Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[Gurn Blanston]

I thought wifes and husbands are supposed to defend each other...

It would be a 'family values' virtue among the Republican base under any other circumstances.

[Karl Henning]

The only thing more frustrating to root for other than a Donald Trump presidential win is a Cubs World Series victory.

Go Cubs!

Let the Cubs be themselves!

[San Antone]

Let the Cubs be themselves!

In that case, all is lost.

[zamyrabyrd]

I thought wifes and husbands are supposed to defend each other...

There is a big difference between legitimate defense and enabling the addiction of one's spouse. After listening to Juanita Brodderick's account of what Mr. Clinton did to her in 1978, this could only be a bonafide illness. This is almost 40 years ago, however. Wasn't there any intelligent person around (like college educated) who could have recognized he had a problem and taken steps to do something about it? This is really crazy.

Crazier that it didn't end there. The Oval Office in the White House wasn't sacred. There are addictions that may have less impact on other than one's family, like gambling or substance abuse but of course could lead to stealing or DUI accidents. However, sexual addiction is criminal by its very nature in that it has victims, either in the family or outside. How this mutton-head got away with it all this time is mind-boggling, except "capital punishment" for the rich and powerful is: "When you have capital, you don't get punishment".

To wit, a person like Martha Stewart allegedly lied to the FBI once and had to spend a year in the can. Shillery gets to continuously lie while cocking a snook at the laws to the applause of her cheering crowds. Absolutely NUTS!!!

[Karl Henning]

...Put this all together, and you get a picture of a businessman who's done everything he can to enrich himself — at times going outside the bounds of the law. And he doesn't seem to care if the people around him do the same. That presents a very serious threat to American norms against corruption.

"Americans pride themselves on our politicians' respect for the rule of law, on the checks and balances that protect us from the powerful," Ezra Klein wrote earlier this year. "But as often as not, our real protection is found not in laws but in norms."

And that's the deeper problem underlying all this — that Trump has repeatedly shown he has little respect for norms of ethical or acceptable behavior.

[Karl Henning]

In that case, all is lost.

Nooo!

Congratulations to Cleveland, by the way.

[Karl Henning]

Donald Trump's backers have been reduced to suggesting groping may not be sexual assault

Defending Donald Trump is a full-time job. And it's thankless. But rarely does it force Republicans to take such a tortured and ill-advised position as this.

Trump's defenders are now quibbling with the idea that his hot-mic moment — in which Trump said "grab them by the p---y" when talking about being able to do what he wanted with women — described sexual assault.

[zamyrabyrd]

And that's the deeper problem underlying all this — that Trump has repeatedly shown he has little respect for norms of ethical or acceptable behavior.[/url][/i]

The truth will set everyone free in the end. Billy should also go to jail for rape. In Arkansas during his term, the "three strikes and you're out" policy was instituted for life imprisonment no matter what the offense was.
Like Don Juan, he has quite a list of women he violated but with his wife enabling the master, harassing his victims and keeping score for him. This scandal might finally bite her back as it is far worse than "locker room" talk. 

[Zeus]

Just four more weeks until...
Trump => Ignore

Soon disgusting Trump will be just another unpleasant memory, like the OJ Simpson trial or the Jerry Springer show.

It is important to remember in the midst of this freak show that there are decent people out there. 

Like Warren Buffett, for one. Trump casually and shamelessly lied about Buffett's taxes in the middle of the debate; Buffett quickly and politely shot him down.

Buffett, who knows far more about running businesses than Trump ever will, has been cheerfully paying his federal income taxes every year for 72 years, and has never bothered trying to dodge them (except for reinvesting all profits at Berkshire Hathaway).

Buffett happily paid $3.5 million in taxes last year, and gave away (to a real charity, mind you) a whopping $2.8 billion.

Buffett not only knows more about running businesses than Trump ever will, he also gives away *annually* more money than Trump will ever see.

And he happily supports Clinton!

Buffett once said when hiring a manager he looks for three things: intelligence, energy, and character.  Without character, the intelligence and energy will just come back to bite you.

So how do Trump and Clinton rate in intelligence, energy, and character?

Trump
Intelligence      B+
Energy         A
Character       F

Clinton
Intelligence      A-
Energy          B
Character       A-

Trump's character is on full display in all its wretchedness.  He's got the Republican party in a head-lock and is not letting up. God help us all if he gets the country in his grips.

Clinton is not perfect, but she would make a much better hire than Trump. Thankfully, this is understood by the majority of American voters.

So let me be the first to say:

Donald Who?

[San Antone]

This morning it struck me that for his entire career as a businessman Donald Trump learned that he could enhance his brand by 1) never admitting defeat or making a mistake despite the objective record of a deal's failure and 2) to never apologize, instead double down and go on the attack.  For the last 40 years as a New York businessman those tactics worked.  Why?  Because there was no real accounting and the battles were short term. 

However, a presidential campaign is an altogether different kind of beast.  It requires over a year of campaigning with marathon style pacing, clear and consistent messaging, fund raising, perceptive analysis of the polling and management of the press - all of which culminates with a winner-take-all reckoning on Election Day.  Everything about his previous experience left Trump not only unprepared for this kind of challenge but having learned precisely the wrong lessons from the past.

There were two moments where I think his old tricks put him on the path to defeat: The week after the Democratic convention when he attacked the Khan family; then during and after the first debate.  He had a good convention, got a nice bounce but then lost it with the attacks on the Khans for really something he should have ignored.  By the time of the first debate he had finally regained his competitive position after the Khan mistake because of Kelly Ann Conway's management of his campaign: strong messaging and more rhetorical discipline.  In fact he had all the momentum and Clinton was sinking in the polls.  But, his arrogant lack of preparation for the first debate led to his horrible performance. Then his escalating bad behavior for the next week or two compounded his poor performance.  His attempts to correct this downward trajectory has so far proven to be been too little too late. 

Hence with three weeks to go, Donald Trump has positioned himself to suffer a humiliating defeat, for himself and the Republican party.   A defeat for which he cannot blow smoke by claiming victory afterwards, although I am sure he will attempt something of the sort.  This defeat will have many mothers but really it is all on Trump.

Of course in my opinion the real loser is the country.

[Karl Henning]

Warren Buffett, for one. Trump casually lies about Buffett's taxes; Buffett quickly and politely shoots him down.

Buffett, who knows far more about running businesses than Trump ever will, has been cheerfully paying his federal income taxes every year for 72 years, and has never bothered trying to dodge them (except for reinvesting all profits at Berkshire Hathaway).

Buffett happily paid $3.5 million in taxes last year, and gave away (to a real charity, mind you) a whopping $2.8 billion.

Buffett not only knows more about running businesses than Trump ever will, he also gives away annually more money than Trump will ever see.

And he happily supports Clinton!

Separately, Monica Lewinsky is voting for Hillary Clinton.

[Karl Henning]

    No, I hazard a guess that it's not. But I did refer to snopes in my own vastly superior comment on the misuse of this video snippet.

I bow to your superiority in this, Ernie.

[Brian]

This morning it struck me that for his entire career as a businessman Donald Trump learned that he could enhance his brand by 1) never admitting defeat or making a mistake despite the objective record of a deal's failure and 2) to never apologize, instead double down and go on the attack.  For the last 40 years as a New York businessman those tactics worked.  Why?  Because there was no real accounting and the battles were short term. 

However, a presidential campaign is an altogether different kind of beast.  It requires over a year of campaigning with marathon style pacing, clear and consistent messaging, fund raising, perceptive analysis of the polling and management of the press - all of which culminates with a winner-take-all reckoning on Election Day.  Everything about his previous experience left Trump not only unprepared for this kind of challenge but having learned precisely the wrong lessons from the past.

There were two moments where I think his old tricks put him on the path to defeat: The week after the Democratic convention when he attacked the Khan family; then during and after the first debate.  He had a good convention, got a nice bounce but then lost it with the attacks on the Khans for really something he should have ignored.  By the time of the first debate he had finally regained his competitive position after the Khan mistake because of Kelly Ann Conway's management of his campaign: strong messaging and more rhetorical discipline.  In fact he had all the momentum and Clinton was sinking in the polls.  But, his arrogant lack of preparation for the first debate led to his horrible performance. Then his escalating bad behavior for the next week or two compounded his poor performance.  His attempts to correct this downward trajectory has so far proven to be been too little too late. 

Hence with three weeks to go, Donald Trump has positioned himself to suffer a humiliating defeat, for himself and the Republican party.   A defeat for which he cannot blow smoke by claiming victory afterwards, although I am sure he will attempt something of the sort.  This defeat will have many mothers but really it is all on Trump.

This is a great post that I appreciated reading - it gets to the heart of the problem, which is that running a campaign is running a major enterprise, a big business operation, and you're right - Trump had exactly the wrong kind of business experience for it. In fact, frankly, his campaign has been incompetent when it wasn't in the hands of Conway. (Apparently Stephen Bannon has been gaining influence, the past week or two.)

In private enterprise, Trump was always moving on to the next thing, grabbing headlines with some bold scheme, banking on people forgetting about the last one - Trump Shuttle, the casinos, the attempt to build the world's tallest building in 80s New York - and despite many of those projects failing, he was able to build a reputation through sheer activity, force of personality, and unceasing determination. As a politician that doesn't work the same way. In particular, the fact that his campaign and personality are geared to appeal very specifically to 35% of the population, while alienating 50%, is one fatal flaw which has not changed since Day 1.

[Karl Henning]

Agree with Brian, overall good post, sananton'.  Though I note that what you call a good convention, Geo. Will today diagnosed as a mini-Nuremberg rally for Republicans whose three-word recipe for making America great again was the shriek "Lock her up!" This presaged his banana-republican vow to imprison his opponent.

(RTWT here, if you wish.)

[San Antone]

Agree with Brian, overall good post, sananton'.  Though I note that what you call a good convention, Geo. Will today diagnosed as a mini-Nuremberg rally for Republicans whose three-word recipe for making America great again was the shriek "Lock her up!" This presaged his banana-republican vow to imprison his opponent.

(RTWT here, if you wish.)

Hah.  I meant "good" in that he got a bounce.  Yep, the Trump brand in two foot letters is a bit over the top.

[Karl Henning]

Hah.  I meant "good" in that he got a bounce.  Yep, the Trump brand in two foot letters is a bit over the top.

Spoken like a gentleman! 

[PerfectWagnerite]

Anyone read this article

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/opinion/donald-trumps-sad-lonely-life.html?_r=0

This just about summarizes it all:

Trump's emotional makeup means he can hit only a few notes: fury and aggression. In some ways, his debate performances look like primate dominance displays — filled with chest beating and looming growls. But at least primates have bands to connect with, whereas Trump is so alone, if a tree fell in his emotional forest, it would not make a sound.

[Karl Henning]

Ooga booga.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

For the first time in its nearly 50-year history, Foreign Policy has endorsed a presidential candidate, adding its voice to the growing chorus of publications breaking with tradition to support Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

I guess the respectable establishmentarians at Foreign Policy aren't too bothered by moments like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlz3-OzcExI

[The new erato]

Being bothered is far better than being scared shitless!