Predictions for classical music 10 years from now

[gutstrings]

Nearly all topics try to predict where things are heading... politics, sports, the sciences...

So here's my guess... Asia, especially China, South Korea, Japan will continue to make big strides in interpreting and composing contemporary western classical music.  We are long overdue for a significant and profound giant, someone to achieve what Ligeti has in the 20th century, and the sheer numbers of talented eastern musicians will give us an uber-genius. Classical will once again command respect. Western civilization, especially in the US will largely remain a rock n roll (and its variants) nation, but will also counter with a new form of Jazz.  Unusual electronic instruments will be accepted. It will be chaotic-- too many new voices all introduced at once. Brain Wave music ("wave" for short) both composed by thought alone, and listened to from electrodes emanating from your smartphone will be everywhere, until hackers steal your ideas and modify the content. All music will be stored in NSA archives...a modern-day form of fossilization, to be retrieved at studied many generations from now.

[jochanaan]

I think the orchestra as we know it will cease to exist, except for festivals.  Chamber groups, chamber orchestras and solo artists will continue to flourish and interesting new music will be written for them.  Perhaps the future lies with small, flexible ensembles such as the University of Denver's Playground Ensemble...

Opera companies may also have to compete with smaller, more flexible musical theater companies, maybe even "non-landed" companies that perform in any space they can use or sneak into...

In short, I foresee a backlash against big, hidebound organizations in favor of smaller, more innovative and flexible groups.

[Todd]

I'm pretty certain that in ten years, people will be contemplating the imminent demise of the classical recording industry, and the more precarious than ever financial situation of orchestras, opera houses, and music schools.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

I think the orchestra as we know it will cease to exist, except for festivals.  Chamber groups, chamber orchestras and solo artists will continue to flourish and interesting new music will be written for them.

This is also what I expect to see. Some long-standing orchestras in some of the more depressed cities will go bust as their funding dries up and audience dies off. They will continue to exist in the major cities, but will have to be more flexible and innovative to attract audiences.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. Municipal orchestras didn't even exist when Mozart and Beethoven were around, and look how many orchestral pieces they wrote.

[Karl Henning]

This is not necessarily a bad thing. Municipal orchestras didn't even exist when Mozart and Beethoven were around, and look how many orchestral pieces they wrote.

That's not necessarily an encouraging thought, since they both enjoyed socially outdated sources of support

And not completely true in Beethoven's case: "The Philharmonic Society of London originally commissioned the [ninth] symphony in 1817."

[Cato]

Problems exist to be sure, and not just in America.  Yet I attend concerts e.g. in Toledo, Ohio, and always see a good number of young people - in a cathedral! - to hear Bruckner's symphonies, most recently the Symphony #0, and not there under duress with teachers or parents!  At the Toledo Symphony's regular concert hall we saw a good number of 30-something parents, who had brought their children to a Mahler Fifth Symphony concert.

So who knows?  The Balkanization of tastes and interests is everywhere, and the illogical desire to want everything to be "free" does not help.  Such trends do not help.

[some guy]

Ten years seems a modest amount of time.

In ten years, we'll know.

In the meantime, what about today? How many people have any idea at all aside from what the mega-magazines tell them* what's going on right now? Asking what's going to be happening ten or fifty or a hundred years from now seems to me a pretty plain stratagem for avoiding dealing with the present.

*I am aware of how funny it sounds to call Gramophone or BBC magazine "mega."