Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[drogulus]

I agree, however, that the US and European / EU policies in the Middle East (a misnomer, btw --- where is then the Near East?) have been an unmitigated disaster ever since the end of WWI.

     The Near East has been a disaster. We haven't come up with a policy that can undo it. I note though that oil policy has not caused us to incur a million casualties, and that the greatest loss of life came from the Iraq-Iran war.

     Syrian dead are piling up. Obama was persuaded to be peaceful after he drew his line. That might have been for the best, except for Syrians. Our peace is not for them.

     What we're doing to the Earth has no parallel in 66 million years, scientists say

     Rep. Lamar Smith assures us that the Liberal Hoax is just a few emails away from being uncovered. Silly planet!

[Brian]

     Cruz is in a hopeless situation unless the party machinations start to pick off Trump delegates.

Not necessarily - not at all. Cruz is in a bad situation, but not a hopeless one. The reason it's bad is that Cruz needs more or less everything to go his way from here on out. He needs to win all of he states he's expected to win, and he needs to follow an every-delegate strategy where his campaign tactics in each state are dictated by how that state awards delegates. (e.g. some states are by congressional district, not statewide.)

Then, there are the dozens of uncommitted delegates. As of this morning, for instance, American Samoa decided its 9 are uncommitted. 9 is a lot in a race as close as this one. Cruz needs to win over some of these, and he needs the support of delegates who had pledged to Rubio and his newest endorser, Jeb!. A combination of delegate recruitment and performing slightly better than expected should keep Trump 60-70 delegates shy of the nomination, which is enough to force at least 2 votes at the convention. Unless Trump becomes the Art of the Deal impresario he claims to be.

Winning all the delegates from Utah is a decent start. But this is such a razor-thin race that Cruz has zero room for error. He needs to play all his cards perfectly and probably needs a bit of good luck, but he's not hopeless.

[Karl Henning]

Not necessarily - not at all. Cruz is in a bad situation, but not a hopeless one. The reason it's bad is that Cruz needs more or less everything to go his way from here on out. He needs to win all of he states he's expected to win, and he needs to follow an every-delegate strategy where his campaign tactics in each state are dictated by how that state awards delegates. (e.g. some states are by congressional district, not statewide.)

Then, there are the dozens of uncommitted delegates. As of this morning, for instance, American Samoa decided its 9 are uncommitted. 9 is a lot in a race as close as this one. Cruz needs to win over some of these, and he needs the support of delegates who had pledged to Rubio and his newest endorser, Jeb!. A combination of delegate recruitment and performing slightly better than expected should keep Trump 60-70 delegates shy of the nomination, which is enough to force at least 2 votes at the convention. Unless Trump becomes the Art of the Deal impresario he claims to be.

Winning all the delegates from Utah is a decent start. But this is such a razor-thin race that Cruz has zero room for error. He needs to play all his cards perfectly and probably needs a bit of good luck, but he's not hopeless.

I think that's fair.  And may be an argument for having Kasich retire from the field.

[Gurn Blanston]

I think that's fair.  And may be an argument for having Kasich retire from the field.

Sure, that would be perfect in this election cycle; get rid of the only sane guy....    

[drogulus]

Winning all the delegates from Utah is a decent start. But this is such a razor-thin race that Cruz has zero room for error. He needs to play all his cards perfectly and probably needs a bit of good luck, but he's not hopeless.

    If every Kasich delegate goes to Cruz he has just over 600. I think it's hopeless unless. If it's left to the results of primaries and caucuses Trump either wins outright or gets 96% (latest tally). One would have to think that there would be no substantial number of delegates hoping to throw the convention open to somehow avoid the Trump/Cruz choice. The party machine reluctantly has gone for Cruz as least extinctionary. Cruz risks national collapse, Trump is national collapse of the party. Unlike Warren/Sanders, Trump is a bottom up revolt. For the Dems, I think half or more of the party machinery who back Hillary for the win out of loyalty and pragmatism would like to see the party move towards the insurgent movement, which is actually closer to its historical commitments. The situation is therefore quite different than the hijacking of a party by a celebrity personality.

[Karl Henning]

Sure, that would be perfect in this election cycle; get rid of the only sane guy....    

Sanity isn't selling to the GOP electorate this cycle   

[drogulus]

     3 years ago, Republicans released an 'autopsy report' — but Donald Trump already shattered it

[Brian]

Sure, that would be perfect in this election cycle; get rid of the only sane guy....    

Are you sure he's sane? "John Kasich Hated Movie 'Fargo' So Much He Demanded Blockbuster Stop Renting It"

[Gurn Blanston]

Are you sure he's sane?

Sure, but as opposed to who? I can't even list the cons here...

[Karl Henning]

Are you sure he's sane? "John Kasich Hated Movie 'Fargo' So Much He Demanded Blockbuster Stop Renting It"

Coen Bros. FTW!  A deliciously subversive movie, that just got yet more delicious.

[Madiel]

Are you sure he's sane?

Relatively.

[Karl Henning]

But if it takes comparison to El Tupé & Cruz for you to appear sane . . . .

[Todd]

Our peace is not for them.

Yep.  American peace is more important than Syrian peace. 

Cruz is in a bad situation, but not a hopeless one.

Hope springs eternal. 

[Madiel]

But if it takes comparison to El Tupé & Cruz for you to appear sane . . . .

When it comes to climate change and Islamic terrorism, he can be compared to a considerable number of members of his party and appear sane. It's not everything, but it's a good start.

[snyprrr]

Sure, but as opposed to who? I can't even list the cons here...

uh... friends with Gary Condit... hint hint...


just look at kasich- he's got the "I know where bodies are buried" look-


puh-leeze

[drogulus]

Yep.  American peace is more important than Syrian peace. 

     Yes, but not because it's peace, but because it's American. American war is more important than Syrian war. That doesn't tell you if the wars are the same or not. We left Iraq and Syria to ISIS for your kind of peace. Did we get peace? Sure, it's only Brussels now, who cares about them, they're only slightly more important than Syrians. Californians, though, are almost real Americans, some people would claim not to know the difference.

[Todd]

We left Iraq and Syria to ISIS for your kind of peace. Did we get peace?

Nope.  The Second Iraq War was a disaster and is the root, or at least catalyst, of the current situation.  It should not have happened, and it offers a warning against foolish interventionism, whether of the liberal interventionist, neo-con, or old fashioned imperialist sort.  Obama's current strategy is better than anything else being offered publicly.  But the urge to do more, to be tough, is overwhelming.  If Hillary is our next President, there will be more toughness.  Maybe she will play The Fabulous Thunderbirds at her coronation inauguration.

And I would have thought the Somalia strike from a couple weeks ago and the Yemen strike today was tough enough, but no, it's not tough enough.

[Pat B]

Although there are a lot of people in the US killed accidentally by children playing with guns etc. there is a difference: Most of the people killed not accidentally with guns are young (often petty) criminals (frequently also wielding weapons). Whereas with terrorist attacks you can be a respectable citizen walking respectably around the train station and get shot or blown up.

That's why these suicide bombings are are more terrifying than shootings in the US.

I disagree. The reason terrorist attacks are terrifying is that they are rare and therefore newsworthy. Gun accidents and car crashes are not terrifying; they are mundane. That doesn't mean they aren't relatively dangerous even for "respectable" citizens.

[Pat B]

Not necessarily - not at all. Cruz is in a bad situation, but not a hopeless one. The reason it's bad is that Cruz needs more or less everything to go his way from here on out. He needs to win all of he states he's expected to win, and he needs to follow an every-delegate strategy where his campaign tactics in each state are dictated by how that state awards delegates. (e.g. some states are by congressional district, not statewide.)

Then, there are the dozens of uncommitted delegates. As of this morning, for instance, American Samoa decided its 9 are uncommitted. 9 is a lot in a race as close as this one. Cruz needs to win over some of these, and he needs the support of delegates who had pledged to Rubio and his newest endorser, Jeb!. A combination of delegate recruitment and performing slightly better than expected should keep Trump 60-70 delegates shy of the nomination, which is enough to force at least 2 votes at the convention. Unless Trump becomes the Art of the Deal impresario he claims to be.

Winning all the delegates from Utah is a decent start. But this is such a razor-thin race that Cruz has zero room for error. He needs to play all his cards perfectly and probably needs a bit of good luck, but he's not hopeless.

My understanding is that the delegates are chosen by the party, not by the campaigns. In most states they are obligated to vote as bound for the first one or two ballots but not after that. I have heard that Cruz has been working to get his loyalists installed as Trump-bound delegates so that he can win a contested convention on the second or third ballot.

This could get really ugly.

[Karl Henning]

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have gone full caveman