Brexit

[Que]

[...]

Of the major European leaders, only Angela Merkel has some patience left and is still keen to avoid the economic and geopolitical fall out of a no-deal. Bless her!

Unlike Macron, she isn't interested in fish and is willing to compromise on that.

She has made very clear that her main problem is that the British refuse to agree on a mechanism that enables the EU to respond to future UK regulatory divergences that would undermine fair competition.

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU

Barnier says PM's acceptance of need for 'evolution clause' as standards diverge has unlocked talks

Barnier is right: with this concession Germany will be on board, and the rest will follow.
Macron will resist over fish, but will ultimately compromise.

Boris is now caught between a rock and a hard place: both options will mean severe damage to the UK economy and the end of his political career...

Boris waited with key concessions till the moment that the prevailing mood in the UK would be one of relief, to save his political skin from the wrath of Brexit hardliners.

In my opinion there wil be a deal soon, in time for the emergency session of the European Parliament on the 28th of December.

Q

[MusicTurner]

Well, better than nothing. Details will be very interesting, should an agreement be made.

[Iota]

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU

Barnier says PM's acceptance of need for 'evolution clause' as standards diverge has unlocked talks

Barnier is right: with this concession Germany will be on board, and the rest will follow.
Macron will resist over fish, but will ultimately compromise.

Boris waited with key concessions till the moment that the prevailing mood in the UK would be one of relief, to save his political skin from the wrath of Brexit hardliners.

In my opinion there wil be a deal soon, in time for the emergency session of the European Parliament on the 28th of December.

Q

Interesting to hear the your views of European thought processes. The market seems to share your optimism.

https://www.ft.com/content/41f75c38-eac2-4ad3-8ba9-4121a9213157

I do hope there is a deal, but can't bring myself to assume anything until any dotted lines have been signed. Even then, bearing in mind the UK's recent egregious credentials at sticking to agreed provisions, if there is a deal I wonder what the EU are going to do to ensure the UK don't indulge in anymore illegal back-pedalling?

[Que]

I'm afraid that the deal, if it comes about, will be a dissapointment to all sides...

Q

[Iota]

Of that I'm under no illusion, but when you have lemons, you don't have many choices other than making lemonade alas. And for me that option remains preferable to no drink at all, but a sorry and absurd state of affairs for sure. : (

[Que]

An interesting article in the Financial Times about Britain's regained liberty.

I put it - not as provocation but as a heartfelt opinion - that as a EU member state Britain was a major player within the EU and not a "vassal state", but will now be turned into just that by Brexit. Which is very ironic. And I don't mean that sarcastic - as a fellow European I find it a very sad state of affairs indeed. A whole nation has been turned against us, the rest of Europe, and the blame game after Brexit will only deepen the divide.


The UK will now count the cost of Brexit sovereignty

Boris Johnson's government is about to exchange real power for a chimera

Finally. In two short weeks the UK will reclaim its liberty. Brexit has so far been a story of rancorous division, shaking political fists and fractured ties with old allies. The union of Britain and Northern Ireland has been put in peril. But the glittering prize that will make it all worthwhile is now in sight.

We know what it is called. Boris Johnson and his fellow Brexiters speak of little else. The country, the prime minister promises, is to recover its "sovereignty". Forget the last minute wrangling with Brussels. The difference between a trade deal and no deal before January 1 is trivial against the loftier purpose. What was it Mr Johnson once said? "Fuck business". Brexit is about taking back control, returning the UK to self-government, regaining full command of its borders, money and laws.

In one narrow sense, Brexit's true believers are right. The gap between a thin trade deal and the absence of any accord is one between severe and more severe disruption. Either way, the UK will need 50,000 or more new customs agents to cope with the bureaucracy being injected into once-frictionless trading arrangements. The bargain under discussion is the first trade agreement in history consciously to raise protectionist barriers.

UK citizens will forfeit the right to travel and work without hindrance across the EU. Service industry workers will lose automatic recognition of their skills and qualifications. The independent experts belittled by ministers such as Michael Gove are near unanimous in predicting slower economic growth and lower living standards.

In return, British citizens will be able to indulge their nostalgia with a new, blue-hued passport to distinguish them from fellow Europeans — a reward that seems unlikely to compensate travellers for being henceforth consigned to the slow lanes at EU airports. Sovereignty, we are told by the Brexiters, also precludes membership of the Erasmus student exchange scheme, a role in the Galileo satellite project, and full access to the EU's intelligence gathering on terrorist and criminal networks.

So what, it now seems fair to ask, does this precious sovereignty look and taste like? Does it come in the form of a sculpted Britannia, disinterred from the cellars of the Berlaymont headquarters of the European Commission to be placed on a pedestal at Westminster? Will the scales of justice be transferred by carriage from the European Court in Luxembourg to the UK Supreme Court? And how, some British voters might be inclined to ask, will any of this improve prosperity and security?

You might have thought a prime minister so attached to the idea of sovereignty would have planned a spectacular demonstration of what it means for the UK to regain control of its borders, money and laws. After all, a post-Brexit pile-up of freight trucks waiting to cross the English Channel will not much look like an act of liberation. 

Instead, the Brexiters' fatal confusion between sovereignty and power is about to be exposed. Untrammelled sovereignty sounds alluring, but in a world in which each nation's security and economic wellbeing is inextricably connected to those of others, it turns out that it does not confer real power. 

Mr Johnson wants to stop migrants crossing the Channel in small boats to claim asylum in the UK. So what's to prevent him after January 1, when the government will be free of all EU restrictions? It is called reality. Halting the boats will depend, as it always has, on the active co-operation of the French authorities. So much for sovereignty. During the debate before the 2016 referendum, Leavers were often asked when had the EU taken big decisions against the expressed will of Westminster. Where was the proof the EU had been trampling on the nation's liberties? Beyond muttering about over-enthusiastic business regulation (much of it sought by British industry), I don't recall them giving an answer. 

These same Brexiters have nothing to offer now. Trade deals promised with third countries will largely replicate those the UK now enjoys within the EU. Mr Johnson's insistence on a right to diverge from EU norms in areas such as the environment, safety and employment is empty of serious meaning. Businesses that want to trade will continue to shadow the rules set in Brussels. UK boats may catch more fish in "sovereign" UK waters, but they will have to find willing buyers on the other side of the Channel.

There you have it. Brexit is a national tragedy built on a chimera. The UK is about to discover that it has traded the real power to shape its destiny for an illusion drenched in nostalgia.

[Madiel]

Pretty accurate. I've been pointing out on another forum that Australian law has a number of provisions that are there solely for the sake of our trade deals with the EU and for assuring the EU that our goods will meet their standards.

It's what happens when a fully sovereign nation makes a deal. The UK won't free itself from taking into account what the EU wants, it will just have a lot more paperwork to fill out.

[The new erato]

Yes, and rather obvious to me too. Instead og being a significant member of an EU focused in playing a larger part on the international scene, they have consigned themselves to being a midsize actor with no real clout.

[Que]

Eleventh-hour Brexit talks said to be 'extremely difficult'

Last contentious issue: fish.....

The EU is now offering to return 25% of the current amount caught by other member states in UK waters. But the UK wants more and is intending to kick out the companies from other member states it sold a large portion of the UK quota to. (Who is going to catch all that fish?)

This is going to hit the fishing industries in France, Ireland, Belgium, The Netherlands and Denmark hard...

Deadline is supposed to be tonight, but don't you believe it... That was the wish of the European Parliament so it could properly prepare its emergency session next week.

But when push comes to shove, the real deadline lies further ahead.
The idea of translation of the treaty in all languases of the memer statds has already been abandoned - all procedures are going to be conducted on the basis of the negotiated English text.
And a provisional application of a deal, pending approval by the European Parliament and ratification by all member states is already being discussed. All that is really needed is the consent of ALL governments of the member states and probably the UK parliament.

Q

[Que]

And the negotiations are still stuck on FISH...


"Barnier told EU ambassadors on Tuesday that Britain's latest offer on fish is less generous than it appears and that his proposal that European boats should sacrifice 25 per cent of their catch in British waters over seven years is final. Britain's proposal for the EU to give up 30-35 per cent over five years does not include pelagic fish such as herring, mackerel and whiting, so it is effectively a demand for European boats to sacrifice 60 per cent of the value of what they catch in British waters.

Britain is also seeking to water down level playing field commitments on fair competition, to make them less constraining, less binding and less subject to a dispute resolution mechanism."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-hopes-fade-for-deal-before-christmas-but-delay-fraught-with-risk-for-johnson-1.4444244

Johnson is the one who is running the biggest risk here, so he will blink first - possibly before Christmas.

Q

[MusicTurner]

Isn't the general feeling just:
why the H*** can't those fools just get it done, in spite of the lots of money involved, as problems intensify on the ground and there are literally just a few days left - it's been so many years of embarrassing travesty 

[Que]

Isn't the general feeling just:
why the H*** can't those fools just get it done, in spite of the lots of money involved - it's been so many years of embarrassing travesty 

Politics! 

For the EU the negotiation process is largely rational: it is a damage limiting exercise focused on reducing the negative economic impact of Brexit and locking the UK into a stable relationship while avoiding future risks of unfair competition. But of course the threat to the livelihoods of fishermen in the EU will play an important political role as well.

For Johnson his entire political career is at stake. In terms of economics he is playing a lose-lose game: any outcome will damage the UK economy severely. So politically he must come out looking the winner that fought hard and got the best result possible. His primary concern is to avoid an immediate and very visible chaos right after Brexit. The far more serious but slower and more long term economic damage will less of his concern. In a few years time a bad economy can be blamed on all kinds of things: the pandemic, the EU, Scotland, Ireland, Labour.... plenty of possibilities there.
He is holding out till the last minute to prevent Brexit hardliners to topple him and sink any deal.

Whether he will survive, we'll see. The simultaneous COVID crisis might lead to his imminent fall.
It will be interesting to see which way the Tories will go after that: more hardline nationalist or more moderate.
I fear the former - in times of crisis voices of reason are not often heard.

Q

[MusicTurner]

Agree - one of the things implied in my outburst is that of the psychologically enforced long-term alienation of the political class from the public, especially the British one. To repair it with effectiveness will be a very demanding task and take a long time, and there's a risk for the simple solutions, populist and authoritarian trends to grow. Also, facing the crisis in the UK will mean further ideological polarization and class/wealth differences, with poverty and social problems.

Here it's BTW considered most likely that Scotland will separate and join the EU.

[Que]

The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs. 

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

[71 dB]

The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs. 

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

Well that's good news if it is true, but I hate how politics is about "victories" for the politicians themselves. Boris Johnson is rich and priviledged. He is comfortable. Only his giant ego needs these victories. What matters is how these deals affect REGULAR people in UK and EU.

Also I hate political math. Who says those 28 wins of UK are equally big/important than the 11 of EU? Who does those 28 wins benefit? Regular people? The rich? The devil is in the details and this kind of silly math hides it from the people.

[Que]

The beauty is that the EU will only be all too happy to let Boris claim his victory.
If this helps the acceptance of the deal in the UK and a return to a stable and constructive relationship.

The EU suffered its real loss when the UK decided to leave (and so did the UK), and this is just damage control.
It will be relieved that it can returns its attention to other pressing matters, like: anti-democratic populism in Eastern Europe, the climate, agricultural reform and increasing global instability and security threats.

Q

[Irons]

The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs. 

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

I thought Macron was claiming victory?

[Que]

I thought Macron was claiming victory?

I haven't seen it...

But particularly the agreement on fish will be a hard sell domestically for several EU leaders, including Macron.

[Mandryka]

The announcement of a deal is imminent!

Good news for those who shop in or from the UK: there will be no border tariffs. 

Naturally Boris comes out of these negotiations as the victor, who like St. George, patron saint of England, has slain the evil dragon.

A taste of things to come:

It reminds me of the Falklands war. I remember taking a bus somewhere in Oxford and someone sat in front of me was reading a newspaper and the headline on the front page said something like « England 4, Argentina 0 »

[vandermolen]

It reminds me of the Falklands war. I remember taking a bus somewhere in Oxford and someone sat in front of me was reading a newspaper and the headline on the front page said something like « England 4, Argentina 0 »

Even worse was the Sun headline 'Gotcha!' when a Royal Navy submarine sunk an Argentinian battleship with many lives lost.

I'm glad there is a trade deal with the EU but, as with the Falklands War, I can't stand the triumphalism of it all. Boris is basically clearing up the mess that he was largely responsible for creating himself and what about all that money promised to the NHS which never materialised?