And They're Off! The Democratic Candidates for 2020

[SimonNZ]

groan...

All posting Kyle videos does is demonstrate yet again how bad Kyle is.

"The only reason Warren would have to attack Bernie is to help Biden. So what was it Biden offered her? Was it the VP slot?"

[drogulus]

     When Iran Took Americans Hostage, Bernie Backed Iran's Defenders

Sanders would like the public to believe, as an AP story put it, that "democratic socialism [is] the economic philosophy that has guided his political career." But that has not always been the case. In 1977, he left the tiny left-wing Liberty Union Party of Vermont that he'd co-founded, and in 1980 instead aligned himself with the Socialist Workers Party (SWP), the self-proclaimed Trotskyist revolutionary party, became its presidential elector in Vermont, and campaigned for its candidates and platform that defended the Iranian hostage seizure. 

The preeminent democratic socialist of the time, Michael Harrington, wrote that the hostage taking was "terribly wrong," and that "the original evil was compounded by the psychological and physical brutalization to which at least some of the hostages were subjected. The moral stance of those who denounce such acts is clear and compelling."

Far from denouncing the acts, Sanders stood with those who applauded the hostage taking.

[JBS]

I believe Bloomberg has used $200 million on tv adds by now and is ready to spend a billion. The question is how high would he poll if he only had used as much money on tv adds then say Klobuchar?

Can someone tell me what Bloomberg brings on the table? He has been for raising minimum wage now that he is running for president, but then again he did block minimum wage increase as New York governor so how much can we trust him on this? Has he genuinely changed his mind or do he just be the president?

If it takes hundreds of millions of dollars to become a president it excludes almost all people from the possibility to be the president no matter how good policy ideas you have or how talented you are. I see a problem here, but I know most people are fine with all of this.

Minor correction
Bloomberg was mayor of New York City, not governor.

Bloomberg's progressive credentials rest on one thing that make him anathema to the GOP: his vigorous advocacy of gun control.

[JBS]

I do also do directly. Before I discovered the likes ot TYT corporate media was I saw.

Mention just one example.

Having your honeymoon in Moscow at that time is something no average American would do.

There is one factor working against Sanders that probably hasn't been thought of by the Young Turks. They may not even be aware of it. (It also applies to Bloomberg, btw.) Sanders is completely non observant, but he is Jewish.  There is a considerable reservoir of  anti-Semitism among American blacks.  It's low level, and usually stays below the surface. But it's there, as evidenced by the two most recent incidents of homicidal anti-Semitism in Jersey City and Monsey (and by a steady flow of antiSemitic violence on individual Jews by individual POC , particularly in the New York City area that tends to fly under the national media's radar).  It's therefore reasonable to think that many blacks won't feel motivated to vote for "the Jewish guy" as much as they would for a similar individual who was not Jewish.  Which means Bernie will get less votes among blacks than the Young Turks think he will. (They won't vote for Trump. They simply won't bother to vote.)

The overt white anti Semites are already in Trump's camp, of course.

[71 dB]

Having your honeymoon in Moscow at that time is something no average American would do.

Bernie Sanders isn't your average American. He is an exraordinary man. Anyway, to give context to the "Honeymoon in Moscow":

The trip took place while Sanders was mayor of Burlington, Vt., from 1981 to 1989. Toward the end of his mayoral tenure, the small city on Lake Champlain launched a sister-city program with Yaroslavl, located 160 miles northeast of Moscow. Bernie Sanders and his wife did travel to Yaroslavl, a city in the Soviet Union, after their wedding in 1988. In the sense that the trip came after the couple were married*, the trip was a honeymoon. The two have also referred to the trip that way, albeit sarcastically at times. The trip's primary purpose was diplomacy, not leisure, and included about 10 extra guests.

* Their wedding date was set to coincide with that trip because they didn't want to take more time off."

There is one factor working against Sanders that probably hasn't been thought of by the Young Turks. They may not even be aware of it. (It also applies to Bloomberg, btw.) Sanders is completely non observant, but he is Jewish.  There is a considerable reservoir of  anti-Semitism among American blacks.  It's low level, and usually stays below the surface. But it's there, as evidenced by the two most recent incidents of homicidal anti-Semitism in Jersey City and Monsey (and by a steady flow of antiSemitic violence on individual Jews by individual POC , particularly in the New York City area that tends to fly under the national media's radar).  It's therefore reasonable to think that many blacks won't feel motivated to vote for "the Jewish guy" as much as they would for a similar individual who was not Jewish.  Which means Bernie will get less votes among blacks than the Young Turks think he will. (They won't vote for Trump. They simply won't bother to vote.)

The overt white anti Semites are already in Trump's camp, of course.

That doesn't work as an example of Bernie having been on the wrong side of history, but it works as an example that you are willing to play identity politics. Yes, Bernie Sanders will never have 100 % of the votes, not even 75 %, but he doesn't need to. He needs to win the electorate. Bernie Sanders is overhelmingly popular among young voters under 40 while Biden's support is among older voters and that's true also among black voters.

Fully 56% of African-Americans said they'd "consider voting for" Sanders in 2020 — a statistical tie with the 54% who said the same about former Vice President Joe Biden and significantly higher than any other candidate.

Only 23% of African-Americans said they wouldn't consider voting for Sanders, about the same number as the 24% who said they wouldn't consider voting for Biden.

VICE News-Ipsos poll

So, Biden is not better off when it comes to black voters. Maybe Biden would get less votes than you think?

[JBS]

Bernie Sanders isn't your average American. He is an exraordinary man. Anyway, to give context to the "Honeymoon in Moscow":

The trip took place while Sanders was mayor of Burlington, Vt., from 1981 to 1989. Toward the end of his mayoral tenure, the small city on Lake Champlain launched a sister-city program with Yaroslavl, located 160 miles northeast of Moscow. Bernie Sanders and his wife did travel to Yaroslavl, a city in the Soviet Union, after their wedding in 1988. In the sense that the trip came after the couple were married*, the trip was a honeymoon. The two have also referred to the trip that way, albeit sarcastically at times. The trip's primary purpose was diplomacy, not leisure, and included about 10 extra guests.

* Their wedding date was set to coincide with that trip because they didn't want to take more time off."

That doesn't work as an example of Bernie having been on the wrong side of history, but it works as an example that you are willing to play identity politics. Yes, Bernie Sanders will never have 100 % of the votes, not even 75 %, but he doesn't need to. He needs to win the electorate. Bernie Sanders is overhelmingly popular among young voters under 40 while Biden's support is among older voters and that's true also among black voters.

Fully 56% of African-Americans said they'd "consider voting for" Sanders in 2020 — a statistical tie with the 54% who said the same about former Vice President Joe Biden and significantly higher than any other candidate.

Only 23% of African-Americans said they wouldn't consider voting for Sanders, about the same number as the 24% who said they wouldn't consider voting for Biden.

VICE News-Ipsos poll

So, Biden is not better off when it comes to black voters. Maybe Biden would get less votes than you think?

First, that's an online poll, so it's of dubious value.
Second, 89% of the black vote in 2016 went to Hillary, while 59% of blacks voted that year. Which means, if thar poll is valid, neither Biden nor Sanders are doing any better, possibly worse, than Hillary among blacks. Meaning Trump gets re-elected.

[71 dB]

First, that's an online poll, so it's of dubious value.

You mean to you the numbers look too good for Bernard Sanders? If the poll is dubious, in which direction? Do you only believe polls that are bad for progressives?

[André]

The black vote is that of a very different constituency. What Jeffrey says about it also applies to Buttigieg, who is not a progressive...

[71 dB]

The black vote is that of a very different constituency. What Jeffrey says about it also applies to Buttigieg, who is not a progressive...

As far as I know Buttigieg does very poorly among the blacks. Since Iowa is one of the whitest of all states this won't hurt Buttigieg much in Iowa and I expect him to do well over there.

[71 dB]

Second, 89% of the black vote in 2016 went to Hillary, while 59% of blacks voted that year. Which means, if thar poll is valid, neither Biden nor Sanders are doing any better, possibly worse, than Hillary among blacks. Meaning Trump gets re-elected.

A lot of people don't vote for anyone. Of the 23 % who say they wouldn't consider voting for Sanders many probably wouldn't vote for Trump either and simply don't vote at all. I don't believe Hillary was better among blacks than Sanders or Biden.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/464680-poll-overwhelming-majority-of-black-voters-choose-any-given-2020-democrat-over

Poll: Overwhelming majority (85 %) of black voters back any 2020 Democrat over Trump.

[71 dB]

Fresh New Hamphire poll (7 News/Emerson College) +/- 3.8 %, Jan. 13-16.

Bernie Sanders 23 %
Pete Buttigieg 18 %
Joe Biden 14 %
Elizabeth Warren 14 %
Amy Klobucher 10 %
Andrew Yang 6 %
Tulsi Gabbard 5 %
Tom Steyer 4 %

Can't wait to see corporate media report this: "No clear leader in N. H., but Klobuchar is STRONG fifth!" 

Fresh national poll (Reuters/Ipsos), post debate:

Bernie Sanders 20 %
Joe Biden 19 %
Elizabeth Warren 12 %
Michael Bloomberg 9 %
Pete Buttigieg 6 %

[SimonNZ]

here's one for you and Kyle:

Trump accuses Dems of using impeachment trial to hurt Sanders campaign

"President Donald Trump on Friday accused Democrats of trying to sabotage Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential bid, echoing allegations from Sanders supporters during the 2016 primary.

"They are rigging the election again against Bernie Sanders, just like last time, only even more obviously," Trump said in a pair of tweets, claiming that Democrats were using his impeachment trial beginning next week to keep Sanders off the campaign trail in the critical final weeks before the Iowa caucuses.

"They are bringing him out of so important Iowa in order that, as a Senator, he sit through the Impeachment Hoax Trial," he continued, using derisive nicknames to accuse House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — without evidence — of orchestrating the timing of the trial to give former Vice President Joe Biden a boost. "Crazy Nancy thereby gives the strong edge to Sleepy Joe Biden, and Bernie is shut out again. Very unfair, but that's the way the Democrats play the game. Anyway, it's a lot of fun to watch!"[...]

[ritter]

O ciel, che noia!    

[JBS]

A lot of people don't vote for anyone. Of the 23 % who say they wouldn't consider voting for Sanders many probably wouldn't vote for Trump either and simply don't vote at all. I don't believe Hillary was better among blacks than Sanders or Biden.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/464680-poll-overwhelming-majority-of-black-voters-choose-any-given-2020-democrat-over

Poll: Overwhelming majority (85 %) of black voters back any 2020 Democrat over Trump.

That's the point.  To beat Trump, Democrats need to get more votes among blacks than Hillary did, and going by these figures they aren't. Hillary got 89% of the black vote in 2016, so 85% means the Democrats are actually getting less.

[71 dB]

here's one for you and Kyle:

Trump accuses Dems of using impeachment trial to hurt Sanders campaign

"President Donald Trump on Friday accused Democrats of trying to sabotage Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential bid, echoing allegations from Sanders supporters during the 2016 primary.

"They are rigging the election again against Bernie Sanders, just like last time, only even more obviously," Trump said in a pair of tweets, claiming that Democrats were using his impeachment trial beginning next week to keep Sanders off the campaign trail in the critical final weeks before the Iowa caucuses.

"They are bringing him out of so important Iowa in order that, as a Senator, he sit through the Impeachment Hoax Trial," he continued, using derisive nicknames to accuse House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — without evidence — of orchestrating the timing of the trial to give former Vice President Joe Biden a boost. "Crazy Nancy thereby gives the strong edge to Sleepy Joe Biden, and Bernie is shut out again. Very unfair, but that's the way the Democrats play the game. Anyway, it's a lot of fun to watch!"[...]

Thanks, but what exactly am I and Kyle supposed to learn from this? 

[71 dB]

That's the point.  To beat Trump, Democrats need to get more votes among blacks than Hillary did, and going by these figures they aren't. Hillary got 89% of the black vote in 2016, so 85% means the Democrats are actually getting less.

59.6 % of blacks voted in 2016. In 2012 the turnout among blacks was record high 66.6 % (Obama-effect). We don't know yet how high percentage of blacks who actually vote will cast their vote on the Democratic candidate. I guess it varies a lot among candidates so that for example Buttigieg would mean lower black turnout than Sanders.

Democrats need black, latinos, muslims, independents,... ...Hillary didn't have too few votes (she won the popular vote by 3 million votes). She got the votes in wrong places. A little more votes in the Rust Belt would have given Hillary the victory. The Dems need a candidate who is strong in the Rust Belt. That's Bernand Sanders.

[JBS]

59.6 % of blacks voted in 2016. In 2012 the turnout among blacks was record high 66.6 % (Obama-effect). We don't know yet how high percentage of blacks who actually vote will cast their vote on the Democratic candidate. I guess it varies a lot among candidates so that for example Buttigieg would mean lower black turnout than Sanders.

Democrats need black, latinos, muslims, independents,... ...Hillary didn't have too few votes (she won the popular vote by 3 million votes). She got the votes in wrong places. A little more votes in the Rust Belt would have given Hillary the victory. The Dems need a candidate who is strong in the Rust Belt. That's Bernand Sanders.

Sanders is not that strong. "Getting progressives to be enthusiastic" is not nearly the same thing as "appealling to the general electorate". Sanders is the first. He is not the second.

[71 dB]

Sanders is not that strong.

Not that strong? At the moment he has been surging on the top of early state polls and even on national level. It seems the nomination will be a fight between Biden and Bernie (old vs young voters), but saying Bernie is not that strong given the information we have is denying the reality.

[JBS]

Not that strong? At the moment he has been surging on the top of early state polls and even on national level. It seems the nomination will be a fight between Biden and Bernie (old vs young voters), but saying Bernie is not that strong given the information we have is denying the reality.

Your confusing being strong among Democrats with being strong among the general populace. The polls you refer to relate to Democrats deciding the Democratic candidate. Among the electorate at large, Bernie is not as strong as you think he is.

And you are overlooking the most important thing. If the election in November is between Trump and Biden or another moderate, some conservatives who dislike Trump will decide Biden is moderate enough that they won't vote. If the election is between Trump and Sanders or another progressive, those people will be motivated to vote for Trump because of their hostility  to the progressive agenda.

The more moderate the Democratic candidate is, the fewer votes for Trump. The more progressive the Democratic candidate is, the more votes for Trump.

[71 dB]

Your confusing being strong among Democrats with being strong among the general populace. The polls you refer to relate to Democrats deciding the Democratic candidate. Among the electorate at large, Bernie is not as strong as you think he is.

And you are overlooking the most important thing. If the election in November is between Trump and Biden or another moderate, some conservatives who dislike Trump will decide Biden is moderate enough that they won't vote. If the election is between Trump and Sanders or another progressive, those people will be motivated to vote for Trump because of their hostility  to the progressive agenda.

The more moderate the Democratic candidate is, the fewer votes for Trump. The more progressive the Democratic candidate is, the more votes for Trump.

I think this election will teach you are lesson. Regular people are not "hostile" to the progressive agenda. The top 1 % is. The corporate media is.
Sure there will be misled people like you voting against Bernie, but there will also be people who vote because Bernie excites them. Half the country hates Trump.