Topic: Brexit Negotiations.

[Mandryka]

What Que says is very much to the point. The "national story" that I was taught was of a Britain which, alone in  Europe, was strong enough to resist invasion and save the world from the Germans. With help from the USA, our natural and eternal friend and ally. The peace keeping aspect of the EC is rather marginal to how I was brought up to think and feel.

[Florestan]

If Hitler had occupied Switzerland, it would have been a member of the EU long, long time ago...

I'm not so sure. See Norway, occupied by Hitler yet reluctant to join the EU. Conversely, Spain and Portugal joined the EU although they were never occupied by the Nazis.

[Jo498]

Modern power is usually wielded not by occupation but by the marginally softer tools of bureaucracy, treaties and especially economic power. (It was already known by Wagner's Wotan that treaties are usually more powerful than swords.)

I think the peace-keeping function of the EU is largely a pretension. The peace in Europe was kept because of the Cold War and a Hot War would have devastated most of the continent or the world. After the Eastern bloc collapsed the EU couldn't do anything to prevent wars at its southeastern border in former Yugoslavia. And we have happily engaged in smallish wars far away ever since the late 1990s.

And of course nowadays there is no larger danger of a war of France with the Swiss or Norwegians than with the Spanish.

[Florestan]

treaties are usually more powerful than swords.

Except when they are not. 

[Christo]

I'm not so sure. See Norway, occupied by Hitler yet reluctant to join the EU. Conversely, Spain and Portugal joined the EU although they were never occupied by the Nazis.

Both Switzerland and Norway are part of the EU system in all major respects (and totally unlike the consequences of Brexit); and Spain and Portugal had to deal with Nazi-sponsored regimes to become hard-won democracies in the late 1970s only. Those experiences loom large enough and help to explain their present European orientation.

[Florestan]

Both Switzerland and Norway are part of the EU system in all major respects

Except they are not EU members.

Spain and Portugal had to deal with Nazi-sponsored regimes

Hitler's military help to Franco might indeed qualify as sponsorship, but how was Salazar, an outspoken enemy of Nazism, sponsored by the Nazis?

[Que]

Guys, there be other reasons to stay out, or to get in.... 

Norway is part of the internal market and other arrangements (like Schengen (=common travel area)), but stayed out because of its fishery interests, its huge oil reserves played a role as well. These issues might be a future issue for an independent Scotland as well, though time has moved on...

The Swiss are not part of the internal market and are connected to the EU by a myriad of bilateral agreements.
Swiss politicians have urged the Swiss people to join the EU several times, but they stick to the wartime fairytale that they are better off alone and that joining any alliance would be against Swiss interest.

Q

[Que]

And the excruciating Brexit saga continues.....

Drama, delay, anticlimax – big day ends in confusion as Letwin’s amendment scuppers Johnson’s Brexit plan

A short summary of events unfolding...

Johnson threw the DUP (hardline Northern Irish Protestant unionists) under bus and agreed a new exit deal with the EU that contsins a special customs' arrangement for Northern Ireland. Johnson was close to a parliamentary majority for his deal, aided by general Brexit fatigue. Some MP's are now ready to vote for any deal, just "to get it over with". Which is a misconception BTW: even if Johnson secures this exit deal, it's not over - not by a long shot...

But the UK parliament voted for another delay of the final exit vote, until all necessary legislation implementing the deal is in place. This out of fear that hardline Brexiteers, once they secured the exit from the EU would sabotage the implementation of the deal to achieve a no-deal Brexit.

Johnson has sent the by law required letter to the EU to request for an extension. But he didn't sign the letter, and sent another one in which he argues against an extension. It is not my field of legal expertise, but I wouldn't be surprised of that constitutes a breach of his obligations under law and a contempt of parliament.

What happens now? The thing with delays is that they open the door to all kinds if possibilities.
Johnson will soon put the matter to another vote. Will the speaker of parliament allow him to do so?
Will the EU grant the extension? Probably so.
Will a required confirmatory popular vote in a 2nd referendum be attached to a parliamentary consent to the exit deal? Not unlikely....
Will there be general elections once Johnson's 2nd attempt fails and the EU agrees to an extension? Probably...

So my guess is: general elections and perhaps a second referendum.

And mind you: this is just the drama about getting out of the EU....
Nothing has yet been agreed about the UK's future relationship with the EU, which could be very close (Norway) or not so close (Canada). Those negotiations are next....

Q

[Irons]

And the excruciating Brexit saga continues.....

Drama, delay, anticlimax – big day ends in confusion as Letwin’s amendment scuppers Johnson’s Brexit plan

A short summary of events unfolding...

Johnson threw the DUP (hardline Northern Irish Protestant unionists) under bus and agreed a new exit deal with the EU that contsins a special customs' arrangement for Northern Ireland. Johnson was close to a parliamentary majority for his deal, aided by general Brexit fatigue. Some MP's are now ready to vote for any deal, just "to get it over with". Which is a misconception BTW: even if Johnson secures this exit deal, it's not over - not by a long shot...

But the UK parliament voted for another delay of the final exit vote, until all necessary legislation implementing the deal is in place. This out of fear that hardline Brexiteers, once they secured the exit from the EU would sabotage the implementation of the deal to achieve a no-deal Brexit.

Johnson has sent the by law required letter to the EU to request for an extension. But he didn't sign the letter, and sent another one in which he argues against an extension. It is not my field of legal expertise, but I wouldn't be surprised of that constitutes a breach of his obligations under law and a contempt of parliament.

What happens now? The thing with delays is that they open the door to all kinds if possibilities.
Johnson will soon put the matter to another vote. Will the speaker of parliament allow him to do so?
Will the EU grant the extension? Probably so.
Will a required confirmatory popular vote in a 2nd referendum be attached to a parliamentary consent to the exit deal? Not unlikely....
Will there be general elections once Johnson's 2nd attempt fails and the EU agrees to an extension? Probably...

So my guess is: general elections and perhaps a second referendum.

And mind you: this is just the drama about getting out of the EU....
Nothing has yet been agreed about the UK's future relationship with the EU, which could be very close (Norway) or not so close (Canada). Those negotiations are next....

Q

It could be said that the one thrown under a bus is Johnson. Again Guardian: https://uk.yahoo.com/news/dup-humiliated-westminster-northern-ireland-172036505.html

[Que]

It could be said that the one thrown under a bus is Johnson. Again Guardian: https://uk.yahoo.com/news/dup-humiliated-westminster-northern-ireland-172036505.html

True.  Let's say Johnson and the DUP fell out...
Not that I  think Johnson had much choice BTW, if he wanted a deal with the EU.
He himself didn't want the whole of the UK in closer alignment with the EU, as May agreed.
So the only other option that would also be acceptable to the EU, was a special arrangement for NI, which was softened to keep NI in a customs union with the rest of the UK.

Q

[Irons]

True.  Let's say Johnson and the DUP fell out...
Not that I  think Johnson had much choice BTW, if he wanted a deal with the EU.
He himself didn't want the whole of the UK in closer alignment with the EU, as May agreed.
So the only other option that would also be acceptable to the EU, was a special arrangement for NI, which was softened to keep NI in a customs union with the rest of the UK.

Q

Agreed. The word “backstop” grew to mythical proportions and supposedly the reason Mays’s deal was unacceptable. Boris managed to negotiate this out of the deal but as you say there must be some give and take, The EU has been reasonable over the Irish situation and as Merkel said it was a UK problem not EU. I think Boris thought he had the DUP on side but it wasn’t to be.