Brexit

[Spineur]

The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.

[Mr. Minnow]

The UK will change the color of the passports to blue after Brexit.  Next on the agenda is the color of the entrance carpet at 10 downing street.
This says it all.

And to think, I accused them of not having a plan. I feel such a fool.

[vandermolen]

https://youtu.be/TLpWX3ukQKQ

[Mr. Minnow]

[nodogen]

Ho ho ho


Sad thing is, of course, it's funny because it's the truth.

[Que]

Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

Funny: no cherrypicking.... by the EU.....


David Davis says EU cannot 'cherrypick' terms of free trade deal

Isn't cherrypicking (by both sides) not quintessential of a "bespoke trade deal" that the UK govt so desires?

Q

The issue of the Irish border was fudged in the phase 1 talks by means of an agreement to stay in regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union - but the UK government said that this alignment will apply to certain specific areas directly relevant to cross-border trade in Ireland. That implies that there will be a significant number of other areas in which we don't commit to stay in alignment. Sounds rather like cherrypicking to me. So if Davis continues to insist on economic cooperation across the board, the EU will simply say: fine, you want cooperation across the board, stay in regulatory alignment across the board. At which point either the UK refuses, or agrees. If the former, it's a pretty hard Brexit with all the damage that entails. If the latter, the Brexit ultras will explode with rage. These decisions will have to be made in 2018: they can't carry on fudging them, and whichever way May jumps, one wing of her party will be furious.

By the way, you know how the Brexiteers are insisting that Brexit means we have to leave the single market, and that a Norway-type deal would be unacceptable because we'd still effectively be in the EU? Well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=88&v=0xGt3QmRSZY

[Que]

Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers 'make no sense'

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay within the internal market... 

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q

[vandermolen]

I enjoyed the 'News Item' at the end of Paddington 2 which stated that Mrs Brown had indeed managed to swim the Channel between Enland and France but had to swim back again as she had forgotten her passport.

[nodogen]

Hammond and Davis: Post-Brexit trade barriers 'make no sense'

Newsflash: if you don't want any trade barriers, you'd better stay witin the internal market... 

It seems that in the UK govt Brexit is still revolving around reconciling the irreconcilable...

Q

Let me put it simply:

I want a divorce, but afterwards I still want to be able to shag you.

[Spineur]

So amusing !

Nigel Farage says "just maybe I'm reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum on EU membership"

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/

[Mr. Minnow]

Boris Johnson has finally admitted that the £350million figure on the bus was bollocks. Well, sort of:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/leave-campaigns-350m-claim-was-too-low-says-boris-johnson

[Que]

The UK rejection of the "Norway model" while attempting to cherrypick a deal with the EU that is as adventageous, doesn't go down well with Norway....

May faces tougher transition stance from EU amid Norway pressure

And I expect Norway to pressure the EU to drive a hard deal with the UK in fisheries as well...

So what do we deduce from this?

1. The UK has few friends in negotiating the trade deal with the EU.

2. It is impossible for the EU to give the UK a better deal than other trading partners without blowing up existing trade deals....

Q

[Marc]

So amusing !

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-11/nigel-farage-maybe-we-should-have-a-second-eu-referendum/

"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.

[Que]

"The percentage that would vote to leave next time would be very much bigger than it was last time round."

I think he's spot on. Referenda on topics like these are ruled and decided by emotions and sentiments, not on common sense and arguments. We've seen that with the 'first' referendum, and with referenda in other countries.
Bruxelles is giving the UK a very rough time, which will make even more Brits think "let's get rid of them eternally."
Farage, Johnson et al will feed these emotions with even more strength than in 2016.

The irony of it all is that Britain already has a superb "bespoke deal": outside the euro, outside the Schengen free movement zone, treaty opt-outs on social protection and criminal justice, and last but not least.... a huge budget rebate.

What Brexit does, is to throw that all away and scream murder over not getting anything better...

And now blaming the "tyrannical EU" for a "bad deal" is indeed becoming a self fulfilling prophesy, building up more resentment.
So, I think Marc might be right...if so, it's going to be ugly.... 

Q

[Que]

Britons in Netherlands take fight for their EU rights to Dutch court

I haven't had a close look at the legal arguments yet...

But my legal instincts tell me there might be a good possibility that the EU Court of Justice finds that UK nationals that are permanent residents in the (remainder of the) EU at the moment of Brexit, cannot be stripped of their EU citizenship.

Which makes sense, if one makes comparisons with the way citizenship/nationality issues are dealt with in other (regular) instances of secession.

This will of course will not help EU citizens in the UK or prevent the loss of EU citizenship for all other UK nationals.

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

For what it's worth, polls since the referendum have shown a small degree of movement towards Remain. Nothing major, but they suggest that Remain would win by a narrow margin if there were to be another referendum now.

The problem is that such a result is far from guaranteed, and a narrow Remain win wouldn't put the issue to bed, no more than a narrow Leave win has. And obviously if Leave won again, even if only narrowly, that would be it and we'd be really screwed. That said, if a second referendum does happen, it's highly unlikely to be a re-run of June 2016, i.e. choosing between leave or remain. It would probably be a choice between accepting whatever deal May gets - including no deal if that should happen - or rejecting that deal and staying in. At that point we would know the terms of exit, and there should then be a clear and obvious gulf between the deal we actually get, and the have our cake and eat it deal the Brexiteers assured us we'd get. That disconnect between the Brexiteers' rhetoric and what we get in reality is what will produce a Remain win, assuming anything can. There's no point in trying to change the minds of die-hard Brexiteer believers, but the less fanatical Leave voters who genuinely thought we'd get the sort of deal they were promised might be willing to reconsider.

Of course it's also possible that there are enough people of the "Brexit at any cost" persuasion to win another vote, in which case it's full steam ahead for Shit Creek. 

[Spineur]

So, Boris Johnson wants a bridge over the channel....
Do you think cars will be driving on the the left or right hand side of the road ? 

[Spineur]

The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

[Que]

The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious....

The leaked figures showing Britain would be worse off under all Brexit scenarios than it would have been had it stayed in the EU were just a work in progress. The numbers had been cobbled together by a bunch of untrustworthy idiots in his own department and he had personally sent them all back to their spreadsheets with strict instructions not to emerge until they came up with a scenario in which Brexit was going to be a huge success.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q