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Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

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Mr. Minnow

A summary of what the Brexiteers promised, and where we actually are:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/01/the-brexit-climbdown-is-far-from-what-leaving-was-meant-to-look-like

Funnily enough, the Brexit-supporting press doesn't seem too keen on holding them to account for this embarrassing discrepancy. "Brexit will be great!" seems to have been replaced by "it's worth it no matter how high the cost." Who'd have thought it?

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Christo on December 01, 2017, 02:49:18 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain's own making, but Ireland's problems were the EU's. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK's offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

An issue of such acute political sensitivity and importance - and, as with everything else, the Brexiteers had literally no fucking clue what to about it if they won. No plan of any sort. Just blithe assurances that it wouldn't be a problem because the EU would let us keep the benefits of single market membership without any of the obligations, so no plan would be needed. Let that sink in.

Que

Quote from: Christo on December 01, 2017, 02:49:18 PM
'Ireland will have the final say on whether the UK has made sufficient progress in Brexit negotiations to move on to the next stage, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said. In a strongly worded statement expressing solidarity with Ireland, Tusk said Brexit problems were of Britain's own making, but Ireland's problems were the EU's. He warned that progress would not be possible if the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, was not satisfied with the UK's offer on the Irish border, which is scheduled to be tabled in Brussels on Monday.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/ireland-will-have-final-say-on-progress-of-brexit-talks-says-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

But mind that the "internal market" is not just about borders, it a single regulatory framework with shared rules on goods, services and capital. These shared rules ensure that incoming and outgoing goods or services meet commonly agreed standards. That is why they can freely flow within the EU.

For instance: to assure the free flow of agricultural produce between NI and Ireland and the rest of the EU, the produce will have to meet EU standards. And for that to happen, NI needs a regulatory framework that follows EU regulations. This needs to be separate from that of the rest of the UK if the UK deviates from those EU regulations.

A solution could be to create limited free trade by ensuring EU-conformity in key economic areas and exclude the rest, or accept the economic and regulatory distortion that will result from it and try to geographically limit its impact. Not a very attractive prospect from the EU....

The customs union is not an easy issue either - the customs border has to be somewhere.
Since trade between NI and the rest of the UK is considerably stronger than with Ireland,  it doesn't make sense from an economical point of view to shift the customs border Eastwards: the damage would be greater than the benefits. At least economically. ...

Q



Turbot nouveaux

Quote from: Que on December 02, 2017, 12:54:45 AM
I'm not sure if there's a way out on the issue of Northern Ireland, assuming the UK will leave the internal market and the customs union.

It is theoretically possible for NI to remain in the customs union and continue to be part of the internal market.

[...]

Q


Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)

Que

Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 02:10:12 AM

Yes, but the cost of this would be DUP fury because the 'threat' (from the point of view of diehard Unionists) of a united Ireland would have been brought so much closer. Arlene Foster would then end her 'confidence and supply' arrangement with the UK Conservatives and the government would surely fall quickly thereafter.

Not that any of this would be unwelcome... ::)

I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q

vandermolen

Quote from: Que on December 02, 2017, 02:54:03 AM
I have a hunch this Tory government might fall before this is all over, anyway.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Q

I don't recall a moment of greater political chaos than the present time.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Turbot nouveaux

#266
On April 1st, 2018 Theresa May will announce to parliament: "I have decided that Britain will not, after all, leave the EU. It is a ridiculous idea, and one that if put into action, seems likely to destroy our economy and the lives of many of our citizens and their families, not to say our academic institutions, our efforts to preserve our ecology and climate and much else of value besides.

My government's more extreme Brexiters are frankly delusional in their beliefs about the benefits of leaving the EU and the myriad complications of doing so, not least the imperiling of 30 years of peaceful cooperation in Ireland. President Trump, it is clear, will not offer the UK any sort of favourable trade deal and, however much some of us may not like the EU, we must stay within it and continue to receive the considerable benefits of membership of what is a very successful trading bloc. Our grievances and differences with the EU must be worked out in partnership with them as it continues to evolve.

I have presided over the most inept and shambolic period of government that this country has experienced in modern times. It is clear that I must now resign, and dissolve this government lest our country come to further grief under the leadership of a fanatical Brexiteer. It is time for Her Majesty's loyal opposition to take the reigns of power*.

As for me, having finally realised that I have no principles and come to terms with my own robotic but somehow also indecisive ineptitude, I shall be taking poison seeking political asylum in Maidenhead. Farewell!

*Such as that now is.


Not!  ::)


nodogen

Dammit Turbot, you got me all cheered up then!

Scion7

"Steady!  Steady!   Steady!"

All will be well at home, the Royal Navy will be rebuilt, then we can get down to some serious empire building again.
I'd recommend starting with Holland, but by that time the bloody country will be mostly underwater again . . .
When, a few months before his death, Rachmaninov lamented that he no longer had the "strength and fire" to compose, friends reminded him of the Symphonic Dances, so charged with fire and strength. "Yes," he admitted. "I don't know how that happened. That was probably my last flicker."

Turbot nouveaux

^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.

Christo

Quote from: Scion7 on December 02, 2017, 09:39:18 AMI'd recommend starting with Holland
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway
... music is not only an 'entertainment', nor a mere luxury, but a necessity of the spiritual if not of the physical life, an opening of those magic casements through which we can catch a glimpse of that country where ultimate reality will be found.    RVW, 1948

nodogen

Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 02, 2017, 09:40:14 AM
^^^ It was never plausible, nodogen. Too decisive, and too many principles.

I should have noticed the "April 1st" ....

vandermolen

Quote from: Christo on December 02, 2017, 10:10:18 AM
We'll repeat the raid on Chatham and bring new war trophies to the Rijksmuseum! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway


What an outrage! This must be returned by the Rijksmuseum to Britain immediately as part of the Brexit divorce bill.
I blame Charles II whom was apparently chasing a bluebottle round his palace whilst the Dutch were invading the Medway. Henry V would have been turning in his grave.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Turner

Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137


vandermolen

#274
Quote from: Turner on December 04, 2017, 04:08:02 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176

"If Northern Ireland effectively gets to stay in Single Market and Customs Union, Scotland likely to demand the same. Though Edinburgh has no one to wield a veto in Brussels."
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937664570348507137

Yes, that seems to be the case. I'm no admirer of Tony Blair but I totally agree with him on Brexit.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Turbot nouveaux

Quote from: Turner on December 04, 2017, 04:08:02 AM
Not yet confirmed, but:

"May has agreed to 'no regulatory divergence' in the island of Ireland. Means a deal today now very likely. But huge implications for future of UK. And (once again) a near total British climbdown. #brexit"
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/937663543855538176


Yes, quite. Arlene Foster and the DUP have said straight away that they're not happy with this.

Christo

Quote from: vandermolen on December 02, 2017, 12:32:06 PMHenry V would have been turning in his grave.
Well, two weeks ago you heard Walton's reading of this episode - did he actually make Henry V spinning in his grave?  ::)
... music is not only an 'entertainment', nor a mere luxury, but a necessity of the spiritual if not of the physical life, an opening of those magic casements through which we can catch a glimpse of that country where ultimate reality will be found.    RVW, 1948

Que

So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

What I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

But it does make sense from their point of view. What about a Brexit exclusively for "Little England"?  :D Seems to suit everybody's needs.... ::)



Q

Que

#278
I guess I'm  not the only one who sees parallels with the 1930's.....


Spineur

QuoteAnd predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.
The UK cannot be kept hostage by the DUP.  Eventually, the agreement will go through.