Brexit

[Que]

Mr Barnier noted that the EU has signed some  70 international trade access agreements with third countries, all of which will have to be asked to accept UK access to their markets on EU terms during the transition.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/uk-to-be-denied-eu-decision-making-role-during-brexit-transition-1.3372792

Oops.....

[Mr. Minnow]

According to the UK govt we shouldn't take their own forecasts very serious....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/well-rewrite-brexit-studies-until-we-get-the-right-result-says-mp

Q

They're going to release the analysis after all:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/government-will-not-oppose-labour-motion-on-leaked-brexit-papers

So to recap, the government's position on its impact assessments has gone as follows:

1. The assessments have been done and go into "excruciating detail".
2. Er.....no they don't. In fact they don't even exist.
3. No, as you were - it turns out we have done some sort of assessment after all! But we can't release it.
4. OK, we'll release it. But don't take any notice of the bit that says Brexit will be economically damaging, because economic forecasts are always wrong.
5. Unless they say Brexit will be great. You can trust those. Obviously. And if you don't, you're a saboteur remoaner talking the country down.

The EU must be pissing itself laughing.

This bit says it all:

The climbdown came as Downing Street said Phillip Lee, a junior justice minister, had been reprimanded for tweeting that if such studies showed the economy would be harmed then a change in policy should follow.

No such action has been taken against the Brexit minister Steve Baker, who said economic forecasts by government officials were "always wrong".


In tweets sent on Tuesday, a Downing Street source said: "Phillip Lee will recognise that the analysis was initial and probably not worth commenting on. He has been spoken to by the chief whip and reminded that it is best to air his view in private."

Asked whether the lack of action against Baker meant the minister's view was official government policy, the source said: "I will stick with what Steve Baker said."

It's beyond parody now.

[Que]

There seems to be a clear breach of trust between the EU and the UK govt.....

Brexit: EU to have power to punish UK at will during transition

Brussels could impose sanctions if it believes law infringed

Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making, I cannot blame the EU for making contingency plans.

Q

[Que]

British group wins right to take Brexit case to European court

I'm proud to see that the Dutch judiciary is still a beacon of light in a world that grows darker and darker by the day.....


"The essence of a democratic constitutional state is that the rights and interests of minorities are protected as much as possible"

Q

[Florestan]

Given the political situation in the UK, which at times look like a bloody reactionary revolution in the making

No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules! 

[Que]

No wonder you love the Baroque so much --- hyperbole rules! 

Actual blood will probably not flow... 

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q

[Christo]

Actual blood will probably not flow... 

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

Q

Agreed, and Que is absolutely right in monitoring this disaster closely.

[Florestan]

Actual blood will probably not flow... 

But I think the UK is heading for its biggest political and constitutional crisis since centuries.

IMO that will lead to the break up of its two party system. It might possibly lead to the break up of the UK itself...

I don't deny the possibility.

Sooner or later it probably happens to every country. Empires much more powerful and self-confident than the current UK have disappeared without trace.

Sic transit gloria mundi! 

[Turner]

"Bringing you live scenes from the UK's Brexit strategy"

https://twitter.com/Queen_Europe/status/961883716321619968



( ... well, at one level at least, this one is quite funny  )

[Que]

Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

Dark clouds are gathering over Brexit....

Brexit: into the grinding machine

Q

Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

Meanwhile we have a government paralysed by the ideological faultline in the Tory party, with the Brexit ultras and the hard right Tory press filling the resulting vacuum with bellicose rhetoric about "standing up to EU bullies" - that's the same "bullies" who we were assured would be falling over themselves to give us a have-our-cake-and-eat-it deal because "they need us more than we need them". As that's not happening it's obviously because they're intransigent bullies who want to punish us. Tomorrow's Telegraph has a story trying to sow division in the EU by claiming some states think Barnier is being too aggressive with Britain, which would seem to be a transparent attempt to set Barnier up as the bogeyman who will be blamed by the Brexiteers when we don't get the sort of deal they told us we'd get.

And that seems to be all the Brexiteers have left now. The day after the referendum it turned out that they had no Brexit plan whatsoever even though many of them had been arguing for the UK to leave the EU for years, which suggests many of them never thought they'd win and actually have to go through with it. The priority now seems to be to get the excuses in first so that whatever else happens, when the shit hits the fan, someone else gets the blame. The list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Unfortunately, if the likes of Question Time are any guide, there are still a lot of Leave voters who - so far at least - are willing to swallow the rhetoric blaming everyone else, especially "Brussels bullies", for Brexit turning into a farce. Presumably because it's much more comforting to blame someone else rather than admit that supporting something which looks as though it's going to be a train wreck might not have been such a good idea after all.

[Que]

Those clouds have been on the horizon for ages for anyone to see. The current spin is that we got a last-minute deal in phase one and the same will happen in phase two, which overlooks the fact that May "achieved" the phase one deal with a combination of (a) agreeing to what the EU wanted and (b) kicking the really intractable problems like the Irish border down the road. The trouble with that "strategy" is that you can only kick a problem down the road for so long and then you run out of road. That position is fast approaching.

I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

However, the UK will not be given a say in EU decision making after it leaves. The concession will likely to be on free movement/immigration .

An immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

The list of people and institutions who have been accused of trying to sabotage Brexit is already quite long. Those I can think of of the top of my head are:

The EU (obviously)
Remain voters (aka Remoaners/saboteurs etc.)
Remain-supporting MPs, especially those who voted for parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal
The Treasury
The Civil Service
Broadcasters, especially the BBC, for being "unpatriotic", i.e. asking awkward questions as they're supposed to
The Irish government
The SNP
Judges (aka enemies of the people for the heinous crime of doing their job)

Soon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

I think the Irish issue might be kicked down the road one more time...
The EU will try to compromise over a transitional regime to keep NI in the customs union and the internal market for now, and to avoid economic disruption and buy time for EU companies to prepare for Brexit (read: divert supply chains if necessary). It also keeps the current EU budget afloat.

I'm sure May will use up every last millimetre of that road but it's still going to run out, and soon. Then she'll have to decide which way to jump. She'll probably choose the "off the cliff" option.

An immediate hard Brexit will occur if the UK govt refuses to close a deal on transition without the desired trade deal  (which is never going to happen....)

The mood in the European capitals is that with this UK govt hard Brexit is quite likely. All efforts are focused on damage control and the transitional period.

When you look at the influence the likes of Rees Mogg and the European Research Group now wield, a hard Brexit does indeed look a very distinct possibility. I saw a recent comment online which said that Brexit may be disaster capitalism on a grand scale, as the chaos of falling off a cliff edge would create some lucrative opportunities for those bankrolling it. It's certainly plausible.

Soon the House of Lords can be added to that list...

Q

Indeed, I'm sure the list will get longer before too long. Not to worry though, apparently Boris Johnson will be giving a speech designed to appeal to remainers and unite the country, so there's that to look forward to. Stop laughing.

What is truly extraordinary is that crunch time is fast approaching and yet nothing has changed: Peter Bone, one of the most fanatical supporters of a hard Brexit, was interviewed just a few days ago and stated that of course the Irish government won't put up a hard border. And if they do, that's down to them. As if a hard border wasn't a direct consequence of a hard Brexit. I don't know if he's aware of that but is saying otherwise so he can carry on blaming Ireland and the EU should a hard border return, or if he genuinely believes what he's saying, in which case he has no idea what he's talking about. Either way, they're still spouting this crap now, just as they have been since the referendum. Similarly, leave voters on Question Time are still offering the same old pearls of wisdom: "we're a big economy so of course the EU will want to trade with us, we'll be fine", "just have some faith", etc.. This sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/951589776448262144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.redcafe.net%2Fthreads%2Fquestion-time-this-week.362105%2Fpage-62 
 

[Que]

Layoffs Arrive in Brexit Britain, and Auto Workers Are Up First (Bloomberg)

Not to worry, it's all just scaremongering.....

Q

[vandermolen]

The security issue will be interesting.

[Que]

The security issue will be interesting.

Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q

[vandermolen]

Indeed.....May wants a whole separate treaty on it, which is entirely possible.

The catch however is that the ECJ oversees the legal regime of these EU security arrangements.....

The billion pound question is therefore: is the UK going to submit itself to the jurisdiction of this evil foreign institution?

Q

Let's hope so!

[nodogen]

Jaw-dropper for this hour:

'Ideal' UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks         

[Mr. Minnow]

Jaw-dropper for this hour:

'Ideal' UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks         

Er....remoaning saboteurs......talking down the country......believe in Britain, etc.. This is clearly just more Project Fear.....

It also advocates tearing up the EU's "precautionary principle", under which traders have to prove something is safe before it is sold, rather than waiting for it to be proved unsafe.

....or maybe not. Jesus. Presumably the precautionary principle is an example of that "burdensome EU red tape which is holding us back".

This has only come out because it was accidentally published online. So letting leave voters know what Brexit really means clearly isn't on the agenda. Not until it's too late anyway. Still, er........taking back control!

[André]

The document was « not meant for public consumption ». Unpalatable indeed...