Brexit

[mahler10th]

What's the take on all this in Scotland? How do you see it panning out (within Scottish politics)?

In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   

Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames....If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

I wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***

[Mr. Minnow]

In 2014, a front page tri-party pledge (Clegg, Milliband and Cameron) for us to vote against Independence included an assurance that Scotland would always remain a part of Europe.  Now only three years later, none of these people are in power, the 'assurance' is in tatters, and we are being pulled out of Europe against our own sovereign wishes.  Nobody wants to hear the cry of 'Independence' yet again.  Even I am fed up with it!  But Brexit is such a constitutional spit in the face for Scotland that IndyRef 2 will be set before or by 2021.  Er...I think I see it panning out that way.   

Just how bad the final deal is will surely be the deciding factor as far as independence is concerned. If we get a deal which is pretty bad but not an outright catastrophe then maybe a majority of Scots will decide to stick with the UK as "better the devil you know". But if Brexit turns out to be a train wreck - a very distinct possibility - then independence might actually look like the less risky option. Still a leap in the dark with pitfalls aplenty of course, but that may not seem so bad if the alternative looks certain to be a disaster. And if that's the case, I doubt the Tories could rely on Colonel Davidson to spin them out of that particular hole. She may be effective when on the offensive, but when she has to defend something controversial she really struggles. Though if the Brexit deal is that bad I'm not sure even she would want to try to defend it.

I wanted to comment about the two sentences above, which is why they are isolated in one quote.  Unfortunately, simply editing out intervening sentences has led to the two orphaned sentences meaning something entirely different to what you meant...so I can no longer comment.   

***...runs away screaming in Political confusion...***

Believe me, if I'd meant what those two sentences mean when juxtaposed in isolation I'd be seriously concerned about the state of my sanity!

[nodogen]

Scottish independence would surely be a foregone conclusion if the Tory Brexiteers try to use Brexit as a way of turning Britain into Tax Haven-on-Thames. It's an ideological dream which they might well try to push as "our only hope" if the negotiations with the EU go tits up and we crash out with no deal. I can't see the Scots wanting to be chained to a country cast in the image of hard right nutters like Rees Mogg, Patel and Raab. They would surely vote for independence in droves. If they did I wouldn't blame them, in fact Scotland might then start to look very attractive indeed to quite a few people south of the border.

Never mind Ireland, Scotland will need a "hard" border to minimise the influx of refugees from England. I'm already packing.

[Spineur]

These negotiations seem to reflect the UK and European characters very well.

[Que]

Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-taking-back-control-united-kingdom-giving-up-control/



PS No idea why Juncker is whining about Brexit - with the Brits still aboard the EU could absolutely forget all about its new agenda for further integration, like a common defense, tax harmonisations, a EU monetary fund, etc., etc.

Q

[André]

And this, from the Guardian (but wriiten by a non-Brit):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld

[nodogen]

Reality of being a medium size country in a global economy is sinking in.....

Unfortunately, reality is never going to sink into the brexiteers.

[Mr. Minnow]

Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!

[nodogen]

Remember how within 24 hours of the referendum the Brexiteers started denying that they'd ever claimed Brexit would give us another £350million per week that we could spend on the NHS? Well.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/15/boris-johnson-we-will-claw-back-350m-a-week-post-brexit-after-all

All those denials for nothing. Oh dear!

You wouldn't trust him to tell you the time.

Why is he still in a job? Any job.

[Que]

No matter how you look at it, the best solution has been staring us in the face from day one:

The UK stays in the internal market and customs union for at least a transitional period for the remaining duration of the current EU budget, which would mean about two years I believe. It would avoid a cliff edge Brexit and resolve the EU's budgetary problem.

It could be arranged by a customs treaty and the UK either joining EFTA, or joining the treaty on the European Economic Area on its own (which requires a treaty change), or by way of seperate treaties replicating it.

Since these are "off the shelf" options, the whole arrangement could be fixed fairly smoothly and quickly.

The reason why the UK seems reluctant to acknowledge the obvious, is IMO the fear that it would eventually become a permanent situation for domestic political reasons.
A new UK government could easily delay, postpone or rule out any full withdrawal from European economic cooperation.

Q

[nodogen]

Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

[Que]

Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

Another option would be to move to Scotland before it secedes.... 


Anyway, damage control by staying in the internal market seems to best option at the moment.

Eurosceptic Neo-Marxist Corbyn doesn't want that either, but might be pursuaded by the rest of his party.

And before it is all over, I wouldn't rule out a major political/constitutional crisis either.... All the necessary ingredients are there: an outdated political system,  unequal distribution of political power and of wealth, major domestic tensions and major external pressures.

Q

[Spineur]

Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.

[Mr. Minnow]

Boris Johnson reignite leadership speculations with Brexit plan

Yes things could get worse if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May.  This guy has not the faintest clue how an economy works.  Still thinking that its a zero sum game with a Malthusian view of the UK vs the rest of the world.  This guy needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.

From the article:

Once out of the European Union, the country should borrow to invest in infrastructure

How odd - when Corbyn proposes borrowing to invest he's accused of thinking there's a magic money tree and the Tory press assures us that such plans would lead to economic collapse. But when it comes from good old Boris it's apparently fine. It's almost as if there were some kind of double standard at work.

[Mr. Minnow]

Admittedly a more radical solution (suggested by my partner I hasten to add) is to deport all those who voted for this mess. (With Farage in the first batch).

For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!

[nodogen]

For good measure perhaps they should be deported to Brussels? Seems perfectly reasonable to me!

That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.

[Mr. Minnow]

That would be just too modern for them AND full of foreigners. I was thinking more of St Kilda.

It would be Royston Vasey Mk II. With a Local Shop and everything.

[nodogen]

Frankie Boyle piece on Brexit (and Trump n Clinton)

https://youtu.be/VzNOy7v_4wA

NSFW 🤐

[Mr. Minnow]

Worth a read:

https://reaction.life/boris-memorandum-scrappy-juvenile-incoherent/

[nodogen]

An interesting read in the Financial Times:

Brexit is Britain's gift to the world

Q

I'll take your word for it; the FT has a paywall. 😳