Brexit

[Que]

I find it interesting how the Brexit narrative has kept shifting over time.

At the time of the referendum many Brexiteers brushed away any fears of economic damage by painting an "soft" Brexit, in which the UK would remain in the EU customs union and the internal market, as the most likely outcome.
After the referendum this gradually shifted via half-in half-out scenario under Theresa May, to a "hard" Brexit scenario under Johnson. The outcome of a hard Brexit was to serve as a justification for Brexit itself. After all, was was the point of leaving if the UK would still voluntarily stick to EU rules?

Then the narrative became that severing economic ties with the EU would indeed cause economic damage, but this would be compensated by new grandiose trade opportunities in the rest of the world. None of these opportunities materialised, the UK was fortunate enough to close some international trade deals that copied the previous conditions under the EU trade deals.

Now the narrative is that the UK has regained its freedom, and that apart from a few glitches everything has basically stayed the same due to a victorious last minute deal. Nonsense, absolute nonsense. Trade barriers have been resurrected and these will result in less or less advantageous trade and therefore in economic damage - on both sides of the channel...

How Brexit is already taking its toll on the U.K. economy  (Marketwatch)

But there is also "good" news: Nissan is not leaving (but other car makers will):

Nissan staying in UK is great news after Brexit, but car industry's future is still very unclear

[Que]

The UK will over time no longer serve as supply link between Ireland and mainland Europe:

After Brexit, Ireland and France cut out the middleman - Britain

[steve ridgway]

The UK will over time no longer serve as supply link between Ireland and mainland Europe:

After Brexit, Ireland and France cut out the middleman - Britain

This will hopefully reduce the lorry traffic on our motorways to more acceptable levels. It's a couple of hundred miles drive through the busiest areas to enter Britain at one side only to leave at the other and the roads have become choked. I don't suppose foreign lorries pay anything towards the endless repairs and "upgrades".

[Papy Oli]

You make some good points Olivier and then you spoil it by James O'Brian !  . I listen to Ian Dale. Which pretty well sums it up. If we have as you say nothing, we do have vaccine unless the EU decide it is unfair.

I actually did listen to both James O'Brien and Ian Dale over months after the referendum. Even though i disagreed with Ian Dale's Brexit views, I thought he had the right constructive approach to debating it and put his points across sensibly. I found it challenging but interesting. O'Brien is more "passionate" but still thorough in his approach, particularly in debunking some empty Brexit rhetoric that hard brexiteers came up with over time. It was worth listening to both sides.

I admit that the vaccine roll-out is indeed to the credit of the UK (as well as the furlough scheme). That's how efficiently the NHS and the Army can do things when you let them do one job they are built for and fund them appropriately, instead of handing out billions to private companies & have something run by cronies that have nothing to with the type of business needed (case in point with track & trace with Serco and Dido Harding...and still call it wrongly the NHS test & trace in multiple press conferences when it is anything but...I am sure Labour wasted public money in their own way too).

The actions against the pandemic have been a hard balancing act for every country and tough decisions to be made throughout. What irks me is that Mr Johnson seems to hide behind this "world-beating" vaccine roll-out and completely forget about the shambolic or late decisions and communications in the last year. More than that, it is the fact that he has not learnt from his previous late or shambolic decisions and keeps repeating them, while still claiming to be following the science, albeit weeks later than needed. This is not "doing everything we can" by any stretch. No EU country has been perfect in their handling of covid by any means but when you have 100,000+ covid-related deaths and probably another 40K+ by the time we get to the bottom of the second wave, there is a problem or two somewhere that need a hard look at...

[Papy Oli]

This will hopefully reduce the lorry traffic on our motorways to more acceptable levels. It's a couple of hundred miles drive through the busiest areas to enter Britain at one side only to leave at the other and the roads have become choked. I don't suppose foreign lorries pay anything towards the endless repairs and "upgrades".

From 2014:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2593608/Foreign-juggernauts-pay-drive-UK-roads.html

Alternatively, maybe the governement should put some tolls on the motorways like in France...or ask for EU transport subsidies and grants... 


 

[Irons]

I actually did listen to both James O'Brien and Ian Dale over months after the referendum. Even though i disagreed with Ian Dale's Brexit views, I thought he had the right constructive approach to debating it and put his points across sensibly. I found it challenging but interesting. O'Brien is more "passionate" but still thorough in his approach, particularly in debunking some empty Brexit rhetoric that hard brexiteers came up with over time. It was worth listening to both sides.

I admit that the vaccine roll-out is indeed to the credit of the UK (as well as the furlough scheme). That's how efficiently the NHS and the Army can do things when you let them do one job they are built for and fund them appropriately, instead of handing out billions to private companies & have something run by cronies that have nothing to with the type of business needed (case in point with track & trace with Serco and Dido Harding...and still call it wrongly the NHS test & trace in multiple press conferences when it is anything but...I am sure Labour wasted public money in their own way too).

The actions against the pandemic have been a hard balancing act for every country and tough decisions to be made throughout. What irks me is that Mr Johnson seems to hide behind this "world-beating" vaccine roll-out and completely forget about the shambolic or late decisions and communications in the last year. More than that, it is the fact that he has not learnt from his previous late or shambolic decisions and keeps repeating them, while still claiming to be following the science, albeit weeks later than needed. This is not "doing everything we can" by any stretch. No EU country has been perfect in their handling of covid by any means but when you have 100,000+ covid-related deaths and probably another 40K+ by the time we get to the bottom of the second wave, there is a problem or two somewhere that need a hard look at...

Good points, well put. As for James O'Brian, although I didn't agree with his politics I listened to him most mornings as he is a good communicator. To be fair he was critical of Corbyn so there was some balance but  his constant barrage on Brexit is tiresome and I reached the stage I could not listen any more. You have to admit Olivier, O'Brien is a very smug man. Like it or or not we are out of the EU and pointless bleating on about it. For balance (and smut) I listen to the "For the Many" political podcast with Ian Dale and ex Labour Home Secretary, Jackie Smith. They manage to discuss from a left and right perspective without rancour - no mean feat.
I did not want to bring up vaccines as it is a low blow but felt I had little choice. History will judge Johnson and he knows it, I agree with much you say.
Seems to be forgotten that Johnson did not choose Bexit, the British electorate did.


PS Dyson are not leaving the UK because of Brexit in fact James Dyson is suing the EU for £200 million.   

[vandermolen]

Good points, well put. As for James O'Brian, although I didn't agree with his politics I listened to him most mornings as he is a good communicator. To be fair he was critical of Corbyn so there was some balance but  his constant barrage on Brexit is tiresome and I reached the stage I could not listen any more. You have to admit Olivier, O'Brien is a very smug man. Like it or or not we are out of the EU and pointless bleating on about it. For balance (and smut) I listen to the "For the Many" political podcast with Ian Dale and ex Labour Home Secretary, Jackie Smith. They manage to discuss from a left and right perspective without rancour - no mean feat.
I did not want to bring up vaccines as it is a low blow but felt I had little choice. History will judge Johnson and he knows it, I agree with much you say.
Seems to be forgotten that Johnson did not choose Bexit, the British electorate did.


PS Dyson are not leaving the UK because of Brexit in fact James Dyson is suing the EU for £200 million.

Fair points, although I would add that Johnson was, as far as I'm aware, responsible for that big lie on the bus about the money from the EU going to the NHS.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I find it interesting how the Brexit narrative has kept shifting over time.

At the time of the referendum many Brexiteers brushed away any fears of economic damage by painting an "soft" Brexit, in which the UK would remain in the EU customs union and the internal market, as the most likely outcome.
After the referendum this gradually shifted via half-in half-out scenario under Theresa May, to a "hard" Brexit scenario under Johnson. The outcome of a hard Brexit was to serve as a justification for Brexit itself. After all, was was the point of leaving if the UK would still voluntarily stick to EU rules?

Then the narrative became that severing economic ties with the EU would indeed cause economic damage, but this would be compensated by new grandiose trade opportunities in the rest of the world. None of these opportunities materialised, the UK was fortunate enough to close some international trade deals that copied the previous conditions under the EU trade deals.

Now the narrative is that the UK has regained its freedom, and that apart from a few glitches everything has basically stayed the same due to a victorious last minute deal. Nonsense, absolute nonsense. Trade barriers have been resurrected and these will result in less or less advantageous trade and therefore in economic damage - on both sides of the channel...

How Brexit is already taking its toll on the U.K. economy  (Marketwatch)

But there is also "good" news: Nissan is not leaving (but other car makers will):

Nissan staying in UK is great news after Brexit, but car industry's future is still very unclear

What have you heard about any EU businesses being hurt who previously sold a lot of their product(s) to the UK?

PD

[steve ridgway]

From 2014:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2593608/Foreign-juggernauts-pay-drive-UK-roads.html

Thanks for the link, I never knew that. I don't suppose we'll get the hard shoulder on the M62 back though, it's a bit slower for me now to avoid it in favour of a safer route when I have to go that way.

[Papy Oli]

Good points, well put. As for James O'Brian, although I didn't agree with his politics I listened to him most mornings as he is a good communicator. To be fair he was critical of Corbyn so there was some balance but  his constant barrage on Brexit is tiresome and I reached the stage I could not listen any more. You have to admit Olivier, O'Brien is a very smug man. Like it or or not we are out of the EU and pointless bleating on about it. For balance (and smut) I listen to the "For the Many" political podcast with Ian Dale and ex Labour Home Secretary, Jackie Smith. They manage to discuss from a left and right perspective without rancour - no mean feat.
I did not want to bring up vaccines as it is a low blow but felt I had little choice. History will judge Johnson and he knows it, I agree with much you say.
Seems to be forgotten that Johnson did not choose Bexit, the British electorate did.


PS Dyson are not leaving the UK because of Brexit in fact James Dyson is suing the EU for £200 million.

Is O'Brien smug because he is being proven right, I wonder ?  (now that IS a low blow  )

I never actually listened to the Dale/Smith podcast, I should give it a go... you got me at smut 

You are right, Brexit is done and we have to live with it and somehow move on, but considering how we have been sold it over the last 4 years (and the changes thereof like Que posted further up), there should still be some ongoing accountability and questions to be asked when the outcome is having a negative impact on (some) businesses, exports, goods circulation, employment, workers rights, circulation of your own population, settled EU residents and impact on your expats in the EU too. We were never going to get all those sunny uplands but a working system is at least what we should expect (like with any new policy for that matter). Time will tell if these are teething issues for some positives later or if we are being sold down the river and we simply shafted ourselves.

Your vaccine point was not a low blow by the way. It is objectively one thing that the UK has done quickly and decisively, the EU not so much (My parents let me know yesterday that several French regions closed their vaccinations centres for the foreseeable because they do not any have stock left of the vaccines . Quite worrying in comparison to my partner's dad already vaccinated and her mum due next week. When all four parents are in the 71-75 age group, the difference is striking... )

Thanks for the link, I never knew that. I don't suppose we'll get the hard shoulder on the M62 back though, it's a bit slower for me now to avoid it in favour of a safer route when I have to go that way.

Nor did I, steve, tbh.
I had a very vague memory that Germany was doing something to that effect (might be incorrect), I just looked up if the UK did as well.

[Papy Oli]

Fair points, although I would add that Johnson was, as far as I'm aware, responsible for that big lie on the bus about the money from the EU going to the NHS.

We have a saying in France: "The electoral promises only commit the ones who are reading them" 

[Que]

This will hopefully reduce the lorry traffic on our motorways to more acceptable levels. It's a couple of hundred miles drive through the busiest areas to enter Britain at one side only to leave at the other and the roads have become choked. I don't suppose foreign lorries pay anything towards the endless repairs and "upgrades".

Less lorries will certainly be the case... 

But it is important to realise that those lorries also signify economic activity.
We're talking about an entire logistics & distribution chain from mainland Europe to Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.
A lot of goods are first transported to the UK, stored and then redistributed. This involves UK logistics and distribution centres and transportation companies that will have less bussiness. Also the extra volume destined for Ireland made the whole process for goods destined for the UK cheaper. Conclusion: less lorries but also less business and higher distribution and transportation costs.

Perhaps not anything dramatic in itself (unless you are running a company primarily focused on the distribution and transportation chain to Ireland), but it all adds up. All these economic shifts will result in casualties in companies and in jobs, and to decreased economic efficiency overall. And decreasing economic efficiency means loss of wealth (GDP).

Q

[Que]

What have you heard about any EU businesses being hurt who previously sold a lot of their product(s) to the UK?

PD

The damage to just the Dutch economy has been forecasted to be a €4.5 bilion hit on Dutch GDP and a loss of 17.700 jobs.

We talking about the export of food, flowers, machinery, chemical products, but also legal services and banking.

Brexit will destroy a part of our shared wealth. Allthough this is a two sided process, the damage on the EU side will be shared, if unequally, amongst several member states. The damage on the UK side is for the UK to bear alone.

Q

[Que]

Brexit has politically reignited the issue of Scottish independence, but has simultaneously raised the economic stakes on independence:


Scottish independence would be 2-3 times more costly than Brexit, and rejoining the EU won't make up the difference

Q

[Que]

Exports from UK to EU down 68% since Brexit trade deal, say hauliers (Reuters)

[MusicTurner]

What have you heard about any EU businesses being hurt who previously sold a lot of their product(s) to the UK?

PD

It's affecting Danish agricultural export to the UK, traditionally high, and Danish fishing, but the effects might be more limited than feared - a little to early to tell.

As regards UK music shops, they'll be hit hard, I don't plan to buy from Presto or other UK sites any more, customs/handling fees will be too high. German JPC, locals and others will take over.

[Iota]

Exports from UK to EU down 68% since Brexit trade deal, say hauliers (Reuters)

They should have known that loss of GMG custom would exact a heavy toll! 

[Que]

They should have known that loss of GMG custom would exact a heavy toll! 

All those CDs.... 

[Pohjolas Daughter]

It's affecting Danish agricultural export to the UK, traditionally high, and Danish fishing, but the effects might be more limited than feared - a little to early to tell.

As regards UK music shops, they'll be hit hard, I don't plan to buy from Presto or other UK sites any more, customs/handling fees will be too high. German JPC, locals and others will take over.

I wonder whether or not PrestoC might find it economically viable to set up a warehouse in the EU?

Idea:  Perhaps those of you who regularly order from them might suggest it/ask if they're planning on setting up something...and perhaps send a link or two to relevant comments on GMG?  I'd hate to see Amazon get yet more of our money and the 'little guys' go under. 

PD

[MusicTurner]

I wonder whether or not PrestoC might find it economically viable to set up a warehouse in the EU?

Idea:  Perhaps those of you who regularly order from them might suggest it/ask if they're planning on setting up something...and perhaps send a link or two to relevant comments on GMG?  I'd hate to see Amazon get yet more of our money and the 'little guys' go under. 

PD

Good thinking! I never buy from Amazon itself, btw.