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Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

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Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Turbot nouveaux on December 08, 2017, 02:31:54 AM

Careful now - you're 'Talking Britain Down'TM again here. When it all goes wrong we'll know who to blame.  ::)

You're quite right. I repent of my sinful ways, and undertake to purge my mind of these base heretical thoughts by performing a daily ritual of self-flagellation while praying fervently before an icon of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Que

Expats are not happy....

EU nationals can stay in the UK, but only after under certain conditions and restrictions.
And the protection of their rights falls under the jurisdiction of the EU Court of Justice for only 8 years.

I can already tell you now that the European Parliament is not going to accept this, and that the EU negotiators very well know this.....  ::)

Both EU and UK expats will become "land locked" - they will loose their rights of residence after more than 5 years of absence.
And of course UK can't resettle elsewhere in the EU freely as before.

The Tories tell us the rights of EU citizens are now secure. It's a lie

British citizens living in EU say Theresa May has 'sold them down the river' for deal




On the other hand anybody born in Northern Ireland is entitled to Irish citizenship and can therefore retain or acquire full EU citizenship.

Brexit: Northern Irish will be able to remain EU citizens under deal.Two sides agreed the passport deal would continue after Brexit

Q



Spineur

I have read the complains but find them overblown.  EU citizens living in the UK will still be able to relocate their families.  Eventually UK common law will apply to them.  I find this quite normal as it is the country they live in.  As far as the UK citizens in the EU the issue is wether they will keep the free mobility within the 27 member states.   At this point this right isnt clearly spelled out.  But after all, they can apply for EU citizenship if they want to.

The Irish part is on the other hand quite foggy at this stage and everybody is reading what they want.  At this point nothing is settled and depending on how the future talks evolve the irish deal will evolve.

André

Quote from: Spineur on December 08, 2017, 03:37:43 AM
According to Le Monde, Theresa May did make a lot of concessions.  The reaction of the hard-core brexiters could be very negative.  The agreement on Northern Island is described as "constructive ambiguity".  The problem is postponed to the "greek calendars", which may indeed serve the EU purposes in the end.


reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).

Spineur

Quote from: André on December 09, 2017, 04:49:29 AM

reporter aux calendes greques does not have a direct english equivalent. But the context you put it in makes it clear, though. I had to look up for the etymology of calendes, and found out it's not really clear cut (etruscan? Latin?).
Wiki says Etruscan, and the latin spelling Kalendae with a K seems to support this root.  French has fewer words than english but uses lots of expressions, which are difficult to translate, like this one.

For the Irish and probably also the British, this article

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1209/926089-brexit-negotiations/

recounts the final turns of events in the UK-EU negotiations around the northern island issue.


Jo498

it was already a Latin saying "ad Kalendas Graecas" meaning in the indefinite future or often "never" because the Kalendae (first day of the month, the more famous Ides (of March) were in the middle) was only a feature of the Roman calendar, not of the Greek.
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".
Tout le malheur des hommes vient d'une seule chose, qui est de ne savoir pas demeurer en repos, dans une chambre.
- Blaise Pascal

Florestan

Quote from: Jo498 on December 09, 2017, 08:08:13 AM
In German we say (somewhat old-fashioned) "am Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag" with a made-up Saint's day ("Saint Never's Day"), unless we are old-fashioned and really well-educated, than it's "ad Kalendas Graecas".

In Romanian it's either "la calendele greceşti" (literal translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas"), or --- and this is far more frequently used --- "la Paştele cailor" (literal English translation: "on the Easter Day of the horses").
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Jo498

Interestingly, I never encountered a German translation of "ad Kalendas Graecas". The few people (typically Latin teachers and the like) who would use the expression at all would use the Latin. I guess there are a few more sayings, like "when Christmas and Easter fall on the same day" or sth. like that.
Tout le malheur des hommes vient d'une seule chose, qui est de ne savoir pas demeurer en repos, dans une chambre.
- Blaise Pascal

North Star

"Everything has beauty, but not everyone sees it." - Confucius

My photographs on Flickr

Que

Now the first skirmishes are behind us, everybody is looking ahead... and concerns seem to be all around.

Global powers lobby to stop special Brexit deal for UK

I believe the appropriate term is a British invention: "fair play"....

But not to worry - my bets are on a transition deal that keeps the UK witin the customs union and the internal market, and will turn out to last indefinitely.... 8)

Q

Gurn Blanston

Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)
Visit my Haydn blog: HaydnSeek

Haydn: that genius of vulgar music who induces an inordinate thirst for beer - Mily Balakirev (1860)

Spineur

#331
I am not brit, but sort of agree with you.
In fact many people, including myself saw the northern ireland settlement as a temporary one - kicking the can down the road (the proper translation of the greek Kalendae reference) but it may be the mother of all concessions: the only way to put it into effect is to keep the UK in the custom union with free movement of people.
EU officials describe the NI settlement as creative ambiguity as it is a mean to reach their long term goal which boils down to your matter of fact summary.

nodogen

Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 01:59:14 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion


8)

Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.

Mr. Minnow

#333
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 01:59:14 PM
Well, to get back to speaking plain English, I read this pithy little summary today. Agree or disagree, Brits?

Brexit negotiations, to date:
• Same regulations
• Same open borders
• Same European courts
• Same single market
• Same payments to EU

But:
• Lost all say in EU rules
• Squandered 1000's of jobs
• Knocked 18% off the pound
• Risked the Union
• Spent £50 billion

Gotta say, I don't see where you could be worse off even if Tr**p was running it. Oh, wait: maybe you would be in a nuclear standoff with Germany & France, hadn't thought about that...  so then, win::win!

8)

That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.

Gurn Blanston

Quote from: Mr. Minnow on December 09, 2017, 03:30:39 PM
That seems to be pretty much where we are. The Brexiteers may say that leaving the single market and customs union means we can strike our own trade deals with other countries, but I'm not sure how that works, given the commitment to remain aligned with the single market and customs union regulations. To take just one example which has had a fair bit of media attention on this side of the pond: US regulations allow the sale of chlorinated chicken, which is banned in the EU. If we're committed to sticking closely to EU rules, does the fact that we would be technically outside the customs union and single market mean we could sign a trade deal with the US which includes allowing chlorinated chicken in the UK (it would be extremely politically difficult to sell this idea to the UK public, but leave that aside for now)? Or does our commitment to stay closely aligned to EU rules rule that out? That's just one relatively trivial example of course; there will no doubt be countless others.

Even if we could sign such a deal, I believe that Barnier's brief for phase 2 includes securing a commitment from the UK to "a level playing field" - in other words, that after Brexit the UK government won't try to turn us into a deregulatory nirvana. This is the "Singapore-on Sea" fantasy so beloved of the most ideologically fanatical Brexiteers. Without the UK government giving that commitment the chances of us getting any sort of deal with the EU are almost certainly zero, but if we assure the EU that we won't do that, presumably that would place quite considerable restrictions on the possible terms of any future bilateral deals we might make. Since the Brexit ultras' wet dream is of "buccaneering, free-trading Britain", that would render Brexit largely pointless as far as they're concerned.

One of the really extraordinary things about this embarrassing fiasco is that the Brexiteers didn't bother to work any of these problems out before the referendum. They've been campaigning for the UK to leave the EU for years, yet they had absolutely no plan whatsoever for what to do if they won the referendum, and boy has that showed over the 18 months since then. All we've heard are jaw-droppingly complacent assurances that we can leave the EU but still have the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Why? Because "they need us more than we need them", so when push comes to shove they'll back down and give us what we want. The fact that the UK government has had to pretty much capitulate on all three of the phase 1 issues is proof of how utterly delusional those assurances always were. The article linked to above by Que says that other non-EU countries are already lobbying the EU not to give us a better deal than they get, otherwise they'll want the same. Again, this is the sort of problem which the Brexiteers could and should have anticipated, but as with everything else, they failed to do so. It's ironic that the issue that seems to be making a hard Brexit vastly more difficult for them to achieve is Ireland - an issue which barely got a mention during the referendum campaign, presumably because it's an issue that the Brexiteers don't really care about.

Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

Quote from: nodogen on December 09, 2017, 03:03:57 PM
Well, it's not as pithy as I'd put it.

To be sure. Nor I, in your place.

8)
Visit my Haydn blog: HaydnSeek

Haydn: that genius of vulgar music who induces an inordinate thirst for beer - Mily Balakirev (1860)

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 09, 2017, 04:21:20 PM
Thanks for that. It pretty well encapsulates the inferences I've drawn from my Twitter followers' tweets (about half of my 500+ followers are Brits, for some reason!). I feel badly for them, most are quite depressed over it, but as you are well-aware, we have our own tub of shit to deal with. :-\

As horrific as Trump is though, at least you get a chance to vote him out in 2020, assuming he makes it that far. Unfortunately for us, Brexit is the result of a referendum, which means the vote has been sanctified as "the will of the people", even though it showed the country pretty much split down the middle. And those on the leave side who so loudly demanded for years that "the people must have their say" are remarkably unenthusiastic about having a referendum on the terms of the eventual deal, when we know what that is. "The people must have their say, once" would apparently be more accurate. Trying to reverse this shitshow really is going to be horribly difficult, and even if it happens, god alone knows what damage will have been done by then.

It would certainly be very interesting to know to what extent, if at all, it is possible to have a number of trade deals with different countries/trading blocs if those deals include regulations that clash with each other. I don't know the answer to that, but I'm hoping there are pretty substantial limits on how much of a clash there can be. If that's the case, agreeing to regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union would seem to make a hard Brexit almost impossible. Here's hoping....

Que

#336
Remainers have an important ally in the European Union: Ireland.

it is for economical as well as political reasons of paramount interest to Ireland that the UK stays in the customs union and the internal market, and it will do anything to prevent a hard Brexit. Sofar Ireland seems to wield a lot of influence during the negotiations.

May has stated she is seeking a short transitional stage of 2 years in which the UK retains access to the internal market, but is not in it. Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

First reality check will be that a trade deal with the EU cannot be negotiated witin 2 years (or a comprehensive deal  with any other country, for that matter).
To prevent another cliff edge, the transition has to be longer. Under those conditions only a continued participation of the customs union and the internal market with continued contributions - without a rebate - would be acceptable to the EU.

The alternative would be the short transition period desired by the UK, followed by a hard Brexit.
That would at least soften the economic shock and give more time to prepare....

But the so called "third fase" - the actual trade deal with the EU - is not going to materialise before the exit date....

Q

nodogen

Quote from: Que on December 10, 2017, 12:53:30 AM

Since the UK no longer wants to accept the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, wants to end free movement of people and want to start negotiating bilateral trade agreements with third countries.

Q

I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤

Que

#338
Quote from: nodogen on December 10, 2017, 01:42:52 AM
I imagine you meant "third world countries" 😤

"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)

nodogen

Quote from: Que on December 10, 2017, 02:02:33 AM
"We could say, if it's good enough in India, it's good enough for here."

MP Rees-Mogg on future environmental regulations in the UK..... :laugh:

Q


PS Of course, apart from being bizarre, it's actually extremely sad...  ::)

Just stop it now, I'm trying to have a nice day.

Anyway Mogg will be able to have cheaper servants running round his mansion. 😡