Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[Todd]

My turn is coming up:  Florida is a month away.  I will vote for Sanders, because he is not Hillary.

A sound reason.  By the time the Oregon primary happens, it will be too late to cast a meaningful vote, and Oregon will go blue in November even if the Democrats nominate a soggy mop, so my vote then won't matter.  Maybe time for a write-in. 

[drogulus]

     Trump has 65,000 votes, Hillary 65,000, Sanders 100,000, with 68% of Dems counted, 70% of Repubs. This reflects the fragmented Repub field somewhat, but mostly the fact that Sanders in N.H. is by far the most popular candidate in either party. Sanders has more votes than Trump and Kasich combined. That's remarkable.

[kishnevi]

     Trump has 65,000 votes, Hillary 65,000, Sanders 100,000, with 68% of Dems counted, 70% of Repubs. This reflects the fragmented Repub field somewhat, but mostly the fact that Sanders in N.H. is by far the most popular candidate in either party. Sanders has more votes than Trump and Kasich combined. That's remarkable.

Probably also reflects the fact that Sanders is, as they say in Brooklyn, a nextdoorikeh.  Instead of a favorite son, a favorite nephew.

[Karl Henning]

Oh fuck, the end really is nigh.

They are throwing everything at me except the kitchen sink and I have the feeling that the kitchen sink is coming pretty soon as well.

[Karl Henning]

My turn is coming up:  Florida is a month away.  I will vote for Sanders, because he is not Hillary.

Indeed, that is reason enow.

[Karl Henning]

So, what do we think?  True to the thread's title, could El Tupé be sailing to the nomination?

[Karl Henning]

But Trump moves to the next rounds with two advantages. After months of concentrating on individual battles in Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign shifts gears into one in which the states come thick and fast.

"That benefits a guy with a dominant national lead," said independent analyst Matthew Dowd. "The only way that changes is if somebody disrupts him in South Carolina." That primary will be held Feb. 20.

Trump's other advantage is his fractured opposition. The longer the field includes four or five other candidates, Trump can win states with roughly the same one-third of the vote that brought him a big victory here.

[Todd]

So, what do we think?  True to the thread's title, could El Tupé be sailing to the nomination?

The prediction markets seem to be changing their collective minds.  (Kind of calls into question the long-term value of a prediction market.)

If he gets it, who will be his running mate?

[Karl Henning]

Palin!

[North Star]

Palin!

[drogulus]

     Kasich is getting his moment. In his favor is that he won't crack like Rubio. His disadvantage is that he's widely respected. Can he overcome that?

     Ramesh Ponnuru makes some interesting points:

     What's the Anti-Trump Strategy Now?

     This could indeed be an extinction level event for the GOP. If Trump can't be stopped because he has a third or more of the Repub voters under any circumstances and against any opponents, then all that's left to beat him is a united front of conservative opposition and that means Cruz.

If he gets it, who will be his running mate?

     It will have to be someone who'd make a plausible President if.........OK, scratch that.

Palin!

     Which one do you have in mind? I know which one I'd like to see.

[Todd]

Ben Carson did say he was open to being Trump's VP . . .

[Karl Henning]

That banana is definitely feeling mavericky!

[Pat B]

So, what do we think?  True to the thread's title, could El Tupé be sailing to the nomination?

Right now it looks like the Rs are headed towards a brokered convention. Christie, Carson, and probably Fiorina will drop out soon, and I think the last debate was a Howard Dean moment for Marco Rubio (which might take him a while to compute), but I don't expect their supporters to coalesce around any of the remaining candidates.

But he might actually win a brokered convention. If he has a plurality of delegates, then that gives him a very credible threat to run as an independent, which is a lot of leverage. And if the #2 finisher is Cruz, the establishment doesn't like him either. In that scenario their choices will be Trump, or their #3 finisher in a 3-way race with whichever D and Trump. The latter choice would look a lot like a punt.

On the D side, check this out. If Clinton wins the nomination without winning the primaries it could get very ugly.

I lean towards Bloomberg over any of the Rs and Ds. But the only way he could actually win would be a 3-way race with Trump or Cruz and Sanders (not a 4-way race with Trump).

[Karl Henning]

On the D side, check this out. If Clinton wins the nomination without winning the primaries it could get very ugly.

Yes. The Coronation will not be televised.

[The new erato]

The thread title could turn out more true than probably envisaged, particularly on the GOP side. Rallying around a candidate that very few really wants and believes able to carry the election simply because of the impossibilty to collect support around a alternative, seems like a recipe for disaster. However, the Democrats have their own potential bombs in their luggage, though there is till all reason to believe that they can be defused. 

[snyprrr]

   
    Got it, the earth is round, the earth is flat, opinions differ, that's all, and as the phenomenally wise Thos. Friedman says, we just have to stop all this partisan bickering.

If one's a Vampire

And the other's a Werewolf....

HEEEY!!

YOU'RE STILL THE FOOD FOR BOTH!!!!!!



TWO WINGS---IT'S THE SAME BIRD!!!



AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snyprrr]

HE WHO COUNTS THE VOTES WINS


Diebold Electronic Voting Machines = Israeliiiiiiiiiiiii



drrrrr...........

[Karl Henning]

http://www.youtube.com/v/3txJzdRDJRA

[drogulus]

     

The thread title could turn out more true than probably envisaged, particularly on the GOP side.

     I had the idea (some months ago ) that the GOP had indulged its nihilistic tendencies to the point that, as notorious shithead Thomas More might have warned, the devil would turn on them, the party being flat and all. So, it was envisaged.