"Why we haven't met any aliens" by Geoffrey Miller

[lisa needs braces]

http://seedmagazine.com/content/article/why_we_havent_met_any_aliens/

I suggest a different, even darker solution to the Paradox. Basically, I think the aliens don't blow themselves up; they just get addicted to computer games. They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they're too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. They don't need Sentinels to enslave them in a Matrix; they do it to themselves, just as we are doing today. Once they turn inwards to chase their shiny pennies of pleasure, they lose the cosmic plot. They become like a self-stimulating rat, pressing a bar to deliver electricity to its brain's central tegmental area, which stimulates its nucleus accumbens to release dopamine, which feels...ever so good.

[The new erato]

I feel like I meet a few every day on the 'net.

[lisa needs braces]

I feel like I meet a few every day on the 'net.

[Elgarian]

Meep meep!
Planet Infiltrator to Home World ... Planet Infiltrator to Home World ...

We need more beings like this poster. He lulls the infesting species on this planet into a sense of false security, so, they will be all the more easy to exterminate.

Meep meep!

[karlhenning]

Meep meep!

Roadrunner? Is that you, little fella?

[Elgarian]

Roadrunner? Is that you, little fella?

Beware, Earthling! That was the sound of our Superior Communicating Device, triggering the invasion of your planet.

[oabmarcus]

http://seedmagazine.com/content/article/why_we_havent_met_any_aliens/

that's a good article. Except, we also have technologies that can reproduce human beings. At the same time we are reproducing less, we are developing technologies to eliminate infant mortality and genetic engineering. Just because we are more and more devoted to the virtual realm doesn't mean that we won't make progress in the real world(electric cars, solar energy, CERN, etc...).

My hypothesis for why the Aliens isn't openly contacting us is quite simple. They are already here, they've been for a long time I think. They are reluctant to express themselves to the world in a public way, because they know that many of us are still too primitive to handle the concept of an alien life form from another galaxy. For one thing, all the religious zealots around the world will blow themselves up! A superior being would understand this concept, and would hesitate to get tangled up with the politics of the earth. After all, only interest they have in us is academic. Like biologists observing species of birds in the south pacific.

I also disagree with Hawking on the notion that they will come and destroy us and take our resources. A civilization that is advanced enough to do inter-stellar travel don't need our oil or gas. They can probably generate energy from ordinary matter, or harness dark matter, or something even more exotic we don't yet know about.

In the end, i still believe alien life forms will reveal themselves to us in the future. Just not any time soon.

[greg]

My hypothesis for why the Aliens isn't openly contacting us is quite simple. They are already here, they've been for a long time I think. They are reluctant to express themselves to the world in a public way, because they know that many of us are still too primitive to handle the concept of an alien life form from another galaxy. For one thing, all the religious zealots around the world will blow themselves up! A superior being would understand this concept, and would hesitate to get tangled up with the politics of the earth. After all, only interest they have in us is academic. Like biologists observing species of birds in the south pacific.

I also disagree with Hawking on the notion that they will come and destroy us and take our resources. A civilization that is advanced enough to do inter-stellar travel don't need our oil or gas. They can probably generate energy from ordinary matter, or harness dark matter, or something even more exotic we don't yet know about.

In the end, i still believe alien life forms will reveal themselves to us in the future. Just not any time soon.

hehe

"Why we haven't met any aliens..." can't say I was patient enough to read the article, but wouldn't the simple answer to that be the fact that the odds of any planet to sustain life long enough as Earth has is quite close to impossible, so if there even is any other planet in the universe with intelligent life, there is no way they would be able to contact us, since they most likely live billions of light years away?

[Elgarian]

if there even is any other planet in the universe with intelligent life, there is no way they would be able to contact us, since they most likely live billions of light years away?

Not billions. The statistical calculations are always based on a vast number of unknowns, of course, so must be treated with deep suspicion, but even if we include the whole of our galaxy, we're talking about something roughly 100, 000 light years in diameter, and maybe 20,000 light years thick, and there's a heck of a lot of stars in that. So there's scope for possible life on planets that are a lot closer than you suggest.

In any case, Earthling, you seem to be deliberately ignoring our presence on this forum. You won't be so confident when you find yourself looking at the wrong end of a ray gun.

[greg]

Not billions. The statistical calculations are always based on a vast number of unknowns, of course, so must be treated with deep suspicion, but even if we include the whole of our galaxy, we're talking about something roughly 100, 000 light years in diameter, and maybe 20,000 light years thick, and there's a heck of a lot of stars in that. So there's scope for possible life on planets that are a lot closer than you suggest.

In any case, Earthling, you seem to be deliberately ignoring our presence on this forum. You won't be so confident when you find yourself looking at the wrong end of a ray gun.

Scope, maybe, but what about probability?

Have you aliens developed technology to shoot me through the internet? 

[drogulus]

hehe

"Why we haven't met any aliens..." can't say I was patient enough to read the article, but wouldn't the simple answer to that be the fact that the odds of any planet to sustain life long enough as Earth has is quite close to impossible, so if there even is any other planet in the universe with intelligent life, there is no way they would be able to contact us, since they most likely live billions of light years away?

     The odds that another world somewhere has life are pretty good, given the number of worlds. The odds that life would develop all the way up to advanced civilization level are probably quite a bit longer. You would need a great deal of stability for a billion years, yet you may also require a few near-extinction level events to reshuffle everything. The next barrier is distance. It just might be too difficult to establish contact beyond a hundred light years or so. But the big barrier may turn out to be time. It would have been useless to attempt to contact us for any time before the last century. How likely is it that a nearby civilization would by so synchronized with our own that it would be able to either make contact or read our attempts to contact them?

     One other difficulty is that most stellar systems may be double or multiple star systems. The eccentric orbits of the planets would discourage life. Other issues also reduce the probability of life, such as the extreme radiation environment of galactic centers, and the unfavorable placement of gas giants close in to stars instead of in the outer orbits where they help protect the little rock planets. Our system is exceptional in too many ways to give assurance that advanced life is common.

[greg]

     The odds that another world somewhere has life are pretty good, given the number of worlds. The odds that life would develop all the way up to advanced civilization level are probably quite a bit longer. You would need a great deal of stability for a billion years, yet you may also require a few near-extinction level events to reshuffle everything. The next barrier is distance. It just might be too difficult to establish contact beyond a hundred light years or so. But the big barrier may turn out to be time. It would have been useless to attempt to contact us for any time before the last century. How like is it that a nearby civilization would by so synchronized with our own that it would be able to either make contact or read our attempts to contact them?

     One other difficulty is that most stellar systems may be double or multiple star systems. The eccentric orbits of the planets would discourage life. Other issues also reduce the probability of life, such as the extreme radiation environment of galactic centers, and the unfavorable placement of gas giants close in to stars instead of in the outer orbits where they help protect the little rock planets. Our system is exceptional in too many ways to give assurance that advanced life is common.

Kind of what I said, but more informative and detailed?

[drogulus]

Kind of what I said, but more informative and detailed?

     You said it with a funny accent.

[Scarpia]

     The odds that another world somewhere has life are pretty good, given the number of worlds. The odds that life would develop all the way up to advanced civilization level are probably quite a bit longer. You would need a great deal of stability for a billion years, yet you may also require a few near-extinction level events to reshuffle everything. The next barrier is distance. It just might be too difficult to establish contact beyond a hundred light years or so. But the big barrier may turn out to be time. It would have been useless to attempt to contact us for any time before the last century. How like is it that a nearby civilization would by so synchronized with our own that it would be able to either make contact or read our attempts to contact them?

     One other difficulty is that most stellar systems may be double or multiple star systems. The eccentric orbits of the planets would discourage life. Other issues also reduce the probability of life, such as the extreme radiation environment of galactic centers, and the unfavorable placement of gas giants close in to stars instead of in the outer orbits where they help protect the little rock planets. Our system is exceptional in too many ways to give assurance that advanced life is common.

The interesting question is how long will intelligent life on earth last?  Life has been here for perhaps 3 billion years.  Civilization has had the ability to send or receive a signal to space for perhaps 50 years.  That is one part is 60 million of the total time life has existed.  Will we remain in this state for another 3 billion years?  It seems doubtful.  It doesn't seem out of the question that in a few hundred years "intelligent" life on earth will be gone.

[drogulus]

The interesting question is how long will intelligent life on earth last?  Life has been here for perhaps 3 billion years.  Civilization has had the ability to send or receive a signal to space for perhaps 50 years.  That is one part is 60 million of the total time life has existed.  Will we remain in this state for another 3 billion years?  It seems doubtful.  It doesn't seem out of the question that in a few hundred years "intelligent" life on earth will be gone.

     Maybe we won't be gone, but the other guys might be. What if planetary "apoptosis" eliminates, say, 90% of all advanced civilizations within 200 years of a particular technical milestone like electronic communications or Saturday morning cartoons?

     

[greg]

     You said it with a funny accent.

[oabmarcus]

the odds is pretty good, considering how old the universe is. Yes, there are tremendous difficulties facing interstellar travelers. But, it only takes a little imagination, and it's not too difficult to see scenarios where these obstacles can be conquered. After all, there are still so much we don't know about the universe we live in. It's a bit arrogant to be so certain of the impossibility of alien being arriving on earth. Even though, I must confess that i still do not see conclusive evidence to back my theory. So, my "theory" is mere speculative.

[Scarpia]

the odds is pretty good, considering how old the universe is. Yes, there are tremendous difficulties facing interstellar travelers. But, it only takes a little imagination, and it's not too difficult to see scenarios where these obstacles can be conquered. After all, there are still so much we don't know about the universe we live in. It's a bit arrogant to be so certain of the impossibility of alien being arriving on earth. Even though, I must confess that i still do not see conclusive evidence to back my theory. So, my "theory" is mere speculative.

Are you aware of the special theory of relativity?

[Elgarian]

Scope, maybe, but what about probability?

Well, I was only questioning the issue of 'billions of light years' - there are something like 100 billion stars within our galaxy, that is, within a range measured in tens of thousands of light years, rather than billions.

Over the years there have been some sophisticated estimates about the probability of finding intelligent life elsewhere, and while there's no doubting the elegance and ingenuity of the thought behind these calculations (Ernie touches on some of the issues involved), ultimately all these methods depend on a knowledge of certain very basic probabilities that we just don't have. In effect (albeit to oversimplify), we end up with a convincing formula for the probability of achieving communication with intelligent life elsewhere as some function of 'p'. But then to get an answer, we have to just guess at the value of 'p'. The thinking is great, but the answer very dodgy.

[And by the way, Earthling - you think we have no technology for exterminating you through the internet? Ha!]

[greg]

[And by the way, Earthling - you think we have no technology for exterminating you through the internet? Ha!]

Hm... well, Mr.Alien, if you have technology that will teleport me a couple of feet away through the internet, then I will believe you about the extermination capabilities. Go ahead. Try it...