Brexit

[Florestan]

Mr Azevêdo, a former Brazilian trade negotiator, said of a no-deal Brexit: "There will be an impact — it may be larger or smaller depending on the sector . . . It's not going to be the end of the world . . . but it's not going to be a walk in the park either."

Well, sometimes (always?) outsiders have a more nuanced and balanced perspective than the insiders. I think he's spot on but I'd put in the reverse order: "It's not going to be a walk in the park... but it's not going to be the end of the world either."

Plus: do anyone of you, gentlemen, trust Juncker more than May, or think the former is more honest and competent than the latter? I certainly don't.

[Que]

Well, sometimes (always?) outsiders have a more nuanced and balanced perspective than the insiders. I think he's spot on but I'd put in the reverse order: "It's not going to be a walk in the park... but it's not going to be the end of the world either."

That is nuanced. It means that loosing the economic advantages you had, doesn't mean your economy is going to collapse.
But it's going to cost both the UK and other countries a lot of money, we are talking billions.... For what??   

Plus: do anyone of you, gentlemen, trust Juncker more than May, or think the former is more honest and competent than the latter? I certainly don't.

How is the answer to the question who of these is more competent and trustworthy as a person, relevant to the rationale behind Brexit or its course?

Is chancellor Hammond more competent and trustworthy than May? Are Barnier and Tusk more competent and trustworthy than Juncker? (I believe so...)

Q

[Florestan]

That is nuanced. It means that loosing the economic advantages you had, doesn't mean your economy is going to collapse.
But it's going to cost both the UK and other countries a lot of money, we are talking billions....

Certainly.

For what??   

[/quote]

Well, people have willingly fought and died over issues more foolish than Brexit. At least the latter will not be that bloody.

How is the answer to the question who of these is more competent and trustworthy as a person, relevant to the rationale behind Brexit or its course?

Both May and Juncker try to manage a situation not of their own making, but at least Theresa May was never seen drunk in public nor did she sang the praises of Karl Marx. 

EDIT: You substituted "I believe so" for "I hope so". Telling... 

[Que]

Both May and Juncker try to manage a situation not of their own making, but at least Theresa May was never seen drunk in public nor did she sang the praises of Karl Marx. 

True. But at least Juncker is upfront about his sentiments, unlike  May as a "converted" Brexiteer.
Still not sure what this tells us about Brexit, in which Juncker is not a very influential figure.

EDIT: You substituted "I believe so" for "I hope so". Telling... 

It would... if it were true.  I changed the sentence, but "hope" was never there...
How appropriate in a Brexit discussion... 

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

but "hope" was never there...
How appropriate in a Brexit discussion... 

Q

Many a true word spoken in jest....



Terrific news - the Irish border problem has been solved!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/26/have-people-inspected-at-irish-border-after-brexit-says-jacob-rees-mogg

Try as I might, I cannot think of a single solitary way in which this could be anything other than a fantastic success.

[Que]

I expect a hardening of the Irish position on the NI border , perhaps that is what Rees-Mogg is playing for? 
Which means there not going to be a transitional agreement without a UK guarantee on a soft border.

Since both the DUP and hard Brexiteers will prevent May from making a concession on that, I have lost hope for a "blind Brexit" (a transitional deal without a trade deal). Though there still might be a small chance of a Chequers type fudge agreed between May and the EU. But that would lead to a Tory rebellion. Still, this might be what both May and Barnier will try to aim for....

Chances of a 2nd referendum seem to get slimmer, and it doesn't make much sense anymore since there still doesn't seem to be an overwhelming majority to stop Brexit altogether....

Not many alternatives left for a hard Brexit, except one: general elections in the UK would be a reason for the EU to extend the deadline for the negotiations... Plus a general election could provide a necessary realignment of UK politics and an opportunity to properly revisit the debat on Brexit.

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

I expect a hardening of the Irish position on the NI border , perhaps that is what Rees-Mogg is playing for? 
Which means there not going to be a transitional agreement without a UK guarantee on a soft border.

Since both the DUP and hard Brexiteers will prevent May from making a concession on that, I have lost hope for a "blind Brexit" (a transitional deal without a trade deal). Though there still might be a small chance of a Chequers type fudge agreed between May and the EU. But that would lead to a Tory rebellion. Still, this might be what both May and Barnier will try to aim for....

Chances of a 2nd referendum seem to get slimmer, and it doesn't make much sense anymore since there still doesn't seem to be an overwhelming majority to stop Brexit altogether....

Not many alternatives left for a hard Brexit, except one: general elections in the UK would be a reason for the EU to extend the deadline for the negotiations... Plus a general election could provide a necessary realignment of UK politics and an opportunity to properly revisit the debat on Brexit.

Q

I really hope the EU doesn't agree to a blind Brexit. It would be a farce - a mostly blank piece of paper with a promise that "we'll fill in the gaps when/if we can think of something workable." That would mean yet more fudge and delay on top of the two years of incompetence we've already had, with both main parties stumbling along trying to put sticking plasters over their internal divisions. As things stand the deadline for a deal to be reached is October or possibly early November, and we need to have a clearer idea of what Brexit will look like by then: only when we have that is there any chance of the polls starting to shift. The sooner the crunch point comes the better. That's when any realignment of British politics is likely to start, if it happens at all. Carrying on with the present paralysis isn't going to do the country any good at all, not least because Brexit is crowding out serious domestic issues which need and deserve attention.

The major obstacle to another referendum is that legislation would have to be passed to make it happen and there's not much time left for that to be done. Maybe the EU would extend the Article 50 deadline if parliament voted for it, who knows. I think the most likely way a referendum on the final deal happens is if Labour comes out in favour of it because of a deadlocked parliament. They aren't ruling that out, and there would probably be enough Tories who would back it to make it happen.

After the lull of the summer recess it feels like we're sitting on a political powder keg which is going to go off before too much longer. There is a serious possibility of a split in both main parties, a disastrous Brexit deal/no deal may well drive up support for a second independence referendum in Scotland - which could well result in a yes vote - and there may well be serious anger among remain voters at the likely effects of a Brexit deal/no deal they never voted for, and among leave voters when they realise they aren't going to get the have our cake and eat it Brexit they were promised. Whatever happens, it's not going to be pretty.

[Que]

Just imagine: a complete new series of "Yes, Minster"..... on Brexit... Awesome! 

Only this time HM most loyal servants do not seem able to save the country from itself and its stupid politicians..... 

Four in five civil service specialists dissatisfied with handling of Brexit

Q

[Que]

The EU is prepared to offer a post-Brexit deal with the U.K. that is unlike anything it has struck with any country outside the bloc, chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Wednesday, leading to a 0.8 percent jump in the value of sterling against the dollar.

"We are prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country," Barnier told reporters in Berlin, following a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Reuters reported.

"We respect Britain's red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are," he said. "Single market means single market ... There is no single market à la carte."


So...The EU is going to put out one final offer on the table....

Like everyone following Brexit, I'm curious what it will be. Best would be a single market proposal ("Norway") with extra privileges. This would be in line with Macron's wish to keep ties as close as possible.

But considering the reference to the UK's "red lines", it is more likely to be a customs' union dressed up with extra cooperation mechanisms and possibly additional privileges for the UK.... for a price, naturally....

Q

[Que]

An Irish commentary with some very interesting insights:

Brexit: Entering the final phase

The takeaway:
1. Top priority for the EU is an exit deal, which will avoid a cliff edge for now and will tie up various legal matters involving the exit (like citizens' rights).
2. Barnier is therefore focused on achieving a compromise on the biggest stumbling block: the Northern Irish border.
3. The attempt of some member states (Poland) to sacrifice the Irish issue, backfired and firmly closed the ranks in support of Ireland. Germany and France are in agreement on this.
4. The upbeat talk of an "unprecedented trade deal" is to lure the UK into concluding the exit deal and provide a (last minute) opportunity for May to save face. There will be a joint non-binding declaration about the "sun lit lands" promised by the Brexiteers, but the EU will know that it will never happen.

All of this will amount to a blind Brexit.
If the UK doesn't take the bait: behind the scenes preparations for a no deal situation are in full swing in Brussels.

Q

[Mr. Minnow]

The EU is prepared to offer a post-Brexit deal with the U.K. that is unlike anything it has struck with any country outside the bloc, chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Wednesday, leading to a 0.8 percent jump in the value of sterling against the dollar.

"We are prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country," Barnier told reporters in Berlin, following a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Reuters reported.

"We respect Britain's red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are," he said. "Single market means single market ... There is no single market à la carte."


So...The EU is going to put out one final offer on the table....

Like everyone following Brexit, I'm curious what it will be. Best would be a single market proposal ("Norway") with extra privileges. This would be in line with Macron's wish to keep ties as close as possible.

But considering the reference to the UK's "red lines", it is more likely to be a customs' union dressed up with extra cooperation mechanisms and possibly additional privileges for the UK.... for a price, naturally....

Q

There was a lot of excitement over Barnier's more positive tone, even though he'd made similar remarks before. Now he's said he's strongly opposed both to the UK's customs proposal (which he called illegal), and the common rulebook, since it would kill the European project - and in any case, separating goods and services is often not possible. So back to reality then.

Since the government is saying that it's Chequers or nothing, and since Chequers appears to be dead, it looks like a no deal outcome. And as far as a blind Brexit is concerned:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit

This article says it isn't only France opposed to a blind Brexit:

"It is not a matter of France being isolated on this, but they are the ones pushing it," said the diplomat. "They are always talking about the need for clarity and precision.

"Two years would not be long enough to have a wider internal discussion and negotiate with the Brits. The transition would need to be extended. France has had enough."

So it's all going terrifically well.

[Mr. Minnow]

Well it made me chuckle.

[EddieRUKiddingVarese]

Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit 

[Mr. Minnow]

Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit 

That's actually a more coherent plan than anything the government has come up with over the last two years.

[EddieRUKiddingVarese]

That's actually a more coherent plan than anything the government has come up with over the last two years.

Glad to hear some one like my ideas, next I'll run for PM 

And my Platform will be tax Free HiFI, so vote for the HFUK party instead of the Ordinary Fi party of the UK (OFUK)

[Daverz]

Shouldn't the Uk just get a really really big tug boat and head out into the Indian Ocean - then you could all get some better weather and some real authentic Indian tucker and really exit Brexit 

I'm told that many Britons believe this, or a similar geographic arrangement, is already the case.

[EddieRUKiddingVarese]

I'm told that many Britons believe this, or a similar geographic arrangement, is already the case.

[Que]

And as far as a blind Brexit is concerned:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuel-macron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit

This article says it isn't only France opposed to a blind Brexit:

So it's all going terrifically well.

So France and Germany are not on the same page on a blind Brexit....

Macron is afraid that in the end Britain will be lost as a close partner to the EU, and tries to build last minute momentum for some kind of deal.

The Germans are perhaps less idealistic but certainly more pragmatic and realistic: there is no time left to hammer out yet another option. And the UK is politically unstable and therefore an completely unreliable negotiating partner.

When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter....

Q

[JBS]

So France and Germany are not on the same page on a blind Brexit....

Macron is afraid that in the end Britain will be lost as a close partner to the EU, and tries to build last minute momentum for some kind of deal.

The Germans are perhaps less idealistic but certainly more pragmatic and realistic: there is no time left to hammer out yet another option. And the UK is politically unstable and therefore an completely unreliable negotiating partner.

When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter....

Q

Perhaps part of the difference lies in the fact that if there is a massive jam up for commerce coming in and out,  France will be almost the first to feel the effects, for purely logistical reasons .  The Netherlands and Belgium as well, albeit not to the same degree.   Germany will get the knock on effects but  France will have to deal with the traffic jam at the Chunnel.

[Mr. Minnow]

When the deadline closes and the choice is between a hard Brexit now with billions of economic and political damage, or kicking the issue futher down the road... I have no doubt that the French will sign up. Whether the UK will be aboard and sign off on a NI clause, is an entirely different matter....

Q

I'm not sure if the French will sign up. I think a blind Brexit would be a farce, and bad for the country, for reasons I've already mentioned. But even leaving that aside, there's no point in France or the EU as a whole agreeing to such a monumental fudge if we're just going to end up in the same position at the end of the transition period as we are now - and I don't see how that can be avoided: the ERG is committed to voting down Chequers even in its current form, and they have more than enough Tory MPs to do that (to say nothing of other Tories who are Brexit ultras but not ERG members). Any concessions to the EU will only increase the number of Tory MPs willing to vote it down. So how does it get through the Commons? The only way I can see is with Labour support, but would Labour be willing to associate themselves with a Tory Brexit? Highly unlikely (the usual suspects like Field, Stringer and Hoey excepted).

As incredible as it may seem, getting a deal with the EU is actually the "easier" bit of this lunacy - but even that is pointless if any deal which could conceivably be agreed is bound to be voted down in the Commons.  And anything other than a hard Brexit looks certain to be defeated by the ERG, whether that deal is reached now or at the end of the transition period. If anything, a blind Brexit is a risk for the EU, because there's a serious chance that when we're out at the end of March, May will be ousted and replaced by some ERG-approved lunatic, and there certainly won't be any deal to be done with them, nothing that would be even close to acceptable from the EU's point of view anyway. Indeed, an ERG-run government might well be actively hostile to the EU. God knows they're mad enough.