Brexit

[Spineur]

Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

no concrete figure for Brexit bill
some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

Good luck Britain.

[Mr. Minnow]

Very poor Florence Speech by Theresa May.

no concrete figure for Brexit bill
some imaginary mumbling of a 'better than CETA & EEA' model, void of any real content.

Good luck Britain.

Some reaction:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/22/theresa-may-florence-speech-brexit-plan

John Redwood's take on it is interesting: apparently we're the ones in a strong position and it's the EU that has no plan. No, really.

[Spineur]

- Quite interesting reactions.

On the financial front, Moodys downgrades the UK debt.....just a few hours after Theresa May speech.  And the city opened the champagne as they understood that Brexit will never happen at the rate things are going.

[Que]

Things are looking increasingly gloomy... From the ft:

Germany rejects May's Brexit transition hopes. Berlin-led countries insist divorce bill from EU will be resolved first.

Germany and France have dashed British hopes of fast-tracking talks on a two-year post-Brexit transition deal, insisting that the UK's EU divorce bill be resolved first. British officials had hoped that EU leaders would jump-start negotiations at a high-profile Brussels summit in two weeks by approving the opening of talks on a transition period after Britain's exit in 2019, which Theresa May proposed in her Florence address last month. But according to European diplomats, a Germany-led group of EU countries has demanded more clarity on the long-term financial commitments Britain will honour. The UK insists it will only do this once the shape of its future relationship with the EU is clear, including a transition period. Essential stories related to this article Brexit Brexit number crunch: the final bill the EU could accept.

Berlin's tough stance will be of particular concern to London, coming just a week after Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, met Mrs May to discuss Brexit and her Florence speech, which offered to use transition payments to cover an EU budget shortfall of at least €20bn. The setback comes amid further signs that post-Florence hopes of smoother Brexit sailing are beginning to fade. The UK's two main negotiators are battling each other for staff and resources days before the fifth round of Brexit talks begin next week. According to an internal email seen by the Financial Times, Olly Robbins, who left his job as head of the Department for Exiting the EU last month to set up a rival "Europe Unit" in Downing Street, is openly trying to poach his former colleagues from David Davis, the Brexit secretary.

The Berlin roadblock and renewed cabinet infighting comes after the disarray at this week's Conservative party conference, sapping Mrs May of much of the momentum she enjoyed after her well-received address in Italy. The uncompromising positions in Berlin and Paris emerged on Friday as ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU members held their first debate on the union's approach to transition talks, including the option of approving exploratory negotiations at an October summit. Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, outlined the potential benefits of opening talks on a transition deal at the meeting. He argued that they could create space to resolve the big outstanding issues on a Brexit bill, as well as recognise Britain's recent more accommodative stance. But this option was firmly rejected by a group of countries led by Germany and France, which took a stricter view on the sequence of negotiations, according to several diplomats briefed on the meeting. Germany's resistance suggests that the EU27 will not let up pressure on divorce issues in the coming months, in spite of the Florence overture from Mrs May. One EU ambassador told his colleagues: "We are not here to save the Tory party."

As a gesture to recognise progress, the EU is considering starting an internal "scoping" exercise on a transition deal, where the EU27 would prepare for talks with the UK at a later stage. While an advance of sorts, this falls well short of London's hopes that talks would begin after the summit in October. Some diplomats involved in the discussions speculated that Berlin's tough line may be tactical to raise pressure and lower expectations ahead of a summit where EU leaders would take a more accommodating approach. Mr Barnier argued that the Berlin-backed approach should make the summit of EU leaders in October a "stepping stone" to a potential deal in December, where "sufficient progress" on a Brexit bill is acknowledged and transition talks can begin. If a delayed timetable were adopted at the summit in October it would be a serious blow to British business, which is warning ministers that an end-of-year deal on a transition period is essential to avoid a wave of companies decamping operations to the continent because of uncertainty.

The stalemate comes as Germany's biggest business lobby has warned members to prepare for a "very hard Brexit" because Britain lacks a clear strategy. Mr Barnier's team, meanwhile, has started meeting national customs authorities handling UK trade to make sure that they are preparing for all scenarios, including no deal. The British negotiating team hopes to make progress on the question of citizen's rights in next week's talks but there is not expected to be a new offer on the question of the Brexit bill. "It will be a fairly quiet negotiating round," one British official predicted.

Q

[vandermolen]

None of this surprises me. All Cameron's fault for holding the unnecessary referendum in the first place without enfranchising the sixteen and seventeen year olds who will be the ones most affected by Brexit - what a mess!

[Spineur]

You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.

[Christo]

This guy has not the faintest clue ... needs to go back to school and learn a thing or two.

Correct. Though some American guy leads the tough Dumbest Politician Ever competetion, here's another worthy pretender.

[vandermolen]

You have to admit that the Tory infightings and the pityful performance of T. May make things worse.  The E.U. negociators and the german bussiness community are convinced that the brexit process will end badely and that contingencies need to be ready to face this enventuality.

Yes, I do agree.

[Que]

Why it's not too late to step back from the Brexit brink

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

ARTICLE 68 - REVOCATION OF NOTIFICATIONS AND INSTRUMENTS PROVIDED FOR IN ARTICLES 65 AND 67

A notification or instrument provided for in articles 65 or 67 may be revoked at any time before it takes effect.

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q

[Spineur]

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q

Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.

[Turner]

More and more reports telling of May´s and / or Johnson´s possible replacement within not many weeks.

[mc ukrneal]

Why it’s not too late to step back from the Brexit brink

According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, any notification of withdrawal can be revoked before the withdrawal takes effect:

It's that simple....


The domestic and international political effects however, cannot be undone...


Q

As I understand it, they would revoke it and then resubmit it to start the two year clock ticking again. Apparently, they could do this indefinitely...

[Mr. Minnow]

Le renoncement is something which is difficult to accept for anybody, let alone for UK politicians.

Earlier, I thought a U-turn could be possible.  But the more time passes, the harder it gets.

You only have to look at the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg comparing the Brexit negotiations to Agincourt to see the mindset of the Brexit true believers. There's no way they would accept revoking article 50. The current Tory infighting would look like a model of sweetness and light compared to the civil war that would follow - they'd tear each other to pieces (though that may be inevitable no matter what kind of Brexit we end up with). And if the recent edition of Question Time from Brexit-supporting Wolverhampton is any guide, it seems leave voters still want Brexit come what may. All the usual delusional bollocks was there: we should just leave and go to WTO terms, the EU is being bitter and trying to punish us, we'll be fine because of all those shiny new trade deals that other countries will be queuing up to do with us, etc..

Maybe their opinion will shift when the effects of Brexit really hit home, but any talk of revoking article 50 now would turbocharge the Brexiteers' narrative of "remoaner saboteurs betraying the will of the people". It looks as though we will have to wait until we've hit the iceberg and the ship has sunk before we have any chance of sanity reasserting itself, and god knows what sort of damage will have been done by then.

[Turbot nouveaux]

I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.

[Mr. Minnow]

I fear that the only thing that may change some Brexiteers' minds is the reality of a disastrous Brexit. And even then, I wouldn't put it past them to blame everything and everyone else. Whereupon, what happens in the UK, God only knows.

Blaming everyone but themselves is exactly what they will do and it will certainly be the narrative of the Brexit-supporting press. There's no way the other 27 could justify to their own electorates giving us a deal that lets us keep the benefits of membership without the responsibilities - even though we're leaving - while the remaining members get no such deal. They also don't want to give us a cushy deal that encourages others to demand something similar, since that would risk the breakup of the entire EU, which the 27 quite rightly regard as the nightmare scenario, both politically and economically. But that won't stop the Brexiteers portraying the lack of such a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal as the EU trying to punish us for leaving by putting politics before economics.

The other main scapegoat will be remain voters, who will  be blamed for "sabotaging" Brexit by "talking the country down" (a phrase I expect to see pressed into service on a regular basis). There will be other excuses of course - for example, we've already seen criticism of "unpatriotic" broadcasters who have the temerity to ask awkward questions. The one thing you won't hear is an admission that Brexit was a really bloody stupid idea based on fantasy land delusions.



EDIT: right on time, here's ardent Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin

The first sentence sets the tone:

There is no intrinsic reason why Brexit should be difficult or damaging,

Indeed - what could be simpler or more risk-free than Brexit?

but the EU itself has so far demonstrated it wants to make it so; and it has co-opted the CBI, parts of the City and, it seems, the Treasury to assist

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

[Que]

Tin foil hattery at its finest.

Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!   

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

Yes, that's a pearl of a statement: Her Majesty's Treasury is in cahoots with the evil EU!   

Q

A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

The Treasury seems unable to hear any voices except those that reinforce their preconceptions. It seems blind to the facts

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.

[Turbot nouveaux]

A pearl of a statement indeed. But this is a cracker as well:

Yes, that's a Brexiteer accusing others of only listening to people who reinforce their preconceptions and being blind to the facts. Try not to laugh.

The age-old problem of motes and beams, it seems.

Of course, Mr Jenkin "has form" as they say, having been one of the original "Maastricht rebels" (or b**tards, as John Major might have put it). 

[Mr. Minnow]

I see that at PMQs that loathsome tosser Iain Duncan Smith asked if the government would spend whatever was necessary on Brexit preparations. The man who repeatedly hammered the sick and disabled with benefit cuts is willing to spend whatever it takes on his precious Brexit. Bastard.

Predictably enough, the Theresatron confirmed that yes, the government is willing to spend whatever it takes. If only she'd said "I'm afraid we don't have a magic money tree."

[Turner]

Marc Galeotti:
"How Putin could yet save Britain from Brexit ... there is a growing likelihood that later this year or early next we will see solid evidence of financial support for the Brexit camp, too ...likely to be revealed over the course of the several inquiries taking place on the other side of the Atlantic."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/02/putin-save-britain-brexit-russia-eu-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting, but the scenario is probably not that likely (?)