Objective review of the US 2012 Presidential and Congressional general campaign

[Todd]

Thanks for your response. I think Europe has been sabotaged by the idealist basis of its founding - the idea of an all-inclusive community is in practice a welfare state with the prosperous nations supporting the corrupt and incompetent hangers-on. Cutting their losses would I think the best option for France/Germany et al.

Part of Germany's economic success comes from its exports to those "corrupt and incompetent hangers-on."  As assuredly as the PIIGS have been hampered by a Euro that is overvalued in those nations, Germany has benefitted enormously from what amounts to an undervalued currency.  Were Germany to use a national currency, it would be stronger than the Euro.  Germany is the single biggest beneficiary of the Euro, and accordingly should do more to support the weaker countries.  Successful integration means expanding economic transfers.

[eyeresist]

Ahah, I didn't realise that about the German currency.

[drogulus]

     Todd is exactly right. This is the German Empire we're talking about, with internal colonies it exports to. Germany gets to be as austere as it wants, supporting a terrific welfare state with a very efficient economy. The pain is exported to the colonies. The Euro is a prison for them. The idea of Merkel lecturing the untermenschen on their profligate ways strikes me as a little grotesque.

[Todd]

Will the Europeans heed the call of Emperor Obama?

[drogulus]

  We could even see the almost unthinkable – negative nominal interest rates on T-bills.  (The Treasury has been working to allow for that possibility.)  Just think about that.  I wonder how Romney would present that on the campaign trail?  How could you?  "The US economy is so weak that investors are paying us for the privilege of buying our debt."  Nope, that will not do.  You know the money man inside Romney would favor floating as much debt as possible since such favorable terms are exceedingly rare.  But the politician in Romney can't say that.

      Actually the latent strength of the U.S. economy is so great that you don't have to pay people to hold U.S. debt. The market is smarter than the marketeers. Markets are treating the U.S. financial crisis as a strong country brought low by politics, not underlying economic weakness.

      And you are right. Not only is spending the cure when there isn't enough of it, the money will never be cheaper. The Austrian argument is just a restatement of the Keynesian one in a mean angry voice. The Keynesians say let's lift the burden from individuals and businesses who are saving us into a spending slump by spending to make up the shortfall. The time shift element from now to later is from the current depressed GDP to the stronger, bigger GDP. Nothing strange at all, I'd say. Your mortgage payments that looked so big a few years ago aren't so big now. The Austrians just add the mean angry voice and useless moralizing. These guys are always wrong and never pay the price. Inflation, inflation......where is it? What do we have to fear from the interest payments? Even if interest rates go up it's trivial for our economy. The Japanese are borrowing at low rates after 20 years of this shit. Do you know what their debt is?

[Todd]

Actually the latent strength of the U.S. economy is so great that you don't have to pay people to hold U.S. debt.

Incorrect.  Nominal rates are still positive; ie, lenders must be paid.  Real rates are negative.  Negative nominal rates for US sovereign debt would be a new thing, and a significant thing.

The Austrian argument is just a restatement of the Keynesian one in a mean angry voice.

Incorrect.  There are quite a few things wrong with this statement. 

The Japanese are borrowing at low rates after 20 years of this shit.  Do you know what their debt is?

Yes, I do.  Japan is hardly the best example of the types of policies that should be pursued.  You're talking about a country with a shrinking population, so flat economic growth results in positive GDP per capita growth  The US is not in a similar situation.  The US should pursue different policies.

[Todd]

Keep on shaking that Etch-A-Sketch, baby!

[Todd]

I think Obama may lose a good chunk of the South.

[Wendell_E]

I think Obama may lose a good chunk of the South.

Gee, and he did so well here last time.   

[Todd]

Gee, and he did so well here last time.

Of course Democrats do poorly in much of the South now - that's a given - but what I find most amusing is that a not insignificant number of Democrats voted for someone else, including an inmate, or for no one else, in some of the primaries so far. 

[Karl Henning]

Aye, there are tunnel-visioned nitwits a-plenty at either end of the spectrum.

[Wendell_E]

Of course Democrats do poorly in much of the South now - that's a given - but what I find most amusing is that a not insignificant number of Democrats voted for someone else, including an inmate, or for no one else, in some of the primaries so far.

Even more amusing were the Republicans who actually voted for Ron Paul.   

In 2008 Obama only got 26.25% of the primary vote in Arkansas, and 29.92% in Kentucky.  In the general election, those figures went up to 38.8% and 41.2%.  I don't think it's suprising that "any white guy" does well against Obama in parts (most) of the south.

[Todd]

Even more amusing were the Republicans who actually voted for Ron Paul.

Amusing, yes, but more amusing, not really.  None of the Republicans were inmates.

In 2008 Obama only got 26.25% of the primary vote in Arkansas, and 29.92% in Kentucky.

Yes, but that was a contested primary; he wasn't the President without major opponents.

I don't think it's suprising that "any white guy" does well against Obama in parts (most) of the south.

I wrote that it was amusing, not surprising.

[Karl Henning]

Amusing, yes, but more amusing, not really.  None of the Republicans were inmates.

Yet.

[Todd]

Yet.

Future convictions don't count.  Ask John Edwards.

[Karl Henning]

It's a fair cop.

[Todd]

NEWS FLASH ! ! !
   
Obama campaign is buying a lot of internet ads.

[Wendell_E]

Yes, but that was a contested primary; he wasn't the President without major opponents.

But he's still African-American.  He could cure every disease out there, halt global warming, end world hunger, fix the economy, bring worldwide peace, and give us all ponies that fart glitter, and a lot of these crackers down here would still say "We ain't vote fer ya before, and we ain't votin' fer ya agin, durnit!"

[Karl Henning]

I don't know. Glitter-fart draught horses could seal the deal.

[Todd]

But he's still African-American.

Yeah, I got that.  He's black.  And of course enlightened Democrats will say, repeatedly, that a lot of people won't vote for him because of that reason, and that reason alone.  That's true.  But there may be more to it than that.  And of course, these were the Democratic primaries where Democrats were voting.  I guess one can surmise that the 42% of Democrats who did not vote for Obama in Kentucky were all racists.  Why else might they choose not to vote for him?  It certainly makes for a convenient, easy response from enlightened Democrats.