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Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

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Turner

Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn't run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537

Que

Quote from: Turner on December 04, 2017, 11:43:36 PM
Ed Milliband, official tweet ~statement:"What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn't run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country."

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/937960558170689537

After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q



vandermolen

Quote from: Que on December 04, 2017, 11:55:30 PM
After the referendum David Cameron was called the worst prime minister after Neville Chamberlain, but we now know better....  ::)

Holding another election and loosing her majority in parliament without the support of the DUP, nailed the fate of May's government IMO. It will fall soon, I think..

Q

I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Que

Quote from: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 01:05:06 AM
I think that Chamberlain has been dealt with unfairly by history. He made some foolish statements 'Peace in our time', 'Hitler's missed the bus' (just before the disastrous Norway campaign), however, because of him Britain was united with its then Empire (other than the Irish Free State) when war came and was much better prepared - the period of 'appeasement' had not been wasted in terms of building up aircraft in particular and when war came in 1939 it was clear to everyone who was to blame. This would not have been the case in 1938 after Hitler had maintained that the Sudetenland was his 'last territorial claim in Europe'. This does not mean that I support the appeasement policy (which involved a terrible betrayal of Czechoslovakia) but that I can understand, from a British point of view, why it was followed.

I think there are other candidates for worst Prime Minister, including Bonar Law (largely responsible for troubles in Ireland), Tony Blair re:Iraq although I totally agree with him on Brexit. Cameron would have been much more highly rated without the disastrous IMHO referendum decision.

I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q


Florestan

At any given time, the worst prime-minister in the history of any country with a parliamentary system is yet to come.  ;D
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Mr. Minnow

#285
Quote from: Que on December 04, 2017, 11:20:10 PM
So, negotiations on Northern Ireland went the only way I saw possible: towards territorial regulatory alignment (EU conformity). Basically replicating internal market conditions.

And predictably the DUP objected to this "one country, two systems" solution. The "Hong Kong option", so to speak.

Even if the DUP hadn't thrown a spanner in the works, the problem which you mentioned earlier would still have been there, namely that:

QuoteIf Ireland and NI had an open border while NI was outside of the EU, all imports would enter the EU through that border to avoid import duties and checks on EU health & safety standards. Once goods enter the EU customs union, they can freely circulate.

The proposed "regulatory alignment" might have solved that problem for Northern Ireland, but it wouldn't solve it for goods coming from the the rest of the UK. Why would the EU allow goods from England, Scotland and Wales to get round EU import duties and checks on health and safety standards by using an open border in Ireland? Even if a fudge is agreed in the next few days that everyone can live with for now, that doesn't resolve the problem, it just kicks it into the trade talks, and once there it can only be fudged for so long: sooner or later a definite decision will have to be made.

One way round this which is being mentioned on the lunchtime news is for regulatory alignment to apply to the whole of the UK. That would answer the DUP's objection of not treating NI differently to the rest of the UK, but I still don't see how it would work: that alignment might be wide-ranging enough that it effectively amounts to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name. Since the UK government has ruled out membership of both, it would be very hard for them to argue for a scenario in which we are technically outside both but in practice effectively still in. It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it, and that's not going to happen if we're still aligning our regulations to those of the customs union and single market.

On the other hand, regulatory alignment might be restricted to just a few specific, limited areas, just enough to keep an open border in Ireland but nowhere near a comprehensive agreement. Alignment thus limited would no longer amount to staying in the customs union and single market in all but name, but that would just take us back to the problem of the UK using an open border in Ireland to get round EU duties and regulation checks: there is no reason to think the EU will allow that to happen, in which case, what then?

QuoteWhat I didn't expect was Scotland and Wales, and even the mayor of London, banging on the door demanding the same!  ???

Nicola Sturgeon has been pushing the idea of Scotland staying in the single market since the referendum. The UK government has always dismissed the idea of different parts of the UK having different arrangements with the EU as impractical, but they can hardly say that now, not when they've conceded that it could work for NI.

What a triumph this is turning out to be for May: shafted by the party she bunged a billion quid, which she only needed to do because of an election she didn't need to call, designed to give her a mandate which she now cannot claim to have. Genius.

Turbot nouveaux

#286
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 05, 2017, 04:57:35 AM
It would also enrage the Brexit fanatics on the Tory backbenches, and probably those in the cabinet like Fox and Gove, who might well resign. For them, the whole point of Brexit is to get rid of that EU "red tape" which is "holding us back". They want regulatory divergence (or to put it another way, a race to the bottom) and plenty of it...


Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.

nodogen

We have not one but two unelected PMs: May and Foster. One of them will have to go...

nodogen

On a personal note, I'm looking forward to my next local party get together. We have an honorary guest and speaker by the name of Keir Starmer. 😊

(Unless he's too busy to attend!)


vandermolen

Quote from: Que on December 05, 2017, 04:07:24 AM
I agree the judgment on Chamberlain is too harsh.
However, Great Britain was not alone in using the extra time for a (continued) military build up.... In hindsight Hitler was bluffing...he wasn't ready either.
This means that the sacrifice of Tjechoslovakya was unnecessary and gave Hitler a strategic advantage, and fed his feelings of invincibility.

Blair's name, however, will probably go down in history in infamy, now the consequences of his support for Bush' folly grow worse and worse....

May's historical fame will depend on the outcome of this Brexit drama.
I for one never understood why someone who voted remain is willing to lead the country into the abyss...
Shows a lack of back bone.... Fortunately she is being payed back in full for her spinelessness.

Q

Largely agree with you although Britain was so poorly prepared for War in 1938 that by the law of 'Diminishing Marginal Utilities' (is that right? It's a long time since I got a 'D' at A-Level Economics) Britain made better use of the time. I know there is an argument that if Britain stood firm in support of the Czechs the German High Command were prepared to overthrow Hitler to prevent war in September 1938 but recent evidence suggests that this was unlikely.

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

nodogen

Quote from: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 09:41:19 AM

On a separate point why did May not consult the DUP before going to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).

Well this is the person who decided it was a good idea to call a general election. 🤔

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉


Que

Quote from: nodogen on December 05, 2017, 10:26:24 AM

To be fair, in hindsight I thought it was a good decision. 😉

Works out perfectly!  :laugh:

Christo

Quote from: vandermolen on December 05, 2017, 09:41:19 AMgoing to Bruxelles? (I prefer that spelling).
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
... music is not only an 'entertainment', nor a mere luxury, but a necessity of the spiritual if not of the physical life, an opening of those magic casements through which we can catch a glimpse of that country where ultimate reality will be found.    RVW, 1948

nodogen

#293
"The bottom line is that the May government is facing an impossible task," said Sarvamaa, adding that promises made to British voters during the referendum campaign and before June's snap election could not be kept. The government was in "an ever-worsening, deteriorating cycle," he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter     

vandermolen

Quote from: Christo on December 05, 2017, 11:49:47 AM
Traitor!  :D Brussel was the cradle of the Dutch language, especially when it turned into a European Renaissance centre around the court of Charles V. (Only when the new Belgian Kingdom preferred French as the language of its elite, the majority of Brusselaars became French-speaking in the late 19th Century. Nowadays the native language is spoken by only 10 percent.
Looks better on paper I think. Anyway you are deflecting to draw attention away from that precious artefact that you Dutch stole from Charles II.  :o
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Mr. Minnow

#295
Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 05, 2017, 07:06:06 AM

Which would be an excellent outcome. The spineless Mrs May needs to stand up to these deluded neoliberal extremists.

It would indeed be an excellent outcome, but as you say, May is utterly spineless, which means she wants to avoid confronting them at all costs. Her problem is that she will have to make a decision sooner or later whether she likes it or not. David Davis is trying to sell the idea of "regulatory alignment" for the whole of the UK and EU to his party on the grounds that "alignment isn't the same thing as harmonisation". Well, that's technically true. But there is not a snowball's chance in hell of the EU agreeing to this idea unless the degree of alignment between UK and EU regulations is very high. They aren't going to agree to an open border and "frictionless trade" if the differences between UK and EU regulatory regimes are at all significant, because if there are significant differences then the two regimes are, by definition, not aligned - they are divergent. So the most Davis can argue is that "regulatory alignment" means we don't have to have regulations and standards which are 100% identical to those of the customs union and single market - we can have a system which is very slightly different, but not very much.

That isn't going to appease the Brexit ultras. They want a bonfire of EU "red tape" to "set Britain free". They can't achieve that if we've already agreed to have a regulatory system only minimally different to the EU. And indeed, our old friend Jacob Rees Mogg is already unhappy about it, as this article mentions:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/uk-brexit-team-is-walking-a-tightrope-to-reach-first-phase-deal   

According to the article, "This brought instant spluttering from Conservative backbenchers, with Jacob Rees-Mogg demanding "indelible red lines" on the principle of escaping Brussels regulation, not cleaving closer to it."

So May has to decide: does she confront the Brexit fanatics with the reality that their hard Brexit is an undeliverable fantasy, or does she cave in to them and make the ruinous prospect of crashing out with no deal that much more likely?

Of course, if Davis means that regulatory alignment will only apply to a few specific areas necessary to sort out the NI problem then presumably there will be a great many areas of regulation in which we are not aligned with the EU. That would please Rees Mogg and co, but it just takes us back to the problem mentioned earlier: why would the EU let the UK use an open border in Ireland as a back door into the single market and customs union as a way of avoiding EU duties and regulatory checks?

However reluctant she may be to acknowledge it, May is going to have to jump one way or the other, and the choice depends on whether she puts country or party first. If the former, she'll tell the Brexit headbangers on her backbenches (and cabinet) to sod off and try to negotiate something that at least mitigates the worst of the damage. If the latter, she'll cave in to said headbangers, and then try to pin the blame for the ensuing chaos on the EU in the hope that the tactic of blaming dastardly Johnny Foreigner does the trick. You know the drill, "standing up for Britain" against an "unreasonable and intransigent EU", that kind of thing. The likes of the Mail and the Express would love it.

kishnevi

The Brexiteers do have a point: regulatory alignment seems to be the worst of all worlds: to keep all the negatives of EU membership but not have the benefits. Especially if much of the impulse stems from the belief that Brussels overregulates, it means the whole exercise was pointless or worse....

Spineur

David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!


vandermolen

Quote from: Spineur on December 06, 2017, 03:53:49 AM
David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html

The 58 sectorial reports of the UK government never existed !!!  God, is this a dream ?  more like a nightmare !!

It gets more and more shambolic.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

nodogen

When I was a lad the tories called themselves the natural party of government. Ho ho.

Every large organisation in Britain will have carried out an assessment of what Brexit may mean for them. But not the government apparently...

Davis is either lying now or was lying before. If May wasn't so weak she'd sack him. Bercow will soon be confirming Davis is in contempt of parliament.

Jeez, I'm living in a banana republic moving rapidly towards the status of a failed state.