes. Berlin-led countries insist divorce bill from EU will be resolved first.

Germany and France have dashed British hopes of fast-tracking talks on a two-year post-Brexit transition deal, insisting that the UK’s EU divorce bill be resolved first. British officials had hoped that EU leaders would jump-start negotiations at a high-profile Brussels summit in two weeks by approving the opening of talks on a transition period after Britain’s exit in 2019, which Theresa May proposed in her Florence address last month. But according to European diplomats, a Germany-led group of EU countries has demanded more clarity on the long-term financial commitments Britain will honour. The UK insists it will only do this once the shape of its future relationship with the EU is clear, including a transition period. Essential stories related to this article Brexit Brexit number crunch: the final bill the EU could accept.

Berlin’s tough stance will be of particular concern to London, coming just a week after Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, met Mrs May to discuss Brexit and her Florence speech, which offered to use transition payments to cover an EU budget shortfall of at least €20bn. The setback comes amid further signs that post-Florence hopes of smoother Brexit sailing are beginning to fade. The UK’s two main negotiators are battling each other for staff and resources days before the fifth round of Brexit talks begin next week. According to an internal email seen by the Financial Times, Olly Robbins, who left his job as head of the Department for Exiting the EU last month to set up a rival “Europe Unit” in Downing Street, is openly trying to poach his former colleagues from David Davis, the Brexit secretary.

The Berlin roadblock and renewed cabinet infighting comes after the disarray at this week’s Conservative party conference, sapping Mrs May of much of the momentum she enjoyed after her well-received address in Italy. The uncompromising positions in Berlin and Paris emerged on Friday as ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU members held their first debate on the union’s approach to transition talks, including the option of approving exploratory negotiations at an October summit. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, outlined the potential benefits of opening talks on a transition deal at the meeting. He argued that they could create space to resolve the big outstanding issues on a Brexit bill, as well as recognise Britain’s recent more accommodative stance. But this option was firmly rejected by a group of countries led by Germany and France, which took a stricter view on the sequence of negotiations, according to several diplomats briefed on the meeting. Germany’s resistance suggests that the EU27 will not let up pressure on divorce issues in the coming months, in spite of the Florence overture from Mrs May. One EU ambassador told his colleagues: “We are not here to save the Tory party.”

As a gesture to recognise progress, the EU is considering starting an internal “scoping” exercise on a transition deal, where the EU27 would prepare for talks with the UK at a later stage. While an advance of sorts, this falls well short of London’s hopes that talks would begin after the summit in October. Some diplomats involved in the discussions speculated that Berlin’s tough line may be tactical to raise pressure and lower expectations ahead of a summit where EU leaders would take a more accommodating approach. Mr Barnier argued that the Berlin-backed approach should make the summit of EU leaders in October a “stepping stone” to a potential deal in December, where “sufficient progress” on a Brexit bill is acknowledged and transition talks can begin. If a delayed timetable were adopted at the summit in October it would be a serious blow to British business, which is warning ministers that an end-of-year deal on a transition period is essential to avoid a wave of companies decamping operations to the continent because of uncertainty.

The stalemate comes as Germany’s biggest business lobby has warned members to prepare for a “very hard Brexit” because Britain lacks a clear strategy. Mr Barnier’s team, meanwhile, has started meeting national customs authorities handling UK trade to make sure that they are preparing for all scenarios, including no deal. The British negotiating team hopes to make progress on the question of citizen’s rights in next week’s talks but there is not expected to be a new offer on the question of the Brexit bill. “It will be a fairly quiet negotiating round,” one British official predicted.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 07, 2017, 03:21:14 AM
None of this surprises me. All Cameron's fault for holding the unnecessary referendum in the first place without enfranchising the sixteen and seventeen year olds who will be the ones most affected by Brexit - what a mess!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on October 07, 2017, 03:46:31 AM
You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on October 07, 2017, 03:56:18 AM
This guy has not the faintest clue ... needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.
Correct. Though some American guy leads the tough Dumbest Politician Ever competetion, here's another worthy pretender.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 07, 2017, 08:28:23 AM
You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.
Yes, I do agree.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 07, 2017, 11:40:05 PM
Why it’s not too late to step back from the Brexit brink (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/07/why-its-not-too-late-to-step-back-from-brexit)

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

Quote
ARTICLE 68 - REVOCATION OF NOTIFICATIONS AND INSTRUMENTS PROVIDED FOR IN ARTICLES 65 AND 67

A notification or instrument provided for in articles 65 or 67 may be revoked at any time before it takes effect.

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on October 08, 2017, 12:06:57 AM


According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on October 08, 2017, 12:16:33 AM
More and more reports telling of May´s and / or Johnson´s possible replacement within not many weeks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: mc ukrneal on October 08, 2017, 12:28:28 AM
Why it’s not too late to step back from the Brexit brink (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/07/why-its-not-too-late-to-step-back-from-brexit)

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q
As I understand it, they would revoke it and then resubmit it to start the two year clock ticking again. Apparently, they could do this indefinitely...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 08, 2017, 08:33:03 AM
Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.

You only have to look at the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg comparing the Brexit negotiations to Agincourt to see the mindset of the Brexit true believers. There's no way they would accept revoking article 50. The current Tory infighting would look like a model of sweetness and light compared to the civil war that would follow - they'd tear each other to pieces (though that may be inevitable no matter what kind of Brexit we end up with). And if the recent edition of Question Time from Brexit-supporting Wolverhampton is any guide, it seems leave voters still want Brexit come what may. All the usual delusional bollocks was there: we should just leave and go to WTO terms, the EU is being bitter and trying to punish us, we'll be fine because of all those shiny new trade deals that other countries will be queuing up to do with us, etc..

Maybe their opinion will shift when the effects of Brexit really hit home, but any talk of revoking article 50 now would turbocharge the Brexiteers' narrative of "remoaner saboteurs betraying the will of the people". It looks as though we will have to wait until we've hit the iceberg and the ship has sunk before we have any chance of sanity reasserting itself, and god knows what sort of damage will have been done by then.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on October 08, 2017, 08:54:09 AM
I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 08, 2017, 02:47:55 PM
I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.

Blaming everyone but themselves is exactly what they will do and it will certainly be the narrative of the Brexit-supporting press. There's no way the other 27 could justify to their own electorates giving us a deal that lets us keep the benefits of membership without the responsibilities - even though we're leaving - while the remaining members get no such deal. They also don't want to give us a cushy deal that encourages others to demand something similar, since that would risk the breakup of the entire EU, which the 27 quite rightly regard as the nightmare scenario, both politically and economically. But that won't stop the Brexiteers portraying the lack of such a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal as the EU trying to punish us for leaving by putting politics before economics.

The other main scapegoat will be remain voters, who will  be blamed for "sabotaging" Brexit by "talking the country down" (a phrase I expect to see pressed into service on a regular basis). There will be other excuses of course - for example, we've already seen criticism of "unpatriotic" broadcasters who have the temerity to ask awkward questions. The one thing you won't hear is an admission that Brexit was a really bloody stupid idea based on fantasy land delusions.



EDIT: right on time, here's ardent Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin)

The first sentence sets the tone:

Quote
There is no intrinsic reason why Brexit should be difficult or damaging,

Indeed - what could be simpler or more risk-free than Brexit?

Quote
but the EU itself has so far demonstrated it wants to make it so; and it has co-opted the CBI, parts of the City and, it seems, the Treasury to assist

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 08, 2017, 09:42:27 PM

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!  ???  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 09, 2017, 04:21:16 AM
Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!  ???  ;)

Q

A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

Quote
The Treasury seems unable to hear any voices except those that reinforce their preconceptions. It seems blind to the facts

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on October 09, 2017, 05:22:29 AM
A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.


The age-old problem of motes and beams, it seems.

Of course, Mr Jenkin "has form" as they say, having been one of the original "Maastricht rebels" (or b**tards, as John Major might have put it).  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 11, 2017, 03:09:47 PM
I see that at PMQs that loathsome tosser Iain Duncan Smith asked if the government would spend whatever was necessary on Brexit preparations. The man who repeatedly hammered the sick and disabled with benefit cuts is willing to spend whatever it takes on his precious Brexit. Bastard.

Predictably enough, the Theresatron confirmed that yes, the government is willing to spend whatever it takes. If only she'd said "I'm afraid we don't have a magic money tree."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:22:45 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 02, 2017, 02:29:08 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)

More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 02, 2017, 02:34:46 PM
More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.

Galeotti is very knowledgeable on Russia at least, and the info on that subject is interesting. We´ll see if he is right in this case, regarding the prospects of new, UK-related revelations.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 02, 2017, 04:27:54 PM
Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)

As likely to annul Brexit as to de-elect Trump.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 02, 2017, 10:28:05 PM
I can't see Putin's interference lead to an annulment either - who is going to admit that the whole thing was manipulated by Putin?  ::)

Anyway, I don’t think anyone can ever prove that his interference was successful, but he did try and got the result he wanted.....

US in the hands of a fool and the UK off the cliff, Putin must be ecstatic....


Considering the way things are going with the Brexit negotiations: the EU might offer an extension of the negotiations, probably on the condition that there is at least agreement on the divorce settlement. Naturally Conservative hardliners will resist the idea of a delay, so there will be more political drama.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 06, 2017, 01:17:16 PM
US in the hands of a fool and the UK off the cliff, Putin must be ecstatic....

 :) Except that he lacks the power to really take advantage of it, having already overplayed his hand with the war against Ukraine - and not being able to deal with the boycott that will eventually lead to the end of his regime.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 06, 2017, 03:02:23 PM
More tendentious nonsense from the EU's official fanzine.

However tendentious Galeotti's opinion piece was, the Graun is very far from being an EU fanzine. ::) It also has a tradition of printing pieces from people holding all sprts of opinions - including at times, people I regard as howling mad right-wingers.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 07, 2017, 02:03:57 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.

Its print circulation is dropping like a stone and it has now sold off its last assets; in future it is to be printed in tabloid format by the Daily Mirror (this may have already happened) - a sensible financial arrangement and I have nothing against the DM. It is still heavily in debt and its popular online version is losing money. Nearly all the printed media is losing circulation but The Guardian is now the smallest selling national daily and can't last much longer in its print form. Perhaps the editor needs to realise that there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 08, 2017, 02:38:53 PM
Things arent getting any better

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-envoys/eu-states-see-britain-failing-to-meet-brexit-divorce-terms-idUKKBN1D8351 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-envoys/eu-states-see-britain-failing-to-meet-brexit-divorce-terms-idUKKBN1D8351)

"It's impossible to get any bespoke trade deal in two years or so," said an EU parliament official who deals with Brexit. "And for all that time the UK would be an EU colony -- forced to accept all our laws with no say.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 08, 2017, 11:29:33 PM
there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination
, not so much based on facts, but on an irreversible fiction: as if Brussels were a dark power center that could make any decisions against the interests of the member states. This fiction is indeed so widespread that, for that reason alone, I'm content with Brexit and I think all other member states are: it will put an end to this stubborn myth, even though the consequences for the British Isles will be quite catastrophic.  :-X
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 09, 2017, 12:04:58 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.

[...]

 Perhaps the editor needs to realise that there are many people of a liberal or centre-left persuasion who think the EU is an abomination.

You got me confused with your introduction, considering that The Guardian strikes me as being liberal-progressive: favouring a regulated free market economy and socially progressive. And that doesn't match the accusation of featuring hardline right wing "fake news"
I guess its support of a global trade, free market economy makes it suspect in your eyes. Even if the free market is restricted and regultated to benefit social policies, public health and the environment.

You must be a fan of Corbyn...  :)

As to the EU being an abomination...
What has the UK membership of the largest democratic economic and political alliance on the planet ever done to you?
Apart from bringing decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity?  ::)
When the UK joined is was the "sick man" of Europe. Now it is the fith-largest economy in the world and (used to be) a major player in the Union.

I agree with Christo: only if Brexit goes ahead, this festering fantasy of total self control in splendid isolation can be brought to an end.
None of the UK's major domestic issues, like social and economic inequality and rural decline, will improve by Brexit.

After the Tories have finished themselves off, I don't think Corbyn won't have a penny left to pay for his socialist fantasies.
Sorry.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 01:51:31 AM
You got me confused with your introduction, considering that The Guardian strikes me as being liberal-progressive: favouring a regulated free market economy and socially progressive. And that doesn't match the accusation of featuring hardline right wing "fake news"
I guess its support of a global trade, free market economy makes it suspect in your eyes. Even if the free market is restricted and regultated to benefit social policies, public health and the environment.

You must be a fan of Corbyn...  :)

As to the EU being an abomination...
What has the UK membership of the largest democratic economic and political alliance on the planet ever done to you?
Apart from bringing decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity?  ::)
When the UK joined is was the "sick man" of Europe. Now it is the fith-largest economy in the world and (used to be) a major player in the Union.

I agree with Christo: only if Brexit goes ahead, this festering fantasy of total self control in splendid isolation can be brought to an end.
None of the UK's major domestic issues, like social and economic inequality and rural decline, will improve by Brexit.

After the Tories have finished themselves off, I don't think Corbyn won't have a penny left to pay for his socialist fantasies.
Sorry.... ::)

Q

I read The Guardian for nearly 40 years and, as I said there was a time when it wouldn't have given the time of day to the sort of people I mentioned, now it will print any old anti-Brexit.

As for peace and prosperity, two massive foreign armies of occupation - one American the other Soviet - kept the peace, the prosperity flowed from that naturally.

There is far too much in your posting for me to answer today, I don't have the time. Tomorrow I am off to France for three weeks to top up my xenophobia levels.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 09, 2017, 02:25:28 AM
As for peace and prosperity, two massive foreign armies of occupation - one American the other Soviet - kept the peace, the prosperity flowed from that naturally.

Yeah right, the peace and prosperity that flowed in Eastern and Central Europe from the Soviet Army occupation were indeed unprecedented.

Seriously now, any comparison between the real, harsh and hard military occupation of the Eastern and Central European countries by the Soviets, and the "Pax Americana" in Western Europe is intellectually and morally indefensible.

As for EU, it has its flaws and shortcomings, just like each and every other political institution created by humans, but it's far from being an abomination. The principle is sound and the main goals are reasonable. The problem lies rather with national leaders, who mostly lack the wisdom, will and moral courage required by the challenges they face.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Biffo on November 09, 2017, 02:41:10 AM
Yeah right, the peace and prosperity that flowed in Eastern and Central Europe from the Soviet Army occupation were indeed unprecedented.

Seriously now, any comparison between the real, harsh and hard military occupation of the Eastern and Central European countries by the Soviets, and the "Pax Americana" in Western Europe is intellectually and morally indefensible.

As for EU, it has its flaws and shortcomings, just like each and every other political institution created by humans, but it's far from being an abomination. The principle is sound and the main goals are reasonable. The problem lies rather with national leaders, who mostly lack the wisdom, will and moral courage required by the challenges they face.

We are discussing the European Union not the Soviet Bloc, I am making no comparison between the two. Western Europe, not just the EU flourished because of the peace and in some cases because it no longer had to pay for its own defence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 09, 2017, 02:48:56 AM
We are discussing the European Union not the Soviet Bloc

Then why did you bring in the Soviet Army?

Quote
Western Europe, not just the EU flourished because of the peace and in some cases because it no longer had to pay for its own defence.

Peace by itself is not sufficient for prosperity. Political, economic and civil freedom are essential ingredients as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 09, 2017, 02:52:04 AM
The other big problem with Brexit negotiation are the dissension within May's government.  May wants to keep a quotas for university students because they comes in official statistics.  The rest of her government wants to exclude this population because it brings in billions and is also a source cheap and highly qualified labor for UK universities.  The clash is here between the Theresa May dogmatic views and the pragmatic approach of most of her cabinet.



 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on November 09, 2017, 03:18:00 AM
I stopped taking the whole Brexit thing seriously after Boris's claim about the bananas.
IMHO, it's a disaster for any country when clowns like Johnson can rise to great heights.
And I'm just not able to believe Theresa May anymore. When political sentiments and opinions change, I bet she'd immediately jump on another train.

About the Guardian: I don't agree that newspaper editors and journalists should 'realize' what their readers want to read. I want the press to be as independent as possible. I would prefer journalists and editors to use their own brains, analyze events and developments, think for themselves, and publish it.

In these times, where people apparantly only want to hear and read the things they want to hear and read, any huge loss of readers and subscribers is IMO a proof of high quality and independence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 09, 2017, 05:36:55 AM

About the Guardian: I don't agree that newspaper editors and journalists should 'realize' what their readers want to read. I want the press to be as independent as possible. I would prefer journalists and editors to use their own brains, analyze events and developments, think for themselves, and publish it.

+1, of course.
A quality newspaper may overall lean towards one side or aspect politically, but it should represent a lot of different views, all the time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on November 10, 2017, 01:14:48 AM
Farage on the necessity to ignore clever people in general.


https://twitter.com/Henry_Langston/status/928910798596050944
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 10, 2017, 01:34:28 AM
I stopped taking the whole Brexit thing seriously after Boris's claim about the bananas.
IMHO, it's a disaster for any country when clowns like Johnson can rise to great heights.
I fear that this has become so frequent in so many countries that it might be a feature, not a bug...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 10, 2017, 01:44:15 AM
I fear that this has become so frequent in so many countries that it might be a feature, not a bug...

+ 1.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 10, 2017, 03:02:16 AM
A little more seriously, I think that the buffoonish side of people like Johnson or Trump might be accidental but that obviously some kinds of narcissists and sociopaths have almost ideal traits for political (and some other high level public) carreers and are shaped or selected for by the hoops one has to jump through as an ambitious young person wanting such a carreer. This might have been always like that to some extent but the present media-driven situation makes it rather worse.

(Plato might have been wrong about a lot things but he was right that one had to force philosophers to become kings/rulers because they would not want that job...)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 11, 2017, 10:28:38 AM
I read The Guardian for many years and I am well aware of its character; I still see many of its articles online on a daily basis. Since the EU referendum it has carried fake news about Brexit on a daily basis. This includes speculative items from right-wing think tanks, self-interested businessmen, economists etc - all the kind of people it wouldn't have given the time of day to previously.


I have been reading the Guardian regularly for 40 years. If you have also been doing so, you'll know that it has always given house room to a wide range of opinions. I imagine you call Guardian articles 'Fake News' because you don't agree with them?

By the way, I am no knee-jerk remainer - I had to think long and hard about which way I would vote in the 2016 referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 12, 2017, 05:29:06 AM
A plea for an extension of the negotiations in The Guardian, something May is effectively ruling out by proposing the inclusion of fixed exit date in the Brexit Bill:

Quote
A crisis point is looming and, if only to avoid total meltdown, it is time for a time-out on Brexit. It is time to stop the clock. Common sense demands it; the empirical evidence dictates it. This is not to say the decision to leave the EU should be reversed. This is not to say last year’s referendum result should be ignored. This is not to say that a second referendum should be held, although the case in favour, if and when an exit deal is agreed, is steadily strengthening. It is to say that the negotiations have reached an obvious, perilous impasse and may become disastrously counterproductive.

It is in Britain’s and Europe’s interest to set back the 2019 departure date to give more time and space to resolve outstanding issues. It is the government’s responsibility to halt the needless damage already being done to the living standards and life prospects of ordinary people. A Brexit freeze would allow both sides to step back and take stock. It would mitigate the damaging uncertainty affecting businesses and investors and open the way, perhaps, for a more realistic transition timetable. It would calm, for a while, the arguments over who owes what to whom.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/11/observer-view-on-britains-shambolic-brexit-negotiations

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 12, 2017, 05:42:53 AM
(https://www.garybarker.co.uk/files/leaver-lemmings-brexit-cartoon.jpg)

Is the DUP going to follow May off the cliff as depicted here?

The EU is proposing to keep Northern Ireland in the customs union, an arrangement that is ruled out by Brexiteers.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 12, 2017, 07:12:34 AM
This tory government is looking more and more like Florentine Pazzi conjuration in the 15th century.  A dagger waiting behind every door.  How long can Mrs May endure this situation ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 14, 2017, 01:51:36 PM
Apparently the Brexiteers aren't all stupid; they've just been taken in by tweets from Russian trolls spreading nonsense across tinterweb.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia-run-fake-accounts-posted-bogus-brexit-tweets (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia-run-fake-accounts-posted-bogus-brexit-tweets)

PS Doesn't Theresa May look fabulous in that nightie?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 14, 2017, 02:19:16 PM
Remember John Redwood's recent exhortation to the chancellor to make the Treasury's forecasts more optimistic?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/14/john-redwood-brexit-money-britain-eu (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/14/john-redwood-brexit-money-britain-eu)

Oh dear!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 17, 2017, 12:39:19 AM
David Davis warns EU not to put 'politics above prosperity' in Brexit talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/16/david-davis-warns-eu-not-to-put-politics-above-prosperity-in-brexit-talks)

Perhaps the UK government should take heed of its own advice..... ::) The whole concept of Brexit is about putting politics over prosperity....

It is estimated that Dutch economy will take a medium term hit of 4% of GDP in case of a hard Brexit....
The suggestion that the major EU trading partners like the Danes, the Dutch, the Belgiums and the Germans are not sufficiently considering their economic interests, is simply ludicrous.... ???

What the UK demands are free handouts for a non member and continued cherry picked cooperation without legal guarantees and independent scrutiny, which amounts to effectively undermining the fundamentals of the EU.
That's not going to happen, not even if Brexit will set off an economic shock wave through other European economies....

Q

PS
Quote
“We are the same country we have always been. With the same values and same principles we have always had,” he said

Lies.... The UK has and will be fundamentally changed by Brexit and will be never be the same, not even if Brexit is stopped or the UK will rejoin the EU in the future. Brexit will be a turning point in British history, and in the history of Europe for that matter....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 17, 2017, 06:30:33 AM
David Davis warns EU not to put 'politics above prosperity' in Brexit talks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/16/david-davis-warns-eu-not-to-put-politics-above-prosperity-in-brexit-talks)

Perhaps the UK government should take heed of its own advice..... ::) The whole concept of Brexit is about putting politics over property....

We've had Bernard Jenkin accusing others of only listening to those voices that confirm their own preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Now Davis saying the EU shouldn't put politics before prosperity. All we need now is Boris Johnson warning of the folly of touring the country in a big red bus with a misleading and undeliverable promise plastered all over it. 

Quote
What the UK demands are free handouts for a non member and continued cherry picked cooperation without legal guarantees and independent scrutiny, which amounts to effectively undermining the fundamentals of the EU.

And when this miraculous deal doesn't happen, it will all be the EU's fault for being unreasonable and setting out to punish us for leaving. This narrative has already started.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 17, 2017, 06:35:37 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEOBG9yXoAA7083.jpg)


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-WlbIgWsAAyowP.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 17, 2017, 08:57:25 AM
 :laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

What I (still) admire about Britishness: keep your sense of humour in any situation...  8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 18, 2017, 04:26:35 AM
I am not optimistic...

Firstly, Ireland will block any deal that doesn't involve an open border with Northern Ireland, which would require a special status for NI that is unacceptable for the DUP.

Secondly, the UK might be willing to pay up the divorce bill, but only if it gets the fantasy end deal it has demanded right from the start.

Seems like a no go to me.....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on November 18, 2017, 08:13:16 AM
The whole thing reminds me of a very context-fit joke.

During the Napoleonic Wars, a British battle ship engages a French one. In the heat of the battle, the English captain shouts to the French one: "You Frenchmen fight for money, we Englishmen fight for honour!" To which the French captain retorts: "Why, of course! People fight for what they lack!"

 ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 18, 2017, 08:41:11 AM
I forsee Hong Kong handover like images: the last ferry to Albion leaving Calais at the stroke of midnight (mid-European time, mind you)  while the band plays Rule, Brittania.

After that nostalgic scene, I don’t see why the UK should be worried about long lines of trucks: trade between the UK and (the rest of) Europe will take a nose dive anyway....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2017, 04:24:29 PM
I am not optimistic...

Firstly, Ireland will block any deal that doesn't involve an open border with Northern Ireland, which would require a special status for NI that is unacceptable for the DUP.

Secondly, the UK might be willing to pay up the divorce bill, but only if it gets the fantasy end deal it has demanded right from the start.

Seems like a no go to me.....  ::)

Q


Both valid points, but the above problems are as nothing compared to the fact that any deal will have to be acceptable to the Tory party. The problem with that is that the Brexiteer fanatics will veto any deal that they deem too soft, while the less insane wing of the party will do the same to any deal they deem too hard. It's very hard to see any deal that both could sign up to.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 18, 2017, 04:40:37 PM
:laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

What I (still) admire about Britishness: keep your sense of humour in any situation...  8)

Q

The disturbing thing is that the Austin Brexit spoof is not even that much of an exaggeration. Since the referendum I've seen plenty of interviews with leave voters who, when asked about the obvious risks of Brexit, utter such pearls of wisdom as "we're stronger than we think we are", "we'll find a way to sort it out", "there'll be a few bumps in the road but basically we'll be fine", and of course that old favourite "they need us more than we need them" (though that last one seems to crop up much less frequently now, perhaps because assurances from Farage and co that the likes of German car manufacturers would come riding to our rescue have failed to materialise).

Considering that Brexit has been driven largely by the right, it's striking just how much has changed. The British right used to pride itself on its pragmatism: their view was that unlike the left, and especially those woolly-minded continentals, we Brits could be proud of the fact that we didn't go in for reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology. No, we took the cautious, rational, small-c conservative approach.

And yet what they're now doing with Brexit is as reckless, half-baked, ideologically fanatical and unconservative as it gets. They campaigned for this extraordinarily risky outcome yet made no preparation at all for what they'd do if they won. Any plans they had went no further than spouting "take back control" at every available opportunity, a slogan about on a par with "Make America Great Again". It's incredible.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 18, 2017, 06:05:08 PM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 01:49:51 AM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.

So very true.... Who's going to admit to a mistake of that magnitude, induced by ignorance, frustration, fear, false sentiments of nostalgic grandeur and deliberate deceit?  ???

And in the aftermath, when consequences become irrefutable, nobody will be able to recall ever having voted in favour of Brexit in the first place...  ::)



Considering that Brexit has been driven largely by the right, it's striking just how much has changed. The British right used to pride itself on its pragmatism: their view was that unlike the left, and especially those woolly-minded continentals, we Brits could be proud of the fact that we didn't go in for reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology. No, we took the cautious, rational, small-c conservative approach.

And yet what they're now doing with Brexit is as reckless, half-baked, ideologically fanatical and unconservative as it gets. They campaigned for this extraordinarily risky outcome yet made no preparation at all for what they'd do if they won. Any plans they had went no further than spouting "take back control" at every available opportunity, a slogan about on a par with "Make America Great Again". It's incredible.   

What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology".... Which means Brexit is driven by both of the outer sides of the political spectrum with the more sensible middle sandwiched in between, abondended by a misguided or intimidated electorate.

I don't mean to be alarmist, but if I were British I wouldn't just worry about Brexit but also about what comes next....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 02:35:32 AM
The bigger the mistake, the more adamantly voters will refuse to consider - let alone admit - having been wrong. We can see that on both sides of the pond.

How very true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 19, 2017, 02:38:04 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEOBG9yXoAA7083.jpg)


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-WlbIgWsAAyowP.jpg:large)
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 06:53:16 AM
What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology".... Which means Brexit is driven by both of the outer sides of the political spectrum with the more sensible middle sandwiched in between, abondended by a misguided or intimidated electorate.

I don't mean to be alarmist, but if I were British I wouldn't just worry about Brexit but also about what comes next....

Q

To be fair, Corbyn campaigned for Remain, despite his history of euroscepticism. He was criticised for not campaigning enthusiastically enough, but if he'd taken the line that the EU was just terrific it would have lacked all credibility, especially after decades of anti-EU tabloid poison. And while Labour's manifesto at this year's general election may be left wing by British standards, it didn't really amount to anything much more radical than European social democracy. The constant cries of "Venezuela!" from the likes of the Daily Mail really are utter bollocks. Corbyn didn't do so much better than expected at the election because he's a fire-breathing revolutionary, he did so largely because he took a clear anti-austerity line. Even Tory MPs have reported that their experience of the campaign was that many voters - even including many of their own voters - were sick of austerity. Unfortunately for them they're the architects of austerity and there's not really a way for them to distance themselves from it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 07:18:21 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....
 
After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 08:31:49 AM
What I find interesting is that Labour's left wing (Corbynistas) stuck to their traditional script of "reckless, grandiose political projects driven by half-baked, fanatical ideology"....
Wouldn't many call the EU itself a "reckless grandiose political project"? If not many had thought along similar lines, Brexit would hardly have been appeared so attractive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 09:00:41 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....
 
After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q

I think that the British left's views on the EU have changed somewhat, and that applies to Corbyn as well. There's no doubt that in the early 80s they were unequivocally hostile to the EU, as they saw it as a capitalist club. This culminated in Labour's 1983 manifesto, which included a pledge to take Britain out of the EU (without a referendum if I remember rightly). But from that point on, as the EU started to incorporate a social agenda, the British left found it increasingly attractive, especially with a very right wing government at home steadily undermining social protections wherever it could. That process has gone into overdrive since the financial crash, with Cameron and Osborne introducing a series of unbelievably vicious cuts against those who could least afford them. As a result, there is a genuine fear on the left, shared by Corbyn, that the hard right of the Tory party will use Brexit as an excuse to pursue an ultra-Thatcherite agenda, shredding public services and the welfare state even further and turning us into a country of minimal taxation, public spending and workers' rights. That fear is a rational one - we've already heard such noises coming from Rees-Mogg, there are also previous statements arguing for this from the likes of Priti Patel and Dominic Raab, and the economists who supported Brexit include people such as Patrick Minford, a fanatical Thatcherite who apparently acknowledged that such an approach could well decimate our manufacturing and agricultural sectors - but doesn't think that would be too much of a problem. It's therefore no surprise that most of the left now views the EU a lot more positively than it did 30 years ago.

I agree that Corbyn's initial response to Brexit wasn't his finest hour. His call to trigger article 50 immediately was not well judged, though to be fair he may have assumed that the government had some sort of plan in place for that - an assumption which would not have been unreasonable, even though it turned out to be wrong.

As to whether he would take us back into the single market and customs union, I think he might well want to. I could see a compromise position emerging in which he takes us into the EEA, which would mitigate the worst of the economic damage while allowing him to say he'd respected the referendum result. But he can't advocate such a position yet for two related reasons: first, there hasn't yet been much of a swing against Brexit from leave voters (polls suggest there has been a modest degree of movement towards Remain, but not much). Second, he's having to walk a tightrope in terms of trying to manage the split in Labour's vote: on the one hand, working class Labour voters in poor, deindustrialised towns who largely voted leave, and middle class metropolitan voters who mostly voted Remain. As long as those leave voters still support Brexit, any attempt to keep us in the EU - or even the EEA, which the Tory Brexiteers are portraying as effectively staying in the EU - would probably lose him a lot of those leave voters. Hopefully, when those voters see the damage caused by Brexit and start to feel that Brexit is hurting them personally, they might be more receptive to either staying in the EU, or at the very least a much softer Brexit. Even then it will be a battle though, given that the press, which is dominated by the right, will spin either of those options as a betrayal by "treacherous Remoaners". Corbyn has therefore been dealt a very difficult hand. So far, the occasional misstep aside, I think he's playing it about as well as could be expected in the circumstances.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 09:06:43 AM
Wouldn't many call the EU itself a "reckless grandiose political project"? If not many had thought along similar lines, Brexit would hardly have been appeared so attractive.

Definitely a grandiose political project, though its materialisation has been gradual, spanning over half a century.

Reckless?  ::) I think the introduction of the Euro without a sound political foundation was rather reckless (blame Mitterand, and Kohl for agreeing to it.)

But overall the EU has made Europe a safer place than it was ever before.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 19, 2017, 09:25:00 AM
^^ Well said, Mr. Minnow.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 05:11:16 PM
^^ Well said, Mr. Minnow.

Thanks :)

Interesting Guardian editorial on the Irish border:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction)

I wish I could say that the Brexiteers have given this issue the due weight and attention it clearly deserves and that the article is therefore inaccurate. Unfortunately they haven't, so it's not. The lack of focus on this problem during the referendum campaign was appalling, as is the complacency with which it's been treated since. Whenever I've seen leave voters asked about this, the usual response has been "well no-one wants a hard border so it will be down to the Irish if it happens." I'm not sure if they genuinely don't understand the implications of leaving the customs union and single market, or they do understand but just don't give a shit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 19, 2017, 05:14:01 PM
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.

I bet you felt British and free though. :P
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 19, 2017, 06:05:16 PM
I did once own an Austin 'Allegro' and it did, indeed, break down all the time.

Well, the Germans had the Trabant and the French had the 2 chevaux...


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI)

I’ll bet you weren’t so badly off with your Austin, Jeffrey !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 19, 2017, 06:25:00 PM
Thanks :)

Interesting Guardian editorial on the Irish border:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-the-irish-border-britains-shameful-dereliction)

I wish I could say that the Brexiteers have given this issue the due weight and attention it clearly deserves and that the article is therefore inaccurate. Unfortunately they haven't, so it's not. The lack of focus on this problem during the referendum campaign was appalling, as is the complacency with which it's been treated since. Whenever I've seen leave voters asked about this, the usual response has been "well no-one wants a hard border so it will be down to the Irish if it happens." I'm not sure if they genuinely don't understand the implications of leaving the customs union and single market, or they do understand but just don't give a shit.

Question from the other side of the Pond.  (I think I know what the answer is, but I don't know for sure.)

Does membership in the EU automatically preclude Ireland from maintaining an open border? More broadly are countries in the EU limited in the terms of trade agreements  they can make with nonEU countries?

BTW, I once worked for a man who had a Jaguar. It was at the mechanic's almost every week. He finally traded it in for a Mercedes-Benz.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 19, 2017, 11:38:33 PM
Question from the other side of the Pond.  (I think I know what the answer is, but I don't know for sure.)

Does membership in the EU automatically preclude Ireland from maintaining an open border? More broadly are countries in the EU limited in the terms of trade agreements  they can make with nonEU countries?

Any customs area has to be a closed system.
If Ireland and NI had an open border while NI was outside of the EU, all imports would enter the EU through that border to avoid import duties and checks on EU health & safety standards. Once goods enter the EU customs union, they can freely circulate. This is called "free movement of goods" and forms, together with the free movement of services, capital and perons, the foundation of the internal market - "The four freedoms".

The UK doesn't want to remain part of the internal market nor of the customs union, but still insists on the continuation of "frictionless" trade with the EU.

Anyone who can figure that one out is IMO eligible for the Nobel Prize in economics....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 19, 2017, 11:52:07 PM
Well, the Germans had the Trabant and the French had the 2 chevaux...


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BN2DIXHDlmI)

I’ll bet you weren’t so badly off with your Austin, Jeffrey !
I drove a 2CV for over 10 years and it was reasonably reliable. A Brexiteer could probably also argue that Britain used to build better cars before they joined the common market.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 20, 2017, 01:51:30 AM
I drove a 2CV for over 10 years and it was reasonably reliable. A Brexiteer could probably also argue that Britain used to build better cars before they joined the common market.
OT
My 2CV was very good in snow. It never quite recovered from my ill-advised decision to put it through a car-wash.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: zamyrabyrd on November 20, 2017, 01:55:11 AM
Definitely a grandiose political project, though its materialisation has been gradual, spanning over half a century.
Reckless?  ::) I think the introduction of the Euro without a sound political foundation was rather reckless (blame Mitterand, and Kohl for agreeing to it.)
But overall the EU has made Europe a safer place than it was ever before.

You've got to be kidding! Unvetted immigration throughout the EU is at the CAUSE of grotesque, bloody terrorist attacks.
If it weren't an already agreed on policy from back then, all those countries who opened their doors to the Trojan Horses would not have been so in accord with one another. Even countries like Greece who thought they would benefit from economic mooching is paying the price with wave after wave of "refugees" on their shores they cannot cope with.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 03:46:55 AM
I bet you felt British and free though. :P

Too right. As long as I get a blue passport I don't care about the economic self-harm the headbangers want to inflict. Let's go back to good old European wars too. Those bloody foreigners that picked our fruit n veg and saved lives in our hospitals need to go back home so that we can bomb them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 03:49:38 AM
Fair enough.... :)  But I think Corbyn was less than not ethusiastic, he was reluctant.
But he had to do so, after all...... that was the consensus in the Labour party....
 
After the referendum he didn't lift a finger to steer away from Brexit, he even came up with reasons why Brexit wasn't such a bad idea.
I think for him the current situation is a blessing: it will kill two birds with one stone and he will get rid of the Tories as well as the EU.

Will Corbyn when he takes power after Brexit and the implosion of the Conservative Party rejoin the internal market and the customs union?
He might, but I'm  not so sure....

Q

I think Corbyn is ambivalent about the EU, as am I. The pros outweigh the cons, but the neoliberal aspect is a concern, which is what did for Greece.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 20, 2017, 04:19:39 AM
He's at it again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html)

Common sense policies for a happier Britain. Marvellous.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 20, 2017, 04:25:22 AM
He's at it again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html)

Common sense policies for a happier Britain. Marvellous.

I reckon he's a plant by Labour to ensure a massive Labour victory.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 20, 2017, 10:00:06 AM
You've got to be kidding! Unvetted immigration throughout the EU is at the CAUSE of grotesque, bloody terrorist attacks.
If it weren't an already agreed on policy from back then, all those countries who opened their doors to the Trojan Horses would not have been so in accord with one another. Even countries like Greece who thought they would benefit from economic mooching is paying the price with wave after wave of "refugees" on their shores they cannot cope with.

You must be kidding, since the admission of immigrants from outside of the EU is the primary perogative of the individual member states....  8)
And that includes the UK.....

http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/who-does-what/more-information/explaining-the-rules-why-are-there-eu-rules-and-national-rules_en

Obviously, European countries admitted people they shouldn't have admitted.
Unfortunately, judging from its track record,  the US doesn't seem to have done much better....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on November 21, 2017, 05:23:35 AM

Obviously, European countries admitted people they shouldn't have admitted.
Unfortunately, judging from its track record,  the US doesn't seem to have done much better....


Indeed. The worst was the immigration of religious extremists in 1620.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on November 21, 2017, 06:39:10 AM
After reading a sensible, neutral, factual piece on the german coalition collapse in Der Spiegel, I read this amazing piece of « alternative political thinking » in The Independent:


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/germany-angela-merkel-what-it-means-for-brexit-a8064861.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/germany-angela-merkel-what-it-means-for-brexit-a8064861.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)

What’s truly amazing here is that this very long article is not really on the current german political situation, but is all about GB and Brexit fantasy scenarios. The article’s speculations, « what ifs » and other convolutions and fabulations are a reflection of what’s wrong with UK politics: a tendency to believe the unbelievable, to invent and give credibility to bizarre scenarios, to ignore hard facts and refuse to face complex issues.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 07:01:09 AM
The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated. (Technically it was only pre-negotiations.)
There is an acting government and these parties still have a majority in the parliament (although the SPD does not want to continue the coalition) there is no danger of anarchy or disorder at all and especially for foreign policy it is quite irrelevant if it takes another few months for a new government to be established or if there are going to be elections again in spring.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 21, 2017, 08:05:54 AM
The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated.
Then you are going to love this front page of Liberation, a mildly leftist newspaper.
(http://md0.libe.com/api/libe/v2/paperpage/248092/?format=jpg&size=x500)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 09:17:50 AM
It is not wrong that Merkel is clearly past her prime and the main reason she is not forced to step down is that her party does not have anyone better. (And because they are still the strongest party they also gloss over the fact that they had their worst election result in the last 50 years.) But this very different from a public crisis or so.
There are still several options, rare for Germany but constitutional and all in good order: re-negotiate for another coalition, minority goverment or new elections in early 2018.
(The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions, so they will again be forced to negotiate uncommon ones.)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 21, 2017, 11:44:56 AM
The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions
A (german) colleague thinks that the FDP could fall below 5% because of their poor communication in this unfruitful negotiation process.  If this was the case,  they would be out of the picture and putting together a coalition would be relatively easy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 12:07:12 PM
Right after the election and before any negotiation there was an article in a Swiss newspaper (probably NZZ) that warned the FDP to join the government and also predicted that next time (of course he meant 2021) they would again be kicked out of parliament and never come back.

Polls for elections right now are inconclusive but most predict very little change (so FDP would be in), except that Merkel's party would lose another 2-3%. But at ca. 29% they would still be the strongest! Even if you divide the 10% of the FDP somewhat evenly between other parties, it will not become easier. There would still be only one two-party-coalition ("grand coalition" of the last 4 years that was punished with the weakest results ever, so the SPD decided that they could not continue) and no feasible three-party-coalition because nobody wants to go with the right-wing AfD.

This is derailing this thread and I don't think we want a German Politics thread but it cannot be denied that it is a mess with no easy way out. But it is mostly a mess for our stupid parties and politicians, not anything that will lead to real instabilities or riots or something (you know, one would have to step on the lawn for riots, so Germans don't do it).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 21, 2017, 12:27:27 PM
As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 21, 2017, 01:40:57 PM
As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:

There seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on November 21, 2017, 01:57:45 PM
There seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on November 21, 2017, 02:10:42 PM
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?

To some extent, but not as clearcut. The basic divide is probably best thought of as urban v rural and/or inland v coastal. But immigrants can be found all over: farm workers in the rural areas, etc. Texas is heavily Republican (but not thoroughly, as Gurn and Brian can bear witness) and also heavily Hispanic, for instance.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 25, 2017, 03:40:11 AM
Ten days to crack Brexit deal, EU tells May (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/ten-days-to-crack-brexit-deal-eu-tells-may-idUSKBN1DO0SA)


I'm still pessimistic, time to brace for impact....  ::)

Brexit: How the Netherlands is braced for 'no deal' (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41986090)

I guess due to our history we are a risk averse nation that likes to be prepared....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 25, 2017, 11:56:43 PM
Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8)

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 26, 2017, 02:11:05 AM
Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8)

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....

It is interesting how much fuss is made on the UK side about this exit bill.
For the EU it is just a settlement of outstanding financial obligations that will avoid a hole in the current budget.
If the UK will pay up its contribution, it will also be entitled to any payments out of the EU funds, which make will the total sum net out some £20 billion lower.
Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

The total of £111 billion all the rebates the UK has ever enjoyed does put things more in perspective, I think.
As does the estimated £72 billion each year in damage to the UK economy that is now predicted by 2021....

https://www.businessinsider.nl/the-economic-cost-of-brexit-in-gdp-2017-11/?international=true&r=UK

What is the saying again? Penny wise, pound foolish?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 26, 2017, 02:02:15 PM
Another giant stride towards those sunlit uplands has been taken thanks to Liam Fox, who is insisting that there can be no settling of the Irish border question until a trade deal with the EU has been agreed. So if you thought the sequencing of the talks is one of the few things which has been agreed, well Fox is doing his best to scupper even that. Naturally, he's blaming the EU for the lack of progress.

This is the same Liam Fox who, as defence secretary, was forced out of the government just a few years ago for taking his best man, businessman/lobbyist Adam Werritty, into official meetings - despite the fact that he had no security clearance. Fox also had to pay back Werritty's expenses after charging them to the state. How fortunate we are to have this peerless statesman back in government and making such a valuable contribution to Brexit.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on November 27, 2017, 10:12:26 AM
Congratulations to Kate Hoey, who has graduated from the Donald Trump Academy of International Relations with this stellar example of diplomacy in action:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mp-says-ireland-would-have-to-pay-for-hard-border-without-brexit-deal-1.3306727 (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mp-says-ireland-would-have-to-pay-for-hard-border-without-brexit-deal-1.3306727)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 28, 2017, 10:16:04 AM
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.  I am quite interested to see the ones coming forward to derail the negociation process .

This is an easy way to spot Teresa May rivals among the tories.

In the meantime the GPB is soaring.  Too bad for those who forgot to stock up on the hyperion opera-rara and other UK labels !!!

Edit: UK government denies the Telegraph article.  So which one is the fake news ?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on November 28, 2017, 11:17:26 AM

[...]

Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

Q


No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 28, 2017, 11:24:40 AM

No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.

I said "UK", but should have said "UK government".

My apologies to the 48%....  :-\

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on November 29, 2017, 04:24:19 AM
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.
We know what the denials are all about.  This is what David Davis was saying Sept. 4th

https://www.youtube.com/v/O6zEjQLTkYU
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 01, 2017, 03:49:18 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain’s own making, but Ireland’s problems were the EU’s. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK’s offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2017, 04:31:37 PM
A summary of what the Brexiteers promised, and where we actually are:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/01/the-brexit-climbdown-is-far-from-what-leaving-was-meant-to-look-like (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/01/the-brexit-climbdown-is-far-from-what-leaving-was-meant-to-look-like)

Funnily enough, the Brexit-supporting press doesn't seem too keen on holding them to account for this embarrassing discrepancy. "Brexit will be great!" seems to have been replaced by "it's worth it no matter how high the cost." Who'd have thought it?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 01, 2017, 04:37:21 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain’s own making, but Ireland’s problems were the EU’s. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK’s offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

An issue of such acute political sensitivity and importance - and, as with everything else, the Brexiteers had literally no fucking clue what to about it if they won. No plan of any sort. Just blithe assurances that it wouldn't be a problem because the EU would let us keep the benefits of single market membership without any of the obligations, so no plan would be needed. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 02, 2017, 01:54:45 AM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain’s own making, but Ireland’s problems were the EU’s. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK’s offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

But mind that the "internal market" is not just about borders, it a single regulatory framework with shared rules on goods, services and capital. These shared rules ensure that incoming and outgoing goods or services meet commonly agreed standards. That is why they can freely flow within the EU.

For instance: to assure the free flow of agricultural produce between NI and Ireland and the rest of the EU, the produce will have to meet EU standards. And for that to happen, NI needs a regulatory framework that follows EU regulations. This needs to be separate from that of the rest of the UK if the UK deviates from those EU regulations.

A solution could be to create limited free trade by ensuring EU-conformity in key economic areas and exclude the rest, or accept the economic and regulatory distortion that will result from it and try to geographically limit its impact. Not a very attractive prospect from the EU....

The customs union is not an easy issue either - the customs border has to be somewhere.
Since trade between NI and the rest of the UK is considerably stronger than with Ireland,  it doesn't make sense from an economical point of view to shift the customs border Eastwards: the damage would be greater than the benefits. At least economically. ...

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 03:10:12 AM
I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

[...]

Q


Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 02, 2017, 03:54:03 AM

Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)

I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 08:16:56 AM
I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q

I don't recall a moment of greater political chaos than the present time.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 09:23:18 AM
On April 1st, 2018 Theresa May will announce to parliament: "I have decided that Britain will not, after all, leave the EU. It is a ridiculous idea, and one that if put into action, seems likely to destroy our economy and the lives of many of our citizens and their families, not to say our academic institutions, our efforts to preserve our ecology and climate and much else of value besides.

My government's more extreme Brexiters are frankly delusional in their beliefs about the benefits of leaving the EU and the myriad complications of doing so, not least the imperiling of 30 years of peaceful cooperation in Ireland. President Trump, it is clear, will not offer the UK any sort of favourable trade deal and, however much some of us may not like the EU, we must stay within it and continue to receive the considerable benefits of membership of what is a very successful trading bloc. Our grievances and differences with the EU must be worked out in partnership with them as it continues to evolve.

I have presided over the most inept and shambolic period of government that this country has experienced in modern times. It is clear that I must now resign, and dissolve this government lest our country come to further grief under the leadership of a fanatical Brexiteer. It is time for Her Majesty's loyal opposition to take the reigns of power*.

As for me, having finally realised that I have no principles and come to terms with my own robotic but somehow also indecisive ineptitude, I shall be taking poison seeking political asylum in Maidenhead. Farewell!

*Such as that now is.


Not!  ::)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 02, 2017, 10:17:41 AM
Dammit Turbot, you got me all cheered up then!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Scion7 on December 02, 2017, 10:39:18 AM
"Steady!  Steady!   Steady!"

All will be well at home, the Royal Navy will be rebuilt, then we can get down to some serious empire building again.
I'd recommend starting with Holland, but by that time the bloody country will be mostly underwater again . . .
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 10:40:14 AM
^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 02, 2017, 11:10:18 AM
I'd recommend starting with Holland
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway
(https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/spiegel-royal-charles.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 02, 2017, 12:24:00 PM
^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.

I should have noticed the "April 1st" ....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 01:32:06 PM
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway
(https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/spiegel-royal-charles.jpg)

What an outrage! This must be returned by the Rijksmuseum to Britain immediately as part of the Brexit divorce bill.
I blame Charles II whom was apparently chasing a bluebottle round his palace whilst the Dutch were invading the Medway. Henry V would have been turning in his grave.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 04, 2017, 05:08:02 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 04, 2017, 05:53:23 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137

Yes, that seems to be the case. I'm no admirer of Tony Blair but I totally agree with him on Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 04, 2017, 07:50:12 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176


Yes, quite. Arlene Foster and the DUP have said straight away that they're not happy with this.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 04, 2017, 03:34:51 PM
Henry V would have been turning in his grave.
Well, two weeks ago you heard Walton's reading of this episode - did he actually make Henry V spinning in his grave?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 12:20:10 AM
So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

What I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

But it does make sense from their point of view. What about a Brexit exclusively for "Little England"?  :D Seems to suit everybody's needs.... ::)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9d4fc46aab2e3ed3ce927c1cbb5fe2af62199ede/28_16_4810_3231/master/4810.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=6d3c60ed8c7628b05822e79e655419d3)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 12:22:59 AM
I guess I'm  not the only one who sees parallels with the 1930's.....

(http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/neville-chamberlain-seen-here-at-heston-airport-after-returning-from-picture-id591972954)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 05, 2017, 12:39:49 AM
Quote
And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.
The UK cannot be kept hostage by the DUP.  Eventually, the agreement will go through.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 05, 2017, 12:43:36 AM
Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 12:55:30 AM
Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537

After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 02:05:06 AM
After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q

I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 05:07:24 AM
I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.

I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 05, 2017, 05:10:06 AM
At any given time, the worst prime-minister in the history of any country with a parliamentary system is yet to come.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 05:57:35 AM
So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

Even if the DUP hadn't thrown a spanner in the works, the problem which you mentioned earlier would still have been there, namely that:

Quote
If Ireland and NI had an open border while NI was outside of the EU, all imports would enter the EU through that border to avoid import duties and checks on EU health & safety standards. Once goods enter the EU customs union, they can freely circulate.

The proposed "regulatory alignment" might have solved that problem for Northern Ireland, but it wouldn't solve it for goods coming from the the rest of the UK. Why would the EU allow goods from England, Scotland and Wales to get round EU import duties and checks on health and safety standards by using an open border in Ireland? Even if a fudge is agreed in the next few days that everyone can live with for now, that doesn't resolve the problem, it just kicks it into the trade talks, and once there it can only be fudged for so long: sooner or later a definite decision will have to be made.

One way round this which is being mentioned on the lunchtime news is for regulatory alignment to apply to the whole of the UK. That would answer the DUP's objection of not treating NI differently to the rest of the UK, but I still don't see how it would work: that alignment might be wide-ranging enough that it effectively amounts to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name. Since the UK government has ruled out membership of both, it would be very hard for them to argue for a scenario in which we are technically outside both but in practice effectively still in. It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it, and that's not going to happen if we're still aligning our regulations to those of the customs union and single market.

On the other hand, regulatory alignment might be restricted to just a few specific, limited areas, just enough to keep an open border in Ireland but nowhere near a comprehensive agreement. Alignment thus limited would no longer amount to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name, but that would just take us back to the problem of the UK using an open border in Ireland to get round EU duties and regulation checks: there is no reason to think the EU will allow that to happen, in which case, what then?
 
Quote
What I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

Nicola Sturgeon has been pushing the idea of Scotland staying in the single market since the referendum. The UK government has always dismissed the idea of different parts of the UK having different arrangements with the EU as impractical, but they can hardly say that now, not when they've conceded that it could work for NI.

What a triumph this is turning out to be for May: shafted by the party she bunged a billion quid, which she only needed to do because of an election she didn't need to call, designed to give her a mandate which she now cannot claim to have. Genius.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 05, 2017, 08:06:06 AM
It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it...


Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 08:13:53 AM
We have not one but two unelected PMs: May and Foster. One of them will have to go...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 08:42:40 AM
On a personal note, I'm looking forward to my next local party get together. We have an honorary guest and speaker by the name of Keir Starmer. 😊

(Unless he's too busy to attend!)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 10:41:19 AM
I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q

Largely agree with you although Britain was so poorly prepared for War in 1938 that by the law of 'Diminishing Marginal Utilities' (is that right? It's a long time since I got a 'D' at A-Level Economics) Britain made better use of the time. I know there is an argument that if Britain stood firm in support of the Czechs the German High Command were prepared to overthrow Hitler to prevent war in September 1938 but recent evidence suggests that this was unlikely.

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 11:26:24 AM

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).

Well this is the person who decided it was a good idea to call a general election. 🤔

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 05, 2017, 11:29:25 AM

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉

Works out perfectly!  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on December 05, 2017, 12:49:47 PM
going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 12:52:46 PM
"The bottom line is that the May government is facing an impossible task,” said Sarvamaa, adding that promises made to British voters during the referendum campaign and before June’s snap election could not be kept. The government was in “an ever-worsening, deteriorating cycle,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter      (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 02:46:32 PM
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
Looks better on paper I think. Anyway you are deflecting to draw attention away from that precious artefact that you Dutch stole from Charles II.  :o
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 05:03:21 PM

Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.

It would indeed be an excellent outcome, but as you say, May is utterly spineless, which means she wants to avoid confronting them at all costs. Her problem is that she will have to make a decision sooner or later whether she likes it or not. David Davis is trying to sell the idea of "regulatory alignment" for the whole of the UK and EU to his party on the grounds that "alignment isn't the same thing as harmonisation". Well, that's technically true. But there is not a snowball's chance in hell of the EU agreeing to this idea unless the degree of alignment between UK and EU regulations is very high. They aren't going to agree to an open border and "frictionless trade" if the differences between UK and EU regulatory regimes are at all significant, because if there are significant differences then the two regimes are, by definition, not aligned - they are divergent. So the most Davis can argue is that "regulatory alignment" means we don't have to have regulations and standards which are 100% identical to those of the customs union and single market - we can have a system which is very slightly different, but not very much.

That isn't going to appease the Brexit ultras. They want a bonfire of EU "red tape" to "set Britain free". They can't achieve that if we've already agreed to have a regulatory system only minimally different to the EU. And indeed, our old friend Jacob Rees Mogg is already unhappy about it, as this article mentions:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/uk-brexit-team-is-walking-a-tightrope-to-reach-first-phase-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/uk-brexit-team-is-walking-a-tightrope-to-reach-first-phase-deal)   

According to the article, "This brought instant spluttering from Conservative backbenchers, with Jacob Rees-Mogg demanding “indelible red lines” on the principle of escaping Brussels regulation, not cleaving closer to it."

So May has to decide: does she confront the Brexit fanatics with the reality that their hard Brexit is an undeliverable fantasy, or does she cave in to them and make the ruinous prospect of crashing out with no deal that much more likely?

Of course, if Davis means that regulatory alignment will only apply to a few specific areas necessary to sort out the NI problem then presumably there will be a great many areas of regulation in which we are not aligned with the EU. That would please Rees Mogg and co, but it just takes us back to the problem mentioned earlier: why would the EU let the UK use an open border in Ireland as a back door into the single market and customs union as a way of avoiding EU duties and regulatory checks?

However reluctant she may be to acknowledge it, May is going to have to jump one way or the other, and the choice depends on whether she puts country or party first. If the former, she'll tell the Brexit headbangers on her backbenches (and cabinet) to sod off and try to negotiate something that at least mitigates the worst of the damage. If the latter, she'll cave in to said headbangers, and then try to pin the blame for the ensuing chaos on the EU in the hope that the tactic of blaming dastardly Johnny Foreigner does the trick. You know the drill, "standing up for Britain" against an "unreasonable and intransigent EU", that kind of thing. The likes of the Mail and the Express would love it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on December 05, 2017, 06:32:08 PM
The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 06, 2017, 04:53:49 AM
David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html)

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 06, 2017, 05:08:15 AM
David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html)

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!

It gets more and more shambolic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 06:36:07 AM
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 06:49:46 AM
When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.


There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 07:04:21 AM
The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....

We wouldn't have the influence over EU regulations that we currently have and we'd still have to stick to them (or something very similar). So it's obviously not ideal. But a scenario which more or less replicates our single market membership would hopefully mitigate the worst of the economic damage. The alternative being pushed by the hard Brexiteers is to walk out of the negotiations with the EU and go to WTO rules while we wait for the rest of the world to rush to our door to offer us fantastic new trade deals on terms which favour us. The likes of Fox and Paterson may believe this delusional drivel, but outside the hard Brexit bubble the general view is that it would cause enormous damage. Given the choice between that or a Norway-type arrangement, I'd take the latter in a heartbeat.

Of course, the option that makes most sense is to stay in the EU, where we have the benefits of single market membership and influence over the regulations, but that won't happen unless or until there is clear evidence of a decisive swing in public opinion against Brexit, and that means leave voters switching. That may well happen as the Brexiteers' promises continue to unravel, but it hasn't happened yet, nothing like enough anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 09:33:20 AM

There are rumours around, apparently originating from Whitehall insiders, that the impact assessments were done but were very negative. No doubt Davis is keen that those do not see the light of day...

All things considered, I'm sure they have been done.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 06, 2017, 09:58:42 AM
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 10:07:21 AM
Just to be clear: (as per June of this year, Davis on the Andrew Marr Show) there are 127 analyses that have not been done. Not 126. Not 128. But precisely 127.

Not done.

Davis also told the Brexit select committee that the assessments went into "excruciating detail". Now they apparently don't exist.

The best comment I've seen on this is that Davis' excuse can be summarised as "the dog would have eaten my homework, if I'd done it. And if I had a dog."

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 06, 2017, 02:12:28 PM
Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 06, 2017, 04:49:13 PM
Davis said that there's no point in trying to produce forecasts on the economic impact of Brexit, because the changes will be so huge that the impact is impossible to forecast. In which case, you have to wonder just what the basis is for the claims from Brexiteers (of whom Davis is one) that Brexit will make us more economically prosperous.


They are entirely bogus. The ultra-brexiteers are dreaming of a deregulated neo-liberal fantasy where workers have no rights and the rich pay little or no tax. And who do Michael Gove and Boris Johnson work for*?

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 07, 2017, 12:07:24 AM

*Answer: A very rich man who would like to operate his business in a deregulated jurisdiction and pay less tax.

Sir James Dyson (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sir-james-dyson-brexit_uk_5a08336fe4b01d21c83eff64) ?  ::)

I guess if you'd want the UK turn into a society like the US, Brexit is the perfect way to go...

But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on December 07, 2017, 01:25:26 AM
But what is missing in that grand scheme is the economic and political power the US has.

What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 07, 2017, 04:32:26 PM
What will be the UK's undoing is their belief that they still are a great Power.

The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 07, 2017, 11:40:15 PM
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on December 07, 2017, 11:41:26 PM
A 'preliminary agreement' now settled.

Detailed content:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

Includes, concerning Northern Ireland:
"49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 12:13:04 AM
UK-EU deal announced.  The published part on Northern Ireland seems like a smoke and mirror trick probably because of DUP.  I would not be surprised if there was a secret annex to be made public at the end of the process.
The GPB is going to rise.  My guess is that Theresa May government just saved itself.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 12:32:24 AM
Pardon my ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2017, 12:39:06 AM
Pardconditions ignorance, but what is "GPB" ?

I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 08, 2017, 03:31:54 AM
The Brexiteers' delusional horseshit inspiring vision of "buccaneering Britain" hasn't been referred to as Empire 2.0 for nothing.

Arch-Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin was on tonight's Question Time, during which he claimed that "most countries in the world aren't members of the EU and do just fine" - thus implying that those countries are going it alone. Apparently he isn't aware of other regional trading blocs around the world, or that most countries are members of one of them.

Also notable was the insistence of Jenkin, audience members and another right wing panellist that we should all "be optimistic" about Brexit. There still seems to be this persistent belief that if we all just screw our eyes up really tight and just believe hard enough, then Brexit will be great. So when it turns out to be a shitshow, the blame will no doubt be directed at us heretics on the other side of the argument for failing to genuflect at the altar of Brexit with sufficient fervour.


Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 04:14:50 AM
Sorry GBP british pound up 0.5% against euro this morning.

Lord, I said I was ignorant.


In the glorious days ahead, when we have left the EU, we People of Albion shall revert to the groat.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 08, 2017, 04:16:45 AM
I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q

And what might Scotland and Wales make of all this?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 04:37:43 AM
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2017, 06:17:11 AM
I assume GBP was meant (Pouns sterling)

Anyway, "full alignment" sounds like replicating internal market and customs union conditions.
On the other hand  I understand this should not impede on trade with the rest of the UK, with the DUP insisting there will be no economic border in the Irish Sea.

I suspect a fudge to be able to move one the fase of negotiations on the transition deal.
As long as the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market - during transition or indefinitely - no problem will arise.
But when a hard Brexit occurs, the Northern Ireland issue will come back with a vengeance.....

The text of the deal seems to be designed to provide leverage for the EU (and Ireland) in that situation.

Q

Exactly right. They've fudged it for now in order to move on to the trade talks, and as long as we agree to more or less replicate single market and customs union regulations the border won't be a problem. But if we say that at some point in the future that will no longer apply, and a significant degree of regulatory divergence is therefore a distinct possibility - indeed, if the Brexit ultras get their way we'll get divergence on steroids - then the border problem will reassert itself. Even if alignment were to be maintained in the limited areas specific to cross-border trade in Ireland, significant divergence in other areas means the EU will want to know that goods entering the EU from anywhere in the UK - not just NI - meet EU regulatory standards. If the Brexiteers think the EU will just sit back and allow the UK to get round those checks by using an open border in Ireland as a back door into the customs union and single market they're in for a shock. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 08, 2017, 06:22:12 AM

Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)

You're quite right. I repent of my sinful ways, and undertake to purge my mind of these base heretical thoughts by performing a daily ritual of self-flagellation while praying fervently before an icon of Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 08, 2017, 11:24:21 PM
Expats are not happy....

EU nationals can stay in the UK, but only after under certain conditions and restrictions.
And the protection of their rights falls under the jurisdiction of the EU Court of Justice for only 8 years.

I can already tell you now that the European Parliament is not going to accept this, and that the EU negotiators very well know this.....  ::)

Both EU and UK expats will become "land locked" - they will loose their rights of residence after more than 5 years of absence.
And of course UK can't resettle elsewhere in the EU freely as before.

The Tories tell us the rights of EU citizens are now secure. It’s a lie (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/08/eu-citizens-rights-brexit-bargaining-chips)

British citizens living in EU say Theresa May has 'sold them down the river' for deal (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizens-rights-frontier-workers-theresa-may-deal-northern-ireland-british-in-europe-a8100116.html)




On the other hand anybody born in Northern Ireland is entitled to Irish citizenship and can therefore retain or acquire full EU citizenship.

Brexit: Northern Irish will be able to remain EU citizens under deal.Two sides agreed the passport deal would continue after Brexit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-keep-eu-citizenship-irish-border-a8099176.html)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 11:42:21 PM
I have read the complains but find them overblown.  EU citizens living in the UK will still be able to relocate their families.  Eventually UK common law will apply to them.  I find this quite normal as it is the country they live in.  As far as the UK citizens in the EU the issue is wether they will keep the free mobility within the 27 member states.   At this point this right isnt clearly spelled out.  But after all, they can apply for EU citizenship if they want to.

The Irish part is on the other hand quite foggy at this stage and everybody is reading what they want.  At this point nothing is settled and depending on how the future talks evolve the irish deal will evolve.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 09, 2017, 05:49:29 AM
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.


reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 09, 2017, 08:03:12 AM

reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).
Wiki says Etruscan, and the latin spelling Kalendae with a K seems to support this root.  French has fewer words than english but uses lots of expressions, which are difficult to translate, like this one.

For the Irish and probably also the British, this article

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1209/926089-brexit-negotiations/ (https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1209/926089-brexit-negotiations/)

recounts the final turns of events in the UK-EU negotiations around the northern island issue.

 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 09:08:13 AM
it was already a Latin saying "ad Kalendas Graecas" meaning in the indefinite future or often "never" because the Kalendae (first day of the month, the more famous Ides (of March) were in the middle) was only a feature of the Roman calendar, not of the Greek.
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on December 09, 2017, 01:03:11 PM
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".

In Romanian it's either "la calendele greceşti" (literal translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas"), or --- and this is far more frequently used --- "la Paştele cailor" (literal English translation: "on the Easter Day of the horses").
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 01:43:42 PM
Interestingly, I never encountered a German translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas". The few people (typically Latin teachers and the like) who would use the expression at all would use the Latin. I guess there are a few more sayings, like "when Christmas and Easter fall on the same day" or sth. like that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on December 09, 2017, 02:37:00 PM
"When pigs fly"
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 09, 2017, 02:54:37 PM
Now the first skirmishes are behind us, everybody is looking ahead... and concerns seem to be all around.

Global powers lobby to stop special Brexit deal for UK (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk)

I believe the appropriate term is a British invention: "fair play"....

But not to worry - my bets are on a transition deal that keeps the UK witin the customs union and the internal market, and will turn out to last indefinitely.... 8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 02:59:14 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 09, 2017, 03:48:19 PM
I am not brit, but sort of agree with you.
In fact many people, including myself saw the northern ireland settlement as a temporary one - kicking the can down the road (the proper translation of the greek Kalendae reference) but it may be the mother of all concessions: the only way to put it into effect is to keep the UK in the custom union with free movement of people.
EU officials describe the NI settlement as creative ambiguity as it is a mean to reach their long term goal which boils down to your matter of fact summary.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 09, 2017, 04:03:57 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion


8)

Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 04:30:39 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)

That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 05:21:20 PM
That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.

Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.

To be sure. Nor I, in your place.

8)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 06:06:22 PM
Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

As horrific as Trump is though, at least you get a chance to vote him out in 2020, assuming he makes it that far. Unfortunately for us, Brexit is the result of a referendum, which means the vote has been sanctified as "the will of the people", even though it showed the country pretty much split down the middle. And those on the leave side who so loudly demanded for years that "the people must have their say" are remarkably unenthusiastic about having a referendum on the terms of the eventual deal, when we know what that is. "The people must have their say, once" would apparently be more accurate. Trying to reverse this shitshow really is going to be horribly difficult, and even if it happens, god alone knows what damage will have been done by then.

It would certainly be very interesting to know to what extent, if at all, it is possible to have a number of trade deals with different countries/trading blocs if those deals include regulations that clash with each other. I don't know the answer to that, but I'm hoping there are pretty substantial limits on how much of a clash there can be. If that's the case, agreeing to regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union would seem to make a hard Brexit almost impossible. Here's hoping....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 01:53:30 AM
Remainers have an important ally in the European Union: Ireland.

it is for economical as well as political reasons of paramount interest to Ireland that the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market, and it will do anything to prevent a hard Brexit. Sofar Ireland seems to wield a lot of influence during the negotiations.

May has stated she is seeking a short transitional stage of 2 years in which the UK retains access to the internal market, but is not in it. Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

First reality check will be that a trade deal with the EU cannot be negotiated witin 2 years (or a comprehensive deal  with any other country, for that matter).
To prevent another cliff edge, the transition has to be longer. Under those conditions only a continued participation of the customs union and the internal market with continued contributions - without a rebate - would be acceptable to the EU.

The alternative would be the short transition period desired by the UK, followed by a hard Brexit.
That would at least soften the economic shock and give more time to prepare....

But the so called "third fase" - the actual trade deal with the EU - is not going to materialise before the exit date....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 02:42:52 AM

Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

Q

 I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 03:02:33 AM
I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤

"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 03:08:57 AM
"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)

Just stop it now, I'm trying to have a nice day.

Anyway Mogg will be able to have cheaper servants running round his mansion. 😡
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 05:30:31 AM
Apparently the Telegraph is reporting that May's aides have told arch-Brexiteers like Gove and Johnson that her concession on commitment to regulatory alignment with the customs union and single market is effectively meaningless as it means nothing in EU law. I'd normally take anything the Telegraph says with a truckload of salt, but if this is true it would certainly explain the otherwise puzzling phenomenon of Gove, Johnson and even Fox lauding May for reaching an agreement that up to now they would have denounced as a surrender.

If it really is true, it seems that the plan is to give the EU a commitment that the UK government has no intention of honouring. Even for the Brexiteers, this would be a staggeringly stupid thing to do. Their vision of other countries queuing up to give us incredible new trade deals at mates rates is a fantasy with no factual basis in reality, but even if it were true, other countries would only sign deals with us if they thought the UK could be trusted. Who would touch us with a barge pole if we've just treated the EU in such a blatantly duplicitous fashion? It's not as if we can say that even this government wouldn't be so monumentally stupid as to try something like this, as all the evidence thus far suggests that they would. This is the government whose cabinet still hasn't got round to discussing what sort of final outcome they want from Brexit - 18 months after the referendum and eight months after triggering article 50.

Hopefully the very fact that it's appeared in the Telegraph will scupper this mad idea. It won't go unnoticed in Brussels, so the EU will now suspect that this is what the UK government may be up to - even if the government denies it - and will have it in mind when it comes to the trade talks. To say this does not bode well would be an understatement of immense proportions.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on December 10, 2017, 06:24:17 AM
The drama ! This is getting much more fun and exciting than Trump’s baby tantrums and the shenanigans of the US congress and senate !  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 10, 2017, 07:28:28 AM
... it seems that the plan is to give the EU a commitment that the UK government has no intention of honouring.

Perfide Albion ??  Funny I think I have heard that nickname before...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 07:45:12 AM
Rather like Trump, almost every hour you think What The Absolute Fuck?


May's EU deal not binding, says David Davis


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 07:57:23 AM
Rather like Trump, almost every hour you think What The Absolute Fuck?


May's EU deal not binding, says David Davis


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42298971)

Brexit is starting to resemble a piece of surrealist performance art.

Interesting sentence in that article:

Quote
But there is still controversy, and confusion, over what "full alignment" would mean in practice, with some Brexiteers fearing the UK would have to continue to abide by EU regulations on agriculture and other issues after Brexit and would not be able to strike its own trade deals.

That strongly suggests that the clash between different trade deals' regulations I mentioned earlier could indeed be a big problem.

According to this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/10/no-deal-brexit-odds-dropped-dramatically-david-davis (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/10/no-deal-brexit-odds-dropped-dramatically-david-davis)

Quote
Davis said, however, that full alignment would only affect a few sectors, such as agriculture, road and rail, and would mean the UK achieving certain outcomes but not necessarily in the same way as the EU did.

So if, as this implies, there are sectors in which full alignment won't apply, and that therefore in those sectors there will be a significant degree of regulatory divergence, that surely takes us back to a hard border, since the EU will want to be sure that UK goods in non-aligned sectors entering the EU are compatible with single market and customs union regulations. I suppose there could be mutual recognition of each others' standards, but the EU won't do that unless our regulations in non-aligned sectors are very similar - or, to put it another way, in regulatory alignment - to theirs. The kindest interpretation of the government's plans I can think of is that they appear to be written on the back of a fag packet. I can think of some distinctly less charitable descriptions as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 10, 2017, 10:14:04 AM
I guess the UK govt doesn't want a deal after all...

Row erupts over claims that Brexit border concessions were 'meaningless' and 'not binding' (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/row-erupts-over-claims-that-brexit-border-concessions-were-meaningless-and-not-binding-36394010.html)

The other members of the European Council will not be amused... ::)

As mentioned here before: no credibility = no deal.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 10, 2017, 02:04:21 PM
I guess the UK govt doesn't want a deal after all...

Row erupts over claims that Brexit border concessions were 'meaningless' and 'not binding' (https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/row-erupts-over-claims-that-brexit-border-concessions-were-meaningless-and-not-binding-36394010.html)

The other members of the European Council will not be amused... ::)

As mentioned here before: no credibility = no deal.

Q

I like this bit:

Quote
Last night, a Downing Street spokesman said: "We do not recognise this account of conversations."

If the reports were false you can be sure the government would be pouring bucketloads of scorn all over them. Instead they issue a feeble denial whose wording could hardly be any weaker, which does rather suggest that the reports are true but they can't admit it. It's the Baldrick approach - government by cunning plan. Unfortunately, this particular plan is making Baldrick look like a strategic genius by comparison.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 11, 2017, 01:42:33 AM
And Ireland is not happy...

Ireland issues warning to David Davis over Brexit agreement

The Irish government has warned the Brexit Secretary that the border agreement is not a 'statement of intent' it is 'politically bullet-proof'
(http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-david-davis-brexit-warning-a8102766.html)

In my view, what Davis and other Brexiteers don't get, is that this independent from the outcome of the negotiations on a transitional phase and a subsequent trade deal. The adagium "nothing is agreed untill everything is agreed" doesn't quite apply - perhaps in working out details, but not in principle.
The divorce bill is connected to preexisting financial obligations from the UK's current EU membership. The Northern Ireland issue deals with the UK's existing legal obligations under the Good Friday Agreement. The agreement explicitly deals with the situation of a hard Brexit.... The "grandfathering" (preservation of preexisting legal rights) of EU citizens rights is and independent legal matter as well.

Brexiteers assume they can walk away from the divorce agreement if they don't get the trade deal they want.

Not....that would be a breach of an international legal agreement and would have serious consequences.
As the Chancellor already tried to explain to an incredulous audience - the divorce settlement has to be paid irrespective of the outcome subsequent negations.
The same goes for the UK commitments on the way it will abide by the Good Friday Agreement after a Brexit, whatever shape or form it may take.

Davis is now backtracking on Hammonds' statement: Brexit: David Davis says £39bn bill "conditional" on final deal countering Philip Hammond's claim (http://www.cityam.com/277220/david-davis-tries-explain-those-non-existent-brexit-impact)

Very stupid, and very dangerous...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 11, 2017, 01:51:59 AM
EU statement

The updated Negotiating Guidelines the EU adopt next Fri are clear enough: “negotiations in the second phase can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken during the first phase are respected in full and translated faithfully in legal terms as quickly as possible.”

The amazing thing is that Daniel Davis is the chief negotiator for the UK.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 11, 2017, 02:18:20 AM

The amazing thing is that Daniel Davis is the chief negotiator for the UK.

Good news!

He has been replaced by David Davis. 😉
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 12, 2017, 09:52:09 AM
Michael Gove unveils Brexit for animals plan (no kidding !!)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html)

British will never cease to surprise me !!  No more bullfights in the UK !
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on December 12, 2017, 09:56:41 AM
Michael Gove unveils Brexit for animals plan (no kidding !!)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-unveils-brexit-animals-plan-005610680.html)

British will never cease to surprise me !!

Quote
As it rejects EU exemptions for activities such as bullfighting and foie gras production, the law would offer "even stronger protection" than the EU protocol "could ever do", said spokesman David Bowles.
Huzzah for Brexit - no more bullfighting or overfed foie gras geese in the UK!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 12, 2017, 12:29:06 PM
There's obviously nothing Brexitty about animal welfare, but I am all in favour of the highest possible standards, whoever makes the laws. I just find it bizarre this is coming from the party of fox hunting (May had thought another vote on it was a super idea before the GE scuppered that idea). The tory party happily drives human animals into poverty and deprivation, but wants better welfare the the rest. WTF?

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 12, 2017, 03:38:33 PM
The worst thing about this sorry mess is that although a poll today shows that 51% of UK voters think that Brexit negotiations are going badly, the Tories still have 42% support and lead the Labour party (40%) in the polls by 2%.

What will it take?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 12, 2017, 04:24:07 PM
The worst thing about this sorry mess is that although a poll today shows that 51% of UK voters think that Brexit negotiations are going badly, the Tories still have 42% support and lead the Labour party (40%) in the polls by 2%.

What will it take?

Polls I've seen recently have either had Labour slightly ahead or the two parties on level pegging, though I believe there was one recently that had a Labour lead of 8 points. But the overall picture seems to be that little has changed since the election.

I think the reason for this is the referendum. It not only revealed a country split down the middle on the issue of the EU, it amplified that split to such an extent that the public has largely gravitated towards which of the two main parties it feels better represents them on that issue. The Tories' pitch to the public is that they're a party of enthusiastic hard Brexiteers, so most Leave voters are sticking with them. Labour's pitch has been that of a party of soft Brexit that wants to stay as close to the EU as possible. Remainers might not find that ideal, but it's far better than hard Brexit so they've mostly gone with Labour.

Obviously this is very broadly speaking. There are other issues which may well start to hurt the Tories - the state of the NHS, the fiasco of Universal Credit, the squeeze on living standards to name just a few. But Brexit currently dominates the agenda and will do until (if?) we leave. The effects of Brexit starting to kick in therefore remains the thing most likely to really cause the Tories trouble. They're hoping that positioning themselves as the most pro-Brexit party will win them votes, but if Brexit goes badly - and given what's happened so far that looks a very distinct possibility - then they'll be associated with it. They probably know that, and are hoping that the worst of the damage can be put off until just after the next election.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 12, 2017, 11:25:37 PM
Labour's pitch has been that of a party of soft Brexit that wants to stay as close to the EU as possible. Remainers might not find that ideal, but it's far better than hard Brexit so they've mostly gone with Labour.

In my impression Labour is as split on Brexit as the Tories are, though hard Brexiteers are lower in number.
Labour has declined to firmly commit to remain in the customs union and internal market.... "something very close", which is basically May's approach...

Both major parties keep fudging and swaggering because of the split in public opinion.

Q

PS  Labour will have to make a choice on Brexit, and soon (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/13/labour-brexit-position-tories)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2017, 05:40:27 AM
In my impression Labour is as split on Brexit as the Tories are, though hard Brexiteers are lower in number.
Labour has declined to firmly commit to remain in the customs union and internal market.... "something very close", which is basically May's approach...

Both major parties keep fudging and swaggering because of the split in public opinion.

Q

PS  Labour will have to make a choice on Brexit, and soon (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/13/labour-brexit-position-tories)

Labour has its splits on Brexit, but they are certainly not as drastic as those in the Tory party. The vast majority of Labour MPs and members are solidly pro-Remain. The split is among Labour voters, which I mentioned recently. Even so, I believe around two thirds of Labour voters voted Remain, though it's certainly true that there are a number of Labour seats in the north of England and the Midlands that voted for Brexit.

As I said before, I think Corbyn would probably like to make an explicit offer to the public of staying in the customs union and single market, but he can't do it until some of those Leave voters start to switch in sufficient numbers to make such an offer politically viable. That's not likely to happen until those voters start to realise they've been had. It may start to happen during the trade negotiations. They will be far harder than phase 1 - which proved hard enough - and they won't be able to fudge it, as decisions will have to be made on which way to jump on those issues which have been fudged for now. That's when Leave voters may start to see that Brexit is not going to deliver what they were told it would. Labour will obviously need a concrete policy of its own ready and waiting to go by that point. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 13, 2017, 11:30:38 AM
MPs defeat May's government on Brexit law (309 to 305)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T
 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on December 13, 2017, 11:33:21 AM
MPs defeat May's government on Brexit law (309 to 305)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T
 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-lawmaking/mps-defeat-mays-government-on-brexit-law-idUKKBN1E700T)

Just heard it.

Interesting... :P
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 13, 2017, 11:36:33 AM
Hurrah!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/tory-brexit-rebels-inflict-major-defeat-on-theresa-may (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/tory-brexit-rebels-inflict-major-defeat-on-theresa-may)

And tomorrow, she's off to Brussels. Suck it up, May.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 13, 2017, 04:24:23 PM
Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 13, 2017, 05:07:28 PM
Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.

Shhhh. The Will of The People is more important than hypocrisy.

Wasn't it lovely watching them slagging each other off on the news tonight. 😁
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turbot nouveaux on December 14, 2017, 04:29:26 AM
The more the members of this odious government fight and fall out with each other, the happier I'll be, and the sooner we'll be rid of them.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 06:47:35 AM
Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers)

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 14, 2017, 07:04:36 AM
Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers)

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.

Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 08:07:06 AM
Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

Perhaps it should be prosecuted under terrorism laws for radicalising its readers:

https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/939428837598916608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fsoft-brexit-fallout-thread.418898%2Fpage-530 (https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/939428837598916608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fsoft-brexit-fallout-thread.418898%2Fpage-530)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 14, 2017, 09:34:41 AM
Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

And predictably enough....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/14/dominic-grieve-says-he-has-had-death-threats-after-brexit-rebellion (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/14/dominic-grieve-says-he-has-had-death-threats-after-brexit-rebellion)

Soubry also had death threats after the Telegraph's recent "mutineers" headline.

Of course, if there is another Jo Cox tragedy their defence will be similar to what Trump says when a mass killing happens and it turns out the shooter is white rather than brown: mental illness issue, no wider significance, mustn't politicise this tragedy, etc..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2017, 01:44:03 AM
Phase 2.. or should I say Act 2 of this tragicomedy...?  ;)

The transition phase is for the EU about retaining the status quo on the customs union and the internal market - which means full regulatory conformity, full competence of the Court of Justice. Basically the Norway scenario for a limited period of time.....

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42367532

My prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process....  ::)

On the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

Q

PS The doors open to Phase 2:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/288e1efb1da26594c4dbad8542cca44bd7186b05/0_0_4845_3334/master/4845.jpg?w=940&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=b6393cd6db8f991069d88b7bbea3ca40)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 16, 2017, 02:18:44 AM
Funny: an imperialist abhorring the prospect of becoming a colony......

Brexit: UK must not be EU 'colony' after Brexit (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42375059)

I guess empires are only a good idea if you have the upper hand...... ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 16, 2017, 03:48:39 PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour)

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2017, 04:46:40 PM
My prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process....  ::)

They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed. At that point I'd expect the opposition parties and the Tory remainers to really kick up a stink, if they haven't started doing so already. The Brexiteers' narrative has already shifted from "Brexit will take us to the sunlit uplands" to "it's worth it no matter the cost". They can't be allowed to get away with that. 

Quote
On the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

But when we know the outcome it may well give the SNP momentum for a referendum. If we get a deal it will be a lot worse than what we currently have, and no deal would be a disaster. Either outcome might well make a lot of Scots wonder if it's worth being chained to a UK committing an absurd act of national self-harm, especially if the outcome is no deal. Faced with a post-Brexit UK shaped by the hard right of the Tory party, I couldn't blame them if they decided they wanted out of the UK.   

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 16, 2017, 04:58:10 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour)

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...

Probably due to the fact that we're moving on to phase 2. A lot of leave voters seem to just want Brexit no matter what, so they're willing to overlook the fact that the government had to capitulate on all three phase 1 issues. If they've even noticed that that's what happened.

Did you see Thursday's Question Time? It was from Barnsley, a hugely pro-Brexit area. The first question was about rebel MPs trying to stop Brexit, the jeering from the audience at one of those rebels (Nicky Morgan) started almost immediately, and it was clear that the rhetoric in the right wing press - saboteurs, mutineers, etc. - had been taken on board. They weren't interested in actual arguments, they just wanted Brexit, come what may. It didn't help that one of the panellists was that fatuous waste of oxygen Isabel Oakeshott, a Daily Mail "journalist" who kept repeating the phrase "will of the people" at every available opportunity. It was noticeable that when Robert Winston, a well respected expert in his field, pointed out the consequences of leaving EURATOM, it all went rather quiet. No-one in the leave campaign told them about that, and Winston can hardly be dismissed as an agent of Project Fear.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 16, 2017, 10:03:39 PM
From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 17, 2017, 04:32:11 AM
They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed.

Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/tony-blair-the-whole-country-has-been-pulled-into-this-tory-psychodrama-over-europe) on Labour's Brexit position:

Quote
[....] our language may be different, but we’re actually in the same position as the Tories, which is to say we’ll get out of the single market but we want a close trading relationship with Europe. Your risk is that, at a certain point, you get exposed as having the same technical problem that the Tories have, which is: here’s the Canada option, here’s the Norway option, and every time you move towards Norwayyou’ll be accepting the rules of the EU, but you’ve lost your say in it, and every time you move towards the Canada option you’re going to be doing economic damage. That’s the essential dilemma of the Tories, which I think will be exposed over time, and Labour’s got that problem, too.”
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 17, 2017, 05:56:57 AM
Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/tony-blair-the-whole-country-has-been-pulled-into-this-tory-psychodrama-over-europe) on Labour's Brexit position:

I think Labour will shift its position once it becomes clear to leave voters that they aren't going to get the "have our cake and eat it" Brexit they were promised. Labour is much less divided than the Tories and would be able to live with staying in the customs union and single market quite easily; the Tories couldn't (the Tory remainers probably could, but not the hard Brexit headbangers).

The problem is that so far it hasn't dawned on many leave voters that they're not going to get what they expected, and as episodes of Question Time from Brexit-voting areas make all too clear, they're so hell bent on Brexit that they're not willing - yet - to listen to anyone on the other side of the argument. I know Blair is arguing that Corbyn should try to change their views rather than waiting for them to change, but the problem with that is that if he tries to do so when they're not willing to listen, they'll dismiss what he has to say and probably abandon Labour. If he shifts position at the point when they're beginning to have a change of heart anyway he's much more likely to get a fair hearing. I know this is far from ideal, but the trouble is Brexit has become a viscerally emotional issue, so rational arguments about economic damage and the consequent damage to public services are dismissed as scaremongering/sour grapes from "Remoaners" who should just suck it up because they lost/attempts to thwart "the will of the people", etc.. It's infuriating, because they're going to drag the rest of us off the cliff with them, but until they realise they've been had, it's hard to see what Corbyn or anyone else can do.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 17, 2017, 06:01:35 AM
From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html)

Interesting, but it's only one poll. We'll have to wait for further polls over the next few months to see if this one is just an outlier, or if it's indicative of a more substantial trend against leaving than we've seen so far. I hope it's the latter, but the figures would probably have to be about 60-40 on a consistent basis for a period of some months in order for a second referendum to become a serious possibility.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 19, 2017, 10:41:23 AM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 19, 2017, 04:46:49 PM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

What's so damning about that slide is the clarity compared to the fog of contradictory nonsense we're hearing from the UK government - oh yes, and the fact that the slide demonstrates that a deal which isn't much better than CETA is the logical result of other options being closed off by our own government's red lines.

Meanwhile....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/david-davis-to-warn-european-commission-it-cannot-cherrypick-brexit-trade-deal-sectors (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/david-davis-to-warn-european-commission-it-cannot-cherrypick-brexit-trade-deal-sectors)

Yes, that's Davis warning the EU it can't cherry pick. Well, he did say that he doesn't need to be clever to do his job, and this appears to be an attempt to demonstrate that. Even the photo above the article makes it look as though he's thinking "oh shit, did I really just say that?"
 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 20, 2017, 04:34:45 AM
This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

I doubt if the UK is going to get the Swiss deal, which is actually over a 100 bilateral agreements accumulated over many years.

A Swiss type of arrangement will still cross some of the UK government's "red lines". The Swiss, for instance, pay a yearly contribution into EU funds.

Also, following a rejection by referendum by the Swiss people  (those holy pebliscites..... ) of becoming part of the internal market, the EU has been very generous to the Swiss - a bit too generous is the current general feeling.... But that doesn't hurt so much, since the Swiss have a relatively small economy.

Any such generosity towards the Brits would create unfair competition and cause serious distortions of the internal market. It's not going to happen...

The deal with Japan, is according to the EU (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-uk-eu-michel-barnier-canada-japan-south-korea-a8119956.html)the new model it will aim for....
Meanwhile the UK govt has decided, after long and hard deliberations, that it wants a "bespoke deal".... in other words: a deal where you have your cake and eat it. ...  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on December 21, 2017, 04:55:40 AM
I'm afraid that this Brexit thread is going to be pretty boring for some time to come.....

For the so called "transition phase" (phase 2) it is clear that from the side of the EU there is only one offer on the table: a continued membership of the customs union and participation in the internal market untill end of 2020, which is also the end of the current EU budget.

Such an arrangement will effectively delay all economic consequences (well, most...) of Brexit till 2021....
Meanwhile negotiations will be started on a final trade deal.

At present there will be just one bone of contention: Gibraltar
It will, as far as the EU is concerned, not be automatically covered by the transitional agreement.
My guess is that Spain will not be prepared to allow a continuation of Gibraltar's status a tax haven much longer.... Of course it could be decided to go all the way with Gibraltar and turn it into a modern pirate's nest. But in that case Gibraltar would be completely cut off from the EU.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on December 22, 2017, 06:00:34 AM
The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 22, 2017, 08:54:09 AM
The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.

And to think, I accused them of not having a plan. I feel such a fool. :(
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on December 22, 2017, 11:18:19 AM
https://youtu.be/TLpWX3ukQKQ
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on December 24, 2017, 07:15:48 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/YF7E32N.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on December 25, 2017, 11:16:20 AM
Ho ho ho


Sad thing is, of course, it's funny because it's the truth.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 02, 2018, 03:57:49 AM
Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/02/david-davis-says-eu-cannot-cherry-pick-terms-of-free-trade-deal)

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 02, 2018, 07:50:08 AM
Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/02/david-davis-says-eu-cannot-cherry-pick-terms-of-free-trade-deal)

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q

The issue of the Irish border was fudged in the phase 1 talks by means of an agreement to stay in regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union - but the UK government said that this alignment will apply to certain specific areas directly relevant to cross-border trade in Ireland. That implies that there will be a significant number of other areas in which we don't commit to stay in alignment. Sounds rather like cherrypicking to me. So if Davis continues to insist on economic cooperation across the board, the EU will simply say: fine, you want cooperation across the board, stay in regulatory alignment across the board. At which point either the UK refuses, or agrees. If the former, it's a pretty hard Brexit with all the damage that entails. If the latter, the Brexit ultras will explode with rage. These decisions will have to be made in 2018: they can't carry on fudging them, and whichever way May jumps, one wing of her party will be furious.

By the way, you know how the Brexiteers are insisting that Brexit means we have to leave the single market, and that a Norway-type deal would be unacceptable because we'd still effectively be in the EU? Well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=0xGt3QmRSZY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=0xGt3QmRSZY)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 10, 2018, 12:05:39 AM
Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers ‘make no sense’ (https://www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-david-davis-post-brexit-trade-barriers-make-no-sense/)

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay within the internal market...  ::)

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on January 10, 2018, 12:59:00 AM
I enjoyed the 'News Item' at the end of Paddington 2 which stated that Mrs Brown had indeed managed to swim the Channel between Enland and France but had to swim back again as she had forgotten her passport.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on January 10, 2018, 05:48:29 AM
Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers ‘make no sense’ (https://www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-david-davis-post-brexit-trade-barriers-make-no-sense/)

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay witin the internal market...  ::)

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q

Let me put it simply:

I want a divorce, but afterwards I still want to be able to shag you.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 11, 2018, 05:55:59 AM
So amusing !

Quote
Nigel Farage says "just maybe I’m reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum on EU membership"

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 15, 2018, 04:00:33 PM
Boris Johnson has finally admitted that the £350million figure on the bus was bollocks. Well, sort of:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/leave-campaigns-350m-claim-was-too-low-says-boris-johnson (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/leave-campaigns-350m-claim-was-too-low-says-boris-johnson)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 01:07:03 AM
The UK rejection of the "Norway model" while attempting to cherrypick a deal with the EU that is as adventageous, doesn't go down well with Norway....

May faces tougher transition stance from EU amid Norway pressure (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands)

And I expect Norway to pressure the EU to drive a hard deal with the UK in fisheries as well...

So what do we deduce from this?

1. The UK has few friends in negotiating the trade deal with the EU.

2. It is impossible for the EU to give the UK a better deal than other trading partners without blowing up existing trade deals....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on January 16, 2018, 10:35:00 PM
So amusing !

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/)

"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 10:52:04 PM
"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.

The irony of it all is that Britain already has a superb "bespoke deal": outside the euro, outside the Schengen free movement zone, treaty opt-outs on social protection and criminal justice, and last but not least.... a huge budget rebate.

What Brexit does, is to throw that all away and scream murder over not getting anything better...

And now blaming the "tyrannical EU" for a "bad deal" is indeed becoming a self fulfilling prophesy, building up more resentment.
So, I think Marc might be right...if so, it's going to be ugly....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 16, 2018, 11:08:48 PM
Britons in Netherlands take fight for their EU rights to Dutch court (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/16/britons-in-netherlands-take-fight-for-their-eu-rights-to-dutch-court)

I haven't had a close look at the legal arguments yet...

But my legal instincts tell me there might be a good possibility that the EU Court of Justice finds that UK nationals that are permanent residents in the (remainder of the) EU at the moment of Brexit, cannot be stripped of their EU citizenship.

Which makes sense, if one makes comparisons with the way citizenship/nationality issues are dealt with in other (regular) instances of secession.

This will of course will not help EU citizens in the UK or prevent the loss of EU citizenship for all other UK nationals.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 17, 2018, 07:32:23 AM
For what it's worth, polls since the referendum have shown a small degree of movement towards Remain. Nothing major, but they suggest that Remain would win by a narrow margin if there were to be another referendum now.

The problem is that such a result is far from guaranteed, and a narrow Remain win wouldn't put the issue to bed, no more than a narrow Leave win has. And obviously if Leave won again, even if only narrowly, that would be it and we'd be really screwed. That said, if a second referendum does happen, it's highly unlikely to be a re-run of June 2016, i.e. choosing between leave or remain. It would probably be a choice between accepting whatever deal May gets - including no deal if that should happen - or rejecting that deal and staying in. At that point we would know the terms of exit, and there should then be a clear and obvious gulf between the deal we actually get, and the have our cake and eat it deal the Brexiteers assured us we'd get. That disconnect between the Brexiteers' rhetoric and what we get in reality is what will produce a Remain win, assuming anything can. There's no point in trying to change the minds of die-hard Brexiteer believers, but the less fanatical Leave voters who genuinely thought we'd get the sort of deal they were promised might be willing to reconsider.

Of course it's also possible that there are enough people of the "Brexit at any cost" persuasion to win another vote, in which case it's full steam ahead for Shit Creek. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 20, 2018, 02:44:55 AM
So, Boris Johnson wants a bridge over the channel....
Do you think cars will be driving on the the left or right hand side of the road ?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on January 29, 2018, 03:31:22 PM
The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 30, 2018, 11:54:02 AM
The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)

According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious.... 8)

Quote
The leaked figures showing Britain would be worse off under all Brexit scenarios than it would have been had it stayed in the EU were just a work in progress. The numbers had been cobbled together by a bunch of untrustworthy idiots in his own department and he had personally sent them all back to their spreadsheets with strict instructions not to emerge until they came up with a scenario in which Brexit was going to be a huge success.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on January 30, 2018, 02:41:33 PM
Quote
Mr Barnier noted that the EU has signed some  70 international trade access agreements with third countries, all of which will have to be asked to accept UK access to their markets on EU terms during the transition.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/uk-to-be-denied-eu-decision-making-role-during-brexit-transition-1.3372792

Oops.....
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on January 31, 2018, 05:40:04 PM
According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious.... 8)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q

They're going to release the analysis after all:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers)

So to recap, the government's position on its impact assessments has gone as follows:

1. The assessments have been done and go into "excruciating detail".
2. Er.....no they don't. In fact they don't even exist.
3. No, as you were - it turns out we have done some sort of assessment after all! But we can't release it.
4. OK, we'll release it. But don't take any notice of the bit that says Brexit will be economically damaging, because economic forecasts are always wrong.
5. Unless they say Brexit will be great. You can trust those. Obviously. And if you don't, you're a saboteur remoaner talking the country down.

The EU must be pissing itself laughing.

This bit says it all:

Quote
The climbdown came as Downing Street said Phillip Lee, a junior justice minister, had been reprimanded for tweeting that if such studies showed the economy would be harmed then a change in policy should follow.

No such action has been taken against the Brexit minister Steve Baker, who said economic forecasts by government officials were “always wrong”.


In tweets sent on Tuesday, a Downing Street source said: “Phillip Lee will recognise that the analysis was initial and probably not worth commenting on. He has been spoken to by the chief whip and reminded that it is best to air his view in private.”

Asked whether the lack of action against Baker meant the minister’s view was official government policy, the source said: “I will stick with what Steve Baker said.”

It's beyond parody now.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 06, 2018, 11:15:45 PM
There seems to be a clear breach of trust between the EU and the UK govt.....

Brexit: EU to have power to punish UK at will during transition

Brussels could impose sanctions if it believes law infringed
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/brexit-eu-power-punish-uk-transition-period-sanctions)

Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making, I cannot blame the EU for making contingency plans.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 07, 2018, 10:56:37 AM
British group wins right to take Brexit case to European court (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/07/british-group-wins-right-to-take-brexit-case-to-european-court)

I'm proud to see that the Dutch judiciary is still a beacon of light in a world that grows darker and darker by the day.....


“The essence of a democratic constitutional state is that the rights and interests of minorities are protected as much as possible”

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on February 07, 2018, 03:00:19 PM
Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making

No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules!  :laugh: >:D :P

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 07, 2018, 11:12:22 PM
No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules!  :laugh: >:D :P

Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on February 09, 2018, 02:29:06 AM
Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q
Agreed, and Que is absolutely right in monitoring this disaster closely.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on February 09, 2018, 04:27:09 AM
Actual blood will probably not flow...  :D

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...


I don't deny the possibility.

Sooner or later it probably happens to every country. Empires much more powerful and self-confident than the current UK have disappeared without trace.

Sic transit gloria mundi!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on February 09, 2018, 11:08:56 AM
"Bringing you live scenes from the UK’s Brexit strategy"

https://twitter.com/Queen_Europe/status/961883716321619968



( ... well, at one level at least, this one is quite funny  :) )
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 10, 2018, 01:24:45 PM
Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86767)

Q

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 10, 2018, 05:23:20 PM
Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86767)

Q

Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

Meanwhile we have a government paralysed by the ideological faultline in the Tory party, with the Brexit ultras and the hard right Tory press filling the resulting vacuum with bellicose rhetoric about "standing up to EU bullies" - that's the same "bullies" who we were assured would be falling over themselves to give us a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal because "they need us more than we need them". As that's not happening it's obviously because they're intransigent bullies who want to punish us. Tomorrow's Telegraph has a story trying to sow division in the EU by claiming some states think Barnier is being too aggressive with Britain, which would seem to be a transparent attempt to set Barnier up as the bogeyman who will be blamed by the Brexiteers when we don't get the sort of deal they told us we'd get.

And that seems to be all the Brexiteers have left now. The day after the referendum it turned out that they had no Brexit plan whatsoever even though many of them had been arguing for the UK to leave the EU for years, which suggests many of them never thought they'd win and actually have to go through with it. The priority now seems to be to get the excuses in first so that whatever else happens, when the shit hits the fan, someone else gets the blame. The list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Unfortunately, if the likes of Question Time are any guide, there are still a lot of Leave voters who - so far at least - are willing to swallow the rhetoric blaming everyone else, especially "Brussels bullies", for Brexit turning into a farce. Presumably because it's much more comforting to blame someone else rather than admit that supporting something which looks as though it's going to be a train wreck might not have been such a good idea after all.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 11, 2018, 01:10:46 AM
Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

However, the UK will not be given a say in EU decision making after it leaves. The concession will likely to be on free movement/immigration .

An immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

Quote
The list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Soon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 11, 2018, 05:28:25 PM
I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

I'm sure May will use up every last millimetre of that road but it's still going to run out, and soon. Then she'll have to decide which way to jump. She'll probably choose the "off the cliff" option.

Quote
An immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

When you look at the influence the likes of Rees Mogg and the European Research Group now wield, a hard Brexit does indeed look a very distinct possibility. I saw a recent comment online which said that Brexit may be disaster capitalism on a grand scale, as the chaos of falling off a cliff edge would create some lucrative opportunities for those bankrolling it. It's certainly plausible.

Quote
Soon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q

Indeed, I'm sure the list will get longer before too long. Not to worry though, apparently Boris Johnson will be giving a speech designed to appeal to remainers and unite the country, so there's that to look forward to. Stop laughing.

What is truly extraordinary is that crunch time is fast approaching and yet nothing has changed: Peter Bone, one of the most fanatical supporters of a hard Brexit, was interviewed just a few days ago and stated that of course the Irish government won't put up a hard border. And if they do, that's down to them. As if a hard border wasn't a direct consequence of a hard Brexit. I don't know if he's aware of that but is saying otherwise so he can carry on blaming Ireland and the EU should a hard border return, or if he genuinely believes what he's saying, in which case he has no idea what he's talking about. Either way, they're still spouting this crap now, just as they have been since the referendum. Similarly, leave voters on Question Time are still offering the same old pearls of wisdom: "we're a big economy so of course the EU will want to trade with us, we'll be fine", "just have some faith", etc.. This sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/951589776448262144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fquestion-time-this-week.362105%2Fpage-62 (https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/951589776448262144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fquestion-time-this-week.362105%2Fpage-62) 
 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 17, 2018, 02:17:07 AM
Layoffs Arrive in Brexit Britain, and Auto Workers Are Up First (Bloomberg) (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/layoffs-arrive-in-brexit-britain-and-auto-workers-are-up-first)

Not to worry, it's all just scaremongering..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 17, 2018, 02:23:14 AM
The security issue will be interesting.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 17, 2018, 02:41:25 AM
The security issue will be interesting.

Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on February 17, 2018, 03:17:41 AM
Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q

Let's hope so!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on February 17, 2018, 06:00:55 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

‘Ideal’ UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 17, 2018, 06:14:30 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

‘Ideal’ UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)

Er....remoaning saboteurs......talking down the country......believe in Britain, etc.. This is clearly just more Project Fear.....

Quote
It also advocates tearing up the EU’s “precautionary principle”, under which traders have to prove something is safe before it is sold, rather than waiting for it to be proved unsafe.

....or maybe not. Jesus. Presumably the precautionary principle is an example of that "burdensome EU red tape which is holding us back".

This has only come out because it was accidentally published online. So letting leave voters know what Brexit really means clearly isn't on the agenda. Not until it's too late anyway. Still, er........taking back control!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on February 17, 2018, 06:22:09 AM
The document was « not meant for public consumption ». Unpalatable indeed...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 19, 2018, 05:02:49 PM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

‘Ideal’ UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks          (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks)

Another jaw-dropper: it seems the Brexit ultras are finally beginning to realise that the Good Friday Agreement/Irish border issue is likely to prove an insurmountable obstacle to their beloved hard Brexit. Good news, right? Well, unfortunately not. We can tell that the penny has begun to drop because some of the hardliners are beginning to talk down the GFA: Hannan says it has failed, Paterson has supported a column arguing that it has run its course, and Hoey is at it as well.

So, having realised that this issue throws an almighty spanner in the works of a hard Brexit, their response is to shrug their shoulders and dismiss the GFA. These people really are prepared to pay any price for a hard Brexit (though they won't be the ones paying) - including the trashing of the GFA with all the dangers that go with that. Incredible. I was about to say they can't sink any lower than this, but every time I think that, they prove me wrong. What an absolute shitshow this is.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 20, 2018, 02:43:47 PM
So, you vote to leave the EU to get rid of all these EU immigrants...

And before you know it, you need non-EU immigrants to replace them:


Leading Brexiter admits supply of labour from EU27 falling so ‘we’ll need to look further afield’ (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/20/farmers-tell-gove-lack-of-migrant-workers-now-mission-critical)


Well, that's just freaking hilarious.....  :D

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on February 20, 2018, 03:57:45 PM
So, you vote to leave the EU to get rid of all these EU immigrants...

And before you know it, you need non-EU immigrants to replace them:


Leading Brexiter admits supply of labour from EU27 falling so ‘we’ll need to look further afield’ (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/20/farmers-tell-gove-lack-of-migrant-workers-now-mission-critical)


Well, that's just freaking hilarious.....  :D


Q


Even that will be spun as somehow the EU's fault.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on February 20, 2018, 06:56:56 PM
Easy solution.

The UK will take in all the immigrants Trump wants to keep out. Perhaps a special program for all the Dreamers he'll deport.
The US meantime will take in the EU immigrants, since they're from Norway and similar countries.

Win win for everyone.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Turner on February 28, 2018, 06:25:07 AM
"Sir John Major calls on Theresa May to give all MPs and ministers a free vote in the Commons on her final Brexit deal. From a former Tory PM, that's a huge challenge to her authority."

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/968850126004477953
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on February 28, 2018, 11:57:41 PM
Brexit: 10 observations on the draft withdrawal agreement

The devils will emerge from the detail of the EU’s document

David Allen Green (Financial Times)

The European Commission’s draft withdrawal agreement for Brexit was published a few hours ago. The intended deal will address only the arrangements for withdrawal, including transition. The future trade, security and other relationships between the EU and the UK will be the subject of other intended agreements. It is too soon for anyone to have digested all the detail of the document, and indeed it may be weeks before some of the implications of the provisions become clear. That is the nature of complex legal instruments. But, at this stage, there are some observations to be made about the draft itself and how it may affect the wider process of the intended departure of Britain from the EU.

The first thing to say is that it is a welcome development that there is a draft in existence. We are almost one year on from the Article 50 notification and nearly two years on from the referendum. Much of the discussion on Brexit has been in general, even strident terms. Now there is something more substantial to focus on, and to argue about.

This leads to the second point. This draft has been produced by the EU, not Britain. As the UK is the departing member state one would have expected that the onus would be on the UK to produce the document. This, however, it may never have done. The EU has in effect stepped in and pushed the process forward. What the EU's fallback Brexit plan means for Northern Ireland Play video

So to the third thing: those Brexit supporters who object to the contents of this draft should ask why the UK did not bother to prepare its own version. In both diplomatic and commercial negotiations, the party that produces the first draft invariably starts with and keeps the advantage until the deal is done. For Britain not to have provided its own document is nearly as negligent as sending the Article 50 notification without preparation in the first place. Imagine if the UK had prepared its own draft withdrawal agreement before sending the notification.

The fourth point is that it is still a draft. It is only February and the agreement needs to be in final form by October so it can be approved and ratified in good time for the intended departure date of 29 March 2019. There will be devils in the detail and those devils will emerge. Small things and even large parts will need to be revised and amended. If the UK does not like bits of it, or if provisions can be improved, then there is sufficient time.

But the fifth thing is that this is not a draft out of nowhere. Most of it is merely the translation into formal legal prose of December’s joint report. That key document, in turn, followed an array of published position papers and negotiation documents. There is a certain neatness in how the draft ties together the strands. It is almost as if the EU knew what it was doing and working towards all along.

Which leads to the sixth point: for all the political noise that met the publication of the draft on Wednesday, the EU can plausibly point back to the December report and so on and say that there is nothing new. It would seem that the intention of Brussels is for the draft not to contain any surprises. If anyone is shocked and outraged, that is no doubt because they have not being paying attention. The draft shows how well the EU has done with the withdrawal issues, other than Ireland. On first reading there is little here to which the EU had not gained assent by December. On citizenship and the financial settlement there is already apparent consensus on almost every point: this just records that.

Turning to the new document itself, the seventh observation is that it is clear and well drafted. There is a Euclidean-like geometry to the parts, titles and chapters which enables the reader to see how these inter-relate. There are detailed notes and references. On first reading, few passages seemed obscure. If there is disagreement, then at least one will be able to see what the dispute is about. The draft is far more a legal document than a diplomatic one.

The eighth point is to note how the Irish border issue has been addressed. The proposals are set out in a schedule as a “protocol”. As with the December joint report, the provisions are there as a default backstop until and unless there is a more detailed agreement on the points. The EU is still open to the UK making its own positive proposals. In this draft, Brussels is in effect saying it has done its part. The simple logic of the Irish border after Brexit Key points from Brussels’ text on Brexit treaty

The penultimate thing is that this is intended to be an agreement with bite. There are real and effective means of governance and enforcement, including a rather robust provision for “suspension of [the UK’s] benefits”. The document is not aspirational: once executed it is intended practically to bind the UK. This means Britain cannot agree to the provisions of the agreement without intending to fulfil them. That will concentrate minds wonderfully.

Finally, this draft agreement perhaps makes Brexit more certain than before. Of course, the law is one thing and politics is another. The unstable domestic politics and weak and incompetent British government make any accurate forecasts impossible. Nobody knows for certain what will happen with Brexit. But the EU shows little interest in extending the Article 50 period or encouraging the UK to revoke the notification. So unless the UK somehow fundamentally shifts its position on Brexit, or refuses to sign the withdrawal agreement before March 2019, the agreement will be a further illustration of “Brexit by timetable”. And, all other things being equal, the UK will leave the EU on terms prescribed by the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 01, 2018, 01:17:35 AM

The US meantime will take in the EU immigrants, since they're from Norway and similar countries.

Holy crap. Do we look stupid?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 01, 2018, 10:36:45 AM
Holy crap. Do we look stupid?

Another reason Norwegians are the worst

They’re already the happiest people in the world. Now they’re taking home all the medals too.
 (https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-olympics-another-reason-scandinavians-are-the-worst-winter-olympics-south-korea-sport/)

 :D   :D

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 01, 2018, 05:32:57 PM
May has rejected the texts proposed by the EU and is expected to anounce further concrete insights on the UK's wishes:

Mrs May is expected to set out five tests to guide the UK in negotiations:

That any deal must respect the referendum result.
That any deal must not break down.
That any deal must protect jobs and security.
That any deal must be "consistent with the kind of country we want to be" - modern, outward-looking and tolerant.
That any agreement must bring the country together


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43250035

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 02, 2018, 12:29:26 AM

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q

On second thought.... a "soft" Brexit would meet four out of the five tests developed by May.... ::)

Except for bringing the country together.... though I doubt a majority of the population would oppose a soft Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 02, 2018, 11:03:20 AM
May has rejected the texts proposed by the EU and is expected to anounce further concrete insights on the UK's wishes:

Mrs May is expected to set out five tests to guide the UK in negotiations:

That any deal must respect the referendum result.
That any deal must not break down.
That any deal must protect jobs and security.
That any deal must be "consistent with the kind of country we want to be" - modern, outward-looking and tolerant.
That any agreement must bring the country together


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43250035

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q

That's very unfair. May has explained that we want a good deal that does nice and fluffy things, and not a bad deal that does mean and nasty things. You can't get much clearer than that.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 03, 2018, 07:12:26 AM
Brexit is a gift that keeps on giving...... :D

Therese May stated that she wants the "broadest and deepest possible partnership" between the UK and EU.

Newsflash: such an arrangement does indeed exist, it is called membership of the European Union....

And as a "cherry on cake" - so to speak  ;) - she announced the desire for the continued (associative) membership of several EU agencies...
Like on medicine (EMA, that is moving from London to Amsterdam) chemicals and aviation. I suspect the same will apply to Euratom and that the list will grow much longer. The UK earlier expressed the desire to stay in Europol, for instance.

Q



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 03, 2018, 04:34:18 PM
Another epistle from the 18th century:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border)

Apparently it's Michel Barnier showing disregard for the Good Friday Agreement. Not the Brexiters. Definitely not. Oh no.

It's worth giving an example of what is often referred to as Rees Mogg's authenticity:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html)

Quote
Between 2011 and 2016, according to the TheyWorkForYou website, Mr Rees-Mogg voted 14 times against measures that would have given higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability.

In February 2012, for example, he voted against allowing cancer patients to be excused from the 365-day limit on receiving contributions-based Employment and Support Allowance.

What a guy. He would seem to be an authentic bastard, which to be fair is authenticity of a sort.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 04, 2018, 01:29:48 AM
Another epistle from the 18th century:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border)

Apparently it's Michel Barnier showing disregard for the Good Friday Agreement. Not the Brexiters. Definitely not. Oh no.

It's worth giving an example of what is often referred to as Rees Mogg's authenticity:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html)

What a guy. He would seem to be an authentic bastard, which to be fair is authenticity of a sort.

He decribes the future in 19th century political idiom: the UK as a future "vassal state" (after a soft Brexit) and Northern Ireland as a EU "protectorate".... Quite a grim picture!  :)

If he would come to power the reactionary revolution would go into the next phase.

Last Wednesday, a survey of Tory party members by the ConservativeHome website showed that Mr Rees-Mogg was now their second most popular choice to succeed Ms May as leader, after Brexit Secretary David Davis.

The Tories's taste in leadership is rather disconcerting..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 04, 2018, 02:08:59 PM
He decribes the future in 19th century political idiom: the UK as a future "vassal state" (after a soft Brexit) and Northern Ireland as a EU "protectorate".... Quite a grim picture!  :)

If he would come to power the reactionary revolution would go into the next phase.

Last Wednesday, a survey of Tory party members by the ConservativeHome website showed that Mr Rees-Mogg was now their second most popular choice to succeed Ms May as leader, after Brexit Secretary David Davis.

The Tories's taste in leadership is rather disconcerting..... ::)

Q

Unfortunately there are quite a few people in the UK who fall for this nonsense. If you can bear to do it, take a look at the comments on youtube under a Rees Mogg video - the ones posted by his witless fanboys with titles like "Rees Mogg absolutely DESTROYS x,y,z...". You'll see a graphic illustration of the extraordinary level of utter shite a British politician can get away with as long as he has a plummy accent and drops in the odd bit of Latin here and there. That's all it takes to convince these morons that Rees Mogg is a political colossus with a towering intellect.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 04, 2018, 10:46:53 PM
An example of "cakeism":

May defends stance on post-Brexit financial services rules (https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may/may-defends-stance-on-post-brexit-financial-services-rules-idUKKBN1GG0HC)

May rejects the continuation of the current system of "passporting rights" - free access to the internal market through regulatory alignment - for the financial sector,  because she doesn't want the UK to be a "rule taker.

Fine, but then she still wants free access to the internal market  for the British financial sector....
So, the EU would have to allow British financial companies to compete freely on the EU market, while they don't have to abide by the same rules? ??? Does she think the EU is nuts? ::)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 05, 2018, 06:35:26 AM
So, the EU would have to allow British financial companies to compete freely on the EU market, while they don't have to abide by the same rules? ??? Does she think the EU is nuts? ::)

Q

Remember, "they need us more than we need them".

Quote
“If we were to accept‘passporting’ we’d just be a rule taker, we’d have to abide by the rules that were being set elsewhere,” May said in the interview with the BBC.

If only there were a way to retain passporting rights while also having a say in the rules.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 05, 2018, 11:00:06 AM
Remember, "they need us more than we need them".

I think she's signing the death sentence of the London City. The UK has missed the opportunity to turn into an off shore tax and money laundering paradise by several years....considering the current global climb down on those practices. The UK would be a pariah in the international financial community.

Quote
If only there were a way to retain passporting rights while also having a say in the rules.

Indeed, just imagine....  ;)

Throwing away the position of a global financial hotpot, it's sheer madness....  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 05, 2018, 04:11:37 PM
I think she's signing the death sentence of the London City. The UK has missed the opportunity to turn into an off shore tax and money laundering paradise by several years....considering the current global climb down on those practices. The UK would be a pariah in the international financial community.

As long as the Brexit ultras get their hard Brexit they're not bothered. They'll try to sell it as "global buccaneering Britain", though admittedly that might not work out too well once reality bites. Screeching headlines in the pro-Brexit rags won't do them much good when it turns out that gutting the NHS and welfare state as we know them is the price of the UK becoming Tax Haven-on-Thames. Though such is the utter venality of these people that as long as they've made a killing out of it, they probably won't care. Leave another party to try clearing up the mess and then accuse them of "betraying the will of the people".

Quote
Indeed, just imagine....  ;)

Throwing away the position of a global financial hotpot, it's sheer madness....  ???

Q

From the point of view of the good of the country, yes. But in fairness, how can they turn us into a tax haven if we're still in the EU when the EU's new tax evasion rules come into effect?  As (bad) luck would have it, we'll just have left by then. I've also seen suggestions that there are prominent Brexiteers with connections to hedge funds that aren't all that keen on EU scrutiny, which they view as another urgent reason for getting us out just in time. Not sure if that's true, but to say that it's plausible would be an understatement.

It's not all bad news though, there's been a breakthrough on the Irish border issue!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/05/post-brexit-irish-border-could-be-like-us-canada-says-may (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/05/post-brexit-irish-border-could-be-like-us-canada-says-may)

Quote
Leo Varadkar told reporters on Monday evening that it was out of the question.
“I visited the Canada/US border back in August and saw physical infrastructure with customs posts, people in uniforms with arms and dogs and that is definitely not a solution that we could possibly entertain,” he said.

This must be an example of the "creative thinking" Theresa May is always talking about. Applying the US-Canada border model to the Irish border. What a stroke of genius. What could possibly go wrong?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on March 05, 2018, 07:11:59 PM
The US/Canada border is as hard as they get, believe me. It’s easier to detect a smile on a boulder than on a US customs agent.

Zero $ exemption for goods brought in on same day crossing and very low $ exemption for overnight stays. Zero tolerance for ignoring the law or for white lies: you’re flagged for life.

There’s even a tv show about border crossings (both ways) and the trouble people get into when trying to bring in something on the other side. Add to that the hours of waiting time when reentering the country after a long weekend...

Have a good time sorting out your border issues !  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 05, 2018, 10:22:42 PM
Another example of a "soft border" I have seen mentioned, is the border between Norway (non-EU) and Sweden (EU).

But then again, EFTA-member Norway is part of the European internal market and local conditions in terms of volume of trading movements might be different...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 06, 2018, 05:06:55 AM
Another example of a "soft border" I have seen mentioned, is the border between Norway (non-EU) and Sweden (EU).

But then again, EFTA-member Norway is part of the European internal market and local conditions in terms of volume of trading movements might be different...

Q

I've seen that mentioned as well, but if I remember rightly the article I read about it said that there are still some checks at that border. Even then, as you say, Norway is part of the single market (though not, I believe, the customs union).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: nodogen on March 06, 2018, 07:18:06 AM
Here's another one of those annoying intellectual boffin types trying to stop The Will of The People:

"Brain prize winner calls Brexit a 'disaster' for the NHS and science"

- https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/mar/06/brain-prize-winner-calls-brexit-a-disaster-for-the-nhs-and-science        (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/mar/06/brain-prize-winner-calls-brexit-a-disaster-for-the-nhs-and-science)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 06, 2018, 11:14:36 PM
A must-read on sentiments on Brexit and the UK in the rest of the EU, and what drives their strategy: a lack of trust and self preservation.

Britain is still clueless about the EU’s motives in Brexit negotiations (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/06/britain-eu-motives-brexit)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 06, 2018, 11:55:02 PM
I've seen that mentioned as well, but if I remember rightly the article I read about it said that there are still some checks at that border. Even then, as you say, Norway is part of the single market (though not, I believe, the customs union).
We're within Schengen. And not the customs union (which mean I can receive small CD packages VAT free from the EU).

If the UK want to remain within Schengen they must accept free flow of labor. If not, there will be full border controls (like when I entered Hungary from Roumania this summer). Something to look forward to for alle Brits. ;)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on March 07, 2018, 12:28:09 AM
(which mean I can receive small CD packages VAT free from the EU).
HAH! Finally a comprehensible motive for Brexit!  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 07, 2018, 12:37:09 AM
HAH! Finally a comprehensible motive for Brexit!  :D
Yes, but only as long as they are so small that they cannot be bothered to handle them (about GB 30). Above that, they are slammed with full Norwegian VAT + fees for the processing.

In fact I wouldn't mind paying VAT, it's the fees that are killer......
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 10, 2018, 12:39:37 AM
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ffb99deae-2302-11e8-ae48-60d3531b7d11?source=next&fit=scale-down&width=900)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 10, 2018, 12:49:14 AM
Regional shares of local GDP exposed to Brexit:

(http://binarystore.wiley.com/store/10.1111/pirs.12334/asset/image_n/pirs12334-fig-0002.png?v=1&t=jel4f3cm&s=03c1ad3eb5c6f0b2826e305ee13b98066ba907a3)

Research by the Dutch Erasmus University Rotterdam: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pirs.12334/full

Q

PS It seems that the Irish have every right to be extremely angry with their neighbours.....  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 10, 2018, 06:19:48 PM
Regional shares of local GDP exposed to Brexit:

(http://binarystore.wiley.com/store/10.1111/pirs.12334/asset/image_n/pirs12334-fig-0002.png?v=1&t=jel4f3cm&s=03c1ad3eb5c6f0b2826e305ee13b98066ba907a3)

Research by the Dutch Erasmus University Rotterdam: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pirs.12334/full

Q

PS It seems that the Irish have every right to be extremely angry with their neighbours.....  ::)

The fact that the Brexiters appear to have given no thought prior to (and precious little since) the referendum to finding a workable solution to the Irish border problem is enough on its own to justify Irish anger with the UK. It smacks of complacency, arrogance and ignorance in equal measure. Dismissing the issue by claiming that it can all be sorted out with technological solutions that don't appear to even exist isn't going to cut it. And if they want their precious hard Brexit to happen they'll have to find a workable solution, because without one that satisfies both Ireland and the EU a hard Brexit won't be happening.

It's particularly disgusting to hear them accuse the EU of using the Irish border as an excuse for thwarting Brexit. A more accurate statement would be that they're embarrassed that Ireland and the EU asking for a solution (to a problem created by the UK) is drawing attention to their contemptuous lack of thought about an immensely serious issue.

Also somewhat ironic is hearing hardline Brexiters state that the Irish border issue should not be allowed to thwart the will of the people as expressed in a referendum. That does rather overlook the fact that the Good Friday Agreement was implemented after joint referendums held in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic which both resulted in massive majorities in favour of the agreement - about 71% in favour in the north and 94% in the south if I remember rightly (not much doubt about "the will of the people" there, unlike the near 50-50 split of the Brexit referendum). But a hard Brexit means a hard border, and a hard border would be a clear violation of the GFA - and thus a clear violation of the will of the people of the island of Ireland on both sides of the border. So those Brexiteers saying that we should have a hard Brexit to honour the referendum even if that means a hard border need to answer the question: why should the Brexit vote be allowed to trample all over the results of not just one, but two referendums? I'm not holding my breath for them to find an answer to that one. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on March 10, 2018, 08:31:15 PM
I think the Brexiteers are guided by a simple assumption of very doubtful validity: that the EU and Ireland need the UK more than the UK needs them.

Tangential question: who exactly is qualified to vote in the UK (citizenship, I assume, but what else?), and what is involved in the process of registering and then casting a vote (for instance, what sort of ID)?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 11, 2018, 02:40:28 AM
When "going it alone" means you're going to be eaten by a larger animal.....  ::)

Self-styled Mr Brexit takes aim at the UK (http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/self-styled-mr-brexit-takes-aim-at-the-uk-1-5428611)


The ‘open skies’ row shows how Trump will exploit Brexit at Britain’s cost

As things stand, Britain is set to leave the EU-US ‘Open skies treaty’ when it leaves the EU. In order to ensure planes can still fly, Britain will need to negotiate a replacement agreement with the US.

However, according to an explosive FT report this week, the US offered Britain in January a far worse “open skies” deal after Brexit than it currently has as an EU member. According to their report, accepting such a deal could seriously damage the flying rights of major UK airlines and – in the event of failure – see flights grounded between the two countries. (https://www.businessinsider.nl/open-skies-us-trade-deal-brexit-trump-2018-3/)

It does however give an entire new meaning to the "Special Relationship"....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on March 11, 2018, 03:55:08 AM
I think the Brexiteers are guided by a simple assumption of very doubtful validity: that the EU and Ireland need the UK more than the UK needs them.

Tangential question: who exactly is qualified to vote in the UK (citizenship, I assume, but what else?), and what is involved in the process of registering and then casting a vote (for instance, what sort of ID)?

You need to be registered on the Electoral Roll (Register) and usually this happens by filling in a form delivered to every household or by registering online.

In Northern Ireland, England and Wales you can register aged 17 but only vote when 18.

In Scotland you can register when you are 14 and can vote in Scottish parliament elections and local elections when you're 16. At 18 you can currently vote in UK and European parliament elections.

Before the day of the vote you receive a card through the post. It contains the address of your voting station. You go there and either hand over the card to the staff or simply give them your name and address. Note that you aren't required to bring the card or any ID, but this is due to change in 2019 or 2020.

That's all I know.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 11, 2018, 05:34:48 AM
Brexit: why Britain’s hopes for a special financial services deal are set to be dashed (https://theconversation.com/brexit-why-britains-hopes-for-a-special-financial-services-deal-are-set-to-be-dashed-93018)


Hammond is trying to pick the biggest cherry of them all for the "Jewel in the Crown" of the UK economy: the financial services sector.

Unless the UK by some miraculous political turn of events stays part of the internal market, this plan is not going to fly....

To save what it can of the position of the City, the only option for the UK would be the "Singapore model".
Which, as pointed out in the article would set the UK on a collision course with the EU and would likely sever all economic ties.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: kishnevi on March 11, 2018, 07:11:43 AM
You need to be registered on the Electoral Roll (Register) and usually this happens by filling in a form delivered to every household or by registering online.

In Northern Ireland, England and Wales you can register aged 17 but only vote when 18.

In Scotland you can register when you are 14 and can vote in Scottish parliament elections and local elections when you're 16. At 18 you can currently vote in UK and European parliament elections.

Before the day of the vote you receive a card through the post. It contains the address of your voting station. You go there and either hand over the card to the staff or simply give them your name and address. Note that you aren't required to bring the card or any ID, but this is due to change in 2019 or 2020.

That's all I know.
Thanks.  Your system would give an American conservative a case of the tantrums.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on March 11, 2018, 07:27:36 AM
Thanks.  Your system would give an American conservative a case of the tantrums.

You're welcome. And yeah, the whole process seems free and easy and kind of quaint.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on March 11, 2018, 07:41:32 AM
Thanks.  Your system would give an American conservative a case of the tantrums.
More or less similar to Norway, except that you are automatically registered when you are on the national scrolls (as all are required to be), and that you need to bring some ID. Bring your voters card which is sent to your registered adress some weeks in advance, and bring some ID. Though you can still vote without your card, but then the vote is handled somewhat differently when counted.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: North Star on March 11, 2018, 09:52:42 AM
More or less similar to Norway, except that you are automatically registered when you are on the national scrolls (as all are required to be), and that you need to bring some ID. Bring your voters card which is sent to your registered adress some weeks in advance, and bring some ID. Though you can still vote without your card, but then the vote is handled somewhat differently when counted.
Sounds about the same as here. And the government will pay for your ID if you can't afford it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on March 11, 2018, 12:58:35 PM
Interesting debate going on about Vince Cable's Brexit comments:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/news/93511/vince-cable-says-some-brexit-voters-nostalgic

http://www.cityam.com/282032/vince-cable-slammed-white-faces-brexit-slur
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 19, 2018, 05:41:15 PM
Our strong and stable prime minister has secured another Brexit victory with the transition deal, cunningly outfoxing the EU by giving them pretty much everything they were asking for. Johnny Foreigner never saw that coming! Well actually they probably did.

So, having agreed a back stop solution to the Irish border issue in December, then saying we didn't agree to it after all, we're now fully committed to it. Again. At least for now, unless Arlene says otherwise. Which she might. Though we still don't like the wording because:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/uk-and-eu-agree-terms-for-brexit-transition-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/uk-and-eu-agree-terms-for-brexit-transition-deal)

Quote
Downing Street wants inclusion in the text of its promise to avoid the need for border checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, something Brussels says is a strictly domestic issue.

Bloody EU, not interfering in our affairs....


It seems increasingly clear that where Brexit is concerned, all roads lead to the Irish border. The UK government has suggested two "solutions" which would allow the hard Brexiteers to get their way without trashing the Good Friday Agreement: the first is if some magical technological solution for an open border is found, of which there is precious little sign so far. It would appear that no such border currently exists anywhere in the world, so if such a solution is to be found, it will have to be something which doesn't yet exist. Even then, it will have to be sufficiently convincing to satisfy both the EU and the Irish government that it's worth allowing the Irish border to be used as a guinea pig to see if it works.

The other option for keeping an open border is, according to the UK government, getting a trade deal with the EU which is so good that it avoids the need for border checks. How this is to be achieved while sticking to the government's red lines of leaving the single market and customs union has yet to be explained in detail. Or indeed explained at all.

If we don't get a magical new technological solution or the aforementioned have-our-cake-and-eat-it trade deal, it will presumably come down to a choice between two options:

1. The back stop option for the Irish border kicks in, in which case the whole UK stays in/remains extremely closely aligned with the customs union and single market to keep the border open - i.e. the softest possible Brexit (allowing just Northern Ireland to stay in the CU/SM is of course not an option because of Arlene & co.). Hardcore Leave voters, the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and the Tory press explode with rage. Such a deal would almost certainly not get through the Commons.

2. May caves in to the ultras and we get a hard border, a hard Brexit and the smoking ruins of the GFA. Hardcore Leave voters, the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and the Tory press are ecstatic, while everyone else explodes with rage. As with option 1, it's virtually inconceivable that such a deal would get through the Commons.

As much as I want this repulsive shower of bastards out of office, if it does come down to one of these two options it's probably better if they're the ones who have to tell the public what those options are. Let them own this fiasco.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 19, 2018, 11:36:01 PM
The UK govt backed down and both parties fell back on the terms agreed in december, which according to Davies were ""only guidelines".

I think this is the first step towards BINO ("Brexit in name only"), in which Britain stays within the customs union and the internal market. Simply because it's economic suicide to anything otherwise.... A bonus is that BINO also resolves the Irish issue.

However, with the transition deal alone does not mean all dangers are successfully avoided (for now):

1. By not longer being a member of the Union, the UK will no longer be a party to treaties concluded between the EU with other countries. A good illustration is the "Open Skies Agreement" on avation between the US and the EU.

This will become a MAJOR problem, and it it will hurt the UK economy immediately.....

2. The issue of Gibraltar is still outstanding. Without an bilateral agreement between the UK and Spain, Gibraltar might be excluded from the transition deal and effectively "cut off" from the internal market. To me it seems clear what the Spanish conditions are: joint control of the airport, which lies partly on territory disputed by Spain, and the end of Gibraltar as a tax evasion haven.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on March 20, 2018, 09:12:24 AM
You are way ahead of time Que.  Several member states do not accept the terms of the transitional agreement.

For them Barnier is a softee.

Their identity hasnt been disclosed yet, but you can make guesses...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 24, 2018, 02:14:55 AM
The funny side of Brexit....  :D

Brexit: Leavers in uproar over 'national humiliation' as blue passports contract 'handed to Franco-Dutch firm (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-blue-british-passports-contract-gemalto-national-humiliation-eu-exit-france-a8267761.html)

Anyway, it seems we're close to a transition deal.

Though whether it will ultimate apply to Gibraltar, remains to be seen......
I think the Spanish will drive a hard bargain. I've looked into to the territorial dispute - it appears that the land on which the airport has been built was taken into possession by the British during the Spanish civil war and is not covered by the treaty of Utrecht. Clever powerplay back in the day, but that doesn't make it legal....

As a military superpower Britain got away with it, but now the balance of power has shifted the British will be forced to make concessions.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 25, 2018, 12:32:12 AM
Informative:

Brexit transition: three misunderstandings about the deal explained:

1.Transition isn’t membership

2.Transition doesn’t solve problems of a cliff edge

3.Transition not a model for stable future relations (https://theconversation.com/brexit-transition-three-misunderstandings-about-the-deal-explained-93784)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on March 28, 2018, 08:34:59 AM
If you wonder what the expression Manger son chapeau means find out the 11 promises made by the brexiters which have been totally dropped

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/mar/28/11-brexit-promises-leavers-quietly-dropped (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/mar/28/11-brexit-promises-leavers-quietly-dropped)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: DaveF on March 28, 2018, 01:47:27 PM
Regarding the Irish border, there is a cluster of villages, all beginning Clon- (Clonooney, Clonagore, Cloniston) in a virtually detached portion of County Monaghan (Irish Republic), which are inaccessible except from Co. Fermanagh (Northern Ireland).  Since there don't appear to be any shops in any of these little places, one wonders whether the simplest shopping trip to the nearest town will involve passport checks at a hard border.  I think the problem facing the Irish border, which perhaps doesn't apply to those between other European nations, is that it wasn't drawn as a national border but as a series of British county ones, which themselves followed parish boundaries, with no thought of separating people living on either side.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: GioCar on March 28, 2018, 11:05:21 PM
The countdown has started, exactly one year to go.

To our British friends: one year to rethink? I believe games are over already, but hope really is hard to die.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on March 29, 2018, 02:53:36 PM
The countdown has started, exactly one year to go.

To our British friends: one year to rethink? I believe games are over already, but hope really is hard to die.

I'm afraid a rethink looks unlikely. There has been a small shift in the polls toward remain, but not by anywhere near enough to make much difference. Tonight's Newsnight discussion showed the problem: when asked if a Norway-type deal would be a betrayal, one woman's reply was that it would be. When asked why, her answer was, "well, it's not patriotic, is it?". Literally. That was her "logic". This kind of comment is by no means untypical of leave voters in such discussions. "Just get on with it", "we'll be fine", "have some faith in Britain" are the standard comments that come up time and time again. When you hear this drivel repeated so often it does become increasingly difficult not to conclude that we're allowing ourselves to be driven off a cliff in order to appease the dumbest person in the room. The leavers in the discussion naturally didn't want a vote on the final deal, so it apparently doesn't matter how bad the deal is as long as we leave. It would have been interesting if they'd been asked if they'd want a vote if we end up with a Norway-type deal - after all, that sort of deal would be a betrayal. Apparently.

One recent poll found that a majority of Brits view leaving the EU as more important than keeping Northern Ireland in the UK, so if the Irish border problem isn't solved, well many Brits are prepared to leave NI up shit creek in the name of Brexit. Or, to put it another way, if the price of the UK  "regaining its independence" is breaking up the UK, well so be it. I'd say that's a clear indication that there's not much rethinking going on. Or indeed much thinking of any sort.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on March 30, 2018, 12:27:22 AM
Thats seems to be my impression as well. The UK is going to sleep walk out of the EU, with most people taking a "wait-and-see" attitude. And they will have to wait a little bit longer before the reality of Brexit will appear, because the transition agreement will take most of the edge of things till January 1st 2021. I do think he UK will accept a special economic status for NI as a "fall back position"  - in name only, just to sell it to Brexiteers the myth of a magical technical solution will be promoted as a viable option until it is too late..

After the transition there will be a rude awakening. I suspect there will be either a Norway deal or a hard Brexit, probably nothing in between.The EU will not be willing to extend the transition, as the Tories now already hope for....
UK domestic politics will also play a decisive role by that time.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Spineur on April 21, 2018, 11:36:06 PM
Brexit and music.  Bleak prospects for the industry according to this article

http://www.howardgoodall.co.uk/articles-press-etc/brexit-and-music-theme-and-variations (http://www.howardgoodall.co.uk/articles-press-etc/brexit-and-music-theme-and-variations)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Jo498 on April 22, 2018, 06:24:30 AM
If Goodall has been in this business for 40 years, he must remember pre-Schengen times of the 1970s and 80s. I might be totally missing a point here, but as far as recall musicians and conductors did travel all over Europe for concertizing, conducting etc. even then. So either they put up with bureaucratic nightmares everytime or it was not all that bad.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on April 22, 2018, 07:18:22 AM

     Russia will keep attacking Britain unless Brexit meddling is handled (http://thehill.com/opinion/international/379183-russia-will-keep-attacking-britain-unless-brexit-meddling-is-handled)

     Observing from the US I naturally wonder how the Putin-Brexit connection is viewed. The article in the link suggests a reluctance to see Russian attacks in a systematic way. Is that so?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on April 23, 2018, 03:34:43 PM
     Russia will keep attacking Britain unless Brexit meddling is handled (http://thehill.com/opinion/international/379183-russia-will-keep-attacking-britain-unless-brexit-meddling-is-handled)

     Observing from the US I naturally wonder how the Putin-Brexit connection is viewed. The article in the link suggests a reluctance to see Russian attacks in a systematic way. Is that so?

There's a fair bit of cognitive dissonance going on where the whole Putin-Brexit connection is concerned. On the one hand, most Brits will readily agree with the proposition that Russia pumps out misinformation in order to meddle in other countries' affairs. I don't think there are many people on this side of the pond who have much trouble believing that the Russians interfered in the 2016 US election and in so doing may have secured Trump votes in vital states.

But with Brexit it's different, because if Leave voters were to admit that the same thing may have happened with the Brexit referendum campaign, they would have to acknowledge that they may be among the people who have been duped. It's one thing to laugh at those silly Americans for being fooled by Russian propaganda, but the idea that some of us Brits might have been taken in as well? An outrageous suggestion! The line that's generally been taken on the few occasions I've seen this discussed is that "no-one was fooled in to voting for Brexit", which does rather gloss over the fact that if the Russians did meddle in the Brexit campaign then there may well be people who did indeed vote for Brexit on the basis of misinformation, and could therefore be said to have been "fooled in to voting for Brexit".

Then you have to add in to this situation the role of the press, which in the UK is heavily dominated by the right. Most of these papers are rabidly pro-Brexit, so any attempt to question the referendum result on the basis of possible Russian meddling will immediately provoke howls of outrage at the "will of the people" being thwarted by "treacherous saboteurs" (and they'll still say that even if it turns out that the real saboteurs were actually the Russians). And all of this is before you get to the reasons outlined in the article which go a long way to explaining the unwillingness of many of our politicians to tackle Russian interference in a serious way.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on April 23, 2018, 03:43:00 PM
A possible breakthrough on the Irish border?

https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241 (https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241)

This is just the sort of bold and innovative thinking which is sure to make Brexit a roaring success. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 23, 2018, 08:47:33 PM
A possible breakthrough on the Irish border?

https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241 (https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241)

This is just the sort of bold and innovative thinking which is sure to make Brexit a roaring success.

Hilarious.  :)

Word from Brussels is that the solutions the UK proposed involved either a lot of trust ("You don't need any checks, we'll take of it" How??) or expensive, advanced technology that might never work and a lot of red tape.

A no go, therefore. Either the UK is going to budge, or the Irish are going to sink any prospect of a transition deal.
And I think the Irish mean it, since they are seriously preparing for an immediate hard Brexit.... (As are the Dutch).

A way out of the situation comes from unexpected quarters. It seems that the majority of British MP's - and of the British public - is slowly shifting towards BINO (Brexit in name only).... 8)

First step is the decision to remain in the customs union. Which frankly helps a bit but is not as fundamental as is suggested. The UK economy is not about goods, but about services. And for that you need the real prize: remaining in the internal market.... Which in due time, before the transition period is over, is what is going to happen IMO. Probably after Brexit itself, since it will probably topple May's government.

Of course in that case the whole NI issue will dissapear. :)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on April 26, 2018, 05:34:14 AM
      Here is my dilemma on Brexit. International agreements on most subjects are good in themselves, but on questions of monetary sovereignty I go the other way.

      Brexit Fear Mongering Proving Wrong (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4165417-brexit-fear-mongering-proving-wrong)

      I see it that the geostrategic argument against Brexit is good but that the economic argument requires that the economy be deliberately recessed, that an extra step is required to make the bad outcome predicted a fact, engineering an outcome bad enough to (heh!) make it so.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 26, 2018, 08:59:25 AM
      Here is my dilemma on Brexit. International agreements on most subjects are good in themselves, but on questions of monetary sovereignty I go the other way.

Spoken like a true American!  :D

Well... not everybody has the greenback as their national currency.....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 26, 2018, 11:20:35 PM
While Westminster is submerging in a debate on whether to reamain in a customs union with the EU, the Irish send a final warning:

UK must accept it is decision time on Brexit - Hogan (https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0426/957386-phil-hogan/)

"The EU must be satisfied the UK's invention will work or it is the backstop. The deadline is set for June. No decision, no Withdrawal Treaty; no Withdrawal Treaty, no transition."

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on April 27, 2018, 07:52:59 AM
Spoken like a true American!  :D

Well... not everybody has the greenback as their national currency.....  ::)

Q

     I don't think it has to do with the greenback at all. It has to do with what the loss of monetary sovereignty does to countries that have lost it. There's still the danger of purely self imposed austerity but that's something a country can still defeat or reverse if it hasn't got itself into the clutches of international Austerions.

     I'm a horrible example of a True American as these things are judged. Both US parties are too austere for me. The term of art is "neoliberal".
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2018, 09:17:05 PM
The destructive power of Brexit:

Brexit is breaking up Europe’s €10 billion plan to launch a new constellation of satellites (https://qz.com/1264365/brexit-is-breaking-up-galileo-europes-e10-billion-plan-to-launch-new-satellites/)

The UK wants to stay in the project.

The question is as before: if you don't want to abide by commonly agreed rules - how?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 27, 2018, 09:23:14 PM
     I don't think it has to do with the greenback at all. It has to do with what the loss of monetary sovereignty does to countries that have lost it.

I see your point. But my point is that smaller countries or weak economies have effectively very limited monetary sovereignty anyway. Nevertheless, as it is at the moment, the euro was a mistake. But the only ones that sacrificed real monetary sovereignty were the Germans.

However, the whole issue is unrelated to Brexit, since the Brits were smart enough to keep their own currency...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on April 30, 2018, 08:45:34 PM
More trouble for May:

Theresa May suffered another major defeat on Brexit as House of Lords voted to give the British parliament a say over the terms of a future UK-EU deal.

Peers voted by 335 to 244 for an amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill which would give MPs a “meaningful vote” on the deal May brings back from Brussels.The amendment gives parliament the power to decide what the government should do if May’s final deal is rejected in the Commons. (https://www.businessinsider.nl/lords-vote-to-give-parliament-more-say-on-brexit-in-another-defeat-for-theresa-may-2018-4/?international=true&r=US)

The Lords are trying to make Brexit manageable again.... What are the Commons going to do?  ::)

Will May's government last till Brexit? (Probably not....)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 03, 2018, 02:09:32 PM
More trouble for May:

Theresa May suffered another major defeat on Brexit as House of Lords voted to give the British parliament a say over the terms of a future UK-EU deal.

Peers voted by 335 to 244 for an amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill which would give MPs a “meaningful vote” on the deal May brings back from Brussels.The amendment gives parliament the power to decide what the government should do if May’s final deal is rejected in the Commons. (https://www.businessinsider.nl/lords-vote-to-give-parliament-more-say-on-brexit-in-another-defeat-for-theresa-may-2018-4/?international=true&r=US)

The Lords are trying to make Brexit manageable again.... What are the Commons going to do?  ::)

Will May's government last till Brexit? (Probably not....)

Q

Guess what the "crunch" meeting on which customs option to go for produced? Yes, that's right. Another fudge. Not that it matters anyway: from the way it's been reported here, you'd think whichever one they decided on would be the one we'll get, but the EU has already made it clear that it regards both as unworkable anyway. So it's nearly two years since the referendum, less than a year until we leave - and the government still can't choose between two customs options which the other side has already rejected.

And yet, these cretins still have a narrow lead in the majority of polls. Brexit really does seem to override everything: we have a health service on its knees, an explosion in the number of people relying on food banks to avoid starvation, the normalisation of badly paid, insecure, dead-end jobs, especially those on zero hours contracts, the disaster of universal credit, and the Tories conducting the Brexit negotiations in a manner that makes the Keystone Cops look like a well-drilled unit.......and it seems none of this matters, as long as we leave the EU. It doesn't even seem to matter that the Brexiteers' promises are going up in smoke, or how bad a deal we appear to be heading for - as long as we leave. Barring a miracle, we seem to be well and truly screwed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 03, 2018, 11:16:16 PM
....and it seems none of this matters, as long as we leave the EU. It doesn't even seem to matter that the Brexiteers' promises are going up in smoke, or how bad a deal we appear to be heading for - as long as we leave. Barring a miracle, we seem to be well and truly screwed.

I hope not!  :) Once the UK makes it into a transition deal, you'll be OK on Brexit because it will silently morph into a Brexit In Name Only (BINO)...with a continued customs union and participation of the internal market. I'm convinced that no viable alternative will materialize during the transition period.

The big risk now, is that a transition deal falls through because the UK doesn't accept the "backstop" arrangement for NI that the EU and Ireland want. The halfbaked customs scheme May is cooking up won't work. To avoid a hard border Northern Ireland will have the be a special status territory that is part of the EU customs union and is regulatory aligned in key economic areas.

Anyway, if I'm right in my predictions the NI issue will dissapear in due time and resolved by BINO....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 04, 2018, 05:58:44 AM
I hope not!  :) Once the UK makes it into a transition deal, you'll be OK on Brexit because it will silently morph into a Brexit In Name Only (BINO)...with a continued customs union and participation of the internal market. I'm convinced that no viable alternative will materialize during the transition period.

The big risk now, is that a transition deal falls through because the UK doesn't accept the "backstop" arrangement for NI that the EU and Ireland want. The halfbaked customs scheme May is cooking up won't work. To avoid a hard border Northern Ireland will have the be a special status territory that is part of the EU customs union and is regulatory aligned in key economic areas.

Anyway, if I'm right in my predictions the NI issue will dissapear in due time and resolved by BINO....

Q

The scenario you describe is obviously possible, but it's not a foregone conclusion by any means. The results of yesterday's local elections show the remain/leave split in the country is still there, with the Tories' vote going way up in areas that voted most strongly to leave. That suggests that the staggering incompetence of the way they've handled the negotiations doesn't bother leave voters, who just want a hard Brexit come what may. For once, Rees Mogg may be right when he says that BINO would be electorally toxic for the Tories, since Remainers would still be unhappy as it would still be Brexit, while leave voters would view it as a betrayal. If the Tories think a hard Brexit is in their best interests then that's what they'll do, with the EU being blamed for its "intransigence". Never mind that such a course would be economic madness: in a contest between what's in the best interests of the Tory party and the best interests of the country the latter will come a distant second.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 06:47:08 AM
Mr Minnow could be writing my posts for me. I follow a lot of links via Twitter. As well as keeping up with it, it allows me a safety valve for my anger and contempt. That ire is not restricted to the Tory party. Labour is just as bad with its equivocating leader the secret BREXITeer. The secret only seems to operate for a large sector of Labour voters who seem to think the acquiesence on BREXIT is some kind of tactic that will wrongfoot the government at some vital juncture. The rest of us know perfectly well that Corbyn is anti-EU. The 48% voters against BREXIT have no viable party to vote for.

Our only hope is that with bad economic news daily, there will be a cross bench revolt and Labour together with rebels decide to vote down a deal if it looks uterly disasterous.

The turnout yesterday was only 33%. I am not so sure this is entirely due to a lack of interest. It may well be some Tory and Labour remain voters stayed at home rather than bring themselves to vote for some other party that would get nowhere. But I imagine that would only affect turnout rates a little. There is so much going wrong here, not just BREXIT, it should be a gift for any non brain-dead opposition.

I could go on, and on and on. But I will ask Mr Minnow to continue to speak for me, somewhat.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 04, 2018, 10:41:14 AM
Mr Minnow could be writing my posts for me. I follow a lot of links via Twitter. As well as keeping up with it, it allows me a safety valve for my anger and contempt. That ire is not restricted to the Tory party. Labour is just as bad with its equivocating leader the secret BREXITeer. The secret only seems to operate for a large sector of Labour voters who seem to think the acquiesence on BREXIT is some kind of tactic that will wrongfoot the government at some vital juncture. The rest of us know perfectly well that Corbyn is anti-EU. The 48% voters against BREXIT have no viable party to vote for.

Our only hope is that with bad economic news daily, there will be a cross bench revolt and Labour together with rebels decide to vote down a deal if it looks uterly disasterous.

The turnout yesterday was only 33%. I am not so sure this is entirely due to a lack of interest. It may well be some Tory and Labour remain voters stayed at home rather than bring themselves to vote for some other party that would get nowhere. But I imagine that would only affect turnout rates a little. There is so much going wrong here, not just BREXIT, it should be a gift for any non brain-dead opposition.

I could go on, and on and on. But I will ask Mr Minnow to continue to speak for me, somewhat.

Mike

Hi Mike. At the risk of not continuing to speak for you to some extent, I do think Corbyn's stance on the EU has changed somewhat over the last 30 years, as I said somewhere on this thread a while back. He's clearly not its biggest fan, but I think he's well aware of the fact that EU membership is vastly preferable to a hard Brexit cast in the image of the hard right of the Tory party.

I agree that his current stance is not part of some great master strategy, but I do think he's waiting for leave voters to get to the point where they're ready to give a fair hearing to a soft Brexit, i.e. staying in both the CU/SM (and hopefully voting down whatever sack of shite the Maybot eventually comes back with). But as yesterday's local elections seem to show, most leave voters are just not willing to listen yet - not just to Corbyn, but anyone who doesn't say Brexit will lead to the magical sunlit uplands. The conduct of the negotiations has been utterly shambolic, the Brexiteers' promises are a distant memory, there's still no sign of a workable solution to the Irish border - and they still seem to want the Tories to drive us off the cliff. Mention the things I mentioned earlier - the state of the NHS, food banks, zero hours contracts etc., not to mention the ongoing abuse of the sick and disabled - and the usual response is a shrug of the shoulders and something which amounts to "yeah, but Brexit, innit".

I've had conversations with leave voters on these issues and it makes absolutely no difference if you point out the gaping holes in the arguments for Brexit. Here's how the last one went:

"We won't be paying money into the EU budget".

Well we might actually, but even if we're not, that "saving" will be dwarfed by the hit to trade with our biggest trading partner.

"We can tear up EU rules and sign new trade deals with other countries".

Except we'll have to follow EU rules if we want to trade with them post-Brexit, and any new trade deals will themselves mean signing up to a load more regulations, because that's what trade deals consist of.

"We can control EU immigration".

Well we can do that now - any EU citizen can be sent home after 3 months if they don't have a job or other means of support - but our government chooses not to. And since the likes of India and China will want less stringent immigration rules for their citizens as part of any future trade deals, overall immigration is unlikely to fall much, if at all. It might well even rise.

The bloke I was talking to had no counterarguments to any of this, so I asked him if he'd vote for Brexit again: "oh yeah, definitely". That's the mentality Corbyn is up against.

Corbyn has been dealt a really bloody awful hand - he's got to somehow hang on to younger and metropolitan Labour voters who voted remain, and voters in traditional Labour heartlands who voted leave in large numbers. As Brexit unravels it may be that these leave voters will have second thoughts, but the risk of making a move now to advocating SM membership is that he alienates a large chunk of Labour voters who then switch to the Tories - and as insane as that would be, some have already done it. Should that happen, the same "moderates" now pushing him to support SM membership would then slag him off for not appealing to traditional Labour voters. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

Don't get me wrong, I'm also frustrated that he hasn't gone further than supporting CU membership, but I can see why he hasn't. The whole thing is an utter shitshow and Corbyn has no good options. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe if he announced now that Labour would support staying in the SM perhaps their poll numbers would rise and the Tories would be on the ropes. Unfortunately I just can't see it at the moment. I hope the Tory Remainer rebels put down an amendment in the Commons committing us to the SM, because that really would be crunch time with sitting on the fence no longer an option. If that happened and Corbyn whipped his MPs to vote against it then that really would make me think twice. I hope he would support it though, because aside from Brexit his policy agenda is generally a pretty good one.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 11:50:10 AM
Many things over a number of years contributed to the BREXIT vote. One was the complete lack of campaigning and luke warm attitude of Corbyn. He whispered support and did not back it with action. Had he extended himself, we might not be here in this situation. For me that spoke strongly of his lack of integrity. He is acquiescing in the lie that the referendum was binding. He has, mostly, said he would refuse a second vote, despite there being a big majority of Labour voters who now would vote against BREXIT. His democratic credentials therefore seem deeply suspect to me. If he firmly changed his mind on BREXIT, I would again support Labour, even though in Scotland they seem increasingly like a bowling club for retirees and increasingly irrelevant.

To add to the woes of the country, which you listed, the Justice system is degraded to the point it is not really functioning. Only today there was a report that rapists have less than a 2% probability of being caught and sentenced. We also have had quiet amendments to the compensation rules.

You can be arrested and held in custody. If innocent you are now unlikely to get anything like full reimbursement of your costs. Nor can you any longer rely on getting compensation, unless....wait for it.....it would have been IMPOSSIBLE for you to have committed the crime of which you were found not guilty! That is the Tory Government at its very best.

Mike

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 04, 2018, 02:07:32 PM
Many things over a number of years contributed to the BREXIT vote. One was the complete lack of campaigning and luke warm attitude of Corbyn. He whispered support and did not back it with action. Had he extended himself, we might not be here in this situation. For me that spoke strongly of his lack of integrity. He is acquiescing in the lie that the referendum was binding. He has, mostly, said he would refuse a second vote, despite there being a big majority of Labour voters who now would vote against BREXIT. His democratic credentials therefore seem deeply suspect to me.

I was also under the impression that Corbyn hadn't done a great deal during the Brexit referendum campaign until I saw an article listing the speeches he'd given and pro-Remain events he'd been at (can't find it now, this was a year or more back). Assuming the article was accurate, he actually did extend himself - but barely any of those events and speeches got much (or indeed any) coverage. You'd expect the Tory press to refuse him coverage, but even the broadcasters didn't bother for the most part. That said, maybe it's not so surprising when you look at how our national broadcaster has covered Labour under Corbyn. BBC News often resembles a branch of Tory central office these days.

It is indeed true that the referendum was technically advisory rather than legally binding. However, I don't think this is a viable way of opposing Brexit. If Corbyn said that the result should be ignored because it was only advisory he'd be committing political suicide. Support for Brexit among Labour voters would almost certainly soar and Labour's support would crash. Not even the "moderates" want to go down that road.

Supporting a second referendum would be a risk, though I agree it's one he might be on firm enough ground to take, since there is now evidence from polling that a fairly clear majority of the public supports a referendum on the terms of the final deal. Presumably that must include some leave voters, which should mitigate worries that such a shift in policy would provoke the usual "BREXIT SABOTAGE!!!!" screeching in the Tory press.   

Quote
If he firmly changed his mind on BREXIT, I would again support Labour, even though in Scotland they seem increasingly like a bowling club for retirees and increasingly irrelevant.

Oh yes, I forgot about Scottish Labour - first Jim Murphy, then Kezia Dugdale, who told Labour voters they should vote Tory to keep the SNP out in places Labour couldn't win before buggering off to a vacuous "reality" TV show. Christ almighty, what a loss to the party she is.

Quote
To add to the woes of the country, which you listed, the Justice system is degraded to the point it is not really functioning. Only today there was a report that rapists have less than a 2% probability of being caught and sentenced. We also have had quiet amendments to the compensation rules.

You can be arrested and held in custody. If innocent you are now unlikely to get anything like full reimbursement of your costs. Nor can you any longer rely on getting compensation, unless....wait for it.....it would have been IMPOSSIBLE for you to have committed the crime of which you were found not guilty! That is the Tory Government at its very best.

Mike

That seems to be yet another one of those things that's got lost as Brexit overrides everything. The absolute shit a government can get away with by stirring up nationalist sentiment is something to behold.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 09:23:13 PM
Yes, I agree with a lot of that, though Corbyn had opportunities to share cross-party platforms on the referendum, but did not take them up.

One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted. When I was in my 20s, in the 1970s I bought the Guardian. Eventually I got fed up with all the moaning in the letters, every day. I thought that if they reflected the readership, then all the constant complaining did not reflect me, so I dropped it for many years. However, I read it on line daily now. 

I used to be a complete news junkie, Today, The Westminster Hour, The Week in Westminster, Daily Politics, Question Time, Times and Sunday Times etc. I have dropped them all, and moved on-line. I follow US politics to distract from the gut-wrenching UK situation. We could do with a Washington Post equivalent over here.

The Guardian now is probably too comfortable, in being part of my own bubble, I read it a lot, so I go to Chanel 4 which although left leaning, does look at issues more in the round. The newspapers up here are not worth reading even for free. I am so disappointed in how soft the BBC Today programme has gone on the Government. They ought to have been savaging the idiotic ideas the Tory ministers come out with. Also, they could have run fact checks during the campaign and provided info on what we actually get from the EC. They just give Tories a pass and attack Labour behaviours, bypassing their policies. And UKIP has been given air time across the BBC well beyond their level of support......I think I had better go for a lie down.

By the way, I feel like I know quite a lot and quite a range of folk, but I only know two who voted BREXIT. And I have not seen them since the day of the result. My acquaintances must be narrower than I thought. I encounter plenty of folk who shock me on-line. The country is stuffed with bigotry, stuffed.

Mike

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on May 04, 2018, 09:51:20 PM


One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted.

I usually stay out of these threads, but in this instance I'm completely in agreement regarding the terrible change in the BBC. It's sunk to the level of a Murdoch tabloid. And it's almost shamelessly transparent about it.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 05, 2018, 02:11:49 PM
Yes, I agree with a lot of that, though Corbyn had opportunities to share cross-party platforms on the referendum, but did not take them up.

One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted. When I was in my 20s, in the 1970s I bought the Guardian. Eventually I got fed up with all the moaning in the letters, every day. I thought that if they reflected the readership, then all the constant complaining did not reflect me, so I dropped it for many years. However, I read it on line daily now. 

I used to be a complete news junkie, Today, The Westminster Hour, The Week in Westminster, Daily Politics, Question Time, Times and Sunday Times etc. I have dropped them all, and moved on-line. I follow US politics to distract from the gut-wrenching UK situation. We could do with a Washington Post equivalent over here.

The Guardian now is probably too comfortable, in being part of my own bubble, I read it a lot, so I go to Chanel 4 which although left leaning, does look at issues more in the round. The newspapers up here are not worth reading even for free. I am so disappointed in how soft the BBC Today programme has gone on the Government. They ought to have been savaging the idiotic ideas the Tory ministers come out with. Also, they could have run fact checks during the campaign and provided info on what we actually get from the EC. They just give Tories a pass and attack Labour behaviours, bypassing their policies. And UKIP has been given air time across the BBC well beyond their level of support......I think I had better go for a lie down.

I couldn't agree more. I used to see someone on the left accusing the BBC of a right wing bias, then I'd see someone on the right accusing it of left wing bias and conclude it must be pretty impartial. Their coverage of Labour under Corbyn has made it impossible to hold that view any longer.  By the way, I don't think Channel 4 News is even left-leaning, it's just even-handed - but that alone is enough to make it look left-leaning when compared to the BBC, Sky and to some extent ITV News. Such is the nature of our "impartial" broadcasters.

Quote
I encounter plenty of folk who shock me on-line. The country is stuffed with bigotry, stuffed.

Mike

Unfortunately the internet allows bigots to vent their poison with anonymity and therefore no consequences. I suppose it does shine a light on what their real views are, however depressing they may be. I'm convinced that the Windrush scandal did the Tories no harm at all in the local elections and may even have helped them. Some people won't really give a shit about something that "only" affects immigrants - even if they are perfectly legal - and the bigots will be positively pleased about it.

The Brexit vote has made things far worse as those who hold really toxic views believe that the vote to leave has validated those views. When you see people asked about why they voted for Brexit and they're happy to say shit like "to get the Muslims out" to camera, something really has gone badly wrong. Even just a few years ago you'd have really struggled to find people who would be willing to display such bigotry so openly without any sense of shame. 

Interesting article here:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/04/labour-fudge-brexit-local-elections-leave-remain-corbyn (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/04/labour-fudge-brexit-local-elections-leave-remain-corbyn)

I'm not Freedland's biggest fan as he's pretty typical New Labour, but I think he's right about this:

Quote
Even ahead of the crunch decisions in October, the Lords will vote on Tuesday on an amendment that would keep Britain in the single market. If that passes and comes before the Commons, would the Labour front bench move against it? If they did, what would their anti-Brexit supporters make of that: Labour acting to keep Britain out of the single market, with its protections of environmental and workers’ rights? The one option that won’t be available to the party leadership is more fudge.

If there's a vote on the single market in the Lords on Tuesday then Corbyn will have to get off the fence whether he wants to or not. The Lords is even more heavily pro-Remain than the Commons, so this amendment should be passed. It would then presumably have to be voted on in the Commons. Supporting SM membership might lose Corbyn some Labour leave voters,  but opposing it would lose him a lot of the younger voters who flocked to Labour when he won the leadership. They're his biggest power base in the party - and they also tend to be the most passionately anti-Brexit. As much as I don't like seeing Brexit overriding so many domestic issues which aren't getting anywhere near the attention they should, if we're not even in the SM the economic fallout would almost certainly scupper Corbyn's domestic agenda. I'd hate to see that happen.


Another Observer/Guardian article says this:

Quote
The Observer understands that more than 40 Labour peers are ready to back a cross-party amendment to Brexit legislation that would instruct the government to begin negotiating future UK membership of the European Economic Area (EEA).

This would mean that the UK would leave the EU and not be part of the common agricultural policy, common fisheries policy or be subject to the European Court of Justice. It would also be able to strike its own deal on freedom of movement, while being inside the EU internal market.

Not sure if this is the same amendment referred to by Freedland, but this sounds like a very decent option for Labour to go for. Inside the SM, which along with Corbyn's support for a customs union would solve the Irish border problem, able to strike a deal on freedom of movement, which should be an effective answer to the "SM = unlimited EU immigration" crap, and close enough to the EU to at least mitigate the worst of the economic damage caused by Brexit. I really hope he doesn't oppose SM membership when it comes to the crunch. I'd feel really torn over who to support if he did, especially since in England we don't have an English equivalent of the SNP to vote for.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 06, 2018, 12:26:37 AM
If there's a vote on the single market in the Lords on Tuesday then Corbyn will have to get off the fence whether he wants to or not. The Lords is even more heavily pro-Remain than the Commons, so this amendment should be passed. It would then presumably have to be voted on in the Commons. Supporting SM membership might lose Corbyn some Labour leave voters,  but opposing it would lose him a lot of the younger voters who flocked to Labour when he won the leadership. They're his biggest power base in the party - and they also tend to be the most passionately anti-Brexit. As much as I don't like seeing Brexit overriding so many domestic issues which aren't getting anywhere near the attention they should, if we're not even in the SM the economic fallout would almost certainly scupper Corbyn's domestic agenda. I'd hate to see that happen.


Another Observer/Guardian article says this:

Not sure if this is the same amendment referred to by Freedland, but this sounds like a very decent option for Labour to go for. Inside the SM, which along with Corbyn's support for a customs union would solve the Irish border problem, able to strike a deal on freedom of movement, which should be an effective answer to the "SM = unlimited EU immigration" crap, and close enough to the EU to at least mitigate the worst of the economic damage caused by Brexit. I really hope he doesn't oppose SM membership when it comes to the crunch. I'd feel really torn over who to support if he did, especially since in England we don't have an English equivalent of the SNP to vote for.

I think Corbyn will let you down and turn against membership of the Single Market, since he thinks the EU rules on fair competition and state aide will block his agenda of economic reforms. Of course he is wrong, as various experts and prominent Labour members have argued many times over.

But I guess if something is too complex to understand, you stick with your gut instinct... Brexit in a nutshell, I would say....  ::)

The big question is whether Corbyn will get his party behind him. Probably Labour will be, like the Tories, divided to the bone...and so, on it goes... off the cliff....

Labour peers accuse Corbyn of Brexit cowardice
Party is blocking efforts in Lords to call for membership of the European Economic Area
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/05/labour-peers-accuse-corbyn-brexit-cowardice)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 02:54:41 AM
Yes, there is a kind of underhand equivocation going on in Labour. Seeming to keep options open, but closing off those options as fast as they claim them to be feasible. It depends who is speaking and indicates their real divisions in the party. Dear Little Owen’s daily student-politics lectures to the less than blindly faithful have become counter productive. He is one of those....into the head, out of the mouth filterless pundits. He tweeted that those in the middle ground ideologically were nazis. He quickly deleted it, but it not only shows his playground attitudes, but made me wonder how he characterises the extreme right. One of his recent blunders was suggesting on-line that Corbyn sue Lord Sugar, a Jew, right at the worst week on the anti-semitic controversy. That would have played well, and right into the hands of Corbyn’s opponents. People, esp those supporting Labour need to stop listening to him, he has no basic political nous.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday.

Glasgow hosted a really large independence rally yesterday. The sectarian bitterness between Protastant and Catholic has transferred itself to the Yes and No proponents. There are a lot of vile folk about who love to latch onto anything that gives them an opportunity to bully. I have always been firmly a no independence Scot, but am getting to the point that I prefer to be badly ruled from Edinburgh than disasterously ruled form Westminster.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 03:23:28 AM
I think Corbyn will let you down and turn against membership of the Single Market, since he thinks the EU rules on fair competition and state aide will block his agenda of economic reforms. Of course he is wrong, as various experts and prominent Labour members have argued many times over.

But I guess if something is to complex to understand, you stick with your gut instinct... Brexit in a nutshell, I would say....  ::)

That's the worry. He obviously has his faults, but I like Corbyn. His heart is in the right place, which might not sound like much, but it's pretty fundamental: if a politician has policies which are going to hurt me personally and screw the country generally then I don't care how competent or incompetent they are, as it's not going to be good either way. The current government is ample proof of that.

Corbyn is also the first leader of a major UK-wide party to challenge the dominance of Thatcherism/neoliberalism/call it what you like over the last 40 years. In terms of his domestic agenda he's got Labour pretty much where they should be. But if we're not in the SM and the economic fallout means there's no way he can implement that agenda then we really are in trouble. The deluge of abuse from the Tories would be predictable enough, but the right of the Labour party would leap at the chance to say that only a Tory-lite Labour party is viable, which takes us back to having a "choice" between a very right wing party and a marginally less right wing party.


Quote
The big question is whether Corbyn will get his party behind him. Probably Labour will be, like the Tories, divided to the bone...and so, on it goes... off the cliff....

Labour peers accuse Corbyn of Brexit cowardice
Party is blocking efforts in Lords to call for membership of the European Economic Area
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/05/labour-peers-accuse-corbyn-brexit-cowardice)

Q

I can't see how he gets his party behind him if he actively opposes SM or EEA membership. If he does that it won't just be the usual suspects on the backbenches causing trouble, for the first time it will be the membership - which up until now has resolutely supported him - who will be severely disappointed. A lot of people, me included, have stuck with Corbyn even when he looked certain to be slaughtered at last year's election because he was the only one offering something different and better instead of the same old shit. If he opposes SM membership and alienates those who have stuck by him up until now then he's got big problems. To say nothing of the country not having a viable opposition to the hard Brexit we'll get from the Tories.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 03:28:51 AM
Yes, there is a kind of underhand equivocation going on in Labour. Seeming to keep options open, but closing off those options as fast as they claim them to be feasible. It depends who is speaking and indicates their real divisions in the party. Dear Little Owen’s daily student-politics lectures to the less than blindly faithful have become counter productive. He is one of those....into the head, out of the mouth filterless pundits. He tweeted that those in the middle ground ideologically were nazis. He quickly deleted it, but it not only shows his playground attitudes, but made me wonder how he characterises the extreme right. One of his recent blunders was suggesting on-line that Corbyn sue Lord Sugar, a Jew, right at the worst week on the anti-semitic controversy. That would have played well, and right into the hands of Corbyn’s opponents. People, esp those supporting Labour need to stop listening to him, he has no basic political nous.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday.

Glasgow hosted a really large independence rally yesterday. The sectarian bitterness between Protastant and Catholic has transferred itself to the Yes and No proponents. There are a lot of vile folk about who love to latch onto anything that gives them an opportunity to bully. I have always been firmly a no independence Scot, but am getting to the point that I prefer to be badly ruled from Edinburgh than disasterously ruled form Westminster.

Mike

You'll know more about this than me, but I'd have thought that the harder the Brexit, the more support for Scottish independence will grow. I can't see many Scots wanting to live in a country ruled by the ideology of Rees Mogg and co..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 06, 2018, 07:00:42 AM
The plot thickens... That's a big IF.....  8)

Brexit: Rebel Tories say they have enough MPs to push Theresa May into staying in single market – IF Labour backs it. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-rebel-tories-single-market-vote-theresa-may-labour-backing-a8336971.html)

So, a coalition of Labour and Tory rebels could avoid a cliff edge Brexit....

But what about Corbyn and Eurosceptic Labour voters...?  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 07:36:14 AM
The big conundrum.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 09:15:38 AM
The plot thickens... That's a big IF.....  8)

Brexit: Rebel Tories say they have enough MPs to push Theresa May into staying in single market – IF Labour backs it. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-rebel-tories-single-market-vote-theresa-may-labour-backing-a8336971.html)

So, a coalition of Labour and Tory rebels could avoid a cliff edge Brexit....

But what about Corbyn and Eurosceptic Labour voters...?  ::)

If this is true, it really is crunch time. If Corbyn has the chance to scupper the Tories' hard Brexit and doesn't take it, the consequences are likely to make any possible drawbacks of supporting SM membership (i.e. losing some pro-Brexit Labour voters) look utterly insignificant by comparison. Even the younger voters who have backed him so strongly may well find it too much to take. 

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 06, 2018, 01:54:29 PM
Just found a gem in this article: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/06/hard-brexit-create-more-anger-remaining (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/06/hard-brexit-create-more-anger-remaining)

Quote
I have already reported the finding by Bettergovgroup that “there is now widespread public recognition that the referendum was flawed and that people were not given the relevant facts”. This is hardly surprising when one realises that our former ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, had to explain to the leading Brexiters in the cabinet after the referendum what the customs union and single market actually were.

Bloody hell.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 10:12:43 PM
Well, even 18 months later it was clear a lot of politicians were still clueless by their proclamations of how we could or could not do such and such in or out of a customs union. They were also making daft comments on what the likes of Switzerland and Norway could and could not do. That included Corbyn very recently. If they can’t get their heads round this, they can’t lead.

Mike
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 09, 2018, 10:59:11 PM
How predictable...  ::)

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn declines to support plan to keep UK in single market (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-eu-single-market-commons-vote-labour-customs-union-a8343176.html)

"His spokesman said keeping the UK in the single market as it stands, could undermine Mr Corbyn’s plans to intervene in British industry and reverse privatisation if he wins power."

Off course, Corbyn's grandiose plans with British industry....Good luck with that when the economy takes a nose dive...
And there is no reason why EU rules would prevent the reversal of privatisations per se, as long as fair competition is maintained... Does Corbyn think that British protectionism will go down well with future trading partners?  ::)

He basically makes the same mistake as the Tories: an isolated nationalistic agenda without giving consideration of the consequences for international aspects of the British economy. The fantasy of "splendid isolation"..
Corbyn wants access to the Single Market without accepting the rules on fair competition, sure...... :D

So, either Corbyn needs to change his mind or Labour needs to change its leadership, or else the Commons' vote on the Single Market that was designed by the Lords is dead on arrival.....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 09, 2018, 11:04:17 PM
And some see a 2nd referendum as the better way out instead of relying on Corbyn:

Pro-Europeans, don’t fight to stay in the single market. It’s the wrong battle.
Forget the amendment the Lords has voted for. A people’s vote on the Brexit deal is the true prize – all else is distraction
(https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/pro-europeans-single-market-lords-vote-brexit)

A 2nd referendum seems to me hard to achieve, and probably hard to win...
The electorate will likely be even more confused by the current situation than it was the last time around.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 11, 2018, 10:39:59 PM
Neil Kinnock on Labour and the Single Market:

"The objections to supporting EEA membership from some in the upper reaches of the Labour Party seem to centre on claims that it would either restrict a Labour government’s freedom of socialist action, or that it would mean ignoring our supporters who voted to leave the EU, or both.

The first of these claims is based on falsehood. The EEA is open to member states of the EU or the European Free Trade Association. Neither the EEA nor the EU are part of the socialist superstate of neocon delusion or of the global capitalist adventure playground of infantile leftist illusion.

The EEA is a mixed-economy agreement of 31 democracies “to promote continuous and balanced strengthening of trade and economic relations between the contracting parties with equal conditions of competition and the respect of the same rules”.

None of that prevents public ownership, social initiative, improving tax justice, promoting employment or advancing the welfare state – as so many instances in current member states show."


https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/neil-kinnock-corbyn-single-market-brexit-eu-labour-row-a8347606.html

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 12, 2018, 01:43:39 PM
And there is no reason why EU rules would prevent the reversal of privatisations per se, as long as fair competition is maintained... D
Q

I can't say the fair competition rules are something I've read a great deal about, but as I understand it there's nothing in them that says particular public services have to be privatised, or that a privatised public service can't be renationalised: it's just that if a service is privatised, then fair competition must apply. If that's right, I'm struggling to see why Corbyn thinks there's a problem.

Both main parties seem to be heading for a crunch point soon. For Labour that's the Commons vote on the EEA amendment passed in the Lords. If Corbyn doesn't back it there will be real trouble, this time quite possibly from the membership rather than just the malcontents on the backbenches. For the Tories, it's which customs option they decide to back. Both have been rejected by the EU already so in that sense it's academic, but whichever one gets the nod is going to alienate a big chunk of her own party. Up until now I've been sceptical of the idea that Brexit could end up splitting the two big parties, but such is the scale of the divisions in each party I'm beginning to wonder if it just might happen.

It's incredible to see the Brexiteers still spouting the same bollocks as two years ago, but special congratulations must go to Ruth Lea, who in barely two minutes managed a full house in Brexit Bullshit Bingo on the subject of the single market and Irish border:

"I can't see why a technological solution can't work."

"Who cares if there's a bit of smuggling across the Irish border?"

"The EU's stance is just a negotiating ploy."

"What about the way trade is conducted between the EU and Norway?" (Norway is in the single market and even then has border checks with Sweden)

"....or the trade between the EU and Switzerland?" (Switzerland is also in the single market, which the Brexiteers insist we have to leave)

"What about the example of the US/Canada border?"  (border checks again)

"Of course a technological solution can work, stop being such a pessimist."

It's hard to tell if they genuinely believe this crap, or know it's bullshit but are grimly sticking to it so they can blame the EU when it all goes tits up. 
   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 12, 2018, 01:58:13 PM

Up until now I've been sceptical of the idea that Brexit could end up splitting the two big parties, but such is the scale of the divisions in each party I'm beginning to wonder if it just might happen.

I'm starting to wonder if a 2nd referendum would be a way out for both divided parties?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 12, 2018, 02:35:54 PM
I'm starting to wonder if a 2nd referendum would be a way out for both divided parties?

Q

It might be something they would go for if they could see no other way out, but whether it would actually solve anything I'm not so sure. The 2016 referendum showed just how lousy a device it is when you have a public which has been deliberately and systematically lied to over many years. Then you have to look at current polling, which shows a small shift to Remain, but basically a country still split down the middle. If Leave were to win again that would be it, we'd be out for the foreseeable future and the Brexit ultras would be claiming a mandate for the hardest possible Brexit. Even if Remain were to win, unless there's a significant shift in the polls the margin of victory would probably be a narrow one - certainly not a win decisive enough to settle the issue, as happened in the 1975 referendum. That would just put us back to square one, except we'd also have Farage back and banging on about "unfinished business" (which is how he said he'd describe a narrow Remain win during the 2016 campaign when he thought Leave would lose - as luck would have it, a 52-48 victory was his example of a narrow Remain win which would constitute unfinished business).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 12, 2018, 11:49:33 PM
You are right, a new referendum with any other result than remaining in the EU would replicate the mess resulting from the previous one....  ::)

I'll be curious to see if Labour can pull off a leadership change....
Unless something happens on the side of Labour, May's govt is going to sleep walk into Brexit.
With or without a transition deal, depending on whether the UK agrees on a special status for NI.

I expect any split of parties or any other form of realignment of British politics after Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 13, 2018, 05:01:42 AM
You are right, a new referendum with any other result than remaining in the EU would replicate the mess resulting from the previous one....  ::)

More specifically, anything other than a decisive Remain win would replicate the current mess. I'd say it would need to be at least 60-40, and preferably more than that. No sign of it yet though.

Quote
I'll be curious to see if Labour can pull off a leadership change....
Unless something happens on the side of Labour, May's govt is going to sleep walk into Brexit.


It really depends on the views of the membership, which until now has been very pro-Corbyn. If Corbyn changes his policy to supporting the EEA amendment that's fine. If not, the membership might well start wondering if a change of leader is needed. It's not certain though, and even if it happened it's hard to see who would succeed him. Ideally it would be someone on the same page as Corbyn in terms of domestic policy, but also willing to offer a more pro-European policy. There's no way the self-styled "moderates" would get someone to their liking: the membership is rightly furious with them for the way they've sought to undermine Corbyn from day one, and in any case I don't see a Tory-lite candidate getting much traction in the country in the current political climate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 14, 2018, 04:29:14 PM
Saw a bit of tonight's Newsnight, talking about the Irish border. Their political editor said that one cabinet minister was annoyed with Michel Barnier for visiting the border and had said "does Barnier really want to be responsible for restarting the Troubles?". So it would seem that the UK government's inability to even agree its negotiating position, let alone come up with a workable solution for the Irish border - which has only become a problem because of Brexit in the first place - is Barnier's fault. It's so obvious when you think about it, isn't it?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 14, 2018, 09:15:42 PM
Yes, the Brexiteers better brush up their blame game.... because the signs still are that the Irish are going to play hard ball.....  ::)

Since any transition deal needs consent of the European Parliament and ratification by all member states, the deadline is quickly approaching.If there is no deal this summer, it's going to be an immediate hard Brexit.


The EU’s negotiator, Michel Barnier, said in Brussels that “a little progress” had been made in talks since March, but “some in the UK have yet to assume all the consequences of their decisions” – including, as he noted, “leaving 750 international agreements”.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 15, 2018, 03:17:05 AM
Yes, the Brexiteers better brush up their blame game.... because the signs still are that the Irish are going to play hard ball.....  ::)

As is the EU, which has stated clearly that Ireland has its full support on the border issue. But it's not a problem according to Rees Mogg:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/15/pessimism-about-customs-impasse-after-rees-mogg-remarks (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/15/pessimism-about-customs-impasse-after-rees-mogg-remarks)

Quote
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Rees-Mogg said May “ought not to take Brussels too seriously about the Irish question” when seeking a customs deal.

“The commission hides behind faux concern for the Irish border undermining the single market ...

Yes Jacob, why would the EU really be bothered about protecting the integrity of one of the fundamental pillars of the EU? It's obviously just a ploy. No need to take it seriously at all. What could possibly go wrong? Dear god.

This from the man who said a few days ago that he didn't need to visit the border to understand the problem because he talked to the DUP.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on May 15, 2018, 06:03:10 AM
Dardanelles is forgotten, Gallipoli is forgiven. Brexiteers to eat more doners, less fish&chips as May and Erdogan waltz together, touting expansion of trade talks.


https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/president-erdogan-theresa-may-post-brexit-trade-turkey-a8351531.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/president-erdogan-theresa-may-post-brexit-trade-turkey-a8351531.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 22, 2018, 07:36:02 AM
Facepalms at the ready folks.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth)

But remember, we have to leave the EU to increase our trade with other countries. Global Britain, etc..
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 24, 2018, 09:17:58 PM
Brexit has been a mess in slow motion right from the start, but the iceberg is quickly coming into sight - with the engines running at full speed and a broken rudder.... With panic and anger as a result:

EU officials tear into UK’s ‘fantasy’ Brexit negotiating strategy as talks turn bitter (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-eu-customs-plan-northern-ireland-theresa-may-a8368101.html)

Some interesting point the EU made:

On the European space project Galileo, which was virulently opposed by the UK at its conception, but which it now wants not only to continue to use but also remain party to running it:

The EU says British demands to retain the same access to Galileo as a member state are unreasonable. Though officials say Britain could potentially still use the system, they do not want to give British defence firms the right to build or run parts of it because they say that would effectively give the UK, a third country, the power to turn off the EU system for member states.
Officials also pointed out that the UK itself had signed off the security rules restricting non-EU countries from running parts of system, as one of the 28 European Council members, before it knew it was going to leave.


On the European arrest warrant:

EU negotiators complain that the British side “do not understand” that Britain will not be able to use the European arrest warrant after Brexit, with Theresa May again having pledged to stay in the system just three months ago.
There are member states that simply cannot extradite their own nationals to a non-member of the EU. This is a constraint that unfortunately will apply once the UK is outside,” the senior official said.
“The European arrest warrant is simply not available. I don’t think you can expect member states to change their constitutions in order to continue extraditing their nationals to the UK. [...]
Brussels says the best the UK can hope for is to conclude a separate extradition treaty with the EU, as well as bilateral agreements on procedures like intelligence sharing.


Yes, Germany (for instance).... why not change the non-extradition clause on nationals in your constitution, to make an exception for the UK?  8)

And note that  these are all problems that don't go away even if the UK opts for a soft Brexit....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 25, 2018, 06:28:20 AM
Brexit has been a mess in slow motion right from the start, but the iceberg is quickly coming into sight - with the engines running at full speed and a broken rudder.... With panic and anger as a result:

EU officials tear into UK’s ‘fantasy’ Brexit negotiating strategy as talks turn bitter (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-eu-customs-plan-northern-ireland-theresa-may-a8368101.html)

Some interesting point the EU made:

On the European space project Galileo, which was virulently opposed by the UK at its conception, but which it now wants not only to continue to use but also remain party to running it:

The EU says British demands to retain the same access to Galileo as a member state are unreasonable. Though officials say Britain could potentially still use the system, they do not want to give British defence firms the right to build or run parts of it because they say that would effectively give the UK, a third country, the power to turn off the EU system for member states.
Officials also pointed out that the UK itself had signed off the security rules restricting non-EU countries from running parts of system, as one of the 28 European Council members, before it knew it was going to leave.


On the European arrest warrant:

EU negotiators complain that the British side “do not understand” that Britain will not be able to use the European arrest warrant after Brexit, with Theresa May again having pledged to stay in the system just three months ago.
There are member states that simply cannot extradite their own nationals to a non-member of the EU. This is a constraint that unfortunately will apply once the UK is outside,” the senior official said.
“The European arrest warrant is simply not available. I don’t think you can expect member states to change their constitutions in order to continue extraditing their nationals to the UK. [...]
Brussels says the best the UK can hope for is to conclude a separate extradition treaty with the EU, as well as bilateral agreements on procedures like intelligence sharing.


Yes, Germany (for instance).... why not change the non-extradition clause on nationals in your constitution, to make an exception for the UK?  8)

And note that  these are all problems that don't go away even if the UK opts for a soft Brexit....

Q

I saw a bit of a select committee hearing yesterday at which the head of HMRC was being asked to provide detailed analysis of the "customs partnership" and " max fac" options, including questions such as when each option could realistically be operational. Both options have already been dismissed by the EU as non-starters, but you'd never guess that from watching this. Even now the cabinet is split over which one to go for, as if it mattered. The only "new" thinking appears to be a vague suggestion that maybe we could have a hybrid of the two, because clearly a hybrid of two non-starters is bound to be accepted by the EU. They really are utterly insulated from reality, but time is now running out fast and it won't be long before reality intrudes.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 25, 2018, 03:08:39 PM
Daniel Hannan was on Newsnight tonight. It was put to him that the reason the Brexit negotiations are such a shambles is that the Tory party is fundamentally split from top to bottom, including the cabinet, therefore the government simply cannot even work out what its position should be (let alone come up with a workable plan to implement said position). No, said Hannan, that's not the problem: the problem is that remainers in parliament are doing the EU's work for it by trying to stop Brexit, so there's no need for the EU to offer us a good deal. Isn't it great to see Brexiters taking responsibility for the consequences of their actions?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 25, 2018, 10:20:08 PM
The general feeling in other member states is that the political instability of the UK is increasingly likely to be an obstacle to come to any agreement: no divorce settlement, no transition deal, nothing... Increasing the chances of an immediate hard "cliff edge" exit.

Let's hope for a last minute transition deal (without a long term trade deal)....
If worse comes to worse, the EU might offer an extension of the negotiations. Which would be a political decision based on the expectations on the development of the political situation in the UK.
In either case, end of 2020 will be the real cut off date - because the EU is not going to drag this into the term of the new EU budget.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 27, 2018, 04:24:25 AM
He's at it again:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/27/jacob-rees-mogg-urges-may-to-revive-her-no-deal-threat-to-brussels (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/27/jacob-rees-mogg-urges-may-to-revive-her-no-deal-threat-to-brussels)

So we hold a gun to our own head and threaten to pull the trigger if the EU doesn't give us what the government wants (granted, the government still hasn't managed to decide what it wants, but never mind). "Give us what we want or the UK gets it" - the EU will be quaking in its boots at that one.

Rees Mogg makes as much sense as Alex Deane, a Brexiter who sometimes appears on BBC discussions, who said that the UK's solutions to the Irish border are perfectly reasonable and the EU needs to get real. Not the Brexiters, who spent years campaigning to get us out of the EU but never bothered to come up with a plan for how to do it if they won, and now blame "EU intransigence" when their desperate back of a fag packet "solutions" are exposed as unworkable. Oh no. They're not to blame. They're never to blame. It's the EU's fault.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 28, 2018, 12:52:04 AM
The general feeling in other member states is that the political instability of the UK is increasingly likely to be an obstacle to come to any agreement: no divorce settlement, no transition deal, nothing... Increasing the chances of an immediate hard "cliff edge" exit.

Let's hope for a last minute transition deal (without a long term trade deal)....
If worse comes to worse, the EU might offer an extension of the negotiations. Which would be a political decision based on the expectations on the development of the political situation in the UK.
In either case, end of 2020 will be the real cut off date - because the EU is not going to drag this into the term of the new EU budget.

Q

Similar comments in the Irish Times

Very different referendums raise concern for the Union.
Ideology rather than practical politics still dominates UK Brexit discourse
(https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/very-different-referendums-raise-concern-for-the-union-1.3510174)

Meanwhile, the adults at the Bank of England revealed this week they are preparing for a disorderly Brexit. They have, I think, spotted that the UK is drifting precisely towards that outcome. The Brexiteers know that if they can stop anybody actually doing anything, hard Brexit happens in a short while.

Fasten your seatbelts.....  ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on May 28, 2018, 10:07:55 AM

     In Britain, Austerity Is Changing Everything (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/world/europe/uk-austerity-poverty.html)

     Perhaps the link to Brexit has been made, but it seems that since Britain isn't subject to fiscal strangulation like Greece, Brits must do it themselves.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 28, 2018, 10:30:08 AM
     In Britain, Austerity Is Changing Everything (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/world/europe/uk-austerity-poverty.html)

     Perhaps the link to Brexit has been made, but it seems that since Britain isn't subject to fiscal strangulation like Greece, Brits must do it themselves.

The link to Brexit is that the referendum campaign was an exercise in persuading as many people as possible to blame "Brussels" for the problems mentioned in the article. It's abundantly clear that these are problems caused in Westminster, but unfortunately just enough people swallowed the Brexiters' crap and they got over the line. Ironically, many of the most hardline Brexiters are also the most enthusiastic supporters of Thatcherite/neoliberal economics in general and austerity in particular. So in persuading people to vote for Brexit they also managed to deflect the blame for the consequences of their own policies. And when Brexit goes tits up that will be spun as the EU's fault as well.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on May 28, 2018, 11:25:25 AM
The link to Brexit is that the referendum campaign was an exercise in persuading as many people as possible to blame "Brussels" for the problems mentioned in the article. It's abundantly clear that these are problems caused in Westminster, but unfortunately just enough people swallowed the Brexiters' crap and they got over the line. Ironically, many of the most hardline Brexiters are also the most enthusiastic supporters of Thatcherite/neoliberal economics in general and austerity in particular. So in persuading people to vote for Brexit they also managed to deflect the blame for the consequences of their own policies. And when Brexit goes tits up that will be spun as the EU's fault as well.

    That's pretty much how I interpret it. First you get austere economics, then smash the system politics, more austerity because budgets are more important than economic well being, and on and on.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 28, 2018, 01:55:57 PM
    That's pretty much how I interpret it. First you get austere economics, then smash the system politics, more austerity because budgets are more important than economic well being, and on and on.

On top of that you also have a UK media landscape which has been utterly dominated by the right for decades. Most of the printed press is rabidly right wing, and because they've largely succeeded in setting the agenda, the broadcasters  - which are supposed to be neutral - have largely followed that agenda, at least in terms of the issues that do and don't get much coverage. Labour under Blair got in largely because they made it clear they wouldn't rock the boat. So, we got some welcome measures like the minimum wage but also a continuation of the outsourcing of public services to corporate charlatans and the fundamental tenets of Thatcherism were left undisturbed. As a result it was easy for Cameron and Osborne to get rid of what bits of progress were made under Blair.

Now for the first time in decades we've got a major party leader, Corbyn, who is not willing to go along with this Thatcherite consensus. The media reaction has been entirely predictable, with one hysterical attempt at character assassination after another and shameless double standards in the reporting of policy: Corbyn says the government should invest to grow the economy, so we get a chorus of "but how will he pay for it?" - not a question that gets asked with so much urgency when the Tories give away truckloads of cash in tax cuts for corporations and wealthy individuals. This mendacious nonsense masquerading as journalism is now so normalised that we have parts of England which have never recovered from the devastating impact of Thatcherism now voting for the same party that screwed them in the first place because of Brexit, in the belief that Brexit will provide a refuge from globalisation - even though the leading Tory Brexiteers want Brexit precisely in order to give us neoliberalism on steroids. I think we can safely say this will not end well.       
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 28, 2018, 08:52:19 PM
I think we can safely say this will not end well.     

That looks increasingly likely....

I have been wondering what the EU could do to avoid the whole thing going of the cliff. Which would be devastating for the UK, very damaging for the EU (notably Ireland, Danmark, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium) and hurtful for a future relationship.

Apart from giving in to blackmail, buying time and hoping for a domestic political shift seems the best option.
The best situation would be if the UK signs a transition deal along the lines, including the NI backstop, that were agreed upon last December. Next option would be an extention of the negotiations. The problem with that is that is likely to continue the political deadlock in the UK. It would be a huge gamble. But then again, there is little to lose compared to the alternative....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 28, 2018, 09:20:41 PM
A classic "Dolchstoßlegende" (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth) - a myth on backstabbing treachery:


It’s time to challenge the conduct of some civil servants over Brexit (https://brexitcentral.com/time-challenge-conduct-civil-servants-brexit/) (Brexit Central).

Potentially powerful and dangerous stuff.... If I were a (higher ranking) British civil servant, I would be looking for employment elsewhere... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ahinton on May 28, 2018, 10:56:30 PM
A classic "Dolchstoßlegende" (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth) - a myth on backstabbing treachery:


It’s time to challenge the conduct of some civil servants over Brexit (https://brexitcentral.com/time-challenge-conduct-civil-servants-brexit/) (Brexit Central).

Potentially powerful and dangerous stuff.... If I were a (higher ranking) British civil servant, I would be looking for employment elsewhere.
But presumably not in Italy...

On top of all the mess that the UK government has gotten UK into over "Brexit", just how embarrassing will it be if, by the close of the so-called "transition period" and after spending vast sums on "Brexit", there will no longer be an EU from which to "Brexit"?...
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on May 29, 2018, 03:50:36 AM
That looks increasingly likely....

I have been wondering what the EU could do to avoid the whole thing going of the cliff. Which would be devastating for the UK, very damaging for the EU (notably Ireland, Danmark, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium) and hurtful for a future relationship.

Apart from giving in to blackmail, buying time and hoping for a domestic political shift seems the best option.
The best situation would be if the UK signs a transition deal along the lines, including the NI backstop, that were agreed upon last December. Next option would be an extention of the negotiations. The problem with that is that is likely to continue the political deadlock in the UK. It would be a huge gamble. But then again, there is little to lose compared to the alternative....

Q

As damaging as a no deal Brexit would be, I'm starting to wonder if it's the only thing that will provoke an outbreak of rationality. If we get a hard Brexit and the disastrous impact is felt quickly, it's more likely that the public will associate that impact with Brexit than a scenario in which we get some kind of deal which is pretty poor and ends up doing similar damage, but over a longer period of time and much more gradually. The latter would be the frog in boiling water scenario.

There is the obvious risk I mentioned before: that a disastrous impact which happens quickly would be blamed on the EU. But we'd just have to hope that enough people, especially leave voters, would see through that and pin at least some of the blame on Brexit itself. The alternative is little better: if we get anything less than the hardest of hard Brexits, we'll be told that any adverse effects are due to not getting a sufficiently hard Brexit, and if only we'd gone for the Farage/Rees-Mogg option then everything would be fine. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on May 29, 2018, 09:32:03 PM
But presumably not in Italy...

On top of all the mess that the UK government has gotten UK into over "Brexit", just how embarrassing will it be if, by the close of the so-called "transition period" and after spending vast sums on "Brexit", there will no longer be an EU from which to "Brexit"?...

I wouldn't count my chicken before they are hatched..... :D

Contrary to the UK, almost nobody in Italy really wants to leave the EU....

These populist parties (kind of) want to leave the euro, so they can spend themselves blind while already sitting on the 2nd largest debt in Europe (after Greece). Extra spending is however unlikely to help much, since Italy has failed to reform its economy.
Leaving the euro is theoretically possible, and it wouldn't necessarily lead to a collapse of the euro. What it definitely would do, is an immediate abondoning of Italy by the financial markets and a subsequent collapse of its economy. Nobody is going to lend Italy all that money to spend flush down the toilet after it has left the euro.

The idea of European Union falling apart is probably wishful thinking....  8)
Sofar in its history, every crisis in the EU was a trigger for further reform and strengthing of integration.

This time a reform of the eurozone and debt restructuring are on the table.... The need of reform has been opposed by southern member states, and Germany has sofar blocked any restructuring of debt. The Italian crisis might trigger both....and the EU could come out stronger....

Never waste a good crisis... ;)

https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/stelter-in-den-medien/will-italy-spell-the-end-of-the-euro/

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 01, 2018, 11:34:02 PM
History tells us that you've reached a turning point when paranoia sets in:

THE SUN SAYS A global plot to destroy Brexit must be fought by Government and all MPs to defend our democracy (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6433594/global-plot-destroy-brexit-fought-government-mps-democracy/)

Warning: the links takes you to a British tabloid, pursue at your own risk

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 02, 2018, 03:28:03 AM
History tells us that you've reached a turning point when paranoia sets in:

THE SUN SAYS A global plot to destroy Brexit must be fought by Government and all MPs to defend our democracy (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6433594/global-plot-destroy-brexit-fought-government-mps-democracy/)

Warning: the links takes you to a British tabloid, pursue at your own risk

Q

I particularly enjoyed a paper owned by Rupert Murdoch complaining about a rich foreigner meddling in British politics.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 02, 2018, 03:05:27 PM
A peach of an article here about a frustrated Tory donor who wants to replace May with Gove:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/02/replace-theresa-may-with-michael-gove-tory-donor-says-brexit-uk-news
 (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/02/replace-theresa-may-with-michael-gove-tory-donor-says-brexit-uk-news)

This bit is a cracker:

Quote
Odey, whose most recent donation to the Conservative party was a £50,000 gift before last year’s general election, said the government needed to be far bolder in its attitude to Brussels. It should be learning from the new Italian populist coalition government, which has plans that would defy EU rules on debt, he said, suggesting that Britain should start breaching EU rules by pursuing policies such as signing trade deals. He also backed a change in leadership.

“We’ve got to have that self-confidence to make breaches,” he told the Observer. “There’s no point in voting for freedom if you don’t know what to do when you’re free."

So acting illegally is "self-confidence". This is terrific news: if I am ever accused of breaking the law, I shall inform the arresting officer that I am merely showing the self-confidence to strike out in a new direction of my own choosing.

This bit is almost as good:

Quote
“We should say, ‘we’ve got to have life after this, so we’re creating that life. We are creating trade agreements which are in breach of everything, because we won’t be in breach by the time you come to take us to court’. That’s how Elizabeth I would have been leading with this.”

Wise words indeed. Because when you're trying to work out how to conduct complex negotiations in the 21st century, the first test you should apply is to ask yourself what an absolute monarch who died over four centuries ago would do. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 06, 2018, 04:18:04 PM
Interesting article here on Labour's Brexit policy:

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/06/06/ok-so-what-the-bloody-hell-is-labour-s-brexit-policy-now (http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/06/06/ok-so-what-the-bloody-hell-is-labour-s-brexit-policy-now)

I can well believe that right wing Labour MPs like Caroline Flint would have scuppered any chance of the EEA amendment passing while letting Corbyn take the flak for it. There were apparently quite a few MPs at a recent PLP meeting saying they wouldn't vote for the EEA, though that was not widely reported.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 07, 2018, 09:46:30 PM
While the UK is on the verge of a political "Brexit meltdown", the Germans offer a reprieve:

Wolfgang Schäuble: EU ‘ready to’ give UK more time on Brexit

Europe will do ‘whatever we can’ to have close relations with Britain post-Brexit, Germany’s former finance minister says.

(https://www.politico.eu/article/wolfgang-schauble-eu-ready-to-give-uk-more-time-on-brexit/)

It is a very generous offer, I would take it..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 08, 2018, 09:11:24 AM
While the UK is on the verge of a political "Brexit meltdown", the Germans offer a reprieve:

Wolfgang Schäuble: EU ‘ready to’ give UK more time on Brexit

Europe will do ‘whatever we can’ to have close relations with Britain post-Brexit, Germany’s former finance minister says.

(https://www.politico.eu/article/wolfgang-schauble-eu-ready-to-give-uk-more-time-on-brexit/)

It is a very generous offer, I would take it..... ::)

Q

We have a foreign secretary who thinks we should take a leaf out of Donald Trump's book in our approach to Brexit. I wouldn't bet on the UK doing much that is sensible. Though May might be grateful if the EU offered more time, since she appears to be a big fan of kicking crunch decisions down the road, and she's currently fast running out of road.

Brexit ultra Peter Bone on last night's Newsnight:

"We should just stop the negotiations and go to WTO terms, and we wouldn't have to put up a border in Northern Ireland."

It was then pointed out to him by Evan Davis (Newsnight presenter) that WTO terms require a border.

"No, they just require sincere cooperation."

Davis tried to correct him but Bone was on a roll:

"So, the legal situation.....oh I don't care, let's just come out."

So his solution is to stop negotiations and revert to WTO rules, while breaking WTO rules.

I know it's tempting to dismiss Bone as a lunatic, and so he is, but these people now wield huge influence in the Tory party. It can therefore be no surprise to anyone that Brexit is such a fiasco.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 08, 2018, 11:07:31 PM
While the Brexit process is descending into chaos, time for a more humorous approach...  ;)


Donald Trump does Brexit — it’s HUGE (https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-does-brexit-its-huge/)


Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 09, 2018, 03:49:49 AM
While the Brexit process is descending into chaos, time for a more humorous approach...  ;)


Donald Trump does Brexit — it’s HUGE (https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-does-brexit-its-huge/)


Q

We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 09, 2018, 06:03:28 AM
We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.
Churchill wouldn't have held the stupid referendum in the first place!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 09, 2018, 09:44:44 PM
Churchill wouldn't have held the stupid referendum in the first place!

From what I've read on his opinions on democracy: indeed, he would have been strongly against it. :)

We can laugh, but there are leave voters who would read that and nod vigorously in agreement - one example being the woman on Question Time who opined that what the UK needs to make Brexit a success is to channel the spirit of Churchill.

You're right, the whole situation is not funny. A lot of people, including many politicians, are completely clueless....

In the hope to cheer you up: I think a hard brexit is unlikely for the simple reason that it doesn't carry a majority - not in public opinion, not in parliament and not even in the Conservative party....

The best reflection of the referendum result - and probably current public sentiment as well - would be a (very) soft Brexit (customs union + internal market = "Norway plus").

The problem is that May's government will be unable to deliver that. And due to Corbyn, there might insufficient support in parliament to force her hand...

My prediction will be the collapse of the Tory govt and new general elections, on which occasion the EU will offer an extension of negotiations. Another option would a 2nd referendum, which would offer eurosceptic Corbyn a chance to wash his hands of the whole issue.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on June 10, 2018, 12:56:12 PM

     How a Journalist Kept Russia’s Secret Links to Brexit Under Wraps (https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-a-journalist-kept-russias-secret-links-to-brexit-under-wraps?source=articles&via=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedailybeast%2Farticles+%28The+Daily+Beast+-+Latest+Articles%29)

Leading Brexit campaigners have pulled out of a grilling by MPs after claiming they were being targeted in a "co-ordinated witch hunt" of Leave groups.

Arron Banks, a major funder of Leave.EU, and colleague Andy Wigmore had been due to appear before the influential Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee as part of its fake news inquiry, which is looking at the use of targeted online advertising.

However the pair dramatically pulled out of giving evidence on June 20 over their concerns and warned that the committee "comprises of only Remain supporting MPs".



     This sounds familiar to me. Why do people doing deals with Russians for politics or money or both all say the same thing? Why aren't they proud of what they have done and tell us what happened in all the meetings they held, who paid and who got paid and what for? Why is everyone involved in what will one day be BrexiPutin so shy? (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 11, 2018, 02:57:53 AM
You're right, the whole situation is not funny. A lot of people, including many politicians, are completely clueless....

In the hope to cheer you up: I think a hard brexit is unlikely for the simple reason that it doesn't carry a majority - not in public opinion, not in parliament and not even in the Conservative party....

The best reflection of the referendum result - and probably current public sentiment as well - would be a (very) soft Brexit (customs union + internal market = "Norway plus").

The problem is that May's government will be unable to deliver that. And due to Corbyn, there might insufficient support in parliament to force her hand...

My prediction will be the collapse of the Tory govt and new general elections, on which occasion the EU will offer an extension of negotiations. Another option would a 2nd referendum, which would offer eurosceptic Corbyn a chance to wash his hands of the whole issue.... ::)

Q

A hard Brexit would obviously be a disaster, but that's never stopped the Tory right before and it won't stop them now. If May sticks to her red lines then one version or another of hard Brexit is what we'll get: it would mean either a really bad deal, or no deal at all. If she gets something more like a soft Brexit that will lead to cries of betrayal and the ERG will probably trigger a leadership election in the hope of replacing her with someone more to their liking  - i.e. someone who would tear up a soft Brexit deal and give us a hard Brexit instead. If that means we crash out with no deal the ERG are fine with that.

What's so alarming is that we leave in nine months and the government is still negotiating with itself and its MPs rather than with the EU. It's easy to overlook the fact that the default position of A50 is that at the end of March we're out, whether we have a deal or not. If the current farce continues we won't even be close to concluding a deal in time, especially bearing in mind that in practical terms any deal needs to be concluded by around October to give the member states' parliaments and regional parliaments time to ratify it. In fact we're probably too late now anyway, having utterly wasted the two years since the referendum. I had thought that sanity might have started to assert itself by now, but there's no sign of it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 11, 2018, 02:11:30 PM
Even by current standards, today has been a stellar one for Brexit-related lunacy. Remember Crispin Odey, the Brexiteer hedge fund manager who recently said it was time to "have the self-confidence" to breach EU rules because that's what Elizabeth I would have done? Well he's been showing his confidence in Brexit by, er, betting against British businesses (it's a sign of how bad things are getting when you see a story like this in the Mail):

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html)

Quote
Odey’s apparent lack of confidence in flagship British firms stands in marked contrast to his fund’s investments in other countries, including France, Germany and the US, where he is mainly backing shares to rise.


The flamboyant fund manager, who once spent more than £100,000 on a chicken coop dubbed Cluckingham Palace at his Gloucestershire mansion, has given hundreds of thousands to campaigns backing Britain’s separation from the European Union including Global Britain and the Democracy Movement.

He is a longstanding supporter of fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, funding the Conservative MP’s Election campaign in 2015. In 2007, he also helped Rees-Mogg set up an investment firm of his own, Somerset Capital Management, which has virtually no investments in the UK, but large holdings in Russia.

In addition to its short positions against British shares, Odey Asset Management has taken a £150 million bet against the value of Government bonds.

Why can't these people just believe in Britain?


Then we had Jacob Rees-Mogg showing that Peter Bone isn't the only Brexit fanatic who doesn't seem to understand the very WTO rules they're apparently so keen on:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/11/rees-mogg-no-need-for-customs-checks-at-dover-in-no-deal-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/11/rees-mogg-no-need-for-customs-checks-at-dover-in-no-deal-brexit)

Quote
Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that there would be no need for customs checks at Dover on EU imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that any delays for exports to Europe would be France’s responsibility.

The leading Conservative party Brexiter said checks would not be needed because EU goods could be trusted.

However, his vision was immediately dismissed by legal experts as a breach of World Trade Organization rules because it would amount to discriminatory practice.

This was followed by an interview on LBC radio with Arron Banks, the financial backer of the Leave.EU campaign, on the subject of possible links between the campaign and Russia. Clearly, that's a serious subject which required an impeccably impartial interviewer. And who was that interviewer? Step forward Nigel Farage, friend of Arron Banks.

The crowning cherry on the idiot cake came on Newsnight, when Tory Brexiteer Andrea Jenkyns decried people "talking the country down" and said we should "make it clear we're willing to walk away with no deal". How could we do this? Well, Andrea thinks we have two trump cards to play: first, we tell the EU that over 17 million people voted for Brexit. Quite why the EU should be impressed by this, let alone why it would force them to change their position, is not clear. Second, we threaten not to pay the £39 million so-called "divorce bill", which is not a divorce bill at all, but an obligation to settle commitments already agreed to, which even the UK government has acknowledged. So if we shout "will of the people" at Michel Barnier while establishing a reputation as a country that can't be trusted to honour its commitments, we'll be fine.

Whoever said there's no plan? 



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Marc on June 11, 2018, 08:30:02 PM
If there ever was a moment in this century that the UK and EU should be/remain united instead of divided, it would be right now.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on June 11, 2018, 09:40:37 PM
If there ever was a moment in this century that the UK and EU should be/remain united instead of divided, it would be right now.
Totally agree with you.

Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 15, 2018, 02:56:04 PM

Another Exhausting, Agonizing Week of Brexit (https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/another-exhausting-agonizing-week-of-brexit) (The New Yorker)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 16, 2018, 12:34:44 AM
Royal Mail has been pushed by Brexiteers to issue stamps to commemorate Brexit.

It declined the idea, but look what happened to the newly issued series of stamps dedicated to the tv series "Dad's Army":

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8c2e384abec6ecad06e1400956a4fc168f3e4844/250_250_5392_3236/master/5392.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=53e7dd364f93c9b3d4efc846bd6608fe)

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/13AE0/production/_101980608_mediaitem101980605.jpg)

(https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/NINTCHDBPICT000412576592.jpg?w=960)

(https://blog.westminstercollection.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Dads-Army-stamps-product-images-5.png)


Well, the joke isn't lost on me - an epic display of British humour....  :D

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 16, 2018, 01:51:33 PM

Brexit is like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Stop talking down the slaughterhouse. Bloody Remoaner.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 19, 2018, 06:19:14 AM
https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1008998820754190336 (https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1008998820754190336)

Is there any price to pay for Brexit which would be too high? Apparently not.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 20, 2018, 04:40:19 PM
To the surprise of no-one, many of the pro-EU Tory "rebels" backed down after "winning" a feeble non-concession from the government - that's the government who lied to them just a week ago, but whose word they're still prepared to accept. So the "meaningful vote" on the final deal will presumably be a choice between whatever rotten deal May gets (assuming she gets one), or crashing out with no deal at all. In other words, it will be a choice between the guillotine or a firing squad. Meanwhile, the EU summit is almost upon us and there appears to be little if any progress on the outstanding issues - you know, minor details like the Irish border.

Just found this elsewhere - I've bolded the last line, as it's a real gem which eloquently encapsulates the lunacy of the Brexit negotiations:


Quote
Just to give you an idea of the levels of ignorance, incompetance and stupidity we are talking about, with the entire aviation threatened to be grounded by March, the government are (only now) recruiting a:

Head of Aviation EU Exit Negotiations
Leading on the overall negotiating position on aviation for the Government, your duties will include:
• establishing, leading and managing the core aviation negotiating team, and ensuring its close coordination with existing policy and legislation teams
• overseeing negotiations with the EU on the future of our aviation safety and airspace relationships
• contributing to the formulation and implementation of the UK’s future aviation strategy and development of related legislation and policies
Prior knowledge of airspace and the aviation sector is an advantage but not necessary.

You really couldn't make this up.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on June 26, 2018, 02:02:20 PM
It turns out the anti-Brexit conspiracy is even more widespread than we thought - even the US embassy is in on it too:

https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1011636382786314240 (https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1011636382786314240)

The analysis is both depressing and brutally accurate.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on June 27, 2018, 08:54:53 PM
The analysis is both depressing and brutally accurate.
The whole documentary - Inside the American Embassy - looks fascinating. Also, because the Trumpian ''policy'' is to destroy European cooperation and support anti-democratic movements, but inside the American Embassy they openly discuss the disaster Brexit brings: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/inside-the-american-embassy
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: k a rl h e nn i ng on June 29, 2018, 05:56:08 AM
You lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas . . .

‘Bad Boys of Brexit’ forged ties with Trump’s campaign and Russia — and came under scrutiny (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-the-bad-boys-of-brexit-forged-ties-with-russia-and-the-trump-campaign--and-came-under-investigators-scrutiny/2018/06/28/6e3a5e9c-7656-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html?utm_term=.a99f6c96132a)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on June 30, 2018, 11:49:28 PM
My thoughts exactly:

Britain now has 3 Brexit options: capitulate, crash, or extend (https://jonworth.eu/britain-now-has-3-brexit-options-capitulate-crash-or-extend/)

Rumour has it that May wants to move towards a soft Brexit. But that might trigger her fall, since Tory Brexiteers evidently want to crash out of the EU...

My money is on an extension till end of 2020, basically "absorbing" the time that was designated to be a transition period into the negotiations.

Since neither Tories nor Labour seem able to resolve their internal divisions on Brexit, I am not ruling out the possibility of a 2nd referendum...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: drogulus on July 01, 2018, 06:27:47 AM

     The Other Russia Collusion Scandal Is Breaking Wide Open (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/06/the-british-russia-collusion-scandal-is-breaking-wide-open.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on July 01, 2018, 11:11:17 AM
I am reminded of Gregor von Rezzzori's book The Snows of Yesteryears.

One of the author's aunts, confronted with the Austrian/German post-1918-19 debacle, stated: Just do whatever you want, gentlemen, our world is doomed anyway, let the Devil take care of it all.





Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 01, 2018, 02:17:21 PM
My thoughts exactly:

Britain now has 3 Brexit options: capitulate, crash, or extend (https://jonworth.eu/britain-now-has-3-brexit-options-capitulate-crash-or-extend/)

Rumour has it that May wants to move towards a soft Brexit. But that might trigger her fall, since Tory Brexiteers evidently want to crash out of the EU...

My money is on an extension till end of 2020, basically "absorbing" the time that was designated to be a transition period into the negotiations.

Since neither Tories nor Labour seem able to resolve their internal divisions on Brexit, I am not ruling out the possibility of a 2nd referendum...

Q

I'm not even sure that "extend" will be an option for much longer, at least not if it means "kick the can down the road yet again". They've been doing that for the last two years, and the reason is simple: the divisions in the cabinet and the Tory party are so fundamental that it's pretty well impossible to see how the chasm could be bridged. Kicking the can down the road again seems pretty pointless, since it's not going to resolve that basic problem - they'd just waste even more time and still be faced with the same divisions. If the language used by Tusk and others after last week's summit is any guide, the EU is fast losing patience with this incessant prevarication.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 02, 2018, 08:23:52 AM
I'm not even sure that "extend" will be an option for much longer, at least not if it means "kick the can down the road yet again". They've been doing that for the last two years, and the reason is simple: the divisions in the cabinet and the Tory party are so fundamental that it's pretty well impossible to see how the chasm could be bridged. Kicking the can down the road again seems pretty pointless, since it's not going to resolve that basic problem - they'd just waste even more time and still be faced with the same divisions. If the language used by Tusk and others after last week's summit is any guide, the EU is fast losing patience with this incessant prevarication.

All perfectly valid points!  :)

The EU wouldn't want to be responsible for keeping the current UK govt in the saddle, because that has been and probably will be a recipe for disaster. And it wouldn't want to get this issue out of the way instead of dragging it any further. For the EU any (acceptable) deal is therefore preferable to an extension: Canada type or any other.

The problem is a no deal crash: that will be so economically damaging - to the EU - that a simple delay of one a half years could save millions, if not billions. Even if there still would be a crash at the end of the road. More time to prepare and divert lines of supply and demand. Meanwhile the UK economy will continue to slip down, as is already the case. Another advantage is that it will solve the problem of the current EU budget.

So yes, it will a big loss of face and continue the agony, but even the Germans are willing to swollow the pride...
Of course the EU is going to wait till the very last minute and the UK has to ask for it. And naturally the fall of the UK govt before that moment would be the preferable scenario, so that the extended negotiations could be conducted with a new govt.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 02, 2018, 03:13:07 PM
All perfectly valid points!  :)

The EU wouldn't want to be responsible for keeping the current UK govt in the saddle, because that has been and probably will be a recipe for disaster. And it wouldn't want to get this issue out of the way instead of dragging it any further. For the EU any (acceptable) deal is therefore preferable to an extension: Canada type or any other.

The problem is a no deal crash: that will be so economically damaging - to the EU - that a simple delay of one a half years could save millions, if not billions. Even if there still would be a crash at the end of the road. More time to prepare and divert lines of supply and demand. Meanwhile the UK economy will continue to slip down, as is already the case. Another advantage is that it will solve the problem of the current EU budget.

So yes, it will a big loss of face and continue the agony, but even the Germans are willing to swollow the pride...
Of course the EU is going to wait till the very last minute and the UK has to ask for it. And naturally the fall of the UK govt before that moment would be the preferable scenario, so that the extended negotiations could be conducted with a new govt.

Q

The damage that no deal would do to the EU would be significant, but for the UK it would be utterly catastrophic. That means the UK has a lot more to lose and the EU knows it, so they also know the UK will have to blink first (unless much of the Tory party is now completely insane, which is possible).

You're right that the EU will want an acceptable deal ASAP, but the problem is that even at this late stage the UK government doesn't seem to grasp what the EU defines as acceptable. It means a deal with no cherry picking, especially where the four freedoms are concerned, and nothing which undermines the single market, yet Friday's cabinet meeting is apparently going to be presented with a third customs option which proposes staying in the single market for goods but not services, while also leaving the customs union. The talk here is of whether May will be able to get her cabinet to sign up to it, even though the EU has already said it's not a runner. The usual response to that is "oh well they would say that, this is a negotiation, they'll back down at the last minute". Maybe, but I wouldn't put money on it. Meanwhile we have the Irish border issue to solve and Rees Mogg warning that May will split the party if she fails to deliver the One True Brexit. So it's all going smoothly.   

It would seem that the only realistic options are a hard Brexit, or Norway Plus, i.e. CU + SM membership. When May finally decides which one to go for the faeces will be on a collision course with the fan.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 06, 2018, 09:42:37 PM
So, May's so called "soft" Brexit is a UK-EU free trade area for goods.

Brexit: Theresa May, Cabinet agree to UK-EU free trade area for goods (https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-theresa-may-cabinet-agree-to-uk-eu-free-trade-area-for-goods/a-44563350)

It is basically the internal market minus the free movement - and regulatory  alignment - of services, capital and people (labour). Without supervision by the EU Court of Justice....

Oh, and according to the UK govt, this will resolve the NI border issue... I think not... ::)

The EU has defended the indivisibility and integrity of the internal market right from the start of the negotiations: no internal market à la carte, no cherry picking.... And what does the UK govt come up with?  ::)

Not only is it unlikely for the EU to agree with such a scheme, it leaves services as the biggest chunk of UK-EU trade relations out in the dark. This seems mainly to be designed to persuade car and plane manufacturers to stay and prevent empty supermarkets after Brexit day... I highly doubt if this scheme would persuade manufacturers to stay - the underlying principle of the internal market is that all its elements are economically interconnected.

Conclusion: another fudge, of which Brexiteers assumed that it will be rejected by the EU - so that they can put the blame there.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 07, 2018, 05:12:15 AM
So, May's so called "soft" Brexit is a UK-EU free trade area for goods.

Brexit: Theresa May, Cabinet agree to UK-EU free trade area for goods (https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-theresa-may-cabinet-agree-to-uk-eu-free-trade-area-for-goods/a-44563350)

It is basically the internal market minus the free movement - and regulatory  alignment - of services, capital and people (labour). Without supervision by the EU Court of Justice....

Oh, and according to the UK govt, this will resolve the NI border issue... I think not... ::)

The EU has defended the indivisibility and integrity of the internal market right from the start of the negotiations: no internal market à la carte, no cherry picking.... And what does the UK govt come up with?  ::)

Not only is it unlikely for the EU to agree with such a scheme, it leaves services as the biggest chunk of UK-EU trade relations out in the dark. This seems mainly to be designed to persuade car and plane manufacturers to stay and prevent empty supermarkets after Brexit day... I highly doubt if this scheme would persuade manufacturers to stay - the underlying principle of the internal market is that all its elements are economically interconnected.

Conclusion: another fudge, of which Brexiteers assumed that it will be rejected by the EU - so that they can put the blame there.

Q

Yes, it might be a soft Brexit for about 20% of the economy, but for the other 80%? Not so much. And even if we assume that the "plan" for the 20% is both workable and acceptable to the EU (two rather large assumptions to say the least), for the other 80% it's clearly cherry picking as usual, which the EU has been saying for the last two years is a non-starter. So either May agrees to SM + CU membership, ECJ jurisdiction and freedom of movement - either literally, or possibly rebranding those things with shiny new names but still amounting to the same thing in practice - or we get a hard Brexit.

Even if the EU were to accept this fudge - and like you, I'll be amazed if that happens given that it would contradict everything Barnier has said for the last two years - it's still unlikely it would get through the Commons. Most Labour MPs and the smaller parties would probably vote against it for not being a soft enough Brexit, while Bertie Wooster and his ERG chums are already saying that this isn't really Brexit, so they wouldn't support it either.

With delicious irony, the Daily Mail comments section currently appears to consist largely of hardline leavers crying betrayal and explicitly stating that they now hope the EU tells May where to stick it, so we can leave with no deal and trade on WTO terms!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 07, 2018, 06:13:00 AM
“We will try to receive it as well as possible but from what we understand it is still a carve-out of the single market,” said the source, describing May’s proposed single market for goods as “a lot of fudge with a cherry on top”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/07/eu-diplomats-theresa-may-brexit-compromise

Yep....  8)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 07, 2018, 11:25:46 PM
On the Brexit blog by Richard North:

Brexit: a dog's breakfast (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86925)

He seems to assume there will be a hard Brexit with a possible transition period.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 08, 2018, 05:36:14 AM
On the Brexit blog by Richard North:

Brexit: a dog's breakfast (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86925)

He seems to assume there will be a hard Brexit with a possible transition period.

Q

He may well be right. If the EU rejects May's proposal - and given the blatant cherry-picking involved I don't see how it could possibly accept it - the narrative will be that we bent over backwards to compromise, while the EU was intransigent and only interested in punishing us. So hey, we did try to get a deal, but the EU wasn't interested. We then presumably head for a hard Brexit unless failure to reach a deal produces a major swing against Brexit in public opinion.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 08, 2018, 04:56:38 PM
David Davis and two other Brexit ministers have resigned - that's three ministers out of five. Perhaps the Department for Exiting the EU should be renamed the Department for Exiting the Department for Exiting the EU.

When this farce first started there was speculation the EU would set out to make an example of the UK in order to discourage other countries from considering leaving. As it is, there's been no need to - the UK has done that very effectively itself. Comparing the way the EU has handled it with our government's conduct is just embarrassing. It's like a full strength Barcelona playing a pub team whose players don't even understand the rules of the game but are still convinced they're going to win. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 08, 2018, 09:06:32 PM
This is shocking.... ???

When after two years the UK govt finally picks a strategy, it starts falling apart....

It seems the pub team, after just standing there in the field, arguing amongst themselves and randomly trying to kick back balls that came in its direction, has decided to head back for the pub!  :D

All the EU now has to do is sit tight and wait for things to unfold. The approach of not rejecting the free market for goods scheme right out of hand and give off mildly positive and encouraging signals, proofs to be a very clever one.

Q

PS Everybody ready for the sequel to this drama, in which Jeremy Corbyn tries to get a à la carte internal market sans competition (= state aid) rules?  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 08, 2018, 10:58:07 PM
Total shambles.

You couldn't make it up.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 09, 2018, 09:57:23 PM
Total shambles.

You couldn't make it up.

Indeed. The bizarre course of the Brexit process has exceded my wildest expectations....  ???

But someone needs to do something about it pretty soon, or else all the initial Titanic jokes will become a grim reality!  :(

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on July 10, 2018, 04:11:29 AM
'The Brexiteers — led largely by Mr. Johnson — sold the country a series of lies in the lead up to the June 2016 referendum ... because neither Mr. Johnson nor his fellow leader of the Leave campaign, Michael Gove, intended, wanted or expected to win. Because they were confident that the Leave campaign was a hopeless cause, they were free to make ridiculous claims that they had no expectation of ever having to fulfill.'
www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
And of course they're not leaving the sinking ship now in order to protest, let alone to really fight for a 'hard' Brexit, but because they know that any type of Brexit will be a disaster and they want to escape responsibility.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on July 10, 2018, 05:26:18 AM
'The Brexiteers — led largely by Mr. Johnson — sold the country a series of lies in the lead up to the June 2016 referendum ... because neither Mr. Johnson nor his fellow leader of the Leave campaign, Michael Gove, intended, wanted or expected to win. Because they were confident that the Leave campaign was a hopeless cause, they were free to make ridiculous claims that they had no expectation of ever having to fulfill.'
www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
And of course they're not leaving the sinking ship now in order to protest, let alone to really fight for a 'hard' Brexit, but because they know that any type of Brexit will be a disaster and they want to escape responsibility.

Yes I agree - my mind recalls this entertaining, though increasingly prophetic, spoof (foul language):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on July 10, 2018, 05:44:15 AM
Not foul enough, I think.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 10, 2018, 08:09:06 AM
Reminds me of the comment my (American) wife made on the night Donald Trump was elected president:

"This is going to be a sh*t show of EPIC proportions...."

Q


PS Is this another case of "be careful what you wish for"?  ::)


EU negotiator Michel Barnier says 80% of Brexit deal is agreed
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/10/eu-michel-barnier-brexit-deal-four-fifths-agreed)

Is the EU going to agree to any remotely acceptable proposition by the UK govt, just to get rid of the issue?  ::)
I"m afraid that would reflect the mood in many European capitals....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Alek Hidell on July 10, 2018, 11:18:14 AM
Reminds me of the comment my (American) wife made on the night Donald Trump was elected president:

"This going to be a sh*t show of EPIC proportions...."

Q

Yep. It's been most enlightening to read through this thread from here in the U.S. where the Trump clown show heedlessly trudges on (I had not previously read much at all on Brexit and had only the vaguest notions of what's at stake, though from the start I figured it was a grave error) and be struck by how frighteningly similar our political situations are. Reactionaries with a contempt for "experts" and no actual plan or ability to govern, pie-in-the-sky promises that can never be kept (and when they fail to materialize, chalking it up to a failure of nerve), willfully ignorant voters responding to phony populism and nationalist yammering and thinking their vote was simply a "lark" with no real-world consequences, and even Russian meddling ... boy, the Brits have it all too.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on July 10, 2018, 12:06:03 PM
Europe will see both sides of Trump in the coming days. He’ll roar and threaten in Brussels, then coo and meow in Moscow.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 10, 2018, 03:08:31 PM
Reminds me of the comment my (American) wife made on the night Donald Trump was elected president:

"This is going to be a sh*t show of EPIC proportions...."

Q


PS Is this another case of "be careful what you wish for"?  ::)


EU negotiator Michel Barnier says 80% of Brexit deal is agreed
(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/10/eu-michel-barnier-brexit-deal-four-fifths-agreed)

Is the EU going to agree to any remotely acceptable proposition by the UK govt, just to get rid of the issue?  ::)
I"m afraid that would reflect the mood in many European capitals....

Q

I think "remotely acceptable" are the key words there. If the EU doesn't compromise on cherry-picking the four freedoms for member states, I can't see why they would do so for a third country. Reports in the UK media over the last few days have stated that EU sources have said that they don't want to be seen to immediately shoot down the Chequers position for fear of weakening May even further and making an already difficult situation even worse. So the public tone is more positive and the EU may try to move a bit where it can. But after Barnier's recent remarks about the fundamental importance of the single market I cannot imagine they are going to compromise on that, in which case either May has to give more ground or we get no deal.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 10, 2018, 03:28:53 PM
Yep. It's been most enlightening to read through this thread from here in the U.S. where the Trump clown show heedlessly trudges on (I had not previously read much at all on Brexit and had only the vaguest notions of what's at stake, though from the start I figured it was a grave error) and be struck by how frighteningly similar our political situations are.

It is indeed uncanny, but at least you have a chance to vote Trump out. How we get out of the Brexit mess I have no idea.

Quote
Reactionaries with a contempt for "experts" and no actual plan or ability to govern

The "no actual plan" part is especially staggering, because Brexit is the biggest political upheaval in the UK in living memory and many of the leading Brexiters have been campaigning for Brexit for years - decades in some cases. And yet, despite that they have never bothered to produce a rigorous, coherent, thoroughly researched plan explaining exactly what they want to achieve and how they think they can get there. They're great at meaningless slogans like "take back control" and crying betrayal at the drop of a hat. But ask them for a detailed plan and all you get is tumbleweed and the sound of crickets. Anyone who asks them to address the details and enormous problems of Brexit is then dismissed as a treacherous saboteur, one of those experts that can't be trusted, or both.

Quote
pie-in-the-sky promises that can never be kept (and when they fail to materialize, chalking it up to a failure of nerve)

Not only a failure of nerve, but also the result of fifth column Remainers sabotaging their precious Brexit. And yes, terms like "fifth column" and "saboteurs" are the sort of language in which this "debate" is conducted.
 
Quote
willfully ignorant voters responding to phony populism and nationalist yammering

To be fair, some leave voters voted leave out of a desperation to be heard, although the extent of that has been overplayed. There were plenty of more affluent voters who had no such excuse and still swallowed the bullshit.

Quote
and thinking their vote was simply a "lark" with no real-world consequences, and even Russian meddling ... boy, the Brits have it all too.

Indeed we do. It can't end well, and it wouldn't surprise me if it leads to the break-up of the UK, to say nothing of the economic impact.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 16, 2018, 09:55:28 AM
There was a time when the Brexiters told us that Brexit would lead us to the "sunlit uplands". And now? Well, if Soubry is to be believed, this is where we are:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1018896316590673920 (https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1018896316590673920)

How things change. If true - and it's plausible enough from a party which has form on declaring large scale job losses a price worth paying in pursuit of its agenda - they're willing to sacrifice the jobs of vast numbers of people on the altar of their own ideology. Though not their own jobs of course. Such stirring patriotism.

In other news, May has prevented the ERG staging a show of parliamentary strength by, er.....caving in to their demands. All the ERG amendments to the trade bill have been accepted, even though they leave May's position dead in the water. That's the way to prevent a defeat - surrender first. Flawless logic.

No deal may now be the most likely outcome. There doesn't seem to be a majority in parliament for any type of Brexit and the EU won't accept the Chequers position. Barring a miracle we appear to be utterly, utterly screwed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on July 16, 2018, 12:38:53 PM

No deal may now be the most likely outcome. There doesn't seem to be a majority in parliament for any type of Brexit and the EU won't accept the Chequers position. Barring a miracle we appear to be utterly, utterly screwed.

Frankly my money was on an extension of negotiations and a 2nd referendum or new general elections...

But I"m perplexed by UK politics... May has ruled out a referendum and keeps her government afloat by giving in to the hardliners.
A hard Brexit seems therefore indeed increasingly likely....  ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on July 16, 2018, 02:51:15 PM
Frankly my money was on an extension of negotiations and a 2nd referendum or new general elections...

But I"m perplexed by UK politics... May has ruled out a referendum and keeps her government afloat by giving in to the hardliners.
A hard Brexit seems therefore indeed increasingly likely....  ???

Q

You're certainly not alone in being perplexed by UK politics!

The fundamental problem is that despite the fact that Brexit has already turned into an utter shitshow before we've even left - and will do so even further once the EU makes it clear that it won't accept the Chequers position - and despite the fact that the Brexiters' promises have evaporated on contact with reality, most leave voters are still convinced it's going to be great. You would think that the way it's going would give them pause for thought, but it hasn't. There was an article in the Guardian a few days ago which summed it up: a leave voter stated he believed Brexit would not cause damage, because, as he put it, "my faith is strong". That's what Brexit now seems to be - it's more like a fervent religious belief based on blind faith rather than a rationally thought through political position. The only reaction of such people to the ongoing farce is "just get on with it". They don't want to know about the details or complexities of Brexit, they just want to leave. If it's running into trouble it must be because the "metropolitan/liberal elite" or "remainer establishment" is trying to undermine it - it can't possibly be because Brexit itself is a really bloody stupid idea. They really are like a man who jumps off a cliff and says "so far so good!" because he hasn't hit the ground yet.

This should not really be too surprising: I said above that one of the most extraordinary things about the Brexiters is that they've spent years campaigning for the biggest political upheaval in Britain in living memory yet have never come up with a properly thought through, detailed plan explaining exactly how they think they can turn it into reality. That's no accident: they don't do detail, because if they did they would have to acknowledge the monumental problems and risks of Brexit. Coming up with a plan of their own would also mean they might be held accountable, and they have no intention of letting that happen. It's much easier to talk in empty platitudes and cry betrayal when someone else tries to come up with a workable plan for Brexit. If the leading Brexiters themselves don't do detail, accountability or responsibility, it's not that surprising that the same attitude is so prevalent among those taken in by their bullshit. Indeed, it seems merely asking them to produce a workable plan of their own is itself construed as an attempt to thwart Brexit by getting it bogged down in all that tiresome detail. The Irish border is the issue that sums it up - my experience is that they're not interested in it except insofar as it affects Brexit, and naturally  the problem must be Brussels using Ireland to hold us to ransom. It's definitely not because the Brexiters themselves never bothered to give it any thought. Oh no.

Until this situation changes, many politicians who can see what's coming when the ship hits the iceberg will continue to keep quiet for fear of being portrayed as "defying the will of the people", "saboteurs", "traitors", and so on. Even if we had a referendum tomorrow it's possible leave would win again, and even a remain win would be nowhere near convincing enough to settle the issue. Meanwhile millions of Brits are cheering on the iceberg.



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on July 18, 2018, 04:21:18 AM
My belief is strong, your execution is weak. Shame on you, and damn the facts.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 01, 2018, 12:37:20 AM
More news from Brexit-Britain, where the implications of a no deal hard Brexit are the talk of the day:

Brexit: panic is the right thing to do (http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86947)

In his blog Richard North IMO quite rightly downplays the risk of immediate shortages of food and medicines.
Any imports into the UK won't be hindered by Brexit per se - the countries of the EU will be happy to continue to export their products to the UK. The problem lies much more in obstacles to export goods and services from the UK to the EU.

The real crisis is and will be one of political incompetence and paralysis, hence his conclusion that it is time to panic...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 01, 2018, 04:18:40 AM
The old rhetoric about Brexit leading us to the "sunlit uplands" has now been replaced by assurances that there will be "adequate food". Good to know.

Meanwhile our new foreign secretary seems to be on a mission to prove he can be as much of a cockwomble as his not so illustrious predecessor. His "strategy" has been to say to the EU "you'd better blink first because we won't", while asking France and Germany to tell that nasty Mr. Barnier not to be so mean to us and give us a nice cushy deal. Barnier and the Commission are too inflexible apparently. Perhaps one of Hunt's civil servants can point out to him that Barnier was given his negotiating mandate by the member states. You know, like France and Germany.

In other news:

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104 (https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104) 

Yeah, fuck peace in Northern Ireland, we want our blue passports back. What a time to be alive.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 01, 2018, 08:54:28 AM
That the majority in the UK doesn't care about Northern Ireland anymore, is steadily becoming clear.

If the Irish Republic is smart, then after Brexit it will make the people of Northern Ireland an offer they can't refuse, and by international agreement they are entitled to a vote. Irish border problem solved...

Scotland might and the Chanel Islands will opt for (total) independence  (the latter can decide that unilaterally, without an referendum agreed by Westminster ). Gibraltar will probably compromise to save its skin, and agree to shared sovereignty with Spain.

Gina Miller, the advocate for parliamentary consent to the article 50 notice, has predicted a dismantling of the UK as a consequence of a hard Brexit. She might very well be right...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 01, 2018, 09:35:40 AM
That the majority in the UK doesn't care about Northern Ireland anymore, is steadily becoming clear.

If the Irish Republic is smart, then after Brexit it will make the people of Northern Ireland an offer they can't refuse, and by international agreement they are entitled to a vote. Irish border problem solved...

Scotland might and the Chanel Islands will opt for (total) independence  (the latter can decide that unilaterally, without an referendum agreed by Westminster ). Gibraltar will probably compromise to save its skin, and agree to shared sovereignty with Spain.

Gina Miller, the advocate for parliamentary consent to the article 50 notice, has predicted a dismantling of the UK as a consequence of a hard Brexit. She might very well be right...

Q

If Brexit turns out to be anything like as bad as it appears it's going to be, I'd certainly expect Scotland to vote for independence. In the 2014 referendum staying in the UK could be portrayed as the safer option, while independence was the leap in the dark. The latter might still be true, but it looks a lot more attractive if staying in the UK - and hence being stuck with a hard Brexit - looks certain to be a train wreck.

NI, not so sure. If you mean a united Ireland then it could happen, but the question arises of whether the Republic would want to join with NI. That's partly because NI is more heavily reliant on government spending than the rest of the UK, but also because you have to wonder if the Republic would want to take in a disgruntled minority led by the likes of Paisley Jr and the fragrant Arlene (especially given the Republic's liberal trajectory, which is in stark contrast to the more, er, "traditionalist" DUP).

Maybe if the arrangement were something short of a united Ireland then who knows. But any closer arrangement with the Republic, whether unification or something else, would mean some unionists abandoning their tribal loyalty, and in NI politics tribal loyalty is really tribal.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 01, 2018, 09:50:55 PM
Good points on NI...

It might get caught between a rock and a hard place....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 02, 2018, 01:56:29 AM
Good points on NI...

It might get caught between a rock and a hard place....

Q

Agreed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 02, 2018, 06:26:06 AM
That the majority in the UK doesn't care about Northern Ireland anymore, is steadily becoming clear.

The one thing that would make them care is if bombs started going off on the mainland again. But yes, apart from that, zero shits given.


There are reports that Germany might be willing to offer the UK a "blind Brexit", i.e. a deliberately vague deal designed to defer key decisions until after we've legally left the EU. This would allow May to save face and avoid a no deal scenario.

German sources have apparently denied these reports, and I hope they are indeed false. If a blind Brexit were to happen it's not hard to see what the consequences would be: the "meaningful vote" in parliament would be rendered meaningless, because you can't vote on a deal which doesn't exist. That would make it harder for the opposition parties to oppose it than a deal whose contents are known - especially if it were portrayed as a pragmatic move to give us more time. In reality the opposite would probably be the case: as soon as we'd left, the Brexit ultras would oust May and replace her with one of their own, who could then be relied on to fill in the details of a blind Brexit in a way which the ERG approves of, and there would be nothing pragmatic about that. That would be a disaster for the UK, and I'm not sure the EU would want a country led by Rees Mogg and co on its doorstep either.

 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 02, 2018, 08:51:26 AM
I understand the attractions of a "Blind Brexit" for the Germans and the rest of the EU.
It buys the necessary time to prepare better for a hard Brexit, and create possibilities for (further) damage control.
It also creates an extra window of opportunity at the UK side to avoid a hard Brexit.

But it is also a gamble. As you quite rightly point out, it can also keep destructive elements in UK politics in power, whether hard Tory Brexiteers or Jeremy Corbyn.

Although, if I am cynical: the possible downside of that gamble is for the UK far greater than for the EU. We are in all probability heading for a hard Brexit anyway, was has the EU to lose by buying extra time? It could save billions in economic damage.
What does happen in that scenario however, is giving up hope for a concession from the UK on Northern Ireland now, and probably indefinitely.... Which means NI is screwed unless by some miracle a hard Brexit is avoided, which brings us back to our previous topic...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 02, 2018, 02:10:28 PM
But it is also a gamble. As you quite rightly point out, it can also keep destructive elements in UK politics in power, whether hard Tory Brexiteers or Jeremy Corbyn.

I wouldn't bracket the Tory Brexit ultras with Corbyn. I'd like Corbyn to be more pro-EU, but a government led by him would sign up to a customs union with the EU and would not seek to diverge much from single market regulations. He would also be willing to do what is needed to avoid a border in Ireland (and if that pissed off the DUP I think we can safely assume he wouldn't mind too much). 

A government led by the likes of Rees Mogg or Johnson on the other hand....well, that's something else. No customs union, huge divergence from single market rules and an ultra-Thatcherite race to the bottom economic model, which is exactly what the EU has said it doesn't want to happen. Oh yeah, and sod the Irish border - government policy would be "well we don't want a border, if there is one it will be down to Ireland and the EU". Yes, that's complete bollocks, but that's what these lunatics are saying. A government of Tory hard Brexiteers is the worst outcome by far, both for the UK and the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 02, 2018, 10:42:05 PM
Oh, there is definitely a huge difference between Corbyn and Tory hard brexiteers!! But not where it counts....  ::)

But Corbyn is clearly anti-EU (https://www.markpack.org.uk/153744/jeremy-corbyn-brexit/), and I highly doubt if a Labour government under his leadership would have been much improvement compared to May. Thought that remains speculation....
The belated customs union offer was symbolic, and as has been established in many analyses, doesn't cut it.

Corbyn's major issue with the internal market, are its competition rules - which are at its very core - and its rules for public procurement in particular. Why spend money of the British taxpayer with foreign companies? Well, to get the best value for your money, for instance.... He also doesn't seem to understand that such a position would rule out any public contracts for UK companies anywhere in the rest of the EU as well. International agreements are reciprocal, you can't have it both ways.
In the end you restrict free competition without any economic gains... sounds like a swell idea...

And he doesn't like free movement of persons (labour) either. And I have sympathy for resisting the import of cheap labour. But in the case of the UK this was its own doing and a case of too late now to turn back the clock...
I'm wondering whether he accepts the ECJ?
Actually, he might be against the internal market altogether.... hence the customs union idea.

In this sense Corbyn is as deluded as any other Leaver...

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 03, 2018, 03:29:47 AM
Oh, there is definitely a huge difference between Corbyn and Tory hard brexiteers!! But not where it counts....  ::)

But Corbyn is clearly anti-EU (https://www.markpack.org.uk/153744/jeremy-corbyn-brexit/), and I highly doubt if a Labour government under his leadership would have been much improvement compared to May. Thought that remains speculation....
The belated customs union offer was symbolic, and as has been established in many analyses, doesn't cut it.

Corbyn's major issue with the internal market, are its competition rules - which are at its very core - and its rules for public procurement in particular. Why spend money of the British taxpayer with foreign companies? Well, to get the best value for your money, for instance.... He also doesn't seem to understand that such a position would rule out any public contracts for UK companies anywhere in the rest of the EU as well. International agreements are reciprocal, you can't have it both ways.
In the end you restrict free competition without any economic gains... sounds like a swell idea...

And he doesn't like free movement of persons (labour) either. And I have sympathy for resisting the import of cheap labour. But in the case of the UK this was its own doing and a case of too late now to turn back the clock...
I'm wondering whether he accepts the ECJ?
Actually, he might be against the internal market altogether.... hence the customs union idea.

In this sense Corbyn is as deluded as any other Leaver...

Q

He'd have to come off the fence he's currently sitting on if he were in power, though much of his 2017 manifesto could be implemented within existing EU rules. Nevertheless, it is indeed true that there would certainly be points of substantive disagreement between the EU and a Corbyn government. But the disagreements between the EU and an ERG government would be on another level, and the effect of that would be multiplied by the fact that the Tory Brexit ultras are motivated by an intense, visceral hatred of the EU which makes negotiations with them virtually impossible. They're still sometimes referred to as Eurosceptics but that isn't really correct - many of them are literally anti-European, as well as anti-European Union. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 04, 2018, 03:25:53 AM
As to Corbyn: he has a lot to answer for....
If Labour had a modern, centrist leader, the Tory govt might not have lasted this long.
By being who he is, and his tacit support of Brexit, he has already changed the course of history.

As to Brexit itself: it seems the option of another fudge/compromise on NI as a way to buy time by entering the fase of transition (to nowhere) is gathering momentum:

Quote
So there are ominous signs that we could end up with a compromise on the Irish border, which forms part of the withdrawal agreement, and a very vague political declaration about the future UK-EU relationship, which puts off the crucial decisions on market access and customs until the implementation (or transitional) period lasting from next March to December 2020.

Such a minimalist deal might prevent a meltdown this Autumn that would bring May down. She might win over enough Tory MPs to secure Commons approval for such a threadbare deal, in order to “get Brexit over the line” next March, as Michael Gove urges. It would avoid a cliff edge exit. 

It would be a good deal for the EU, which would bank the UK’s £40bn divorce payment – part of the withdrawal agreement. But it would be a bad deal for the British public. Again, Tory party management would trump the national interest. The UK will have very little leverage in the negotiations once it leaves the EU, and would have thrown away its trump card – the £40bn.  It might be money for nothing, since we would have little idea about our future trade links with the EU.

As the Tory peer and former Brexit minister George Bridges warned in January: "My fear is that we will get meaningless waffle in a political declaration...The implementation period will be not be a bridge to a clear destination; it will be a gangplank into thin air."

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-macron-brexit-chequers-eu-negotiations-a8476051.html

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 04, 2018, 06:06:35 AM
As to Corbyn: he has a lot to answer for....
If Labour had a modern, centrist leader, the Tory govt might not have lasted this long.
By being who he is, and his tacit support of Brexit, he has already changed the course of history.

If Labour had a "centrist" leader they'd still be as far behind the Tories in the polls as they were under Brown and Miliband, perhaps even further behind. It's the failures of Labour's self-styled "moderates" that caused the rise of Corbyn in the first place. They surrendered the intellectual arguments to the Tories, first by accepting the fundamentals of Thatcherite economics under Blair, then by accepting the austerity agenda and failing to challenge the myth that the crash was caused by Labour overspending. All of these could and should have been challenged, but they didn't do it, either because they didn't want to (Blair) or because they thought that it would backfire on them if they did (Miliband).

The calculation was that even if traditional Labour voters didn't like this drift ever further rightwards, they'd still vote Labour because they had nowhere else to go. It was a fatal mistake. First they were outflanked on the left by the SNP, which obliterated Labour in Scotland, one of the party's biggest power bases. But the drift to the right ultimately did them little good in England either. Even over the course of Blair's time they steadily lost support as their traditional voters, increasingly feeling ignored and taken for granted, stayed at home: they came to view New Labour and the Tories as two cheeks of the same arse. Those voters then became easy prey for UKIP, who did a good job of exploiting legitimate grievances and channelling that resentment into an anti-immigration sentiment - and by equating immigration with the EU, an anti-EU sentiment. By failing to challenge the nonsense that Labour spending too much on public services caused the crash, it turned out that, surprise surprise, they were blamed by much of the public for the crash: after all, if even Labour itself wasn't challenging this nonsense, then it must be true!

So it was that we ended up with a "moderate" Labour government extending the Thatcherite agenda of privatisation, "light touch" regulation on the financial sector - oh yes, and imposing a truly vicious new disability benefits system which was cynically designed to deprive as many vulnerable people as possible of the support they needed to keep their heads above water, and to hell with the human cost (which has proved to be dreadful). That the Tories were only too happy to support this and take it even further when they got back into power should tell you everything you need to know. When the Tories' austerity policies punished the victims of the crash instead of those that caused it, Labour's response was to agree. Oddly enough, "we'd implement austerity too, but we'd try not to look as though we relish it as much as the Tories" didn't prove to be wildly popular.

The 2015 leadership election perfectly encapsulated what had gone wrong. The Tories had fought that year's general election on a manifesto which included a pledge of benefit cuts which were even more vindictive and regressive. They never thought they'd have to implement it as Cameron expected another hung parliament. Then he won a small majority and had to do it. Corbyn opposed the cuts unequivocally. The three "centrist" candidates wrung their hands instead. For many former Labour voters that confirmed just how badly the party had lost its way, and even for many who hadn't yet abandoned Labour, that was the last straw. Result: Corbyn won by a landslide.

The reaction of the "moderates" to Corbyn's rise has been very telling. From day one they've been happy to go running to the media (the Tory press included) to slag him off. But ask them to come up with a set of policies which could win back former Labour voters and it all goes a bit quiet. Despite having had control of the party for 13 years in government, then five more years in opposition under Miliband, Corbyn's rise appears to have prompted little or no critical self-reflection from the "moderates". No willingness to analyse where they went wrong or their consequent role in Corbyn winning the leadership, little effort at revitalising their moribund intellectual position, nothing. Corbyn's 2017 manifesto, while unremarkable social democracy by European standards, was certainly the most left wing Labour manifesto for a long time, and the centrists were horrified by it. They seemed to be even more horrified when it proved to be the turning point in the campaign because it was - shock, horror - popular. How could this be? This is precisely the sort of left wing nonsense which would guarantee Labour's electoral annihiliation - except it didn't happen. They still don't seem to understand why, or even want to understand why. Until they do they'll get nowhere.       



Quote
As to Brexit itself: it seems the option of another fudge/compromise on NI as a way to buy time by entering the fase of transition (to nowhere) is gathering momentum:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-macron-brexit-chequers-eu-negotiations-a8476051.html

Q

If they go for that it means no meaningful vote in parliament. It also means that after we leave some ERG-approved shitgibbon can fill in the details to give us the most deranged outcome possible. Is the EU really willing to have a country run by these maniacs on its doorstep?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 04, 2018, 10:44:03 PM
I'm not going into your comments on Labour, my knowledge on UK politics is too limted for that. But I've read your insights with much interest.  :)
I do get the impression that the first-past-the-post systems creates undesirable political dynamics.
In tbe Dutch system the major centrist parties, like the social democrats, are flanked by smaller parties to keep them on their toes.

If they go for that it means no meaningful vote in parliament. It also means that after we leave some ERG-approved shitgibbon can fill in the details to give us the most deranged outcome possible. Is the EU really willing to have a country run by these maniacs on its doorstep?

There wouldn't be a deal to vote on, apart from the divorce agreement.....

The problem is that there are not that many other options left besides a hard Brexit.
Concluding a trade deal within the deadline of two years was always doubtful, but seems impossible by now. Unless the UK suddenly goes for the Norway/EEA option, but even then. The UK could retract the article 50 notice and abandon Brexit altogether. Or it could ask for an extension, wich - I think - would only be agreed to by the EU in case of a 2nd referendum or a general election.

A hard Brexit now, not only has economic downsides to the EU, but political ones as well. The EU could be seen as pushing the UK off the cliff to punish it, or worse, to force a change in domestic politics. There would be a lot of serious damage that cannot be undone.

A "Blind Brexit" would at least keep the relationship between the EU and the UK afloat, in hope of better times.
Off course, a 2nd referendum or a parliamentary vote to force May's hand, would be a game changer. But either seems unlikely at the moment.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 05, 2018, 02:07:13 AM
I'm not going into your comments on Labour, my knowledge on UK politics is too limted for that. But I've read your insights with much interest.  :)
I do get the impression that the first-past-the-post systems creates undesirable political dynamics.
In tbe Dutch system the major centrist parties, like the social democrats, are flanked by smaller parties to keep them on their toes.

You're right about FPTP, it's now a clearly dysfunctional system. It means that the two main parties are coalitions in all but name. In the Tory party you have staunchly pro-EU people like Ken Clarke on the one hand, and on the other hand Brexit ultras like Rees Mogg. The old "one nation" Tories, who were largely in favour of the post-war consensus, have been pretty thin on the ground since Thatcher, but there are probably a few still around. There are few countries on the continent in which all these people would be in the same party.

It's a similar story with Labour. Blair and Corbyn would never be in the same party in most European countries, and I've heard several prominent Blairite commentators say they'd rather have a Tory government led by someone like Cameron than a left wing Labour government.

The other effect of FPTP is that it effectively disenfranchises millions of voters, because elections are decided by floating voters in marginal seats, even though they make up only a tiny sliver of the electorate. That was one factor in the Brexit referendum: all votes were equal in their impact on the result, so many people voted in the referendum who saw no point in voting in Westminster elections, which have often produced a House of Commons which was nowhere near an accurate reflection of how people voted.

It's also very hard for smaller parties to make an impact under FPTP, so it reinforces the system of two main parties. The supposed justification for this system is that FPTP guarantees government which is strong and stable (to coin a phrase) - in other words, governments with majorities big enough to get their legislation passed. Indeed, governments with big majorities can do more or less what they like without bothering to listen to dissent even on their own side. But even that argument has worn thin, with two of the last three elections producing hung parliaments and the other only a small majority for the Tories. There are also fewer marginal seats than there used to be, so hung parliaments or precariously small majorities appear set to be the norm for the foreseeable future. If anything good could come out of Brexit it would be to strain the two party system past breaking point and well and truly blow it up. I'm not holding my breath though.   


Quote
There wouldn't be a deal to vote on, apart from the divorce agreement.....

The problem is that there are not that many other options left besides a hard Brexit.
Concluding a trade deal within the deadline of two years was always doubtful, but seems impossible by now. Unless the UK suddenly goes for the Norway/EEA option, but even then. The UK could retract the article 50 notice and abandon Brexit altogether. Or it could ask for an extension, wich - I think - would only be agreed to by the EU in case of a 2nd referendum or a general election.

A hard Brexit now, not only has economic downsides to the EU, but political ones as well. The EU could be seen as pushing the UK off the cliff to punish it, or worse, to force a change in domestic politics. There would be a lot of serious damage that cannot be undone.

A "Blind Brexit" would at least keep the relationship between the EU and the UK afloat, in hope of better times.
Off course, a 2nd referendum or a parliamentary vote to force May's hand, would be a game changer. But either seems unlikely at the moment.

Q

Of the options you mention, a blind Brexit may be the most likely, simply because it allows us to avoid a no deal scenario - at least for the time being. The big issues can be deferred to the transition period, though it seems likely that we might still be faced with the distinct possibility of no deal when that period runs out. There's also the risk, as I said before, that once we're legally out at the end of March, May is ousted and replaced by the likes of Johnson or Rees Mogg. If that happens, no deal would be highly likely - zealots, by definition, are people who don't compromise on their ideological purity. If a blind Brexit gives us a government like that it will be a disaster for us, and not great for the EU either.   
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 05, 2018, 02:33:13 AM
A few days ago the governor of the Bank of England was accused by the Brexiters of indulging in "Project Fear" when he described the chance of no deal as "uncomfortably high". Liam Fox has now said it's the most likely outcome. So presumably they'll be accusing him of "Project Fear" as well. Or perhaps not.

EDIT: here's the article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/liam-fox-says-no-deal-brexit-now-more-likely-than-an-agreement (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/05/liam-fox-says-no-deal-brexit-now-more-likely-than-an-agreement)

You have to admire the sheer cheek of this bit:

Quote
Fox said: “It’s up to the EU27 to determine whether they want the EU commission’s ideological purity to be maintained at the expense of their real economies.”

That's a hardline Brexiter accusing the EU of putting ideological purity before economic benefits. Self-awareness is clearly not Fox's strong point.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 07, 2018, 10:02:23 PM
"Brexiternity": a never ending Brexit to nowhere...

Recommended reading:

Two false Brexit choices for Britain

Neither a no-deal Brexit nor a second referendum will solve the UK’s EU quandary
(https://www.politico.eu/article/two-false-choices-for-britain/)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 08, 2018, 02:29:37 PM
"Brexiternity": a never ending Brexit to nowhere...

Not so! Jacob Rees Mogg has assured us that we should know the full economic impact of Brexit in about 50 years.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 11, 2018, 10:17:25 PM
As we (in the UK) slide towards the 'No Deal' abyss the danger is that the government will ask for emergency powers and our democracy will be eroded, which I find very worrying.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on August 11, 2018, 10:26:44 PM
I have dual citizenship and so if the worst comes to the worst I'm moving across the water and next door to aligreto. He doesn't know this yet.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 11, 2018, 10:57:32 PM
Will have mine soon too and the three of us can form a commune!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: NikF on August 11, 2018, 11:07:52 PM
Sounds cool to me.  8) Let's not tell him - we'll just turn up unannounced.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 11, 2018, 11:18:54 PM
I have first dibs on his garden shed until my wife and I can find a place to live!  8)

Seriously, I had the pleasure of meeting Aligreto last year when we were in Ireland, and I'm sure he would make a great neighbor!

When we were on a bus from Dublin to Glendalough, there was a teenage Irish kid marveling at this one huge mansion: "WOW, that place is huge!! It is gorgeous! It must cost five hundred thousand Euros!!!"

Kid, in SoCal $500K will not buy you a one-square-foot shed to store a piece of rubber dogschit.

We are seriously considering it for retirement, although we may just end up on the West coast--Ennis or Kenmare, if that's not too impractical.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 12, 2018, 02:14:46 AM
I have first dibs on his garden shed until my wife and I can find a place to live!  8)

Seriously, I had the pleasure of meeting Aligreto last year when we were in Ireland, and I'm sure he would make a great neighbor!

When we were on a bus from Dublin to Glendalough, there was a teenage Irish kid marveling at this one huge mansion: "WOW, that place is huge!! It is gorgeous! It must cost five hundred thousand Euros!!!"

Kid, in SoCal $500K will not buy you a one-square-foot shed to store a piece of rubber dogschit.

We are seriously considering it for retirement, although we may just end up on the West coast--Ennis or Kenmare, if that's not too impractical.
In Kemare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: ritter on August 12, 2018, 03:06:37 AM
But we should advise XB-70 Valkyrie to be more careful than Moeran when on that pier... :D
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 12, 2018, 03:53:12 PM
As we (in the UK) slide towards the 'No Deal' abyss the danger is that the government will ask for emergency powers and our democracy will be eroded, which I find very worrying.

I think it's already been eroded. We don't yet know the full extent of the Leave campaign's links with Cambridge Analytica or Arron Banks' Russian connections, but we do know that the Leave campaign has been found guilty of breaking electoral law by the Electoral Commission - yet neither the government nor the Brexit-supporting press gives a toss. So they will get away with cheating and we'll still leave, despite the huge question mark over the integrity of the result. Perhaps the most novel argument in defence of this attitude is that "you can't prove that the cheating affected the result". So if you sit an exam, cheat, and get an A grade, don't worry if you get caught - just point out that no-one can prove that your cheating made any difference to your grade. In fact, be sure to state that you're 100% confident that even if you hadn't cheated you'd still have done just as well. According to Brexiter logic, this is a watertight defence.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 12, 2018, 03:54:38 PM
In Kemare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.

Did not know about that, but we did see the Kenmare stone circle and ate at the restaurant Tom Crean's granddaughter owns--some of the best seafood we've ever had!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 13, 2018, 01:57:54 AM
Did not know about that, but we did see the Kenmare stone circle and ate at the restaurant Tom Crean's granddaughter owns--some of the best seafood we've ever had!

Tom Crean, another great hero of mine - how exciting. Did you meet his granddaughter?

Some debate if Moeran had a heart attack and fell into the river or was drunk or possibly both.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 13, 2018, 01:59:20 AM
I think it's already been eroded. We don't yet know the full extent of the Leave campaign's links with Cambridge Analytica or Arron Banks' Russian connections, but we do know that the Leave campaign has been found guilty of breaking electoral law by the Electoral Commission - yet neither the government nor the Brexit-supporting press gives a toss. So they will get away with cheating and we'll still leave, despite the huge question mark over the integrity of the result. Perhaps the most novel argument in defence of this attitude is that "you can't prove that the cheating affected the result". So if you sit an exam, cheat, and get an A grade, don't worry if you get caught - just point out that no-one can prove that your cheating made any difference to your grade. In fact, be sure to state that you're 100% confident that even if you hadn't cheated you'd still have done just as well. According to Brexiter logic, this is a watertight defence.

Sadly what you say is very true.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Christo on August 13, 2018, 04:23:11 AM
In Kenmare you could visit the pier from which Moeran fell into the water to his death.
Saw the pier back in 1992, wish I'd known about Moeran then.  ???
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 13, 2018, 09:07:23 AM
It seems that May is well on course to Brexiternity....


May Weighs Brexit Fix that Keeps EU Rules for Longer (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/may-is-said-to-weigh-brexit-fix-that-keeps-eu-rules-for-longer) (Bloomberg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: XB-70 Valkyrie on August 13, 2018, 10:31:10 AM
Tom Crean, another great hero of mine - how exciting. Did you meet his granddaughter?

Some debate if Moeran had a heart attack and fell into the river or was drunk or possibly both.

We did not meet his granddaughter, but I will tell you the food was outstanding, like most of the food we had in Ireland. But this restaurant in particular was amazing. My wife said the oysters were the best she's ever had. After seeing the Kenmare Stone Circle, I ordered the scallops, and I received them arranged on my plate in pretty much the same pattern. The restaurant has a large image of Tom--not sure whether it was projected or an LED screen--we never got that close to it. I joked to my wife that I wasn't sure whether we needed to genuflect!

There is also a Tom Crean Beer, which we found only in the west and enjoyed several times along with our Guinness, Smithwick's, and Paddy (whisky).
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 14, 2018, 09:26:46 PM
A striking analysis from Germany (Deutsche Welle):

Quote
Brexit has reached a dead end

Brexit is on the negotiating table yet again in Brussels. With no alternative in sight, the UK is staggering aimlessly toward the day it will ultimately leave the European Union, says Bernd Riegert, DW's correspondent in Brussels.

The UK's Brexit negotiations with the European Union are at an impasse — that's according to Prime Minister Theresa May. In a letter to her own divided Conservative party, she admits that, surrounded by red lines she is not allowed to cross, she can neither push ahead nor turn back. Brexit can't be too soft or too hard, or else the various parties and the EU will be unable to reach an agreement.

Brussels has rejected May's latest proposal, which would have meant negotiating a kind of free trade area only for goods. Just 11 percent of UK citizens liked that plan, according to opinion polls. Negotiations resume in Brussels this week. However, the teams accompanying EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK's Brexit minister, Dominic Raab, wonder what they will be negotiating.

There are no viable proposals either on trade issues or the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The British government is set on a vague statement about its future relationship with the EU. However, Brussels is insisting on a concrete exit treaty that would at least finalize essential questions regarding finances, borders and civil rights. It is clear that time is getting short. A Brexit deal is supposed to be in place by the end of October. That is tight.

Up until now, the British have negotiated by playing dead and only coming up with something substantial and concrete at the very last moment, but that is not likely to work this time around. May's attempt to split the EU with charm offensives in Paris and Berlin has failed. The UK's negotiating position is growing weaker by the day. The EU has much less to lose than the British. On the homefront, May has been stirring up panic, stockpiling food and medicine in the case of a "no deal" Brexit and pushing the idea that the EU is to blame for everything because of its inflexibility.

The basic problem is that Brexit, which was pushed by a dishonest referendum campaign, has practically no advantages for the UK, neither concerning trade nor migration. To the contrary, British employers are already complaining that too few EU foreigners want to work in the country. Brexit is scaring them off.

The opposition? Keeping mum
The Remain camp is desperately fighting for a second referendum to stop Brexit. That will not happen, at least not under May, who has categorically ruled it out. Whether the prime minister can survive party infighting and hold her own beyond the autumn, when a Brexit deal supposed to have been reached, is doubtful. On the other hand, no one really wants her nearly impossible job.

Boris Johnson, that Brexit pioneer and political clown, has vanished. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has not seized the moment, and his Labour party leadership tenure has been under assault for supporting the plight of the Palestinians. In any case, Corbyn has not yet presented his own Brexit concept.

What now? Without a concept, Britain continues to stagger aimlessly toward Brexit day.  At the moment, there is little hope that anyone will pull the emergency brake and at least postpone the unfortunate event.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on August 15, 2018, 12:56:42 AM
We did not meet his granddaughter, but I will tell you the food was outstanding, like most of the food we had in Ireland. But this restaurant in particular was amazing. My wife said the oysters were the best she's ever had. After seeing the Kenmare Stone Circle, I ordered the scallops, and I received them arranged on my plate in pretty much the same pattern. The restaurant has a large image of Tom--not sure whether it was projected or an LED screen--we never got that close to it. I joked to my wife that I wasn't sure whether we needed to genuflect!

There is also a Tom Crean Beer, which we found only in the west and enjoyed several times along with our Guinness, Smithwick's, and Paddy (whisky).
How interesting! I'd love to go there myself one day. Thanks.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 15, 2018, 08:16:50 AM
A striking analysis from Germany (Deutsche Welle):

Quote
The British government is set on a vague statement about its future relationship with the EU. However, Brussels is insisting on a concrete exit treaty that would at least finalize essential questions regarding finances, borders and civil rights.

I hope this is true, because there's no way our shambolic government should be allowed to get away with yet another fudge. It's ridiculous that they've been allowed to kick the can down the road this far because of their total inability to come up with a workable plan to serve as the basis for a negotiating position. The Chequers plan is pretty much dead already.

Equally infuriating is the extent to which the Brexit-supporting press has given the government so much cover for their clueless handling of the Brexit process. If we had a press which did what it's supposed to do in a democracy, i.e. hold the government to account, they'd never be allowed to get away with the line that "it's all the EU's fault", and every cry of "betrayal!" from the Brexit ultras would be met with a demand that they produce a detailed, workable plan of their own. Unsurprisingly, no such plan has been produced or demanded.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 18, 2018, 03:19:48 PM
Would you believe it - it seems that Bertie Wooster and his chums are finally about to publish a Brexit plan of their own:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/17/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-trade-the-wto-is-not-a-safety-net (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/17/the-guardian-view-on-brexit-and-trade-the-wto-is-not-a-safety-net)

Unfortunately it's taken them until there's bugger all time left to get a deal done, but still, better late than never. And what a plan it is - apparently even if we crash out with no deal, WTO rules will be just fine. So that's our trade and economic arrangements sorted. But what of the Irish border? Well:

Quote
Next month, hardliners of the European Research Group, chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg, are due to publish a Brexit plan to rival the “Chequers” blueprint that the prime minister is trying to sell to her party and EU capitals (without great success). One difference between the two camps is that the ERG ascribes no great value to membership of the single market. Another is that it sees no need to honour commitments already made regarding an invisible Irish border. Dispensing with the burden of those obligations allows Brexiters to propose trade arrangements like those between the EU and Canada, or no trade agreement at all.

So, sod the Good Friday Agreement then. Marvellous.

This article is similarly reassuring:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/18/founder-superdry-donates-1-million-pounds-peoples-vote-brexit-deal (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/18/founder-superdry-donates-1-million-pounds-peoples-vote-brexit-deal)

Quote
Some senior ministers fear that there is no Commons majority for Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal, unveiled to her ministers at a meeting at her Chequers retreat earlier this summer and resulting in the resignations of the Brexit secretary David Davis and Boris Johnson. Many MPs and donors are expecting Johnson, the former foreign secretary, to make a pitch for the leadership, while hard Brexiters are drawing up their own preferred Brexit deal.

“We are on the road to misery,” said one senior minister. “[Hard Brexiters] will kill all but ‘no deal’. The Commons won’t vote for that – ministers won’t – so it will all collapse. It could be truly dreadful.”

Sunlit uplands here we come!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 18, 2018, 03:36:22 PM
https://www.youtube.com/v/svwslRDTyzU
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 18, 2018, 11:48:38 PM
Two academics from Princeton University on the motives behind the Brexit vote:

Brexit is a consequence of low upward mobility (https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/ashoka-mody-rachel-lurie/brexit-is-consequence-of-low-upward-mobility)

To me it seems that the Leave vote, like the rise of Trump, was the result of an unholy coalition of a large group of socially disenfranchised, left behind in modern society and left out of modern economy, and a very vocal group of upper middle class conservatives who engineered the whole situation with harsh neoliberal policies and frankly don't give a shit about anyone or anything but themselves.

Luckily in continental Europe neoliberalism in its "purest" form never really caught on...
Though on the continent there are presently other, more "classic" but equally dangerous threats to democracy.

And not far ahead are times of major global economic and geopolitical instability. Fasten your seatbelts.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 22, 2018, 09:38:05 PM
The mind boggling aspect of Brexit is that even 2 years after the referendum, nobody has a clue what is going to happen...

Want to play a simulation game?  ;) (Bloomberg)

Brexit is tricky. The U.K.'s prime minister, Theresa May, is giving it her best shot, but could you do better? Perhaps the answer is a new prime minister, or a tougher approach to the EU. Here’s your chance to play through the options as many times as you like and see if you can plot a path to the Brexit of your dreams, be it hard or soft, or perhaps stop it altogether ...

Pick Your Own Brexit (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-pick-your-own-brexit/).

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 24, 2018, 11:38:31 PM
Newest political wisdom in Westminster: anyone that points out any negative consequence of a no-deal Brexit, is a liar.
Even if it is the Chancellor of the Exchequer:

Tory infighting erupts after Hammond's no-deal Brexit comments spark anger among Eurosceptics in party
 (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/philip-hammond-no-deal-brexit-conservative-tory-party-rees-mogg-eurosceptic-a8505991.html)


Meanwhile..... in the real world (fin. times):

The World Trade Organization has warned about potential disruption for the UK from a no-deal Brexit, saying that it is “very unlikely” that the government will have agreed tariffs and quotas with all other member countries by next March.

Hardline Brexiters have pointed to the WTO as a safety net that would allow trade to continue, with additional barriers, even if Britain left the EU without a deal.

But Roberto Azevêdo, the head of the WTO, said on Friday that other countries would look to take advantage of the UK’s position, complicating or preventing agreement on some points. “The moment that other countries begin to sense an opportunity to increase the market share or increase the quota here or there, they’re going to go for that. There will be a lot of uncertainty here, there will be a lot of unpredictability,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “It is very unlikely that you’re going to have 100 per cent agreed outcome for all WTO members between now and March.”

Mr Azevêdo’s comments are a notably candid assessment of the legal obstacles facing the UK. The UK’s Department for International Trade said in response that it was looking to simply facilitate talks by “replicat[ing] as far as possible our current obligations”. “We have already started the formal process of agreeing the schedules with WTO members. It can be completed within three months. But it is not uncommon for it to take longer and for members to trade under unagreed schedules for periods of time while concerns about commitments are ironed out,” the department said.

A UK government technical notice published on Thursday said that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, “trade with the EU will be on non-preferential, World Trade Organization terms”, but did not address what would happen if there was no agreement with other WTO members.

The British government has said that a no-deal Brexit is unlikely, although Liam Fox, the international trade secretary in charge of negotiating with the WTO, has said it is a 60 per cent probability. David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, said on Friday that negotiations with the EU could continue into November — echoing a statement made this week by Michel Barnier, the lead EU negotiator.

In a no deal scenario, Mr Azevêdo made clear that the EU could not exempt the UK from tariffs. “The EU cannot discriminate among the WTO members . . . The other members pay tariffs, so the UK will have to pay tariffs as well,” he said. Under the same WTO rules, Britain could impose zero tariffs on some goods — as proposed by some Brexiters — but it would have to do so for all WTO members.

Overall Mr Azevêdo, a former Brazilian trade negotiator, said of a no-deal Brexit: “There will be an impact — it may be larger or smaller depending on the sector . . . It’s not going to be the end of the world . . . but it’s not going to be a walk in the park either.”

The WTO could also object to Britain’s proposed border system with the EU, the so-called facilitated customs arrangements. UK trade secretary Mr Fox said last month that: “There is no way with a system that has never been tested before to know whether the WTO will regard it as compliant.”
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 25, 2018, 03:42:53 AM
Newest political wisdom in Westminster: anyone that points out any negative consequence of a no-deal Brexit, is a liar.

The Brexit headbangers screech "Project Fear!" in response to any inconvenient truth in much the same way that Trump says "fake news!" to anything he doesn't like. Even the recent warning from the Royal Pharmaceutical Society about the availability of medicines in a no deal scenario was dismissed by renowned medical expert Nigel Farage as evidence that the RPS is part of the great anti-Brexit conspiracy.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 25, 2018, 03:57:28 AM
Mr Azevêdo, a former Brazilian trade negotiator, said of a no-deal Brexit: “There will be an impact — it may be larger or smaller depending on the sector . . . It’s not going to be the end of the world . . . but it’s not going to be a walk in the park either.”

Well, sometimes (always?) outsiders have a more nuanced and balanced perspective than the insiders. I think he's spot on but I'd put in the reverse order: "It's not going to be a walk in the park... but it's not going to be the end of the world either."

Plus: do anyone of you, gentlemen, trust Juncker more than May, or think the former is more honest and competent than the latter? I certainly don't.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 25, 2018, 04:09:45 AM
Well, sometimes (always?) outsiders have a more nuanced and balanced perspective than the insiders. I think he's spot on but I'd put in the reverse order: "It's not going to be a walk in the park... but it's not going to be the end of the world either."

That is nuanced. It means that loosing the economic advantages you had, doesn’t mean your economy is going to collapse.
But it’s going to cost both the UK and other countries a lot of money, we are talking billions.... For what??   ???

Quote
Plus: do anyone of you, gentlemen, trust Juncker more than May, or think the former is more honest and competent than the latter? I certainly don't.

How is the answer to the question who of these is more competent and trustworthy as a person, relevant to the rationale behind Brexit or its course?

Is chancellor Hammond more competent and trustworthy than May? Are Barnier and Tusk more competent and trustworthy than Juncker? (I believe so...)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Florestan on August 25, 2018, 04:25:02 AM
That is nuanced. It means that loosing the economic advantages you had, doesn’t mean your economy is going to collapse.
But it’s going to cost both the UK and other countries a lot of money, we are talking billions....

Certainly.

Quote
For what??   ???
[/quote]

Well, people have willingly fought and died over issues more foolish than Brexit. At least the latter will not be that bloody.

Quote
How is the answer to the question who of these is more competent and trustworthy as a person, relevant to the rationale behind Brexit or its course?

Both May and Juncker try to manage a situation not of their own making, but at least Theresa May was never seen drunk in public nor did she sang the praises of Karl Marx.  ;D

EDIT: You substituted "I believe so" for "I hope so". Telling...  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 25, 2018, 07:23:02 AM
Both May and Juncker try to manage a situation not of their own making, but at least Theresa May was never seen drunk in public nor did she sang the praises of Karl Marx.  ;D

True. But at least Juncker is upfront about his sentiments, unlike  May as a "converted" Brexiteer.
Still not sure what this tells us about Brexit, in which Juncker is not a very influential figure.

Quote
EDIT: You substituted "I believe so" for "I hope so". Telling...  :laugh:

It would... if it were true.  8) I changed the sentence, but "hope" was never there...
How appropriate in a Brexit discussion...  ;)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 26, 2018, 04:38:11 PM
but "hope" was never there...
How appropriate in a Brexit discussion...  ;)

Q

Many a true word spoken in jest....



Terrific news - the Irish border problem has been solved!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/26/have-people-inspected-at-irish-border-after-brexit-says-jacob-rees-mogg (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/26/have-people-inspected-at-irish-border-after-brexit-says-jacob-rees-mogg)

Try as I might, I cannot think of a single solitary way in which this could be anything other than a fantastic success.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 26, 2018, 09:26:06 PM
I expect a hardening of the Irish position on the NI border , perhaps that is what Rees-Mogg is playing for?  ::)
Which means there not going to be a transitional agreement without a UK guarantee on a soft border.

Since both the DUP and hard Brexiteers will prevent May from making a concession on that, I have lost hope for a "blind Brexit" (a transitional deal without a trade deal). Though there still might be a small chance of a Chequers type fudge agreed between May and the EU. But that would lead to a Tory rebellion. Still, this might be what both May and Barnier will try to aim for....

Chances of a 2nd referendum seem to get slimmer, and it doesn't make much sense anymore since there still doesn't seem to be an overwhelming majority to stop Brexit altogether....

Not many alternatives left for a hard Brexit, except one: general elections in the UK would be a reason for the EU to extend the deadline for the negotiations... Plus a general election could provide a necessary realignment of UK politics and an opportunity to properly revisit the debat on Brexit.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on August 27, 2018, 04:44:26 AM
I expect a hardening of the Irish position on the NI border , perhaps that is what Rees-Mogg is playing for?  ::)
Which means there not going to be a transitional agreement without a UK guarantee on a soft border.

Since both the DUP and hard Brexiteers will prevent May from making a concession on that, I have lost hope for a "blind Brexit" (a transitional deal without a trade deal). Though there still might be a small chance of a Chequers type fudge agreed between May and the EU. But that would lead to a Tory rebellion. Still, this might be what both May and Barnier will try to aim for....

Chances of a 2nd referendum seem to get slimmer, and it doesn't make much sense anymore since there still doesn't seem to be an overwhelming majority to stop Brexit altogether....

Not many alternatives left for a hard Brexit, except one: general elections in the UK would be a reason for the EU to extend the deadline for the negotiations... Plus a general election could provide a necessary realignment of UK politics and an opportunity to properly revisit the debat on Brexit.

Q

I really hope the EU doesn't agree to a blind Brexit. It would be a farce - a mostly blank piece of paper with a promise that "we'll fill in the gaps when/if we can think of something workable." That would mean yet more fudge and delay on top of the two years of incompetence we've already had, with both main parties stumbling along trying to put sticking plasters over their internal divisions. As things stand the deadline for a deal to be reached is October or possibly early November, and we need to have a clearer idea of what Brexit will look like by then: only when we have that is there any chance of the polls starting to shift. The sooner the crunch point comes the better. That's when any realignment of British politics is likely to start, if it happens at all. Carrying on with the present paralysis isn't going to do the country any good at all, not least because Brexit is crowding out serious domestic issues which need and deserve attention.

The major obstacle to another referendum is that legislation would have to be passed to make it happen and there's not much time left for that to be done. Maybe the EU would extend the Article 50 deadline if parliament voted for it, who knows. I think the most likely way a referendum on the final deal happens is if Labour comes out in favour of it because of a deadlocked parliament. They aren't ruling that out, and there would probably be enough Tories who would back it to make it happen.

After the lull of the summer recess it feels like we're sitting on a political powder keg which is going to go off before too much longer. There is a serious possibility of a split in both main parties, a disastrous Brexit deal/no deal may well drive up support for a second independence referendum in Scotland - which could well result in a yes vote - and there may well be serious anger among remain voters at the likely effects of a Brexit deal/no deal they never voted for, and among leave voters when they realise they aren't going to get the have our cake and eat it Brexit they were promised. Whatever happens, it's not going to be pretty.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 30, 2018, 08:50:39 PM
Just imagine: a complete new series of "Yes, Minster"..... on Brexit... Awesome!  :D

Only this time HM most loyal servants do not seem able to save the country from itself and its stupid politicians.....  ::)

Four in five civil service specialists dissatisfied with handling of Brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/30/civil-service-specialists-dissatisfied-with-uk-handling-of-brexit)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on August 30, 2018, 09:19:46 PM
The EU is prepared to offer a post-Brexit deal with the U.K. that is unlike anything it has struck with any country outside the bloc, chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Wednesday, leading to a 0.8 percent jump in the value of sterling against the dollar.

“We are prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country,” Barnier told reporters in Berlin, following a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Reuters reported.

“We respect Britain’s red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are,” he said. “Single market means single market … There is no single market à la carte.”



So...The EU is going to put out one final offer on the table....

Like everyone following Brexit, I'm curious what it will be. Best would be a single market proposal ("Norway") with extra privileges. This would be in line with Macron's wish to keep ties as close as possible.

But considering the reference to the UK's "red lines", it is more likely to be a customs' union dressed up with extra cooperation mechanisms and possibly additional privileges for the UK.... for a price, naturally....

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 01, 2018, 10:50:25 PM
An Irish commentary with some very interesting insights:

Brexit: Entering the final phase (https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0901/990836-brexit/)

The takeaway:
1. Top priority for the EU is an exit deal, which will avoid a cliff edge for now and will tie up various legal matters involving the exit (like citizens' rights).
2. Barnier is therefore focused on achieving a compromise on the biggest stumbling block: the Northern Irish border.
3. The attempt of some member states (Poland) to sacrifice the Irish issue, backfired and firmly closed the ranks in support of Ireland. Germany and France are in agreement on this.
4. The upbeat talk of an "unprecedented trade deal" is to lure the UK into concluding the exit deal and provide a (last minute) opportunity for May to save face. There will be a joint non-binding declaration about the "sun lit lands" promised by the Brexiteers, but the EU will know that it will never happen.

All of this will amount to a blind Brexit.
If the UK doesn't take the bait: behind the scenes preparations for a no deal situation are in full swing in Brussels.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 02:55:40 PM
The EU is prepared to offer a post-Brexit deal with the U.K. that is unlike anything it has struck with any country outside the bloc, chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Wednesday, leading to a 0.8 percent jump in the value of sterling against the dollar.

“We are prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country,” Barnier told reporters in Berlin, following a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Reuters reported.

“We respect Britain’s red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are,” he said. “Single market means single market … There is no single market à la carte.”



So...The EU is going to put out one final offer on the table....

Like everyone following Brexit, I'm curious what it will be. Best would be a single market proposal ("Norway") with extra privileges. This would be in line with Macron's wish to keep ties as close as possible.

But considering the reference to the UK's "red lines", it is more likely to be a customs' union dressed up with extra cooperation mechanisms and possibly additional privileges for the UK.... for a price, naturally....

Q

There was a lot of excitement over Barnier's more positive tone, even though he'd made similar remarks before. Now he's said he's strongly opposed both to the UK's customs proposal (which he called illegal), and the common rulebook, since it would kill the European project - and in any case, separating goods and services is often not possible. So back to reality then.

Since the government is saying that it's Chequers or nothing, and since Chequers appears to be dead, it looks like a no deal outcome. And as far as a blind Brexit is concerned:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit)

This article says it isn't only France opposed to a blind Brexit:

Quote
“It is not a matter of France being isolated on this, but they are the ones pushing it,” said the diplomat. “They are always talking about the need for clarity and precision.

“Two years would not be long enough to have a wider internal discussion and negotiate with the Brits. The transition would need to be extended. France has had enough.”

So it's all going terrifically well.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 03:13:12 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/51/9d/13/519d135b0e34ba749210217983bcd5e4.jpg)

Well it made me chuckle.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 03:14:58 PM
Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 03, 2018, 03:17:33 PM
Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit  :laugh:

That's actually a more coherent plan than anything the government has come up with over the last two years.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 03:31:22 PM
That's actually a more coherent plan than anything the government has come up with over the last two years.

Glad to hear some one like my ideas, next I'll run for PM  :o

And my Platform will be tax Free HiFI, so vote for the HFUK party instead of the Ordinary Fi party of the UK (OFUK)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Daverz on September 03, 2018, 07:01:59 PM
Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit  :laugh:

I'm told that many Britons believe this, or a similar geographic arrangement, is already the case.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 03, 2018, 07:20:13 PM
I'm told that many Britons believe this, or a similar geographic arrangement, is already the case.

 ;D ;D ;D :o
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 03, 2018, 09:18:43 PM
And as far as a blind Brexit is concerned:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit)

This article says it isn't only France opposed to a blind Brexit:

So it's all going terrifically well.

So France and Germany are not on the same page on a blind Brexit....

Macron is afraid that in the end Britain will be lost as a close partner to the EU, and tries to build last minute momentum for some kind of deal.

The Germans are perhaps less idealistic but certainly more pragmatic and realistic: there is no time left to hammer out yet another option. And the UK is politically unstable and therefore an completely unreliable negotiating partner.

When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter.... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on September 04, 2018, 07:05:26 AM
So France and Germany are not on the same page on a blind Brexit....

Macron is afraid that in the end Britain will be lost as a close partner to the EU, and tries to build last minute momentum for some kind of deal.

The Germans are perhaps less idealistic but certainly more pragmatic and realistic: there is no time left to hammer out yet another option. And the UK is politically unstable and therefore an completely unreliable negotiating partner.

When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter.... ::)

Q

Perhaps part of the difference lies in the fact that if there is a massive jam up for commerce coming in and out,  France will be almost the first to feel the effects, for purely logistical reasons .  The Netherlands and Belgium as well, albeit not to the same degree.   Germany will get the knock on effects but  France will have to deal with the traffic jam at the Chunnel.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 04, 2018, 08:42:36 AM
When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter.... ::)

Q

I'm not sure if the French will sign up. I think a blind Brexit would be a farce, and bad for the country, for reasons I've already mentioned. But even leaving that aside, there's no point in France or the EU as a whole agreeing to such a monumental fudge if we're just going to end up in the same position at the end of the transition period as we are now - and I don't see how that can be avoided: the ERG is committed to voting down Chequers even in its current form, and they have more than enough Tory MPs to do that (to say nothing of other Tories who are Brexit ultras but not ERG members). Any concessions to the EU will only increase the number of Tory MPs willing to vote it down. So how does it get through the Commons? The only way I can see is with Labour support, but would Labour be willing to associate themselves with a Tory Brexit? Highly unlikely (the usual suspects like Field, Stringer and Hoey excepted).

As incredible as it may seem, getting a deal with the EU is actually the "easier" bit of this lunacy - but even that is pointless if any deal which could conceivably be agreed is bound to be voted down in the Commons.  And anything other than a hard Brexit looks certain to be defeated by the ERG, whether that deal is reached now or at the end of the transition period. If anything, a blind Brexit is a risk for the EU, because there's a serious chance that when we're out at the end of March, May will be ousted and replaced by some ERG-approved lunatic, and there certainly won't be any deal to be done with them, nothing that would be even close to acceptable from the EU's point of view anyway. Indeed, an ERG-run government might well be actively hostile to the EU. God knows they're mad enough.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: EddieRUKiddingVarese on September 05, 2018, 02:04:26 PM
Just increase the width of the English Channel, that should do it  :laugh:
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 09, 2018, 08:34:39 AM
Would you believe it - it seems that Bertie Wooster and his chums are finally about to publish a Brexit plan of their own:

Update to the above:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608 (https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608)

https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201 (https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201)


So, as you were then. No alternative plan after all.

Why not? Well the article in the first link says some MPs were concerned that publishing a plan of their own would give "ammunition for Downing Street and pro-European groups to attack their proposals", while the second tweet says that "some of the chapters, which have been studied by a wide range of Eurosceptics, are said to be riddled with factual and legal errors".

Put the two tweets together and roughly translated they appear to mean: "if we publish a plan of our own we'll be advertising the fact that we're a bunch of clueless fuckwits who have no idea how to make our mad ideas work, which means there would be a serious risk of being rumbled by the people we conned into voting for this train wreck. It's a lot easier to just carry on doing what we've been doing since before the referendum - attacking everyone else's plans by repeating the same vacuous slogans ad nauseam and screaming "betrayal!" at the drop a hat. We're really good at that."
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on September 09, 2018, 09:02:11 AM
Meanwhile Mr. Minnow's horde of fellow Remoaners sabotages the Proms
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1014968/Last-night-of-the-proms-EU-flags-anti-Brexit-campaign-sabotage-British-brexit-news

If this be sabotage make the most of it!
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 09, 2018, 02:06:00 PM
Meanwhile Mr. Minnow's horde of fellow Remoaners sabotages the Proms
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1014968/Last-night-of-the-proms-EU-flags-anti-Brexit-campaign-sabotage-British-brexit-news

If this be sabotage make the most of it!

It's not easy being an Enemy of the PeopleTM. We have to grab whatever opportunities come our way.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on September 11, 2018, 12:35:53 PM
Update to the above:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608 (https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1038528269132484608)

https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201 (https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1038689473347891201)


So, as you were then. No alternative plan after all.

Why not? Well the article in the first link says some MPs were concerned that publishing a plan of their own would give "ammunition for Downing Street and pro-European groups to attack their proposals", while the second tweet says that "some of the chapters, which have been studied by a wide range of Eurosceptics, are said to be riddled with factual and legal errors".

Put the two tweets together and roughly translated they appear to mean: "if we publish a plan of our own we'll be advertising the fact that we're a bunch of clueless fuckwits who have no idea how to make our mad ideas work, which means there would be a serious risk of being rumbled by the people we conned into voting for this train wreck. It's a lot easier to just carry on doing what we've been doing since before the referendum - attacking everyone else's plans by repeating the same vacuous slogans ad nauseam and screaming "betrayal!" at the drop a hat. We're really good at that."

The first tweet seems to be the relevant one. Have factual or legal errors stopped them before? Especially in a proposal that they don’t expect to actually be implemented.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 11, 2018, 03:55:21 PM
Have factual or legal errors stopped them before? Especially in a proposal that they don’t expect to actually be implemented.

You're right of course, such errors have never stopped them before and won't stop them now. Whenever an inconvenient fact about Brexit is pointed out their standard response is to cry "Project Fear!" in much the same way that Trump cries "fake news!". By this logic, "Project Fear" includes everyone from the civil service to the Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

I'm not so sure that they don't expect this nonsense to be implemented though. If reports this evening are to be believed, the ERG's latest meeting saw MPs openly discussing how to oust May and replace her with someone more to the ERG's liking - presumably Johnson or Rees Mogg. It won't happen before the Tory party conference and maybe not immediately after that, but there's a pretty good chance it will happen at some point in the next few months. If it does, they are more than mad enough to try implementing this madness. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 13, 2018, 03:37:50 PM
The government has released another batch of impact notices on the effects of leaving with no deal (or as the Brexit ultras would have it, a "World Trade Brexit"). They are apparently hoping that these notices will convince Tory MPs to back Chequers as it's the only plan on the table - it's Chequers or nothing. Since the EU has already rejected the central planks of Chequers, our options would appear to be somewhat limited. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 17, 2018, 08:50:39 PM
The lack of a substantial swing towards "remain" seals the fate of any 2nd referendum IMO....

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/600A/production/_103468542_want_to_leave_2-nc.png)

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45520517

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 18, 2018, 02:47:32 AM
If those polls truly reflect wider opinion (and as we've often seen they can be wide of the mark), then in the face of overwhelming evidence that Brexit is an enormous and pointless act of self-sabotage, it just seems like we're confronted with a stubborn ideological blindness. All other considerations are sacrificed to a completely quixotic notion of a free and independent homeland, an emotional issue beyond the interrogation of logic or pragmatism. These are feelings which of course can be easily stoked by media-spinning figures with their own/other agendas, and I can't help but feel Remain would benefit from some kind of demagogue figure to redress the balance.

To be fair it is an emotional issue for me too (a Remainer) but at least I feel that Remainers have some kind of logic on which to base their preference.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2018, 04:21:38 AM
What will Brexit look like? If the ultras get their way, something like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs)

You won't see any of this stuff on the side of a big red bus any time soon.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on September 18, 2018, 07:25:35 AM
What will Brexit look like? If the ultras get their way, something like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs)

You won't see any of this stuff on the side of a big red bus any time soon.

Foreign competition in legal services?
What is that supposed to be? Letting US attorneys practice in England?
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 18, 2018, 08:00:35 AM
We are heading for a Blind Brexit (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/jonathan-lis-blind-brexit-1-5693994) (The New European)

(https://images.archant.co.uk/polopoly_fs/1.5693993.1536844576!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_630/image.jpg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2018, 09:10:51 AM
We are heading for a Blind Brexit (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/jonathan-lis-blind-brexit-1-5693994) (The New European)

(https://images.archant.co.uk/polopoly_fs/1.5693993.1536844576!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_630/image.jpg)

Q

Marvellous stuff:

Quote
It would offer nothing concrete on, say, the single market and customs union, and save everything for the transition – which would probably last a minimum of five years, and even then require an actual implementation period once everything that had been negotiated was finally actioned.

In the final fudge, then, Brussels would allow our exhausted government to squeak past the finish line, declare Brexit ‘delivered’, and kick every major decision affecting British jobs and the economy into the long grass of near-interminable negotiation.

[....]

Third, it would gravely damage the Remain cause, and specifically the campaign for a People’s Vote. The entire premise of the vote is to empower the British people to evaluate the prime minister’s deal against the option of staying in (and, as some advocate, leaving with no deal at all).

That means clarity and transparency about our future economic status and influence over decision-making. But if nobody knows what that is, we cannot vote on it.

If May tries this I hope it gets voted down in the Commons. It would be a disgrace to present parliament and the country with a largely blank piece of paper and ask for the right to fill in the details in whatever way they see fit when/if they can think of something. The opposition parties would probably vote against it, but as for the Tory rebels, who knows. Most of them don't have much of a backbone.

In any case, while the EU doesn't want a no deal scenario, it should also be aware of the danger of signing up to a deal at any price. Gove's comment that any deal we agree could be unpicked by future governments should be a warning of just how untrustworthy these bastards are.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 18, 2018, 09:18:06 AM
If those polls truly reflect wider opinion (and as we've often seen they can be wide of the mark), then in the face of overwhelming evidence that Brexit is an enormous and pointless act of self-sabotage, it just seems like we're confronted with a stubborn ideological blindness. All other considerations are sacrificed to a completely quixotic notion of a free and independent homeland, an emotional issue beyond the interrogation of logic or pragmatism. These are feelings which of course can be easily stoked by media-spinning figures with their own/other agendas, and I can't help but feel Remain would benefit from some kind of demagogue figure to redress the balance.

To be fair it is an emotional issue for me too (a Remainer) but at least I feel that Remainers have some kind of logic on which to base their preference.

The Leave voters I know still don't believe that Brexit will cause any of the problems they've been warned about. I was in a discussion about Brexit recently and the topic of disruption to just in time supply chains came up. The evidence is that even very short delays at customs will cause huge tailbacks that will go on for miles, but the only answer to this from the Brexiters present was, "they won't let that happen. It'll get sorted somehow. It'll be fine." That's it. No logic, no evidence, just a blind faith that it will somehow work out.     
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Sydney Nova Scotia on September 18, 2018, 09:55:52 PM
Just Ask Donald for advice- I'm sure he will give it  :o

Simple...............
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on September 21, 2018, 07:09:15 AM
Seems to be total meltdown.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 21, 2018, 02:23:40 PM
Seems to be total meltdown.

Today's laughable display of infantile histrionics stirring display of standing up for Britain will probably get May through the party conference, but that's about it. Especially odd was her claim that the EU 27 had suddenly sprung their objections to undermining the single market on her at this late stage, when they've been telling her that for the last two years.

Naturally the Brexiters are delighted. They're now pushing her to go for a Canada-type FTA, which doesn't replicate the frictionless trade we have in the single market or do anything to solve the problem of the Irish border, or crash out with no deal at all. Operation Clusterfuck is right on track. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 21, 2018, 10:39:56 PM
I have to agree with these gloomy comments... :(

The EU stands it ground on the integrity of the internal market, which means the basic options on trade relations remain the same.
The UK will have to pick one, be it Canada or Norway. I'm sure some extras can be negotiated, on defence and security for instance. But only if the jurisdiction of the ECJ is accepted.

But the trade deal is of later concern, and will probably be negotiated by a different UK government.
What we need right now is an exit deal that will provide a transitional period.
And the main stumbling block for that was and is Northern Ireland.....

It seems the UK govt. assumed that Ireland would stand alone on this at the moment of truth, but the EU 27 have firmly closed their ranks.  I don't think they are going to blink, will the UK?  ::)

Chances of a hard, no deal, cliff edge Brexit are rising significantly - the Pound has plummeted...
We're going to know pretty soon: the planning is for a basic agreement in October, signed of in November.... after that time has run out.. and it's time to prepare ourselves. I'm pretty sure the European Commission will already have some emergency regulations on the shelf to deal unilaterally with some of the immediate issues that will arise. Several member states - particularly those with strong (economic) ties with the UK -  are doing the same.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on September 22, 2018, 03:01:22 AM
My brother (retired parliamentary lawyer) has been asked back to work as they are desperate for pre-Brexit legislators.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 22, 2018, 10:55:11 AM
I cannot think of anything in my lifetime that compares with Brexit (I'm in my fifties) and keep hoping that there'll be some indication that we'll pull back from this madness (at the very least from a hard Brexit), but I haven't seen any yet, and the nightmarish trudge forwards/downwards continues.
I'm somewhat nonplussed by the vox pop interviews where people say they're bored and just want the whole thing to be over, without seeming to care too much which way it goes, it seems extraordinary that people can have such a que sera, sera attitude to such a tectonic and potentially disastrous shift. But then perhaps it's me and people like me who are actually in the minority in being so concerned about Brexit being a bringer of doom, in which case the chances of some kind of reversal seem even more remote.

One of my hopes is that a hard brexit *is* off the cards behind the scenes, and is only obscured because it would affect negotiating leverage. But there is such a gallery of shifty, ruthless rogues wandering around the corridors of power at the moment, that that may well be a very forlorn hope.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2018, 03:48:06 PM
Foreign competition in legal services?
What is that supposed to be? Letting US attorneys practice in England?

God knows. Think of the most bizarre interpretation you can and just assume that's what they mean. There's a fair chance you'll be right. Nothing these maniacs come up with surprises me anymore.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 22, 2018, 04:07:55 PM
I cannot think of anything in my lifetime that compares with Brexit (I'm in my fifties) and keep hoping that there'll be some indication that we'll pull back from this madness (at the very least from a hard Brexit), but I haven't seen any yet, and the nightmarish trudge forwards/downwards continues.
I'm somewhat nonplussed by the vox pop interviews where people say they're bored and just want the whole thing to be over, without seeming to care too much which way it goes, it seems extraordinary that people can have such a que sera, sera attitude to such a tectonic and potentially disastrous shift. But then perhaps it's me and people like me who are actually in the minority in being so concerned about Brexit being a bringer of doom, in which case the chances of some kind of reversal seem even more remote.

I don't think many of the "just get on with it" crowd really believe that Brexit is going to cause much, if any damage. Only when the damage is done will it sink in, and it will be too late by then.

Quote
One of my hopes is that a hard brexit *is* off the cards behind the scenes, and is only obscured because it would affect negotiating leverage. But there is such a gallery of shifty, ruthless rogues wandering around the corridors of power at the moment, that that may well be a very forlorn hope.

I fear it is a forlorn hope. And speaking of shifty ruthless rogues, the "Leave Means Leave" campaign held a rally today featuring David "there will be no downside to Brexit, only an upside" Davis. Also present was Nigel Farage, who apparently thinks leaving without a deal wouldn't be a problem. They aren't putting forward a detailed plan of their own of course - that would entail the hard work of coming up with something viable. Much better to shout betrayal from the sidelines and tell the public that they can have a cake and unicorns Brexit, and if the EU says no it's because they're trying to bully us. Davis told the rally that if the EU thinks it can bully the UK, they should read some history books. That's the mentality they're appealing to, apparently unaware that it's not 1940 anymore. Who needs a properly thought out plan when you can spout bellicose rhetoric and be cheered to the rafters instead?


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 22, 2018, 10:25:52 PM
It's interesting how many Brits seem unaware of the facts that not only membership of the then European Communities brought the UK strong economic growth and development, but the UK was also the driving force behind the formation of the internal market and the expansion of the EU towards the East. Only after German reunification the balance of power shifted, and France and Germany decided on a more "(con)federalist" course towards "an ever closer union". At which point Britain negotiated its many famous "opt outs".
Britain's membership of the EU significantly amplified its weight and status on the world stage. Instead of just another larger medium sized country, Britain was a major player in one of the largest economic and political alliances in the world and a linking pin in transatlantic cooperation.

Now the EU is blamed for the UK's own failed immigration policies, driven by a wish for cheap labour, and social economic inequality, which is again of its own making. And the same goes for its fishery policies, and so on and so forth...

How much the world has changed in so little time..... ::)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on September 23, 2018, 04:53:18 AM

Why Theresa May’s Salzburg humiliation increases the chance of a no-deal Brexit (https://www.businessinsider.nl/theresa-mays-salzburg-humiliation-increases-chance-of-no-deal-brexit-2018-9/?international=true&r=US) (Business Insider)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on September 23, 2018, 04:58:34 AM
Who needs a properly thought out plan when you can spout bellicose rhetoric and be cheered to the rafters instead?

That neatly sums up the pathogenic climate of the Brexit debate. Perhaps Remain needs their own bellicose spouter to fight fire with fire, or at least someone to start a Mexican Wave of sanity.

Only after German reunification the balance of power shifted, and France and Germany decided on a more "(con)federalist" course towards "an ever closer union".

Yes indeed, I think this is the fundamental anathema to the Brexiteer mindset.


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on September 23, 2018, 12:43:07 PM
I cannot think of anything in my lifetime that compares with Brexit (I'm in my fifties) and keep hoping that there'll be some indication that we'll pull back from this madness (at the very least from a hard Brexit), but I haven't seen any yet, and the nightmarish trudge forwards/downwards continues.
I'm somewhat nonplussed by the vox pop interviews where people say they're bored and just want the whole thing to be over, without seeming to care too much which way it goes, it seems extraordinary that people can have such a que sera, sera attitude to such a tectonic and potentially disastrous shift. But then perhaps it's me and people like me who are actually in the minority in being so concerned about Brexit being a bringer of doom, in which case the chances of some kind of reversal seem even more remote.

One of my hopes is that a hard brexit *is* off the cards behind the scenes, and is only obscured because it would affect negotiating leverage. But there is such a gallery of shifty, ruthless rogues wandering around the corridors of power at the moment, that that may well be a very forlorn hope.
I totally agree with you. I have never known anything like it either (early sixties). Still, no one can say that British politics is boring at the moment.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on September 23, 2018, 01:44:49 PM
It's interesting how many Brits seem unaware of the facts that not only membership of the then European Communities brought the UK strong economic growth and development, but the UK was also the driving force behind the formation of the internal market and the expansion of the EU towards the East. Only after German reunification the balance of power shifted, and France and Germany decided on a more "(con)federalist" course towards "an ever closer union". At which point Britain negotiated its many famous "opt outs".
Britain's membership of the EU significantly amplified its weight and status on the world stage. Instead of just another larger medium sized country, Britain was a major player in one of the largest economic and political alliances in the world and a linking pin in transatlantic cooperation.

Now the EU is blamed for the UK's own failed immigration policies, driven by a wish for cheap labour, and social economic inequality, which is again of its own making. And the same goes for its fishery policies, and so on and so forth...

How much the world has changed in so little time..... ::)

Q

We've had 30 years of the Tory press spouting virulently anti-EU bullshit. It's not really a surprise that so many Brits know sod all about it.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 06, 2018, 01:42:20 AM
There seems to be an increasing chance that a cliff edge will avoided:

EU negotiators say Brexit deal 'very close' but details missing (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-deal/eu-negotiators-say-brexit-deal-very-close-but-details-missing-idUSKCN1MF0K9)

As I understand it, the EU is willing to compromise in agreeing to a "backstop" on Northern Ireland that would apply to the whole of the UK. A concept that, if executed, would be at odds with May's infamous red lines.... And with the "free trade" model of hard line Brexiteers. Why not stay part of the internal market altogether?  ::)

I suspect the EU negotiators are taking their chances, and are hoping for a future UK (Labour) government opting for a soft Brexit.

If such an exit deal with a transitional arrangement is agreed, May might need Labour votes to get it through parliament.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 06, 2018, 05:21:45 AM
There seems to be an increasing chance that a cliff edge will avoided:

EU negotiators say Brexit deal 'very close' but details missing (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-deal/eu-negotiators-say-brexit-deal-very-close-but-details-missing-idUSKCN1MF0K9)

As I understand it, the EU is willing to compromise in agreeing to a "backstop" on Northern Ireland that would apply to the whole of the UK.

It's not quite clear what the article means when it says that:

Quote
Any such compromise would leave the EU concerned that Britain could use Northern Ireland’s special access to the bloc’s single market to sell cheaper goods that would not adhere to EU labour, environment and other standards.

The bloc worries that London would try to use that unique trade arrangement as a building block for the overall future trade relationship and win an unfair competitive edge.

It's not clear what "any such compromise" refers to here; does it mean a backstop in which only NI stays in the customs union, or one in which the whole UK does?

If it means the former that would be odd, since it was the EU which proposed just NI staying part of the CU, in which case why propose it if they're concerned it would give the UK an unfair advantage? But if it means the latter - as it appears to - the same question arises: why agree to something now that would put the EU at a disadvantage?


Quote
A concept that, if executed, would be at odds with May's infamous red lines.... And with the "free trade" model of hard line Brexiteers.

And therein lies the problem. If she backs away from any of her red lines the Brexit ultras will almost certainly vote it down, especially as they've already pledged to vote against her plan even in its current form.

Quote
If such an exit deal with a transitional arrangement is agreed, May might need Labour votes to get it through parliament.

It's virtually certain she would need Labour votes. Those Labour MPs who have been most vocal about "respecting the referendum result" because they're shit scared of being voted out at the next election concerned to defend democracy are mostly on the right of the party, and represent leave-voting seats. They're the ones who are most likely to vote for any deal May brings back, so ironically if they did help get a Brexit deal through the Commons it would be a chunk of the Labour right enabling Brexit - the party's right having tried to pin the blame for Brexit on Corbyn. 

That said, I'd be surprised if the number of Labour MPs willing to vote for May's deal were to exceed the number of Tory MPs willing to vote it down. The Guardian was reporting a day or two back that Downing Street is confident they can get the number of Tory rebels down to about 10 diehards, which sounds very optimistic given the ideological zealotry of the ERG and their ilk. For the Brexit ultras to back down and vote May's deal through would be the mother of all climbdowns. 

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 14, 2018, 02:22:27 AM
It's going to be a cliff hanger....


Brexit Deal Hangs in the Balance With Monday Deadline in Doubt (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-13/brexit-deal-hangs-in-balance-as-monday-deadline-said-in-doubt)

I'm assuming May will come home with some kind of exit deal. May wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal catastrophe.
Unless she was actually serious about no deal being better than a bad deal...

But the big question is: will May get it through parliament without the support of the DUP and hard Brexiteers?
I think she is gambling on the fear of a no deal situation amongst members of the opposition. Though Corbyn will instruct Labour MP's to vote against, hoping to trigger a general election.

A big gamble on Corbyn's part as well: if the Tory government subsequently survives, there is simply no deal.
In the case of a general election, negotiations will probably be extended and resumed by a new Labour government (?).
And then the whole drama will start all over gain, though the EU might immediately force Corbyn's hand in making a choice between remaing in the internal market (Norway) or a bilateral trade agreement  (Canada).

Any thoughts?

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on October 14, 2018, 03:28:34 PM
A cliffhanger it certainly is!

May wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal catastrophe.
Unless she was actually serious about no deal being better than a bad deal..

She may not want a no deal catastrophe, but as you say she is so vulnerable and she may take it just to stay in power, after all we're only in this situation because her predecessor wanted to do just the same.   
She's said before things like a no deal Brexit wouldn't be the end of the world, and would be preferable to a break up of the UK etc, etc, so she may have been trying to prepare the ground for making it one of her options. You seem to suggest that may have been just theatre, I hope you're right.

But really I speculate and know nothing, only that I'm sickened by this imbroglio.

Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 14, 2018, 04:10:01 PM
It's going to be a cliff hanger....


Brexit Deal Hangs in the Balance With Monday Deadline in Doubt (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-13/brexit-deal-hangs-in-balance-as-monday-deadline-said-in-doubt)

I'm assuming May will come home with some kind of exit deal. May wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal catastrophe.
Unless she was actually serious about no deal being better than a bad deal...

But the big question is: will May get it through parliament without the support of the DUP and hard Brexiteers?
I think she is gambling on the fear of a no deal situation amongst members of the opposition. Though Corbyn will instruct Labour MP's to vote against, hoping to trigger a general election.

A big gamble on Corbyn's part as well: if the Tory government subsequently survives, there is simply no deal.
In the case of a general election, negotiations will probably be extended and resumed by a new Labour government (?).
And then the whole drama will start all over gain, though the EU might immediately force Corbyn's hand in making a choice between remaing in the internal market (Norway) or a bilateral trade agreement  (Canada).

Any thoughts?

Q

It's not looking good, is it? If May concedes an indefinite Irish backstop she might get a deal with the EU - though the EU has already rejected Chequers, so it's not as if agreement on the backstop automatically means a deal being agreed. But let's assume that it does: no such deal will get through the Commons because the Brexit ultras and the DUP will vote it down. But if she insists on a time-limited backstop there will definitely be no deal to put to the Commons in the first place.

It's being suggested that a possible way around the backstop issue is to simply extend the transition period if required. But that raises the obvious question of whether the Brexit ultras would swallow such an arrangement. They might, but it seems to me quite likely that they would demand a time limit on any extension of the transition period just as they're currently demanding a time limit on the backstop. In which case it's back to the drawing board. Another possibility is a review clause, but given the Brexiteers' pathological hatred of the EU, would they accept this idea, or reject it on the grounds that the EU would use any review to insist that the transition arrangements continue for who knows how long?

Maybe yet another fudge will emerge in the next few days which enables a deal to be agreed, but even if it does, as things stand it's really hard to see any deal May could conceivably get making it through parliament, in which case it's no deal.   

It's almost as if this should have been thought through before the referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 14, 2018, 04:19:50 PM

She's said before things like a no deal Brexit wouldn't be the end of the world, and would be preferable to a break up of the UK etc, etc

Though a no deal Brexit might very well boost support for Scottish independence, so banking on a no deal Brexit to save the union wouldn't be too clever. Though this is the woman who thought it was a good idea to appoint Boris Johnson foreign secretary, so all bets are off.

Quote
But really I speculate and know nothing, only that I'm sickened by this imbroglio

We're now at the point where all the Brexiters have left is to insist that we have to drive the country off a cliff because if we don't the public will be disillusioned.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 14, 2018, 05:30:06 PM
Brexit argument in summary
If you promised to commit suicide you have no right to change your mind.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 17, 2018, 08:14:27 AM
As they say: a picture is worth a thousand words....

(https://cdn-02.independent.ie/incoming/article37428845.ece/5c32e/AUTOCROP/w620/U-BARNIER 16.jpg)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 17, 2018, 03:46:01 PM
http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10 (http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10)

Quote
Chlorine-washed chicken, hormone-injected beef and food containing maggots, rat-hair and mould are just some of the imports post-Brexit Britain could receive from the US.

Bloody EU. We didn't fight two world wars just to be told by some uppity Eurocrat that we can't eat maggots and rat-hair. It's our inalienable right as a proud and independent nation. 
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 17, 2018, 10:52:22 PM
All going well isn't it?
 ::)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 18, 2018, 07:32:34 AM
All going well isn't it?
 ::)

At least we know who's responsible:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dpywt1vXcAARLeB.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 18, 2018, 11:47:56 AM
http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10 (http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-uk-must-bin-unjustified-food-standards-for-brexit-trade-deal-2018-10)

Bloody EU. We didn't fight two world wars just to be told by some uppity Eurocrat that we can't eat maggots and rat-hair. It's our inalienable right as a proud and independent nation.

I don't know about the bleached chicken, and the hormonally enhanced beef is doubtless a real thing, but I think the business about rat hair and maggots is a bit of a clickbait scare.  At the very least, we American consumers have about the same opinion of rat hair and maggots as British consumers do, and it would be a brash company that tried to take refuge in regulations as a defense against customer complaints.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 18, 2018, 01:46:05 PM
I don't know about the bleached chicken, and the hormonally enhanced beef is doubtless a real thing, but I think the business about rat hair and maggots is a bit of a clickbait scare.  At the very least, we American consumers have about the same opinion of rat hair and maggots as British consumers do, and it would be a brash company that tried to take refuge in regulations as a defense against customer complaints.

It says that the US regulations allow a certain amount of those things, so I'm assuming they checked their facts before saying that, as it's the sort of thing which could probably be disproved fairly easily if it were untrue. Either US regulations make these allowances or they don't. Assuming it's true, it's not a good look for any government trying to sell the merits of a trade deal with the US to the UK public, though in any case I suspect maggots and rat-hair would be the least of their/our problems.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 18, 2018, 05:19:48 PM
It says that the US regulations allow a certain amount of those things, so I'm assuming they checked their facts before saying that, as it's the sort of thing which could probably be disproved fairly easily if it were untrue. Either US regulations make these allowances or they don't. Assuming it's true, it's not a good look for any government trying to sell the merits of a trade deal with the US to the UK public, though in any case I suspect maggots and rat-hair would be the least of their/our problems.

Perhaps I was not clear. I am sure those regulations exist. But I have never  found rathairs in my food, or anything like that. The US consumer is often more fastidious than regulators are,  enough that no company could regularly get away with it if it wanted to keep its customers.  So the British consumer should not expect to be find rathairs in their vegetables if they buy American.

Hormones in beef is a real thing, but I think that reflects a difference between American and European practices.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 18, 2018, 10:25:06 PM
It's a mess..... The negotiations on the exit deal are now basically a stand off between Ireland and Britain.

It seems that Britain's imperial past is coming back to haunt it...

Taoiseach should refuse to compromise on Brexit, voters say (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-should-refuse-to-compromise-on-brexit-voters-say-1.3666980) (Irish Times)

Quote
The EU is firmly behind Ireland. It says any “hard border” infrastructure on its frontier with the British province of the island would revive sectarian conflict. Many small EU states see the willingness of big powers to risk trade with Britain to protect Ireland as an acid test of the value of EU membership.

Take it or leave it? EU offers May few options on Brexit deal (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-deal/take-it-or-leave-it-eu-offers-may-few-options-on-brexit-deal-idUSKCN1MS28J) (Reuters)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 18, 2018, 10:45:56 PM
At least we know who's responsible:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dpywt1vXcAARLeB.jpg:large)

Very good point.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 19, 2018, 03:46:34 AM
Perhaps I was not clear. I am sure those regulations exist. But I have never  found rathairs in my food, or anything like that. The US consumer is often more fastidious than regulators are,  enough that no company could regularly get away with it if it wanted to keep its customers.  So the British consumer should not expect to be find rathairs in their vegetables if they buy American.

Hormones in beef is a real thing, but I think that reflects a difference between American and European practices.

The problem for the likes of Liam Fox is that if the regulations allow a certain amount of such things, and we sign up to similar regulations as part of a trade deal with the US, his claim that our post-Brexit food standards will not be lowered in pursuit of trade deals will be completely discredited. Much like Fox himself. At one point he had a stab at claiming chlorinated chicken would be fine but it didn't go down too well so he keeps quiet about it now. I'm not sure he'd be too successful at defending headlines about maggots and rat-hair, though it would probably be quite amusing to watch him try.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 19, 2018, 04:49:39 AM
Interesting analysis from Robert Peston:

https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2189927274665339/ (https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2189927274665339/)

Quote
9) She knows, because her Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins has told her, that her best chance - probably her only chance of securing a Brexit deal - is to sign up for the customs union.

10) In its absence, no-deal Brexit is massively in play.

11) But a customs-union Brexit deal would see her Brexiter MPs become incandescent with fury.

12)Labour of course would be on the spot, since its one practical Brexit policy is to stay in the Customs Union.

13) This therefore is May’s Robert Peel moment. She could agree a Customs Union Brexit and get it through Parliament with Labour support - while simultaneously cleaving her own party in two.

14)It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal.


"It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal" is chilling. If Peston's info is correct, May's choice is between the option that does the least damage to the country and the one which does the least damage to her party. In which case we're pretty much screwed.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: André on October 19, 2018, 08:28:28 AM
From Toronto’s Globe and Mail: the mad, the bad and the fools are now in charge.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 20, 2018, 12:40:39 AM
From Toronto’s Globe and Mail: the mad, the bad and the fools are now in charge.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/)

Depressing but true. I heard John Major's speech and agree with everything in it.

Churchill himself said that he looked forward to a 'United States of Europe'.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 20, 2018, 02:26:28 AM
Frankly, I think the negotiations are over....  ???

Not because time has ran out, but because there is not much left to say.... ::)

And it seems that in the EU most are gradually assuming and accepting that there will be no deal.

Political fatigue has set in... no deal might now become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 21, 2018, 01:11:48 AM
If there is nothing in the weeks before Christmas, companies are going to act....

The anticipation of Brexit already had economic effects, but this process would enter a new phase.

UK firms near point of no return for Brexit contingency plans, CBI warns (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-investment/uk-firms-near-point-of-no-return-for-brexit-contingency-plans-cbi-warns-idUSKCN1MU0Z6)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 21, 2018, 09:57:35 PM
A new development: pretending there is almost a deal to keep a leadership challenge at bay...

EU withdrawal deal is 95% settled, Theresa May to tell Commons (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/21/eu-withdrawal-deal-theresa-may-commons)

 ???

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 22, 2018, 09:51:27 AM
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/politics/2018/10/22/DAVEY23102018_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqXLf5rZYUXGKwZgSx01hvqAjj8ErxbDGRAuacUwyQXO0.jpg?imwidth=700)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: The new erato on October 23, 2018, 03:03:20 AM
"What was once the most powerful empire on earth is now a country that can't even find its way to the door without tripping over its own feet"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 24, 2018, 11:10:49 AM
"What was once the most powerful empire on earth is now a country that can't even find its way to the door without tripping over its own feet"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html)

True but also a slightly smug example of schadenfreude.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 26, 2018, 12:43:33 AM
True but also a slightly smug example of schadenfreude.

I saw that before and found it a painful read, even if I'm not British.
It does indeed carry the sentiment of Schadenfreude, but it is also a sign of the bitterness that has been developing on the continental side.

The general feeling in the rest of EU is that of being snubbed at in a grand way, motivated by British exceptionalism.
And the fact that two successive British foreign secretaries have compared the EU with Nazi occupation and Soviet domination respectively, hasn't helped matters much either.... Yes, Britain stood its ground and saved (with the help of the US) democracy in Europe at its darkest hour. But the British political elite seems to forget how immensely the rest of Europe has suffered at the hands of the Nazis and the Soviets.

IMO the different way in which WWII and its aftermath has been experienced on either side of the Channel, explains the difference in attitudes towards the European Union.

No matter how Brexit will pan out in the end,  I think it is safe to say that it not only has severely divided British society but also has created a deep rift with the rest of Europe.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 27, 2018, 12:32:37 AM
An interesting read on "what next?" when the present Tory government collapses - just before, or probably soon after Brexit:

Why Brexit might be as big a problem for Jeremy Corbyn as it is for Theresa May (https://theconversation.com/why-brexit-might-be-as-big-a-problem-for-jeremy-corbyn-as-it-is-for-theresa-may-105622)

If Corbyn is lucky (and clever), he wil have to take over after Brexit. Which saves him from making a choice about exiting the EU.
He will then probably decide to rejoin the single market (EEA), to save the economy and appease the remain oriented young supporters.

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 28, 2018, 12:33:53 AM
I saw that before and found it a painful read, even if I'm not British.
It does indeed carry the sentiment of Schadenfreude, but it is also a sign of the bitterness that has been developing on the continental side.

The general feeling in the rest of EU is that of being snubbed at in a grand way, motivated by British exceptionalism.
And the fact that two successive British foreign secretaries have compared the EU with Nazi occupation and Soviet domination respectively, hasn't helped matters much either.... Yes, Britain stood its ground and saved (with the help of the US) democracy in Europe at its darkest hour. But the British political elite seems to forget how immensely the rest of Europe has suffered at the hands of the Nazis and the Soviets.

IMO the different way in which WWII and its aftermath has been experienced on either side of the Channel, explains the difference in attitudes towards the European Union.

No matter how Brexit will pan out in the end,  I think it is safe to say that it not only has severely divided British society but also has created a deep rift with the rest of Europe.

Q

I don't disagree although I'm not sure that there is an underestimation in the UK of European suffering under the Nazis.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 29, 2018, 10:03:59 AM
Apparently NOT a parody:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359)
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 29, 2018, 10:21:23 AM
Apparently NOT a parody:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359)

I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1056668341602004992/s5DFv8jC?format=jpg&name=600x314)

Q
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Mr. Minnow on October 29, 2018, 03:45:17 PM
I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

So did I when I first saw it, but when the likes of the BBC started reporting it I realised that it was the latest episode in the UK's mission to turn itself into a laughing stock. First we had headlines in the press celebrating the "triumph" of having blue passports again, even though we could still have had them in the EU. And despite a French company winning the contract to make them. Then we had the announcement of May's idea of a festival of Brexit Britain (no, that's not a parody either). Now it seems we're going for the hat-trick with the 50p coin. Because when you have a deeply split and polarised country, nothing is more certain to bring people together than issuing a new coin to commemorate a decision that half the country thinks is completely bloody insane.

Quote
"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....

I think there will have to be some very small print somewhere on the coin: "Please note that friendship rates may vary and may not apply to all nations, especially in the EU". For accuracy's sake.


At least it's being greeted with all the respect and reverence that such an historic announcement deserves:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqq9J5MX4AAoQXf.jpg:large)     (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqq92lyWkAAyEQb.jpg)


(https://www.shropshirestar.com/resizer/EFo2hkDSew_0uWKfgNsfd38QI14=/1000x0/filters:quality(100)/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-shropshirestar-mna.s3.amazonaws.com/public/3CNFNFEZ7ZAV7MTWTQX5PGDR4Y.jpg)     (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dqqu04hWkAErA_O.jpg)






Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: JBS on October 29, 2018, 04:35:43 PM
Another possible design
A noseless Britannia, with a Latin motto (Latin because we must be properly Etonian) It is sweet and proper to spite one's face for one's country
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Pat B on October 29, 2018, 10:16:43 PM
I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1056668341602004992/s5DFv8jC?format=jpg&name=600x314)

Q

That design is so amateurish that I think it is probably real.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on October 29, 2018, 10:27:59 PM
The reasons behind the motto used have become much clearer to me....

The full quote from Thomas Jefferson is:

“Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none.”


There you have it... Brexit in a nutshell...  ::)

Q


Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on October 30, 2018, 05:55:17 AM
I seriously doubted it being anything other than a prank!

"Friendship with all nations"?  I mean....really..... this must be a very, very bad joke....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1056668341602004992/s5DFv8jC?format=jpg&name=600x314)

Q

At another time of the year I'd have assumed that this was an April Fool joke.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Iota on October 31, 2018, 12:41:06 PM
Apparently NOT a parody:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46016359)

Since Brexit, thinly veiled nationalism and an ever encroaching insanity seem to be the new normal. The utterly crass appearance of this 50p bit to celebrate what nearly all economists accept is a giant, irrational act of self sabotage is depressing, but seems in line with the 'if you play a wrong note, keep playing it till it sounds right' philosophy that Brexiteers have apparently have taken to heart. Anything to drown out the inconvenient sound of logic.
Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: Que on November 01, 2018, 11:06:18 PM
(https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/311018-chart-uktimeline.png)

Don’t count on the gift of a Christmas deal (https://think.ing.com/articles/brexit-blog-dont-count-on-the-gift-of-a-christmas-deal/)

"Given the limited scope for negotiators to pull out any more white rabbits, it looks increasingly likely that Prime Minister May will try and play for time.

By pushing back the crunch vote in the House of Commons on the final deal as far as she can, the hope is that this will help to focus Parliamentarians minds and make the vote a much more binary choice between deal and no deal as the time for renegotiation would almost be non-existent.

This tactic may also encourage some opposition MPs to vote with the government, particularly given that in the case of the Labour Party, the hints about future customs union membership are not very far away from their own Brexit policy."


"the only true deadline in the process is March 29th when the Article 50 ends – and even here, when push comes to shove there may willingness to extend the period if purely to create more time for ratification and legalities."



Title: Re: Brexit Negotiations.
Post by: vandermolen on November 01, 2018, 11:24:29 PM
Since Brexit, thinly veiled nationalism and an ever encroaching insanity seem to be the new normal. The utterly crass appearance of this 50p bit to celebrate what nearly all economists accept is a giant, irrational act of self sabotage is depressing, but seems in line with the 'if you play a wrong note, keep playing it till it sounds right' philosophy that Brexiteers have apparently have taken to heart. Anything to drown out the inconvenient sound of logic.
I very much agree.