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Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

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Irons

Quote from: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 06:26:45 AM
Totally agree with you.
Here he is partying recently:


He is wearing jeans so one of us now.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Irons

#1221
Quote from: Irons on December 17, 2019, 07:28:23 AM
He is wearing jeans so one of us now.

Does a photo exist where Johnson is not wearing a crumpled suit, white far from pristine shirt and skew whiff tie?

Edit: Found one!

You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Papy Oli

#1222
Quote from: Irons on December 17, 2019, 07:34:01 AM
Does a photo exist where Johnson is not wearing a crumpled suit, white far from pristine shirt and skew whiff tie?

Edit: Found one!



"....so err... you are ...humph... telling me that... err... you scientists have... err ... invented ... hmmm ...  thinga-me-bob... err... put on the err.... doo-dah.... that will stop me hmm... having all those illegitimate oinks... i mean... grumph.... children... oh i say... hummm...spiffing.... ??? "
Olivier

steve ridgway

Quote from: vandermolen on December 17, 2019, 01:31:09 AM
True or possibly David Cameron, in a very posh designer shed.

He bought this to write his memoirs in, estimated to go for around £25k.


vandermolen

#1224
Quote from: 2dogs on December 17, 2019, 10:44:51 AM
He bought this to write his memoirs in, estimated to go for around £25k.
I could use one for storing my CDs.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Irons

Quote from: Papy Oli on December 17, 2019, 08:05:19 AM
"....so err... you are ...humph... telling me that... err... you scientists have... err ... invented ... hmmm ...  thinga-me-bob... err... put on the err.... doo-dah.... that will stop me hmm... having all those illegitimate oinks... i mean... grumph.... children... oh i say... hummm...spiffing.... ??? "

Or he could be saying "what happens when I touch these two wires together?" the scientists reply "not a lot, Mr Johnson. Go ahead!".
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

vandermolen

Quote from: Irons on December 17, 2019, 11:52:18 PM
Or he could be saying "what happens when I touch these two wires together?" the scientists reply "not a lot, Mr Johnson. Go ahead!".
Yes, great idea!
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Que

#1227
The game is on!

Brexit: MPs pass withdrawal agreement bill by 124 majority



Note that in the bill any extension of the transition period has been ruled out: it determines that the transition period will end on the 31st of December 2020, at the stroke of midnight.

Now, something has not changed since the referendum was held, article 50 was invoked and two withdrawal agreements were negotiated by Theresa May and Boris Johnson respectively: nobody knows Brexit is going to look like and what the future relationship with the EU will be...  ::)

The answer is simple: with the new negation powers the bill gives him, BoJo will decide what Brexit will look like.

Ruling out any extension of the transition period will however not only undermine the UK's negotiation position, it will also limit the possible options.
Given the strict timelimit, I think it is either going to be an established "of the shelf" option resulting in a soft Brexit, or a no deal situation. The free trade agreement with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, so a similar tailormade treaty is not an option.

It seems that the EU will aim at a piecemeal approach, by negotiating separate deals for the most urgent matters (for the EU),  like security cooperation, fisheries and citizens' rights, and extending the transition phase for the rest. This could be done by new agreements, avoiding the scope of the UK exit bill. Bureaucrats in Brussels get a bad wrap around here, but they are actually pretty clever...

Despite BoJo's elections slogan, Brexit will not be "done" end of January but will actually continue for many years to come....

Q

Que

In relation to our own recent discussions:

Will Brexit spell the end of English as an official EU language?

Conclusion: due to history (colonialism on a global scale) English had transcended its origins as a language of the English and has become a global - and European - lingua franca, just as French and Latin before it.

Q

Irons

Quote from: Que on December 21, 2019, 01:17:43 AM
The game is on!

Brexit: MPs pass withdrawal agreement bill by 124 majority



Note that in the bill any extension of the transition period has been ruled out: it determines that the transition period will end on the 31st of December 2020, at the stroke of midnight.

Now, something has not changed since the referendum was held, article 50 was invoked and two withdrawal agreements were negotiated by Theresa May and Boris Johnson respectively: nobody knows Brexit is going to look like and what the future relationship with the EU will be...  ::)

The answer is simple: with the new negation powers the bill gives him, BoJo will decide what Brexit will look like.

Ruling out any extension of the transition period will however not only undermine the UK's negotiation position, it will also limit the possible options.
Given the strict timelimit, I think it is either going to be an established "of the shelf" option resulting in a soft Brexit, or a no deal situation. The free trade agreement with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, so a similar tailormade treaty is not an option.

It seems that the EU will aim at a piecemeal approach, by negotiating separate deals for the most urgent matters (for the EU),  like security cooperation, fisheries and citizens' rights, and extending the transition phase for the rest. This could be done by new agreements, avoiding the scope of the UK exit bill. Bureaucrats in Brussels get a bad wrap around here, but they are actually pretty clever...

Despite BoJo's elections slogan, Brexit will not be "done" end of January but will actually continue for many years to come....

Q

The game is on. More like gunfight at OK Corral - who blinks first loses. I have no idea of the outcome but I will raise one point in your post. The negotiations of a trade deal between Canada and the EU and that of the UK are quite different and cannot be compared for the simple reason that the UK has been a member of the EU since 1973 so laws and regulations are aligned between the two. The "level playing field" is already in place. Canada, on the other hand is starting from scratch. 
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Que

Quote from: Irons on December 30, 2019, 07:40:46 AM
The game is on. More like gunfight at OK Corral - who blinks first loses. I have no idea of the outcome but I will raise one point in your post. The negotiations of a trade deal between Canada and the EU and that of the UK are quite different and cannot be compared for the simple reason that the UK has been a member of the EU since 1973 so laws and regulations are aligned between the two. The "level playing field" is already in place. Canada, on the other hand is starting from scratch.

I fully agree with your point that the level playing field, or regulatory alignment, is already in place.
This would be very helpful in all scenarios in which the UK want to stay closely aligned with the EU. In those cases the UK is already set to go and any deal to such effect -provided it is an "off shelve" set up - could be done relatively quickly.
Still an option, I wouldn't rule out that BoJo changes his mind.

However, difficulties arise when the UK does not want to commit to a close alignment. This would be the case in a Canada scenario. In that case a set a economic mutual "level playing field" is not guaranteed, which will set off difficult and lengthy "quid pro quo" negotiations between the UK and the EU.

Q

steve ridgway

Quote from: Que on December 29, 2019, 11:54:39 PM
In relation to our own recent discussions:

Will Brexit spell the end of English as an official EU language?

Conclusion: due to history (colonialism on a global scale) English had transcended its origins as a language of the English and has become a global - and European - lingua franca, just as French and Latin before it.

Q

Saying English has become a French Language sounds so much more impressive if you say it in Latin ::).


Irons

Quote from: Que on December 30, 2019, 07:59:14 AM
I fully agree with your point that the level playing field, or regulatory alignment, is already in place.
This would be very helpful in all scenarios in which the UK want to stay closely aligned with the EU. In those cases the UK is already set to go and any deal to such effect -provided it is an "off shelve" set up - could be done relatively quickly.
Still an option, I wouldn't rule out that BoJo changes his mind.

However, difficulties arise when the UK does not want to commit to a close alignment. This would be the case in a Canada scenario. In that case a set a economic mutual "level playing field" is not guaranteed, which will set off difficult and lengthy "quid pro quo" negotiations between the UK and the EU.

Q

Yes, and I am not saying for a moment that negotiations are going to be easy or indeed successful. There is a strong held view in the British camp that negotiations over anything with the EU are only concluded at the 11th hour. It makes little difference if one month, one year or seven years the EU always stretch the timeframe to conclude discussions at the last minute.

I think sabre-rattling is unhelpful at this juncture and surprised to read comments made by Phil Hogan, the trade chief for the EU made yesterday which are quite provocative. Boris seems to get on well with the other leaders in Europe, there is warmth shown by both sides. Not so from the EU itself.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Que

#1233
I agree that Hogan's intervention isn't helpful. For some reason he thought that putting pressure on Johnson was necessary.

Yet, I honestly think a year is not nearly enough to negotiate a tailored free trade agreement, which necessitates going trough literally every aspect of economic bilateral relations. It's not a political problem, but a practical limitation.

So, either the negotiations are going to be extended, or BoJo aims for a no deal scenario (which I find unlikely),  or an "off the shelf" close(r) relationship with the EU is chosen. The last option makes the most sense economically and is best for his political survival, though it would create a rift with hard Brexiteers.

The different options haven't changed since the days of Theresa May, just the parliamentary arithmetics.

I'll be interested in events unfolding - 1st of July is the deadline for the decision on an extension.

Q

Que

The withdrawal agreement has been signed:





Q

Irons

Quote from: Que on January 24, 2020, 11:40:08 AM
The withdrawal agreement has been signed:





Q

No bong from Big Ben though. :(

Essay in today's Daily Mail - yes I know - by Alexander Von Schoenburg, editor-at-large (?) at Bild that Germans are jealous of Brexit.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Que

#1236
The 1st week after Britain left the EU.. ..


Remarkably, Boris Johnson has done the same thing as his predecessor: he has given a big speech before the negotiations even started, in which he has painted himself some "red lines":

He is aiming for a Canadian-style free trade deal or an "Australian deal", which is actually NO deal at all but trading on WTO terms.

Brexit: Boris Johnson says 'no need' for UK to follow EU rules on trade

Pound falls as Boris Johnson takes tough line on EU trade deal

Boris Johnson warns Brussels he would rather walk away without a trade deal than make Britain follow EU rules

Economists and the business community will be alarmed, since the economic ties between the UK and the EU are not even remotely similar to those between the EU and Canada or Australia. Economic relations with the EU are much more significant in size for the UK economy than for Canada (export 45% vs 8%, import 53% vs 10,5%). Also the ties, as is the UK economy, are dominated by services instead of goods. A free flow of services requires a much closer and more complex trading relationship.

It seems Boris doesn't want to follow any EU rules.... just for the sake of it.

Q

Que

#1237
Perhaps Boris should read up on the issue in the Wall Street Journal...

No, Brexit Won't Free the U.K. From EU Regulations

British industries from aerospace to telecommunications still need to follow Brussels's rules to retain access to vital European markets

The U.K. is finally on its way toward full independence from Brussels—or so British leaders promise. On Jan. 31, the U.K. formally left the European Union with the goal of reinstating its "regulatory sovereignty" and unshackling the country from the EU's endless bureaucracy. "There will not be alignment" on regulations with the EU after Brexit, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid recently declared. "We will not be a rule taker." But that's easier said than done. In reality, no political choice available to the U.K. would liberate it from the EU's regulatory reach. Britain's push for regulatory freedom is simply not how global markets work in the 21st century.

EU consumers currently buy almost half of what the U.K. exports, and the EU is a top export destination for many British industries—including aerospace, automobiles, chemicals, financial services, food manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and telecommunications. So all of these industries will need to remain closely aligned with EU regulations to preserve their access to the European market, regardless of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's promises to the contrary.

Global firms often voluntarily standardize their operations around EU regulations.
The EU doesn't even need the British government to commit to a regulatory alignment as part of any future trade deal between Brussels and London. All the EU needs is to demand that companies doing business in the union abide by its rules. Global companies often voluntarily standardize their operations around the most stringent regulatory standard out there—frequently the EU standard—since complying with that standard will typically ensure access to all markets. Economies of scale and other benefits of uniform production make it unlikely that these firms would set up two production lines, one for the EU and another for the rest of the world.

Even multinationals and U.S. companies that benefit from a much larger and less regulated home market often adjust their global business practices to EU rules. Facebook, Google and Microsoft have global privacy policies written with Brussels in mind. Twitter and YouTube have echoed the EU's definition of hate speech globally, pledging to delete material on their platforms that the EU would deem unacceptable even when such speech might be protected by the U.S. First Amendment. Revlon Inc.declared back in 2005 that all of its products complied with EU regulations. And CHS Inc., the giant U.S. farm cooperative, has refused to sell seeds or buy grain from U.S. farmers if they contain traits of genetically modified organisms banned in the EU. The largest U.K.-based firms— Barclays PLC,GlaxoSmithKline, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, UnileverPLC and Vodafone Group PLC—will have little choice but to follow suit.

Call it the Brussels effect. British companies understand that this dynamic allows the EU to wield a passive yet highly penetrating form of power to unilaterally transform global markets and shape corporate behavior. The Confederation of British Industry, which says that it speaks for 190,000 businesses in the U.K., has called for regulatory alignment, arguing that it would make many British companies more competitive. This includes the U.K.'s important aerospace industry, which had a 47% export share to the EU in 2016. Tony Wood, the president of that industry's trade body, says that regulatory alignment with the EU is "in our national interest."

Mr. Johnson's government will also wind up continuing to emulate many of the EU rules it most despised, including those on data privacy. Pro-Brexit voices have long criticized the EU's data-protection rules for impeding innovation and undermining British firms' competitiveness. But the EU's General Data Protection Regulation will set the terms moving forward, or data flows between the U.K. and the EU will halt. Three-quarters of the U.K.'s data flows are with EU countries, giving the British government no option but to pursue regulatory alignment to meet the EU's standards. U.K. Information Commissioner Elizabeth Denham has admitted as much, saying that "Brexit should not mean Brexit when it comes to standards of data protection." The financial-services industry is similarly dependent on Brussels, with nearly half of the U.K.'s financial-service exports going to the EU.

Is there no way for Mr. Johnson's government to avoid EU regulations and make good on its promises? Making new trade deals across the world could help to mitigate the Brussels effect. If U.K. companies can find enough export opportunities elsewhere to replace EU business, their dependence on access to the EU market will decline.

But this will take time, and any new British trade deals won't easily replace the importance of the EU as a destination of U.K. exports. Geographic proximity and low transportation costs still dictate much of the flow of global trade.

More than half of British car exports, for example, are destined for the EU and thus must continue to meet Brussels's standards even in a post-Brexit world. Moreover, the U.K. automobile industry has repeatedly stressed the high costs of producing different varieties for different markets. Mike Hawes, the chief executive of the U.K. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, warns that having to meet divergent regulations would "add billions" to the industry's manufacturing costs. The U.K.'s domestic market for cars is six times smaller than the EU automotive market, and much of the remaining exports are destined for countries such as South Korea, which have trade deals with the EU that mirror Brussels's regulatory requirements. All of this leaves U.K. manufacturers with strong incentives to follow EU regulations across the board.

Ironically, Brexit will probably strengthen many EU regulations.
Ironically, Brexit will probably strengthen many EU regulations, leaving U.K. companies to face an even more heavily regulated marketplace in the coming years. London will no longer have a say over EU regulations, removing an important pro-market voice from the table where those regulations are written. This will open the door for more interventionist regulatory standards advocated by France, Germany and others. These EU heavyweights—now even more dominant—are already pushing to create European champions that can withstand international competition.

With Brexit, the U.K. has ceded its role as a vital rule-maker within the EU and become a voiceless rule-taker in an even more tightly regulated Europe. No regulatory freedom awaits the U.K. in the age of Brexit. Instead, the U.K. government is about to learn the hard way that Brexit is easier to deliver as a slogan than as a viable policy.

Ms. Bradford is a professor at Columbia Law School and the author of "The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World," which will be published Feb. 20 by Oxford University Press.

Irons

#1238
Quote from: Que on February 08, 2020, 12:40:41 AM
The 1st week after Britain left the EU.. ..


Remarkably, Boris Johnson has done the same thing as his predecessor: he has given a big speech before the negotiations even started, in which he has painted himself some "red lines":

He is aiming for a Canadian-style free trade deal or an "Australian deal", which is actually NO deal at all but trading on WTO terms.

Brexit: Boris Johnson says 'no need' for UK to follow EU rules on trade

Pound falls as Boris Johnson takes tough line on EU trade deal

Boris Johnson warns Brussels he would rather walk away without a trade deal than make Britain follow EU rules

Economists and the business community will be alarmed, since the economic ties between the UK and the EU are not even remotely similar to those between the EU and Canada or Australia. Economic relations with the EU are much more significant in size for the UK economy than for Canada (export 45% vs 8%, import 53% vs 10,5%). Also the ties, as is the UK economy, are dominated by services instead of goods. A free flow of services requires a much closer and more complex trading relationship.

It seems Boris doesn't want to follow any EU rules.... just for the sake of it.

Q

Trump "apoplectic" at UK signing a deal with Huawei for 5G. So we are off to hell in a handcart!

Not factually correct that the £pound falls. In fact worth up to 22% more thanks to "Brexit bounce".

Edit: Sterling is 4% stronger then the euro compared to a year ago.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Que

#1239
Quote from: Irons on February 08, 2020, 09:31:42 AM
Trump "apoplectic" at UK signing a deal with Huawei for 5G. So we are off to hell in a handcart!

Not factually correct that the £pound falls. In fact worth up to 22% more thanks to "Brexit bounce".

Edit: Sterling is 4% stronger then the euro compared to a year ago.

The pound falling or rising was not the point of linking the article. Apart from that, a comparison with a year ago doesn't tell you much.... The uncertainties and the hopes today are much the same as then. The UK has left the EU, but is still in the same economic relationship with the EU as before.

This is the more telling chart:



Keep in mind the referendum was in June 2016.
And the modest dip was caused by the uncertainty that followed (and preceeded) the referendum, not by the actual rupture of the close economic relationship with the EU. That is yet to come, or not...

Q