Objective review of the US 2012 Presidential and Congressional general campaign

[Brian]

Oh, the joys of timing. NY Daily News, yesterday:

The most immediate opportunity to turn things around is in his selection of a vice-presidential nominee. Because Romney's poll numbers are tanking it increases the likelihood of a "shake-up" pick – someone who can allegedly move the numbers. This means eschewing a safe but steady VP selection like Sen. Rob Portman, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty or Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and calling an audible at the line of scrimmage. Indeed, the latest conventional wisdom is coalescing around Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

But this would be a huge, even catastrophic mistake for Romney. Veep picks rarely matter all that much in presidential elections, and the general approach should be to do no harm when picking one. Selecting Ryan, while potentially pacifying conservatives who will likely vote for the Republican ticket anyway, would be the functional equivalent of putting a giant target on the Romney campaign.

After all, Ryan is the author of the deeply unpopular House budget passed by Republicans – which would eviscerate the social safety net and do away with Medicare's federal guarantee. It's the equivalent of political Kryptonite, and even though Romney has foolishly endorsed the document, putting the Congressman on the ticket would make it that much easier for the Obama campaign to tar Romney with the most unpopular provisions of Ryan's budget. This is not to mention the fact that Ryan has no experience on the national political stage. That he's even being considered is a sign of Romney's growing desperation and all too evident indications that he has not closed the deal with conservatives.

When times are rough, there is often the inclination to throw the Hail Mary pass (a la Sarah Palin in 2008). But while Romney's chances of victory are narrowing, the selection of Ryan would compound his problems and make winning in November that much more unlikely. The Romney campaign has hardly been a font of competence to date, but picking Ryan would be political malpractice.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/the_rumble/2012/08/picking-ryan-would-turn-desperation-into-disaster

And a follow-up today:

Ryan is merely a sop to conservatives who don't fully trust Romney.

If anything, Ryan's budget – and its cuts in Medicare as well as tax breaks for the wealthy – is now an even clearer and more visible target for the Obama campaign. He provides even further confirmation of the key attack lines that Obama has been using against Romney to date – that his policies favor the wealthy, that he would shred the social safety net and that he would return the country to failed policies of the past. It's rare when a presidential candidate willingly does something that plays so directly into your opponent's hands; but by picking Ryan this is precisely what Romney has done. In fact, Ryan may become the first vice-presidential candidate since Agnew to be featured prominently in the other side's campaign ads.

All of this makes sense when one considers that Paul Ryan is far more representative of the attitudes of the Republican Party than the party's actual standard-bearer. It is Ryan, not Romney, who is the conservative darling; it is he, not Romney, who has defined its ideological shift to the far right; it is Ryan who has laid out the party's hard right policy agenda; it is he, not Romney, who represents the future of the Republican Party. ...Unwilling to be his own man, Romney has become a mere figurehead in the party he is about to lead into the fall election.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/the_rumble/2012/08/why-ryan-is-simply-a-terrible-choice

Paul Krugman should have a column tomorrow, right?

[Scarpia]

Oh dear, is this Romney's Sarah Palin moment. 

I'm looking forward to Ryan's performance in the debates, when he can explain to the electorate that Medicare and Social Security just give people the incentive to be economically irresponsible.  With those two programs shredded, the certainty of dying alone in the gutter after growing old will motivate responsible behavior and make America great again.

[Todd]

Oh dear, is this Romney's Sarah Palin moment.

Not really.  Like or dislike (or hate) Ryan, he's far smarter and more capable than Palin, has over a decade in the House under his belt, and has already softened his budget stance by changing some of the specifics.  It's hard to see him saying things along the lines of "I can see Russia from my backyard."  (Of course, one never knows.)  I think he will do fine in the debate or debates with Biden.  I see him as a negative for Romney, but not much of one.  Few people vote for president based on the VP candidate.  Hell, look at McCain.  In one of the worst financial crises in the country's history, with one of the poorest choices ever for VP, he still lost by just over seven points in the popular vote.  If Obama is reelected, I would bet it is by less than that this time around, say 3-5%.

This could give Ryan a leg up in 2016, as well.  Assuming he wants to try for the top job after the grilling he's going to get over the next three months.

[Gurn Blanston]

It is people like Ryan and his political ilk who caused me to leave the Republican Party after spending most of my life there. As November draws near, I can scarcely wait to vote for Obama. I am a centrist above all, and Barry O. is far closer to the center  than anyone I see coming along on the Repub side, especially now. 

[snyprrr]

The best we can hope for is... mm...

Let's see, if the Kenyan gets the nod, then it's... sorry, I shudder to think,... the gay W.

If the Peter Popov wannabe gets it, then the US becomes annexed to Tel Aviv,... oh, I mean Jerusalem ,... and we will ALL be conscripted for the coming holy war...

Either way, corporatism, I mean fascism, wins.

2016

2016

Chen Xie-Yu for President of the Inident States of America!

bah bah bum bah bah!! bum bum bah bah!!

[Karl Henning]

It is people like Ryan and his political ilk who caused me to leave the Republican Party after spending most of my life there. As November draws near, I can scarcely wait to vote for Obama. I am a centrist above all, and Barry O. is far closer to the center  than anyone I see coming along on the Repub side, especially now. 

Well, I for one have something of a musical interest in how the counterpoint will work:  Ryan singing the stern need for the 98% to endure extreme austerities and draconian reduction in the social safety net, with Romney's cakewalk of more tax breaks for the millionaires.  It's an anthem we've heard before:  Sacrifice is for everyone who isn't so rich as I am.

[drogulus]

     Romney Campaign Requested 'Several' Years of Tax Returns of VP Contenders

     Outrageous, isn't it? Doesn't Mitt know these people have a constitutional right to keep their tax shenanigans from the voting public?

     Mitt, promise me not a word'll be said to the voters about what you learn! There's a principle at stake, somewhere, if I can find it....

     Anyway, be strong, be brave! Don't let us down!

     Voters...... who elected them, anyway?

[Brian]

From the NYT Magazine special on Bill Burton's left-wing Super PAC, July 8:

"Burton and his colleagues spent the early months of 2012 trying out the pitch that Romney was the most far-right presidential candidate since Barry Goldwater. It fell flat. The public did not view Romney as an extremist. For example, when Priorities informed a focus group that Romney supported the Ryan budget plan — and thus championed "ending Medicare as we know it" — while also advocating tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, the respondents simply refused to believe any politician would do such a thing."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/08/magazine/can-the-democrats-catch-up-in-the-super-pac-game.html?pagewanted=all

From today's paper:

Bill Burton, one of the founders of Priorities USA Action, a pro-Obama super PAC, said his group had always planned to devote the fall to tying Mr. Romney to Mr. Ryan's budget plan, but had worried that it might not stick.

"From the beginning when we polled, we found that the Ryan plan was the most toxic political document ever, but the problem was you couldn't convince voters that any politician would actually support it," Mr. Burton said. "Now this actually makes the job easier."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/12/us/politics/ryan-pick-gives-obama-chance-to-change-subject.html?_r=1&hp

[Todd]

Outrageous, isn't it?

Not at all.  As far as I am aware, the information would not be made public, just as Romney's tax data released to the McCain campaign has not been made public.

I'm still waiting for people who want Romney to release more tax data to point out the specific legal requirement to do so, or the Constitutional provision requiring it.  Otherwise it's just sanctimonious whining.

Bill Burton, one of the founders of Priorities USA Action, a pro-Obama super PAC, said his group had always planned to devote the fall to tying Mr. Romney to Mr. Ryan's budget plan, but had worried that it might not stick.

"From the beginning when we polled, we found that the Ryan plan was the most toxic political document ever, but the problem was you couldn't convince voters that any politician would actually support it," Mr. Burton said. "Now this actually makes the job easier."

Well, now they can make it stick, and perhaps there will be more of a focus on fiscal issues.  Somehow, with a hyperbolic phrase like "most toxic political document ever," and references to "extremism in the defense of liberty" Goldwater, I think it will quickly devolve into something less than dignified and serious on both sides.  I'm looking forward to it.

[Scarpia]

There is obviously no legal requirement for him to disclose his tax returns, and I have no suspicion that anything illegal will be found there.  My suspicion is that in the last year he deliberately avoided extremely creative tax strategies so he would have a clean return to release, but that prior years his accountants were more creative and his tax bill was dramatically lower.   If ordinary Americans compare their own 1040 with paltry deductions with Romneys, and see huge income redefined as 'carried interest' and sheltered in all sorts of complex trusts and overseas transactions, with no hint of 'job creating' they will loose sympathy with his brilliant idea that super rich people need tax relief.

[Sammy]

I'm still waiting for people who want Romney to release more tax data to point out the specific legal requirement to do so, or the Constitutional provision requiring it.  Otherwise it's just sanctimonious whining.

So true.  My opinion is that income tax returns are a matter between the person/family filing the return and the IRS - period.

[Todd]

but that prior years his accountants were more creative and his tax bill was dramatically lower.

I certainly hope he and his tax folks took full advantage of everything at their disposal.  That's what I'd do if I had that type of money.

[Karl Henning]

Incidentally (and that is Ted Kennedy standing behind him)

[Todd]

But it's different if a state mandates something.  Or something.  (I'm still fond of The Onion article on Romney's shady healthcare legisation past.)

[Karl Henning]

That is tasty, thanks.

[Gurn Blanston]

That is tasty, thanks.

Savory with Onions...

[Christo]

Incidentally (and that is Ted Kennedy standing behind him)

Apparently, Romney couldn't hold a pen in those years. 

[kishnevi]

But it's different if a state mandates something.  Or something.  (I'm still fond of The Onion article on Romney's shady healthcare legisation past.)

The standard Republican defense amounts to this:  that the Federal Government is a government of delegated powers, and therefore can not trample all over your freedoms;  but the state governments are not, and therefore can trample all over you freedoms.   And they are fine when it's the state government doing it.  It just when the Federal government does it that their ire is raised.

This is where you can see the differences among libertarians, conservatives, and Republican partisans displayed in full.

To their credit, there are some real Republicans who don't swallow the party line and realize that if someone murders you,  the kind of gun used doesn't really matter--and they are the ones least enthused about Romney.  But they all seem to be the sort who are least tied to the Party to begin with.

[Todd]

The standard Republican defense amounts to this:  that the Federal Government is a government of delegated powers, and therefore can not trample all over your freedoms;  but the state governments are not, and therefore can trample all over you freedoms.   And they are fine when it's the state government doing it.  It just when the Federal government does it that their ire is raised.

I'm well aware of the rational, and if it were applied uniformly, it would be a more potent argument.  There is some validity to it, too.  Challenging federal power can be most difficult; the Feds have resources no state does, nor ever will.  Of course, even the original champions of enumerated federal powers were a bit flexible in how they interpreted that principle.

[kishnevi]

BTW (and although this is, strictly speaking, no part of the Presidential/Congressional campaigns), there are some hijinks going on in the local Democratic primary for sheriff, which is being held tomorrow.

This features a former deputy city police chief named Granteed, and a former police chief (of a smaller city) named Israel.  Granteed was a member of the GOP from 1986-1990, and then switched back to Democrat.  Israel was a Republican all his life until he switched to run on the Democratic column for sheriff last time around.  He lost, and the incumbent (Lamberti) is a Republican.

Therefore the most heard charge against either one is that of being a former Republican.  There's also loads of personal bad stuff being flung back and forth.  Both of them have enough personal baggage to make me not want to vote for them.    But there are two novel twists to this little match up.
1) It's claimed that Lamberti is actually providing help and fundraising to Granteed with the aim of weakening Israel when he faces Israel (as the presumtive nominee) in November.  Of course, this scenario goes a little haywire if Granteed wins the primary.

2)A group calling itself "Tea Party of Miami" has been robocalling endorsements of Granteed as a true law and order conservative, hard on immigrants and tough on crime, and all other code words intended to appeal to Republican voters and turn off Democrats.  Tonight we even had a call from a person impersonating George W Bush (43) with a supposed endorsement of Granteed by Bush.  Apparently a person who may or may not be working for Israel is behind this, with the aim of getting people not to vote for Granteed.    And a few side "endorsements" of other Democratic candidates are flung in for good measure.  (The Tea Party of Miami group has enough of a paper trail to indicate it has not connection to any real element of the Tea Party movement.)