Independence for Scotland?

[vandermolen]

OK, so what's your verdict this time round?
Personally I have more understanding of Nicola Sturgeon's position after the overwhelmingly pro Remain (in the EU) vote in Scotland, although I don't want to see the break up of the UK. I thought that Gordon Brown's 'Third way' made sense, whereby Scotland would be given more autonomy and economic support whilst remaining in a type of federal United Kingdom.
I'm not Scottish by the way.

[Spineur]

No matter what, Scotland is a wonderful place to visit (especially in the summer) and I will continue to do so.

More generally, there seems to be an obsession about changes that do not involve novel ideas, but changes that are undoing of previous accomplishments.  I remember Cambridge University president saying that the the greatest achievement of his university was to have made no changes since 1262. 

[Gurn Blanston]

OK, so what's your verdict this time round?
Personally I have more understanding of Nicola Sturgeon's position after the overwhelmingly pro Remain (in the EU) vote in Scotland, although I don't want to see the break up of the UK. I thought that Gordon Brown's 'Third way' made sense, whereby Scotland would be given more autonomy and economic support whilst remaining in a type of federal United Kingdom.
I'm not Scottish by the way.

So as an American, my opinion is just that. But I actually do pay attention, since Scotland is one of those rare places of which I am inordinately fond (and have ancestors in). Last time, I was a 'Stay-er', but things have changed now. Since England seem to have chosen to go it alone, no reason Scotland need to go over the edge like a f****ng lemming right behind. I would be a 'Leave-er' this time. 

[kishnevi]

Independent Scotland would be far more complicated than Brexit, psychologically and logistically as well as legally.
Leaving the EU merely requires undoing a couple of decades of recent history.

Breaking up the UK would require undoing four centuries of history.

Consider this:

The current monarch is descended on her father"s side from a variety of German princes, and one needs to go back to James VI of Scotland to find a Briton in the family tree, and to his grandmother to find an actual English(wo)man.  Her mother was half Scot, half English. IOW, three generations are needed to link the Queen of England to an English ancestor.

The heir to the throne will push that back one generation more, since his father is British raised but not of British blood.

It will only be when Prince William (presumably) and/or his children ascend the throne that the monarch of England will have ancestry in which England predominates over Scotland.

[Ken B]

I was a leaver before and am a leaver now. Leaving would have been and would still be a catastrophe for Scotland, but it would be a good thing for England. The self-evident petulance we see on display now is proof enough I think.

I have though been remiss in asking about our Brit members. You are safe I hope, now that the island has, post-Brexit, sunk? 

[Hollywood]

Kings Duncan I, Malcolm I-III and Queen Matilda are just some of my royal scottish ancestors and I'm curious to know what they think about what Scotland is considering here. Will Scotland be brave and decide to go it alone or will she not want to break up the UK? Obviously this is nothing new for Scotland, but only time will tell... 

[vandermolen]

Many thanks for the thoughtful comments. The debate on independence was halted today as a result of the terrorist attack in Westminster.

[Scion7]

I suggest a William III sort of solution . . .

[Turner]

Scotland in the EU will meet a lot of support from within the organization, probably also in spite of any financial difficulties, since it will mean a symbolic, positive turn of events for an EU that is under a large pressure these days.

Also, it will likely mean a strengthening of Northern Europe countries within the EU.

I don´t know the details of Scottish economy, some say that it cannot really uphold itself, but future economy will be less dependent on the large scale industries. There´s probably still some potential for green development & ditto agricultural products, tourism, internet work etc., up there. 

[ComposerOfAvantGarde]

Well if Scotland decides they want independence—whilst keeping a sustainable economy—then I hope they should be able to become independent if they so wish.

[amw]

The Graun recently pointed out that if Scotland becomes independent before Brexit, its EU membership will probably be blocked by Spain. Spain has some issues with separatist movements (Catalonia, mostly) and would want to make sure the Catalans don't decide to hold an independence referendum of their own by demonstrating that independence means losing the benefits of EU membership. On the other hand, if Scotland delays its referendum until the UK is no longer an EU member it will have an easier path towards accession. Which I guess makes sense but I don't see why Spain won't block them anyway.

[vandermolen]

The Graun recently pointed out that if Scotland becomes independent before Brexit, its EU membership will probably be blocked by Spain. Spain has some issues with separatist movements (Catalonia, mostly) and would want to make sure the Catalans don't decide to hold an independence referendum of their own by demonstrating that independence means losing the benefits of EU membership. On the other hand, if Scotland delays its referendum until the UK is no longer an EU member it will have an easier path towards accession. Which I guess makes sense but I don't see why Spain won't block them anyway.

Yes, I've heard that too.

[ritter]

The Graun recently pointed out that if Scotland becomes independent before Brexit, its EU membership will probably be blocked by Spain. Spain has some issues with separatist movements (Catalonia, mostly) and would want to make sure the Catalans don't decide to hold an independence referendum of their own by demonstrating that independence means losing the benefits of EU membership. On the other hand, if Scotland delays its referendum until the UK is no longer an EU member it will have an easier path towards accession. Which I guess makes sense but I don't see why Spain won't block them anyway.

Spain's position on this issue, as far as I see it, is slightly schizophrenic (for lack of a better word). We tend to be very pro-European as a whole, and deep down wouldn't mind a part of the UK (or "ex-UK" after this hypothetical referendum) remianing within the EU post-Brexit. But, Spain will most likley never recognise a "secessionist" European region's (or country's) right to accede to (or remain within) the EU, so as not to encourage our own secessionist regions (Catalonia).

The general opinion these days, though, is that the independence movement in Catalonia is disintegrating (very noisily, and with what the French would call "une fuite en avant"). If this secessionist problem loses thrust and fades into the background (a rather likely scenario), then Spain might (only just) be somewhat more flexible concerning an independent Scotland eventually joining the EU.

[ahinton]

Spain's position on this issue, as far as I see it, is slightly schizophrenic (for lack of a better word). We tend to be very pro-European as a whole, and deep down wouldn't mind a part of the UK (or "ex-UK" after this hypothetical referendum) remianing within the EU post-Brexit. But, Spain will most likley never recognise a "secessionist" European region's (or country's) right to accede to (or remain within) the EU, so as not to encourage our own secessionist regions (Catalonia).

The general opinion these days, though, is that the independence movement in Catalonia is disintegrating (very noisily, and with what the French would call "une fuite en avant"). If this secessionist problem loses thrust and fades into the background (a rather likely scenario), then Spain might (only just) be somewhat more flexible concerning an independent Scotland eventually joining the EU.

What is so inconsistent here is that, as it requires just one EU member state to do what you're suggesting that Spain might do in order to ensure that an independent Scotland's application for membership of EU be vetoed, why did it not require just one EU member state to veto Brexit? (especially since all 27 other EU members states rather than just one appear to be against it)?

[Ghost Sonata]

No matter what, Scotland is a wonderful place to visit (especially in the summer) and I will continue to do so.

More generally, there seems to be an obsession about changes that do not involve novel ideas, but changes that are undoing of previous accomplishments.  I remember Cambridge University president saying that the the greatest achievement of his university was to have made no changes since 1262. 

My last trip to Berlin, I met a Turk (airport baggage handler), friendly chap with whom I exchanged emails and sadly lost touch of - his wife was very sick and the worst was feared.  Sent him some books about Scotland to cheer him and never heard from him again.  Anyway, the dude LOVED Scotland more than life itself.  Owned a kilt even and told me he lived for the next time he could go.  I thought it so interesting, a Turk in Scotland...obsessed therewith and cherishing every moment. Told me he kissed the ground on arriving and leaving.  Really, shouldn't he made a Scot?  And I a jelly donut?

[Florestan]

why did it not require just one EU member state to veto Brexit?

Very simple and logical: because leaving an organization is the exclusive right of those leaving it, while becoming member of an organization requires the approval of those who are already members.

[Todd]

As an American, my primary concern is with military security.  US air bases in the UK are all in England, so that's fine.  The big issue from such a viewpoint would be how England and Scotland would work out Royal Navy base access, which does have implications for US security.  I'm sure some pot sweetener could be added to make sure naval operations continue on smoothly as that would be in both nations' interest.  If this can be sorted out, I'm indifferent.

While it wouldn't concern me, I am interested in seeing how an independent Scotland would handle the issues of currency and decreased transfer payments from the central government of the UK.  Those are two rather major issues.

[Ghost Sonata]

As for independence - personally I am wary of such things.  We are at a point in world history where we need greater community NOT the fracturing we are seeing all over the place.  And this goes for at home as well as abroad.  While the Tower of Babble is not a necessary result...yahooo, here we R&)@FH3O+&!  Remember, Trump applauded Brexit, that means logically it must have been a bad thing.   

[Ghost Sonata]

Check out this interesting report on the economic effects of populism.  I've not finished reading it yet myself, but believe it of likely and timely interest to folks here: https://www.bridgewater.com/resources/bwam032217.pdf

[Crudblud]

I'm all for the Scottish people doing what they want, however, Sturgeon is a politician, and politicians often find it more profitable to make aspirational noise than to actually get what they say they want. For example, Boris Johnson, as soon as the EU referendum results were in, disappeared, then made it clear that he would not be standing in the leadership contest to replace David Cameron — he wanted to be a comfort to defeated leave voters, the "I'm on your side" PM, perhaps in the next general election, not the "now I have to sort this all out" PM. Cameron himself promised immediate triggering of Article 50 should the referendum result in favour of leaving the EU, but his first act was to resign. Donald Trump promised to drain the swamp, by most people's count he just added more and bigger 'gators with sharper teeth. Even the EU's top people, those stalwart defenders of peace and love who are such wonderful paragons of virtue that they threatened us with all sorts of retribution following the referendum, have changed their tune pretty quickly, mainly because the underlying rhythm was that of them twiddling their thumbs, the harmonies voices of journalists looking for juicy sound bites. Politicians do politics: 10% perspiration, 90% versification.

I don't trust Theresa May or David Davis or the cohort of specialists drafted to tackle the negotiations with the EU, and I don't think we'll be in the greatest of positions when we finally step out the door in 2019 (and if we are, it'll be down to the confluence of many, many things not under our control), but there is the underlying sense that stubborn, stiff upper-lipped Britain will prevail no matter what you throw at it, and we do like a challenge. I think Scotland is better off waiting to see what happens before running full pelt off that cliff everyone keeps telling us is right under our feet, and even then I wouldn't trust Sturgeon as far as I could throw her.