Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down

[Turner]

Three hurricanes, just after Harvey ...

[amw]

Irma has not intensified as much as feared, and wind shear will begin weakening it in ~12 hours, when it's forecast to be offshore of Marco Island/Everglades City area. Likely to make landfall in the Keys at or around current pressure of 928mbar, similar to Donna (1960), but subsequent impacts should be less severe.

[Spineur]

The eye just hit the lower keys with a central pressure of 930 mb similar to Donna which had up to now an identical trajectory to Irma.  Donna made a strange turn to the east through the upper part of FL which is not predicted for Irma according to the current models.  Damages due to water surges look bad, but the winds which are peaking up at 130mph right now will be far less destructive as initially thought.

[amw]

Signs of increasing disruption in the eyewall as westerly wind shear takes over; eye still well-defined but now looks more like a half moon than a full circle, which is a good sign. (see e.g. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJXNFsvVwAEaktw.jpg) However the westerly winds also increase the risk of storm surge along the western Florida coast by essentially keeping the waters from receding as quickly as they normally might. Which is not such a good sign. Surge could be 2-3m as far north as Tampa Bay, with as much as 5-6m in the Naples area. 1m already recorded in Miami and Key West, the latter expecting 3-4m once the eye of the storm has passed

[Mirror Image]

Update:

[kishnevi]

Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

[Mirror Image]

Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

Great to hear, Jeffrey. I was hoping it wasn't going to be bad for you guys as I really felt terrible for all of you down there. Thankfully, some minimal damage was done and it wasn't any worse than what it could have been. Take care, my friend.

[Ken B]

Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

Great news Jeffrey!

Let's hope Neal is as lucky too.

[Scion7]

I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over.

Yup, now you just have to worry about storm-disturbed alligators, adult non-native monitor lizards, and storm-zombies.

Especially storm-zombies!   

[amw]

Glad you made it! Miami metro had an easier time than feared, but still, I can't imagine it was particularly fun for anyone in the area. 1.5 million people still without power and downtown Miami apparently flooded. Probably be a few more days before we'll be able to assess the damage (still about 400 miles of tropical storm force winds extending from Panama City to Charleston....)

José has also weakened quite a bit and now seems to be going around in a circle. And Florida will get at least one week to clean up before there's any chance of it affecting the US or Bahamas 😱

[Scion7]

5:58 A.M. Monday morning.
The Carolinas are getting rain bands.

[Karl Henning]

Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Good!

My friends in Boca also report well.

[mc ukrneal]

We decided to escape last minute. But it doesn't look as bad as what could have been. Electricity is out and lots of trees down, but seems otherwise mostly ok.

[Karl Henning]

Thanks for checking in

[Spineur]

Glad to see that everyone made it.  Hopefully the next one will be a few years down the line...

[Gurn Blanston]

Hey everyone!
I have another night of high wind and squalls to get through but the worst for me is over. Can't leave the house yet, so I don't know if my roof lost shingles, etc. But thank God no important damage. Flooding and sea surge were not a factor for me, since I live well inland.
Winds here gusted to 85-90 mph hours. Closest approach of the eye was about 100 mph.
Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

Now it's the turn of Tampa and north Florida. Then it will try to annoy MI.

That is excellent news, Jeffrey, better than you could have hoped. I am in Vermont, we stayed up anxiously watching the news. As it turned out, my b-i-l in Spring Hill came out OK, but we haven't heard anything yet from our niece in Lakeland. They got it pretty bad there, fingers crossed...

Good on you too, Neal. I'll be back soon.

[Sergeant Rock]

Miraculously, even though I lost cellphone service my electric stayed on.

My niece in Jacksonville (at the Naval Air Station) experienced the opposite: electricity lost but cell phone still working. Glad to hear you survived intact.

We decided to escape last minute.

As did my brother and his family (in Panama City). He took off yesterday with his wife, daughter and cat. Last I heard they were enjoying the swimming pool at a motel near the Alabama border (well, maybe not the cat).

My best friend has a house near the beach on Anna Marie Island (south of Tampa). No word yet on how the island fared (he's ensconced in Ohio).

Sarge

[Scion7]

[Mirror Image]

Good to hear the GMG members in Florida are doing well (Neal, Jeffrey Smith, among others I'm sure). Right now, Irma has decided to stir things up a bit here in Northeast GA, but it's no worse than a lot of thunderstorms I've seen here. The rain seems to have stopped...it's just wind now. By the way, I'm 45 miles NE of Atlanta, so I don't live in Atlanta as some GMG members think I do.

[Rinaldo]

The Virgin Islands before and after Irma..



These natural-color images, captured by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on the Landsat 8 satellite, show some of Irma's effect on the British and U.S. Virgin Islands.

Glad you guys down there are okay.