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Brexit

Started by vandermolen, May 01, 2017, 10:14:35 PM

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Que

Quote from: drogulus on April 27, 2018, 08:52:59 AM
     I don't think it has to do with the greenback at all. It has to do with what the loss of monetary sovereignty does to countries that have lost it.

I see your point. But my point is that smaller countries or weak economies have effectively very limited monetary sovereignty anyway. Nevertheless, as it is at the moment, the euro was a mistake. But the only ones that sacrificed real monetary sovereignty were the Germans.

However, the whole issue is unrelated to Brexit, since the Brits were smart enough to keep their own currency...

Q


Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Que on April 30, 2018, 09:45:34 PM
More trouble for May:

Theresa May suffered another major defeat on Brexit as House of Lords voted to give the British parliament a say over the terms of a future UK-EU deal.

Peers voted by 335 to 244 for an amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill which would give MPs a "meaningful vote" on the deal May brings back from Brussels.The amendment gives parliament the power to decide what the government should do if May's final deal is rejected in the Commons.


The Lords are trying to make Brexit manageable again.... What are the Commons going to do?  ::)

Will May's government last till Brexit? (Probably not....)

Q

Guess what the "crunch" meeting on which customs option to go for produced? Yes, that's right. Another fudge. Not that it matters anyway: from the way it's been reported here, you'd think whichever one they decided on would be the one we'll get, but the EU has already made it clear that it regards both as unworkable anyway. So it's nearly two years since the referendum, less than a year until we leave - and the government still can't choose between two customs options which the other side has already rejected.

And yet, these cretins still have a narrow lead in the majority of polls. Brexit really does seem to override everything: we have a health service on its knees, an explosion in the number of people relying on food banks to avoid starvation, the normalisation of badly paid, insecure, dead-end jobs, especially those on zero hours contracts, the disaster of universal credit, and the Tories conducting the Brexit negotiations in a manner that makes the Keystone Cops look like a well-drilled unit.......and it seems none of this matters, as long as we leave the EU. It doesn't even seem to matter that the Brexiteers' promises are going up in smoke, or how bad a deal we appear to be heading for - as long as we leave. Barring a miracle, we seem to be well and truly screwed.

Que

Quote from: Mr. Minnow on May 03, 2018, 03:09:32 PM
....and it seems none of this matters, as long as we leave the EU. It doesn't even seem to matter that the Brexiteers' promises are going up in smoke, or how bad a deal we appear to be heading for - as long as we leave. Barring a miracle, we seem to be well and truly screwed.

I hope not!  :) Once the UK makes it into a transition deal, you'll be OK on Brexit because it will silently morph into a Brexit In Name Only (BINO)...with a continued customs union and participation of the internal market. I'm convinced that no viable alternative will materialize during the transition period.

The big risk now, is that a transition deal falls through because the UK doesn't accept the "backstop" arrangement for NI that the EU and Ireland want. The halfbaked customs scheme May is cooking up won't work. To avoid a hard border Northern Ireland will have the be a special status territory that is part of the EU customs union and is regulatory aligned in key economic areas.

Anyway, if I'm right in my predictions the NI issue will dissapear in due time and resolved by BINO....

Q

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: Que on May 04, 2018, 12:16:16 AM
I hope not!  :) Once the UK makes it into a transition deal, you'll be OK on Brexit because it will silently morph into a Brexit In Name Only (BINO)...with a continued customs union and participation of the internal market. I'm convinced that no viable alternative will materialize during the transition period.

The big risk now, is that a transition deal falls through because the UK doesn't accept the "backstop" arrangement for NI that the EU and Ireland want. The halfbaked customs scheme May is cooking up won't work. To avoid a hard border Northern Ireland will have the be a special status territory that is part of the EU customs union and is regulatory aligned in key economic areas.

Anyway, if I'm right in my predictions the NI issue will dissapear in due time and resolved by BINO....

Q

The scenario you describe is obviously possible, but it's not a foregone conclusion by any means. The results of yesterday's local elections show the remain/leave split in the country is still there, with the Tories' vote going way up in areas that voted most strongly to leave. That suggests that the staggering incompetence of the way they've handled the negotiations doesn't bother leave voters, who just want a hard Brexit come what may. For once, Rees Mogg may be right when he says that BINO would be electorally toxic for the Tories, since Remainers would still be unhappy as it would still be Brexit, while leave voters would view it as a betrayal. If the Tories think a hard Brexit is in their best interests then that's what they'll do, with the EU being blamed for its "intransigence". Never mind that such a course would be economic madness: in a contest between what's in the best interests of the Tory party and the best interests of the country the latter will come a distant second.

knight66

Mr Minnow could be writing my posts for me. I follow a lot of links via Twitter. As well as keeping up with it, it allows me a safety valve for my anger and contempt. That ire is not restricted to the Tory party. Labour is just as bad with its equivocating leader the secret BREXITeer. The secret only seems to operate for a large sector of Labour voters who seem to think the acquiesence on BREXIT is some kind of tactic that will wrongfoot the government at some vital juncture. The rest of us know perfectly well that Corbyn is anti-EU. The 48% voters against BREXIT have no viable party to vote for.

Our only hope is that with bad economic news daily, there will be a cross bench revolt and Labour together with rebels decide to vote down a deal if it looks uterly disasterous.

The turnout yesterday was only 33%. I am not so sure this is entirely due to a lack of interest. It may well be some Tory and Labour remain voters stayed at home rather than bring themselves to vote for some other party that would get nowhere. But I imagine that would only affect turnout rates a little. There is so much going wrong here, not just BREXIT, it should be a gift for any non brain-dead opposition.

I could go on, and on and on. But I will ask Mr Minnow to continue to speak for me, somewhat.

Mike
DavidW: Yeah Mike doesn't get angry, he gets even.
I wasted time: and time wasted me.

Mr. Minnow

#486
Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 07:47:08 AM
Mr Minnow could be writing my posts for me. I follow a lot of links via Twitter. As well as keeping up with it, it allows me a safety valve for my anger and contempt. That ire is not restricted to the Tory party. Labour is just as bad with its equivocating leader the secret BREXITeer. The secret only seems to operate for a large sector of Labour voters who seem to think the acquiesence on BREXIT is some kind of tactic that will wrongfoot the government at some vital juncture. The rest of us know perfectly well that Corbyn is anti-EU. The 48% voters against BREXIT have no viable party to vote for.

Our only hope is that with bad economic news daily, there will be a cross bench revolt and Labour together with rebels decide to vote down a deal if it looks uterly disasterous.

The turnout yesterday was only 33%. I am not so sure this is entirely due to a lack of interest. It may well be some Tory and Labour remain voters stayed at home rather than bring themselves to vote for some other party that would get nowhere. But I imagine that would only affect turnout rates a little. There is so much going wrong here, not just BREXIT, it should be a gift for any non brain-dead opposition.

I could go on, and on and on. But I will ask Mr Minnow to continue to speak for me, somewhat.

Mike

Hi Mike. At the risk of not continuing to speak for you to some extent, I do think Corbyn's stance on the EU has changed somewhat over the last 30 years, as I said somewhere on this thread a while back. He's clearly not its biggest fan, but I think he's well aware of the fact that EU membership is vastly preferable to a hard Brexit cast in the image of the hard right of the Tory party.

I agree that his current stance is not part of some great master strategy, but I do think he's waiting for leave voters to get to the point where they're ready to give a fair hearing to a soft Brexit, i.e. staying in both the CU/SM (and hopefully voting down whatever sack of shite the Maybot eventually comes back with). But as yesterday's local elections seem to show, most leave voters are just not willing to listen yet - not just to Corbyn, but anyone who doesn't say Brexit will lead to the magical sunlit uplands. The conduct of the negotiations has been utterly shambolic, the Brexiteers' promises are a distant memory, there's still no sign of a workable solution to the Irish border - and they still seem to want the Tories to drive us off the cliff. Mention the things I mentioned earlier - the state of the NHS, food banks, zero hours contracts etc., not to mention the ongoing abuse of the sick and disabled - and the usual response is a shrug of the shoulders and something which amounts to "yeah, but Brexit, innit".

I've had conversations with leave voters on these issues and it makes absolutely no difference if you point out the gaping holes in the arguments for Brexit. Here's how the last one went:

"We won't be paying money into the EU budget".

Well we might actually, but even if we're not, that "saving" will be dwarfed by the hit to trade with our biggest trading partner.

"We can tear up EU rules and sign new trade deals with other countries".

Except we'll have to follow EU rules if we want to trade with them post-Brexit, and any new trade deals will themselves mean signing up to a load more regulations, because that's what trade deals consist of.

"We can control EU immigration".

Well we can do that now - any EU citizen can be sent home after 3 months if they don't have a job or other means of support - but our government chooses not to. And since the likes of India and China will want less stringent immigration rules for their citizens as part of any future trade deals, overall immigration is unlikely to fall much, if at all. It might well even rise.

The bloke I was talking to had no counterarguments to any of this, so I asked him if he'd vote for Brexit again: "oh yeah, definitely". That's the mentality Corbyn is up against.

Corbyn has been dealt a really bloody awful hand - he's got to somehow hang on to younger and metropolitan Labour voters who voted remain, and voters in traditional Labour heartlands who voted leave in large numbers. As Brexit unravels it may be that these leave voters will have second thoughts, but the risk of making a move now to advocating SM membership is that he alienates a large chunk of Labour voters who then switch to the Tories - and as insane as that would be, some have already done it. Should that happen, the same "moderates" now pushing him to support SM membership would then slag him off for not appealing to traditional Labour voters. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

Don't get me wrong, I'm also frustrated that he hasn't gone further than supporting CU membership, but I can see why he hasn't. The whole thing is an utter shitshow and Corbyn has no good options. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe if he announced now that Labour would support staying in the SM perhaps their poll numbers would rise and the Tories would be on the ropes. Unfortunately I just can't see it at the moment. I hope the Tory Remainer rebels put down an amendment in the Commons committing us to the SM, because that really would be crunch time with sitting on the fence no longer an option. If that happened and Corbyn whipped his MPs to vote against it then that really would make me think twice. I hope he would support it though, because aside from Brexit his policy agenda is generally a pretty good one.

knight66

Many things over a number of years contributed to the BREXIT vote. One was the complete lack of campaigning and luke warm attitude of Corbyn. He whispered support and did not back it with action. Had he extended himself, we might not be here in this situation. For me that spoke strongly of his lack of integrity. He is acquiescing in the lie that the referendum was binding. He has, mostly, said he would refuse a second vote, despite there being a big majority of Labour voters who now would vote against BREXIT. His democratic credentials therefore seem deeply suspect to me. If he firmly changed his mind on BREXIT, I would again support Labour, even though in Scotland they seem increasingly like a bowling club for retirees and increasingly irrelevant.

To add to the woes of the country, which you listed, the Justice system is degraded to the point it is not really functioning. Only today there was a report that rapists have less than a 2% probability of being caught and sentenced. We also have had quiet amendments to the compensation rules.

You can be arrested and held in custody. If innocent you are now unlikely to get anything like full reimbursement of your costs. Nor can you any longer rely on getting compensation, unless....wait for it.....it would have been IMPOSSIBLE for you to have committed the crime of which you were found not guilty! That is the Tory Government at its very best.

Mike

DavidW: Yeah Mike doesn't get angry, he gets even.
I wasted time: and time wasted me.

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 12:50:10 PM
Many things over a number of years contributed to the BREXIT vote. One was the complete lack of campaigning and luke warm attitude of Corbyn. He whispered support and did not back it with action. Had he extended himself, we might not be here in this situation. For me that spoke strongly of his lack of integrity. He is acquiescing in the lie that the referendum was binding. He has, mostly, said he would refuse a second vote, despite there being a big majority of Labour voters who now would vote against BREXIT. His democratic credentials therefore seem deeply suspect to me.

I was also under the impression that Corbyn hadn't done a great deal during the Brexit referendum campaign until I saw an article listing the speeches he'd given and pro-Remain events he'd been at (can't find it now, this was a year or more back). Assuming the article was accurate, he actually did extend himself - but barely any of those events and speeches got much (or indeed any) coverage. You'd expect the Tory press to refuse him coverage, but even the broadcasters didn't bother for the most part. That said, maybe it's not so surprising when you look at how our national broadcaster has covered Labour under Corbyn. BBC News often resembles a branch of Tory central office these days.

It is indeed true that the referendum was technically advisory rather than legally binding. However, I don't think this is a viable way of opposing Brexit. If Corbyn said that the result should be ignored because it was only advisory he'd be committing political suicide. Support for Brexit among Labour voters would almost certainly soar and Labour's support would crash. Not even the "moderates" want to go down that road.

Supporting a second referendum would be a risk, though I agree it's one he might be on firm enough ground to take, since there is now evidence from polling that a fairly clear majority of the public supports a referendum on the terms of the final deal. Presumably that must include some leave voters, which should mitigate worries that such a shift in policy would provoke the usual "BREXIT SABOTAGE!!!!" screeching in the Tory press.   

QuoteIf he firmly changed his mind on BREXIT, I would again support Labour, even though in Scotland they seem increasingly like a bowling club for retirees and increasingly irrelevant.

Oh yes, I forgot about Scottish Labour - first Jim Murphy, then Kezia Dugdale, who told Labour voters they should vote Tory to keep the SNP out in places Labour couldn't win before buggering off to a vacuous "reality" TV show. Christ almighty, what a loss to the party she is.

QuoteTo add to the woes of the country, which you listed, the Justice system is degraded to the point it is not really functioning. Only today there was a report that rapists have less than a 2% probability of being caught and sentenced. We also have had quiet amendments to the compensation rules.

You can be arrested and held in custody. If innocent you are now unlikely to get anything like full reimbursement of your costs. Nor can you any longer rely on getting compensation, unless....wait for it.....it would have been IMPOSSIBLE for you to have committed the crime of which you were found not guilty! That is the Tory Government at its very best.

Mike

That seems to be yet another one of those things that's got lost as Brexit overrides everything. The absolute shit a government can get away with by stirring up nationalist sentiment is something to behold.

knight66

Yes, I agree with a lot of that, though Corbyn had opportunities to share cross-party platforms on the referendum, but did not take them up.

One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted. When I was in my 20s, in the 1970s I bought the Guardian. Eventually I got fed up with all the moaning in the letters, every day. I thought that if they reflected the readership, then all the constant complaining did not reflect me, so I dropped it for many years. However, I read it on line daily now. 

I used to be a complete news junkie, Today, The Westminster Hour, The Week in Westminster, Daily Politics, Question Time, Times and Sunday Times etc. I have dropped them all, and moved on-line. I follow US politics to distract from the gut-wrenching UK situation. We could do with a Washington Post equivalent over here.

The Guardian now is probably too comfortable, in being part of my own bubble, I read it a lot, so I go to Chanel 4 which although left leaning, does look at issues more in the round. The newspapers up here are not worth reading even for free. I am so disappointed in how soft the BBC Today programme has gone on the Government. They ought to have been savaging the idiotic ideas the Tory ministers come out with. Also, they could have run fact checks during the campaign and provided info on what we actually get from the EC. They just give Tories a pass and attack Labour behaviours, bypassing their policies. And UKIP has been given air time across the BBC well beyond their level of support......I think I had better go for a lie down.

By the way, I feel like I know quite a lot and quite a range of folk, but I only know two who voted BREXIT. And I have not seen them since the day of the result. My acquaintances must be narrower than I thought. I encounter plenty of folk who shock me on-line. The country is stuffed with bigotry, stuffed.

Mike

DavidW: Yeah Mike doesn't get angry, he gets even.
I wasted time: and time wasted me.

NikF

Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 10:23:13 PM


One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted.

I usually stay out of these threads, but in this instance I'm completely in agreement regarding the terrible change in the BBC. It's sunk to the level of a Murdoch tabloid. And it's almost shamelessly transparent about it.

"You overestimate my power of attraction," he told her. "No, I don't," she replied sharply, "and neither do you".

Mr. Minnow

#491
Quote from: knight66 on May 04, 2018, 10:23:13 PM
Yes, I agree with a lot of that, though Corbyn had opportunities to share cross-party platforms on the referendum, but did not take them up.

One of my largest  resentments around BREXIT is how the BBC has been behaving. I grew up loving the BBC and defendwed it when it was attacked. If it was not making politicians unhappy, it was not doing its job. I was happy when both sides constantly complained. It took me quite a while to believe the current bias, which so obviously shows in what it does not report as much as how it goes about reporting, disappointment, disillusion, gutted. When I was in my 20s, in the 1970s I bought the Guardian. Eventually I got fed up with all the moaning in the letters, every day. I thought that if they reflected the readership, then all the constant complaining did not reflect me, so I dropped it for many years. However, I read it on line daily now. 

I used to be a complete news junkie, Today, The Westminster Hour, The Week in Westminster, Daily Politics, Question Time, Times and Sunday Times etc. I have dropped them all, and moved on-line. I follow US politics to distract from the gut-wrenching UK situation. We could do with a Washington Post equivalent over here.

The Guardian now is probably too comfortable, in being part of my own bubble, I read it a lot, so I go to Chanel 4 which although left leaning, does look at issues more in the round. The newspapers up here are not worth reading even for free. I am so disappointed in how soft the BBC Today programme has gone on the Government. They ought to have been savaging the idiotic ideas the Tory ministers come out with. Also, they could have run fact checks during the campaign and provided info on what we actually get from the EC. They just give Tories a pass and attack Labour behaviours, bypassing their policies. And UKIP has been given air time across the BBC well beyond their level of support......I think I had better go for a lie down.

I couldn't agree more. I used to see someone on the left accusing the BBC of a right wing bias, then I'd see someone on the right accusing it of left wing bias and conclude it must be pretty impartial. Their coverage of Labour under Corbyn has made it impossible to hold that view any longer.  By the way, I don't think Channel 4 News is even left-leaning, it's just even-handed - but that alone is enough to make it look left-leaning when compared to the BBC, Sky and to some extent ITV News. Such is the nature of our "impartial" broadcasters.

QuoteI encounter plenty of folk who shock me on-line. The country is stuffed with bigotry, stuffed.

Mike

Unfortunately the internet allows bigots to vent their poison with anonymity and therefore no consequences. I suppose it does shine a light on what their real views are, however depressing they may be. I'm convinced that the Windrush scandal did the Tories no harm at all in the local elections and may even have helped them. Some people won't really give a shit about something that "only" affects immigrants - even if they are perfectly legal - and the bigots will be positively pleased about it.

The Brexit vote has made things far worse as those who hold really toxic views believe that the vote to leave has validated those views. When you see people asked about why they voted for Brexit and they're happy to say shit like "to get the Muslims out" to camera, something really has gone badly wrong. Even just a few years ago you'd have really struggled to find people who would be willing to display such bigotry so openly without any sense of shame. 

Interesting article here:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/04/labour-fudge-brexit-local-elections-leave-remain-corbyn

I'm not Freedland's biggest fan as he's pretty typical New Labour, but I think he's right about this:

QuoteEven ahead of the crunch decisions in October, the Lords will vote on Tuesday on an amendment that would keep Britain in the single market. If that passes and comes before the Commons, would the Labour front bench move against it? If they did, what would their anti-Brexit supporters make of that: Labour acting to keep Britain out of the single market, with its protections of environmental and workers' rights? The one option that won't be available to the party leadership is more fudge.

If there's a vote on the single market in the Lords on Tuesday then Corbyn will have to get off the fence whether he wants to or not. The Lords is even more heavily pro-Remain than the Commons, so this amendment should be passed. It would then presumably have to be voted on in the Commons. Supporting SM membership might lose Corbyn some Labour leave voters,  but opposing it would lose him a lot of the younger voters who flocked to Labour when he won the leadership. They're his biggest power base in the party - and they also tend to be the most passionately anti-Brexit. As much as I don't like seeing Brexit overriding so many domestic issues which aren't getting anywhere near the attention they should, if we're not even in the SM the economic fallout would almost certainly scupper Corbyn's domestic agenda. I'd hate to see that happen.


Another Observer/Guardian article says this:

QuoteThe Observer understands that more than 40 Labour peers are ready to back a cross-party amendment to Brexit legislation that would instruct the government to begin negotiating future UK membership of the European Economic Area (EEA).

This would mean that the UK would leave the EU and not be part of the common agricultural policy, common fisheries policy or be subject to the European Court of Justice. It would also be able to strike its own deal on freedom of movement, while being inside the EU internal market.

Not sure if this is the same amendment referred to by Freedland, but this sounds like a very decent option for Labour to go for. Inside the SM, which along with Corbyn's support for a customs union would solve the Irish border problem, able to strike a deal on freedom of movement, which should be an effective answer to the "SM = unlimited EU immigration" crap, and close enough to the EU to at least mitigate the worst of the economic damage caused by Brexit. I really hope he doesn't oppose SM membership when it comes to the crunch. I'd feel really torn over who to support if he did, especially since in England we don't have an English equivalent of the SNP to vote for.

Que

#492
Quote from: Mr. Minnow on May 05, 2018, 03:11:49 PM
If there's a vote on the single market in the Lords on Tuesday then Corbyn will have to get off the fence whether he wants to or not. The Lords is even more heavily pro-Remain than the Commons, so this amendment should be passed. It would then presumably have to be voted on in the Commons. Supporting SM membership might lose Corbyn some Labour leave voters,  but opposing it would lose him a lot of the younger voters who flocked to Labour when he won the leadership. They're his biggest power base in the party - and they also tend to be the most passionately anti-Brexit. As much as I don't like seeing Brexit overriding so many domestic issues which aren't getting anywhere near the attention they should, if we're not even in the SM the economic fallout would almost certainly scupper Corbyn's domestic agenda. I'd hate to see that happen.


Another Observer/Guardian article says this:

Not sure if this is the same amendment referred to by Freedland, but this sounds like a very decent option for Labour to go for. Inside the SM, which along with Corbyn's support for a customs union would solve the Irish border problem, able to strike a deal on freedom of movement, which should be an effective answer to the "SM = unlimited EU immigration" crap, and close enough to the EU to at least mitigate the worst of the economic damage caused by Brexit. I really hope he doesn't oppose SM membership when it comes to the crunch. I'd feel really torn over who to support if he did, especially since in England we don't have an English equivalent of the SNP to vote for.

I think Corbyn will let you down and turn against membership of the Single Market, since he thinks the EU rules on fair competition and state aide will block his agenda of economic reforms. Of course he is wrong, as various experts and prominent Labour members have argued many times over.

But I guess if something is too complex to understand, you stick with your gut instinct... Brexit in a nutshell, I would say....  ::)

The big question is whether Corbyn will get his party behind him. Probably Labour will be, like the Tories, divided to the bone...and so, on it goes... off the cliff....

Labour peers accuse Corbyn of Brexit cowardice
Party is blocking efforts in Lords to call for membership of the European Economic Area


Q

knight66

Yes, there is a kind of underhand equivocation going on in Labour. Seeming to keep options open, but closing off those options as fast as they claim them to be feasible. It depends who is speaking and indicates their real divisions in the party. Dear Little Owen's daily student-politics lectures to the less than blindly faithful have become counter productive. He is one of those....into the head, out of the mouth filterless pundits. He tweeted that those in the middle ground ideologically were nazis. He quickly deleted it, but it not only shows his playground attitudes, but made me wonder how he characterises the extreme right. One of his recent blunders was suggesting on-line that Corbyn sue Lord Sugar, a Jew, right at the worst week on the anti-semitic controversy. That would have played well, and right into the hands of Corbyn's opponents. People, esp those supporting Labour need to stop listening to him, he has no basic political nous.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday.

Glasgow hosted a really large independence rally yesterday. The sectarian bitterness between Protastant and Catholic has transferred itself to the Yes and No proponents. There are a lot of vile folk about who love to latch onto anything that gives them an opportunity to bully. I have always been firmly a no independence Scot, but am getting to the point that I prefer to be badly ruled from Edinburgh than disasterously ruled form Westminster.

Mike
DavidW: Yeah Mike doesn't get angry, he gets even.
I wasted time: and time wasted me.

Mr. Minnow

#494
Quote from: Que on May 06, 2018, 01:26:37 AM
I think Corbyn will let you down and turn against membership of the Single Market, since he thinks the EU rules on fair competition and state aide will block his agenda of economic reforms. Of course he is wrong, as various experts and prominent Labour members have argued many times over.

But I guess if something is to complex to understand, you stick with your gut instinct... Brexit in a nutshell, I would say....  ::)

That's the worry. He obviously has his faults, but I like Corbyn. His heart is in the right place, which might not sound like much, but it's pretty fundamental: if a politician has policies which are going to hurt me personally and screw the country generally then I don't care how competent or incompetent they are, as it's not going to be good either way. The current government is ample proof of that.

Corbyn is also the first leader of a major UK-wide party to challenge the dominance of Thatcherism/neoliberalism/call it what you like over the last 40 years. In terms of his domestic agenda he's got Labour pretty much where they should be. But if we're not in the SM and the economic fallout means there's no way he can implement that agenda then we really are in trouble. The deluge of abuse from the Tories would be predictable enough, but the right of the Labour party would leap at the chance to say that only a Tory-lite Labour party is viable, which takes us back to having a "choice" between a very right wing party and a marginally less right wing party.


QuoteThe big question is whether Corbyn will get his party behind him. Probably Labour will be, like the Tories, divided to the bone...and so, on it goes... off the cliff....

Labour peers accuse Corbyn of Brexit cowardice
Party is blocking efforts in Lords to call for membership of the European Economic Area


Q

I can't see how he gets his party behind him if he actively opposes SM or EEA membership. If he does that it won't just be the usual suspects on the backbenches causing trouble, for the first time it will be the membership - which up until now has resolutely supported him - who will be severely disappointed. A lot of people, me included, have stuck with Corbyn even when he looked certain to be slaughtered at last year's election because he was the only one offering something different and better instead of the same old shit. If he opposes SM membership and alienates those who have stuck by him up until now then he's got big problems. To say nothing of the country not having a viable opposition to the hard Brexit we'll get from the Tories.

Mr. Minnow

Quote from: knight66 on May 06, 2018, 03:54:41 AM
Yes, there is a kind of underhand equivocation going on in Labour. Seeming to keep options open, but closing off those options as fast as they claim them to be feasible. It depends who is speaking and indicates their real divisions in the party. Dear Little Owen's daily student-politics lectures to the less than blindly faithful have become counter productive. He is one of those....into the head, out of the mouth filterless pundits. He tweeted that those in the middle ground ideologically were nazis. He quickly deleted it, but it not only shows his playground attitudes, but made me wonder how he characterises the extreme right. One of his recent blunders was suggesting on-line that Corbyn sue Lord Sugar, a Jew, right at the worst week on the anti-semitic controversy. That would have played well, and right into the hands of Corbyn's opponents. People, esp those supporting Labour need to stop listening to him, he has no basic political nous.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday.

Glasgow hosted a really large independence rally yesterday. The sectarian bitterness between Protastant and Catholic has transferred itself to the Yes and No proponents. There are a lot of vile folk about who love to latch onto anything that gives them an opportunity to bully. I have always been firmly a no independence Scot, but am getting to the point that I prefer to be badly ruled from Edinburgh than disasterously ruled form Westminster.

Mike

You'll know more about this than me, but I'd have thought that the harder the Brexit, the more support for Scottish independence will grow. I can't see many Scots wanting to live in a country ruled by the ideology of Rees Mogg and co..

Que

The plot thickens... That's a big IF.....  8)

Brexit: Rebel Tories say they have enough MPs to push Theresa May into staying in single market – IF Labour backs it.

So, a coalition of Labour and Tory rebels could avoid a cliff edge Brexit....

But what about Corbyn and Eurosceptic Labour voters...?  ::)

Q

knight66

DavidW: Yeah Mike doesn't get angry, he gets even.
I wasted time: and time wasted me.

Mr. Minnow

#498
Quote from: Que on May 06, 2018, 08:00:42 AM
The plot thickens... That's a big IF.....  8)

Brexit: Rebel Tories say they have enough MPs to push Theresa May into staying in single market – IF Labour backs it.

So, a coalition of Labour and Tory rebels could avoid a cliff edge Brexit....

But what about Corbyn and Eurosceptic Labour voters...?  ::)

If this is true, it really is crunch time. If Corbyn has the chance to scupper the Tories' hard Brexit and doesn't take it, the consequences are likely to make any possible drawbacks of supporting SM membership (i.e. losing some pro-Brexit Labour voters) look utterly insignificant by comparison. Even the younger voters who have backed him so strongly may well find it too much to take. 


Mr. Minnow

Just found a gem in this article: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/06/hard-brexit-create-more-anger-remaining

QuoteI have already reported the finding by Bettergovgroup that "there is now widespread public recognition that the referendum was flawed and that people were not given the relevant facts". This is hardly surprising when one realises that our former ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, had to explain to the leading Brexiters in the cabinet after the referendum what the customs union and single market actually were.

Bloody hell.