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Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

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Que

Quote from: Irons on February 09, 2020, 04:22:30 AM
But I was not linking to the article but to the comment - Pound falls as Boris takes a tough line on EU trade deal. The pound may fall, and indeed did so recently due to external factors and leaving the EU may hit sterling hard, who knows? That does not alter the fact that the statement is inaccurate so should be called so.

I didn't check what the pound did on last Monday right after Johnson's speech, but any clear connection seems definitely not certain and in any case shortlived!

Q

Irons

Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 04:28:57 AM
I didn't check what the pound did on last Monday right after Johnson's speech, but any clear connection seems definitely not certain and in any case shortlived!

Q

So it may. I do not disagree with much you say but lets not fall in the Trump "fake news" trap.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Que

Quote from: Irons on February 09, 2020, 04:36:01 AM
So it may. I do not disagree with much you say but lets not fall in the Trump "fake news" trap.

If it was "fake news", it's on The Guardian. Which seems a respectable news source.
I mentioned the article mainly because it is also about concerns in the business community.

I'm curious with which of my statements you don't agree with. I try to keep them as factual as possible.
Or you don't agree with my take on Brexit in general?

Q

Christo

Just a polite request in between: can you please keep that Ciara Storm with you, over there? Brexit means Brexit.  ???
... music is not only an 'entertainment', nor a mere luxury, but a necessity of the spiritual if not of the physical life, an opening of those magic casements through which we can catch a glimpse of that country where ultimate reality will be found.    RVW, 1948

Irons

Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 04:48:33 AM
If it was "fake news", it's on The Guardian. Which seems a respectable news source.
I mentioned the article mainly because it is also about concerns in the business community.

I'm curious with which of my statements you don't agree with. I try to keep them as factual as possible.
Or you don't agree with my take on Brexit in general?

Q

I do not read the Guardian. Brexit is a most complex issue. I voted remain, but fully understand the wish to leave. I do believe the EU has to take some responsibility for Brexit, although why should they make concessions to make for a positive referendum result? After all the EU didn't call it, the UK did. As I say complex. Not in my lifetime, but I think in the not too distant future it is possible that the UK will apply to re-join. Politics are in constant flux and eventually the Labour Party will get their house in order and as the Brexit referendum was close, I can foresee the prospect of applying to re-join a means of obtaining power, especially if Brexit doesn't work out well. If the EU would want the UK back is another matter entirely. 

I do not disagree with much of what you say but most of your argument is balanced from an anti-Brexit prospective. I'm more of sitting on the fence probably due to residing in the UK there is no alternative. Being a remoaner is pointless.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Que

Quote from: Irons on February 09, 2020, 06:11:38 AM
I do not read the Guardian. Brexit is a most complex issue. I voted remain, but fully understand the wish to leave. I do believe the EU has to take some responsibility for Brexit, although why should they make concessions to make for a positive referendum result? After all the EU didn't call it, the UK did. As I say complex. Not in my lifetime, but I think in the not too distant future it is possible that the UK will apply to re-join. Politics are in constant flux and eventually the Labour Party will get their house in order and as the Brexit referendum was close, I can foresee the prospect of applying to re-join a means of obtaining power, especially if Brexit doesn't work out well. If the EU would want the UK back is another matter entirely. 

I do not disagree with much of what you say but most of your argument is balanced from an anti-Brexit prospective. I'm more of sitting on the fence probably due to residing in the UK there is no alternative. Being a remoaner is pointless.

Since I'm not living in the UK and I'm not a British national, I'm per definition an outsider in the debate between Brexiteers and remainers (or I guess the later group should be rebranded 'rejoiners').
But as a fellow European and supporter of European integration, I am affected by the UK's decision to leave.

Countries and peoples make the decisions they make, and that is to be respected. In this regard the UK is truly the master of its own fate.
But IMO the decision wasn't rational in the sense that Brexit will not solve domestic problems that were not caused by EU membership and that leaving the EU will not offer the utopian economic opportunities that were promised.
The UK essentially voted for a return to the economic and political independence of a super power. But unfortunately the UK is no super power... anymore.... and it will soon hit the brick wall of that reality.
Only time will tell how that pans out....

Q

Iota

Quote from: Que on February 08, 2020, 03:23:16 AM
Perhaps Boris should read up on the issue in the Wall Street Journal...

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 08:35:33 AM
But IMO the decision wasn't rational in the sense that Brexit will not solve domestic problems that were not caused by EU membership and that leaving the EU will not offer the utopian economic opportunities that were promised.

For me that sums up the absurdity of the situation. The EU was a convenient scapegoat to vent much broader frustrations on when the Brexit vote happened, and stoked no doubt by years of mindless headlines and prepping in tabloids and broadsheets, in many people's minds the UK became David against the EU Goliath, and once that happened any chance of it being a rational debate seemed to evaporate. People are naturally tribal, and the easiest thing in the world is to point a finger and demonise. Anyway the point being that barely any of the autonomy/freedom etc people sought when voting to leave was really achievable. All they've done is knocked over a giant strawman, who was never the cause of all their woes in the first place, and scratched a primal itch that will bring only short-lived satisfaction.

All in imo of course, and I'd add that I genuinely hope I'm wrong, I hope Brexit works out, despite all the nefarious shenanigans that accompanied it.

Irons

Quote from: Que on February 09, 2020, 08:35:33 AM
Since I'm not living in the UK and I'm not a British national, I'm per definition an outsider in the debate between Brexiteers and remainers (or I guess the later group should be rebranded 'rejoiners').
But as a fellow European and supporter of European integration, I am affected by the UK's decision to leave.

Countries and peoples make the decisions they make, and that is to be respected. In this regard the UK is truly the master of its own fate.
But IMO the decision wasn't rational in the sense that Brexit will not solve domestic problems that were not caused by EU membership and that leaving the EU will not offer the utopian economic opportunities that were promised.
The UK essentially voted for a return to the economic and political independence of a super power. But unfortunately the UK is no super power... anymore.... and it will soon hit the brick wall of that reality.
Only time will tell how that pans out....

Q

There are so many factors that led to Brexit, and some have have nothing to do with The EU. I do not think economics were the driving force or lust for power. I agree our power on the world stage is diminished, this is why the majority of politicians in the UK were against - they enjoy being at the top table. The population on the other hand are not so bothered about that. The power base would further hit by Scottish independence but the general feeling is if it happens, it happens.
It is hardly mentioned but I think being a small island off the mainland Europe was a factor, eternal outsiders. Immigration is up there although that became less important with the passing of time. Most of all I think it a protest vote, people were fed up, and idiotically Cameron didn't understand that. The strangest aspect is a protest vote which resulted in an incumbent Government retaining power. :-\
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

vandermolen

Quote from: Christo on February 09, 2020, 05:15:54 AM
Just a polite request in between: can you please keep that Ciara Storm with you, over there? Brexit means Brexit.  ???
:)
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Que

(Guardian)
No 10 claims coronavirus crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020
Andrew Sparrow

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the prime minister's spokesman also significantly toughened the UK's stance on Brexit. The government has always ruled out requesting an extension to the post-Brexit transition period, and it has stuck to that position even though coronavirus has made it increasingly hard to see how the UK and the EU will be able to conclude a trade deal by the end of this year when crisis management is a full-time job and officials cannot even meet in the same room to carry out the negotiation.

But, as James Forsyth, the Spectator's political editor reports this week, there has been speculation that the EU itself could request an extension of the transition. One theory was that it would be hard for the UK to refuse.

But the UK would refuse such a request, the spokesman said this morning. He told journalists:
"We will not ask to extend the transition. And, if the EU asks, we will say no. Extending the transition would simply prolong the negotiations, prolong business uncertainty, and delay the moment of control of our borders. It would also keep us bound by EU legislation at a point when we need legislative and economic flexibility to manage the UK response to the coronavirus pandemic."

What is also interesting about this comment is that it shows No 10 is now arguing that coronavirus strengthens the case for the UK to break away from regulatory alignment with the EU. Opposing regulatory alignment could end up with the UK having to negotiate with the EU on WTO terms (what used to be called a "no-deal" Brexit), although of course the government says it wants a Canada-style trade deal.

Q


Irons

Quote from: Que on April 16, 2020, 05:26:19 AM
(Guardian)
No 10 claims coronavirus crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020
Andrew Sparrow

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the prime minister's spokesman also significantly toughened the UK's stance on Brexit. The government has always ruled out requesting an extension to the post-Brexit transition period, and it has stuck to that position even though coronavirus has made it increasingly hard to see how the UK and the EU will be able to conclude a trade deal by the end of this year when crisis management is a full-time job and officials cannot even meet in the same room to carry out the negotiation.

But, as James Forsyth, the Spectator's political editor reports this week, there has been speculation that the EU itself could request an extension of the transition. One theory was that it would be hard for the UK to refuse.

But the UK would refuse such a request, the spokesman said this morning. He told journalists:
"We will not ask to extend the transition. And, if the EU asks, we will say no. Extending the transition would simply prolong the negotiations, prolong business uncertainty, and delay the moment of control of our borders. It would also keep us bound by EU legislation at a point when we need legislative and economic flexibility to manage the UK response to the coronavirus pandemic."

What is also interesting about this comment is that it shows No 10 is now arguing that coronavirus strengthens the case for the UK to break away from regulatory alignment with the EU. Opposing regulatory alignment could end up with the UK having to negotiate with the EU on WTO terms (what used to be called a "no-deal" Brexit), although of course the government says it wants a Canada-style trade deal.

Q

I am beginning to believe that for the UK Government Brexit is not for any practical issue, including the coronavirus pandemic - I wrongly assumed that transition talks would be put on hold, being surprised and a little shocked the UK planned to carry on regardless and keep to the original timetable. Brexit defines this Government and for good or ill is driven by political dogma.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Mandryka

#1251
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/eu-turns-up-pressure-on-matt-hancock-over-covid-19-ppe-scheme


EU turns up pressure on Matt Hancock over Covid-19 PPE scheme


QuoteAfter a day of confusion in Westminster over the UK's lack of involvement in the EU's joint procurement of equipment, a spokesman for the commission appeared to bolster the claim that ministers had taken a "political decision" to opt out.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/eu-procurement-johnson-priorities-coronavirus-pandemic

What the EU procurement furore tells us about Johnson's real priorities

Quote. . .  It is a reminder that, in this government, power still rests with those who believe the overriding objective of this administration, even now, is a hard Brexit. It implies that in Johnson's government the fight against Covid-19 is, of course, massively important – but only up to a point.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Que

#1252
Quote from: Irons on April 21, 2020, 11:47:21 PM
I am beginning to believe that for the UK Government Brexit is not for any practical issue, including the coronavirus pandemic - I wrongly assumed that transition talks would be put on hold, being surprised and a little shocked the UK planned to carry on regardless and keep to the original timetable. Brexit defines this Government and for good or ill is driven by political dogma.

What I find striking is that the Brexit narrative has kept shifting towards a more and more radical option.
During the referendum the objective was to distance the UK from the EU political project, but to stay in the internal market.
Under May it was to leave the internal market, but to keep close economic ties.
Johnson took over and aimed at a Canadian-style bilateral trade deal.
Now it seems the UK government has lost interest in any negotiations on any agreement whatsoever.

So, the endgame is the severing of all economic ties with the EU except trading under the WTO-rules?
This would actually set the clock on economic ties back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Baffling, simply baffling....  ::)

Q

Irons

Quote from: Que on April 23, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
What I find striking is that the Brexit narrative has kept shifting towards a more and more radical option.
During the referendum the objective was to distance the UK from the EU political project, but to stay in the internal market.
Under May it was to leave the internal market, but to keep close economic ties.
Johnson took over and aimed at a Canadian-style bilateral trade deal.
Now it seems the UK government has lost interest in any negotiations on any agreement whatsoever.

So, the endgame is the severing of all economic ties with the EU except trading under the WTO-rules?
This would actually set the clock on economic ties back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Baffling, simply baffling....  ::)

Q

I agree with your analysis. The hard part is what drives it? Johnson and Trump seem very matey and I think I am correct in saying Trump is no admirer of the EU. Getting into bed with Trump is not something I am entirely comfortable with but I am not overly enthusiastic with the EU as an organisation either - the countries that make up the EU is a different matter. For the UK it feels like being between a rock and a hard place. Only time will tell, but of course Covid-19 has thrown a massive spanner in the works!   
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Florestan

Quote from: Que on April 23, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Except that the UK is no longer in the situation they were before 1954 and the then European Communities are no longer extant since decades. Nothing is even remotely similar to that period for both entities. The future is in the making here and now; the past, while not completely irrelevant, is no trustful guide either.

(Says a guy who's staunchly in favor of a smoothly functional EU, yet quite sceptical about it ever being achieved)
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Iota

Quote from: Que on April 23, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
What I find striking is that the Brexit narrative has kept shifting towards a more and more radical option.
During the referendum the objective was to distance the UK from the EU political project, but to stay in the internal market.
Under May it was to leave the internal market, but to keep close economic ties.
Johnson took over and aimed at a Canadian-style bilateral trade deal.
Now it seems the UK government has lost interest in any negotiations on any agreement whatsoever.

So, the endgame is the severing of all economic ties with the EU except trading under the WTO-rules?
This would actually set the clock on economic ties back to the situation before 1954, when the UK and the then European Communities entered into a mutual association agreement.

Baffling, simply baffling....  ::)

Q

I agree it is baffling. I wonder if hardcore Tory Brexiteers have used the cover and confusion of the pandemic to successfully push the government into a more radical position? A government that of course that was not short of a no-deal supporting member or two (or adviser!) well before the pandemic ever arrived.

I also wonder how I personally, a staunch Remainer, will feel about this situation whenever the dust to this unprecedented upheaval settles. Perhaps my feelings will remain the same or even strengthen. But it's conceivable, in the wake of such traumatic and profound changes, that previous certainties will no longer seem such.

I mention this as I imagine that we are all, politicians and citizens, subject to the same emotional and gravitational pulls from the chaos, which will make any predictions or assumptions about Brexit even harder than they were before I think.

Que

#1256
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2020, 07:44:09 AM
Except that the UK is no longer in the situation they were before 1954 and the then European Communities are no longer extant since decades. Nothing is even remotely similar to that period for both entities. The future is in the making here and now; the past, while not completely irrelevant, is no trustful guide either.

Absolutely, the clock cannot be turned back to the twillight of the British Empire....
But who is going to tell that to the UK government and save the UK from its own folly?  ::)


Britain running down the clock in Brexit talks, says Michel Barnier

Barnier's comments seem to confirm that the UK government has indeed no interest in genuine negotiations anymore....

Q

Irons

Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2020, 07:44:09 AM
Except that the UK is no longer in the situation they were before 1954 and the then European Communities are no longer extant since decades. Nothing is even remotely similar to that period for both entities. The future is in the making here and now; the past, while not completely irrelevant, is no trustful guide either.

(Says a guy who's staunchly in favor of a smoothly functional EU, yet quite sceptical about it ever being achieved)

In total agreement. The UK joined a "Common Market" not the political power base it has become with aspirations of a joint military project! The EU demands from the UK "a level playing field" but it is they who have moved the goal posts.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Que

#1258
Quote from: Irons on April 25, 2020, 12:44:54 AM
The EU demands from the UK "a level playing field" but it is they who have moved the goal posts.

There seems to be a misunderstanding.
The notion of "level playing field" refers exclusively to conditions for fair economic competition.
Of course fair competition means certain common standards on production, worker's conditions, state aid, etc.

It was the UK, including successive Tory governments, that invented the concept of the Internal Market and was its champion for decades. But now it is a bad idea?

Anyway, even if fhe UK has changed it mind on this financially beneficial concept that has earned the UK billions and billions of Pounds in the past. What EU is saying is that, if the UK wants to retain total and free access to the EU internal market - as its has been demanding right from the start of the negotiations - fair competition conditions ("level playing field") require that the UK sticks to a certain minimum of common standards.

This is not to the liking of Johnson & co. But that's pure "cakeism"...
The EU is not going to let UK companies roam freely on its internal market while they can undercut their competitors by cheaper & lower standards and government sweetners. It would destroy the Internal Market and is simply not going to happen.

Q

Que

Quote from: Irons on April 25, 2020, 12:44:54 AM
[...] the political power base it has become with aspirations of a joint military project!

This is an entirely different matter, but I am actually all for it...
In these times of growing geopolitical instability the transformation of the EU into a global political and military force is actually a matter of grave urgency.

Who is going to stop Putin? His buddy Trump?? A common European defence is needed ASAP....
Another threat is China's growing influence in the entire world and its agression in Asia.

Q