Objective review of the US 2012 Presidential and Congressional general campaign

[Karl Henning]

Tuesday will tell whether one set of polls is skewed, or the other delusional ; )

[Daverz]

So the real contest is between UnSkewed Polls and Intrade . . .

Nate Silver would be who the UnSkewed polls guy is trying to counter.  You can google "nate silver effeminate" for the tawdry details.

Intrade has Obama as a 2:1 favorite.  Nate Silver says 4:1.  It looks like Sam Wang is currently saying something like 24:1 (!). 

[Todd]

You can google "nate silver effeminate" for the tawdry details.

I have more important things to attend to. 

I like Intrade since it relies on people actually putting money on the table.  I'm still thinking that Obama wins by a small margin in the popular vote and a slightly larger margin in the electoral college.  I wouldn't mind seeing something to add a little spice to the result - Obama loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral college (or Romney does the same), or, better yet, a good old fashioned tie in the electoral college.  That would be sweet.

[Daverz]

I have more important things to attend to. 

So do I, but here we are.

The upshot is that the UnSkewed polls guy wrote an op-ed saying, basically, "Nate Silver is a fag, so what does he know."  Without mentioning that he was running a competing election prediction site.

[Karl Henning]

Ah, a man of integrity, then ; )

[TheGSMoeller]

I voted! 

[Karl Henning]

Good on ya!

[Scarpia]

I was listening to NPR today, and there was someone pitching his book about Abraham Lincoln.  He was claiming that whoever is elected president could learn a lot from Lincoln, who succeeded in times that were even more divisive than now. 

Huh?  Whoever is elected should precipitate a civil war?

[Daverz]

I was listening to NPR today, and there was someone pitching his book about Abraham Lincoln.  We was claiming that whoever is elected president could learn a lot from Lincoln, who succeeded in times that were even more divisive than now.

Huh?  Whoever is elected should precipitate a civil war?

Um, you've heard of Fort Sumter, right?

A super PAC has started running ads trying to get black votes for Romney by reminding them that Lincoln freed the slaves.  I am not joking.   I guess they are assuming the GOP base won't see the ads (they were spotted on MSNBC).

[bwv 1080]

just remember that unless you live in one of the four or five battleground states or there is a tight senate race in your state, your vote in the national elections is worthless (most all the house races are gerrymandered to be noncompetitive).   

and battleground states aside, if you live in Wyoming, Vermont or Washington DC your vote for president counts about 3 times as much than if you live in CA, NY or TX

[Gurn Blanston]

just remember that unless you live in one of the four or five battleground states or there is a tight senate race in your state, your vote in the national elections is worthless (most all the house races are gerrymandered to be noncompetitive).   

and battleground states aside, if you live in Wyoming, Vermont or Washington DC your vote for president counts about 3 times as much than if you live in CA, NY or TX

I think I am the only (white) person in the entire Piney Woods voting for Obama. I am doing it solely to cancel out my wife's vote... As you say, in Texas our votes count for nothing. 

[Scarpia]

just remember that unless you live in one of the four or five battleground states or there is a tight senate race in your state, your vote in the national elections is worthless (most all the house races are gerrymandered to be noncompetitive).

Nonsense.  If you are in a state which is firmly in one column or the other, the confidence that your candidate has in the support of your state allows him or her to direct resources to other, more tightly contested states.  You support counts in that way.

The unequal weight associated with the electoral college is absurd, I agree.

[Brian]

Proof that any insult is fair game on the internet: I just found a politics-article commenter, on the Guardian no less, accusing FDR of being a National Socialist.

[Todd]

I just found a politics-article commenter, on the Guardian no less, accusing FDR of being a National Socialist.

I see.

[Gurn Blanston]

I see.

Then you are ahead of me, as usual.   

[Daverz]

just remember that unless you live in one of the four or five battleground states or there is a tight senate race in your state, your vote in the national elections is worthless (most all the house races are gerrymandered to be noncompetitive).

I suppose I could have safely voted for Roseanne, but I voted for Obama.  It's about as satisfying as a fart in the GOP's general direction, and about as effective.

Here in California our Congressional districts were recently redrawn, and it's looking like the district I'm now in, CA-52, may be a tossup:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/ca/california_52nd_district_bilbray_vs_peters-3290.html

Amusingly, Bilbray is the incumbent of the district I moved from several years ago.

The old district was heavily rural, and probably would have stayed Republican forever.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/CA/52

Soundtrack for the old CA-52:

http://www.youtube.com/v/2nGw_vAnqPI

Even more important is the usual mixed bag of propositions.  There always seems to be at least one cynically deceptive proposition every election, so each one needs to be researched.

[bwv 1080]

Three states - CO, WA and OR have marijuana legalization on the ballot, which is more interesting to me than the presidential election. unlike California, none of these states are run by a prison guards union, so there is some real hope for reform

[Daverz]

Three states - CO, WA and OR have marijuana legalization on the ballot, which is more interesting to me than the presidential election. unlike California, none of these states are run by a prison guards union, so there is some real hope for reform

I think the most important CA proposition is 36, which modifies the 3 strikes law. 

[bwv 1080]

I think the most important CA proposition is 36, which modifies the 3 strikes law. 

That can't be popular with the prison guards union

[ibanezmonster]

I think I am the only (white) person in the entire Piney Woods voting for Obama.

I can believe this...