Brexit

[Mr. Minnow]

Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.

[nodogen]

Apparently some of the Brexiteers are furious with the rebels. Nadine Dorries has said they should be deselected. It's a good job the Brexiteers themselves don't have track records of repeated rebellion against their own government when they were pushing their anti-EU agenda, or they might be open to accusations of hypocrisy.

Shhhh. The Will of The People is more important than hypocrisy.

Wasn't it lovely watching them slagging each other off on the news tonight. 😁

[Turbot nouveaux]

The more the members of this odious government fight and fall out with each other, the happier I'll be, and the sooner we'll be rid of them.

[Mr. Minnow]

Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.

[nodogen]

Having already given us the infamous "Enemies of the People" and "Crush the Saboteurs" headlines, the Daily Mail is back in Der Sturmer mode:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/14/proud-tory-brexit-rebels-parliament-mutineers

Who would ever guess that this is the same paper that once cheered on Mosley's Blackshirts? Still, I'm sure they took an equally dim view of the Brexiteers when they were rebelling over Europe, because there's no way the Mail would ever be hypocritical. Just wouldn't happen.

Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

[Mr. Minnow]

Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

Perhaps it should be prosecuted under terrorism laws for radicalising its readers:

https://twitter.com/DMReporter/status/939428837598916608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fsoft-brexit-fallout-thread.418898%2Fpage-530

[Mr. Minnow]

Clearly I hope it does not happen, but I genuinely fear the mail may prompt a violent response, if not now but eventually. Power without responsibility. And of course, a causal link could never be established. Surely we don't want another Jo Cox tragedy?

I don't know what the solution to the mail's defence of "freedom of speech" is but an attempt at addressing it is needed. To be blunt, those that might be able to do something about it are those most likely to be a target of such hatred.

And predictably enough....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/14/dominic-grieve-says-he-has-had-death-threats-after-brexit-rebellion

Soubry also had death threats after the Telegraph's recent "mutineers" headline.

Of course, if there is another Jo Cox tragedy their defence will be similar to what Trump says when a mass killing happens and it turns out the shooter is white rather than brown: mental illness issue, no wider significance, mustn't politicise this tragedy, etc..

[Que]

Phase 2.. or should I say Act 2 of this tragicomedy...? 

The transition phase is for the EU about retaining the status quo on the customs union and the internal market - which means full regulatory conformity, full competence of the Court of Justice. Basically the Norway scenario for a limited period of time.....

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42367532

My prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process.... 

On the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

Q

PS The doors open to Phase 2:

[Que]

Funny: an imperialist abhorring the prospect of becoming a colony......

Brexit: UK must not be EU 'colony' after Brexit

I guess empires are only a good idea if you have the upper hand......

Q

[nodogen]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...

[Mr. Minnow]

My prediction is that the UK govt is going to suck it up, in the prospect of a trade deal (phase 3)

But the negotiations on that trade deal will either drag on for years to come or even falter all together....

Depending on political developments in the UK, this will lead to either an extension or indefinite continuation of the status quo of the transition phase or to a hard Brexit.

In any case, I am afraid that it is going to be a slow, torturous and humiliating process.... 

They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed. At that point I'd expect the opposition parties and the Tory remainers to really kick up a stink, if they haven't started doing so already. The Brexiteers' narrative has already shifted from "Brexit will take us to the sunlit uplands" to "it's worth it no matter the cost". They can't be allowed to get away with that. 

On the upside: as long as the economic status quo is continued, the Irish and Scottish issues will be kept at bay. Sturgeon will have insufficient momentum for an independence referendum as long as there is no clarity on the endgame.

But when we know the outcome it may well give the SNP momentum for a referendum. If we get a deal it will be a lot worse than what we currently have, and no deal would be a disaster. Either outcome might well make a lot of Scots wonder if it's worth being chained to a UK committing an absurd act of national self-harm, especially if the outcome is no deal. Faced with a post-Brexit UK shaped by the hard right of the Tory party, I couldn't blame them if they decided they wanted out of the UK.   

[Mr. Minnow]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/brexit-row-leaves-voters-thinking-tories-are-more-divided-than-labour

What catches my eye is stats such:

22% said their view of May was more positive than at the start of the year

30% approve of May's handling of Brexit


Presumably these are the Daily Mail readers...

Probably due to the fact that we're moving on to phase 2. A lot of leave voters seem to just want Brexit no matter what, so they're willing to overlook the fact that the government had to capitulate on all three phase 1 issues. If they've even noticed that that's what happened.

Did you see Thursday's Question Time? It was from Barnsley, a hugely pro-Brexit area. The first question was about rebel MPs trying to stop Brexit, the jeering from the audience at one of those rebels (Nicky Morgan) started almost immediately, and it was clear that the rhetoric in the right wing press - saboteurs, mutineers, etc. - had been taken on board. They weren't interested in actual arguments, they just wanted Brexit, come what may. It didn't help that one of the panellists was that fatuous waste of oxygen Isabel Oakeshott, a Daily Mail "journalist" who kept repeating the phrase "will of the people" at every available opportunity. It was noticeable that when Robert Winston, a well respected expert in his field, pointed out the consequences of leaving EURATOM, it all went rather quiet. No-one in the leave campaign told them about that, and Winston can hardly be dismissed as an agent of Project Fear.

[Spineur]

From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html

[Que]

They'll probably suck it up because they have no practical alternative, however much Rees Mogg and co claim otherwise. They'll say it will be worth it because of the fantastic trade deal the EU is just dying to offer us. The shit will hit the fan when it starts to become clear that that isn't going to happen. We'll get two options: Norway, which the hard Brexiteers will reject out of hand; or Canada, which they might accept. But a Canada-type deal will be a lot worse than what we currently have and will therefore be very economically damaging - there's no way we'll get the "Canada plus plus plus" deal Davis wants. That's when the Brexiteers' claims that we can leave but still have the benefits of membership will be exposed.

Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting on Labour's Brexit position:

[....] our language may be different, but we're actually in the same position as the Tories, which is to say we'll get out of the single market but we want a close trading relationship with Europe. Your risk is that, at a certain point, you get exposed as having the same technical problem that the Tories have, which is: here's the Canada option, here's the Norway option, and every time you move towards Norwayyou'll be accepting the rules of the EU, but you've lost your say in it, and every time you move towards the Canada option you're going to be doing economic damage. That's the essential dilemma of the Tories, which I think will be exposed over time, and Labour's got that problem, too."

[Mr. Minnow]

Quite right. This is how Tony Blair (of all people...) described it, commenting on Labour's Brexit position:

I think Labour will shift its position once it becomes clear to leave voters that they aren't going to get the "have our cake and eat it" Brexit they were promised. Labour is much less divided than the Tories and would be able to live with staying in the customs union and single market quite easily; the Tories couldn't (the Tory remainers probably could, but not the hard Brexit headbangers).

The problem is that so far it hasn't dawned on many leave voters that they're not going to get what they expected, and as episodes of Question Time from Brexit-voting areas make all too clear, they're so hell bent on Brexit that they're not willing - yet - to listen to anyone on the other side of the argument. I know Blair is arguing that Corbyn should try to change their views rather than waiting for them to change, but the problem with that is that if he tries to do so when they're not willing to listen, they'll dismiss what he has to say and probably abandon Labour. If he shifts position at the point when they're beginning to have a change of heart anyway he's much more likely to get a fair hearing. I know this is far from ideal, but the trouble is Brexit has become a viscerally emotional issue, so rational arguments about economic damage and the consequent damage to public services are dismissed as scaremongering/sour grapes from "Remoaners" who should just suck it up because they lost/attempts to thwart "the will of the people", etc.. It's infuriating, because they're going to drag the rest of us off the cliff with them, but until they realise they've been had, it's hard to see what Corbyn or anyone else can do.

[Mr. Minnow]

From Brexit to Bregrets... New referendum ?

"Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html

Interesting, but it's only one poll. We'll have to wait for further polls over the next few months to see if this one is just an outlier, or if it's indicative of a more substantial trend against leaving than we've seen so far. I hope it's the latter, but the figures would probably have to be about 60-40 on a consistent basis for a period of some months in order for a second referendum to become a serious possibility.

[Spineur]

This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable. 

[Mr. Minnow]

This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

What's so damning about that slide is the clarity compared to the fog of contradictory nonsense we're hearing from the UK government - oh yes, and the fact that the slide demonstrates that a deal which isn't much better than CETA is the logical result of other options being closed off by our own government's red lines.

Meanwhile....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/david-davis-to-warn-european-commission-it-cannot-cherrypick-brexit-trade-deal-sectors

Yes, that's Davis warning the EU it can't cherry pick. Well, he did say that he doesn't need to be clever to do his job, and this appears to be an attempt to demonstrate that. Even the photo above the article makes it look as though he's thinking "oh shit, did I really just say that?"

[Que]

This is one of Barnier slide last week.  Lots of  steps to climb back up - all probably involving further concessions -  My guess is the UK will reach the swiss level.  Anything below would be insulting and from the EU interests undesirable.

I doubt if the UK is going to get the Swiss deal, which is actually over a 100 bilateral agreements accumulated over many years.

A Swiss type of arrangement will still cross some of the UK government's "red lines". The Swiss, for instance, pay a yearly contribution into EU funds.

Also, following a rejection by referendum by the Swiss people  (those holy pebliscites..... ) of becoming part of the internal market, the EU has been very generous to the Swiss - a bit too generous is the current general feeling.... But that doesn't hurt so much, since the Swiss have a relatively small economy.

Any such generosity towards the Brits would create unfair competition and cause serious distortions of the internal market. It's not going to happen...

The deal with Japan, is according to the EU the new model it will aim for....
Meanwhile the UK govt has decided, after long and hard deliberations, that it wants a "bespoke deal".... in other words: a deal where you have your cake and eat it. ... 

Q

[Que]

I'm afraid that this Brexit thread is going to be pretty boring for some time to come.....

For the so called "transition phase" (phase 2) it is clear that from the side of the EU there is only one offer on the table: a continued membership of the customs union and participation in the internal market untill end of 2020, which is also the end of the current EU budget.

Such an arrangement will effectively delay all economic consequences (well, most...) of Brexit till 2021....
Meanwhile negotiations will be started on a final trade deal.

At present there will be just one bone of contention: Gibraltar
It will, as far as the EU is concerned, not be automatically covered by the transitional agreement.
My guess is that Spain will not be prepared to allow a continuation of Gibraltar's status a tax haven much longer.... Of course it could be decided to go all the way with Gibraltar and turn it into a modern pirate's nest. But in that case Gibraltar would be completely cut off from the EU.

Q