Brexit

[Que]

The UK govt backed down and both parties fell back on the terms agreed in december, which according to Davies were ""only guidelines".

I think this is the first step towards BINO ("Brexit in name only"), in which Britain stays within the customs union and the internal market. Simply because it's economic suicide to anything otherwise.... A bonus is that BINO also resolves the Irish issue.

However, with the transition deal alone does not mean all dangers are successfully avoided (for now):

1. By not longer being a member of the Union, the UK will no longer be a party to treaties concluded between the EU with other countries. A good illustration is the "Open Skies Agreement" on avation between the US and the EU.

This will become a MAJOR problem, and it it will hurt the UK economy immediately.....

2. The issue of Gibraltar is still outstanding. Without an bilateral agreement between the UK and Spain, Gibraltar might be excluded from the transition deal and effectively "cut off" from the internal market. To me it seems clear what the Spanish conditions are: joint control of the airport, which lies partly on territory disputed by Spain, and the end of Gibraltar as a tax evasion haven.

Q

[Spineur]

You are way ahead of time Que.  Several member states do not accept the terms of the transitional agreement.

For them Barnier is a softee.

Their identity hasnt been disclosed yet, but you can make guesses...

[Que]

The funny side of Brexit.... 

Brexit: Leavers in uproar over 'national humiliation' as blue passports contract 'handed to Franco-Dutch firm

Anyway, it seems we're close to a transition deal.

Though whether it will ultimate apply to Gibraltar, remains to be seen......
I think the Spanish will drive a hard bargain. I've looked into to the territorial dispute - it appears that the land on which the airport has been built was taken into possession by the British during the Spanish civil war and is not covered by the treaty of Utrecht. Clever powerplay back in the day, but that doesn't make it legal....

As a military superpower Britain got away with it, but now the balance of power has shifted the British will be forced to make concessions.

Q

[Que]

Informative:

Brexit transition: three misunderstandings about the deal explained:

1.Transition isn't membership

2.Transition doesn't solve problems of a cliff edge

3.Transition not a model for stable future relations

[Spineur]

If you wonder what the expression Manger son chapeau means find out the 11 promises made by the brexiters which have been totally dropped

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/mar/28/11-brexit-promises-leavers-quietly-dropped

[DaveF]

Regarding the Irish border, there is a cluster of villages, all beginning Clon- (Clonooney, Clonagore, Cloniston) in a virtually detached portion of County Monaghan (Irish Republic), which are inaccessible except from Co. Fermanagh (Northern Ireland).  Since there don't appear to be any shops in any of these little places, one wonders whether the simplest shopping trip to the nearest town will involve passport checks at a hard border.  I think the problem facing the Irish border, which perhaps doesn't apply to those between other European nations, is that it wasn't drawn as a national border but as a series of British county ones, which themselves followed parish boundaries, with no thought of separating people living on either side.

[GioCar]

The countdown has started, exactly one year to go.

To our British friends: one year to rethink? I believe games are over already, but hope really is hard to die.

[Mr. Minnow]

The countdown has started, exactly one year to go.

To our British friends: one year to rethink? I believe games are over already, but hope really is hard to die.

I'm afraid a rethink looks unlikely. There has been a small shift in the polls toward remain, but not by anywhere near enough to make much difference. Tonight's Newsnight discussion showed the problem: when asked if a Norway-type deal would be a betrayal, one woman's reply was that it would be. When asked why, her answer was, "well, it's not patriotic, is it?". Literally. That was her "logic". This kind of comment is by no means untypical of leave voters in such discussions. "Just get on with it", "we'll be fine", "have some faith in Britain" are the standard comments that come up time and time again. When you hear this drivel repeated so often it does become increasingly difficult not to conclude that we're allowing ourselves to be driven off a cliff in order to appease the dumbest person in the room. The leavers in the discussion naturally didn't want a vote on the final deal, so it apparently doesn't matter how bad the deal is as long as we leave. It would have been interesting if they'd been asked if they'd want a vote if we end up with a Norway-type deal - after all, that sort of deal would be a betrayal. Apparently.

One recent poll found that a majority of Brits view leaving the EU as more important than keeping Northern Ireland in the UK, so if the Irish border problem isn't solved, well many Brits are prepared to leave NI up shit creek in the name of Brexit. Or, to put it another way, if the price of the UK  "regaining its independence" is breaking up the UK, well so be it. I'd say that's a clear indication that there's not much rethinking going on. Or indeed much thinking of any sort.

[Que]

Thats seems to be my impression as well. The UK is going to sleep walk out of the EU, with most people taking a "wait-and-see" attitude. And they will have to wait a little bit longer before the reality of Brexit will appear, because the transition agreement will take most of the edge of things till January 1st 2021. I do think he UK will accept a special economic status for NI as a "fall back position"  - in name only, just to sell it to Brexiteers the myth of a magical technical solution will be promoted as a viable option until it is too late..

After the transition there will be a rude awakening. I suspect there will be either a Norway deal or a hard Brexit, probably nothing in between.The EU will not be willing to extend the transition, as the Tories now already hope for....
UK domestic politics will also play a decisive role by that time.

Q

[Spineur]

Brexit and music.  Bleak prospects for the industry according to this article

http://www.howardgoodall.co.uk/articles-press-etc/brexit-and-music-theme-and-variations

[Jo498]

If Goodall has been in this business for 40 years, he must remember pre-Schengen times of the 1970s and 80s. I might be totally missing a point here, but as far as recall musicians and conductors did travel all over Europe for concertizing, conducting etc. even then. So either they put up with bureaucratic nightmares everytime or it was not all that bad.

[drogulus]

     Russia will keep attacking Britain unless Brexit meddling is handled

     Observing from the US I naturally wonder how the Putin-Brexit connection is viewed. The article in the link suggests a reluctance to see Russian attacks in a systematic way. Is that so?

[Mr. Minnow]

     Russia will keep attacking Britain unless Brexit meddling is handled

     Observing from the US I naturally wonder how the Putin-Brexit connection is viewed. The article in the link suggests a reluctance to see Russian attacks in a systematic way. Is that so?

There's a fair bit of cognitive dissonance going on where the whole Putin-Brexit connection is concerned. On the one hand, most Brits will readily agree with the proposition that Russia pumps out misinformation in order to meddle in other countries' affairs. I don't think there are many people on this side of the pond who have much trouble believing that the Russians interfered in the 2016 US election and in so doing may have secured Trump votes in vital states.

But with Brexit it's different, because if Leave voters were to admit that the same thing may have happened with the Brexit referendum campaign, they would have to acknowledge that they may be among the people who have been duped. It's one thing to laugh at those silly Americans for being fooled by Russian propaganda, but the idea that some of us Brits might have been taken in as well? An outrageous suggestion! The line that's generally been taken on the few occasions I've seen this discussed is that "no-one was fooled in to voting for Brexit", which does rather gloss over the fact that if the Russians did meddle in the Brexit campaign then there may well be people who did indeed vote for Brexit on the basis of misinformation, and could therefore be said to have been "fooled in to voting for Brexit".

Then you have to add in to this situation the role of the press, which in the UK is heavily dominated by the right. Most of these papers are rabidly pro-Brexit, so any attempt to question the referendum result on the basis of possible Russian meddling will immediately provoke howls of outrage at the "will of the people" being thwarted by "treacherous saboteurs" (and they'll still say that even if it turns out that the real saboteurs were actually the Russians). And all of this is before you get to the reasons outlined in the article which go a long way to explaining the unwillingness of many of our politicians to tackle Russian interference in a serious way.   

[Mr. Minnow]

A possible breakthrough on the Irish border?

https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241

This is just the sort of bold and innovative thinking which is sure to make Brexit a roaring success. 

[Que]

A possible breakthrough on the Irish border?

https://www.joe.ie/news/james-obrien-lbc-irish-people-microchipped-brexit-623241

This is just the sort of bold and innovative thinking which is sure to make Brexit a roaring success.

Hilarious. 

Word from Brussels is that the solutions the UK proposed involved either a lot of trust ("You don't need any checks, we'll take of it" How??) or expensive, advanced technology that might never work and a lot of red tape.

A no go, therefore. Either the UK is going to budge, or the Irish are going to sink any prospect of a transition deal.
And I think the Irish mean it, since they are seriously preparing for an immediate hard Brexit.... (As are the Dutch).

A way out of the situation comes from unexpected quarters. It seems that the majority of British MP's - and of the British public - is slowly shifting towards BINO (Brexit in name only)....

First step is the decision to remain in the customs union. Which frankly helps a bit but is not as fundamental as is suggested. The UK economy is not about goods, but about services. And for that you need the real prize: remaining in the internal market.... Which in due time, before the transition period is over, is what is going to happen IMO. Probably after Brexit itself, since it will probably topple May's government.

Of course in that case the whole NI issue will dissapear.

Q

[drogulus]

      Here is my dilemma on Brexit. International agreements on most subjects are good in themselves, but on questions of monetary sovereignty I go the other way.

      Brexit Fear Mongering Proving Wrong

      I see it that the geostrategic argument against Brexit is good but that the economic argument requires that the economy be deliberately recessed, that an extra step is required to make the bad outcome predicted a fact, engineering an outcome bad enough to (heh!) make it so.

[Que]

      Here is my dilemma on Brexit. International agreements on most subjects are good in themselves, but on questions of monetary sovereignty I go the other way.

Spoken like a true American! 

Well... not everybody has the greenback as their national currency..... 

Q

[Que]

While Westminster is submerging in a debate on whether to reamain in a customs union with the EU, the Irish send a final warning:

UK must accept it is decision time on Brexit - Hogan

"The EU must be satisfied the UK's invention will work or it is the backstop. The deadline is set for June. No decision, no Withdrawal Treaty; no Withdrawal Treaty, no transition."

Q

[drogulus]

Spoken like a true American! 

Well... not everybody has the greenback as their national currency..... 

Q

     I don't think it has to do with the greenback at all. It has to do with what the loss of monetary sovereignty does to countries that have lost it. There's still the danger of purely self imposed austerity but that's something a country can still defeat or reverse if it hasn't got itself into the clutches of international Austerions.

     I'm a horrible example of a True American as these things are judged. Both US parties are too austere for me. The term of art is "neoliberal".

[Que]

The destructive power of Brexit:

Brexit is breaking up Europe's €10 billion plan to launch a new constellation of satellites

The UK wants to stay in the project.

The question is as before: if you don't want to abide by commonly agreed rules - how? 

Q