Brexit

[Pat B]

So, Johnson has a plan B to prevent having to ask for a delay: signing off on the deal May negotiated but with an Northern Ireland-only backstop, as originally proposed by the EU.

Even the DUP seems now to be wavering, realising that if they stand in the way of a deal they will commit electoral suicide because of the dire consequences of a no deal Brexit for NI...

Fascinating. I mean, it makes sense to do customs checks at places that are already configured for customs checks, but the implications for NI...

How are the Brexiters in European Parliament behaving?

[Mandryka]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/23/election-britain-brexit-climate-austerity-2020s

The truth is that Brexit was never a unilateralist project but an Atlanticist one. For the Brexiters now in the cabinet, the project was never about splendid isolation but rather diverging from the European social and economic model, and embracing the American way of life. That means a sink-or-swim society, with much lower levels of social protection. Its moral principles are spartan: the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

[Jo498]

That principle was actually not Spartan, but Athens vs. Melos (who wanted to remain neutral in the war between Athens and Sparta) as a classicist like Johnson certainly would know. And the UK was going in that direction since almost 40 years ago when Thatcher came into power. So it could be one factor but hardly the main one, I think.

[Mandryka]

That principle was actually not Spartan, but Athens vs. Melos (who wanted to remain neutral in the war between Athens and Sparta) as a classicist like Johnson certainly would know. And the UK was going in that direction since almost 40 years ago when Thatcher came into power. So it could be one factor but hardly the main one, I think.

I believe that the British population have been prepared for this since Thatcher, through the process of goal oriented, results oriented, target driven training they get in schools from the age of 5.

[André]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/23/election-britain-brexit-climate-austerity-2020s

An excellent article. I was most struck by this:

It is often said that the UK has an « unwritten constitution », but that diverts us from its true character: our constitution belongs to the ruling class, not to the people. It is a set of rules and conventions for how the elite will conduct themselves as they govern the masses. 

Absent a profound shake-up of that unwritten arrangement, troubles will only increase and the divide grow.

[Que]

Brexit: EU leaders believe new extension is 'likely' (BBC)

"Always keen to kick the can down the road when agreement can't yet be reached, EU diplomats muse that, with his options dwindling, Boris Johnson could choose to make a big stand at the October summit, ostentatiously refusing to ask for an extension when he meets with EU leaders (to score points with hard-line Brexiteers at home) and then resign. This would allow him to keep his hands clean of any extension, while a caretaker government requests one.

EU hopefuls cite this hypothetical scenario as a reason not to give up. A three-month extension, they say, could allow time to agree a compromise Brexit deal with the UK by the end of the year."

A resignation by Johnson after the EU summit, is indeed the most likely scenario IMO.

BTW there is talk of a longer extension than the 3 months thd UK opposition had in mind, till mid 2020.
This would be a smart move, considering the volatility of UK politics.

Q

[vandermolen]

An insult to the primates I think:

[JBS]

This one seems a bit more appropriate

[André]

An old classic...

[Que]

At this moment, I'm convinced that the fight over Brexit will take place during the upcoming general elections - somewhere late November or December.

If the Tories win a majority, the exit from the EU will be settled. If not, a referendum might be next.

Q

[vandermolen]

An old classic...

Indeed!

[Mandryka]

This was posted on another forum, I hope no one will mind if I put it here, I thought it was interesting and I'm curious about what people who have a feeling for the EU (e.g. Que) think about it.

I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created."

Romano Prodi

It looks like their moment is imminent. The happy hubristic theologians at the EC, obsessed only with their systematic destruction of sovereign Brexit, or any brexit at all, are blissfully oblivious of the storm clouds that are now rapidly gathering over the world economy. Yesterday the Dow fell by 500 points, and equities fell sharply in all the world markets. US PMI figures have come in at 47.9%, and in Sweden, which is considered to be a bellweather for the EU economies, export PMI fell even further to the mid-forties. German industry is in recession because punters in China and the anglosphere have stopped buying. Italy's debt/GDP ratio hit 135%. The ECB's ammunition lockers are empty, and the institution's presidency is about to be taken by an unqualified fraudster with a string of past failures to her name. The EU's own forecasters have stated in recent days that 'the global threat to the German economy has become 'acute', and that a disorderly Brexit would have grave consequences' for the Eurozone.

This thing is going to make brexit look like a storm in the proverbial teacup, and the gauleiters at the EC are all looking the other way. The question isn't going to be whether the EU is going to succeed in using the chaos to create their longed-for fiscal/political union, it is going to be existential.

[Que]

This was posted on another forum, I hope no one will mind if I put it here, I thought it was interesting and I'm curious about what people who have a feeling for the EU (e.g. Que) think about it.

I have little doubt that we are heading towards to a global economic and geopolitical crisis in which the EU, and the Western world in general, will have to fight for its existence. And yes,  if the EU is going to survive that crisis, it will trigger further integration and enhancement of its powers.... like every crisis before it.

But Brexit has very little to do with it, other than being the byproduct of the anxiety and existential fear that is preceding the global crisis. The UK is jumping out of the lifeboat, thinking it can swim better than anyone else. Good luck with that.... 

Q

[ritter]

Well, the language used by the author of those two paragraphs ("happy hubristic theologians", "gauleiters at the EC") clearly lets us know "of which foot he (or she) limps" as we say in Spain, and almost in itself disqualifies the comments made. But still, I see no arguments in that post to indicate that Europe is less prepared to face any  economic challenges with the support of EU (the EC doesn't exist anymore) than without it. Actually, with the benefit of hindsight, the EU weathered the storms of the early years of the current decade rather successfully, and the hardships endured  by inhabitants of the countries hit the strongest (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) are mostly a thing of the past (and we'll never known how things would have turned out if the EU hadn't been there).

[Mandryka]

But Brexit has very little to do with it, other than being the byproduct of the anxiety and existential fear that is preceding the global crisis. The UK is jumping out of the lifeboat, thinking it can swim better than anyone else. Good luck with that.... 

Q

"Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
Britons never never never will be slaves."

[Que]

"Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
Britons never never never will be slaves."

Those words ring hollow indeed...

Not only in present circumstances, but also in light of the not so distant past - in which the British Empire ruled a quarter of the world, with over 400 million people living in subjugation by the British.

But despite the claims by various British politicians, the European Union is not an occupying power.
The UK is free to leave. And if you would ask politicians in the EU-27, rather sooner than later....
Ordinary people I have found more forgiving, probably because many of them also fell at some time or another for the conspiracy theories against the EU and the luring slogan "we are better off, fending for ourselves".

But the lessons from Nazi and Soviet occupation are probably strong enough to resist temptation. There is a reason why Switzerland never joined the EU and why the UK wants out.

Q

[Florestan]

But the lessons from Nazi and Soviet occupation are probably strong enough to resist temptation. There is a reason why Switzerland never joined the EU and why the UK wants out.

I don't get it. Could you please clarify?

[Que]

I don't get it. Could you please clarify?

Sure, that's not that hard.... The terrible experiences of WW II and its aftermath led to the founding of the EU and its expansion.

Certain nations survived the ordeal of WW II with the illusion intact that they don't really need anyone else and can fend for themselves. This is a major factor in their attitude towards the European Union and European integration.
If Hitler had occupied Switzerland, it would have been a member of the EU long, long time ago...

Q

[Iota]

But Brexit has very little to do with it, other than being the byproduct of the anxiety and existential fear that is preceding the global crisis. The UK is jumping out of the lifeboat, thinking it can swim better than anyone else. Good luck with that.... 

Quite. Though a number of Brexiteers don't seem to mind drowning too much, as long as they drown having left the EU.

The ever repugnant Johnson continues to surf on a global tide of inward-lookingness, feeling no doubt that it is so strong that he just has to keep churning out his faux-Churchillian crap and he'll eventually achieve his aims. And in this I have to depressingly concur with him. Reason long ago ceased to play any major role in this debate, and the national process of removing one's nose to spite one's face seems to continue unstoppably, despite the bumps in the road, cheered to the rafters by the Brexiteers.

[Florestan]

Sure, that's not that hard.... The terrible experiences of WW II and its aftermath led to the founding of the EU and its expansion.

Certain nations survived the ordeal of WW II with the illusion intact that they don't really need anyone else and can fend for themselves. This is a major factor in their attitude towards the European Union and European integration.
If Hitler had occupied Switzerland, it would have been a member of the EU long, long time ago...

Q

Got it now, thanks for the explanation.