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Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

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Mr. Minnow

Quote from: nodogen on February 17, 2018, 05:00:55 AM
Jaw-dropper for this hour:

'Ideal' UK-US trade deal would see banned products sold in post-Brexit Britain, says accidentally released memo


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/17/revealed-us-uk-rightwing-thinktanks-talks-to-ditch-eu-safety-checks         

Another jaw-dropper: it seems the Brexit ultras are finally beginning to realise that the Good Friday Agreement/Irish border issue is likely to prove an insurmountable obstacle to their beloved hard Brexit. Good news, right? Well, unfortunately not. We can tell that the penny has begun to drop because some of the hardliners are beginning to talk down the GFA: Hannan says it has failed, Paterson has supported a column arguing that it has run its course, and Hoey is at it as well.

So, having realised that this issue throws an almighty spanner in the works of a hard Brexit, their response is to shrug their shoulders and dismiss the GFA. These people really are prepared to pay any price for a hard Brexit (though they won't be the ones paying) - including the trashing of the GFA with all the dangers that go with that. Incredible. I was about to say they can't sink any lower than this, but every time I think that, they prove me wrong. What an absolute shitshow this is.

Que

So, you vote to leave the EU to get rid of all these EU immigrants...

And before you know it, you need non-EU immigrants to replace them:


Leading Brexiter admits supply of labour from EU27 falling so 'we'll need to look further afield'


Well, that's just freaking hilarious.....  :D

Q

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Que on February 20, 2018, 01:43:47 PM
So, you vote to leave the EU to get rid of all these EU immigrants...

And before you know it, you need non-EU immigrants to replace them:


Leading Brexiter admits supply of labour from EU27 falling so 'we'll need to look further afield'


Well, that's just freaking hilarious.....  :D


Q


Even that will be spun as somehow the EU's fault.

kishnevi

Easy solution.

The UK will take in all the immigrants Trump wants to keep out. Perhaps a special program for all the Dreamers he'll deport.
The US meantime will take in the EU immigrants, since they're from Norway and similar countries.

Win win for everyone.

Turner

"Sir John Major calls on Theresa May to give all MPs and ministers a free vote in the Commons on her final Brexit deal. From a former Tory PM, that's a huge challenge to her authority."

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/968850126004477953

Que

#425
Brexit: 10 observations on the draft withdrawal agreement

The devils will emerge from the detail of the EU's document

David Allen Green (Financial Times)

The European Commission's draft withdrawal agreement for Brexit was published a few hours ago. The intended deal will address only the arrangements for withdrawal, including transition. The future trade, security and other relationships between the EU and the UK will be the subject of other intended agreements. It is too soon for anyone to have digested all the detail of the document, and indeed it may be weeks before some of the implications of the provisions become clear. That is the nature of complex legal instruments. But, at this stage, there are some observations to be made about the draft itself and how it may affect the wider process of the intended departure of Britain from the EU.

The first thing to say is that it is a welcome development that there is a draft in existence. We are almost one year on from the Article 50 notification and nearly two years on from the referendum. Much of the discussion on Brexit has been in general, even strident terms. Now there is something more substantial to focus on, and to argue about.

This leads to the second point. This draft has been produced by the EU, not Britain. As the UK is the departing member state one would have expected that the onus would be on the UK to produce the document. This, however, it may never have done. The EU has in effect stepped in and pushed the process forward. What the EU's fallback Brexit plan means for Northern Ireland Play video

So to the third thing: those Brexit supporters who object to the contents of this draft should ask why the UK did not bother to prepare its own version. In both diplomatic and commercial negotiations, the party that produces the first draft invariably starts with and keeps the advantage until the deal is done. For Britain not to have provided its own document is nearly as negligent as sending the Article 50 notification without preparation in the first place. Imagine if the UK had prepared its own draft withdrawal agreement before sending the notification.

The fourth point is that it is still a draft. It is only February and the agreement needs to be in final form by October so it can be approved and ratified in good time for the intended departure date of 29 March 2019. There will be devils in the detail and those devils will emerge. Small things and even large parts will need to be revised and amended. If the UK does not like bits of it, or if provisions can be improved, then there is sufficient time.

But the fifth thing is that this is not a draft out of nowhere. Most of it is merely the translation into formal legal prose of December's joint report. That key document, in turn, followed an array of published position papers and negotiation documents. There is a certain neatness in how the draft ties together the strands. It is almost as if the EU knew what it was doing and working towards all along.

Which leads to the sixth point: for all the political noise that met the publication of the draft on Wednesday, the EU can plausibly point back to the December report and so on and say that there is nothing new. It would seem that the intention of Brussels is for the draft not to contain any surprises. If anyone is shocked and outraged, that is no doubt because they have not being paying attention. The draft shows how well the EU has done with the withdrawal issues, other than Ireland. On first reading there is little here to which the EU had not gained assent by December. On citizenship and the financial settlement there is already apparent consensus on almost every point: this just records that.

Turning to the new document itself, the seventh observation is that it is clear and well drafted. There is a Euclidean-like geometry to the parts, titles and chapters which enables the reader to see how these inter-relate. There are detailed notes and references. On first reading, few passages seemed obscure. If there is disagreement, then at least one will be able to see what the dispute is about. The draft is far more a legal document than a diplomatic one.

The eighth point is to note how the Irish border issue has been addressed. The proposals are set out in a schedule as a "protocol". As with the December joint report, the provisions are there as a default backstop until and unless there is a more detailed agreement on the points. The EU is still open to the UK making its own positive proposals. In this draft, Brussels is in effect saying it has done its part. The simple logic of the Irish border after Brexit Key points from Brussels' text on Brexit treaty

The penultimate thing is that this is intended to be an agreement with bite. There are real and effective means of governance and enforcement, including a rather robust provision for "suspension of [the UK's] benefits". The document is not aspirational: once executed it is intended practically to bind the UK. This means Britain cannot agree to the provisions of the agreement without intending to fulfil them. That will concentrate minds wonderfully.

Finally, this draft agreement perhaps makes Brexit more certain than before. Of course, the law is one thing and politics is another. The unstable domestic politics and weak and incompetent British government make any accurate forecasts impossible. Nobody knows for certain what will happen with Brexit. But the EU shows little interest in extending the Article 50 period or encouraging the UK to revoke the notification. So unless the UK somehow fundamentally shifts its position on Brexit, or refuses to sign the withdrawal agreement before March 2019, the agreement will be a further illustration of "Brexit by timetable". And, all other things being equal, the UK will leave the EU on terms prescribed by the EU.

The new erato

Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on February 20, 2018, 05:56:56 PM

The US meantime will take in the EU immigrants, since they're from Norway and similar countries.

Holy crap. Do we look stupid?


Que

May has rejected the texts proposed by the EU and is expected to anounce further concrete insights on the UK's wishes:

Mrs May is expected to set out five tests to guide the UK in negotiations:

That any deal must respect the referendum result.
That any deal must not break down.
That any deal must protect jobs and security.
That any deal must be "consistent with the kind of country we want to be" - modern, outward-looking and tolerant.
That any agreement must bring the country together


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43250035

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q

Que

Quote from: Que on March 01, 2018, 04:32:57 PM

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q

On second thought.... a "soft" Brexit would meet four out of the five tests developed by May.... ::)

Except for bringing the country together.... though I doubt a majority of the population would oppose a soft Brexit.

Q

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Que on March 01, 2018, 04:32:57 PM
May has rejected the texts proposed by the EU and is expected to anounce further concrete insights on the UK's wishes:

Mrs May is expected to set out five tests to guide the UK in negotiations:

That any deal must respect the referendum result.
That any deal must not break down.
That any deal must protect jobs and security.
That any deal must be "consistent with the kind of country we want to be" - modern, outward-looking and tolerant.
That any agreement must bring the country together


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43250035

Another "pie in the sky"..... ::)

Q

That's very unfair. May has explained that we want a good deal that does nice and fluffy things, and not a bad deal that does mean and nasty things. You can't get much clearer than that.

Que

#431
Brexit is a gift that keeps on giving...... :D

Therese May stated that she wants the "broadest and deepest possible partnership" between the UK and EU.

Newsflash: such an arrangement does indeed exist, it is called membership of the European Union....

And as a "cherry on cake" - so to speak  ;) - she announced the desire for the continued (associative) membership of several EU agencies...
Like on medicine (EMA, that is moving from London to Amsterdam) chemicals and aviation. I suspect the same will apply to Euratom and that the list will grow much longer. The UK earlier expressed the desire to stay in Europol, for instance.

Q




Mr. Minnow

Another epistle from the 18th century:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border

Apparently it's Michel Barnier showing disregard for the Good Friday Agreement. Not the Brexiters. Definitely not. Oh no.

It's worth giving an example of what is often referred to as Rees Mogg's authenticity:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html

QuoteBetween 2011 and 2016, according to the TheyWorkForYou website, Mr Rees-Mogg voted 14 times against measures that would have given higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability.

In February 2012, for example, he voted against allowing cancer patients to be excused from the 365-day limit on receiving contributions-based Employment and Support Allowance.

What a guy. He would seem to be an authentic bastard, which to be fair is authenticity of a sort.

Que

Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 03, 2018, 03:34:18 PM
Another epistle from the 18th century:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-absurd-eu-plan-for-irish-border

Apparently it's Michel Barnier showing disregard for the Good Friday Agreement. Not the Brexiters. Definitely not. Oh no.

It's worth giving an example of what is often referred to as Rees Mogg's authenticity:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-moggmentum-run-for-tory-leader-leadership-election-contest-conservative-party-a7891196.html

What a guy. He would seem to be an authentic bastard, which to be fair is authenticity of a sort.

He decribes the future in 19th century political idiom: the UK as a future "vassal state" (after a soft Brexit) and Northern Ireland as a EU "protectorate".... Quite a grim picture!  :)

If he would come to power the reactionary revolution would go into the next phase.

Last Wednesday, a survey of Tory party members by the ConservativeHome website showed that Mr Rees-Mogg was now their second most popular choice to succeed Ms May as leader, after Brexit Secretary David Davis.

The Tories's taste in leadership is rather disconcerting..... ::)

Q

Mr. Minnow

#434
Quote from: Que on March 04, 2018, 12:29:48 AM
He decribes the future in 19th century political idiom: the UK as a future "vassal state" (after a soft Brexit) and Northern Ireland as a EU "protectorate".... Quite a grim picture!  :)

If he would come to power the reactionary revolution would go into the next phase.

Last Wednesday, a survey of Tory party members by the ConservativeHome website showed that Mr Rees-Mogg was now their second most popular choice to succeed Ms May as leader, after Brexit Secretary David Davis.

The Tories's taste in leadership is rather disconcerting..... ::)

Q

Unfortunately there are quite a few people in the UK who fall for this nonsense. If you can bear to do it, take a look at the comments on youtube under a Rees Mogg video - the ones posted by his witless fanboys with titles like "Rees Mogg absolutely DESTROYS x,y,z...". You'll see a graphic illustration of the extraordinary level of utter shite a British politician can get away with as long as he has a plummy accent and drops in the odd bit of Latin here and there. That's all it takes to convince these morons that Rees Mogg is a political colossus with a towering intellect.

Que

#435
An example of "cakeism":

May defends stance on post-Brexit financial services rules

May rejects the continuation of the current system of "passporting rights" - free access to the internal market through regulatory alignment - for the financial sector,  because she doesn't want the UK to be a "rule taker.

Fine, but then she still wants free access to the internal market  for the British financial sector....
So, the EU would have to allow British financial companies to compete freely on the EU market, while they don't have to abide by the same rules? ??? Does she think the EU is nuts? ::)

Q



Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Que on March 04, 2018, 09:46:53 PM
So, the EU would have to allow British financial companies to compete freely on the EU market, while they don't have to abide by the same rules? ??? Does she think the EU is nuts? ::)

Q

Remember, "they need us more than we need them".

Quote"If we were to accept'passporting' we'd just be a rule taker, we'd have to abide by the rules that were being set elsewhere," May said in the interview with the BBC.

If only there were a way to retain passporting rights while also having a say in the rules.

Que

Quote from: Mr. Minnow on March 05, 2018, 05:35:26 AM
Remember, "they need us more than we need them".

I think she's signing the death sentence of the London City. The UK has missed the opportunity to turn into an off shore tax and money laundering paradise by several years....considering the current global climb down on those practices. The UK would be a pariah in the international financial community.

QuoteIf only there were a way to retain passporting rights while also having a say in the rules.

Indeed, just imagine....  ;)

Throwing away the position of a global financial hotpot, it's sheer madness....  ???

Q

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Que on March 05, 2018, 10:00:06 AM
I think she's signing the death sentence of the London City. The UK has missed the opportunity to turn into an off shore tax and money laundering paradise by several years....considering the current global climb down on those practices. The UK would be a pariah in the international financial community.

As long as the Brexit ultras get their hard Brexit they're not bothered. They'll try to sell it as "global buccaneering Britain", though admittedly that might not work out too well once reality bites. Screeching headlines in the pro-Brexit rags won't do them much good when it turns out that gutting the NHS and welfare state as we know them is the price of the UK becoming Tax Haven-on-Thames. Though such is the utter venality of these people that as long as they've made a killing out of it, they probably won't care. Leave another party to try clearing up the mess and then accuse them of "betraying the will of the people".

QuoteIndeed, just imagine....  ;)

Throwing away the position of a global financial hotpot, it's sheer madness....  ???

Q

From the point of view of the good of the country, yes. But in fairness, how can they turn us into a tax haven if we're still in the EU when the EU's new tax evasion rules come into effect?  As (bad) luck would have it, we'll just have left by then. I've also seen suggestions that there are prominent Brexiteers with connections to hedge funds that aren't all that keen on EU scrutiny, which they view as another urgent reason for getting us out just in time. Not sure if that's true, but to say that it's plausible would be an understatement.

It's not all bad news though, there's been a breakthrough on the Irish border issue!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/05/post-brexit-irish-border-could-be-like-us-canada-says-may

QuoteLeo Varadkar told reporters on Monday evening that it was out of the question.
"I visited the Canada/US border back in August and saw physical infrastructure with customs posts, people in uniforms with arms and dogs and that is definitely not a solution that we could possibly entertain," he said.

This must be an example of the "creative thinking" Theresa May is always talking about. Applying the US-Canada border model to the Irish border. What a stroke of genius. What could possibly go wrong?

André

The US/Canada border is as hard as they get, believe me. It's easier to detect a smile on a boulder than on a US customs agent.

Zero $ exemption for goods brought in on same day crossing and very low $ exemption for overnight stays. Zero tolerance for ignoring the law or for white lies: you're flagged for life.

There's even a tv show about border crossings (both ways) and the trouble people get into when trying to bring in something on the other side. Add to that the hours of waiting time when reentering the country after a long weekend...

Have a good time sorting out your border issues !  ;D