May 2011 Canadian Federal Election Results

[Brahmsian]

WOW!!  Probably the most amazing, seismic change ever in Canadian Politics occurred last night.

The NDP (New Democratic Party) for the first time in history, became the official opposition party at the federal level, with 102 (unofficial) seats.  Their highest result previously was in 1988 with Ed Broadbent as leader of the NDP with 43 seats.  WOW, Jack Layton certainly delivered indeed an Orange Crush, and in particular in la Belle Province, Quebec, where they absolutely decimated the Bloq Quebecois Party, who only received 4 seats (unofficial result).  For over 20 years, the Bloc Quebecois had been the majority party federally in Quebec, always holding a minimum of 40 seats, and at times 50+ seats.

Canadians for the first time in four elections, elected a majority government (finally!), with the Conservatives taking 167 seats(unofficial), with 155 seats required to form a majority government.

For the first time in Canadian history, the Liberal Party was not the governing party or official opposition party, earning only 34 seats, there lowest number of seats ever.   

Even the leaders of the Liberal Party and Bloq Quebecois, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe, respectively, lost their own seat in their respective ridings!

A historic night for Canada, to be sure.  I could not be prouder to be a Canadian than I am right now.  The people voted for change, and OH BOY did they ever send a message!   

[springrite]

Big change indeed. I wonder how much Quebec will change as a result of this?

[Shrunk]

Big change indeed. I wonder how much Quebec will change as a result of this?

I've discussed this with a Qubecer on another forum.  Just one guy's opinion, of course, but it makes sense to me:  He doesn't think the support for the NDP was a big vote for federalism as much as it was a vote against Harper.  The hope being  that a strong showing by the NDP would make a Liberal/NDP coalition gov't more likely.  That plan went down the drain, however, once the Liberals tanked in Ontario.

I don't think this is really a big blow for separatism.  The sovereignists are on the ropes for now, but I think everyone assumes the PQ will win the next provincial election against the deeply unpopular Charest gov't, and then we're right back where we started (With a Prime Minister who seems quite tone-deaf to Quebec politics, and has no need for the province now that he's got Ontario in his back pocket.)

[Coopmv]

WOW!!  Probably the most amazing, seismic change ever in Canadian Politics occurred last night.

The NDP (New Democratic Party) for the first time in history, became the official opposition party at the federal level, with 102 (unofficial) seats.  Their highest result previously was in 1988 with Ed Broadbent as leader of the NDP with 43 seats.  WOW, Jack Layton certainly delivered indeed an Orange Crush, and in particular in la Belle Province, Quebec, where they absolutely decimated the Bloq Quebecois Party, who only received 4 seats (unofficial result).  For over 20 years, the Bloc Quebecois had been the majority party federally in Quebec, always holding a minimum of 40 seats, and at times 50+ seats.

Canadians for the first time in four elections, elected a majority government (finally!), with the Conservatives taking 167 seats(unofficial), with 155 seats required to form a majority government.

For the first time in Canadian history, the Liberal Party was not the governing party or official opposition party, earning only 34 seats, there lowest number of seats ever.   

Even the leaders of the Liberal Party and Bloq Quebecois, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe, respectively, lost their own seat in their respective ridings!

A historic night for Canada, to be sure.  I could not be prouder to be a Canadian than I am right now.  The people voted for change, and OH BOY did they ever send a message!   

Does that mean there will no longer be secession talk?

[Cato]

From the May 4, 2011 Wall Street Journal p. A15

See:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703834804576301110488857734.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion

An excerpt:

In the winter of 1997, two Canadian conservatives wrote a stark essay arguing that conservative governance was an unlikely prospect for their country.

The governing Liberal Party was the most electorally successful party in the Western world, they noted, and Canada had become "a benign dictatorship." One of the authors had particular reason to be discouraged: Stephen Harper had just been railroaded out of the leadership of the party he helped found and appeared to be finished politically.

But Mr. Harper would stage a comeback, bringing the Conservatives to power first in 2006 and again in 2008 as leader of minority governments. Finally, on Monday, he scored the first non-Liberal majority in 23 years.

While his governance style has been quiet, Mr. Harper has established an impressive track record. He's cut Canada's value-added tax (the GST) as well as the corporate tax. He's deregulated the telecom industry. And despite strong pressure, he's only modestly given in to the temptation of stimulus spending.

The result is that the Conservative Party has credibly promised to cut spending further and to balance the federal budget by 2014. Moreover, based on International Monetary Fund projections, in 2015 Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio will be less than 30%, largely unchanged from the start of the recession—and a third of the projected U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio in that year.

Remarkably, Harper has accomplished these goals despite having to depend, at different points, on parliamentary votes from the Liberals (who publicly oppose tax relief), the socialist New Democratic Party (NDP), and the Bloc Quebecois (a separatist party led by a former Marxist). Now, after taming the deficit, he's promised a middle-class tax cut.

[Shrunk]

Does that mean there will no longer be secession talk?

I don't think so.  See my post above.  It would be presumptuous to interpret the votes for the NDP as an endorsement of federalism rather than just a rejection of the Harper Conservatives.

The Conservatives now know they can achieve a majority without a single vote from Quebec.  If they govern accordingly, I don't see that being good for the federalist cause. 

[Shrunk]

From the May 4, 2011 Wall Street Journal p. A15

I think the WSJ article is deceptive.  The Conservatives have achieved power by moving to the left.  You'd be hard pressed to indentify any substantive policy differences between them and the previous Liberal regime.  In fact, the Conservatives have increased gov't spending to unprecedented levels.  It's also incorrect to say the Liberals oppose tax relief; rather they favoured tax relief for middle class individuals and families over corporate tax cuts.

[Brahmsian]

Here's to Justin Trudeau for PM in 2015 or 2019!!