And They're Off! The Democratic Candidates for 2020

[greg]

Some polls show Trump's job approval rating among blacks to be as high as 34 %, but that doesn't mean 34 % of blacks will vote for Trump. I have seen articles saying 85 % of the blacks support ANY democrat nominee against Trump.

I think the solution then is for Trump to run as a democrat so he can get 119% of the black vote.

[Karl Henning]

For long the corporate media did not believe in Bernie's chances (read: They acted like Bernie doesn't have a chance to make people think Bernie is done), but lately they have been forced to acknowledge the fact that Bernie is one of the strongest candidates in the race.

Your brush is too broad, no doubt out of habit; a lot of people, in the general electorate as well as journalists, are doubtful of Bernie's chances in a general election; your assertion that this sentriment is spoonfed to a sheeple populace by "corporate media" is tissue-thin.

Everyone from the outset (yes, everyone, including journalists, acknowledged Bernie as a strong candidate simply by virtue of his strong 2016 campaign.

[Karl Henning]

I think the solution then is for Trump to run as a democrat so he can get 119% of the black vote.

Do you suppose there's a chance he'll try? 

[71 dB]

I think the solution then is for Trump to run as a democrat so he can get 119% of the black vote.

Hahah, I think 119 % of Dems are needed in the Senate to impeach Trump...

[JBS]

No, you are wrong. The US has mediocre healthcare outcomes. It's not better than elsewhere. You have been lied to. Sure, for the megarich US healthcare is brilliant, since with money you can get excellent care, but for regular people that's not the case. For most Americans the US healthcare system is the worst among developped countries.

If the US healthcare system was so much better instead of talking about "Bernie's bill" I would spend my time on Finnish forums demanding US model to Finland, but the evidence speaks for the contrary. You have never explained what is this coverage YOU have thanks to private insurance single payer healthcare wouldn't give you. If there is anything it's things like nosejobs, things that people don't need to stay alive and healthy. Bernie's Bill allows private insurance for nosejobs and other vanity things not covered publicly so don't be afraid.

I suggest you start thinking why some people lie or say the things they say. What is their motive? Why am I supporting Medicare for all? It's because the overwhelming evidence shows for profit healthcare to be a disaster. It's totally insane millions of people don't have access to basic healthcare in the richest country in the World. It's insane thousands of families are driven to bankruptcies because a family member got cancer. These problems can be fixed and it saves money. You say you know corporate media lies, but why do you believe their narrative and smears? You clearly don't believe left-wing media and I don't know how to make you trust them more, but maybe you should believe nobody? Do your own research.

You seem not to have actually understood  what I wrote. Among other things, I said I think all segments of the media distort and manipulate. I don't believe anyone in the media.

Nor did I say that the current system is good. I said most people with private insurance have relatively good healthcare. The people with problems are the  ones with no insurance, and those already in public plans (Medicaid and Medicare). Single payer would force everyone down to the level of those on public plans. In other words, 100 million people or so would get worse health care in the name of providing less than adequate care to the 30 million who don't have it now. My coverage now is not fantastic (an Obamacare plan) but it gives me what I need, and Medicare for All would provide me nothing better.  So why should I support it?
A Biden type plan would via the public option get those 30 million people  coverage without degrading the quality of care of others.

[JBS]

Bradley effect? Bernie is non-white now? Who does Bradley effect favor in this election and why?

Right wing Americans distrust the media. Some will lie to pollsters for the sake of misleading the media. Others just don't want to admit that they are conservatives to strangers because they don't want to be called racists, bigots, and ignoramuses. Or they may want strangers to think they are "woke" even when they are not.  The net effect is that poll results might be slightly distorted against Trump.  By its nature, the phenomenon is not  amenable to measurement.

[71 dB]

You seem not to have actually understood  what I wrote. Among other things, I said I think all segments of the media distort and manipulate. I don't believe anyone in the media.

I don't think that's a good place to be. Good people exists. It is about knowing who they are. I'm amazed how poor media literacy many people have.

Nor did I say that the current system is good. I said most people with private insurance have relatively good healthcare.

Relatively good compared to what? Yeah, at least most people in the US have healthcare, but things could be better. As far as I know the care itself is on the same level as it is in other developped countries unless you are megarich in which case you can buy top quality care. That's not the problem. The problem is how the healthcare system is financed. Single payer healthcare addresses this problematic aspect of the US system.

The people with problems are the  ones with no insurance,.

Those people would be covered by now if free market for profit healthcare system really worked, but it just doesn't work! Use the capitalistic free market model where it work (smartphones, cars, clothes, furnitures, restaurants etc.) and more socialistic models where they work better (education, healthcare, fire department, libraries...). Even public option healthcare would leave a few million people without healthcare. Single payer is the way to get everyone covered cost-effectively.

and those already in public plans (Medicaid and Medicare) Single payer would force everyone down to the level of those on public plans.

Those public plans are underfunded because there is not political will to fund them properly. Trump has cut those programs to give tax cuts to the top 1 %. Also, Medicaid and Medicare are much better than the alternative, no healthcare because you can't afford it. The US system is so fuck'ed up even the public programs seems to suck compared to other countries. Same with the education. In Finland public education system rank one of the best in the World while in the US greedy idiots like Betsy de Vos destroy public education to enrich the top 1 % including herself even more. Yeah, if you take the money away, eventually any system will fail. That's why big change is needed = Bernie Sanders. The US needs to learn that some things are just better done publicly and it pays off to fund them properly (meaning the rich need to pay more taxes).

In other words, 100 million people or so would get worse health care in the name of providing less than adequate care to the 30 million who don't have it now. My coverage now is not fantastic (an Obamacare plan) but it gives me what I need, and Medicare for All would provide me nothing better.  So why should I support it?
A Biden type plan would via the public option get those 30 million people  coverage without degrading the quality of care of others.

That's not Bernie's plan. Bernie is not degrading anyones care. Changing the way things are financed doesn't change doctors. They are as good as before. In fact those doctors have more time with the patients because the byrocracy with insurance companies stops. So, the care is likely to be even better. Bernie's plan covers primary and preventive care, mental health care, reproductive care, vision, hearing and dental care, and prescription drugs, as well as long-term services for the disabled and elderly. Does your "not fantastic" plan cover all of this? Does it cover something not listed here? Even if Bernie's plan would not provide anything better, it would most probably be much cheaper for you. That's a good reason to support it. Also, as a human being you should be for everyone being covered. That's just common decency. Bernie's plan makes that possible. Everyone covered, you save money, you can see any doctor (more choice) and the price to pay is Aetna CEOs can't buy so many yacths! Isn't that a great deal?

Biden's plan would not really lower what you pay and some people would still be without coverage, althou much less than now. Biden's public option is certainly an improvement to the current system, but Bernie's plan is much bigger improvement. Biden's plan protects insurance companies and Big Pharma (that's the point) and therefor keeps costs up. It also leads to cherry-picking where insurance companies serve the healthy people making tons of profit while sending sick people to the public sector causing insane costs so the system is in danger of collapse. In single payer system everyone is in the same risk pool. The costs of sick people are balanced out by the healthy people.

[71 dB]

Right wing Americans distrust the media. Some will lie to pollsters for the sake of misleading the media. Others just don't want to admit that they are conservatives to strangers because they don't want to be called racists, bigots, and ignoramuses. Or they may want strangers to think they are "woke" even when they are not.  The net effect is that poll results might be slightly distorted against Trump.  By its nature, the phenomenon is not  amenable to measurement.

If the poll results might be slightly distorted against Trump, it means any Democratic candidate is in a worse place against Trump. Say this distortion is 5 % pts. You want candidates who are AT LEAST 5 % pts ahead of Trump in the polls. Bernie is one of those candidates having a solid lead of about 8 % pts in the polls. Only Biden has had similar lead in the polls, but I think people overestimate Biden because in the past he has been a strong debater and some people count on that, but Biden is clearly deteriorating mentally and his ability to debate is not what it used to be. He is not coherent anymore. I fear he is actually vulnerable against Trump. Biden's high position in the polls has been due to two factors:

1) Default support - Especially older somewhat politically ignorant people remember the "good" Obama years and think Biden as Obama's VP is the ticket back to that, days of civility when the biggest scandal was the president wearing a tan jacket.
2) Myth of electability - The corporate media has created this myth so that people would support Biden because he is the best chance to beat Trump, but this is just a corporate lie! It is not based on facts. Biden is not more electable than Bernie, on the contrary probably less electable for the reasons I mentioned above. If/when people realize this the support for Biden will drop dramatically.

Biden's support is weak support and is based on these two things, ignorance combined with nostalgy and name recognition and the corporate myth of electability. Bernie's support is much stronger support. It is based on the policies and the fact that you can trust Bernie who has been saying the same things for half a century now. Bernie's electability is underestimated in the corporate media. Bernie's populism resonates with the two time Obama voters who voted for Trump. Bernie can get those people back. Bernie is especially strong in the Rust Belt which is exactly the place to be strong to beat Trump. Bernie can excite people to vote. He can get the votes of independents. He is simply the best pet to get rid of Trump no matter how much the corporate media tries to fight against it. The top 1 % rather have 4 more years of Trump giving them tax cuts than a "socialist" raising their taxes. This is class war. The top 1 % against the 99 %. Bernie is on the side of the 99 % and that's why he can win.

Many Americans are socially conservative (e.g. against gay marriage), but economically progressive (e.g. raising minimum wage) while not knowing labels well. They don't realize their positions on econimic issues are actually quite left-leaning. They say they are right-leaning, but if you ask them if they support raising minimum wage they are for it and that's NOT a right-wing position! In some polls over 50 % of Republican voters have been for medicare for all. Again, not a right-wing position at all. This is because Republican voters also suffer from the sick healthcare system. However, since Republican voters follow more right wing media  they are exposed to more fearmongering of Medicare for all and that's why the support is significantly lower than among Democratic voters (in some polls 85 %). If the corporate media didn't fearmonger and lie about medicare for all and instead gave precise information about it, the support for mediacare for all among Americans would be in the range of 90-100 %. 95 % perhaps?

[JBS]

I don't think that's a good place to be. Good people exists. It is about knowing who they are. I'm amazed how poor media literacy many people have.

Relatively good compared to what? Yeah, at least most people in the US have healthcare, but things could be better. As far as I know the care itself is on the same level as it is in other developped countries unless you are megarich in which case you can buy top quality care. That's not the problem. The problem is how the healthcare system is financed. Single payer healthcare addresses this problematic aspect of the US system.

Those people would be covered by now if free market for profit healthcare system really worked, but it just doesn't work! Use the capitalistic free market model where it work (smartphones, cars, clothes, furnitures, restaurants etc.) and more socialistic models where they work better (education, healthcare, fire department, libraries...). Even public option healthcare would leave a few million people without healthcare. Single payer is the way to get everyone covered cost-effectively.

Those public plans are underfunded because there is not political will to fund them properly. Trump has cut those programs to give tax cuts to the top 1 %. Also, Medicaid and Medicare are much better than the alternative, no healthcare because you can't afford it. The US system is so fuck'ed up even the public programs seems to suck compared to other countries. Same with the education. In Finland public education system rank one of the best in the World while in the US greedy idiots like Betsy de Vos destroy public education to enrich the top 1 % including herself even more. Yeah, if you take the money away, eventually any system will fail. That's why big change is needed = Bernie Sanders. The US needs to learn that some things are just better done publicly and it pays off to fund them properly (meaning the rich need to pay more taxes).

That's not Bernie's plan. Bernie is not degrading anyones care. Changing the way things are financed doesn't change doctors. They are as good as before. In fact those doctors have more time with the patients because the byrocracy with insurance companies stops. So, the care is likely to be even better. Bernie's plan covers primary and preventive care, mental health care, reproductive care, vision, hearing and dental care, and prescription drugs, as well as long-term services for the disabled and elderly. Does your "not fantastic" plan cover all of this? Does it cover something not listed here? Even if Bernie's plan would not provide anything better, it would most probably be much cheaper for you. That's a good reason to support it. Also, as a human being you should be for everyone being covered. That's just common decency. Bernie's plan makes that possible. Everyone covered, you save money, you can see any doctor (more choice) and the price to pay is Aetna CEOs can't buy so many yacths! Isn't that a great deal?

Biden's plan would not really lower what you pay and some people would still be without coverage, althou much less than now. Biden's public option is certainly an improvement to the current system, but Bernie's plan is much bigger improvement. Biden's plan protects insurance companies and Big Pharma (that's the point) and therefor keeps costs up. It also leads to cherry-picking where insurance companies serve the healthy people making tons of profit while sending sick people to the public sector causing insane costs so the system is in danger of collapse. In single payer system everyone is in the same risk pool. The costs of sick people are balanced out by the healthy people.

If MfA ever gets to be law, it will be something that Congress makes law, not Bernie. Which means the reality will have nothing to do with Bernie's plan.  The reality will simply be an expansion of the Medicare system we have now, with all its bureaucracy, corruption, and bad health outcomes. Doctors will spend less time with patients because they'll need to make up for lower fees per patient. The reality will also be that everyone's taxes will go up, not just the rich.

That is not something I got from the corporate media. That's something I learn from being a patient in the US health care.

Biden's plan has the merit of not forcing people into a substandard system if they have other options.

And of course,

Those public plans are underfunded because there is not political will to fund them properly

Will be even more true of Medicare for All.

[JBS]

If the poll results might be slightly distorted against Trump, it means any Democratic candidate is in a worse place against Trump. Say this distortion is 5 % pts. You want candidates who are AT LEAST 5 % pts ahead of Trump in the polls. Bernie is one of those candidates having a solid lead of about 8 % pts in the polls. Only Biden has had similar lead in the polls, but I think people overestimate Biden because in the past he has been a strong debater and some people count on that, but Biden is clearly deteriorating mentally and his ability to debate is not what it used to be. He is not coherent anymore. I fear he is actually vulnerable against Trump. Biden's high position in the polls has been due to two factors:

1) Default support - Especially older somewhat politically ignorant people remember the "good" Obama years and think Biden as Obama's VP is the ticket back to that, days of civility when the biggest scandal was the president wearing a tan jacket.
2) Myth of electability - The corporate media has created this myth so that people would support Biden because he is the best chance to beat Trump, but this is just a corporate lie! It is not based on facts. Biden is not more electable than Bernie, on the contrary probably less electable for the reasons I mentioned above. If/when people realize this the support for Biden will drop dramatically.

Biden's support is weak support and is based on these two things, ignorance combined with nostalgy and name recognition and the corporate myth of electability. Bernie's support is much stronger support. It is based on the policies and the fact that you can trust Bernie who has been saying the same things for half a century now. Bernie's electability is underestimated in the corporate media. Bernie's populism resonates with the two time Obama voters who voted for Trump. Bernie can get those people back. Bernie is especially strong in the Rust Belt which is exactly the place to be strong to beat Trump. Bernie can excite people to vote. He can get the votes of independents. He is simply the best pet to get rid of Trump no matter how much the corporate media tries to fight against it. The top 1 % rather have 4 more years of Trump giving them tax cuts than a "socialist" raising their taxes. This is class war. The top 1 % against the 99 %. Bernie is on the side of the 99 % and that's why he can win.

Many Americans are socially conservative (e.g. against gay marriage), but economically progressive (e.g. raising minimum wage) while not knowing labels well. They don't realize their positions on econimic issues are actually quite left-leaning. They say they are right-leaning, but if you ask them if they support raising minimum wage they are for it and that's NOT a right-wing position! In some polls over 50 % of Republican voters have been for medicare for all. Again, not a right-wing position at all. This is because Republican voters also suffer from the sick healthcare system. However, since Republican voters follow more right wing media  they are exposed to more fearmongering of Medicare for all and that's why the support is significantly lower than among Democratic voters (in some polls 85 %). If the corporate media didn't fearmonger and lie about medicare for all and instead gave precise information about it, the support for mediacare for all among Americans would be in the range of 90-100 %. 95 % perhaps?

Bernie's electability and Biden's mental deterioration are myths propagated by leftist media. The Biden myth is supported by right wing media for its own reasons.

Corporate media actually leans left compared to the American mainstream, btw.

[71 dB]

Bernie's electability and Biden's mental deterioration are myths propagated by leftist media. The Biden myth is supported by right wing media for its own reasons.

Have you watched Biden's campaigning at all? His mental deterioration is quite clear and not a leftist myth.

Corporate media actually leans left compared to the American mainstream, btw.

I believe that the day Bernie drops behind Yang and Gabbard in the polls. Perhaps your social circles are right wing and you are clueless about the masses?

[JBS]

Have you watched Biden's campaigning at all? His mental deterioration is quite clear and not a leftist myth.

I have. Biden 2020's mental acuity is about the same as Biden 2010, Biden 2000, etc. [I suspect you think his abilities as a debater and campaigner were better than what they actually were.]

I believe that the day Bernie drops behing Yang and Gabbard in the polls. Perhaps your social circles are right wing and you are clueless about the masses?

The polls right now are the state of the Democratic race, so they don't reflect Independent and disaffected voters. Bernie being popular among Democrats does not mean he is popular among everyone else. And his popularity comes from being the guy who ran against Hillary in the primaries. Name recognition.
My social circles, so called, are my coworkers, who favor Biden because they think he's the best one to beat Trump.

[Karl Henning]

Poju, do you have even the least sense of how narcissistically arrogant "perhaps you're clueless" is?

Do you even listen to your sorry self?

[71 dB]

I have. Biden 2020's mental acuity is about the same as Biden 2010, Biden 2000, etc. [I suspect you think his abilities as a debater and campaigner were better than what they actually were.]The polls right now are the state of the Democratic race, so they don't reflect Independent and disaffected voters. Bernie being popular among Democrats does not mean he is popular among everyone else. And his popularity comes from being the guy who ran against Hillary in the primaries. Name recognition.
My social circles, so called, are my coworkers, who favor Biden because they think he's the best one to beat Trump.

So, Biden has always been like this? You want THAT man against Trump? Oh boy! 

https://www.youtube.com/v/mvCxJGOkfKo

Yes, Bernie has good name recognition now, much stronger than in 2016. That's why he is even stronger now.

Your coworkers believe the corporate media myth and they should read articles like this:

https://www.pressenza.com/2020/01/cnn-sanders-is-the-most-electable/

[71 dB]

Poju, do you have even the least sense of how narcissistically arrogant "perhaps you're clueless" is?

Do you even listen to your sorry self?

I know, this is the downside of being supereducated by Kyle Kulinski. This level of frustration caused by the ignorance of other people is likely to make anyone arrogant. 

Kyle Kulinski has this talent of explaining these things patiently and respectfully over and over to other people, but I am not Kyle Kulinski. I am just a dude from Finland interested of US politics...

[71 dB]

The 159,000-member American College of Physicians, second largest physicians group in US Has new prescription: It's Medicare for All

"Major changes are needed to a system that costs too much, leaves too many behind, and delivers too little."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/20/historic-shift-second-largest-physicians-group-us-has-new-prescription-its-medicare

[JBS]

The 159,000-member American College of Physicians, second largest physicians group in US Has new prescription: It's Medicare for All

"Major changes are needed to a system that costs too much, leaves too many behind, and delivers too little."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/20/historic-shift-second-largest-physicians-group-us-has-new-prescription-its-medicare

Of course they might want MfA. MfA will benefit them, it will benefit Big Pharma, it will benefit the big hospital corporations, etc. It will also benefit the 1% by increasing their hold on government. It won't benefit most individual Americans.

You seem not to understand the central flaw of all ideas that call for increased governmental action or bigger government programs. 

Anything that makes more government involvement makes more corruption inevitable because the financial stakes involved in government decisions are greater.  The connections among corporations and politicians and regulators grow because the corporations have more reason to influence government.  If you want less corruption, you have to make government decisions less important, not more.

[JBS]

So, Biden has always been like this? You want THAT man against Trump? Oh boy! 

https://www.youtube.com/v/mvCxJGOkfKo

Yes, Bernie has good name recognition now, much stronger than in 2016. That's why he is even stronger now.

Your coworkers believe the corporate media myth and they should read articles like this:

https://www.pressenza.com/2020/01/cnn-sanders-is-the-most-electable/

You link to an article that openly shills for Bernie, and yet can't help reporting the fact that Bernie is less electable.

[Mirror Image]

Bernie Sanders couldn't get elected dog catcher, why would his ego allow him to believe otherwise? The reality is the Democratic Party's problem is they've made their entire platform since Trump took office to oust him from said office. What have they offered the American people during Trump's term other than complaining that Trump's the president? Free healthcare is a nice idea until you start looking at how it will actually affect the United States' current medical system. Also the idea of having to pay higher taxes then we already pay will certainly be a difficult pill to swallow for middle class America.

[JBS]

Some very recent polling.

Saturday, January 25
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)   Poll   Results   Spread
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus   NY Times/Siena   Biden 17, Sanders 25, Buttigieg 18, Warren 15, Klobuchar 8, Yang 3, Booker, Steyer 3, Gabbard 1, Bloomberg 1   Sanders +7

Missouri Democratic Primary   Missouri Scout   Biden 39, Bloomberg 14, Warren 9, Klobuchar 8, Sanders 7, Buttigieg 6, Yang 2, Steyer 1   Biden +25

Iowa: Trump vs. Biden   NY Times/Siena   Trump 46, Biden 44   Trump +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders   NY Times/Siena   Trump 48, Sanders 42   Trump +6
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren   NY Times/Siena   Trump 47, Warren 42   Trump +5
Iowa: Trump vs. Buttigieg   NY Times/Siena   Trump 45, Buttigieg 44   Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Bloomberg   NY Times/Siena   Trump 47, Bloomberg 39   Trump +8

Iowa is the sort of state Democrats need to win.  Yet Trump leads them...but the gap is narrowest against the moderates.
And poor Missouri: Bernie can't even get out of single digits there.