Brexit

[Florestan]

That's a mighty BIG if in the middle of your reasoning.

I mean, next you're going to start arguing it's a secret plan to enrich the legal profession when all the cases go to court.

And that's the problem. You look at a situation and assume it must be planned. For some reason people like believing in elaborate plans. Possibly it's because our best dramatic fiction involves elaborate cunning plans that are gradually revealed to us, as puzzles to be solved. I'm currently watching a pretty entertaining Danish series called "Bedrag" (Deception, though sadly in English they've actually called it Follow the Money), where in both the seasons I've watched the chief villain of the piece has constructed a devilishly elaborate plan to enrich himself that others haven't been able to spot until it's too late for them.

But anyone who works in government, at least, will tell you that real life is exactly the opposite. People don't plan ENOUGH. I'm a highly analytical person and a huge part of my job is pointing out to people the things they haven't thought through enough, the consequences they haven't spotted, the risks they haven't addressed.

We live in an actual world where many people aren't capable of working out that the next traffic light is likely to change before they get there. You're the kind of person who looks at the particular risk that has actually happened, and wrongly reason that this must be the outcome that someone planned. No, it's just one of the several or many possibilities that someone didn't guard against sufficiently to prevent.

If I were 71dB I'd point out that, while your analysis is correct, the outcome of all that incompetence is more often than not that the rich and the powerful get richer and more powerful --- and very rarely that the poor and the powerless enrich or empower themselves.

[71 dB]

If I were 71dB I'd point out that, while your analysis is correct, the outcome of all that incompetence is more often than not that the rich and the powerful get richer and more powerful --- and very rarely that the poor and the powerless enrich or empower themselves.

Thanks for pointing this out for me. I am not interested to argue much about these things so I left it as it is. Nowadays when I start arguing about stuff on forums I get in trouble with the admin, so I don't do it anymore. Why bother? I won't change anyones mind, nor do I benefit from changing anyones mind. It is waste of time that results in bans and what not. No thanks. I say what I think once and leave it as that.

[Madiel]

...the possibility of your own mind being changed is startlingly absent from the calculation.

[Madiel]

If I were 71dB I'd point out that, while your analysis is correct, the outcome of all that incompetence is more often than not that the rich and the powerful get richer and more powerful --- and very rarely that the poor and the powerless enrich or empower themselves.

Sure. But that's also true when things go RIGHT. Having money and power is what gives you the ability to take opportunities, and it's also what gives you the ability to take action to recover when things go wrong. The port owners have the resources to threaten a lawsuit over this.

What doesn't follow, though, is the idea that anyone deliberately planned to get into a situation where the ports are threatening a lawsuit. There are easier ways to make money.

[Que]

Well, there actually was a conspiracy of some sorts.... And it was not about money but about power.

The right wing of the Conservative Party used Brexit, and the referendum on Brexit, to take control of the party and subsequently the country. All they had to do was channel all popular discontent, and there was (and is) plenty of that, towards the notion that a break up with the EU would solve all problems. And Boris jumped on that bandwagon to become PM.

I'd recommend watching Brexit: The Uncivil War

The slogan "take back control" was sold to the British as a way taking their destiny in their own hands. I reality it resulted in a take over of the UK by the British version of "neo-conservatives".

[Madiel]

Oh I can agree with that particular bit of plotting. Because far too many politicians spend all their time plotting about their own gain of power. They just have zero clue what to do with it once they have it...

[71 dB]

...the possibility of your own mind being changed is startlingly absent from the calculation.

I don't have a firm opinion about this issue. All I have is speculation based on recognising patterns in UK politics. Maybe in the future someone explores this deep and provides better information. Even if I had a firm opinion, I don't see how changing it would matter at all. The World would still be what it is including your life. I am often wrong, because my mind recognises patterns a lot generating all kind of narratives that may or may not be true. That's who I am in good and bad.

[Irons]

I don't have a firm opinion about this issue. All I have is speculation based on recognising patterns in UK politics. Maybe in the future someone explores this deep and provides better information. Even if I had a firm opinion, I don't see how changing it would matter at all. The World would still be what it is including your life. I am often wrong, because my mind recognises patterns a lot generating all kind of narratives that may or may not be true. That's who I am in good and bad.

Must be me, but I read your post three times and still have no idea.......

[Que]

An update on Brexit.. Or not really, because the general picture is the same as always: it is still a stupid decision, it is still not over and the Tory govt. still tries to make sense of it all by making additional stupid decisions and selling fairy tales...


Move to override Brexit deal gets initial backing from MPs

Six years on, the cold reality of Brexit is hitting Britain


Meanwhile the OECD has predicted that the growth of the UK economy will be the lowest of the G20, apart from Russia. Nonsense, according to UK ministers...  I guess economists at the OECD is are incompetent?

Also has the Ukraine crisis reaffirmed the strategic and geopolitical significance of the EU.

[MusicTurner]

Sturgeon announcing a new Scottish independence referendum in October 2023; if rejected by the court, then with a 'guiding' result.

There was a referendum in 2014 too (55-45).

[Florestan]

Sturgeon announcing a new Scottish independence referendum in October 2023; if rejected by the court, then with a 'guiding' result.

There was a referendum in 2014 too (55-45).

Well, had the UK remained in EU Scottish independence would have been truly unthinkable and unfeasible (Spain, France and Romania would have vetoed it for obvious reasons).  Now that they are outside EU, they may have their chance.

[steve ridgway]

It would solve the problem of a customs border in the Irish Sea.

[Madiel]

Well, had the UK remained in EU Scottish independence would have been truly unthinkable and unfeasible (Spain, France and Romania would have vetoed it for obvious reasons).  Now that they are outside EU, they may have their chance.

Indeed, one of the key arguments made AGAINST Scottish independence was that they wouldn't be able to stay in the EU.

Rarely has a country been so screwed over as Scotland was in that process. Boris Johnson's insistence that Scotland can't have another referendum, when the English changed the whole situation shortly afterwards, is simply ludicrous. Scotland has effectively voted twice to be in the EU, and was dragged out of it.

[Que]

Sturgeon announcing a new Scottish independence referendum in October 2023; if rejected by the court, then with a 'guiding' result.

There was a referendum in 2014 too (55-45).

I think at least 60% needs to be in favour of independence for the result to be convincing en politically relevant.

[Que]

Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: Commission launches four new infringement procedures against the UK

[Madiel]

Eventually the UK is going to have to decide which of 1. The Good Friday agreements, 2. Brexit and 3. Treating Northern Ireland as a part of the UK like any other it can do without.

Because you can logically only have 2 of these 3.

It so happens that the first two involve international agreements.

[Irons]

Indeed, one of the key arguments made AGAINST Scottish independence was that they wouldn't be able to stay in the EU.

Rarely has a country been so screwed over as Scotland was in that process. Boris Johnson's insistence that Scotland can't have another referendum, when the English changed the whole situation shortly afterwards, is simply ludicrous. Scotland has effectively voted twice to be in the EU, and was dragged out of it.

Cameron denied Scotland a second independence vote as will Truss/Rishi. Starmer also said he would not agree to it if in power. Johnson is simply following the government line. Pin a lot on him but not that.

I agree Brexit moves the goalposts. Scotland is entitled to a second referendum.   

[Mandryka]

The EU price cap on gas is £37 per mega watt hour.

The UK is £263.79 per mega watt hour.

A Brexit dividend for energy companies shareholders.

https://twitter.com/MrKennethClarke/status/1559536407563194368

[Que]

The EU price cap on gas is £37 per mega watt hour.

The UK is £263.79 per mega watt hour.

A Brexit dividend for energy companies shareholders.

https://twitter.com/MrKennethClarke/status/1559536407563194368

I'm sorry for Kenneth Clarke, but his claim is utter nonsense....

There is no such thing as an EU price cap. Measures are the perogative of national governments, and in fact different countries have chosen different approaches: price caps, nationalisation of energy companies, energy benefits for low incomes, etc.

[Que]

As recent political developments in Westminster have shown, Brexit is a gift of Brexiteers to the British people that keeps on giving. The Financial Times has recently posted this impression of the economic impact.

But what do they know? Even the Labour party now claims that you can "make Brexit work". Too scared to tell the majorities of the electorates in Wales and Engleand that they have been fooled into making a stupid decision? So instead, the electorate is fooled again - because the truth is too ugly. But not uglier than reality....

https://youtube.com/v/wO2lWmgEK1Y