Missing Members

Started by Cato, October 24, 2011, 07:14:12 AM

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John Copeland

I am a woman called Clarissa...wait a minute, hang on, hang on, no I'm not... >:(

knight66

Is Dixon part of your name?

Mike
DavidW: Yeah Mike doesn't get angry, he gets even.
I wasted time: and time wasted me.

The new erato

Quote from: Scots John on October 03, 2013, 07:04:39 AM
I am a woman called Clarissa...wait a minute, hang on, hang on, no I'm not... >:(
Anything in skirt I'll say......

Brahmsian

MN Dave is back!!  Again!!   ;D

Yay!  Welcome back, neighbour!

mn dave

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Cato

Quote from: Scots John on October 03, 2013, 07:04:39 AM
I am a woman called Clarissa...wait a minute, hang on, hang on, no I'm not... >:(

Quote from: The new erato on October 03, 2013, 09:21:58 AM
Anything in skirt I'll say......

It isn't a skirt: it's called a kilt!  0:)
"Meet Miss Ruth Sherwood, from Columbus, Ohio, the Middle of the Universe!"

- Brian Aherne introducing Rosalind Russell in  My Sister Eileen (1942)

knight66

Quote from: mn dave on October 03, 2013, 02:36:20 PM
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I have reported this post to a moderator.

Mike
DavidW: Yeah Mike doesn't get angry, he gets even.
I wasted time: and time wasted me.

Karl Henning

Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Parsifal

Haven't seen the snyprrr for a while. 

springrite

I was going to be "missing" for a while and see if anyone noticed. But I came back after five days. How long does it take to be noticed, I wonder...
Do what I must do, and let what must happen happen.

Parsifal

Quote from: springrite on October 07, 2013, 04:00:39 PM
I was going to be "missing" for a while and see if anyone noticed. But I came back after five days. How long does it take to be noticed, I wonder...

Until the deficit of posts is statistically significant.  Assuming posting is a random process, it would have something to do with a Poisson distribution.

kishnevi

Quote from: springrite on October 07, 2013, 04:00:39 PM
I was going to be "missing" for a while and see if anyone noticed. But I came back after five days. How long does it take to be noticed, I wonder...

Depends on how often the individual posts, and if there are known reasons why the member would be offline.   John (Mirror Image) would probably be noticed within one day.  Your absence, on the other hand, would probably be attributed to a lecture trip you forget to mention, and therefore would not be remarked on until someone realized your "trip" was much longer than usual.

Parsifal

#452
For random events (i.e., when events occur at a known average rate, and are independent of the time since the previous event)  the probability of observing N events is when an average of A events is expected is given by the Poisson distribution:

P(N,A) = (AN e-A)/(N!)

The symbol "!" means factorial and e is the base of the natural logarithm

Snyprrr seems as randome as it comes, so assuming that snyprrr makes 3.85 posts per day (according to his member profile)  the probability that he fails to post on a given day is P(0,3.85) = 0.02, or 2%.

There is a 2% chance that snyprrr neglects to post on any given day, and the chance that he neglects to post for 7 days running is 0.027, or 2 x 10-12

???

Either snyprrr is dead, or snyprrr is not random.

Brahmsian

Quote from: Scarpia on October 08, 2013, 11:54:16 AM

???

Either snyprrr is dead, or snyprrr is not random.

I certainly hope the former isn't the case, and I'm sure it isn't.  As for the latter, the most reliable, constant, unwavering thing on GMG is snyprr's randomness.  ;D

Sergeant Rock

Quote from: ChamberNut on October 08, 2013, 12:02:31 PM
I certainly hope the former isn't the case, and I'm sure it isn't.  As for the latter, the most reliable, constant, unwavering thing on GMG is snyprr's randomness.  ;D

Indeed. Often when I reply to a snyprrr post it will be days, even weeks before he answers. The dude's middle name is random.

Sarge
the phone rings and somebody says,
"hey, they made a movie about
Mahler, you ought to go see it.
he was as f*cked-up as you are."
                               --Charles Bukowski, "Mahler"

springrite

Quote from: Sergeant Rock on October 08, 2013, 12:21:26 PM
Indeed. Often when I reply to a snyprrr post it will be days, even weeks before he answers. The dude's middle name is random.

Sarge
He waits till you have forgotten what you had posted, what you meant, and the context to reply so you'd be more confused and in no position to defend yourself.
Now that he appears to be missing, he must be setting up a few posters! Just wait!
Do what I must do, and let what must happen happen.

Brahmsian

Quote from: springrite on October 08, 2013, 04:24:01 PM
He waits till you have forgotten what you had posted, what you meant, and the context to reply so you'd be more confused and in no position to defend yourself.
Now that he appears to be missing, he must be setting up a few posters! Just wait!

Yes, the air has an aroma of an oncoming, impending Snyprrr Tsunami of randomness!  :laugh:

Parsifal

Quote from: Scarpia on October 08, 2013, 11:54:16 AMEither snyprrr is dead, or snyprrr is not random.

I've come up with a third possibility.  The snyprrr has a job.

Gurn Blanston

Quote from: Scarpia on October 08, 2013, 05:01:48 PM
I've come up with a third possibility.  The snyprrr has a job.

Mmmmmmm.........  nah!    :o


8)
Visit my Haydn blog: HaydnSeek

Haydn: that genius of vulgar music who induces an inordinate thirst for beer - Mily Balakirev (1860)

The new erato

Quote from: Scarpia on October 08, 2013, 05:01:48 PM
I've come up with a third possibility.  The snyprrr has a job.
If I were American, I would now exclaim "Aha; it's him that works at customer telephone support at "put in your favorite"!"