Main Menu

Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

André

After reading a sensible, neutral, factual piece on the german coalition collapse in Der Spiegel, I read this amazing piece of « alternative political thinking » in The Independent:


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/germany-angela-merkel-what-it-means-for-brexit-a8064861.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_todayworld


What's truly amazing here is that this very long article is not really on the current german political situation, but is all about GB and Brexit fantasy scenarios. The article's speculations, « what ifs » and other convolutions and fabulations are a reflection of what's wrong with UK politics: a tendency to believe the unbelievable, to invent and give credibility to bizarre scenarios, to ignore hard facts and refuse to face complex issues.

Jo498

The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated. (Technically it was only pre-negotiations.)
There is an acting government and these parties still have a majority in the parliament (although the SPD does not want to continue the coalition) there is no danger of anarchy or disorder at all and especially for foreign policy it is quite irrelevant if it takes another few months for a new government to be established or if there are going to be elections again in spring.
Tout le malheur des hommes vient d'une seule chose, qui est de ne savoir pas demeurer en repos, dans une chambre.
- Blaise Pascal

Spineur

Quote from: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 06:01:09 AM
The panic about the failed negotiations in Germany is extremely exaggerated.
Then you are going to love this front page of Liberation, a mildly leftist newspaper.

Jo498

It is not wrong that Merkel is clearly past her prime and the main reason she is not forced to step down is that her party does not have anyone better. (And because they are still the strongest party they also gloss over the fact that they had their worst election result in the last 50 years.) But this very different from a public crisis or so.
There are still several options, rare for Germany but constitutional and all in good order: re-negotiate for another coalition, minority goverment or new elections in early 2018.
(The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions, so they will again be forced to negotiate uncommon ones.)
Tout le malheur des hommes vient d'une seule chose, qui est de ne savoir pas demeurer en repos, dans une chambre.
- Blaise Pascal

Spineur

Quote from: Jo498 on November 21, 2017, 08:17:50 AM
The main problem is that another election will very probably not improve the situation because still no party will be strong enough for any of the "tradtional" coalitions
A (german) colleague thinks that the FDP could fall below 5% because of their poor communication in this unfruitful negotiation process.  If this was the case,  they would be out of the picture and putting together a coalition would be relatively easy.

Jo498

Right after the election and before any negotiation there was an article in a Swiss newspaper (probably NZZ) that warned the FDP to join the government and also predicted that next time (of course he meant 2021) they would again be kicked out of parliament and never come back.

Polls for elections right now are inconclusive but most predict very little change (so FDP would be in), except that Merkel's party would lose another 2-3%. But at ca. 29% they would still be the strongest! Even if you divide the 10% of the FDP somewhat evenly between other parties, it will not become easier. There would still be only one two-party-coalition ("grand coalition" of the last 4 years that was punished with the weakest results ever, so the SPD decided that they could not continue) and no feasible three-party-coalition because nobody wants to go with the right-wing AfD.

This is derailing this thread and I don't think we want a German Politics thread but it cannot be denied that it is a mess with no easy way out. But it is mostly a mess for our stupid parties and politicians, not anything that will lead to real instabilities or riots or something (you know, one would have to step on the lawn for riots, so Germans don't do it).
Tout le malheur des hommes vient d'une seule chose, qui est de ne savoir pas demeurer en repos, dans une chambre.
- Blaise Pascal

Christo

As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:
... music is not only an 'entertainment', nor a mere luxury, but a necessity of the spiritual if not of the physical life, an opening of those magic casements through which we can catch a glimpse of that country where ultimate reality will be found.    RVW, 1948

kishnevi

Quote from: Christo on November 21, 2017, 11:27:27 AM
As there is a strong correlation between the absence of refugees and other 'foreigners' in a region, and AfD votes - over 80 percent of stemming from the most "white" regions of Germany - there's a simple way to totally outdo the AfD: allocate the next influx of refugees to these "white" regions, and these Nazis will lose all support.  ;)

BTW, here's a simple map showing this correlation: left the percentage of foreigners, right the AfD vote:

There seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.

Christo

Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on November 21, 2017, 12:40:57 PMThere seems to be a strong correlation between the AfD vote and the areas that were once East Germany. The only exception seems to along the Czech-Bavarian border.
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?
... music is not only an 'entertainment', nor a mere luxury, but a necessity of the spiritual if not of the physical life, an opening of those magic casements through which we can catch a glimpse of that country where ultimate reality will be found.    RVW, 1948

kishnevi

Quote from: Christo on November 21, 2017, 12:57:45 PM
There is. And the 'Czech-Bavarian border' area - the Bavarian Woods or Bayerischer Wald‎ (where I often went skiing) - is equally devoid of 'foreigners', showing the same relation between the extreme right and a virtual perception of social reality. I guess the same pattern is discernable in the States?

To some extent, but not as clearcut. The basic divide is probably best thought of as urban v rural and/or inland v coastal. But immigrants can be found all over: farm workers in the rural areas, etc. Texas is heavily Republican (but not thoroughly, as Gurn and Brian can bear witness) and also heavily Hispanic, for instance.

Que

Ten days to crack Brexit deal, EU tells May


I'm still pessimistic, time to brace for impact....  ::)

Brexit: How the Netherlands is braced for 'no deal'

I guess due to our history we are a risk averse nation that likes to be prepared....

Q

Spineur

Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....


Que

#252
Quote from: Spineur on November 25, 2017, 10:56:43 PM
Theresa May wants to keep the 45-50 billions pounds brexit bill she has agreed to secret

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

In the age of internet ?  Come on, we already know the figure....

It is interesting how much fuss is made on the UK side about this exit bill.
For the EU it is just a settlement of outstanding financial obligations that will avoid a hole in the current budget.
If the UK will pay up its contribution, it will also be entitled to any payments out of the EU funds, which make will the total sum net out some £20 billion lower.
Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

The total of £111 billion all the rebates the UK has ever enjoyed does put things more in perspective, I think.
As does the estimated £72 billion each year in damage to the UK economy that is now predicted by 2021....

https://www.businessinsider.nl/the-economic-cost-of-brexit-in-gdp-2017-11/?international=true&r=UK

What is the saying again? Penny wise, pound foolish::)

Q

Mr. Minnow

Another giant stride towards those sunlit uplands has been taken thanks to Liam Fox, who is insisting that there can be no settling of the Irish border question until a trade deal with the EU has been agreed. So if you thought the sequencing of the talks is one of the few things which has been agreed, well Fox is doing his best to scupper even that. Naturally, he's blaming the EU for the lack of progress.

This is the same Liam Fox who, as defence secretary, was forced out of the government just a few years ago for taking his best man, businessman/lobbyist Adam Werritty, into official meetings - despite the fact that he had no security clearance. Fox also had to pay back Werritty's expenses after charging them to the state. How fortunate we are to have this peerless statesman back in government and making such a valuable contribution to Brexit.   

Mr. Minnow

Congratulations to Kate Hoey, who has graduated from the Donald Trump Academy of International Relations with this stellar example of diplomacy in action:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mp-says-ireland-would-have-to-pay-for-hard-border-without-brexit-deal-1.3306727

Spineur

#255
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.  I am quite interested to see the ones coming forward to derail the negociation process .

This is an easy way to spot Teresa May rivals among the tories.

In the meantime the GPB is soaring.  Too bad for those who forgot to stock up on the hyperion opera-rara and other UK labels !!!

Edit: UK government denies the Telegraph article.  So which one is the fake news ?

Turbot nouveaux

Quote from: Que on November 26, 2017, 01:11:05 AM

[...]

Though a proper settlement is for the EU a precondition to further negotiations, the real incentive for the EU to negotiate a transitional deal and trade deal is to avoid economic damage. The UK doesn't seem to get that, they think the exit bill provides the ultimate leverage to a magical dream deal...

Q


No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.

Que

Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on November 28, 2017, 10:17:26 AM

No, we get that. Unfortunately the unhinged Brexiteers see it quite differently. And I'm sorry to say, there are deluded souls on our political left and on our right.

I said "UK", but should have said "UK government".

My apologies to the 48%....  :-\

Q

Spineur

Quote from: Spineur on November 28, 2017, 09:16:04 AM
According to the Telegraph an agreement has been reached between the UK & EU on the divorce terms.
We know what the denials are all about.  This is what David Davis was saying Sept. 4th

https://www.youtube.com/v/O6zEjQLTkYU

Christo

'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain's own making, but Ireland's problems were the EU's. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK's offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw
... music is not only an 'entertainment', nor a mere luxury, but a necessity of the spiritual if not of the physical life, an opening of those magic casements through which we can catch a glimpse of that country where ultimate reality will be found.    RVW, 1948