And They're Off! The Democratic Candidates for 2020

[Karl Henning]

Joe Biden Just Performed a Miracle

"It was as if the meteoric and historic rise of Pete Buttigieg, who led in the delegate count after Iowa and New Hampshire, had never happened. It was as if the Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar moments, not to mention the longer stretch during which Warren was ascendant, had been hallucinations.

It was almost — almost — as if Bloomberg hadn't complicated the race with his wall-to-wall television commercials, funded by his personal Fort Knox.


All of that receded as Biden and Sanders took center stage. Each focused on the other in dueling remarks on Tuesday night. Sanders used his to bash Biden's record, portraying him as a foreign-policy hawk, a pawn of billionaires and a tool of the financial industry.

Biden returned fire. "We want a nominee who will beat Donald Trump but also keep Nancy Pelosi as the speaker of the House and win back the United States Senate," Biden said. "We've got to beat Donald Trump, and we will, but we can't become like him." He didn't mention Sanders. He didn't have to."

[Karl Henning]

Crucially, Biden also won Texas in a close race; ABC News finally called the state at 2 a.m. Eastern as Biden held a 33-percent-to-29-percent lead over Sanders. Texas was the most up-in-the-air state in our forecast, so it was always going to be a bellwether for who was having a good night on Tuesday. Of course, the fact that it is worth the second-most delegates of any state doesn't hurt either.

But Biden's most impressive wins came in Massachusetts and Minnesota, where Sanders entered Super Tuesday as a slight favorite — and Biden wasn't even the most likely candidate to upset him. Per our forecast, Biden had only a 1 in 5 chance of carrying each state, and yet he won Massachusetts by 7 points and Minnesota by a daunting 9. Both wins showed Biden's ability to expand his coalition outside his usual comfort zone. Minnesota is a state that has relatively few voters of color (a key part of Biden's base) and that Sanders won by 23 points in 2016. But the last-minute endorsement of Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who dropped out of the race to support Biden, was apparently very influential. And in Massachusetts, Biden effectively kneecapped home-state Sen. Elizabeth Warren by usurping her former base of college-educated whites; Biden carried the upper-class suburbs that ring Boston.

So far, the only states that Sanders is projected or likely to win are three Western states — California, Colorado and Utah — plus Vermont. Sanders was never in danger of losing his home state (he had a greater than 99 percent chance to win Vermont, according to our forecast), and he may have been saved in the West by the fact that all three states vote primarily by mail (and therefore cast many of their ballots before this week, when Biden experienced a surge of endorsements and popular support). According to exit polls, voters who made up their mind on whom to vote for within the last few days broke heavily for Biden. And even in states like North Carolina, Biden did merely OK among early voters but cleaned up among Election Day voters.

Finally, there are a couple states where we still don't have conclusive results. As of Wednesday morning, Maine was still too close to call, although that in and of itself is a win for Biden; we gave him only a 1 in 4 chance of carrying the state entering the night. And although some outlets (though not our colleagues at ABC News) have called California for Sanders, the results there are still very preliminary, since mail-in ballots can arrive as late as Friday and still be counted. Given that California is worth 415 pledged delegates, the exact, final results there could make a big difference to each candidate's delegate math. Indeed, with plenty of votes still to be counted in Colorado, Maine and Utah as well, the final national delegate totals probably won't be clear for several days.

Read the whole thing

[Karl Henning]

They seem to use the word with a finer-bristled brush than our Poju:

A bad day for oligarchy, a good day for Joe Biden.

[Florestan]

Super Tuesday (super Thursday for dementia Biden) was a huge disappointment! If this continue, Biden wins the nomination, loses to Trump and the US becomes TOTAL shithole country. I had hope, but I might have been naive. Bernie can still win, if miracles happen, but I'm affraid this process kills all my hope. I will be just an ultracynical person with VERY LITTLE reason to live. You can dislike and belittle me all you want, but don't be surprise if you don't see joy in me. The world killed it in me.

Making your joy dependent on Bernie's becoming POTUS was the worst decision of your life anyway. The best thing for you to do now is to forget the whole damn thing and concentrate on creating a life of your own centered around those things that you really enjoy (no, following US politics doesn't qualify).

[Karl Henning]

Super Tuesday (super Thursday for dementia Biden)

If all you've got is self-pity and juvenile Trumpian nicknames, you should leave this thread to grown-ups.

[Florestan]

If all you've got is self-pity and juvenile Trumpian nicknames, you should leave this thread to grown-ups.

Fixed.

[Karl Henning]

Fixed.

Well, all right.  Although, the unexamined life, you know.

[Ratliff]

One thing we can see clearly is that having the primary process start with an obsession with Iowa is idiotic.

[Mirror Image]

If all you've got is self-pity and juvenile Trumpian nicknames, you should leave this thread to grown-ups.

He really should see if he can't get an ongoing appointment with a clinical psychologist. I say this not with the intent to be mean, but with the intent of hoping he seeks help.

[Florestan]

He really should see if he can't get an ongoing appointment with a clinical psychologist. I say this not with the intent to be mean, but with the intent of hoping he seeks help.

Agreed 100%. The sooner the better.

[JBS]

Super Tuesday (super Thursday for dementia Biden) was a huge disappointment! If this continue, Biden wins the nomination, loses to Trump and the US becomes TOTAL shithole country. I had hope, but I might have been naive. Bernie can still win, if miracles happen, but I'm affraid this process kills all my hope. I will be just an ultracynical person with VERY LITTLE reason to live. You can dislike and belittle me all you want, but don't be surprise if you don't see joy in me. The world killed it in me.

The fact that American voters, using their own minds, have ideas different from yours about  Biden and Sanders, should not depress you one jot or tittle.  Democrats are choosing who they think is the best candidate against Trump.   That should please you, not dishearten you. A free thinker is supposed to want people to think for themselves.

[71 dB]

He really should see if he can't get an ongoing appointment with a clinical psychologist. I say this not with the intent to be mean, but with the intent of hoping he seeks help.

I have exchanged emails with a psychologist today. In Finland this kind of help is "free" thanks to "socialism" 

Joe Biden Just Performed a Miracle

The miracle was the whole establishment getting behind Biden in desperation to stop Bernie + SNAKE Warren splitting progressive votes. Biden needs another miracle against Trump.

[Florestan]

Well, all right.  Although, the unexamined life, you know.

He needs professional examination of his life. It's obvious that self-scrutiny is of no help.

[Florestan]

I have exchanged emails with a psychologist today. In Finland this kind of help is "free" thanks to "socialism" 

Excellent news. When is the first appointment?

[71 dB]

The fact that American voters, using their own minds, have ideas different from yours about  Biden and Sanders, should not depress you one jot or tittle.  Democrats are choosing who they think is the best candidate against Trump.   That should please you, not dishearten you. A free thinker is supposed to want people to think for themselves.

I totally agree, except the bias in corporate media against Bernie. People are misled to vote against the own best.

[71 dB]

Excellent news. When is the first appointment?

The first appointment was in January. The next is in about 3 weeks.

[Karl Henning]

The fact that American voters, using their own minds, have ideas different from yours about  Biden and Sanders, should not depress you one jot or tittle.  Democrats are choosing who they think is the best candidate against Trump.   That should please you, not dishearten you. A free thinker is supposed to want people to think for themselves.

Truly.

[Karl Henning]

Bloomberg has bowed out.

[greg]

Bloomberg has bowed out.

That's good. Screw that guy.

[BasilValentine]

I haven't been a Bernie supporter (Warren would be my first choice)  but I heard a bit of analysis by an unidentified (by me, because I was doing other things and not fully focused) voice on NPR that gave me pause on the whole electability issue. The voice was challenging the received wisdom that Biden is more likely than Bernie to win the support of so-called "swing voters." The thesis was that there are in fact two species of swing voter, the garden variety who voted for Obama in 08 and 12 but for Trump in 16, and the other kind, those who in 16 supported Bernie and then failed to vote altogether or who supported third party candidates in preference to Hillary. It was claimed that the garden variety are 70% Republican leaning in their views and far less persuadable than the other kind, who lean left by the same amount. The conclusion was to suggest that Bernie actually had (or has?) more swing voters in hand than Biden. For what it's worth.

As for Biden's mental health, I must say that seeing his performance in the debates and in other public venues of late, I was concerned that he has lost several steps and might be in decline. I hope it's just a situational problem of stress and fatigue because, obviously, even a senile Biden is preferable to the current infestation.