Brexit

[Mandryka]

O shit, I think we're about to jump into the abyss.

[Mandryka]

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Ok, if I were to ask an MP that voted down May's deal again, what would they say they want? (Well, other than the ones that want to stay in the E.U.)  They actually want to leave with no agreement? They think May should negotiate a new deal in three days, after spending almost three years negotiating the current deal?

[Florestan]

Ok, if I were to ask an MP that voted down May's deal again, what would they say they want? (Well, other than the ones that want to stay in the E.U.) 

Make Great Britain Great Again! 

(So far they have succeeded only in making great fools of themselves -- no small achivement, to be sure).

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

About 10 years ago I visited the U.K., London and Cambridge (my wife is a Cambridge graduate) and felt deep admiration for the country. It this point there is little trace of that admiration left. I would understand if the E.U. decides to effectively expel the UK by refusing to consider any further extensions to the exit process. The strong argument against that is that the EU members would also suffer economically and similar idiots in other EU countries would be emboldened.

[Mandryka]

This was found in Pompeii, the so called "Pompeii masturbator", wanking as the ash cloud was approaching. Well this is a good metaphor for the British parliament.



Actually it's maybe the best thing he could have done.

[Florestan]

About 10 years ago I visited the U.K., London and Cambridge (my wife is a Cambridge graduate) and felt deep admiration for the country. It this point there is little trace of that admiration left.

Let's not exaggerate, though. At the darkest hour of Germany, people thought of Kant, Beethoven, Schiller and Goethe as much more representative of their nation than the thugs in power back then --- and they were right. For all their flaws and sins, the Brexiters are no Nazis by a long stretch, and we'll always have Shakespeare, Dickens, Mr. Bean and [insert your favorite British composer]. 

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

No, they're not Nazi's, more like a Monty Python skit.

[JBS]

As time on "Brexit Day" ticks away....

EU moves into crisis mode as it plans for no-deal Brexit

Today there will be a last vote on the exit agreement, without the joint declaration on a future relationship.

Interestingly, even if the exit agreement is rejected by Westminister, the EU is set to stick to its core elements as preconditions to any future agreement: 1) financial settlement (exit bill); 2) open Irish border; 3) preservation of citizen's rights.

In other words: there is no way around it.....

Also, I'd like to point out that payment of the exit bill and the preservation of an open Irish border are obligations under international law. This legitimises the EU to take (unilateral) actions to recuperate the money that is still owed by the UK and  opens the option to the Republic of Ireland to start proceedings at the International Court of Justice against the UK for violation of the Good Friday Agreement and a breach of good faith.

Q

I have lost track of the "exit bill".  What is it supposed to cover?

[Que]

I have lost track of the "exit bill".  What is it supposed to cover?

"£16.4bn (€18.5bn) towards the UK's contribution to the EU budget to 2020;
£18.2bn (€20.2bn) towards outstanding commitments for projects that have been signed off but not yet paid for by 2020 (The Reste à Liquider ("RAL") from successive Multiannual Financial Frameworks) to be paid up to 2028; and
£2.5bn (€2.7bn) for other financial liabilities such as pensions and other employee benefits after offset of assets.The payments towards the pension liabilities are estimated to be made until 2064.

The UK Government's updated estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 is £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion)."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_divorce_bill

Q

[JBS]

"£16.4bn (€18.5bn) towards the UK's contribution to the EU budget to 2020;
£18.2bn (€20.2bn) towards outstanding commitments for projects that have been signed off but not yet paid for by 2020 (The Reste à Liquider ("RAL") from successive Multiannual Financial Frameworks) to be paid up to 2028; and
£2.5bn (€2.7bn) for other financial liabilities such as pensions and other employee benefits after offset of assets.The payments towards the pension liabilities are estimated to be made until 2064.

The UK Government's updated estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 is £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion)."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_divorce_bill

Q

Thank you. I think a whole lot of international legal wrangling is ahead of us on that issue.

[vandermolen]

There is an alternative view here. Whilst the government and parliament have been obsessed with Brexit people have largely been allowed to get on with their lives with minimum government interference. The economy is largely doing well. Long Live Weak Government.

[André]

There is an alternative view here. Whilst the government and parliament have been obsessed with Brexit people have largely been allowed to get on with their lives with minimum government interference. The economy is largely doing well. Long Live Weak Government.

I read here that Brexit is a national obsession, cliffhanger politics at its worst.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/brits-pretend-theyre-sick-of-brexit-but-truth-is-theyre-obsessed/2019/03/25/87ba0202-4f02-11e9-bdb7-44f948cc0605_story.html?utm_term=.fce4d27a0b06

Also, it seems that euroxexiters have suddenly become a lot less enthusiastic about unzipping their borders with Europe's:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frexit-italeave-after-watching-brexit-other-european-countries-say-no-thanks/2019/03/29/7b6e059a-4be0-11e9-8cfc-2c5d0999c21e_story.html?utm_term=.3e7d6e5718e1

Brexit may have served a purpose after all...

[Mr. Minnow]

There is an alternative view here. Whilst the government and parliament have been obsessed with Brexit people have largely been allowed to get on with their lives with minimum government interference. The economy is largely doing well. Long Live Weak Government.

The obvious counterargument to that is that there are huge problems in the UK that official economic stats don't reflect. The numbers may look good on the surface, but dig a bit deeper and you find an explosion in the number of people relying on food banks to survive, a similarly alarming increase in levels of in-work poverty and the number of children living in poverty, living standards that haven't really recovered from the crash of a decade ago, the ongoing benefit freeze driving ever more vulnerable people to the point where they can't make ends meet, people classed as employed even if they only work a couple of hours in a week (the scourge of ZHCs), others who may be employed but whose job doesn't pay anywhere near enough to live on, etc..  These are all really serious problems, but they're getting sod all coverage because of Brexit.

[Mr. Minnow]

Will this lead to a unified Ireland and/or Scottish independence?

Both are possible. If we crash out with a no deal Brexit and see the return of a hard border in Ireland that would be hugely damaging to the Good Friday Agreement and the peace of the last 20 years. The DUP may have a lot of influence at present as they prop up the Tories in the Commons, but in the referendum the result in NI was 56-44 for remain, so they don't represent majority NI opinion on Brexit. If a no deal scenario were to cause a serious enough deterioration economically and politically, it is at least possible that there would be pressure for a border poll. If that were to happen it's impossible to say now if it would result in a vote for a united Ireland - we're a long way from it as things stand and it would depend on the circumstances - but it's possible. The DUP may see it as a credible threat, because Nigel Dodds (their leader at Westminster) has said they'd rather remain in the EU (even though they supported Brexit) than sign up to anything which they regard as a threat to NI's place in the UK.

The situation in Scotland is somewhat different. Scotland voted heavily for remain by 62-38. Any form of Brexit therefore means Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will, and the harder the Brexit, the less support it will have in Scotland. If we crash out with no deal, there is one school of thought that says Scotland would never vote for independence as the rest of the UK is its main trading market, and it would therefore be way too risky to compound being wrenched out of the EU with a decision to leave the UK. That's possible, but it could go the other way. In the 2014 independence referendum the pro-union side was able to portray independence as the risky, leap in the dark option compared to the safer, better the devil you know option of staying in the UK (they also argued that voting to stay in the UK was the only way to protect Scotland's place in Europe - that's not gone so well). But if a hard/no deal Brexit looks certain to be economically disastrous, the "safety first" argument for staying in the UK no longer applies. It doesn't make independence less risky, but if staying in the UK looks likely to be a pretty terrible option anyway, there may be many Scots who conclude that they may as well roll the dice on independence. The other factor to consider is who replaces May as Tory leader: the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg may go down well in parts of England, but it's a different story north of the border.

[vandermolen]

The obvious counterargument to that is that there are huge problems in the UK that official economic stats don't reflect. The numbers may look good on the surface, but dig a bit deeper and you find an explosion in the number of people relying on food banks to survive, a similarly alarming increase in levels of in-work poverty and the number of children living in poverty, living standards that haven't really recovered from the crash of a decade ago, the ongoing benefit freeze driving ever more vulnerable people to the point where they can't make ends meet, people classed as employed even if they only work a couple of hours in a week (the scourge of ZHCs), others who may be employed but whose job doesn't pay anywhere near enough to live on, etc..  These are all really serious problems, but they're getting sod all coverage because of Brexit.

Yes, I think that you are right - rise in knife crime, homelessness  etc. The whole Brexit thing has been a complete disaster for which I blame David Cameron for calling what was bound to be a divisive referendum in the first place and then scuttling off when it didn't go his way. If Boris Johnson becomes PM I may emigrate.

[Que]

So the exit agreement was voted down for a 3rd time.

Note that Labour voted against, although Corbyn hasn't expressed any objection the actual content of the agreement.
Labour did this to prevent handing any Tory successor of May the keys of the next round of negotiations on the future relationship with the EU.

Previously, I predicted that May's deal would squeeze through with the support of hardline Tory Brexiteers and Labour leavers. But Rees-Mogg cs realised too late that they overplayed their hand...

My new prediction now: a long delay and general elections, with possibly a hung parliament as a result.
The next government by Labour, or led by Labour, will negotiate a softer Brexit - customs union + internal market, or something close. On which a referendum will be held since a large part of Labour and  a possible coalition partner is pro-remain. Chances are that by then, 1-2 years from now, sentiment will have firmly swung towards remain...

The alternative scenario will be that the Tories will crash the UK out of the EU without a deal.
But that seems unlikely...

Q

[The new erato]

Guardian:

This was the day when Big Ben was supposed to ring at 11pm to mark the UK's departure from the EU. When the Red (white and blue) Arrows did a fly past. When new 50p coins were worth 40p. Instead, we were back in a looking-glass world where everyone knew less than they did before. It can't be long before no one knows anything. Back to the future.

Everything was up for grabs in Schrödinger's Brexit: when we were leaving, if we were leaving and how we were leaving; who would be the prime minister, and if there would be a general election. Anything and everything was still possible. Parliament had said something but no one could interpret the language it was speaking. A delegation of ministers was going to No 10 to speak to Lino, but there was no guarantee she would be there. She is lost even unto herself.

There was just one certainty. By voting with the government, Boris Johnson had traded his principles for his career. But then we had always known he would. Johnson's untrustworthiness is the only solid thing the country has left to hang on to. A Newtonian rock in a Quantum Brexit. We really are that far up shit creek.

[NikF4]

Yes, I think that you are right - rise in knife crime, homelessness  etc. The whole Brexit thing has been a complete disaster for which I blame David Cameron for calling what was bound to be a divisive referendum in the first place and then scuttling off when it didn't go his way. If Boris Johnson becomes PM I may emigrate.

I hope it doesn't come to that, both that he becomes PM and as a result you and others feel to the need to emigrate. But here's my opinion - bearing in mind I don't usually post in political threads - of how I see things.
No matter what happens, everyone will get through it. It won't be quick or pleasant, but everyone will get through it. As usual, there will be political manoeuvring, power games, below the belt attempts at manipulating the masses, along with the ongoing unashamed dispensing of huge amounts of generic BS. As expected, there will even be comment and/or derison delivered with glee from the ignorant peanut gallery watching from near and far, despite their own recent past(s) and ongoing vulnerabilities on the world stage. But here, everyone will get through it, because that's what people do, that's what we're all built to do.
When I was 16 the best advice I've ever been given of any type was offered by my boss. It's a standard, a particularly tired old warhorse of a cliche, but none the worse for that. 'Never let the bastards get you down".

[vandermolen]

I hope it doesn't come to that, both that he becomes PM and as a result you and others feel to the need to emigrate. But here's my opinion - bearing in mind I don't usually post in political threads - of how I see things.
No matter what happens, everyone will get through it. It won't be quick or pleasant, but everyone will get through it. As usual, there will be political manoeuvring, power games, below the belt attempts at manipulating the masses, along with the ongoing unashamed dispensing of huge amounts of generic BS. As expected, there will even be comment and/or derison delivered with glee from the ignorant peanut gallery watching from near and far, despite their own recent past(s) and ongoing vulnerabilities on the world stage. But here, everyone will get through it, because that's what people do, that's what we're all built to do.
When I was 16 the best advice I've ever been given of any type was offered by my boss. It's a standard, a particularly tired old warhorse of a cliche, but none the worse for that. 'Never let the bastards get you down".

Thanks Nik. I guess that I wouldn't really emigrate as I said that I'd do so, in my university days, if Mrs Thatcher came to power and I never did.

The Stephen Hawking commemorative coin features a Black Hole; it would have been a more appropriately symbol for the Brexit commemorative coin, which now has the wrong date on it.