Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[(poco) Sforzando]

Weren´t the structure of the Electoral College and the gerrymandering exactly the same when Bill Clinton or Barrack Obama won the presidency? Just asking, I´m no Trump fan.

The EC, of course. But the gerrymandering has been subtly but relentlessly advancing since Clinton's time. My district was restructured midway through Obama's first term.

[(poco) Sforzando]

I agree, it's no landslide.  However, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, electors are chosen on a "winner take all" basis for each state, so gerrymandering really has nothing to do with it.

Agreed, but it affects down-ballet races.

[Florestan]

the gerrymandering has been subtly but relentlessly advancing since Clinton's time. My district was restructured midway through Obama's first term.

I see. Who is in charge of designing / restructuring the districts? The Congress?

[Spineur]

A propos: what about next year´s French presidential elections? Does Marine Le Pen have any chance of winning? I imagine she is now hoping big, high and bold.

Making projections has become pretty hazardous these days.  However, Juppé is doing very well in the primaries and his rivals (Sarkozy excepted) are now courting him as they want to be in his government.  Juppé is a center/right guy and most of the socialists will vote fo him.  What cant easily be measured is the tailwind all this world populism will give to Marine Le Pen.  In the recent regional elections, people thought the National Front would get 4 regions, and they got none.  But Brussels detestation is pretty high all over Europe, so who really knows.

[Florestan]

Making projections has become pretty hazardous these days.  However, Juppé is doing very well in the primaries and his rivals (Sarkozy excepted) are now courting him as they want to be in his government.  Juppé is a center/right guy and most of the socialists will vote fo him.  What cant easily be measured is the tailwind all this world populism will give to Marine Le Pen.  In the recent regional elections, people thought the National Front would get 4 regions, and they got none.  But Brussels detestation is pretty high all over Europe, so who really knows.

I see. I guess we´ll have to wait and see while keepings the fingers crossed.

[Madiel]

I see. Who is in charge of designing / restructuring the districts? The Congress?

Nope. In most States it's the State legislature.

Which is appalling. It's appalling in both directions, though I understand more often the gerrymandering is in favour of Republicans. But the fact that so few of the States have an independent electoral commission determining the boundaries of districts is ridiculous for a modern democracy. The conflict of interest is obvious.

[Madiel]

I mean, take a look at these electoral maps. Ridiculous.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/

[ahinton]

It is also a wake-up call, maybe the last one, for the EU political establishment.

It might well be, at least to the extent that it is likely to give succour and encouragement to extremist factions in France, Germany and the Netherlands in advance of their respective elections next year; that said, if last night's outcome and any electoral successes for those extremists in those EU member states eventually lead to the break-up of EU, UK will end up with a large quantity of very expensive egg on its face for having spent vast amounts of time, energy and money in trying to leave an EU that no longer exists.

I've yet to hear the President's views on last night. President Putin, that is. Who's to say that Trump decides to abandon the Mexico wall nonsense in favour of building the Bering bridge?...

[Florestan]

I mean, take a look at these electoral maps. Ridiculous.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/

That´s very confusing for me as a non-American. I understood almost nothing. To begin with, why on Earth should an electoral district be redesigned every number of years?

[The new erato]

That´s very confusing for me as a non-American. I understood almost nothing. To begin with, why on Earth should an electoral district be redesigned every number of years?

To organize the mix of voters so that the right candidate wins.

[Madiel]

That´s very confusing for me as a non-American. I understood almost nothing. To begin with, why on Earth should an electoral district be redesigned every number of years?

Redesign is necessary if the population shifts, to ensure that each electorate is roughly equal in population. In Australia we have rules that enable the (politically independent) electoral commissions to have a regular review of boundaries for this purpose.

However, in America they don't simply do it for that reason. They do it for the express purpose of ensuring that their own party gets more seats for less of the vote.

This'll help. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States

There's also a general article on gerrymandering, but no other country seems to have mastered it to the same degree.

[Jo498]

I don't understand US gerrymandering either but in Germany the districts have to be (not often, I think) slightly redesigned because each has to contain a roughly (not sure about the margin) similar number of voters so representation is fair. (A friend of mine wrote a 300p legal dissertation on the topic... so it is apparently somewhat important in Germany despite an entirely different voting system.)

[Mahlerian]

That´s very confusing for me as a non-American. I understood almost nothing. To begin with, why on Earth should an electoral district be redesigned every number of years?

Most Americans feel the same way.

Japan's prime minister has congratulated Trump, but the entire country over there seems on edge.

[Florestan]

The complications and dangers of the first-past-the-post system. Imo a proportional system is both fairer and easier to manage.

[ahinton]

To organinize the mix of voters so that the right candidate wins.

They've just effected that self-same cynical ploy in UK, so it's by no means confined to US.

[Madiel]

The complications and dangers of the first-past-the-post system. Imo a proportional system is both fairer and easier to manage.

Well, no, it's not simply a function of a first-past-the-post system, although that is one factor in designing crazy-looking electorates. Other countries have first-past-the-post voting, but can't have electoral boundaries of this kind because it's not the politicians who decide the boundaries.

[Madiel]

They've just effected that self-same cynical ploy in UK.

How? The UK has boundary commissions.

[ahinton]

How? The UK has boundary commissions.

...and has used that facility to effect boundary changes; I believe that these include expanding numerous electoral constituencies in order to reduce the number of MPs in the House of Commons from 650 to 600. The idea, though, was quite transparently to acquire electoral advantage for the party of government, as is always the case when such reorganisations are implemented.

[Madiel]

...and has used that facility to effect boundary changes; I believe that these include expanding numerous electoral constituencies in order to reduce the number of MPs in the House of Commons from 650 to 600. The idea, though, was quite transparently to acquire electoral advantage for the party of government, as is always the case when such reorganisations are implemented.

But changing the overall size of a parliament has absolutely nothing to do with gerrymandering.

Nor is it "always the case", having been through ones in Australia that haven't had any such effect.

[Karl Henning]

I absolutely understand why voters in certain regions are unhappy. What baffles me is that their chosen saviour of the workers is a billionaire with a reputation for not paying for work.

As I've said before, it's the henhouse expressing its dissatisfaction with roosters by voting for a fox. Bernie Sanders made sense as an outlet for that dissatisfaction. Trump does not.

The better con man won.