And They're Off! The Democratic Candidates for 2020

Started by JBS, June 26, 2019, 05:40:42 PM

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71 dB

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 22, 2020, 06:23:29 AM
780.000 subscribers can't be wrong, can they?  :P

Of course they can, but Kyle Kulinski happens to be highly respected on the left. Apparently a centrist like you can't understand that.
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CNN / SSRS: National Democratic Primary Preference Jan. 16-19, 2020 +/- 3.4 % pts

Bernie Sanders --- 27 %
Joe Biden --- 24 %
Elizabeth Warren --- 14 %
Pete Buttigieg --- 11 %
Michael Bloomberg --- 5 %
Amy Klobuchar --- 4 %
Andrew Yang --- 4 %
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JBS

 
Quote from: 71 dB on January 22, 2020, 06:31:45 AM
Having exciting candidates makes people vote for those candidates.
Bernie will get a bunch of people excited enough to vote for Trump because he's an "authentic Socialist". He will a bunch of turned off from voting Democratic as well.  Which is why Trump gains.
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Hillary Clinton surely is corrupt and arrogant, but the problem for people is these AFFECT her poliicies. She used to be for medicare for all. That's before insurance companies and Big Pharma bought her. In fact that's the reason why I thought she was a great candidate in 2016, because I had seen her older opinions (form 90's and early 00's) which sounded good without knowing she has changed her positions since and is corporate af nowadays. That's among the first things I learned from Kyle Kulinski. Hillary was really weak in the Rust Belt. Some Obama voters turned to Trump, because his fake populist words resonated to them more than Hillary's corporate centrism while Democratic turnout was low because Hillary didn't excite voters enough. Just 70.000 more votes on the Rust Belt would have won Hillary the election!
Hillary acted as if the American people were duty bound to elect her as The First Female President. The arrogance of that, the arrogance she showed in acting as if she was above the law in the email server case, and the corruption and influence peddling exemplified in the Clinton Foundation were why people didn't vote for her. Her defects of character far outweighed any policy defects.
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You base this claim on what? Corporate media certainly keeps up this narrative (althou lately they are panicing over Bernie), but does that make it a fact? Should we look at some polls? Opinions OUTSIDE corporate media? A lot of Trump voters would have voted for Bernie in the Rust Belt. Bernie would be in the white house if it wasn't for the DNC robbing the nomiation from him.

Leftist policies are not popular here, especially when people discover the details. People of course like free health care, but don't like it once they realize it comes with higher taxes and serious limitations on coverage. 


Hollywood Beach Broadwalk

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#2203
Quote from: JBS on January 22, 2020, 06:57:10 PM
Bernie will get a bunch of people excited enough to vote for Trump because he's an "authentic Socialist". He will a bunch of turned off from voting Democratic as well.  Which is why Trump gains.
Hillary acted as if the American people were duty bound to elect her as The First Female President. The arrogance of that, the arrogance she showed in acting as if she was above the law in the email server case, and the corruption and influence peddling exemplified in the Clinton Foundation were why people didn't vote for her. Her defects of character far outweighed any policy defects.
Leftist policies are not popular here, especially when people discover the details. People of course like free health care, but don't like it once they realize it comes with higher taxes and serious limitations on coverage.

Looks like there aren't many of those who will vote for Trump because Bernie's an "authentic Socialist" since pretty much all polls show Bernie beating Trump with a clear margin. You can have feelings of people voting against a "socialist", but facts don't care about our feelings. My feelings say hardly anybody should be so dumb as to vote for Trump at this point, but facts don't care about my feelings and the Dems need a really strong candidate against Trump and that seems to be Bernie according to the polls. So Bernie is the best candidate because he is the strongest against Trump and also because he is the best of the bunch to make the systemic changes the US so badly needs. He is a no-brainer candidate, but people like you can't see it, because of the influence corporate media has had on you.

Bernie Sanders is the most liked Senator in the country. He gets most small dollar donations from regular people. He is one of the top candidates in the race according to the polls and his policies poll very well among the Americans. You (and corporate media) say leftist policies are not popular over there. What's wrong with this picture? This may come to a shock to you, but leftist policies are VERY popular in the US. Those policies are just crushed by the top 1 % thanks the oligarchy. The system has been rigged.

Free healthcare doesn't exist, but healthcare can be free at the point of service. Medicare for all would mean most Americans significant drops in healthcare costs (the increase in taxes is smaller than the savings of not having to pay premiums etc "private taxes"). The richest people (maybe 15 % of the population) would see an increase in their healthcare cost. Also your claims of limited coverage is corporate bs to protect the financial interests of insurance companies and Big Pharma. M4A increases coverage and choice as you can go to any doctor instead of a doctor in your network. 
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Karl Henning

Quote from: JBS on January 22, 2020, 06:57:10 PM
Bernie will get a bunch of people excited enough to vote for Trump because he's an "authentic Socialist". He will a bunch of turned off from voting Democratic as well.  Which is why Trump gains.
Hillary acted as if the American people were duty bound to elect her as The First Female President. The arrogance of that, the arrogance she showed in acting as if she was above the law in the email server case, and the corruption and influence peddling exemplified in the Clinton Foundation were why people didn't vote for her. Her defects of character far outweighed any policy defects.
Leftist policies are not popular here, especially when people discover the details. People of course like free health care, but don't like it once they realize it comes with higher taxes and serious limitations on coverage. 



Exactly, you love free anything, unless A) It's shoddy and B) It ain't really free.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

71 dB

National @SurveyUSA General Election poll:

Bernie Sanders 52 % (+9)
Donald Trump 43 %

Joe Biden 50 % (+7)
Donald Trump 43 %

Michael Bloomberg 49 % (+7)
Donald Trump 42 %

Pete Buttigieg 47 % (+3)
Donald Trump 44 %

Elizabeth Warren 48 % (+3)
Donald Trump 45 %

Andrew Yang 46 % (+2)
Donald Trump 44 %


Tom Steyer 44 %
Donald Trump 44 %


Donald Trump 45 % (+2)
Amy Klobucher 43 %

Donald Trump 44 % (+5)
Tulsi Gabbard 39 %
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Morning Consult early-State tracking:

Joe Biden 26 %
Bernie Sanders 23 %
Tom Steyer 15 %
Elizabeth Warren 12 %
Pete Buttigieg 11 %
Andrew Yang 4 %
Michael Bloomberg 3 %
Tulsi Gabbard 3 %
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WBUR New Hampshire Democratic Primary poll:

Bernie Sanders 29 %   :o  8)
Pete Buttigieg 17 %
Joe Biden 14 %
Elizabeth Warren 13 %
Amy Klobuchar 6 %
Andrew Yang 5 %
Tulsi Gabbard 5 %
Tom Steyer 2 %

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71 dB

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 23, 2020, 07:19:17 AM
Exactly, you love free anything, unless A) It's shoddy and B) It ain't really free.

A) For profit healthcare is shoddy: High costs, mediocre outcomes and poor coverage. Care is secondary to profit.
B) Nothing is free. There's only various ways to pay for things. Good way (single payer) and bad way (private insurers).
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Florestan

Quote from: 71 dB on January 23, 2020, 01:17:58 PM
A) For profit healthcare is shoddy: High costs, mediocre outcomes and poor coverage. Care is secondary to profit.
B) Nothing is free. There's only various ways to pay for things. Good way (single payer) and bad way (private insurers).

Karl Henning is a US citizen who suffered a stroke, so that he's in the unfortunate position to know a thing or two about the US healthcare system. He's also far from belonging to the "1% richest Americans" you are so fond of lambasting. Yet he's also far from sharing your enthusiasm for Bernie's MfA scheme. Why is that, I wonder? And no, I won't take "brainwashed by the corporate media" for an answer.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

JBS

Quote from: 71 dB on January 23, 2020, 01:17:58 PM
A) For profit healthcare is shoddy: High costs, mediocre outcomes and poor coverage. Care is secondary to profit.
B) Nothing is free. There's only various ways to pay for things. Good way (single payer) and bad way (private insurers).

Your point A is wrong. Here in the US people with private insurance generally get better care than people with government supplied insurance.  Public-paid health care has worse outcomes, worse coverage,  and higher per patient costs. For profit healthcare may be bad, but single payer is worse. Which is why your point B is also wrong.

Don't start lecturing about corporate bs. I know the corporate media lies and manipulates, just as you know it does.  I know the right wing media lies and manipulates, just as you know it does. I know the left wing media lies and manipulates. Unfortunately you can't accept that, so it renders your perceptions of US politics and problems garbage.

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JBS

#2211
Quote from: 71 dB on January 23, 2020, 12:06:41 PM
National @SurveyUSA General Election poll:

Bernie Sanders 52 % (+9)
Donald Trump 43 %

Joe Biden 50 % (+7)
Donald Trump 43 %

Michael Bloomberg 49 % (+7)
Donald Trump 42 %

Pete Buttigieg 47 % (+3)
Donald Trump 44 %

Elizabeth Warren 48 % (+3)
Donald Trump 45 %

Andrew Yang 46 % (+2)
Donald Trump 44 %


Tom Steyer 44 %
Donald Trump 44 %


Donald Trump 45 % (+2)
Amy Klobucher 43 %

Donald Trump 44 % (+5)
Tulsi Gabbard 39 %


Once you account for the margin of error, Bernie, Biden, and Bloomberg are statistically equal.    So Bernie is not the strongest candidate, despite anything Kyle might tell you.

You are also forgetting the Bradley effect, as we call it here.

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SimonNZ


71 dB

Quote from: Florestan on January 23, 2020, 01:32:41 PM
Karl Henning is a US citizen who suffered a stroke, so that he's in the unfortunate position to know a thing or two about the US healthcare system. He's also far from belonging to the "1% richest Americans" you are so fond of lambasting. Yet he's also far from sharing your enthusiasm for Bernie's MfA scheme. Why is that, I wonder? And no, I won't take "brainwashed by the corporate media" for an answer.

That's unfortunate to hear. I am baffled as to why he doesn't support Bernie and his policies, because as you say he is not part of the top 1 %.
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#2214
Quote from: JBS on January 23, 2020, 06:33:33 PM
Your point A is wrong. Here in the US people with private insurance generally get better care than people with government supplied insurance.  Public-paid health care has worse outcomes, worse coverage,  and higher per patient costs. For profit healthcare may be bad, but single payer is worse. Which is why your point B is also wrong.

Don't start lecturing about corporate bs. I know the corporate media lies and manipulates, just as you know it does.  I know the right wing media lies and manipulates, just as you know it does. I know the left wing media lies and manipulates. Unfortunately you can't accept that, so it renders your perceptions of US politics and problems garbage.

No, you are wrong. The US has mediocre healthcare outcomes. It's not better than elsewhere. You have been lied to. Sure, for the megarich US healthcare is brilliant, since with money you can get excellent care, but for regular people that's not the case. For most Americans the US healthcare system is the worst among developped countries.

If the US healthcare system was so much better instead of talking about "Bernie's bill" I would spend my time on Finnish forums demanding US model to Finland, but the evidence speaks for the contrary. You have never explained what is this coverage YOU have thanks to private insurance single payer healthcare wouldn't give you. If there is anything it's things like nosejobs, things that people don't need to stay alive and healthy. Bernie's Bill allows private insurance for nosejobs and other vanity things not covered publicly so don't be afraid.

I suggest you start thinking why some people lie or say the things they say. What is their motive? Why am I supporting Medicare for all? It's because the overwhelming evidence shows for profit healthcare to be a disaster. It's totally insane millions of people don't have access to basic healthcare in the richest country in the World. It's insane thousands of families are driven to bankruptcies because a family member got cancer. These problems can be fixed and it saves money. You say you know corporate media lies, but why do you believe their narrative and smears? You clearly don't believe left-wing media and I don't know how to make you trust them more, but maybe you should believe nobody? Do your own research.
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#2215
Quote from: JBS on January 23, 2020, 06:37:45 PM
Once you account for the margin of error, Bernie, Biden, and Bloomberg are statistically equal.    So Bernie is not the strongest candidate, despite anything Kyle might tell you.

You are also forgetting the Bradley effect, as we call it here.

Of course you have excuses when Bernie does well in the polls. Margin of error? Does this error always work for Bernie? Never against him? Yes, especially Bernie and Biden are statistically equal, but doesn't it also mean we can't say Biden is the leader of this race? I just give the numbers here. I haven't said Bernie's lead is safe. Not at all! I have said it all the time that it will be hard work for Bernie to get the nomination, but it's totally possible.

However, Bernie is the strongest candidate against Trump. Beating Trump will be "easy" for Bernie.

Bradley effect? Bernie is non-white now? Who does Bradley effect favor in this election and why?
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Karl Henning

No one (I don't believe, contests that it is possible that Bernie may be the nominee.

Of course, you're assertion that Bernie is the best nominee to beat Trump, remains only an assertion.

No, no, please don't bother to post a YouTube vid.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

greg

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 24, 2020, 06:16:29 AM
No one (I don't believe, contests that it is possible that Bernie may be the nominee.

Of course, you're assertion that Bernie is the best nominee to beat Trump, remains only an assertion.

No, no, please don't bother to post a YouTube vid.
This seems to be what I'm seeing also.

Bernie could possibly be the nominee. But I've seen that Trump has 34% of the black support now? If it turned out to be the case then there's no stopping him.
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Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 24, 2020, 06:16:29 AM
No one (I don't believe, contests that it is possible that Bernie may be the nominee.

Of course, you're assertion that Bernie is the best nominee to beat Trump, remains only an assertion.

No, no, please don't bother to post a YouTube vid.

For long the corporate media did not believe in Bernie's chances (read: They acted like Bernie doesn't have a chance to make people think Bernie is done), but lately they have been forced to acknowledge the fact that Bernie is one of the strongest candidates in the race. The problem corporate media has is the more they attack Bernie the more people support him (the same happened with Trump). The corporate media has tried to "ignore" Bernie, but it's difficult to ignore a candidate who is number 1 in many polls, raises the most money and so on... ...so now they are attacking Bernie with all kind of things they can find such as taking Bernie's words from 1976 about wage slavery out of context etc. but these things don't seem to hurt Bernie so what can they do? It is an interesting year for sure!

The claim that Bernie is the strongest against Trump can be argued for and I have tried to do so here:

1) The general election polls where Biden and Bernie have consistently been the strongest against Trump
2) Biden's mental decline and Ukraine make him more vulnerable against Trump than people think
3) Rust Belt is important against Trump - Bernie is very strong in the Rust Belt.
4) Fake populist (Trump) is weak against real populist (Bernie)
5) Fake populist (Trump) is strong against a corporate (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, ...)

It's important to understand the US has entered the era of political populism. It's not 1992 anymore when centrism and triangulation worked. Yes, Hillary Clinton lost because she was so hated, but WHY is she hated? That's because what she represents. She would have been more liked in 2016 had she been more left-wing, but she didn't even try! She was entitled and thought her centrism easily defeats Trump's fake populism. Well, it's not 1992 anymore and that's why the tangerine nightmare is in the White House...

It's another story how things actually unfold, but all the evidence suggests Bernie is definitely one of strongest against Trump if not the strongest. The corporate narrative that Bernie has poor electability is total bs. Bernie supporters want Trump out and would never support him if there was a doubt about his chances to beat Trump. The evidence suggests there is no doubt. Bernie is the best bet to get Trump out.
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Quote from: greg on January 24, 2020, 07:48:08 AM
This seems to be what I'm seeing also.

Bernie could possibly be the nominee. But I've seen that Trump has 34% of the black support now? If it turned out to be the case then there's no stopping him.

Some polls show Trump's job approval rating among blacks to be as high as 34 %, but that doesn't mean 34 % of blacks will vote for Trump. I have seen articles saying 85 % of the blacks support ANY democrat nominee against Trump.
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